Skardu Report

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page No.
1.0 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Tasks to Address as per Technical Proposal 2
2.0 METHODOLOGY FOR SEISMIC HAZARD MICROZONATION 2
3.0 REGIONAL TECTONIC FRAMEWORK 3

3.1 Seismotectonic of Skardu Region 6
4.0 SEISMOTECTONIC AND GEOLOGIC SETTING OF NORTHERN PAKISTAN 7

4.1 General 7
4.2 Eurasian Plate 10
4.3 Kohistan Island Arc 10
4.4 Indian Plate 12
5.0 MAJOR SEISMOTECTONIC FEATURES AROUND SKARDU VALLEY 13

5.1 Main Karakoram Thrust 14
5.2 Main Mantle Thrust 14
5.3 Main Boundary Thrust 15
5.4 Karakoram Fault 15
6.0 GEOLOGY OF SKARDU VALLEY 16
7.0 SEISMOTECTONIC OF SKARDU VALLEY 18
8.0 NEOTECTONIC STUDIES AROUND SKARDU VALLEY 19
9.0 BUILDING CODE OF PAKISTAN 20
9.1 Soil Profile Type 22
9.2 Site Foundation Condition 22
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10.0 HISTORICAL SEISMICITY AND EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUE 23
11.0 INSTRUMENTAL EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUES 27
11.1 NESPAK Earthquake Catalogue 28
11.2 Waseem et al. (2018) Earthquake Catalogue 28
11.3 Pakistan WAPDA Micro Seismic Monitoring System Earthquake 28

Catalogue
11.4 Focal Depth 29
12.0 CATALOGUE COMPILATION 29

12.1 Catalogue Compilation and Magnitude Conversion 30
12.2 Declustering of Earthquake Catalogue 31
12.3 Analysis of Earthquake Record 31
13.0 SEISMOTECTONIC ANALYSIS 34

13.1 Identification and Description of Seismic Sources 34
13.2 Recurrence Relationship and Seismicity Models 39
14.0 SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS 34
14.1 Deterministic Procedure 34
14.2 Probabilistic Procedure 37

14.2.1 PSHA Methodology 37
14.2.2 Source Modeling – Area Sources 38
14.2.3 Earthquake Recurrence Model 39
14.2.4 Maximum Magnitude 40
14.2.5 Attenuation Relationship 40

15.0 PRINCIPLES OF SEISMIC MICROZONATION 41
15.1 Framework for Seismic Microzonation 42
15.2 Seismic Micro Zonation for Skardu City 2040 42
15.3 Migration of Population in Skardu City 2040 42
15.4 Seismic Microzonation of Skardu City 2040 44
15.5 Skardu Khas Seismic Microzone 44
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15.6 Hussainabad Seismic Microzone 45
15.7 Shigri Kalan Seismic Microzone 45
15.8 Results of PSHA 45
16.0 SOIL LIQUEFACTION AND MITIGATION FOR SKARDU CITY 2040 53
16.1 Soil Liquefaction 53

16.2 Soil Liquification and Peak ground acceleration (PGA) 54
16.3 Liquefaction potential index (LPI) 54
16.4 Traditional Architecture of structural units in Skardu 54
16.5 An Example Traditional House in Skardu 55
16.6 Chief Materials 57
16.7 Recent Constructions in Skardu Valley 58
16.8 Structural integrity of existing structures 58
16.9 Conclusions and Recommendations 59
17.0 MICRO SEISMIC MONITORING SYSTEM (MSMS) 59
18.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 61
REFERANCES 63
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure-1. Topographic location of Gamba/Hotto, Skardu & Hussainabad
Figure-2. Seismicity distribution of Pakistan
Figure-3. Generalized tectonic map of northern Pakistan, showing subdivisions of the

Himalayan Mountains
Figure-4. Tectonic map of Northern Pakistan displaying major faults
Figure-5. Generalized Tectonic Map of Northern Pakistan
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Figure-6 Seismotectonic fault System of Northern Pakistan including Skardu
Figure-7 Seismotectonic Model of Northern Pakistan
Figure-8 Geological map of Skardu District
Figure-9. Seismotectonic Map North of Skardu Valley
Figure-10. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) variation in Pakistan
Figure-11. Spatial Distribution of Seismicity in and around Skardu City
Figure-12. Seismicity 200 km radius around Skardu City with respect to Faults
Figure-13. Zones in the Skardu Seismic Region
Figure-14. Seismic Microzonation of Skardu City 2040
Figure-15. Total Hazard Curve for Skardu Khas & Hotto/Gamba areas when Vs 30 = 760
m/sec
Figure-16. Uniform Hazard Spectra for Skardu Khas & Hotto/Gamba areas
when Vs30 = 760 m/sec
m/sec
m/sec
Figure-21. Total Hazard Curve for Hussainabad & Shigri Kalan

(Airport & Surrounding areas) when Vs30 = 760 m/sec
Figure-22. Uniform Hazard Spectra for Hussainabad & Shigri Kalan

.
‘
Figure-24. Uniform Hazard Spectra for Hussainabad & Shigri Kalan

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Figure-26 Total Hazard Curve for Hussainabad & Shigri Kalan

Figure-27. Traditional Two-level Dwelling in Skardu
Figure-28. Plan of a traditional house in Skardu with a Central Courtyard
Figure-29. Traditional Interior Ceiling of Baltistan
Figure-30.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMERY
As a part of the Skardu City Master Plan 2040, this report deals with the seismic microzonation
and further development of building and land-use planning strategies. Restrictions to ensure
mainstreaming of seismic hazards in the spatial planning and management of the Skardu City.
The proposed area of interest starting from Hotto/Gamba to Hussainabad Skardu is
approximately 135000 kanal. Due to the presence of three major mountain ranges geology of
Skardu Valley is much diverse consisting of Metamorphic and Igneous rocks. Mostly all soil types
are found in the Valley. Typically, the Valley has Mesozoic and Palaeozoic -Precambrian soil
types.
According to Building Code of Pakistan (BCP) 2007 and 2021, the Skardu City is placed in
seismically active Zone 3, while in its close vicinity there is more active area of Seismic Zone 4.
Historical earthquake data catalogue for Pakistan and composite instrumental seismic data
catalogue of Skardu Region are developed for the studies. The area of 200 km. radial distance
from Skardu is named as Skardu Region in this report. Study of historical catalogue indicates that
Skardu Region has experienced earthquake Intensity up to XI, while seismic events up to Mw 7.6
have originated from the area.
To determine the Soil Profile Types in accordance with Table 4.1 of BCP, the area was classified
into various seismic units. The resultant Soil Profile Types are S B = 760 m/sec, SC = 450 m/sec
and SD = 200 m/sec. As per Deterministic Hazard Analysis the Karakoram strike-slip fault is
present about 35 km NE of the Skardu City. A large amount of seismic activity having Mw ≥ 4.0 in
the City, have been located from this fault. Maximum magnitude assigned to the fault is Mw 7.7,
while the computed PGA (H) = 0.2 g and PGA (V) = 0.13 g [PGA = Peak Ground Acceleration].
Based on the geological reports/maps, geophysical borehole logs data reports, satellite
imaginary and desktop study of research papers, the Skardu City 2040 is divided into three
Seismic Microzones. The seismic Microzones are named as Skardu Khas, Hussainabad and
Shigri Kalan.
Most useful way of presenting the result is in terms of horizontal hazard curves and uniform
hazard spectra. Figures for different return periods, i.e., for 475, 975 and 2475 years, relating
estimated ground motion to annual exceedance probabilities which are the inverse of return
periods in years. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) was carried out using
single site EZ-FRISK software developed by Fugro Engineering Consultants, USA. The resultant
values are provided in Table-4 of this report. The resultant values of g are in accordance to BCP
2021.
Large number of construction activity is under progress in the Skardu City. It should strictly
adhere to existing and state of art Building Code of Pakistan 2021. Areas with Soil Profile Types
SB and SC are good for construction purposes. While Soil Profile Types areas of S D may be
avoided in constructions happenings.
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Constitution of teams for review and enforcement of the Building Codes for government, semi
government, corporation and private residential buildings completed or under construction in
urban areas should be done. Capacity building of stakeholders, service providers and incident
respondents with backup mechanism under Skardu Development Authority (SDA) is needed.
Firming up disaster mitigation management plans for critical departments and to construct the
multilayered incident response teams backed up by emergency response centres for each
department is required.
There is lack of ground strategies like construction of earthquake resistant structures, flood
management strategies, landslide and avalanche mitigation measures increase the higher
chances of damage by future calamities. The SDA needs immediate establishment of fully
equipped disaster authorities with well-trained disaster rehabilitation force at city as well as
district level. The transportation of rescue teams as well as rescue to supply after the disaster
takes lot of time and energy due to rugged and treacherous terrains of the region is required.
More geological, geotechnical investigations should be carried out to document the active near
source seismogenic structure which would help in formulating safer design decisions. Although
natural calamities cannot be stopped but proper strategies and mitigation measures would
substantially decrease the level of hazard and damage.
For the seismic safety monitoring purposes, a Micro Seismic Monitoring System (MSMS) may be
installed in and around the Skardu City. Plan for MSMS is given as Appendix C.
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1.0 INTRODUCTION
As a part of the Master Planning for Skardu City 2040, this report deals with the micro-seismic
zonation and further development of building and land-use planning strategies and restrictions to
ensure mainstreaming of seismic hazards in the spatial planning and management of the city.
The proposed area of interest (Figure-1), starting from Hotto/Gamba to Hussainabad Skardu is
(approximately 135000 kanal), as the people are shifting to the area without any proper master
plan and haphazardly doing their business which will create trouble in future.
Skardu city is situated at an elevation of nearly 2,500 metres in the Skardu Valley, at the
confluence of the Indus and Shigar Rivers (Figure-1). The Indus River running through the region
separates the Karakoram from the Himalayas Glaciers from the Indus and Shigar valleys
broadened the Skardu valley between 3.2 million years ago up to the Holocene approximately
11,700 years ago. The city of Skardu is located along the bank of Indus River, surrounded by
mountains with no greenery and sand dunes. Near the city, the river is wide and still. The beauty
of the valley is enhanced by its fresh spring water, delicious fruits, the blue water of the Indus
River, historical sites, lakes, and pleasant weather, which attract tourists from around the world.
The city of Skardu is the main urban centre and headquarters of the Baltistan Division, a strategic
northern region of Pakistan bordering China, Afghanistan, and India.
Figure-1. Topographic location of Gamba/Hotto, Skardu & Hussainabad (Google Map).
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1.1 Tasks to Address as per Technical Proposal
 Seismic Hazard Risk Evaluation of Study Area

 To provide resilience improvement subject plan of the Skardu City 2040.
 To develop strategies related to the development of the building and land use planning in
the context of seismic zoning.
 To prepare strategies regarding restrictions to ensure mainstreaming of seismic hazard in
the spatial planning and management of the Skardu City 2040.
 Planning for the installation of micro seismic monitoring system.
2.0 METHODOLOGY FOR SEISMIC HAZARD MICROZONATION

Seismic hazard micro-zonation of the study area Skardu City 2040 is required to define zones
with different level of seismic hazard due to earthquakes keeping in view topographical,
geological and local site characteristics and incorporating the results in future spatial planning
and management of the Skardu City 2040.
The main points of the methodology to be adopted for the seismic hazard micro-zonation of the
Skardu City 2040 is briefly described below:
1. Collection and review of available data about regional geology and tectonic setting of the
region covering about 200 km radius of the city center. Preparation of tectonic map, using
available information, to show the major tectonic features of the region.
2. Preparation of a historical and instrumental seismicity Catalogue of the region
incorporating data from different local and international sources. From this set of data, a
comprehensive earthquake Catalogue for 200 km radius of the Skardu City center will be
developed.
3. Generate a seismotectonic map by combining the above two maps for the definition of all
the potential earthquake sources effecting the study area.
4. Review seismic parameters for existing Projects in and around Skardu City.
5. Based on the Building Code of Pakistan (2021) recommendations, Seismic Hazard
Evaluation using “Probabilistic Hazard Evaluation procedure (PSHA)” established on area
and/or fault sources, determination of recurrence relationship and activity rate of each
source model and determination of PGA at specific points with 10% probability of
exceedance in 50 years (i.e., a return period of 475 years). Using licensed state-of-the-art
Windows based “EZFRISK” seismic hazard evaluation software developed by Fugro
Consultants USA. Based on the results of PSHA, PGA with 10% probability of
exceedance in 50 years will be prepared for the rock level condition.
6. Seismic hazard evaluation using deterministic hazard evaluation procedures (DSHA)
based on most critical tectonic sources around the study area to establish deterministic
scenario. Based on the results of the DSHA analysis, seismic design parameters
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associated with deterministic scenario will be suggested for the soft-rock, hard soil and
soft soil level conditions.
7. Site characterization study using:
 Available surface geologic maps of the study area.
 Available geotechnical borehole data (SPT, CPT) of the study area (to be
collected with the help of Client).
 Estimation of depth to Engineering bedrock using available borehole data.
 Based on the above data, the Skardu City 2040 will be divided into micro zones
with different site characterization (soft rock, hard soil, soft soil).
8. Estimation of seismic design parameters for areas having different Local site
characteristics.
9. Estimation of liquefaction potential of soils and estimation of liquefaction hazard.
10. Estimation of landslide/slope failure hazard associated with seismic activity.
11. Integration of seismic associated hazard on GIS platform to develop seismic micro-
zonation map of the study area based on:
 Geomorphologic/geotechnical attributes
 Seismological attributes
12. Integration of the seismic hazard micro-zonation map and comments of all findings in the
concept master plan.
13. To prepare strategies related to the development of buildings and land use planning in the
context of seismic zoning.
14. Integration of the seismic hazard micro-zonation map and all findings in the final master
plan.
15. Planning for the installation of Micro Seismic Monitoring System (MSMS) in and around
the Skardu City.
3.0 REGIONAL TECTONIC FRAMEWORK

