A massive earthquake of Mw = 7.

7 occurred in the Pakistan’s Kashmir Hazara Zone on October

08, 2005 at 0350 UTC, killing over 0.10 million people. As per Micro Seismic Monitoring
System (MSMS) of WAPDA, Pakistan, this shallow focused earthquake (16.2 km) occurred at
Lat. 34.53 E & Lon. 73.55 N. The earthquake resulted from the subduction of the Indian plate
beneath the Eurasian plate, and fault plane solutions indicated that the earthquake resulted due to
thrust faulting. Muzaffarabad and Balakot where the Modified Mercalli Intensity reached a
maximum of X were the most effected cities.This was the largest historical earthquake on the
Indus Kohistan Seismic Zone (IKSZ) of Armbruster et al. (1978) and Seeber and Armbruster
(1979). It was the first Himalayan earthquake to be accompanied by surface rupture, reactivating
the Balakot–Bagh (B–B) reverse fault (Figure-1) and, locally, offsetting the Main Boundary
thrust (MBT). A field investigation by Yeats et al. (2006) and Kaneda et al. (2008) revealed a
surface rupture 70 km long, with up to 7-m vertical separation, mostly along the pre-existing B–
B fault. Northwest of the end of the surface rupture, heavy damage was sustained northwest to
the Indus River, site of the 1974 Pattan earthquake of Mw = 6.3 (Figure-1). The physiography of
the range, as well as tectonic structure defines a Syntaxis, called the Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis
(HKS), outlined by the hairpin rotation of the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT). The MBT is a most
important fault bounding the Himalayan range that has thrust metasediments of the Lesser
Himalaya over the Tertiary molasses. Active deformation in the area results from the 3 cm/yr
northward notch of the northwestern Indian Peninsula into Eurasia. Along the northwestern
Himalaya, a fraction of that junction, estimated to about 1.4 cm/yr, is absorbed by thrusting.

1. KASHMIR HAZARA TERRAIN

The Kashmir Hazara terrain lying in the lesser Himalayan belt constitutes the NW segment of the
Indo Pakistan plate. This part of the plate has been grilled by two continental accidents; the
earlier one 100-75 my ago when the Indo-Pakistan Plate collided with Eurasia, overwhelming the
Palaeotethys. After the initial collision, the Indo-Pak plate started under-thrusting the Eurasian
Plate and according to an estimate over 700 km of the Indo-Pakistan Plate has been consumed
under Eurasian plate. The uplift of the Tibetan Plateau and Himalayan Belt and their attaining
higher elevation is considered as a result of under-thrusting the Indo-Pak Plate underneath
Eurasia. Even now the northward subduction is continuing at the rate of 3-4 cm per year and
stresses generated by this convergence movement have given rise to extensive southward
directed thrust system which is successively migrating to the south and being accommodated by
the major shear zones including those of Kashmir and Hazara. The active tectonics created by the
plate movements or deep crustal disturbances induce body waves which are seismic and travel
through the earth’s interior, spreading outward from the epicenters in all directions. These waves
are capable of triggering the dormant faults and could transform an Aseismic zone into seismic.
Seeber et al (1983) based on seismic data delineated two major deformational anomalies at
crustal level called Detachment Fault and Basement Fault. The Detachment is nearly a horizontal
fault and separates the under thrusting Indo-Pak shield from the overlying metamorphic and
sedimentary rock formations. The Basement marks the line separating the shallow dipping
Detachment Fault from the steeper dipping Basement. Thus under this context the fault in the
Kashmir-Hazara terrain are categorized either being the offshoots of Basement or Detachment.
In case of Detachment a rupture occurs in vast area in a single event and it generates great
earthquakes. The earthquakes are categorized as shallow at depth range up to 70 km beneath the
surface, intermediate between 70 -350 km and deep between 350 – 670 km.
Figure 1 Regional Seismotectonic Setup

