CHAPTER 2: PLANNING METHODS AND TOOLS

2.1 Methods to Clarify Issues and Problems

2.2 Methods to Examine Spatial and Inter-Sectoral Relationships
2.3 Methods for Social, Environmental, and Economic Analysis
2.4 Methods to Discuss the Future

Strategic planning relies on a number of methods and tools to define and interpret information for
comparing alternatives. This chapter identifies selected planning methods according to four
purposes:

1. Methods to clarify issues and problems. - All planning teams need creativity and
analytical rigor to define problems and compare options. Several structured
techniques promote both creativity and rigor.

2. Methods to examine spatial and inter-sectoral relationships. - Strategic planning for

forests has to account for cross-cutting functional and spatial relationships. The
methods for this rely on maps and area planning, together with computer simulations
and models in regional economic geography.

3. Methods for social, environmental, and economic analysis. - Your planning team
needs to anticipate the social, environmental, and economic impacts of its proposed
goals and strategies. Several frameworks are available for this.

4. Methods to discuss the future. - Planning is about forecasting the future and
deciding how to prepare for it. Your planning team should practice and learn from
techniques of "futures analysis."

Planning tools do not have to be quantitative to be useful. Quantitative models can be important,
but they are not the only or best techniques to promote the "systems approach" in thinking about
a problem and its possible solutions. Box 6 presents criteria to help you evaluate the
appropriateness of different planning methods and tools, whether alone or in combination. Let
these criteria guide your selection.

Insufficient application of planning tools leads to disorganized thinking. The discipline of the tools
keeps the planning focused and organized. But you want the tools to serve your process, not to
control it. It is often easy to allow the tools to become ends in themselves. Especially in the
industrialized countries, some expensive efforts in forest planning have failed exactly for this
reason.

2.1 Methods to Clarify Issues and Problems

All organizations, private and public, employ a variety of methods to clarify issues and problems.
You need to develop competence in selecting these methods, and in assisting planning groups to
use them. This can be important for building up working relationships within your planning team,
with your advisory committees, and with your interest groups.

Box 6. Criteria for Evaluating the Appropriateness of Planning Tools

Criteria Appropriateness
Relevance In what ways does this method help you answer important questions and focus on key
issues?
Acceptability How well is the method developed, and to what extent is it accepted as a standard
instrument? (in your country's context)
Cost How much time and how many resources do you need to adapt and apply this method?
Data Do you have - or will you be able to generate - the data for a reliable application of the
Requirements method?
Breadth and To what extent can the method represent cultural, intrinsic, aesthetic, and other non-
Versatility market aspects of forests?
Distributional Does the method help address gains and losses:(i) across the society, and (ii) between
Aspects present and future generations?
Communications To what extent can ordinary people understand this method?
Sustainability What are the chances that you will continue to use this method (and therefore to refine
and improve it in the future)?
Source: Adapted from Nilsson-Axberg (1993), Forestry Sector and Forest Plantations Sub-Sector
Planning in South and South-East Asia, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, SIMS Report 34,
Uppsala, p. 145.

Your best sources of problem-solving tools are books, articles, and videos in management
science (see Appendix II, Part C). These are increasingly available in even the remotest places of
the world - and in an increasing number of languages. Here, we briefly mention some of the
classical methods that your planning team is most likely to need:

· Brainstorming. - Brainstorming is generally superior to conventional committee

meetings for rapid generation of creative ideas. Suppose that an improvement goal
has been defined, such as to increase the effectiveness of your agency's agroforestry
program. In brainstorming, team members make rapid suggestions on how to
achieve this. Somebody writes down all of the suggestions (e.g., on a large sheet of
paper) - even those that at first may seem strange or impractical. All ideas are
acceptable, and nobody is allowed to criticize another person's suggestion. Your aim
is to quickly produce ideas which only later will be evaluated for feasibility, cost, and
other decision criteria. In the end, you will arrive at a smaller set of proposals after
the initial ideas are modified, combined, or eliminated (Worksheet 6). Box 7
summarizes three variations of this method.

· Problem Statement Guidelines - Sometimes your improvement goals are vague and
poorly defined. You apply problem statement guidelines to sharpen the definitions of
any problem into its what, when, where, who, why, and how dimensions. Each team
member is asked to state the problem according to these guidelines. In a subsequent
step, you compare these statements to make a final problem statement acceptable to
the group as a whole (Worksheet 7).