Pakistan is located along one of the most seismically active regions of the world due to its
peculiar regional tectonic environment (Figure-2). Northern Pakistan region is particularly active
that has experienced devastating earthquakes in the past causing damage to the physical
infrastructures and loss of human lives. The most recent strong earthquake that has occurred in
the region is the Mw 7.6 Kashmir-Hazara October 08, 2005 earthquake, resulting in 72,763
fatalities and 6,8697 injuries alone in Pakistan (Rossetto and Peiris 2009). Similar earthquakes
are likely to occur in the future, and it is thus important to evaluate the seismic performance of
structures based on reliable ground motion scenarios. Consideration of these facts, the past
seismicity history and the presence of active tectonic features warrant careful assessment of
ground motions and calculation of structures in a quantifiable way for the region. In North
Pakistan, the western Karakoram region has a remarkable history of seismicity, extreme climate,
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and a diverse topographical setting, such as valleys, ridges, and slopes. The Northern parts of
Pakistan are near to the collisional boundaries of Eurasian and Indian plates margins and
therefore seismically very active (Figures 3 through 6).
Figure-2. Seismicity distribution of Pakistan (Dr. Sarfraz PhD Thesis 2016)
Northern and western sections of Pakistan are more sensitive to earthquake activity than the
other segments because they are surrounded by the micro plates of Afghanistan, Iran and India.
Main Central Thrust (MCT), Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT), Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and
Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) are the major faults located in Northern Pakistan. The area also
includes two Syntaxial Bends, known as Nanga Parbat Haramosh Massif (NPHM) and Kashmir
Hazara, where the rocks strata are folded around this syntax and are subject to a 90 0 “rotation”
from one side to the other side (Figures 3 through 6). Seismic data indicates that movements
along these faults and Syntaxial Bends are the major sources of significant and destructive
earthquakes.
Based on current knowledge of the region, the Skardu Valley is located in the collision zone of
the Indian and Eurasian plates; with “High Seismic Risk”, corresponding to Seismic Design
Category (SDC) “D” of the International Building Code 2006 and Seismic Zone III of Uniform
Building Code (UBC). Also Building Code of Pakistan (BCP) 2007 and 2021 has placed it in Zone
3 of significant seismic danger.
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Therefore, the Skardu City is facing a severe earthquake hazard potential. Moreover, within the
scenario of the October 08, 2005 Kashmir-Hazara earthquake of Pakistan it becomes important
to be very cautious regarding the seismic hazard assessment and seismic micro zonation for
such an important location while working on its Master Plan 2040.
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Figure-3 Generalized tectonic map of northern Pakistan, showing subdivisions of the
Himalayan Mountains (modified after Gansser 1981; Kazmi and Rana 1982).
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Figure-4. Tectonic map of Northern Pakistan displaying major faults. [EERI Special
Report 2006], (EERI = Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, USA).
3.1 Seismotectonic of Skardu Region
The Skardu Region (area of 200 km radial distance around Skardu City), of the western
Karakoram has been known for instabilities due to moderate to major earthquakes. Seismically
active fault lines (Figures 3 through 6) are located in this region that could make the population
vulnerable to this disaster. The root cause of most seismic events can be associated to tectonic
processes in the upper portions of the earth crust. The earth crust is divided into several plates.
Build-up of strain/strain within these plates or margins is due to the deformations taking place as
results of movements along or relative to the interfaces or margins of the plates.
In the Skardu Region of Gilgit-Baltistan (Western Himalayas), the seismic activity is associated
with the micro earthquakes and macro earthquakes of Mw ≥ 4.0, and largely coincides with the
surface trace of the Himalayan Main Central Thrust (MCT) rather than with the Himalayan Main
Boundary Thrust (MBT) which represents the structural boundary.
Along the Skardu Valley a large amount of seismicity is also contributed from the Karakoram
strike-slip fault present about 55 km NE of the city. Many macro events having Mw ≥ 4.0, have
been located from this fault. Direction of the horizontal compression in the region has been
inferred from the focal mechanism solutions. The direction of crustal stress in the Skardu Valley
is NE-SW, perpendicular to the line of plate collision and the MBT. In the Hindu Kush region, the
earthquake mechanism is generally thrust faulting occasionally normal faulting whereas in the
Kashmir, the earthquakes mainly show thrust faulting mechanism with a clear NE-SW
compression.
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4.0 SEISMOTECTONIC AND GEOLOGIC SETTING OF NORTHERN PAKISTAN
4.1 General
The geodynamics and geology of the Karakorum-Himalayan region in Northern Pakistan are
characterized by the interactions of three principal tectonic units (Figure-5):
 The Asian Mass (Eurasian Plate);

 The Kohistan Island Arc; and
 The Indian Mass (Indian Plate).
These units have distinctly different lithology and structural settings and are separated by two
major branches of the Indus suture (Tahirkheli, et al., 1979; Treloar, et al., 1990; Khan, et al.,
1997). Both sutures are marked by the occurrence of a mélange including ultramafic rocks, the
southern one also having a wedge of garnet granulite’s considered to have recrystallized at a
depth of more than 40 km.
The geodynamic framework of Northern Pakistan is characterized by the collision and

coalescence of Eurasian and Indian Continental Plates, which were once separated by the
oceanic domains, and creation of the Kohistan Island arc in the late Cretaceous. The collisional
process started in the late Eocene to early Oligocene with the formation of the Himalayan
Ranges and this process still continues. Relative to Eurasia, the Indian plate is still moving
northwards at a rate of around 4 cm/year. The subduction of the Indian plate beneath the
Eurasian plate has resulted in folding and thrusting of the upper crustal layers near the collisional
boundary. The thrusting has been depicted from north to south in the shape of MKT (Main
Karakoram Thrust), MMT (Main Mantle Thrust), MBT (Main Boundary Thrust) and SRT (Salt
Range Thrust) the locations of which are shown in Figures 3 through 6.
Structural geometry shows that the duplex stacks in nappe structures became younger away
from the suture zone in the opposite direction that the footwall plate is moving. Thus, for the
Northern Pakistan region, the older thrusts are near the Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) or suture
zone and the youngest thrusts are farther south along the Salt Range Thrust, well within the India
plate (Figures 3 through 6). The Indian subcontinent has been colliding with the Eurasian
subcontinent over the last 30 to 40 million years (Aitchison et al., 2007). During this period, the
continental lithosphere longer than 2,000 km has been shortened into the massive mountain
ranges and elevated plateaus of central Asia.
The Himalaya-Karakoram-Tibet orogen System is one of the most fascinating tectonic zones on
the Earth as a natural laboratory and cradles for various geodynamic concepts like continental-
island arc collision, extrusion tectonics, channel flows in the convergent orogenic belts, inverted
metamorphism, monsoon-control erosion affecting the tectonics, present day crustal deformation
and seismicity. The high mountainous belt is the result of collision between the Indian-Eurasian
plates during the late Cretaceous and Cenozoic.
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Figure-5. Generalized Tectonic Map of Northern Pakistan; by GSP.
The most complete and accessible cross-section through various tectonic units of the Himalayan,
Trans-Himalayan and Karakoram mountains is in the Northern Pakistan where one can visualize
the late Mesozoic subduction of the Neo-Tethyan oceanic lithosphere along the Northern Suture
Zone (NSZ) and the Indus Tsangpo Suture Zone (ITSZ), which is followed by intense crustal
shortening in the Himalaya during the Cenozoic continent-continent collision (Honegger et al.,
1982).
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Figure-6 Seismotectonic fault System of Northern Pakistan including Skardu
From Searle et al. (1999).
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The geology of Northern Pakistan provides insight into the evolution of the south Asian margin
since the Paleozoic and is dominated structurally by the Northern Suture Zone (NSZ), an 800 km
long dextral strike-slip fault that bounds western Tibet, extending from the Pamirs, in northern
Pakistan to Gar Basin in southwest Tibet. Though numerous details are now available of the
southern segment of the Himalaya (Gansser, 1964), but still there is a lack of literature about this
important segment, where the linkage between the Himalayan and Karakoram mountains can be
visualized through the contacts of the Indian and Asian plates particularly north of Skardu Valley.
The geology of northern Pakistan is a superb example of continental collision tectonics. In this
area, the three of the world’s greatest mountain ranges converge, the Himalayas, the Karakoram,
and the Hindukush. The mountain building process that formed these ranges commenced in
Cretaceous time when Indian plate started moving and was carried northward (Scotese et al.,
1988). During that time (i.e., Early Cretaceous) Karakoram terrane sutured with eastern
Hindukush along the Tirich Mir fault (Zanchi et el., 2000; Hildebrand et al, 2001).
Soon after, the intra-oceanic Kohistan arc formed over a subduction zone that dipped beneath
the arc, either to the south or to the north (Khan et al. 1997). It is widely accepted that the
northward movement of India was concurrent with the accretion to Asia of an intra-oceanic arc
system, the Kohistan arc that collided with Asia along the Shyok Suture or MKT. The southern
margin of Asia, including the Kohistan arc, then became an Andean type convergent margin, until
India collided with Asia. Thrusting of the Kohistan terrane southward over the northern Indian
plate margin along the Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) probably took place in Late Cretaceous or
Paleocene time and was completed by 55Ma, forming the Indus Suture Zone (Searle et al.,
1999).
A detailed description of the salient features of the Eurasian plate, Kohistan Island and the Indian
plate are given below:
4.2 The Eurasian Plate
The physiographic divisions of the southern part of the Eurasian Plate in Northern Pakistan
include the Northern Karakorum Tethyan Zone, the Karakorum Batholith, and Volcanic and
Metasediments south of the Karakorum Batholith. The Eurasian Plate is bordered to the south by
the Northern Suture, which consists of an almost chaotic arrangement of large lenses, each
several kilometres long and several tens of meters wide, of highly varied sedimentary,
metamorphic, and igneous rocks in a matrix of chloritoid slates. The whole assemblage has the
appearance of a major mélange with no simple repetitions, as expected in an imbricate zone.
This tectonic zone is considered to mark the suture between the Kohistan sequence to the south
and the Eurasian Plate to the north. There is no evidence of blue-schists, of obducted high
pressure granulite’s or of an ophiolite, but instead large tectonic lenses of a mélange.
4.3 Kohistan Island Arc
The Kohistan Island Arc was formed in the mid-Cretaceous and sutured to Asia around 100 to 85
million years ago. India later collided with the arc after continued subduction beneath the arc
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complex, now accreted to the active continental margin. Nearly 50 to 55 million years ago, the
two continental plates collided at this junction.
Tremendous amount of pressure created caused the Earth’s crust to buckle, producing large
horizontal and vertical displacement and also producing the mountains of the Karakoram.
The principal rock units of the Kohistan Island Arc include, from south to north include:
• Jijal Complex: granulite, mafics, and ultramafics
• Kamila Amphibolite Complex: mostly norites
• Chilas Complex: mafic and ultra-mafic layered complex of gabbros, norites, and dunnite
intersected by dikes and seams of anorthosite and chromite
• Kohistan Batholith: various calc-alkaline intrusive
• Kohistan Arc Sequence: various meta-sedimentary units and volcanic units typical of an
island arc and fore-arc setting.
Kohistan is an intra-oceanic island arc bounded by the Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) to the south
and the Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT) to the north. This E-W oriented arc is wedged between
the northern promontory of the Indian crustal plate and the Karakoram block. Gravity data
modelling indicates that the MMT and MKT dip northward at 35˚ to 50˚ and that the Kohistan arc
terrain is 8 to 10 km thick (Malinconico, 1989).
Seismological data suggests that the arc is underlain by the Indian crustal plate (Seeber and
Armbuster, 1979, Fineti et al., 1979). The northern and western part of the arc, along MKT, is
covered by a sequence of Late Cretaceous to Paleocene volcanic and sedimentary rocks. The
central part of the arc terrain is mainly composed of Kohistan Batholith which comprises an early
(110-85 Ma) suite of gabbro and diorite, followed by more extensive intrusions of gabbro, diorite
and granodiorite (85-40 Ma) which are intruded by much younger dykes and sills of leucogranite
(30-26 Ma).
The southern part of Kohistan is comprised of a thick sequence of mafic and ultramafic rocks.
These rocks may be divided into three tectono-metamorphic complexes separated by major
thrust zones. The Chilas Complex forms the northern and upper unit. It comprises layered norites
and gabbros metamorphosed to granulite facies. It is characterized by a series of south-verging
folds. It has been thrusted southwards over the Kamila Amphibolites Complex. The latter consists
of amphibolites, meta-gabbro and orthogneisses. This sequence comprises a highly tectonised
shear zone. Southward, it is thrusted over the Jijal Complex which forms a tectonic wedge
between the Kamila Shear zone and the MMT.
The Jijal Complex is largely comprised of garnet-pyroxene-granulites and ultramafic rock

(Tahirkheli and Jan, 1979; Coward et al., 1986; Khan et al., 1993; Treloar et al., 1990; Miller et
al., 1991).
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4.4 Indian Plate
The bedrock suites south of the Kohistan Island Arc and the southern suture zone include those
forming the pre-collisional stratigraphy of the Indian Plate plus the syn- and post-tectonic material
eroded from the mountain ranges of the Himalayas, Karakorum, Hindukush, and Pamirs.
The principal geologic units are:
➢ Salt Range. The Salt Range defines the Frontal Thrust of the Himalayas, a thin-
skinned structure riding on an evaporite decollement. The topographic relief of the Salt
Range is produced by blind thrusts and ramp anticlines.
➢ Molasse. Molasse sequences of detrital sediments form the Margalla Hills and the
Punjab Plains. All tectonism is thin skinned with numerous southward-propagating
thrusts that have produced numerous imbricate zones. The sedimentary sequences
making up the Murree Series found in the project area belong to this grouping.
➢ Hazara Sediments. The Hazara metasedimentary belt is largely composed of

Precambrian to Early Mesozoic sediments. The Precambrian sequence is composed of
quartz schist, graphitic schist, marble and gneiss overlain by thick sequence of slate,
phyllite and greywacke sandstone. The Precambrian sequence is unconformably
overlain by quartzite and argillite.
➢ Mansehra Batholith. Imbricated slices of this granitic batholith, intruded into the
metamorphic cover, are exposed in the Hazara Syntaxis. It is Cambrian in age and
obviously pre-exists collision.
➢ Metamorphic Cover. This consists of late Precambrian-early Cambrian metasediments,

which have undergone a Palaeozoic low-grade metamorphism and are overlain by pre-
collisional Mesozoic sediments. These were further metamorphosed and thrusted in
the foothill of the MMT synchronous with full collision.
➢ Nanga Parbat Group. Rocks of the Nanga Parbat Group represent units belonging to
the cratonic Gondwana basement, exposed in the Nanga Parbat-Haramosh Massif
syntaxis. The Proterozoic gneisses of the Indian Plate have their northernmost
exposure in the Nanga Parbat Syntaxis and represent the lowest structural levels of
the Indian Plate observed. They have been mapped and subdivided into three litho-
stratigraphical groups (Madin et al., 1989).
13
Figure-7. Seismotectonic Model of Northern Pakistan (Tectonic Aneurysm Model by
National Science Foundation USA,
www.ees.lehigh.edu/groups/corners/index.shtml)
5.0 MAJOR SEISMOTECTONIC FEATURES AROUND SKARDU VALLEY
It has been established that the major faults of Pakistan appear to be seismically quiet except at
the times of large earthquakes (e.g., Nakata et al., 1991). It seems that this silence (or seismic
gap) is at least true for the Himalayas. It represents a problem while conducting seismic hazard
evaluation as we can find a seismic gap in an area and it may be found inactive for larger time
periods than the monitoring record. Also, while a thrust regime clearly dominates in several
places of the study area, it is often difficult or impossible to associate specific seismic activity with
specific fault traces, and this leads to the conclusion that many faults may be blind.
The boundaries of major Lithological units within the Kohistan Island Arc (KIA) area are known to
be faulted based on geological mapping. The average rupture length of potential earthquake
faults in the Kohistan province is considered to be in the range of 100 km, based on examination
of map trace lengths and field observations of features during geo-tectonic investigations. The
Kohistan Oceanic Arc is bounded in the north by the Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT) and in the
south by the Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) (Figure-6). Along the MKT the region is sutured to the
Asiatic mass/Asian Plate, including the Eurasian Continent and Karakoram micro-continental
blocks. The territory of Kohistan covers about 36000 km2.
Major faults in and around Skardu Valley are described on next page:
14
5.1 Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT)
The Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT) represents the collision zone of the southern margin of the
Eurasian plate in Asia and extends into the Baltistan area through Hashupa and Machie in the
Shigar and Shyok valleys, respectively. This fault forms the northern boundary of the Kohistan
Island Arc and runs eastward to join Indus suture zone in upper Himalayas and terminates at its
junction with the Karakoram fault. In the Chitral and Gilgit area, the rocks of the Karakoram
Batholith are thrusted over the rocks of Kohistan Batholith along the MKT (Figure-7).
MKT is a high angle, seismically active thrust with a large number of earthquakes of low to
medium Intensity. It is considered that rupture along the MKT during an earthquake could take
place over a large area and could involve a relatively long portion of the fault system. This
equates to known ruptures on smaller boundary structures elsewhere in the Himalaya and the
fact that the fault zone is comparatively straight over significant distances (>100 km).
The MKT is the collision zone of the southern margin of the Eurasian plate and extends into
Baltistan through the Hashupa, Shigar, and Shyok valleys, respectively. MKT is a seismically
active thrust fault that has a high angle along which many earthquakes occurred. It represents
the collision zone of the southern margin of the Eurasian plate in Asia and extends into the
Baltistan area through Hashupa and Machie in the Shigar and Shyok valleys, respectively. This
fault forms the northern boundary of the Kohistan Island Arc and runs eastward to join Indus
suture zone in upper Himalayas and terminates at its junction with the Karakoram fault (Figure-
7). In the Chitral and Gilgit area, the rocks of the Karakoram Batholith are thrusted over the rocks
of Kohistan Batholith along the MKT.
5.2 Main Mantle Thrust (MMT)
The MMT is the suture zone between the Indian plate and the Kohistan Island Arc. This zone is
marked by the presence of upper mantle and lower crustal rocks on the Kohistan side and
exhumed deep lower crustal rocks such as blue schist and eclogite on the Indian side. The MMT
extends from Nawagai (Mohmand Agency) in the west to the north of Narran (Kaghan Valley) in
the east, where it takes a north-eastward bend towards the east of Bunji and gets truncated by
Raikot Fault. The MMT was originally defined as the tectonic boundary between the metamorphic
shield and platform rocks of the Indian plate hinterland and dominantly mafic and ultramafic rocks
of the Kohistan-Ladakh arc complex in Pakistan (Tahirkheli et al., 1979).
DiPietro et al. (2000, 2008) suggest that the MMT contact can be defined as a series of faults of
different age and tectonic history that collectively define the northern margin of the Indian plate in
Pakistan. On this basis, the faults that define the MMT vary in age from Quaternary to possibly as
old as Late Cretaceous. Discontinuous lenses of ophiolite mélange, which overlie the MMT
contact and intervene between the Indian plate and the Kohistan Island Arc, are considered to be
part of an MMT zone that is equivalent with the Indus suture zone. Auxiliary structures associated
with the MMT include imbricate thrusts and shears parallel to it, including the Kamila Shear Zone.
Towards the east, the major north-south striking Raikot Fault zone, which together with its
associated structures, exhibits remarkable neo tectonic features with recently located
earthquakes between November 2002 and January 2003 (DiPietro et al., 2000). Ruptures on the
MMT are thought to be limited to comparatively short segments of the system of faults, shears,
and sutures. This assumption is supported by the mapping of the fault trace, which is remarkably
sinuous.
15
Majority of recorded earthquakes in this region occur deeper than 20 km and potentially reflect
movement on the fault plane of the MMT. In area east of Kharg along Indus Kohistan, where
large ophiolite slices are absent, the MMT is represented by the Kohistan-Raikot Fault system
and by faults and mylonite zones that define the northern and eastern flanks of the Nanga
Parbat-Haramosh massif (Figures 6 & 7). West of Kharg, the MMT is represented by the
Shergarh fault at Kharg, the Kohistan fault in the Indus syntaxis, the Kishora fault in Swat, and
the Kohistan fault near Chakdara. Further west, the MMT comprises the Nawagai fault along the
west side of the Malakand slice, imbricate faults along the northern margin of the Dargai
melange, the Dargai fault at Qila and Nawe Kili, and the Nawagai faults to the Afghan border
(Figure 7). West of Kharg, the MMT would be bounded on the north side by the Kohistan fault
and on the south side by the Shergarh-Kishora-Dargai-Nawagai fault system. All of these
features are described in more detail in DiPietro et al. (2000).
5.3 Main Boundary Thrust (MBT)
The most significant and active tectonic feature of regional extent is the Main Boundary Thrust
(MBT). It is the main frontal thrust of Himalayan Range, which runs along the Himalayan arc for
almost 2500 km from the Assam in the east to Kashmir and Parachinar in the west. MBT along
with other associated thrusts forms a sharp conspicuous Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis. This
syntaxial bend is the most dominant tectonic feature of the area as all local major fault systems
and geologic structures follow its trend. On the west side of syntaxial knot, the MBT initially
follows a rather southwest trend and then extend westward reaching Parachinar.
Near its surface trace, the MBT dips northward at a steep angle, which becomes sub-horizontal
with depth. Islamabad-Rawalpindi area is located at a close distance south of the western limb of
the MBT.
A number of large to major earthquakes have occurred along Himalayan Arc east of the Hazara-
Kashmir syntaxis during the last two centuries, which places it amongst the most active regions
of the world. A lot of seismicity recorded during the last century is associated with surface and
subsurface extensions of MBT and other associated thrusts. Based on this data, Seeber et al.
(1981) have shown that great earthquakes occurring along Himalayan Arc are probably related
to slips taking place along this quasi-horizontal surface (detachment).
5.4 Karakoram Fault