The B–B fault dips northeast. Near Muzaffarabad, the fault separates Precambrian limestone and
shale on the northeast from Miocene Murree Formation on the southwest; farther southeast, the
fault is entirely within the Murree Formation or forms the contact between the Murree and
Kamlial formations (Fig.2). The Kohistan arc can be divided from the Asian plate by the
Northern or Shyok Suture and from the Indian plate by the Main Mantle Thrust (MMT). The
internal zone is separated from the external zone un-metamorphosed to low-grade metamorphic
Precambrian sediments and dominantly Mesozoic to Eocene Tethyan shelf sediments by the
Punjal Thrust (PT). The Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) delineates the southernmost extent of the
foreland basin fold and thrust belt. The Balakot Formation red beds lie in thrust contact with the
Paleocene aged shallow marine Patala Formation and Lockhart Limestone below, and are
tectonically intercalated with an underlying dark gray marl formation (Mahdi 2007). Jhelum
Fault is a NE dipping strike-slip fault following the western margin of HKS bend. Rocks
belonging to Miocene, Cambrian and Pre-Cambrian periods exposed along its trace are highly
deformed due to recurring shear zones. Individual blocks of the Punjal Volcanic and Triassic
limestones have been found dragged for several kilometers southward. An accumulative left-
lateral offset of about 31 km is indicated on the western limb of the Syntaxis. It apparently
dislocates from the Main Boundary Thrust and terminates at the eastward continuation of some
of the geological structures of North West Himalayan Fold and Thrust Belts. These tectonic
relationships indicate Jhelum fault as the youngest major tectonic feature in the syntaxial zone
(Mehdi et. al. 2006).
 Figure 2. Geology of Bagh-Balakot Fault & Location/FMS of Main KH Earthquake

2. SEISMOTECTONIC SETTING

Earthquakes in the northern part of Pakistan are the result of ongoing northward subduction of
the Indian plate beneath the Eurasian plate at a rate of around 40 mm/year. The N & NE directed
compression has produced major thrust faults like the Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT), Main
Mantle Thrust (MMT), and the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) shown in Figure-1, as well as
many active faults of variable length. Transpressional features in the area include strike slip
faults named as Jhelum, Thakot, Puran and Raikot Faults. In addition to these, existence of
shallow to deep crustal faults, like the NW trending Indus Kohistan Seismic Zone (IKSZ) of
Armbruster et al. (1978) and Bagh Balakot Fault (BBF) of Khan and Ali (1994), has also been
proposed. The Himalayan region has been experiencing major earthquakes, like the 1905 Kangra
earthquake, 1934 Bihar–Nepal, and 1950 Assam earthquake. All these earthquakes have
approached or exceeded Mw = 8.0, but none was as destructive as the October 8, 2005 Kashmir-
Hazara earthquake of Mw = 7.7. These great earthquakes occurred on the detachment under the
outer and Lesser Himalayas rocks from the under thrusting Indian shield rocks. Gahalaut (2006)
indicated the presence of three seismic gaps in some segments of the detachment and named one
of them as the Kashmir Seismic Gap, which lies in the southeast of the NW Himalayan Syntaxis
or Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis (HKS). The seismically active nature of Pakistan and its adjacent
region is well known because of the occurrence of some of the biggest earthquakes of the world.
Some events that caused loss of life and destruction in northern Pakistan during the recent past
are the 1974 Pattan earthquake of Mw = 6.2, Rawalpindi earthquake of 1977 having Mw= 5.5,
two Bunji earthquakes of Mw= 5.3 and Mw = 6.3 that occurred in 2002, two Batgram
earthquakes of Mw 5.5 and Mw = 5.8 that took place in 2004, and the October 8, 2005 Kashmir
Hazara earthquake with Mw = 7.7. The fault that ruptured during the October 08, 2005, Mw 7.7
earthquake is a thrust has been identified characteristically along the Jhelum valley from
Muzaffarabad to Garhi and farther south.
3. INDUS KOHISTAN SEISMIC ZONE