· Strengths and Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT). - In relation to a

given goal or strategy, you want to take advantage of your strengths and
opportunities. At the same time, you have to be aware of weaknesses and threats
that will impede your progress. The SWOT framework helps you think about this in a
direct and systematic way (Worksheet 8).

· Problem Trees. - For complex issues, you systematically identify causes and effects
with the help of a problem tree. A problem tree is a diagram of boxes and arrows that
show causes at a low level, leading to effects at a higher level (Worksheet 9). The
causes are the roots of the tree, and the effects are the fruits. Your team lists different
problems, and then connects them with arrows to show linkages. You repeat this
several times until your problem tree is complete and logical. The problem tree
directs your attention to fundamental, deep-rooted explanations. Box 8 presents an
example.

· Logical Framework. - The logical framework encourages planners to specify cause-

and-effect relationships, and to explicitly state all assumptions. At the top of the
framework is a clearly defined goal. Lower levels of the framework specify the why,
what, and hew to achieve this goal (Worksheet 10). For these linkages to be
possible, the internal logic of planning must be sound, and your assumptions must be
valid. Box 9 illustrates for a strategy to reduce depletion pressures on fuelwood
supplies.

· Force-Field Analysis. - Most goals are characterized by restraining forces that hold
you back, and driving forces that push you forward. In force-field analysis, you
identify these forces, and you assess your degree of influence to control them. If you
know which forces are holding you back and which can carry you forward, then your
planning focuses on how to reduce the former and exploit the latter. You rate the
different forces for both importance and the extent of your control over them. You
concentrate your actions on the high-rated forces (Worksheet 11). An example is
presented in Box 10 for improving success in afforestation and reforestation.

· Comparison Matrix. - Frequently, you need to rank several options in a systematic

way to arrive at a single choice. The comparison matrix does this through one-by-one
comparisons, indicating how any one option (Choice A) compares with all others
(Choices B, C,...Z). You construct a frequency table which shows how many times A,
B, C, and Z are rated superior to the other options (Box 11 and Worksheet 12).
 · Role Playing. - You want members of your planning team to interpret problems and
feel emotions in the same way as your actual interest groups. The use of role playing
can be surprisingly effective for this. You assign different team members to "act" as if
they are personalities among your interest groups (Worksheet 13). Role playing is
never a substitute for genuine participation by these groups. But it can be used within
the planning team to widen perceptions, compare options, and prepare for comments
by the real personalities.

Box 7. Variations of "Brainstorming" to Generate Creative Ideas.

1. Call Out Ideas Freely in Any Order
Each person calls out as many ideas as possible in random
order. Each idea is recorded where everyone can see it.
Continue until you reach the time limit, or until nobody has
anything to add.
2. Call Out Ideas in Orderly Sequence
Each person presents an idea in turn (e.g., by going
systematically around a table). If a person has nothing to
add, the person says "pass." Continue until you reach the
time limit, or until nobody has anything to add.
3. Each Person Writes Ideas on Paper
Each person writes down as many ideas as possible on a
piece of paper. The papers are collected, and the ideas are
written where everybody can see them.
Source: Adapted from James H. Saylor, 1992, TQM Field Manual, McGraw-Hill, Inc., New York, p. 80-82.
· Advantages: Spontaneous and fast; no
restrictions.
· Disadvantages: Quiet persons may not
speak out; a few powerful persons may
dominate; the process can be chaotic if
everyone talks at the same time.
· Advantages: Everyone has the chance to
participate; it is more difficult for powerful
personalities to control the session.
· Disadvantages: People can be frustrated
while waiting for their turn.
· Advantages: All contributions are
anonymous; ideas can be recorded in an
organized way.
· Disadvantages: Creativity is lost because
persons are not able to react to the ideas
suggested by others.

Box 8. Example of a Problem Tree

Insufficient Cooperation Between NGOs and Your Forestry Agency in Policies and Actions for Forest
Conservation

Source: Adapted from FAO, 1994, Formulation of Agricultural and Rural Investment Projects: Planning
Tools, Case Studies, and Exercises, Volume 2 (Reconnaissance), Rome, Italy, Tool No. 5.