The Karakoram fault is an oblique-slip fault system in the Himalayan region across India and
Asia. The slip along the fault accommodates radial expansion of the Himalayan arc, northward
indentation of the Pamir Mountains, and eastward lateral extrusion of the Tibetan plateau.
Current plate motions suggest that the convergence between the Indian Plate and the Eurasian
Plate is around 44±5 mm per year in the western Himalaya-Pamir region and approximately
50±2 mm per year in the eastern Himalayan region. The creation of the Karakoram fault started
with the closing of the ancient Tethys Ocean seaway which once separated the two modern
continents of Asia and India. The Karakoram fault itself does not trace a plate boundary, except
for where it possibly ends in the Indus-Yarlung Suture Zone. The original thrusting occurred by
linking existing thrust faults in what is now the Pamir Mountains starting between 17 and 20
million years ago.
16
The Karakoram fault was a right lateral slip fault starting approximately 20 million years ago.
Approximately 14 million years ago the fault changed to a predominately normal fault. This
conclusion is based on argon dating. Around 10-11 million years ago the Karakoram fault had
become trans-tensional and extended southwest into Tibet. The southwest extension is marked
by the Karakoram fault crossing the active South Kailas Thrust in the vicinity of present-
day Mount Kailas. It is suggested that a late Cretaceous-Eocene granite batholith had been offset
1000 km dextrally along the Karakoram fault based on mapping in the central Karakoram, in
nearby Ladakh-Zanskar, and in south Tibet. Some researchers suggest that this might be
incorrect due to associating granite that was never part of the same batholith. Others researchers
work have shown 600 km of right lateral slip since 23 million years ago, and possibly starting 34
million years ago, based on U-Pb dating. Slip in this model has been transferred into the Indus-
Yalu suture zone, as well as large scale boudinage. Research in the early 1990s suggested that
this slip was transferred into the South Tibetan Detachment. Another suggestion is that the
Karakoram fault is offset at least 500 km as measured by the offset of late Palaeozoic granites in
the Kunlun batholith. Most researchers tend to agree with the lower slip estimates. Currently
some researchers believe that the Karakoram fault merges and terminates into the Indus-Yalu
suture zone at Mount Kailas
6.0 GEOLOGY OF SKARDU VALLEY
Due to the presence of three major mountain ranges geology of Skardu Valley is much diverse
consisting of Metamorphic and Igneous rocks. Most of the soil types are found in the Valley.
Mostly the Valley has Mesozoic and Palaeozoic -Precambrian soil. Skardu Valley is located
along the Kohistan-Ladakh terrane, formed as a magmatic arch over a Tethyan subduction zone
that was later accreted onto the Eurasian Plate (Figure-8). The stone in the Skardu region is
Katzara schist, with a radiometric age of 37 to 105 million years. Numerous complex granitic
pegmatites and a few alpine-cleft metamorphic deposits are found in the Skardu Valley and its
tributaries. Adjacent to it, Shigar Valley contains the Main Karakorum Thrust separating the
metasediments (chlorite to amphibolite grade) on the Asian plate from the southern
volcanoclastic rocks of the Kohistan-Ladakh Island arc. Active erosion in the nearby Karakoram
Mountains has resulted in enormous deposits of sediment throughout the Skardu Valley.
A variety of gemstones is being mined in the Skardu Valley. These include beryl, tourmaline,
garnet, apatite, topaz, fluorite, zoisite, and axinite, mostly occurring in complex or zoned
pegmatites and metamorphic rocks. The valley remains a hub for global mountaineers from April
to October during summer, while winter remains snowy and freezing in the area. The majestic
valley also has impressive glaciers in Baltoro, Gyari and Gyong in the Siachen region. The city of
Skardu is located along the bank of Indus River, surrounded by mountains with no greenery and
sand dunes. Near the city, the river is wide and still. The valley is often snowbound in winter.
Roads in and out of Skardu can be blocked for several days and air travel is the only feasible
alternative to reach other parts of the country.
The igneous rocks of this complex display several phases of tectonic deformation during
which a penetrative tectonic fabric was generated. During this ttectonic genesis the basic
rocks were deformed into a series of recumbent south-verging isoclinal anticlines
17
separated by tight narrow synclines. The sub-horizontal fold axis and the northerly
dipping regional tectonic layering mostly trend roughly east west.
Figure 8: Geological map of Skardu District. (With thanks from Department of

Geosciences, Baltistan University, Hussainabad, Skardu)
The exposed rocks range in age from pre-Cambrian to recent and are composed of igneous and
metamorphic rocks of various types. The general structural trend in the Karakoram ranges along
the Skardu Valley in the NW-SE direction (Figure-8). The topography of the area is demarcated
by steep-walled glacially scoured valleys dominated by arete and horn geometries. Tectonically
the area is in the active collision zone of the Indian and Eurasian plates (Figure-6). The crustal
shortening, active faulting, and subduction are continuing with convergence and uplift rates of
~4–5 cm/year and ~7mm/year, respectively.
The geological setting of Kohistan Island Arc was depicted by many researchers in the form of
regional geologic maps, like those developed by Bard et al. (1983) and by Petterson (2018).
Based on these maps, Burg (2006) developed a representative subsurface cross-section, which
is shown in Figure 7 & 8. These maps show that the subduction tectonics of the Kohistan Island
Arc are similar to that present in the Himalayas, where the north-dipping Main Boundary Thrust
(MBT) and Main Central Thrust (MCT) become sub-horizontal at depth. The MMT is a regional
feature similar in nature to that of the MBT below the Himalaya. In the Himalayas, large
earthquakes along the MBT and the MCT have been mainly associated with slip along ramps in
18
the decollement dipping at shallower angle towards north. However, the MMT is of small regional
extent compared to the MBT, and the Kohistan Island Arc is not as active as the Himalayas.
7.0 SEISMOTECTONIC OF SKARDU VALLEY
Skardu Valley is situated on the Kohistan Island Arc (~100 Ma), which is sandwiched between
the northern Asian/Eurasian continental plate and the southern Indian plate and bounded by the
MKT in the north and west and by the MMT to the south and east (Figure-9).
Due to the limitations in the available earthquake data in the region, it is difficult to correlate
specific earthquakes with specific faults, and it is possible that some faults may experience blind
ruptures. Some major faults in Pakistan, particularly those near the Himalayas, may be
seismically quiet except at the times of large earthquakes (e.g., Nakata et al., 1991). However,
the Skardu Valley is not located near the Himalayas and given the earthquake catalogue in the
region around the Valley, the occurrence rate of seismicity is not considered to be episodic and is
assumed to be stationary.
19
Figure-9 Seismotectonic Map North of Skardu Valley (after Hanson 1986 & 1989)
The Skardu Valley is sited very close to the boundary between Kohistan Island and the Eurasian
plate marked by MKT or Shyok suture zone. The most critical tectonic feature is the MKT. Other
important tectonic features of regional scale extent are the Karakoram fault (KF) in the northeast
and Ladakh side of Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) in the south. This area hosts some of the highest
peaks and are amongst the most complex and difficult terrains of the world, demonstrating a
great variety of rock types and structures (Figure-9). The seismic map of Pakistan indicates that
Skardu Valley and surrounding areas lies in a very active seismic zone. The seismic factor in this
neighbourhood according to Building Code of Pakistan, Seismic Provision-2007, has been
evaluated as Zone-III (Figure-10) of noticeable seismic danger with acceleration values of 0.24 to
0.32 g. Along to the immediate north and north-west lies the Zone-IV of significant seismic
danger with acceleration values of ≥ 0.32 g.
Some major seismic events that were widely felt and caused some destructions in the Skardu
region, during the recent past are the 1974 Pattan earthquake of mb 6.0, two Bunji earthquakes
of mb 5.3 and 6.0 that occurred in 2002, two Batagram earthquakes of mb 5.3 and 5.5 that took
place in 2004, the October 8, 2005 Kashmir Hazara earthquake with Mw 7.6 and the most recent
Gilgit earthquakes of December 30, 2019 with mb 5.1. It is believed that in August 1871 a
shallow focused earthquake Mw = 6.3 with epicentre in Gilgit city was felt widely (Jacob 1979).
It’s computed Intensity at Gilgit city was VIII, while at Skardu Valleys was VII on Modified Mercalli
Scale (MMS). However, later on till date, no earthquake with Mw ≥ 6.0 has been located from this
region.
8.0 NEOTECTONIC STUDIES AROUND SKARDU VALLEY
The neotectonics study of a region provided useful evidence of paleo-seismic activity of a region.
A number of studies were done by various researchers on the deformation of Late Quaternary
sediment in upper Himalayas. Binita Phartiyal and Anupam Sharma (2009) while studying the
soft-sediment deformation structures in the Late Quaternary sediments of Ladakh found evidence
for multiple phases of seismic tremors in the northwestern Himalayan region.
A number of neotectonics studies have been done by various researchers on the deformation of
Late Quaternary sediment in upper Himalayas. Binita Phartiyal and Anupam Sharma (2009)
while studying the soft-sediment deformation structures in the Late Quaternary sediments of
Ladakh found evidence for multiple phases of seismic tremors in the northwestern Himalayan
region. The exposed Quaternary sections of Ladakh show evidence of seismicity during the late
Quaternary. Multiple levels of soft-sediment deformation structures (seismites) are recorded from
the Quaternary sediments of the Spituk-Leh, along Indus Suture Zone (ISZ) and the Khalsar
palaeo-lakes, along Shyok Suture Zone (SSZ) and Karakoram Fault (KF).
The studied sections by various Geologists and Seismologists are evidences of two major
tectonically formed paleo-lakes. The release of stress along the ISZ, SSZ and KF, may have
been responsible for inducing seismicity in the area during the late Quaternary times which may
have caused liquefaction as a direct consequence of permanent deformation of ground surface
due to earthquakes of large magnitudes (Intensity > V). The evidence of neo tectonic features
such as, tilting of the recent deposits along the river terraces, folding and faulting within the
20
recent deposits, coarsening upwards of the deposited materials, active landslides along the MKT,
crushed and brecciated zone and structural features were found. These evidences confirm the
activeness of the Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT).
9.0 BUILDING CODE OF PAKISTAN
A building code is a set of rules that specify the standards for constructed objects such as
buildings and non-building structures. Buildings must conform to the code to obtain planning and
construction permission from concerned authorities. The main purpose of building codes is to
protect public health, safety and general welfare as they relate to the construction and occupancy
of main buildings and structures.
Seismic building codes result in earthquake-resistant buildings, but not earthquake-proof

buildings. Seismic codes are intended to protect people inside buildings by preventing collapse
and allowing for safe evacuation. Structures built according to the Buildingcode should resist
minor earthquakes undamaged, resist moderate earthquakes without significant structural
damage, and resist severe earthquakes without collapse.
Pakistan lies on a seismic junction of three major tectonic plates of the world including Eurasian,
Indian and Arabian. The devastating Kashmir-Hazara Earthquake of October, 2005 resulted in
87,000 casualties, 780,000 buildings were destroyed and 2.5 million people became homeless
with economic loss around US $ 2.3 billion. During that depth of difficulty and National disaster,
PEC took one step further and constituted a high profile Task Force comprising of eminent
experts from academia, industry, Ministry of Housing & Works, Ministry of Science and
Technology, National Engineering Services Pakistan (NESPAK) along with allied stakeholders,
partier organizations and the never ending assistance provided by the
International Code Council (ICC) and the American Concrete Institute (ACI) for development of
first-ever Building Code of Pakistan – Seismic Provisions in 2007.
Over a period of decade, the frequency of earthquakes has been gradually increasing in Pakistan
as per real-time recorded seismic data by Pakistan WAPDA and Pakistan Metrological
Department In fact, there were five major earthquakes ranging from 6.4 Mw to 7.5 Mw hit almost
all metropolis cities in Pakistan. Hence, the mandatory revision of the Code was very much
needed in view of seismic-resilient design with durable structural strength, modern typologies of
building construction and safe practices. For revision of the Code, PEC joined hands with the
World Bank, NED-UET, NDRMF, ICC and also constituted a high-profile Task Force on updating
of Building Code of Pakistan (2021).
Building Codes of Pakistan Seismic Provisions (BCPSP, 2007 & 2021), specified that a precise
seismic factor (to design a building) should possibly be higher than that concentrating in the
seismic zoning map of Pakistan. They stated design for PGA of 0.125g (acceleration due to
gravity) horizontal component acceleration value for average structures, and for 0.2g without
collapse for significant structures. For profound structures, micro level site-specific designs are
vital that take into account the strength of the underlying soil and bedrock and the region from
credible earthquake sources.
Construction of all building types is required to be followed according to rules and guidelines
mentioned in the Building Code of Pakistan (BCP) seismic provision 2007 and updated
21
November 2021. Site specific studies are required for special types of all the large civil structures
like all parts of Hydro Power Projects (HPP), all parts of small and large storage dams, bridges
and high-rise buildings.
Figure-10 Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) variation in Pakistan (BCP 2007 & 2021)
22
9.1 Soil Profile Types
Each Structural site shall be assigned a soil profile type based on properly substantiated soil
engineering characteristics using the site categorization procedure. Building Code of Pakistan
seismic provision 2007 has defined the soil profile types in following BCP Table-2.
9.2 Site Foundation Condition
For the seismic hazard assessment, the site foundation condition is best defined by Vs 30 which is
defined as the average shear-wave velocity (Vs) of subsurface material for the upper 30-m depth.
This is calculated from a Vs measurement presented in various formats. Because of the
gravitational influence, the property of ground materials is usually presented by, a "layered-earth
model" in which the earth's properties change only vertically and are represented by a collection
of distinctive layers. Each layer is then considered a homogeneous material with the same
seismic properties in S and P waves’ velocity (Vs and Vp) and density. In addition, because of
the more rapid property change at shallower depths, the thickness of each layer in a layered-
earth-model tends to be smaller at the top and increases with depth.
Calculation of the average Vs for a certain depth range (for example, top 30 m) can be
accomplished in two different ways: (1) based on relative thickness-contribution of each layer
(Method 1), and (2) based on the definition of velocity ─ total thickness (∑di) divided by total
travel time (∑ti) that is calculated by summation of thickness (di) divided by velocity (Vsi) of each
layer (Method 2).
23
The calculation of Vs30 in (m/sec) using the Method 2 is done by the formula:
Vs30 = ∑di / ∑ti = 30 / ∑(di/Vsi) (meters/sec) (1)