On the basis of a micro-earthquake survey in this region during 1973–1974, through WAPDA
MSMS data a wedge-shaped NW trending structure was recognized by Armbruster et al. (1978)
who named it as IKSZ. Later workers confirmed the presence of this 100 km long feature
between the HKS and the MMT. This 50-km-wide zone of seismicity has a nearly horizontal
upper surface and a NE dipping lower surface. Seeber, et. al. (1983) has used microseismic data
from the Pakistan’s Tarbela and Chasma microseismic networks to develop a seismotectonic
model for the Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis (HKS) region in Pakistan. According to them there exist
a sub-horizontal decollement as an interface between the sedimentary and meta-sedimentary
wedge and the basement. However, they have also discerned two parallel clusters of epicentres
associated with the basement faults, extending towards NW from the KHS, which they
interpreted as the deeper level NW extensions of the structural trends in the Kashmir Himalaya,
east of Syntaxis. Out of the two zones/clusters the NE one, which they preferred to call Indus
Kohistan Seismic Zone (IKSZ), is currently more active and indicates predominantly thrust type
movement. The IKSZ strikes parallel to the north-western Himalaya, but extends beyond the
HKS. This seismicity extends north-westwards the belt of seismic activity that follows the front
of the entire Himalaya. Ni et al. (1991), on the basis of relocated hypocenters, have identified
two seismic zones within the IKSZ: a shallow zone extending from the surface to a depth of 8
km and a more pronounced midcrustal zone lying at depths of 12 to 25 km. The upper boundary
at a depth of about 12 km is considered to represent a decollement surface that decouples the
sediments and metasediments from the basement. The IKSZ is seismically the most active
structure in the region, as it is capable of generating large events. Prior to 2005, the most
destructive earthquake, associated with the IKSZ, was the 28 December, 1974 Pattan earthquake
with mb 6 magnitude. The question arises whether the IKSZ or the detachment is responsible for
the Muzaffarabad earthquake.

4. DATA ANALYSIS AND FOCAL MECHANISM SOLUTIONS

More than 25,000 aftershocks were recorded by the WAPDA Micro Seismic Monitoring System
(MSMS) between the October 8, 2005 Kashmir Hazara (KH) earthquake and December 2012.
The WAPDA MSMS uses its own P-wave velocity model, whereas for S-wave velocities, it is
assumed that the Vp/VS ratio is 1.73. About 173 aftershocks were documented in the first day
after the initial shock, one of which had a magnitude of Mw = 6.4). A total of 25 earthquakes
(Mw ≥4) have been selected for the FMS, out of which ten are pre KH earthquake (1964–2004)
and fifteen are post KH earthquake, including the main shock (Table 1). All the 25 pre and post
KH earthquake FMS are plotted on a map (Fig.3) and are discussed below in relation to the
structures present in the area. FMS of pre KH earthquakes are named as P1, P2. . . P10 and the
KH earthquake plus aftershocks FMS as 1, 2, 3. . . 15 (Fig 3.). All of pre KH earthquakes except
P8 are situated near or along the MMT that forms the northern boundary of the study area. The
event P8 is located on the right lateral Thakot Fault, which is one of the important active faults in
the area. For FMS 6, 7, FMS and 10, the focal depth is 10 km, confirming the activation of
IKSZ. Focal depths for the events 2, 4, 5, and 8 the depth ranges from 49 to 55 km (Table 1.)
There is general agreement that thrusting is the major deformational process operating at these
levels. However, in the case of FMS 9, 12, and 13 (aftershocks), the focal depth is 10 km, that is
again confirming the activation of the IKSZ.
Table 1. Source parameters of the 25 earthquakes used in FMS determination
FMS Nos. Date (D/M/Y) Time (H:M:S) Latitude (N) Longitude (E) Depth (km) Magnitude (Mw)
Pre-2005 FMS
P1 8/11/65 21:23:09 34.6 73.3 65 5.1
P2 6/4/66 1:51:53 34.91 73.06 54 5.6
P3 28/4/71 15:12:42 34.44 73.6 43 5.3
P4 27/12/71 20:59:39 34.98 73.02 55 5.7
P5 27/09/72 20:24:56 35.07 72.91 49 5.3
P6 28/12/74 12:11:46 35.06 72.91 15 6.4
P7 28/12/74 22:38:53 34.99 73.1 21 5.3
P8 7/4/75 6:41:02 34.91 72.97 53 5.5
P9 28/12/84 16:28:01 34.61 73.61 47 5
P10 17/7/2000 5:26:00 34.59 72.89 10 5.5
KH Earthquake FMS
1 08/10/05 03:50 34.42 73.52 13 7.6
2 08/10/05 10:46 34.76 73.28 8 6.4
3 08/10/05 12:08 34.56 73.20 10 5.7
4 08/10/05 12:25 34.76 73.40 10 5.7
5 08/10/05 21:13 34.77 73.45 10 6.0
6 08/10/05 21:45 34.65 73.36 10 5.7
7 09/10/05 08:30 34.56 73.51 10 5.8
8 09/10/05 19:20 34.38 73.79 10 5.5
9 12/10/05 20:23 34.90 73.46 10 5.8
10 13/10/05 20:49 34.74 73.19 10 5.7
11 19/10/05 02:33 34.66 73.53 05 5.8
12 19/10/05 03:16 34.90 73.38 10 5.5
13 23/10/05 15:04 34.88 73.19 10 5.9
14 28/10/05 21:34 34.74 73.13 10 5.5
15 06/11/05 02:11 34.47 73.54 10 5.7
Focal mechanism solutions of these events support this contention, as all solutions illustrate
thrusting. All include a plane that strikes in the NW–SE direction and dips NE, except P2 and P4
that have NE and N striking planes, respectively. P- axis orientations of these events are NE–SW
(Table 2). Following Armbruster et al. (1978), it is believed that the IKSZ is responsible for
the shallow seismic activity, whereas imbricate thrusting, breaking, and thickening of the crust to
a depth of 60 to 70 km is producing thrusts with mostly shallow dips in an overall steeply
dipping seismic pattern. Thus, the deeper earthquakes are considered to be intraplate events
within the lower crust (lower part of the Himalayan crust).