Box 9 An Example of a Logical Framework

Summary Indicators Means to Verify
Main Goal
To reduce Reduce fuelwood No. of headloads removed Rapid appraisals; spot
depletion removals from upland checks; periodic
pressures on pine forests, South surveys.
fuelwood supplies Region.
Why?
(1) To lessen (1) Fuelwood collection (1) Number of hours per week per (1) Focus groups; time
women's work; is time-consuming; woman for fuelwood collection; studies;
(2) To aid forest (2) Trees are mutilated (2) Field evidence of damaged trees (2) Walk-through spot
regeneration and and regeneration is and regenerating trees checks; forest
growth poor inventories.
What?
Fuelwood Is more Increase supply and Reduce average walking distance Interviews; time studies;
available and decrease demand per headload; fewer headloads per physical measurements
better utilized week; smaller size of headloads. (mass and volume).
How?
(1) Grow energy (1) Promote clean- (1) Plant 5,000 trees per year of (1) Walk-by inspections
trees in home burning species; species X, Y, and Z, starting in year and household surveys;
gardens; 1998;
(2) Increase the (2) Only 1 in 50 families (2) Increase to 2 in 50 families by (2) Household surveys;
adoption of uses them now; year 2001;
cooking stoves;
(3) Seek (3) Debate through (3) Reduce kerosene price 25% by (3) Market studies.
kerosene political means 1999.
subsidies

Box 10. An Example of a Force-Field Analysis

The force-field is a diagram of driving forces carrying you to the right ("progress"), and restraining forces
pushing you to the left ("obstacles"). You are now at position A, and you want to be at Position B in the
future.

In the following example of afforestation and reforestation, you list all the driving forces and restraining
forces. You rate each force by its importance (i.e., amount of impact) and by your degree of control over it.
Suppose that these scales are measured from "1" (low) to "5" (high), and suppose that your ratings give
the following results:
Importance Your Control Total
Driving Forces
Rising prices of wood products 2 2 4
Genetically-improved planting stock 2 4 6
Improved operational planning 4 5 9
Increasing public support 3 2 5
Restraining Forces
Decreasing agency budget 3 2 5
Irregular annual precipitation 5 1 6
Poor procedures for hiring and paying field workers 4 4 8
Losses to fires and grazing 5 3 8
If you can find some forces that explain others, the effectiveness of your actions will be greater. For
example, suppose that "improved operational planning" can reduce "losses to fires and grazing" as well
as "poor procedures for hiring and paying field workers." Because it has these cross-impacts, you give
special attention to "operational planning."

Box 11. The Comparison Matrix

The comparison matrix lays out your options in vertical and horizontal rows. Working in a group or as
individuals, your planning team makes one-by-one comparisons among the intersecting pairs. This is a
systematic approach to choose among several options, such as when you need to compare programs
that have different elements in them. For illustration, suppose that you have the following program options
and the following decision criteria:
Social Equity Annual Expenditure Biodiversity Political Acceptability
Option A High Very Large ++ ++
Option B Neutral Large ++ ++
Option C High Modest +++ +
Option D Poor Large +++ ?
Construct the Comparison Matrix:
Option B Option C Option D
Option A Choose A Choose C Choose A
Option B Choose C Choose B
Option C Choose C
In these hypothetical comparisons, Option C is preferred three times. The next best choice is Option A,
selected twice.

2.2 Methods to Examine Spatial and Inter-Sectoral Relationships

Some of your most important information for strategic planning comes from good maps and land-
use plans. To the extent you rely on maps and land-use plans, you are likely to need the
collaboration of other government agencies. This can be an excellent opportunity for inter-agency
and "inter-sectoral" dialogue. In addition to maps and land-use plans, you may decide to explore
spatial and inter-sectoral aspects with the help of simulation models and regional economic
models.

· Maps and Land-Use Plans. - Worksheet 14 indicates several types of information

that you may want presented in the form of maps. Simple techniques, such as
overlaying different kinds of maps to show a composite picture of selected areas, can
be perfectly adequate in strategic planning. Seldom do you need Geographic
Information Systems (GIS) to cover all areas, particularly during the early stages of
identifying problems and issues. Rather, you rely on simpler and less expensive
methods. You consider GIS only where detailed analyses will be warranted because
of sensitive issues or particularly important land-use tradeoffs.

· Computerized Simulations. - Some computerized simulations show how land uses

will change because of population growth and migration, agricultural expansion, and
so on. These simulations can be helpful for discussing where and how fast forests
are likely to be converted to non-forest uses. Some simulation models illustrate
environmental impacts of forest conversion at a regional scale. Others are able to
project future demands for forest products and services. An increasing number of
these models will become available as computer software continues to improve, and
as more packages are adapted for international use. At the same time, you want your
planning team to be aware of the many intangible and non-quantitative details that
simulations cannot address.

