Nat Hazards

DOI 10.1007/s11069-016-2635-z

ORIGINAL PAPER

Occurrence of emergencies and disaster analysis

according to precipitation amount

Katiusca M. Briones-Estébanez1 • Nelson F. F. Ebecken1

Received: 7 April 2016 / Accepted: 23 October 2016

 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Abstract An analysis of the occurrences of events related to precipitation, considering

extensive and intensive risk, i.e., emergencies and disasters, based on twenty-nine years of
data for five cities of Ecuador provided relevant information about the behavior over time
of floods, river overflows and landslides. The records of events were examined in the
immediate and in the short term, which corresponded to 5 and 30 days, respectively, using
the data mining methods k-means and association rules, to identify the patterns that govern
their behaviors with respect to the observed amount of precipitation. The results show an
increase in the frequency of similar events, with the occurrences being separated by shorter
periods in recent decades. The behavior of emergencies and disasters indicates that
emergencies are expected for periods of 5 days, with low quantities of precipitation and for
periods of 30 days with normal quantities of precipitation. Disasters are expected, for both
periods of 5 and 30 days, in the higher quantiles of precipitation. Interrelations between
floods, river overflows and landslides were identified in all cities, with at least one rela-
tionship between two of the hazards for each city. An apparent flood–river overflow–
landslide cycle could explain the mechanics of their occurrence. The information provided
by the results indicates the vulnerability of the cities over time, their low capacity to
support normal quantities of precipitation and their high exposure to hydro-meteorological
hazards. The products obtained could be used together with precipitation prediction to
anticipate possible effects and to formulate adequate risk management policies.

Keywords Floods
River overflows
Landslides
Data mining
Precipitation
Ecuador

vulnerability

& Katiusca M. Briones-Estébanez

katiusca.briones@gmail.com
1
Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Horácio Macedo Av., 2030,
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

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1 Introduction

Global emergency and disaster databases show that the occurrence, severity and conse-
quence of these events have exhibited worrying increasing trends since the 1940s decade
(EM-DAT 2016). Droughts, floods, windstorms, tropical cyclones, storm surges, extreme
temperatures, landslides, wildfires, health epidemics and insect infestation caused 1.94
million deaths and US$2.4 trillion of economic loss from 1970 to 2012 (WMO 2014).
Faced with this reality, international organizations have launched initiatives to formulate
and reformulate global documents to serve as guides to managing disaster risk. The United
Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR 2008), in charge of
developing policies and practices for disaster risk reduction, has released major global
documents on strategies and plans to reduce the negative impacts of disasters. The
International Framework of Action for the International Decade for Natural Disaster
Reduction of 1989, the Yokohama Strategy for a Safer World (1994), the Hyogo
Framework for Action 2005–2015 and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction
2015–2030, each the successor to the previous one, constitute continuously updated guides
to increase the resilience of nations and communities. In addition to many other recom-
mendations, these documents suggest the application of methodologies to assess disaster
risks, vulnerabilities and exposure to hazards as a way to understand all the processes and
elements involved in disaster risk management to establish adequate policies and practices
to improve the capacity of nations to address disasters.
An analysis of the emergencies and disasters of Latin American and Caribbean coun-
tries in the period of 1990–2013 based on the DesInventar database provides highly
important information. The impacts of the events associated with extensive risk (low or
moderate intensity, highly frequent and that affect dispersed populations) sum to 99% of
the reports, while events associated with intensive risk (high intensity, low frequency and
that affect large concentrations of people) sum 1%. As an example, in the period of
1993–2013 occurred 177 extensive risk events for every intensive risk event (UNISDR
2015). Intensive risk events draw global attention, receive international humanitarian help
and lead local governments to earmark emergency funds to aid victims, as opposed to
extensive risk events, which are not perceived as disasters (La Red 1993) but in sum cause
more victims and damage (UNISDR 2015). The latest UNISDR document The Sendai
Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 extends the scope of its application to
various types of disasters, including small-scale disasters, encouraging nations to reduce
their hazard exposure and vulnerability to a broader range of events.
Despite the general increase in emergencies and disasters, 2014 was identified as the
year with the third lowest number of reported events in the last decade due to the smaller
number of events generated by hydrological and climatological conditions, with the
numbers of deaths and victims and economic damage below the annual averages of the
years 2001–2013 (Guha-Sapir et al. 2015). This decrease in the number of deaths is
explained by the WMO as a result of the application of new policies and tools combined
with scientific advances in forecasting in high-risk countries (WMO 2005).
Following the guidelines provided, an analysis of the events, including those with
extensive and intensive risks, with respect to precipitation data using computational
knowledge extraction techniques was applied to five cities of Ecuador, a Latin American
country that is highly vulnerable to disasters, mainly to hydro-meteorological and geo-
logical natural hazards (SNGR 2012). The results can be useful for providing early
warnings of emergencies and disasters, acting as a tool to identify in advance types of

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events that might occur based on past information, and can increase the capacity of the
institutions involved in risk management, strengthening their technical capability.