10.0 HISTORICAL SEISMICITY AND EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUE
Until the advent of instrumental records from seismological observatories at the beginning of the
20th century, intensity data collected from historical records were the only source of earthquake
information. The importance of intensity data is that it establishes some understanding of the
level of damage that can be expected to occur in a given region.
Pre-instrumental seismicity records include general accounts of injuries, loss to life, and damage
to property and infrastructure. Historical pre-instrument earthquake information has been
researched for other projects in Pakistan (such as for Tarbela Dam Project, Dasu Hydroelectric
Project and Diamer-Basha Dam Project) and several important historical earthquake catalogues
have been identified (Oldham, 1883; Heuckroth and Karim, 1970; Ambraseys et al., 1975;
Quittmeyer and Jacob, 1979).
Historical earthquake data helps to identify the seismicity patterns of an area and, in regions
where numerous earthquakes have occurred, can provide a basis for calculating the estimated
probability of future earthquake motion at the site considered. This is based on the assumption
that events similar to those which have occurred in the past could reoccur at or near the same
location. The lack of historical earthquakes, however, does not necessarily imply that the area
considered is aseismic.
It can be readily recognized that Northern Pakistan has been a region characterized by
consistent occurrence of historically documented earthquakes, although it is also evident that the
records are clearly incomplete. Since the 1700’s, the historical earthquake data for the northern
areas of Pakistan are few and mainly concentrated on the centres of colonial administration.
Important earthquakes for which damage data are available include:
➢ Aristobulus of Cassandreia described that the first known historical account of

seismicity of northern part of Pakistan in the fourth century B.C. He
accompanied Alexander on his expedition to India, who pointed out that the
country above the river Jhelum was subjected to earthquakes, which caused
the ground to open up so much that even the riverbeds were changed
(Ambraseys et al., 1975).
 An important historical earthquake occurring in northern Pakistan was the

destructive earthquake of 25 A.D., which ruined the city of Taxila, to which the
intensity of IX-X has been assigned (Ambraseys et al., 1975). The effect of this
earthquake can still be seen among the excavated remains of Jandail, Sirkap
and Dharmaraja near Taxila. The building methods after this earthquake
changed, including reduction in the height of buildings, improvements in
masonry bracing density, and making the foundations more secure, which can
still be observed in current structures in the area.
24
 On March 25, 1869, a large earthquake occurred in the Hindukush region and
was strongly felt at Kohat, Peshawar, Lahore, Gilgit-Baltistan and at Khodjend and
Tashkent with shaking that lasted 20 seconds.
 On May 22, 1871, a damaging earthquake was noted at Gilgit with and Skardu
many aftershocks. This earthquake was strong enough to be felt as far away as
Meerut and Agra in India.
 On January 20, 1902, a large earthquake caused damage in the Chitral area and
was felt widely in the Punjab and up to Shimla.
 On July 8, 1909, an earthquake caused destruction in the region of Mankial and

Kalam in the Swat valley where Lady Minot’s Hospital was damaged and many
houses collapsed, killing 10 people and cattle. The damage area extended to Dir,
Karori, and Alipura, and the earthquake was felt in Gilgit, Skardu, Besham, and to
the north up to Tashkent.
 The epicentral intensity of the historical earthquakes that occurred after the 1700’s
is estimated to be not greater than VIII on the Modified Mercalli (MM) intensity
scale.
10.1 Significant Earthquakes
Some important earthquakes that were felt in and around the Skardu City during last 50 years
are described below:
Harman Valley Earthquake of September 3, 1972
An earthquake of magnitude Mw 6.3 at a depth of 45.2 km struck the Harman Valley of Gilgit
Baltistan district on September 3, 1972. The epicentre of that earthquake was located in Kohistan
Island Arc at Latitude 35.94 degrees North and Longitude 73.33 degrees East, approximately 55
km northwest of Basha. In the epicentral area, the Intensity was felt as VII, while around Diamer
Basha and Skardu area, the Intensity was observed as IV. It has not been associated with any
tectonic structure within the area. The Fault Plane Solution (FPS) for the earthquake indicates a
thrust fault mechanism (NEAC, 2004).
Pattan Earthquake of December 28, 1974
The destructive Pattan earthquake of December 28, 1974 occurred in the isolated Pattan,
Hazara, and Swat districts of Northern Pakistan. The epicentre was located at 35.0 degrees
North and 72.8 degrees East. The magnitude Mw 6.2 earthquake had a shallow focal depth and
was followed by numerous aftershocks. An official estimate of the number killed was 5,300 with
approximately 17,000 injured. Most of the destruction was centered on the village of Pattan,
located about 160 km north of the capital city of Islamabad. The Pattan village was almost
completely destroyed. The epicentral region is characterized by steep-walled narrow canyons
and valleys. Most of the population was concentrated along the rivers. Much of the destruction
was caused by the numerous landslides and rockfalls which came tumbling down from high
25
above. The main road leading into the area was blocked for about 40 km by landslides and
rockfalls, hampering relief efforts. The government flew in emergency supplies by helicopter until
the roads were reopened on January 13, 1975. The Fault Plane Solutions (FPS) for this
earthquake indicates a thrust fault mechanism (NEAC, 2004).
Although the 1974 epicentre is located in the vicinity of the Duber Kale fault, the strike of its fault
plane and the sense of motion are incompatible with that of the Duber Kale fault. The direction of
slip agrees with the overall deformation in the area. This is a thrust event with the greatest
principal stress striking NNE and the fault plane striking WNW. Maximum Intensity in the
epicentral area was VIII (Ambraseys et al., 1975).
Darel Valley Earthquake of September 12, 1981
An earthquake with shallow depth (29.7 km) and magnitude Mw 6.1 struck the Darel valley of
Kohistan district on September 12, 1981. The epicentre of that earthquake was located at
Latitude 35.22 degrees North and Longitude 73.48 degrees East, approximately 75 km northwest
of Skardu. In the epicentral area, the Intensity was felt as VI, while around Skardu area, the
Intensity was observed as IV. It has not been associated with any known tectonic structure within
the area.
Astore Valley Earthquakes of November 2002
On November 1, 2002, a moderate earthquake of magnitude Mw 5.3 (at a depth of 33 km)

occurred in the Gilgit Baltistan areas of Pakistan. The epicentre was located about 55 km south
of Skardu city. The earthquake occurred at 33.56 degrees North and 74.64 degrees East, in the
Astore Valley, where the Intensity was observed as VI. Around Skardu city area, the observed
Intensity was IV–V (Iqbal, 2011).
On November 20, 2002, the region was rocked again by another large shallow earthquake with a
magnitude Mw 6.3 at a depth of 15 km. The epicentre was located at 35.52 degrees North and
74.66 degrees East, in the north-western part of Astore Valley. In the epicentral region, the
Intensity of earthquake was observed as VIII. The main shock was followed by a large number of
aftershocks, few of which were large enough to increase the damage caused by the main shock.
The occurrence of aftershocks lasted 40 days. The epicentre of the main shock was located at
about 75 km south of Skardu city, where Intensity was observed as VII. Around the Skardu City
the observed Intensity was estimated as V.
The FPS of both earthquakes indicate a dip of 480 with normal faulting (Iqbal, 2011). The
epicentres of these earthquakes lie near the interface of Kohistan Magmatic Arc and the Nanga
Parbat Haramosh Massif (NPHM), along the MMT-Raikot fault, near the town of Bunji. The area
also represents the northern boundary of the under thrusting Indian plate. This feature raises the
significance of the tectonic studies and study of active seismicity of the Skardu Valley. The entire
area is faulted and fractured and seismically active with history of quite a few moderate-
damaging earthquakes (Kazmi and Jan, 1997).
Bunji Earthquake of November 3, 2002
On November 3, 2002, a moderate earthquake with a magnitude of Mw 5.3 and shallow depth of
17 km occurred in the Gilgit Baltistan Areas of Pakistan. The epicentre was located in the Bunji
26
area, about 75 km southeast of the Skardu city. In and around the epicentre area, the Intensity of
this earthquake was observed as VI. The epicentre of the earthquake was located at 35.10
degrees North and 74.70 degrees East with as many as five aftershocks with magnitudes Mw
ranging from 3.7 to 4.2. In the Skardu Valley the observed Intensity was IV.
Kashmir Hazara Earthquake of October 8, 2005
A powerful earthquake with a magnitude of Mw 7.6 struck the northern part of Pakistan on
October 8, 2005 and caused widespread damage in Azad Kashmir and adjoining areas of
Hazara area of Pakistan. The epicentre of this large earthquake was located about 10 km
northeast of Muzaffarabad. This earthquake was felt for several minutes in Pakistan, Northern
India, and Afghanistan. It was also felt in Skardu City with Intensity of VII.
The heaviest damage was recorded in the towns of Balakot, Batal, and Batagram in Hazara and
Muzaffarabad, Bagh, and Rawalakot in Azad Kashmir where the entire population was severely
affected. Building collapse was also reported in Abbottabad and Islamabad. Serious cracks were
observed in many high-rise buildings in Islamabad. The death toll due to this earthquake
exceeded 80,000 people and millions were rendered homeless due to collapse of houses. The
earthquake was followed by a series of more than thousand aftershocks, hundreds of them
exceeding magnitude 4.0. The fault plane solution for the main shock given by Harvard Moment
Tensor Solution shows a predominant thrust motion and its strike is compatible with the
previously known strike of the Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT).
Gilgit Earthquakes of December 30, 2019
On December 30, 2019, an earthquake with magnitude Mw 5.4 was felt in the area of Gilgit
Baltistan. The epicentre of this earthquake was located at Latitude 35.59 degrees North and
Longitude 74.62 degrees East, approximately 23 km SSE of Gilgit. The city of Gilgit was shaken
with an Intensity of VI due to this earthquake. The Intensity of earthquake in the Skardu Valley
area was observed as V. Within two days, the earthquake was followed by a number of
aftershocks ranging between Mw 3.8 and 5.1.
Shounter Valley Earthquake of January 12, 2020
On January 12, 2020, a shallow-focused (10 km) earthquake of magnitude 5.1 was felt in most
parts of Gilgit Baltistan areas. The epicentre of this earthquake was located at Latitude 35.01
degrees North and Longitude 74.47 degrees East, about 52 km SE of Chilas, along the Shounter
valley. Its epicentral Intensity was VI, while in the area of Skardu City its observed Intensity was
IV, (emsc-csem.org of European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre).
Astore Valley Earthquakes of December 2021
On December 27, 2021, a moderate earthquake of magnitude Mw 5.3 (45 km) occurred in the
Astore valley of Gilgit Baltistan. Its epicentre was located about 65 km southeast of Skardu. The
earthquake occurred at Latitude 35.550 N and Longitude 74.830 E. Along the epicentral area the
Intensity was observed as VI, while in/around Skardu City it was V.
Skardu Earthquake of March 2022
27
A moderate earthquake with magnitude Mw = 5.3 was felt by many people in and around Skardu
City with Intensity V on March 16, 2022. Its epicenter 35.72 N and 75.22 E was located, 59 Km
NW of Skardu at a depth of 10 km. In the Skardu Valley its observed Intensity was VI.
11.0 INSTRUMENTAL EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUES
The instrumental recording of earthquakes in the region started in 1904, but very few seismic
stations were established in the South Asian region until the 1960’s. During the 1960’s, the
installation of high-quality seismographs under the World-Wide Standard Seismograph Network
(WWSSN) established by the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey in 1960 greatly improved the
quality of earthquake recording in this region and has resulted in a better understanding of the
seismicity of Pakistan. However, based on the limited number of local seismographs, the
complete understanding of the seismicity including the smaller magnitude events is still limited
and lacking for the region. In Pakistan and most other parts of the world, the instrumental seismic
record is too short and incomplete to develop a sample that is truly representative of the spatial
and temporal distribution of earthquakes over a large period. Nevertheless, available information
has been gathered for the period covering the last century and was used to perform an
assessment of the seismic hazard for the Skardu City area.
Earthquake catalogues have been one of the vital products of seismology. Homogeneous and
complete earthquake catalogues are compiled for different purposes and specific to certain areas
of seismology such as seismic risk, earthquake physics, and hazard analysis (Kagan, 2003;
Woessner and Weimer, 2005). Catalogue accuracy is one of the most important considerations
while quantifying any earthquake catalogue because of its influence on the obtained results
(Kagan, 2003). Obtaining accurate source parameters is a task which is simple in theory but a
really challenging one in practice given the limited density and quality of the seismographic
instruments in a region such as Pakistan.
Earthquake catalogues and reports, as well as online databases are the standard sources used
to collect the necessary information for compiling an earthquake catalogue. Some catalogues
offer high quality hypocentres, while others enclose lower quality hypocentres through carefully
researched damage reports and other information (Allen et al., 2009). Improvements in seismic
observation and catalogue reporting can be done by examining the catalogue properties (Kagan,
2003). Typically, a ranking preference is developed for multiple contributing catalogues in a
region in which a given earthquake is reported from multiple catalogue sources.
For the present study, a composite list of seismic events that occurred in the Project region and
recorded by seismographs has been prepared. It is based upon earthquake catalogues of
northern Pakistan prepared by NESPAK (2020), Waseem et. al. (2018), Pakistan Metrology
Department and the WAPDA Micro Seismic Monitoring System (MSMS) installed around large
dams in Northern Pakistan.
11.1 NESPAK Earthquake Catalogue
After the devastating Kashmir Hazara Earthquake of October 8, 2005, the Building Code of
Pakistan (Seismic Provisions, 2007) were prepared by seismic and geotechnical experts of
NESPAK for the Ministry of Housing & Works, Pakistan. For the purpose of preparing a PSHA
28
based seismic zoning map of Pakistan, a composite earthquake catalogue of instrumentally
recorded earthquakes for Pakistan was compiled by NESPAK. This catalogue is being updated
every year for use in the seismic hazard evaluation of the projects. For present study, the
catalogue was updated through December 2021.
For this catalogue, the instrumental earthquake data was collected from two sources. The first
one is based upon earthquakes recorded by regional seismic networks and the other is compiled
from a local network data catalogue. The regional data was compiled from earthquake listings of
International Seismological Centre (ISC) England, National Earthquake Information Centre
(NEIC) of US Geological Survey, Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), and earthquake
listing compiled by Quittmeyer and Jacob (1979). As the ISC listing is based on a regular re-
evaluation of the epicentral data, this listing was given preference over the others.
11.2 Waseem et al. (2018) Earthquake Catalogue
During 2018, a comprehensive earthquake catalogue including both historical and instrumental
events was published by Waseem et al. (2018) of the National Centre for Excellence in Geology,
Peshawar, Pakistan, for their various research projects. The earthquake catalogue compiled in
this study for the region (quadrangle bounded by the geographical limits 40–83° N and 20–40° E)
includes 36,563 earthquake events, which are reported as 4.0– 8.3 moment magnitude (Mw) and
span from 25 AD to 2016.
The catalogue includes earthquakes from Pakistan and neighbouring countries. For this
catalogue, earthquakes reported by local and international agencies as well as individual
catalogues are included. The events from this catalogue were included in the seismicity
catalogue only for events which were not reported in the NESPAK or local MSMS catalogues.
11.3 Pakistan WAPDA Micro Seismic Monitoring System Earthquake Catalogue
For the seismic safety monitoring of Tarbela Dam Project, Pakistan WAPDA installed a thirteen
station Micro Seismic Monitoring System (MSMS) in and around Tarbela Dam Project. After
going through various upgradations, it is operating till date. During the year 2010 two of its local
stations were relocated in Skardu and Chitral, to monitor the seismicity of the Satpara and Golan
Gol Hydro Power Projects.
A MSMS comprising of ten seismic stations was installed in and around the proposed Diamer
Basha Dam Project Pakistan WAPDA during August 2007. Additionally, a three station MSMS
was commissioned around the proposed Bunji Hydro Power Project during 2010. Both MSMS
remained in operation until December 2016. The microseismic events recorded by theese
networks are available from September 2007 through December 2016, although not on a
continuous basis. All these thirteen MSMS stations seismic data is available for seismicity SW off
Skardu City.
The earthquake data recorded by WAPDA local networks was collected and included in the
regional catalogue and given preference due to high accuracy of local networks. The duplicate
events were removed from the seismicity catalogue based on this ranking preference for the
contributing sources.
29
11.4 Focal Depth
In addition to the spatial distribution of earthquake epicentres, the distribution as a function of