· Models in Economic Geography. - Regional models are helpful for indicating how
different kinds of investments - such as in forest plantations, tourist facilities, etc. - will
create demands for credit, transport services, infrastructure, and employment. To
explore these issues, you may want to employ input-output models, regional trade
flow models, and production linkage studies. Other models show how populations
locate in response to economic and social "growth poles." These and related
approaches are described in the references on regional economic development (e.g.,
see Appendix II, Part B).

2.3 Methods for Social, Environmental, and Economic Analysis

All planned changes to use and conserve forests aim to stabilize or improve social,
environmental, and economic conditions. Good strategic planning has to anticipate the type and
magnitude of impacts to be expected. The principal techniques for this are social assessment,
environmental assessment, and benefit-cost analysis. These approaches are increasingly mixed
and integrated, e.g., benefit-cost analysis of environmental changes, social assessment of capital
investments, and so on:

· Social Assessments. - Social assessments have many forms, ranging from

ethnographic studies to formal surveys. Some ethnographic studies may take a
trained anthropologist several years to complete. Formal surveys can also be time-
consuming and expensive, especially if they attempt to include hundreds of people.
For these reasons, an increasing number of practical cases aim at an intermediate
level of analysis, such as "rapid rural appraisal" (RRA) and "participatory rural
appraisal" (PRA). In RRA and PRA, you rely on a combination of interviews, direct
observations, and small-group discussions to identify social issues and problems
 (see Worksheet 15). For most medium and long-term strategic planning, this should
be adequate. In other cases, your initial findings will suggest that you need wider
coverage or deeper analysis, leading to subsequent stages of fact finding.

· Environmental Assessments. - Ideally, environmental assessments provide you with

a complete ex ante forecast of biophysical impacts, their distribution in space and
time, and an analysis of the best ways to mitigate negative impacts. But in practice,
you are unlikely to achieve this within the time frame of your planning. Rather, you
may need to be satisfied with checklists that state possible impacts (Worksheet 16).
In truly complex or controversial cases, your planning has to allow for the time and
costs of a specialized environmental impact assessment (EIA). Manuals on EIA are
available from most of the United Nations agencies, international development banks,
and international aid agencies. These can be satisfactory if you adapt them for the
circumstances of your own country. Moreover, an increasing number of national
governments are writing their own EIA policies and procedures.

· Benefit-Cost Analysis. - You want your strategic actions to be measured by

standards that are financial and economic, e.g., through the application of benefit-
cost analysis (BCA). For each major component of a strategic plan, you should
indicate what levels of investments and recurrent expenditures will be needed.
Moreover, you try to establish measures of private and social profitability to guide
selection among planning options. This demands a fairly complete set of prices and
values, now and into the future. This is almost always a large task, but is generally
worth the effort if your planned investments are large. Your planning team needs to
understand the difference between financial vs. economic BCA, as well as
techniques for extending BCA to cover environmental benefits and costs (Worksheet
17).

Seldom are you able to completely estimate the social, environmental, financial, and economic
impacts of a strategic plan in quantitative terms. Even if possible, you have no way to combine
these dimensions in one measure, e.g., monetary value. In principle, planners solve this dilemma
through multi-criteria analysis that uses mathematical programming. But in practice, multi-criteria
analysis is a sophisticated planning tool that few of your interest groups and team members will
be able to understand.

On the other hand, almost everyone should be able to understand a matrix for trade-off analysis.
You accomplish this by ranking proposed actions according to different evaluation criteria (Box
12). This can be another way to build participation into planning, and to favor a "systems
approach" in comparing alternatives.

Box 12. The Trade-Off Matrix

The trade-off matrix helps you choose among alternatives when you have multiple decision criteria to
consider. (See Box 11 and Worksheet 12 for another approach to multi-criteria decisions.) In the trade-off
matrix, you rank proposed actions according to each criterion. In the example below, the "total score" is
the horizontal unweighted sum of the rankings.
Strategy or Option Social Ranking* Environmental Ranking* Economic Ranking* Total Score**
A 2 1 3 6
B 1 3 4 8
C 5 4 5 14
D 3 5 2 10
E 4 2 1 7
* 1 = highest; 5 = lowest

** You may choose to weight some criteria more heavily than others. Suppose that you want to
emphasize social more than environmental and economic factors. Depending on the weights you apply,
this may favor Strategy B over Strategy A.
Source: Adapted from Yves C. Dubé, 1995, "Macroeconomic Aspects of Forestry Sector Planning," p. 69
in D.G. Brand (ed.), Forestry Sector Planning. Proceedings of a Meeting Held 18-22 September 1994 in
Anchorage, Alaska. Canadian Forest Service/Food and Agriculture Organization, Ottawa, Canada.