Table 2. FMS parameters obtained for the 25

earthquakes
FMS Nos. Nature of FMS Fault plane (FP) Auxiliary plane P-Axis T-Axis
(AP)
Strike Dip Strike Dip Strike Plunge Strike Plunge
Pre-2005 FMS
P1 THRUST 142o 33oNE 289 o 62 o 31 o 15 o 164 o 69 o
P2 THRUST 308 o 7 oNE 40 o 90 oSE 136 o 44 o 303 o 45 o
P3 THRUST 339 o 26 oNE 166 o 64 oSW -106 o 19 o 82 o 70 o
P4 THRUST 331 o 12 oNE 87 o 85 oS 186 o 39 o 345 o 49 o
P5 THRUST 320 o 13 oNE 154 o 78 oSW 242 o 33 o 68 o 57 o
P6 REVERSE 348 o 52 oNE 105 o 60 oSW 225 o 5o 321 o 53 o
P7 THRUST 329 o 21 oE 135 o 70 oS -131 o 24 o 37 o 65 o
P8 THRUST 7o 11 oNE 175 o 79 oNW -93 o 34 o 82 o 56 o
P9 THRUST 284 o 34 oNE 162 o 70 o -129 o 21 o 108 o 56 o
P10 RLSS 312 o 85 oNE 42 o 88 oNW 177 o 2o -267 o 4o
KH earthquake FMS
 1. THRUST 342 o 57 o NE 101 o 53 o NW 42 o 2o 310 o 53 o
2. THRUST 335 o 54 o NE 107 o 48 o NW 42 o 4o 305 o 63 o
3. THRUST 340 o 57 o NE 102 o 51 o NW 42 o 4o 306 o 56 o
4. THRUST 339 o 56 o NE 97 o 54 o NW 38 o 1o 307 o 53 o
5. THRUST 357 o 62 o NE 145 o 32 o NW 75 o 15 o 300 o 69 o
6. THRUST 339 o 51 o NE 102 o 56 o NW 219 o 3o 314 o 57
7. THRUST 353 o 69 o NE 101 o 52 o NW 50 o 10 o 310 o 44 o
8. THRUST 321 o 64 o NE 179 o 31 o NW 65 o 17 o 198 o 66 o
9. THRUST 313 o 49 o NE 95 o 48 o NW 24 o 0o 293 o 70 o
10. THRUST 1o 77 o NE 113 o 31 o NW 69 o 27 o 302 o 50 o
11. THRUST 320 o 43 o NE 124 o 48 o NW 138 o 3o 329 o 82 o
12. THRUST 334 o 60 o NE 105 o 41 o NW 43 o 10 o 294 o 62 o
13. THRUST 309 o 48 o NE 101 o 46 o NW 25 o 1o 291 o 75 o
14. THRUST 341 o 57 o NE 99 o 54 o NW 41 o 2o 309 o 53 o
15. THRUST 157 o 81 o NE 52 o 33 o NW 88 o 28 o 35 o 45 o