depth of the observed earthquakes can be a critical parameterization in a seismic hazard
analysis. The distribution of earthquakes as a function of depth can help to define the depth of
the seismogenic zone in the Earth’s crust. This depth range of the seismogenic zone is observed
to vary around the world and is considered to be related to the larger regional tectonics. Often,
local seismograph networks make it possible to resolve hypocentral depths to within 1 to 2 km in
depth. However, this is true for areas in which the local seismic networks are well distributed as
is the case in California and Japan. For Pakistan, the same high-density distribution of seismic
instrumentation is not available; hence, the hypocentral depth uncertainty associated with the
observed seismicity is expected to be significantly larger.
For event locations and hypocentral depths reported from global teleseismic instrumentation
catalogues, (e.g., the ISC and the USGS) many hypocentral depths are assigned the default
value of 33 km. This assignment is based on the limitation of depth estimations from seismic
stations which are not closely distributed. Specifically, at teleseismic distances, the depth can
only be estimated accurately if the near-source surface reflection, the depth phase pP, can be
identified. Without special analysis, pP can only be identified as separate from the direct phase
P, once its delay corresponds to that of about 50 km depth. Hence, the teleseismic uncertainty in
the depth estimate of ‘shallow’ earthquakes is roughly ±25 km. Therefore, the depths given in the
ISC and USGS catalogues may not provide the robust estimate of the depth of future seismic
energy release.
12.0 CATALOGUE COMPILATION
A reliable and complete catalogue should include all earthquakes that have occurred in the
region reported by reliable sources and the earthquake magnitudes should be converted into a
single and consistent magnitude scale. For the Seismic Hazard Analysis and Micro Zonation of
Skardu City 2040, a composite earthquake catalogue was developed. The composite earthquake
catalogue was organized by combining all the earthquake catalogues described above.
The NESPAK catalogue was taken as main source of earthquake data because it contained
seismic events reported by various international and national agencies. Those seismic events,
which were missing from the NESPAK catalogue but contained in the Waseem et. al. (2018)
catalogue, were added in the composite catalogue. Seismic events with magnitudes ≥ 3.0 from
the WAPDA MSMS catalogue, not already included in the other two catalogues, were added in
the composite catalogue.
In the process of compiling the composite catalogue, care was taken to avoid including duplicate
seismic events. This composite catalogue includes all earthquake data from all available modern
30
instrumental catalogues (International & National) covering the period from January 1900 through
May 2022 (Appendix-B).
12.1 Catalogue Compilation and Magnitude Conversion
The seismic events with magnitude 3 and greater occurring within about 200 km radius of the
Skardu City, from January 1900 though May 2022, have been included in the composite
catalogue prepared for the present studies. The contributing reporting agencies have given a
variety of magnitudes: body-wave magnitude (mb), surface-wave magnitude (MS), Richter/local
magnitude (ML) or duration-magnitude (MD), etc.
In the case of a single event reported in different magnitude scales, the Mw scale is considered
superior to all other scales. Otherwise, mb and MS scales are preferred over ML scale. Since
attenuation relationships are based on magnitude of a given type, a single and consistent
magnitude type must be used.
As the majority of recent attenuation equations used in seismic hazard analysis are based on
moment magnitude (Mw), all the other magnitude types were therefore converted to moment
magnitude (Mw) using the following equations:
Conversion from MS and mb to Mw was achieved through following four equations suggested by
Scordilis (2006):
Mw = 0.67 MS + 2.07 for MS < 6.1 (2)
Mw = 0.99 MS + 0.08 for MS >6.1 (3)
Mw = 0.85 mb + 1.03 for mb < 6 (4)
Mw = 1.69 mb – 4.01 for mb > 6 (5)
For ML up to 5.7, the value of ML was taken equal to Mw as supported by operators of local
networks in Pakistan (Personal communication). It should be noted that the conversion of
earthquakes from ML to Mw is more uncertain for magnitudes less than 4 and that the recurrence
parameters developed for this study considered only events with magnitude greater than 4.
Conversion of ML to Mw beyond magnitude 5.7 was done by using the following five equations
suggested by Ambraseys and Bommer (1990) and Ambraseys and Bilham (2003):
0.82 (ML) – 0.58 (MS) = 1.20 (6)
MS = (0.82 (ML) – 1.20) / (0.58) (7)
Log Mo = 19.09 + MS for MS ≤ 6.2 (8)
31
Log Mo = 15.94 + 1.5 MS for MS > 6.2 (9)
Mw = (2/3) Log (Mo) – 10.7 (10)
where mb is the body–wave magnitude, MS is the surface-wave magnitude, ML is the local

magnitude, Mw is the moment magnitude, and Mo is the seismic moment. Using a two-step
process to estimate Mw for events with ML greater than 5.7 is not ideal, as it increases the
uncertainty generated in the catalogue due to magnitude conversion, but it is necessary due to
the limitations of available earthquake data in Pakistan.
12.2 Declustering of Earthquake Catalogue
In this seismic hazard analysis, it was assumed that earthquakes occur independently of each
other. Foreshocks and aftershocks are both temporally and spatially dependent on a mainshock.
Therefore, the earthquake catalogue was declustered (i.e., dependent events were identified and
removed), resulting in a catalogue composed of independent events. The composite catalogue
for this Project was declustered using the Reasenberg (1985) algorithm to remove dependent
events (aftershocks and foreshocks). The Reasenberg algorithm identifies events that occur
within time and spatial windows, termed clusters, with the largest event in the cluster being
named the main shock and the smaller earthquakes labelled as foreshocks or aftershocks. These
clusters are then replaced with the main shock earthquake. The resulting catalogue is assumed
to be events independent in space and time. This algorithm works well with catalogues that have
a large number of smaller earthquakes (such as the catalogue compiled for this study), typically
removing more of these events than other methods. A plot of the instrumentally recorded
earthquakes in the project region is provided in Figure 8. Note the figure shows the declustered
seismicity catalogue.
12.3 Analysis of Earthquake Record
The spatial distribution of seismic events recorded in and around the Skardu City and given in
Appendix-B is plotted on Figure-11.
The distribution of observed seismicity on the seismicity map clearly shows that the Skardu
Valley is located in a region of high seismicity. The concentration of earthquakes southwest of
the project area is related to seismically active Himalayan frontal zone along which Kangra
earthquake of 1905 and Kashmir-Hazara earthquake of 2005 occurred.
The concentration of seismicity in the west of the Skardu Valley is from highly active zone of
Raikot-Sassi fault zone of the Nanga Parbat-Haramosh Syntaxis (NPHS). The small
concentration of recent earthquakes (November 2002 to March 2003) is located in the Raikot
area on the western flank of the Nanga Parbat-Haramosh structure and possibly extending within
the massif. The main shocks include:
 1st November, 2002; magnitude (Mw) 5.5; and

 20th November, 2002; magnitude (Mw) 5.9.
32
About 89 aftershocks were also recorded in this period the alignment of which shows
predominantly north-south trend. Along MKT, a number of small to medium earthquakes are
located towards the northwest of the Skardu Valley showing recent activity of MKT. The
earthquake activity on northeast of the study area is mainly related to Karakoram fault.
The observed seismicity (Figure-11) shows that the Skardu Region is seismically active due to
tectonic processes associated with the interaction of the Eurasian and Indian tectonic plates.
Figure-11. Spatial Distribution of Seismicity in and around Skardu City
The seismic events in the Skardu Region mostly shows E-W trending folds and faults. The
deformation within this zone is primarily the result of thrusting and of deep crustal decollement
processes associated within the collision of the plates. The map indicates that most of the
seismic activity is aligned along known faults that are controlling the seismotectonic of Skardu
Region. However, in the seismic activity map, many of the located seismic events may not be
associated to the surface tectonic faults and may be attributed to features present at shallow
depths. Within some areas of the seismic activity map the observed seismicity is relatively low
and do not consist of higher magnitude events. This implies that the regional tectonic features in
the Skardu Region are seismically active at moderate to high level magnitudes, due to stresses
developed as a result of collision of the tectonic plates (Figures-11 & 12)
This map (Figures-11 & 12) displays the presence of seismic activity in east, north and south of
the Skardu Valley which could be associated with faults present in this region. Along the North-
East are the seismic events caused by the Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT). The cluster of
seismicity South-West off Skardu Valley is related to earthquake activity along the Indus Kohistan
33
Seismic Zone. This cluster of seismic events also includes the aftershocks of mega Mw 7.6
Kashmir Hazara earthquake of October 08, 2005. Along the South-East off Skardu Valley, the
seismic activity is low to moderate and related to the active faults present in the area (Figures11
& 12). It is therefore assumed that the Skardu Seismic Region (radial distance of 200 km around
Skardu) is seismically active and generating earthquakes of Mw ≥ 4.0.
34
Figure-12. Seismicity 200 km radius around Skardu City with respect to Faults.
13.0 SEISMOTECTONIC ANALYSIS
35
From the available tectonic and seismic data and neo tectonic studies carried out in the Skardu
Valley area, a preliminary understanding about the seismotectonic set up can be developed. A
seismotectonic map of the Skardu Valley region (200 km radial distance off Skardu), with active
faults is presented in Figure-12.
13.1 Identification and Description of Seismic Sources
The available seismic and tectonic data provides several evidences of the seismic activity along
the major faults i.e., Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) and Kohistan Fault passing south of the site, the
locations of which are shown on Figure-8.
Based on this understanding of the seismotectonic setting and faults of the area, the major
seismogenic features which may significantly influence the seismic hazard for Skardu City are:
 Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT),

 Indus – Tsangpo Suture (ITS), and
 Karakoram Strike-Slip Fault (KF)
14.0 SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS
Seismic Hazard Analysis involves the quantitative estimation of ground motion characteristics at
a particular site and conducted by probabilistic or/and deterministic methods. In recent years a
good deal of work has been carried out throughout the world to study the seismicity of various
areas to estimate the earthquake hazard potential for establishing design criteria for the
construction of high-rise structures and multi-story buildings etc.
For Seismic Hazard Analysis (SHA) of the Skardu City, the guidelines provided by the
International Commission on Large Dam (ICOLD) for selecting seismic parameters (Bulletin 148,
2016) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, ER 1110-2-1806 (2016), Earthquake Design and
Evaluation for Civil Works Projects has been followed. A brief description of the methodology of
the approaches to be used for the seismic hazard analysis in accordance with ICOLD guidelines
is given below.
14.1 Deterministic Procedure
In the deterministic procedure, critical seismogenic sources (active or potentially active faults)
that represent a threat to the area of study are identified and a maximum magnitude is assigned
to each of these faults.
The capability of the faults is ascertained through observation of historical and instrumental
seismic data and geological criteria such as rupture length – magnitude relationship or fault
movement – magnitude relationship.
36
The maximum seismic design parameter is then obtained by considering the most severe
combination of maximum magnitude and minimum distance to the project site, independently of
the return period.
The main tectonic features around the project site which could be controlling the maximum
earthquake hazard are as follows:
 Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT),

 Indus – Tsangpo Suture (ITS), and
 Karakoram Strike-Slip Fault (KF)
Empirical correlations have been developed between maximum potential of a fault and key fault
parameters like rupture length, fault area, fault displacement and slip rate. Out of these fault
parameters, only fault lengths are known with sufficient accuracy. For the faults around the site,
the half rupture length of the faults has been taken for determination of maximum potential
magnitude (in moment magnitude MW scale). Those segments were calculated using Wells &
Coppersmith (1994), Nowroozi (1987) and Slemmons et al. (1982) relationships between fault
rupture length and magnitude potential which are given in Table-1.
Table-1
Fault Maximum Magnitude Potential Selected
Tectonic Feature Rupture Nowroozi Wells & Slemmons (Mw)
Length (km) (1997) Coppersmit Et. al.
h (1982)
(1994)
Main Karakoram Thrust 400 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.8
Indus Tsangpo Suture 300 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.6

(ITS)
Karakoram Fault 400 7.7 7.6 7.7 7.7
As per Geological Maps, research papers on Skardu Geology and available bore hole logs of the
Four HPP’s, the average shear wave velocity in top 30 meters of the site profile (V s30) was
assigned to be 450 m/sec (Sc Soil Profile Type).
The horizontal Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) at the site caused by the earthquake of
maximum magnitude occurring at the closest distance to fault was then calculated by using the
following five latest attenuation relationships of PEERC developed for NGA West-2 Model (2014)
Project, from strong motion data of USA and worldwide. These relations were used so, because
37
due to absence of enough strong motion data for the south Asian region, no attenuation relation
for this region is available till date.
For all the seismic sources, thrust rupture mechanism and bedrock site conditions have been
assumed.
1. Abrahamson & Silva & Kamai

2. Boore & Stewart & Seyhan & Atkinson
3. Campbell & Bozorgnia
4. Chiou & Youngs
5. Idriss
The peak horizontal ground acceleration at the site caused by the earthquake of maximum
magnitude occurring at the closest distance to fault was then calculated by using the latest
attenuation relationships developed by various researchers from strong motion data from USA
and worldwide. These relations were used so, because due to absence of enough strong motion
data for the south Asian region, no attenuation relation for this region is available.
As shallow crustal earthquakes are more important for the assessment of seismic hazard to the
project, therefore equations applicable for shallow crustal earthquakes were employed. The
attenuation equations developed under the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) Project of Pacific
Earthquake Engineering Research Center; University of California at Berkeley are used to obtain
the median values of peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA) for all fault sources.
The NGA equations are developed using a large worldwide database of strong motion recording
of earthquakes of magnitude 4-8 and distances ranging from 0-200 km. The NGA equations are
preferable over the older equations for the evaluation of seismic hazard particularly in the near
field as these are based on a broad spectrum of data recorded in the near field. The same
attenuation equations were used for the PSHA.
For all the seismic sources, thrust rupture mechanism has been assumed. It is assumed that
dam foundation will mainly be placed on gravelly soil therefore the site condition was taken as
gravelly soil with average shear wave velocity for top 30 meters (V s30) of 500 m/sec. The depth to
basement rocks (Z25) is taken as 5 km. The peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA) values
obtained at dam site is given in Table-2.
The 50-percentile (median) values of the peak horizontal ground acceleration (PGA) obtained by
five NGA attenuation relationships are given in Table-2. As shallow crustal earthquakes are more
important for seismic hazard in the project region, the attenuation equations applicable for
shallow crustal earthquakes were employed.
When critical faults are ≤ 40 km away the vertical PGA (V) are taken 2/3 of horizontal, and while
for ≥ 40 km away the ½ of horizontal PGA (H) [US Federal Guidelines for Dam Safety].
38
Table-2
Maximum Closest PGA (H) PGA(V)