2 Objective

The objective of this research is the identification and the analysis of the patterns in the
occurrence of extensive and intensive events, including floods, river overflows and land-
slides, related to the amount of precipitation in five cities of Ecuador.

3 Locality

The identification of the patterns of events was carried out using data for Ecuador, a
country located in northwestern South America. The economy of Ecuador depends mainly
on the export of primary products that includes petroleum, fishery and agricultural pro-
duction (BCE 2016a, b). Considering that climatic behavior could lead to events that affect
petroleum extraction, change in fishing practices and crop losses, it could be determined
that the economy of this country is sensitive to climate variations.
Ecuador has various climates throughout its territory of 256.370 km2, considering both
the continental and insular regions. The Andes mountains act as a longitudinal barrier from
north to south that divides continental Ecuador into three natural regions: the coast, the
mountains and the Amazon. The mountains, together with the meteorological and oceanic
equatorial systems, cause the existence of a wide variety of climates, soils, landscapes and
organisms (IGM 2013).
The dense river network of Ecuador, according to the estimate of the IGM (2013), has a
specific flow of 1150 mm/year distributed throughout its territory. This specific flow is
higher than the global average of 300 mm/year. The large amount of water, coupled with
the country’s poor infrastructure, causes severe floods during extreme or continuous
rainfall periods. Pourrut and Nouvelot (1995) stated that the lack of water, as well as its
excess, has a fundamental impact on the fragile balance of the Ecuadorian economy.
Earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, floods, landslides and droughts are the main
natural hazards in Ecuador. Ecuador is vulnerable to floods caused by seasonal precipi-
tation, extreme rain during El Niño periods, the overflowing of rivers, the limited capacity
of the drainage systems, the damming of rivers, the rupture or overflow of dams and marine
dynamics (SNGR/ECHO/UNISDR 2012). Severe flooding has occurred during El Niño
periods due to heavy rain (D’ercole and Trujillo 2003).
The Ecuadorian coast cyclically suffers major damage due to flooding (SNGR/ECHO/
UNISDR 2012). Four of the cities analyzed in this paper, Guayaquil, Esmeraldas, Baba-
hoyo and Chone, are located in this area. The analysis of D’ercole and Trujillo (2003) of
floods in Quito and Guayaquil, the two largest cities of Ecuador, indicates that in
Guayaquil, the floods are caused mainly by the overflowing of the Guayas River, located in
the urban area of the city, while Quito, located in the Andean region, has the poor
infrastructure of water collectors as the main cause of floods.
The vulnerability analysis of landslides in Ecuador by STGR (2009) indicates that the
main causes are the recurrence of old landslides and poor infrastructure that blocks natural
drainage, causing water infiltration. The provinces on the northern coast, the north and
south of the mountain region and the northwest of the Amazon are the most exposed to

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landslides. The analyzed cities of Esmeraldas and Chone are located in the provinces of
Esmeraldas and Manabı́, respectively, two of the provinces with more reports of landslides.
An analysis of the two main cities of Ecuador shows that Quito is exposed to landslides due
to the soil characteristics of the mountain region and the quantity of rain, whereas
Guayaquil is exposed due to the lack of sewage networks in the hills, where poor neigh-
borhoods are located.

4 Methodology and data

The methodology aims to identify and analyze patterns in the records of events associated
with extensive and intensive risks that occur at different quantities of rainfall. These
patterns were established by analogy to evaluate the climatic impacts on society, assuming
that without any social change, similar climatic behavior could have similar impacts in the
future (UNEP/NCAR/UNU/WMO/ISDR 2000).
The patterns were identified based on the application of the knowledge extraction
techniques k-means and association rules to the event data and precipitation amount. In this
way, patterns in the relationship of precipitation–event type–event level were identified.
Figure 1 shows the general scheme used.

4.1 Data analysis

Precipitation and event datasets were selected and pre-analyzed using basic statistical
analysis, as detailed in Sect. 5. From these databases, subsets of data were obtained
depending on the analysis of the density of the event records, see Sect. 5.2. The resulting

Data Analysis Application of knowledge Pattern recognition in the

extraction techniques relations of precipitation–
event type–event level

Identification of
Analysis of Application of k- years with similar
precipitation data means algorithm characteristics in the
relationship
precipitation–event

Analysis of event Application of Identification of

records association rules patterns in the
relationship
• Statistical analysis. precipitation–event
• Definition of periods for analysis.
• Definition of types of events for Identification of
determination of patterns.
patterns between
• Analysis of precipitation-event
correlation.
events
• Definition of quantiles of
precipitation and accumulation
of event records.

Fig. 1 Proposed methodology for the determination of patterns in the relationship of precipitation–events
(emergencies and disasters)

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event records were categorized as emergencies or disasters to facilitate the application of

knowledge extraction techniques, see Sect. 5.2.