FMS P6 and P7 like P2 and P4 are also located near the MMT. P6, with a magnitude of Mw =
6.4, was the second largest earthquake to have occurred in the study area. Focal depths for these
events are 15 and 21 km, respectively (Table 1). From the earlier description, it is known that
the IKSZ occurs at depths ranging from 12 to 25 km. According to Ni et al. (1991), most IKSZ
events are deeper than 12 km in which the shallow events are associated with the reactivated
parts of MMT, while the deeper earthquakes may be related to the under thrusting of the Indian
plate beneath the IKSZ. Various workers named P6 as the Pattan earthquake of 1974 and
determined its FMS. The epicenter is located approximately 10 km north of MMT in a terrain of
garnet granulites overlying ultramafic rocks. Solutions obtained in the present study are of
reverse faulting, with a component of right-lateral strike slip in the case of the P6.

FMS 2, 4, 5, 10, and 14, are situated midway between the MMT and the Syntaxis region faults.
The Indian Plate to the south of MMT may comprise a stack of nappes. The IKSZ underlies this
area. In this domal structure, basement uplift is an ongoing process and may be the reason for
generating right-lateral strike slip faults in this part of the study area. The earthquake with FMS
P10 is located close to the nearly N–S trending strike slip Thakot Fault, which is considered to be
the surface expression of the Tarbela seismic zone. This zone, lying between depths of 8 and 18
km, overlies the HLSZ and comprises of thrusts and strike slip faults with strikes in both the NW
and NE directions. Considering the strike (NW–SE), dip (NE), sense of thrust, and depth (10
km) of FMS 3 and 6, it is anticipated that the IKSZ was activated. The events P3, 1, 7, and 15 are
situated within the HKS and P9and P8 at its eastern limb. FMS 3, 6, 7 and 15 are shallow
earthquakes with focal depths of 5–10 km, whereas P3 and P9 are of 54 and 43-km depth,
respectively. The latter two provide further confirmation of the attachment of the crystalline
basement of a crust thickened to about 58 km. Thrust solutions with NW–SE striking rupture
plane have been obtained for all the events including FMS 1, which is for the October 8, 2005
KH earthquake. Considering the trend and dip direction of the Bagh Basement Fault, the plane
dipping NE at 26◦ is inferred to be the rupture plane for P3 and P9. This suggests the existence of
more than one basement fault in the core of the Syntaxis.

IKSZ is about 95 KM NE off Tarbela Dam Project (3470 MW) and about 60 km NW off under
construction Neelum Jhelum Hydropower Project (1000 MW) (Fig 4). The Figure 4 indicates
that both Projects are surrounded by very active tectonic features. From the safety monitoring
view deployment of seismic instruments is necessary. Tarbela Dam Project is well surrounded by
MSMS instruments, however, the Eastern side Neelum Jhelum Project lacks such setup.

5. CONCLUSIONS

The October 8, 2005 KH earthquake is the deadliest of all the Himalayan earthquakes. Historical
and instrumental data propose that this earthquake occurred in the region where seismic activity
is very high. From the thorough study of the 25 FMS in relation to the structure and tectonics of
the area, three significant conclusions can be drawn: (1) Shallow events (depth ≤10 km) with
prominent strike slip solutions are associated with the surface strike slip faults (e.g., BBF) and/or
due to the uplifting of the Besham domal structure; (2) moderate depth events (depth 10–25 km)
with thrust/reverse solutions but having minor right-lateral strike slip component are associated
with IKSZ; and (3) deeper earthquakes (depth below IKSZ) with pure thrust/reverse solutions
may be related with the under-thrusting of the Indian plate beneath the IKSZ, which represents a
major thrust zone. The FMS of 15 aftershocks and the KH earthquake are strongly indicative of a
NW–SE trending, NE dipping thrust fault, about 90 km in length. Some 35 km of this proposed
fault follows the NW–SE trending Balakot–Bagh Fault. It is therefore propose that the IKSZ is
seismically active and was the source of the KH earthquake. The FMS of this earthquake is also
a NW–SE striking thrust with minor right-lateral strike slip component. The present study shows
that the IKSZ extends further southeast into the center of Syntaxis. Under construction Neelum
Jhelum & Kohala Hydro Project needs installation of MSMS instruments from the safety
monitoring point of view.