Magnitud Distance Median Median
Tectonic Feature e to Fault 5% Damping 5% Damping
(Mw) (km) g g
Main Karakoram Thrust 7.8 90 0.18 0.090
Indus Tsangpo Suture (ITS) 7.6 65 0.14 0.
Karakoram Fault 7.7 35 0.20 0.130
14.2 Probabilistic Procedure
14.2.1 PSHA Methodology

In probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), the seismic activity of seismic source (line
or area) is specified by a recurrence relationship, defining the cumulative number of events per
year versus the magnitude. Distribution of earthquake is assumed to be uniform within the
source zone and independent of time.
The principle of the analysis, first developed by Cornell (1968) and later refined by various
researchers, is to evaluate at the site of interest the probability of exceedance of a ground
motion parameter (e.g., acceleration) due to the occurrence of a strong event around the site.
This approach combines the probability of exceedance of the earthquake size (recurrence
relationship), and probability on the distance from the epicenter to the site.
Each seismic source zone is split into elementary zones at a certain distance from the site.
Integration is carried out within each zone by summing the effects of the various elementary
source zones taking into account the attenuation effect with distance. Total hazard is finally
obtained by adding the influence of various sources. The results are expressed in terms of a
ground motion parameter associated with return period (return period is the inverse of the
annual frequency of exceedance of a given level of ground motion).
The seismic hazard model used in the present analysis was developed based on findings of the
seismotectonic synthesis. The seismic hazard model relies upon the concept of seismotectonic
zones and does not include linear or discrete fault sources. Each seismic source zone is defined
as a zone with homogenous seismic and tectonic features, inferred from geological, tectonic and
seismic data. These zones are first defined, and then a maximum earthquake and an
earthquake recurrence equation are elaborated for each of these seismic source zones.
The seismic parameters attached to the various seismic source zones are: a recurrence
relationship relating the number of events for a specific period of time to the magnitude; the
39
maximum earthquake giving an upper bound of potential magnitude in the zone; and an
attenuation relationship representing the decrease of acceleration with distance.
The probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation requires a detailed analysis of distribution of
observed seismic data to the seismic sources, determination of b-value and activity rate of each
seismic source and assigning maximum magnitude potential to each seismic source.
14.2.2 Source Modeling – Area Sources
For the definition of seismic sources, either line (i.e., fault) or area sources can be used for
source modeling. Because of uncertainty in the epicenter’s location, it is not possible to relate
the recorded earthquakes to the faults and to develop recurrence relationship for each fault and
use them as exponential model. The Skardu Region was therefore divided into three seismic
area source zones based on their homogeneous tectonic and seismic characteristics, keeping in
view the geology, tectonics, seismicity and fault plane solutions of each area source zone.
These seismic area source zones in the Northern part of Pakistan are shown in Figure-13.
Figure-13. Zones in the Skardu Seismic Region (200 km radial distance around Skardu)
Each of these area sources was assigned a maximum magnitude based on recorded seismicity
and potential of the faults within the zone and a minimum magnitude based on threshold
magnitude observed in the magnitude-frequency curve for the zone. As the shallow earthquakes
are of more concern to seismic hazard, the minimum depth of the earthquakes is taken as 5 km
40
and maximum depth as 70 km for all area sources. The source zone parameters used in
probabilistic hazard analysis are given in Table-3.
Table - 3 Seismic Area Source Zones Parameters for Probabilistic Analysis.

No. of Minimum Activity
Zon Seismic Source Earthquakes Magnitud Rate b Maximum
e Zone name above Min. e /Year Valu Magnitude
No Magnitude Mw e Mw
1 Karakoram 445 3.9 7.492 1.138 7.8
2 Kohistan 180 4.4 3.030 1.258 7.6
3 Eastern 331 4.3 5.572 0.991 8.0

Himalayas
14.2.3 Earthquake Recurrence Model
A general equation that describes earthquake recurrence may be expressed as follows:
N (m) = f (m, t) (11)
Where N (m) is the number of earthquakes with magnitude equal to or greater than m,
and it is time period.
The simplest form of equation (1) that has been used in most engineering applications is
the well-known Richter’s law which states that the cumulated number of earthquakes
occurred in a given period of time can be approximated by the relationship:
Log N(m) = a–bm (12)
Equation (2) assumes spatial and temporal independence of all earthquakes, i.e., it has the
properties of a Poisson model. Coefficients ‘a’ and ‘b’ can be derived from seismic data related to
the source of interest. Coefficient ‘a’ is related to the total number of events occurred in the
source zone and depends on its area, while coefficient ‘b’ represents the coefficient of
proportionality between log N (m) and the magnitude. The composite catalogue of earthquakes
prepared for the Skardu Region (area of 200 km radial distance from Skardu City), provided the
necessary database for the computation of b-value for each seismic area source zone.
The composite earthquake list contains limited number of earthquakes prior to 1961 and only few
of these earthquakes have been assigned magnitude values. Due to installation of WWSSN, the
earthquake recording in this region improved and a better and complete recording of earthquake
data are available after 1961. A basic assumption of seismic hazard methodology is that
earthquake sources are independent. Thus, catalogues that are used to estimate future seismic
activity must be free of dependent events such as foreshocks and aftershocks. To the extent
possible such events were also eliminated manually, however, there are insufficient data to apply
41
rigorous procedures such as that of Gardner and Knopoff (1974) to eliminate foreshocks and
aftershocks from the composite catalogue.
The completeness analysis of the overall data for the region showed that earthquake data up to
magnitude 4.0 is complete after 1961.The converted moment magnitude for the period between
January 1962 and May 2022 (59.4 years) was therefore used in the PSHA after excluding the
aftershocks. A separate list of earthquakes occurring in each area source zone was prepared
through GIS software and magnitude-frequency curves were prepared for each seismic area
source. The b-value for each seismic area source zone was calculated using linear regression
through least square method. The minimum magnitude for each area source zone was selected
from the magnitude-frequency curve based on completeness checks suggested by Woeffner and
Weimer (2005). The b–values, minimum magnitude and the activity rates for the six seismic area
source zones used in the probabilistic analysis are given in Table-3.
14.2.4 Maximum Magnitude
To each seismic area source zone, a maximum magnitude potential was assigned based on the
maximum observed seismicity in the historical seismic record and enhancing by 0.5 magnitude
the maximum observed magnitude in the instrumental seismic record for that area seismic
source zone or determining the maximum magnitude of the longest active fault in the area using
Well & Coppersmith equation (1994). The maximum potential magnitude used for each seismic
area source zone is given in Table-3.
14.2.5 Attenuation Relationship
Attenuation equations have been developed between maximum potential of a fault and key fault
parameters like rupture length, fault area, fault displacement and slip rate. Out of these fault
parameters, only fault lengths are known with sufficient accuracy. Because of lack of sufficient
strong–motion data covering a larger range of magnitudes and distances, attenuation
relationships for the South Asian Region cannot be developed.
The present earthquake hazard study requires the availability of earthquake ground motion
models for peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration, for the frequency range of
engineering interest. Available models include near field excitation as well as the attenuation with
distance, and the scaling with magnitude here is essentially developed for estimating the effects
of an earthquake which is not yet been observed in the region considered.
A number of attenuation equations have been developed from strong motion data collected in
other parts of the world. As shallow earthquakes are of more concern for hazard analysis of the
Skardu City Seismic Microzonation, attenuation equations developed for such conditions were
considered for use in the hazard analysis.
For probabilistic hazard analysis, following latest available NGA equations developed under
Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Centre, USA, were used as these equations
are valid for tectonically active regions of shallow crustal faulting worldwide and also
recommended by Bommer et al. (2016).
1. Abrahamson and Silva (2014),
42
2. Boore & Atkinson (2014)
3. Campbell & Bozorgnia (2014)
15.0 PRINCIPLES OF SEISMIC MICROZONATION
A natural hazard is defined as the probability of a potentially damaging phenomenon occurring

within a specified period of time and within a given area (Varnes, 1984). In this context, seismic
hazards represent the probable occurrence of earthquakes and seismically induced processes,
which include ground motions, liquefaction and land sliding. Geotechnical hazards are described
as the influence of natural hazards on engineering objects. Earthquake hazard maps may include
one or more of the aforementioned seismic hazards (Levson et al., 2003).
Seismic microzonation is the generic name for subdividing a region into individual areas having
different potentials hazardous earthquake effects, defining their detailed seismic behaviour for
engineering design and land-use planning. The practice of earthquake engineering comprises the
identification and mitigation of seismic hazards. Seismic Microzonation has typically been
recognized as the most accepted tool in seismic hazard assessment and risk evaluation and it is
defined as the zonation with respect to ground motion characteristics taking into account source
and site conditions. Making enhancements on the conventional microzonation maps and regional
hazard maps, microzonation of a region generates detailed maps that predict the hazard at much
smaller scales. The role of geological and geotechnical data is becoming very important in the
seismic microzonation in particular the planning of city urban infrastructure, which can recognize,
control and prevent geological hazards (Dai et al., 1994, 2001). The basis of seismic
microzonation is to model the rupture mechanism at the source of an earthquake, evaluate the
propagation of waves through the earth to the top of bed rock, determine the effect of local soil
profile and thus develop a hazard map indicating the vulnerability of the area to potential seismic
hazard.
The earthquake damage basically depends on three groups of factors: earthquake source and
path characteristics, local geological and geotechnical site conditions, structural design and
construction features. Seismic microzonation should address the assessment of the first two
groups of factors. In general terms, seismic microzonation is the process of estimating the
response of soil layers for earthquake excitations and thus the variation of earthquake
characteristics is represented on the ground surface. Seismic microzonation is the initial phase of
earthquake risk mitigation and requires multidisciplinary approach with major contributions from
geology, seismology and geotechnical engineering.
Seismic microzonation includes delineation of the zones that are homogenous in seismological
and geological characteristics and a description of zone characteristics by associating dynamic
parameters (peak ground acceleration – PGA, peak ground velocity- PGV, or spectral
acceleration- SA) with the specified probability of occurrence. As such, seismic zonation is the
first step for all further assessments of seismic hazards (Marku and Herak, 1999). These
parameters are mapped at a national scale for a standard ground condition, which are usually
rock or stiff soil. Mapping at this scale is called microzonation (Finn et al., 2004). Building code
utilizes national seismic microzonation maps in specifying the minimum design requirements.
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There are two aspects of earthquake hazard safety: i) structural safety against potentially
destructive dynamic forces, and ii) safety of a site related to geotechnical phenomena, such as
amplification, landslides, and liquefaction. Dynamic effects have been considered in building
codes worldwide to ensure the safety of structures under earthquake loading. However, little
attention has been paid to the safety assessment of individual sites in the form of land use
regulation.
15.1 Framework for Seismic Microzonation
Earthquake casualties and losses are primarily the result of building and infrastructure failure
induced by earthquake effects. The two principal approaches to reducing these losses are to
avoid high hazard areas for the building and infrastructure sites and to ensure that buildings and
infrastructure are designed and constructed to resist expected earthquake loads. The first
approach relates to land use management and the second approach deals with the design and
construction of individual buildings (DRM, 2004a).
Both the seismic microzonation and the building codes must be considered in urban planning and
building design. Although the scientific and engineering basis for these tools is widely available,
application and use must be required and enforced by municipal authorities. The effectiveness of
seismic microzonation and land use management planning is dependent on the effectiveness of
implementation policy and enforcement of zone defined development controls. Microzonation is
an efficient tool to mitigate earthquake risk by hazard-related land use management. However,
microzonation does not replace the existing building and construction codes. Seismic
microzonation maps do not provide detailed hazard parameters at the level of the specific
building site, but they do provide guidance on required site-specific investigations.
15.2 Seismic Micro Zonation for Skardu City 2040
Skardu City is situated at an elevation of 2,230 metres above sea level, though the mountain
peaks surrounding Skardu reach elevations of 4,500–5,800 metres. Upstream from Skardu are
some of the largest glaciers in the world, including the Baltoro Glacier, Biafo Glacier and Chogo
Lungma Glacier. Skardu is located along the Kohistan-Ladakh terrane, formed as a magmatic
arch over a Tethyan subduction zone that was later accreted onto the Eurasian Plate. The region
has low seismic activity compared to surrounding regions, suggesting that Skardu is located in a
passive structural element of the Himalayan thrust.[5] The stone in the Skardu region is
Katzara schist, with a radiometric age of 37 to 105 million years. Numerous complex granitic
pegmatites and a few alpine-cleft metamorphic deposits are found in the Skardu Valley and its
tributaries. Skardu Valley contains the Main Karakorum Thrust separating the metasediments
(chlorite to amphibolite grade) on the Asian plate from the southern volcanoclastic rocks of the
Kohistan-Ladakh Island arc.
15.3 Migration of Population in Skardu City 2040
According to the Population Census Organization, 2000, the population of Skardu City during the
1998 census was 26023 with an average annual growth rate of 2.12. The total number of houses
were 3526 with a household size of 7.4. Therefore, during the year 2022 the population is
1213712 and by the year 2040 the population of Skardu city shall be around 2317087. The city is
surrounded with cluster of villages living in mountains.
44
Subsequent to the topographic contours, most of the villages expand from bottoms up to steep
slopes. Obliviously, these tough features make living conditions harsh and pitiable on the
inhabitants in all aspects of common life. The central part of the villages is usually congested and
densely populated, however many of the villages are also fairly spread out or consists of more
than one cluster urban area size varies from as small as 1000 households to >3000 households.
Following are some reasons due to which the population is shifting from rural areas to urban
areas of Skardu City. www.Ijeab.com
 The education facilities in the mountains area are poor. The literacy ratio in urban areas is
36.8% as compared to 12.6% in rural areas.
 The availability of health services in terms of hospitals, health clinics, dispensaries and
medicines are poor in the villages. Diseases like diarrhoea, cholera, chest-infections,
goitre, abdominal problems and seasonal infections (cold, cough etc.) are common
among the villagers. The people have difficulty in obtaining the necessary medicines.
Serious illnesses face people to go to Skardu City for treatment and most of them cannot
afford this.
 The availability of social amenities indicates that villages do not have access to electrical
connections. Moreover, the electrical offices persuade the consumers for limited use of
electricity only to avoid load shedding particularly in winter months.
 It has been estimated that about 20% of the population is literate. Out of which some of
the population as reported to have primary, 6% secondary education and 3% higher
secondary education. This percentage is only applicable to male population. The illiteracy
rate of 81% of the population is considerable higher than the national average. The low
literacy among females (4%) is partly due to lack of girl’s schools in the close vicinity.
 Water supply is available to most households through spring water. However, the quality
of the service is reportedly not satisfactory.
 Sanitation services in terms of sewerage system, wastewater treatment, drainage and

solid waste management are non-existent in the villages. Therefore, the villages area is
characterised by inadequate sanitation conditions. Almost all the households use close
space for excretion where the solid part is collected and used as farm yard manure after
composting. The liquid part is allowed to flow in deep dug wells.
 Climate change and forest decline are some physically verifiable factors and
phenomenon and not a simple scientific theory in the lives of rural communities of
Baltistan. Research revealed that forest cover has on decline (either highly decreased or
decreased) like vegetation cover which has also decreased, particularly near villages
more as compared to pastures. Similarly, temperature has increased in winter and spring
as compared to summer and autumn. Snowfall has decreased during spring more as
compared to winters. Contrast to snowfall, rainfall has increased in spring followed by
winter, autumn and summer. Glacier sizes are shrinking and monsoon floods have highly
increased flowed by melt water increase in channels. Due to change in other climatic
45
factors, crop sowing, fruiting and harvesting periods have prolonged and have a
backward shifting trend. It is evident that there is a significant relationship between the
population growth and the deforestation phenomenon across mountainous areas of
Karakoram, Himalaya and Hindukush (Eckholm, et.al. 1976). In other words, not only
there is a relationship between deforestation and population growth but number of floods
and soil erosion as well and environmental degradation as well. It is therefore, Theory of
Himalayan Environmental Degradation ‘continues to influence national environmental
policies in the region.
15.4 Seismic Microzonation of Skardu City 2040
After the study of Geological maps, Seismotectonic maps, Borehole Logs of various locations,
Research Papers/Reports, Previous Geophysical Resistivity Survey Reports, Population Growth
trend, Land Growth trend, Built-in trend and previous Master Plan reports, the Skardu City 2040
area has been classified into following three seismic units.
1. Skardu Khas seismic micro zone