To conclude, the social, environmental, and economic tools you select for your strategic planning
should be determined by:

· the importance and sensitivity of a proposed policy, program, or project;

· the time and budget for conducting the analysis;

 · the technical and administrative capacity within your agency - or through the help of
external assistance - to undertake the analysis; and

· the extent to which your interest groups will accept the analysis as useful and valid.

2.4 Methods to Discuss the Future

Planners are forecasters. In every country, events are occurring that will change the way people
ask and answer the question, "Trees and forests for whom and for what?" In your planning, you
are expected to anticipate these questions and answers, and to assess what consequences they
have for your improvement goals and strategies. You will be greatly assisted in this if you can
apply a few techniques of forecasting and futures analysis. The techniques help you add rigor to
judgments that otherwise remain less than fully developed.

There are many books, articles, and training manuals on forecasting techniques. The approaches
range from highly quantitative to purely qualitative:

· Trend extrapolation. - In this approach, you extend past and current observations
into the future, usually through quantitative relationships. For example, if you know
fuelwood consumption per capita, and if you also have a forecast of population
growth, then you are able to project the growth of aggregate fuelwood consumption
into the future. At the same time, you need to identify what may happen because of
possible new trend components (e.g., changes in subsidies for petroleum-based
fuels). In more complex situations, you relate the demand for one or more forest
products to several explanatory variables simultaneously (e.g., population, income,
prices of substitute materials, and others). Similarly, you can attempt to project
deforestation rates, diffusion of agroforestry technologies, etc., in relation to their
explanatory variables. These types of projections require reliable data sets and
experts capable in advanced statistical methods, both of which may be limiting in
many situations.

· Scenario construction. - Here you use perspectives from different people to explore
alternative states of the future. You ask individuals to describe how they visualize
future political, cultural, economic, and technological dimensions of a particular issue
related to forests. You then apply qualitative judgments to separate likely scenarios
from those which are less plausible. In another type of scenario construction, you ask
individuals to imagine the future they want (i.e., in reference to a particular issue),
and then to describe a series of events and conditions to achieve it.

· Historical analogy. - Sometimes you ask your planning team to look backwards to
think about what may happen in the future. For example, you can ask everyone to
view your interest groups in an ongoing historical struggle of forces and
counterforces, goals and constraints, and actions and reactions. In a second kind of
analysis, you ask your planners to describe a particular problem about forests and
humans in terms of past and current social dilemmas. Then, what could happen in
the future that would help your country to solve these dilemmas? In both cases, you
are looking for historical patterns that signal that an important transformation is
possible or even likely. (Also, see "force-field analysis" in section 2.1.)

· Delphi and other techniques based on collective opinions. - Several forecasting

techniques rely on group interactions to arrive at a collective opinion. In the Delphi
method, different persons respond individually and confidentially to a sequence of
questions. At each stage in the sequence, the results from the preceding questions
are revealed to everyone. Then, each member of the group is given the opportunity
to change his or her assumptions and predictions. Because these changes are made
confidentially, each individual is free to change a previous position without being
influenced by personal relationships. In a variation of this method, your discussions
are open and shared. However, this sometimes gives dominant personalities a great
amount of influence, e.g., by getting other individuals to "agree" with them.

Note that all forecasts of the future apply the same basic approach. They identify patterns of
behavior, and explore how these patterns will change or stay the same as a basis for anticipating
what will happen in the future. In planning, you are doing your best to make the future "knowable"
by carefully studying Factors A, B, and C that lead to Result Z. You use theories and concepts to
predict the future in relation to the present and past. In this sense, your planning team needs to
appreciate that good forecasting is a science - it is not wild and undisciplined guessing.

You should be alert to books, articles, and videos for forecasting approaches that may be helpful.
Particularly because of computer simulations, forecasting models are able to represent increasing
numbers of variables and relationships. However, you should never accept these in the form of
"black boxes." Somebody has to reason that A, B, and C lead to Z. For this, the methods of trend
extrapolation, scenario construction, historical analogy, Delphi technique, panel of experts, etc.,
are basic and indispensable. They require that your planners apply structured thinking, even if not
always with the assistance of computers. Your challenge is to practice these techniques, and to
learn how to adapt them to meet your objectives (see Worksheet 18).