ENTREPRENEURSHIP CASE STUDY

ON
GROWTH HACKING

SUBMITTED BY- SUBMITTED TO-

MD JEESHAN Ms. SHIPRA MAM
PGDM 2 B
ABS/PGDM/19/081
Question
Analyze the case study and make a summary/report and put on
other examples of growth hacking.
Case study to be considered - Halfbrick uses Firebase Predictions
to boost retention by 20%

Solution-
Halfbrick already had Firebase Remote Config implemented in their game Dan the Man, so
they decided to try Predictions there. They set up a 3-variant experiment testing whether
they could boost retention by offering a pop-up with a gift of in-game currency. Group 0 was
the control and received no promotion. Users in Group 1 received the in-game gift based on
Halfbrick’s existing heuristic: beating level 3. Finally, users in Group 2 received the gift if they
were identified by Predictions as ‘will churn’.
By serving the in-game promotion to users who were predicted to churn, Halfbrick boosted
their 7-day retention for that group by 5 percentage points, which equated to a 20% boost.
With the success they’ve seen in Dan the Man, Halfbrick is excited to test out Predictions in
their other titles.

SUMMERY-
Getting Started with Firebase Predictions
Firebase Predictions applies machine learning to your Google Analytics for Firebase data to
create groups of users based on predicted behaviour. These groups are updated daily, and
can be used for targeting with notifications, remote configuration and more. Out of the box,
Firebase Predictions will create groups of users that are considered likely to churn, likely not
to churn, likely to spend and likely not to spend. If you track conversion analytics, you can
also create predictions for these events. In this article, I’ll step you through Firebase
Predictions, how to set it up, how it works, and how you can create and track your own
predictions.

How does it work?

Behind Firebase Predictions is Tensor Flow, Google’s framework for Machine Learning. It
uses supervised learning where we read the last 100 days of analytics activity for your app
and use this to generate a set of features — inputs to a Machine Learning model. From
these features, a model is created to predict their output (labels in ML parlance), with the
four built-in labels mentioned above. So, for example, when predicting if a user will churn,
Predictions will look at the behavior of all users over the last 100 days, and use this to learn
about the users that did churn during that time period. The model will then help determine
which users might churn in the next 7 days.

Using Features and Labels in Predictions Similarly, models for users that are predicted not
to churn, as well as users that will or will not spend in-app are built, and predictions
determined.

Getting Started
Prior to using predictions, there are some pre-requisites that your app needs. You’ll go
through these in this section.
Step 1. Add Analytics to your App
Predictions gets its data from Google Analytics for Firebase. Implementing this is very easy,
and requires no code — giving you a set of common analytics out-of-the-box.

Step 2. Enable Predictions

When using Firebase in your apps, you have a project in the cloud that is used to administer
everything. You access this via the Firebase Console. So, if you’ve never written a Firebase
App before, and need a project on the Firebase console, check out this article (iOS/Swift) or
this one (Android) to show you how to get started. The console is designed around the
principles of Firebase — Developing Apps, Stabilizing them, Measuring them with Analytics
and Growing them. Predictions is considered a Grow technology, so you’ll find it in this
section.
Understanding Predictions
After a little time, your Predictions cards will populate. So, for example, in Figure 4 you can
see the churn card for a popular app. In this case, 20% of the app’s users are predicted to
churn in the next 7 days. That’s an alarming statistic, and it’s good to know about this before
it happens.

Note the slider control, which is used to set tolerance of the prediction. When you choose
Low Risk Tolerance as shown, you are sending a signal that you want to avoid false positives
as much as possible, and only access those users that have a very high probability of
matching the prediction. There are three tolerance levels — Low, Medium and High, with
the net of users widening as you move up the levels, at a higher risk of false positives.
You can test the accuracy by opening the slider at the bottom of the card. In this case you
can see that the churn prediction is demonstrated as being very accurate — typically in the
95% range.

Play with the tolerance selection — you’ll notice that for some predictions, in particular
custom ones, the accuracy will vary for higher tolerance, which is expected, as you’re
tolerating more false positives

Examples of Predictions in Action

Halfbrick Studios
A great example of this is Halfbrick games who already had Firebase Remote Config
implemented in their game Dan the Man and experimented with using the prediction of
users that would churn to see if they could increase their retention rate. They chose to
provide a gift of in-app currency to users that were predicted to two groups of users: Those
that beat level 3 of their game, and those that were predicted to churn by Firebase
Predictions.
Grow your app with Google’s machine learning
Firebase Predictions applies the power of Google’s machine learning to your app analytics
data to create user segments based on predicted behavior. Without requiring anyone on
your app team to have ML expertise, Predictions can give you insight into which segments of
users are likely to churn or spend (or complete another conversion event) so you can make
informed product decisions.

Run more sophisticated messaging campaigns

Predictions creates user groups that can be used for targeting with notifications and In-App
Messaging, right from the Firebase console. This way, you can engage users before they
churn, nudge users who are likely to make in-app purchases, and much more.
Insight into prediction inputs and performance
You have visibility into the factors the ML model considers (like events, device, user data,
etc.) to create each predictive segment. You can also see performance metrics, which help
you understand how accurate each prediction is. With these insights, you can better
calibrate your risk tolerance settings.

Growth Hacking Examples-

 AirBnB
 Dollar Shave
 Dropbox
 Facebook
 Gmail
 Groove
 Grow and Convert
 Groupon
 Harvest Snaps
 Hotmail
 Hubspot
 Instagram
 LinkedIn
 Monzo
 Netflix