2. Hussainabad seismic micro zone
3. Shigri Kalan micro zone
15.5 Skardu Khas Seismic Microzone
This area includes the present central city of Skardu (Lat. 35.29 N & Lon. 75.62 E) and towards
south up to Satpara Hydro Power Project (HPP). Mostly soil in the area varies from fine to
coarser material (Silt to clay and sand to gravel). Soil selected in this study is low plastic Lean
clay (CL) and Silty clay (CL-ML). Presence of clay minerals detected by XRD analysis shows that
soil is reactive. Along the deeper portions mostly mafic rocks (basalt) are observed here. Grain
size is fine and foliation is present in the rocks.
As there are no defined rules to follow the building codes, therefore, settlements pattern is mostly
unplanned, scattered, semi-scattered and congested depending upon the availability of land.
Various households formed clusters known as Mohalla’s. Household size varies area to area,
depending upon the prevailing economical, cultural and religious norms of that particular area.
46
Figure-14. Seismic Microzonation of Skardu City 2040 (Google Map)
15.6 Hussainabad Seismic Microzone
The area Hussainabad (Lat. 35.39 N & 75.55 E, Altitude 2777 meters), covers the left bank of
Indus River and for taking in account future settlements, also includes the right bank of Indus
River. The area is around 15 km east of present Skardu City. Keeping in view the increasing
nature of human settlements in the area, due to the opening of the Campus of Baltistan
University and increase in the construction of multi-story structures, it is recommended that a
comprehensive subsurface survey of the area should be done. Every high-rise Structure may be
constructed after “Site Specific Seismic Hazard Analysis”.
Along this area the site condition is gravelly soil with average shear wave velocity for top 30
meters (Vs30) of 450 m/sec. The depth to basement rocks (Z 25) is taken as 5 km. Where bedrock
is very deep, the soil susceptibility category of the uppermost 30 meters of soil profile that
generally has the greatest influence on amplification is considered. However, the construction
design and material also vary depending upon the prevailing climatic, economical and
environmental situations as well as availability of local material and absence of basic
infrastructure. The soil susceptibility categories are defined based on soil type, thickness and
stiffness, which are used as a basis for defining mapping units.
15.7 Shigri Kalan Seismic Microzone
The area (Lat. 35.27 N and Lon. 75.62 E), includes locations like Hotto-Gamba, Kachura and
Skardu International Airport. The Hotto-Gamba part of this area is situated on the bank of Indus
River. Many seasonal nullas and streams pass through this area due to which the soil of this
region is uneven, it consists of clay, silty clay, silt, sand and gravel. Along the nullah bed some
alluvial material is also deposited. The areas nearby river bank are mostly clays and those near
the mountains are mostly sand and gravel. Due to presence of clay, high water table (due to
river) and the extreme climate conditions soil of this area is found to be problematic, results in
47
development of cracks in buildings, damage of roads and other infrastructure. This part of the
seismic unit is not suitable for future settlement of people.
The other part of this seismic unit includes areas like Skardu International Airport and Cadet
College Skardu. In addition to silty clay silt and gravel, at some places soft bedrock is present in
samples of boreholes. At some locations olivine rich rock known as unite is observed. It is as
igneous plutonic rock of ultramafic composition. This side of the seismic unit is suitable for future
growth of population and constructions.
15.8 Results of PSHA
The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was carried out using EZ-FRISK (updated 2022)
software developed by Risk Engineering Inc. USA. All the parameters defined in Table-4 were
incorporated in the model. The most useful way of presenting the result, for the three seismic
micro zones of Skardu City 2040, is in terms of horizontal hazard curves and spectra. Figures 15
through 20, for different return periods, i.e., for 475, 975 and 2475 years, relating estimated
ground motion to annual exceedance probabilities which are the inverse of return periods in
years. These curves present the annual frequency of exceedance (inverse of return period) of the
peak horizontal ground acceleration expected in the project area.
Where bedrock is very deep, the soil susceptibility category of the uppermost 30 meters of soil
profile that generally has the greatest influence on amplification is considered. The soil
susceptibility categories are defined based on soil type, thickness and stiffness, which are used
as a basis for defining mapping units. The Geological/Geotechnical reports and Borehole Logs
from different locations of Skardu City indicates that Vs30 ranges from 200 to 750 m/s and
corresponding amplification ratios varies from 3.1 to 2.2.
As discussed in previous sections of this report and in accordance with the Table 4.1 contained
in the Building Code of Pakistan (BCP) Seismic Provision (2007), the results of horizontal PSHA
were computed in the form of Total Hazard Curves for four types of subsurface strata as follows:
Type Profile Vs30 m/sec

SB Dense Soil/Soft Rock 760
SC Stiff Soil/hard Soil 450
SD Soft Soil 200
However, when special structure such as hydropower project and any multi storey building is to
be constructed then borehole logs in the area are to be studied/analysed. For such types of
constructions site specific seismic hazard analysis are to be carried out and necessary
application of the amplification factors should be used as given in BCP Seismic Provisions (2007
& 2021).
Computed horizontal Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) in terms of g through the latest state of art
EZ-FRISK (updated 2022) software, along the three seismic micro zones of Skardu City 2040,
are presented in Table-4. The g value in case of Vs 30 = 760 m/sec (dense soil/soft rock) is 0.15g
at seismic micro zones of Skardu Khas and Shigri Kalan (Hotto/Gamba), while it is 0.25g at the
seismic micro zones of Hussainabad and Shigri Kalan (Airport/Surrounding areas). The
48
structures can be safely constructed after accessing the condition of material present at the
desired location and according to g value given in Table-2 below:
Table-4. Computed g Values for three seismic micro zones of Skardu City 2040
760 m/sec 450 m/sec 200 m/sec
Location Years g value Years g value Years g value
475 975 2475 475 975 2475 475 975 2475
Skardu Khas 0.1 0.16 0.21 0.15 0.1 0.25 0.17 0.21 0.26
2 9
Hussainabad 0.1 0.15 0.20 0.15 0.1 0.24 0.16 0.20 0.26
2 8
Shigri Kalan 0.1 0.16 0.21 0.15 0.1 0.25 0.17 0.21 0.26
Hotto & Gamba 2 9
Shigri Kalan 0.1 0.15 0.20 0.15 0.1 0.24 0.16 0.20 0.26
Airport & Surrounding Areas 2 8
Along the locations where Vs30 is in the range 200 m/sec or lower, is not suitable for further
constructions purposes. These places are along the nullas or river banks/streams and further
constructions here may be avoided.
Figure-15 Total Hazard Curve for Skardu Khas & Hotto/Gamba areas when Vs 30 = 760
m/sec
49
Figure-16 Uniform Hazard Spectra for Skardu Khas & Hotto/Gamba areas when Vs30 = 760
m/sec
m/sec
50
Figure-18 Uniform Hazard Spectra for Skardu Khas & Hotto/Gamba areas when Vs30 = 450
m/sec
m/sec
51
Figure-20 Uniform Hazard Spectra for Skardu Khas & Hotto/Gamba
Figure-21 Total Hazard Curve for Hussainabad & Shigri Kalan (Airport & Surrounding
areas) when Vs30 = 760 m/sec
52
Figure-22 Uniform Hazard Spectra for Hussainabad & Shigri Kalan (Airport & Surrounding
53
54
16.0 SOIL LIQUEFACTION AND MITIGATION FOR SKARDU CITY 2040
In the Skardu Region of Northern Pakistan, three mightiest mountain ranges viz: Himalaya,
Karakoram and Hindu Kush, that are prone to seismic related hazard meet. The seismic zone is
vulnerable to earthquakes both from near and far seismogenic sources owing to its unique
geological, geographical and seismotectonic setting. The area has witnessed numerous colossal
earthquakes throughout its prolific geological past causing severe damage to natural and built
environment with intensity levels ranges between VIII–IX. Recent data of instrumental seismicity
shows that very high peak ground accelerations (PGA), can be generated by relatively moderate
(Mw ≥ 6.0) earthquakes in this region, due its geological/geotechnical aspects of the subsurface
stratum. With unplanned and unscientific constructional patterns and tremendous increase in
population since last major earthquake combined with warning level of seismic hazard and high
liquefaction potential index (LPI) leads to the insecure future of the Skardu City 2040, unless
proper mitigation measures are applied.
Kashmir-Hazara earthquake of October 2005 (Mw 7.6), was the deadliest earthquake in the
human history killing >90 thousand people and crumbling of the major infrastructure in the region.
This earthquake brought Northern Pakistan region into the global limelight and related seismic
hazard imposed by such earthquakes in this area. With growing population and rapid
unscientific/unplanned infrastructure development over time the vulnerability has increased
manifold to future earthquakes, as the most of the paleo seismic data in Kashmir Himalaya
suggest the possibility of a major earthquake greater than the 2005 earthquake, due to locked
basal decollement and continuous stress accumulation.
55
16.1 Soil Liquefaction
Liquefaction is a phenomenon in which deformation of non-cohesive saturated soils happens in

untrained conditions affected by transient, monotonous or repetitive disturbances. In this
phenomenon, saturated soils thoroughly lose their strength and rigidity due to the heavily inflicted
stress. This stress can be owing to rapid changes in the stress status of soils. This issue is
frequently reported in saturated soils, limp soils (low density or not concentrated), and sandy
soils. The above issue is because limp soils tend to compress under loads while compressed
soils tend to increase their volume. If soil is saturated with water, as in soils of sea levels or
lower, then water would fill the space between solid grains (porous spaces). Now, if a pressure is
inflicted to soil, it is inflicted to the water of porous spaces as well, forcing water to exit soil
porous spaces and moving towards less pressured spaces. However, if the pressure is inflicted
fast enough and it is big enough or it is done with enough repetitions (as in earthquakes or
inflicted during hurricanes) so that the water would not be allowed leave the inter grain spaces
until the next cycle, a pressure will be created in the water that is extremely greater than the
stress which causes the soil grains to stick together.
A state of 'soil liquefaction' occurs when the effective stress of soil is reduced to essentially zero,
which corresponds to a complete loss of shear strength. This may be initiated by either
monotonic loading (e.g., single sudden occurrence of a change in stress – examples include an
increase in load on an embankment or sudden loss of toe support) or cyclic loading (e.g.,
repeated change in stress condition – examples include wave loading or earthquake shaking). In
both cases a soil in a saturated loose state, and one which may generate significant pore water
pressure on a change in load are the most likely to liquefy. This phenomenon has more
destructive power in areas close to water such as rivers, lakes and mullahs.
16.2 Soil Liquification and Peak ground acceleration (PGA)
PGA or design basis earthquake ground motion, signifies maximum ground acceleration
triggered during an earthquake shaking at any location. PGA values are used to determine the
suitable earthquake loading for different structures/buildings required to persist the maximum
considered earthquake (MCE) in that region. Higher PGA values indicate higher level of shaking
which in turn can cause higher degree of damage to the buildings.
The PGA values display that high PGA can be generated along the southern margin Skardu
Valley. Historically most of the damaging events have been located and also due to the close
proximity of active seismic sources e.g., MMT, MCT, MBT, IKSZ, and the two syntaxial bends of
Northern Pakistan. Some research analysis also suggests that more the gap between the major
earthquakes, higher degree of hazard is imposed by accumulated strain.
16.3 Liquefaction potential index (LPI)
Liquefaction features can be produced by 5 Mw earthquake (thresh hold energy) although they
are abundantly associated with ~ 5.5 to 6.0 Mw earthquakes, depending upon the lithology,
groundwater saturation, consolidation, depth and source to site distance generally within the
epicentral distance of 40 km.
56
LPI forecasts the possible liquefaction potential of soil layers during an earthquake which can
result in extensive damage of built environment. LPI is categorized into four classes based on
liquefaction potential of soil layers, i.e.
I. 0 < LPI < 2 (low potential),

II. 2 < LPI < 5 (moderate potential),
III. 5 < LPI < 15 (high potential),
IV. LPI > 15 (very high potential).
Soils with LPI = 0 don't liquefy while as for surface manifestation of liquefaction features LPI ≥ 5
is typically considered as a threshold value.
16.4 Traditional Architecture of structural units in Skardu

Skardu is the urban centre of Baltistan and is one of the oldest settlements in the Region. Usually
families live in joint families, which means that several generations are living under one roof. A
typical family therefore requires a substantial living area. In addition, they also require space to
keep domestic animals and to store grain and fodder (cattle of livestock) over the winter.
Mostly the houses in Skardu are built on two levels. The lower level is used as an animal pen and
store for grain and fodder. This is usually not more than 5 feet high and is usually built of
undressed stone masonry, which may or may not be plastered with mud and often reinforced
with a wooden frame to make it earthquake proof. Alternatively, it may be made of mud-bricks
too.
Figure-27. Traditional Two-level Dwelling in Skardu
57
The upper level is the living area and typically comprises of about 4-5 rooms, including a large
kitchen. The width of the rooms is invariably about 3.5 meters, but the length may vary from 3.5
to 6.75 meters. Usually there are an equal number of small and large rooms. One of the larger
rooms is used for entertaining guests and for holding religious gatherings, particularly in the
month of Muharram. Another large room is used as a kitchen. The kitchen has to be large
because the cooking is done on wood stove which takes up a lot of space. Moreover, since this is
the warmest room in the house, it may be used as the primary living space during winter days.
A covered veranda connects the various rooms and it may sometimes incorporate a little
courtyard that is open to the sky. The veranda may also be used for storing firewood and for
leaving snow or mud-covered shoes, when walking into the house.
16.5 An Example Traditional House in Skardu
The plan below shows a small house with just three rooms. Two of these are large and one is
small. One of the larger rooms accommodates the kitchen. The rooms are connected by a
central space that is open to the sky (Figure-27).
Since this is a single storey-house, the animal shelter and grain store are built adjacent to the
living rooms on the same level. One the inside, the finishes are simple. There is usually a
concrete floor, covered with rugs. The roof structure is often exposed, but may sometimes be
concealed by a fabric false ceiling. The tradition of sitting on the floor can be observed
everywhere in Baltistan.
58
Figure-28. Plan of a traditional house in Skardu with a Central Courtyard
Nowadays, the timber structure used for most dwelling units in Skardu is composed of simple
posts and beams made from the wood of popular trees. Popular trees grow very high, very
quickly and are therefore ideal for long-span beams in addition to being economical (Figure-28).
The house is built on a stone plinth that is typically 3 feet high. Alternatively, it may be built upon
the animal shelter that is usually 5 feet high. In this case, the timber posts are taller, running from
the base of the shelter to the roof of the living quarters. These posts are normally 5" in diameter
and are embedded in the mud-brick walls that are one foot thick. The mud-bricks are simple to
make and can be fabricated by the house-owners themselves, using a simple mould.
The dimensions of a traditional mud-brick are 6" x 6" x 12". If this brick is purchased in the
village, it costs 5 - 6 Rupees per piece, but in the urban centre it can cost more than twice as
much. The Living rooms are normally 8 feet high and covered with a timber roof composed of
popular rafters. The rafters span across the short side of the rooms, resting on 8" diameter
beams that laid on top of the mud-brick walls, extend about a foot outside on each end. The
rafters have to therefore be about 16' long in order to span across the 12' wide rooms. These
rafters are 5" in diameter like the posts. These rafters are placed at c/c distance of 18 inches.
They are then covered over with timber slats or with branches and reeds. This is followed by a
layer of grass and leaves and a final layer of mud to finish the roof.
The windows and doors are also made with the wood of the popular tree and are normally
painted. The mud walls are also plastered with mud and then coated with lime. The floors are
finished in rammed earth and covered with carpet. These houses provide a higher degree of
thermal comfort in summers and winters.
59
Figure-29 Traditional Interior Ceiling of Baltistan
16.6 Chief Materials
The people of this Baltistan build their houses with sun-dried mud-bricks, using timber from
popular trees for structural members like posts, beams and rafters. The mud-brick walls, which
area foot thick, keep the interiors warm in winter and cool in the summer and are an appropriate
response to the climatic context of the region.
Traditional building materials of Skardu are;

a. Mud
b. Stone
c. Timber
60
The saturation of Balti traditional houses is evident in recent shifts in dwelling traditions and
practices. As observed and documented in recent changes in the more urban and accessible
centres of Skardu, the identity and substance of Balti architecture is at a critical juncture. Here,
fast-track concrete buildings often define themselves as regionally distinct using little more than
“Balti-style” construction methods.
16.7 Recent Constructions in Skardu Valley
Earthquakes don't kill, poorly constructed buildings do. As the number of inhabitants in the
Skardu Valley and surroundings has grown to ~3.5 million, conventional structures have offered
path to dilapidated mixture of ineffectively assembled structures, the majority of which are fragile,
rigid and less resistant to seismic ground shaking. Although conventional construction methods
of Skardu Valley fare better and were immune to earthquakes but modern unscientific
construction techniques have replaced such earthquake resistant structures.
In hilly areas and river valleys they are built on terraces with acute slopes made of stone (plinth
and walls), timber framing with mud-straws (in-filled mortar), wood (windows, doors and trusses)
and corrugated galvanized iron sheeting (roofing material). While as in plainer areas extensive
use of concrete as mortar is prevalent. The plinth of the structures directly rests on grounds
without any pier foundation. The foundation is made up of stones with wooden layer or
occasionally a down plinth concrete (DPC) above stone foundation with wall space ratio ranges
from 35 to 67%. Absence of steel increases the stiffness and rigidity in these structures.
For earthquake resistant structures symmetry is the basic standard, because symmetrical
structures possess low torsional effects which in turn help in minor displacements along height
and nearly insignificant floor rotations during earthquakes. Most structures in Skardu City are
low-rise structures with mostly 2–3 storied structures. Occasionally ≥ 4 story structures which
mainly consist commercial and industrial structures. Strength and ductility factors of different
structures vary with number of stories in different parts of the areas as increase in number of
stories effects the resonant frequency of the structure.
16.8 Structural integrity of existing structures
The earthquake resistant construction pattern is an important factor in reducing the loss of life
and property during an earthquake. Although no loss of life and property can be expected during
severe tremors but the loss can be mitigated to some extent if appropriate measures are adopted
at proper time. One of the best techniques to ensure the safety and reduce loss is construction of
earthquake resistant structures in seismically vulnerable areas.
Although no great earthquake has rocked the Skardu Valley, excluding October 8, 2005 Mw=7.6
earthquake having epicenter outside the Skardu Valley, for last two centuries, beyond the
average life span of any person. Hence most of the structures in this region have been never
really put to a real earthquake test. Numerous distant source large earthquakes (>7Mw)
magnitude and frequent near source low magnitude earthquakes occur in Skardu City with
moderate damages to existing structures. With no recent near source large earthquake in this
region, ramshackle hodgepodge of unplanned, weak and unsafe structures has been mostly
constructed without knowledge of future severe seismicity in this region.
61
Structures both residential and commercial present in the Skardu City, would undoubtedly be
condemned instantly as life threatening in developed countries. Although traditional pattern of
construction was safer than the present form of weak, rigid and stiff built structures, which were
more flexible and ductile due to presence of wood runners at each floor level, binding the walls
together with the floors with no abrupt discontinuities or variations in stiffness in the diaphragms
acting as seismic resistant structure.The advancement of modernization and industrialization has
resulted in inevitable destruction of these old conventional structures replaced by modern unsafe
and unscientific structures which ultimately increases the level of hazard.
Recent housing constructions hardly follow the Building Code of Pakistan (BCP) 2007 and now
updated during 2021. Ignorance of abiding the BCP laws has led to construction of ramshackle
hodgepodge of poorly built structures most of which have little resistance to earthquake shaking.
Historical and paleo seismic earthquake data accounts a very high vulnerability to the socio-
economic and built environment and limelight's the severity of damage in near future if such
catastrophe returns to the area. Nearly half of population reside on seismically active fault
systems that can cause unprecedented damage because the lack of preparedness to deal with
such catastrophes. Furthermore, conversion of susceptible areas for construction purposes
without due consideration of the geotechnical and geological site conditions have doubled the
hazard level.
Rapid urbanization has exposed more population to seismic hazard. Densely populated areas
have densely constructed structures while sparse in hilly regions. Building density contribute
significantly in total loss during earthquakes. Dense low rise reinforced and masonry present in
most places increases the trap percentage during earthquakes which might result in more
damage. More emphasis has been laid on architectural design rather than structural integrity.
The vulnerability can be reduced by the implementation of improved building standards, which in
turn will decrease overall risk even though the population exposure to hazard increases. If
stringent building standards can be made compulsory for every single construction seismic risk
can be decreased significantly.
17.0 MICRO SEISMIC MONITORING SYSTEM (MSMS)
The Skardu Region (Figure-13) as a part of Northern Pakistan lies on the seismically active
Himalayan orogenic belt which was created by a slow collision between Eurasian and Indian
plates spanning from the past 30 to 40 million years. The seismicity of Skardu Region is also
characterized by a complex network of active crustal faults spread around the main plate
boundary. This composite seismotectonic environment of the region poses a high level of seismic
hazard to the Skardu Region and its neighbouring areas. In the past, the Skardu Region has
been hit by several destructive earthquakes with Intensities reaching XI and resulting in a huge
number of fatalities (Appendix A). On the other hand, a rapid growth in population and
unsustainable urbanization is also resulting in an increased seismic risk of the Skardu Region.
Kashmir-Hazara earthquake is a recent example where the death toll due to that earthquake
exceeded 80,000 people and millions were rendered homeless as a result of houses collapse.
The Building Code of Pakistan (BCP) 2007 & 2021 has placed the Skardu City in Seismic Danger
Zone III and in its close vicinity is Seismic Danger Zone IV. Urban population in the Skardu City is
increasing rapidly with no proper building construction and seismic safety monitoring.
62
In the areas of Skardu City and surroundings, damaging earthquakes occur infrequently.
However, MSMS instruments will continuously record weak ground motions from the more
frequent, smaller earthquakes. The pattern of ground motion amplitudes from these small
earthquakes can potentially provide useful information about the likely distribution of damaging
ground motions that would occur in strong earthquakes. Many earthquake predictions and
forecasts have been based on observations of statistically significant changes in the rates and
types of seismic activity over long, intermediate, or short time scales.
In Gilgit Baltistan areas of proposed Bunji and Diamer Basha Dam Projects, Pakistan WAPDA
have installed MSMS for safety monitoring of seismotectonic activities. The seismic stations are
transmitting seismic signals through satellite link to central recording station (CRS) working at
Tarbela Dam Projects (TDP). WAPDA seismic stations installed at Skardu and Chitral are also
sending its seismic signals to TDP. At the CRS the seismic data is processed and analysed with
the latest state of art ANTELOPE Software. M/S Kinemetrics Inc. USA has supplied and installed
all the MSMS network and ANTELOPE Software.
As part of the attempts to mitigate the seismic risk a Micro Seismic Monitoring System (MSMS)
may be installed in and around the Skardu City. Pakistan WAPDA is operating MSMS for its
safety monitoring of its Large Dams and Hydro Power Projects in many areas of Northern
Pakistan. WAPDA seismic station at Satpara Dam is good example. Such a proposal for
installation of Skardu MSMS is attached at Appendix C.
63
18.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
With profound degree of hazard imposed by future earthquakes in the Skardu City and lack of
proper disaster mitigation measures increases the level of hazard. Moreover, geological as well
as environmental conditions highly affect the implementation of mitigation measures at ground
level. For effectiveness of disaster preparedness, mitigation, recovery and response the need of
the hour is to implement the following measures on priority basis. These Conclusions and
Recommendations are provided on the basis of results evaluated from present analysis which
suggests that high PGAs can be generated even by small magnitude earthquakes which can
ultimately lead to high liquefaction chances.
1. Northern sections of Pakistan including Skardu Region are more sensitive to earthquake
activity than the other segments because they are surrounded by the micro plates of
Afghanistan, Iran and India. Main Central Thrust (MCT), Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT),
Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) are the major faults located
in Skardu Region. The area also includes two Syntaxial Bends, known as Nanga Parbat
Haramosh Massif (NPHM) and Kashmir Hazara, where the rocks strata are folded around
this syntax and are subject to a 900 “rotation” from one side to the other side.
2. The most recent strong earthquake that has occurred in the Skardu Region is the Mw 7.6
Kashmir-Hazara October 08, 2005 earthquake, resulting in 72,763 fatalities and 6,8697
injuries alone in Pakistan. Similar earthquakes are likely to occur in the future, and it is
thus important to evaluate the seismic performance of structures based on reliable ground
motion scenarios.
3. During the past, Skardu Region has been hit by several destructive earthquakes with
Intensities reaching XI.). Also, a rapid growth in population and unsustainable
urbanization is also resulting in an increased seismic risk of the Skardu City. Building
Code of Pakistan 2007 and 2021 has placed Skardu City in Seismic Danger Zone of 3.
4. Along the Skardu Valley, the seismic activity is mainly associated with the micro
earthquakes and macro earthquakes of Mw ≥ 5.0, and largely coincides with the surface
trace of the Himalayan Main Central Thrust (MCT).
5. As per Deterministic Hazard Analysis the Karakoram strike-slip fault is present about 35
km NE of the Skardu City. A large amount of seismicity activity having Mw ≥ 4.0 in the
City, have been located from this fault. Maximum magnitude assigned to the fault is Mw
7.7, while the computed PGA (H) = 0.2 g and PGA (V) = 0.13 g.
6. Due to the presence of three major mountain ranges geology of Skardu Valley is much
diverse consisting of Metamorphic and Igneous rocks. Most of the soil types are found in
the Valley. Mostly the Valley has Mesozoic and Palaeozoic -Precambrian soil types.
7. Based on the Geological Maps, Geotechnical Borehole logs of different locations and
study of research papers/reports, the Skardu City for Master Plan 2040 has been divided
into three seismic microzones with different site characterization (soft rock, hard soil, soft
soil). The seismic microzones are Skardu Khas, Hussainabad and Shigri Kalan.
64
8. Computed g values for Skardu City 2040 seismic microzones, through Probabilistic
Hazard Analysis are given in Table-4. The Total Hazard Curves and Uniform Hazard
Spectra for different Vs30 are given in Figures 15 through 26.
9. Large number of construction activity is under progress in the Skardu City. It should
strictly adhere to existing and state of art Building Code of Pakistan 2021. Constitution of
teams for review and enforcement of these codes for government, semi-government,
corporation and private residential buildings completed or under construction in urban
areas.
10. Capacity building of stakeholders, service providers and incident respondents with back
up mechanism under Skardu Development Authority (SDA). Firming up disaster
mitigation management plans for critical departments and to construct the multilayered
incident response teams backed up by emergency response centres for each department.
11. Preparation of Earthquake Drill Manual for Skardu City. Introduction of disaster
management as a subject school, college and university level and conduct mass
awareness programs. Mainstreaming the Disaster Risk Reduction in development
programs by training activities, coordinating mock exercises, training concerned officials
for capacity building for better preparedness and effective response measures.
12. Lack of ground strategies like construction of earthquake resistant structures, flood
management strategies, landslide and avalanche mitigation measures increase the higher
chances of damage by future calamities. The SDA needs immediate establishment of fully
equipped disaster authorities with well-trained disaster rehabilitation force at city as well
as district. The transportation of rescue teams as well as rescue to supply after the
disaster takes lot of time and energy due to rugged and treacherous terrains of the region.
13. More geological, geotechnical investigations should be carried out to document the active
near source seismogenic structure which would help in formulating safer design
decisions. Although natural calamities cannot be stopped but proper strategies and
mitigation measures would substantially decrease the level of hazard and damage.
14. For the seismic safety monitoring purposes, a Micro Seismic Monitoring System (MSMS)
may be installed in and around the Skardu City. Plan for MSMS is given as Appendix C.
65
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

2.0 METHODOLOGY FOR SEISMIC HAZARD MICROZONATION 2

3.0 REGIONAL TECTONIC FRAMEWORK 3

4.0 SEISMOTECTONIC AND GEOLOGIC SETTING OF NORTHERN PAKISTAN 7

5.0 MAJOR SEISMOTECTONIC FEATURES AROUND SKARDU VALLEY 13

6.0 GEOLOGY OF SKARDU VALLEY 16

7.0 SEISMOTECTONIC OF SKARDU VALLEY 18

8.0 NEOTECTONIC STUDIES AROUND SKARDU VALLEY 19

9.0 BUILDING CODE OF PAKISTAN 20

9.1 Soil Profile Type 22

9.2 Site Foundation Condition 22

11.0 INSTRUMENTAL EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUES 27

11.1 NESPAK Earthquake Catalogue 28

11.2 Waseem et al. (2018) Earthquake Catalogue 28

11.3 Pakistan WAPDA Micro Seismic Monitoring System Earthquake 28

11.4 Focal Depth 29

12.0 CATALOGUE COMPILATION 29

12.2 Declustering of Earthquake Catalogue 31

12.3 Analysis of Earthquake Record 31

13.0 SEISMOTECTONIC ANALYSIS 34

14.2 Probabilistic Procedure 37

14.2.5 Attenuation Relationship 40

15.1 Framework for Seismic Microzonation 42

15.2 Seismic Micro Zonation for Skardu City 2040 42

15.3 Migration of Population in Skardu City 2040 42

15.4 Seismic Microzonation of Skardu City 2040 44

15.5 Skardu Khas Seismic Microzone 44

15.7 Shigri Kalan Seismic Microzone 45

15.8 Results of PSHA 45

16.0 SOIL LIQUEFACTION AND MITIGATION FOR SKARDU CITY 2040 53

16.1 Soil Liquefaction 53

16.4 Traditional Architecture of structural units in Skardu 54

16.5 An Example Traditional House in Skardu 55

16.6 Chief Materials 57

16.7 Recent Constructions in Skardu Valley 58

16.8 Structural integrity of existing structures 58

16.9 Conclusions and Recommendations 59

17.0 MICRO SEISMIC MONITORING SYSTEM (MSMS) 59

18.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 61

Figure-1. Topographic location of Gamba/Hotto, Skardu & Hussainabad

Figure-2. Seismicity distribution of Pakistan

Figure-3. Generalized tectonic map of northern Pakistan, showing subdivisions of the

Figure-4. Tectonic map of Northern Pakistan displaying major faults

Figure-5. Generalized Tectonic Map of Northern Pakistan

Figure-7 Seismotectonic Model of Northern Pakistan

Figure-8 Geological map of Skardu District

Figure-9. Seismotectonic Map North of Skardu Valley

Figure-10. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) variation in Pakistan

Figure-11. Spatial Distribution of Seismicity in and around Skardu City

Figure-13. Zones in the Skardu Seismic Region

Figure-14. Seismic Microzonation of Skardu City 2040

Figure-21. Total Hazard Curve for Hussainabad & Shigri Kalan

Figure-22. Uniform Hazard Spectra for Hussainabad & Shigri Kalan

Figure-24. Uniform Hazard Spectra for Hussainabad & Shigri Kalan

Figure-26 Total Hazard Curve for Hussainabad & Shigri Kalan

Figure-27. Traditional Two-level Dwelling in Skardu

Figure-28. Plan of a traditional house in Skardu with a Central Courtyard

Figure-29. Traditional Interior Ceiling of Baltistan

Figure-1. Topographic location of Gamba/Hotto, Skardu & Hussainabad (Google Map).

 Seismic Hazard Risk Evaluation of Study Area

2.0 METHODOLOGY FOR SEISMIC HAZARD MICROZONATION

3.0 REGIONAL TECTONIC FRAMEWORK

Figure-2. Seismicity distribution of Pakistan (Dr. Sarfraz PhD Thesis 2016)

3.1 Seismotectonic of Skardu Region