4.1.1 Data sources

4.1.1.1 Precipitation database Daily precipitation data for the analyzed cities were pro-
vided by INOCAR (Oceanographic Institute of Ecuador) and INAMHI (Hydrographic and
Meteorological Institute of Ecuador), institutions dedicated to oceanographic and meteoro-
logical research in Ecuador. Subsets of the data were selected according to the selected period
for the event data. The pre-analysis of the precipitation data is explained in Sect. 5.1.

4.1.1.2 Event database From the available event databases, generally called disaster
databases, a database was selected that included records of extensive and intensive events
and information on the city in which the events occurred. In this manner, records of events
were obtained from the DesInventar database, a project of the OSSO Corporation.
DesInventar is an online system for the acquisition, consultation and visualization of data
on events of small, medium and large impacts, i.e., extensive and intensive disasters. The
sources are preexisting data, journals and institutional reports (DesInventar 2012). Data are
recorded for nine countries in Latin America, including Ecuador.
DesInventar is a database that includes as many events as possible, which could be
considered its strength. The weakness is that this information, obtained mainly from news
sources, could differ from what actually happened, e.g., due to limitations in communi-
cation, principally in the first years of records, underestimation or overestimation of the
disaster, the use of non-official or estimated data, and delays in the publication.
For analytical purposes, the definition of USAID (2008) was used to differentiate
emergencies from disasters. This differentiation is based on the parameters of prior
information about the event, the consequences and the ability of the community to absorb
the impact and return to its previous state. This classification consists of levels I–IV. Levels
I and II are considered emergencies, and levels III and IV disasters. Level I: a situation that
can be attended to with the local resources available for emergencies. Level II: a situation
that to be attended to require the mobilization of additional local resources, in addition to
those earmarked for emergencies, without exceeding capacity. Level III: a situation that
requires the support of other locations at the departmental or state levels. Level IV: a
situation that requires national support.
The classification of the event records into levels, i.e., emergencies and disasters,
allowed the incorporation of the variable intensity of the events, in addition to the type of
event, in the pattern identification. The intensity of the events defines the events with
respect to extensive or intensive risk. Information on the type and intensity of the disasters
enables obtaining complete results of the historical behavior of the events analyzed.

4.2 Application of knowledge extraction techniques

A joint analysis of the databases was made prior to the application of knowledge extraction
techniques. The maximum correlation calculated for the daily precipitation data and daily
events was considered low enough to assume the event as a consequence of the rain on the
corresponding day. The records were progressively accumulated in periods of 5, 10, 20, 30
and 90 days, obtaining better correlations, see Sect. 5.3. Cumulative records of 5 and
30 days were selected for the analyses of patterns, considered as the immediate and short
term, respectively.

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To facilitate the analysis and comprehension of the patterns, quantiles of the accumu-
lated rainfall and the corresponding event data were used. For 5-day periods was calculated
quintiles, and for 30-day periods, terciles. The objective is that the patterns identified could
be used together with the precipitation forecast.
New combined precipitation–event registers were created as three-dimensional records:
the quantile precipitation range, the types of events and the highest level of the events.
These new registers were submitted to the knowledge extraction techniques to find patterns
that could relate the presence or absence of events to the amount of precipitation, high-
lighting recurrent event behaviors, but when and in what intensity the events should occur
cannot be accurately known.
Three products containing different patterns were expected:
• Clusters of similar events considering the relationship precipitation–event: The
identification of clusters of events with similar behaviors related to the quantities of
precipitation.
• Patterns for the relationship of precipitation quantile–type of event–level of event: The
identification of which types and levels of events occur with which amounts of
precipitation.
• Patterns between types of events: The identification of the relationship in the occurrence
of the different types of events.
Using the software Polyanalyst,1 k-means and association rules methods were applied.
The k-means method was used to identify groups of events with similar characteristics.
This method is a classic clustering data mining technique that consists of finding k group
centers and calculating iteratively new centroids or means that minimize the total squared
distance from all instances to its respective group center. The objective is to obtain
k clusters that group records of similar characteristics (Witten et al. 2011; Han et al. 2012).
Association rules were used to identify patterns in precipitation–type of event–level of
event and patterns between types of events. Association rules analysis detects frequent
relationships or associations within the dataset based on an antecedent and a consequent.
The strength of the relations is measured using two parameters: support, the relative
frequency of the occurrence of the association in the dataset, and confidence, the proba-
bility of the occurrence of the consequence part of the rule when considering all records
that contain the antecedent part (Kotu and Deshpande 2015).
Table 1 shows the variables used in each method and the results. These results are the
searched patterns. The groups identified by the k-means method, and the patterns recog-
nized by the association rules constitute a base of knowledge of the behavior of emer-
gencies and disasters in the analyzed Ecuadorian cities.

5 Analysis of databases

5.1 Pre-analysis of precipitation data

The analysis of the precipitation series identified missing data, which were filled in based
on information from the meteorological stations of the cities in the same homogenous
precipitation zone, using the definition of Cedeño and Cornejo-Grunauer (2009). The

1
Data Mining and Text Mining package software from Megaputer Intelligence. Bloomington, Indiana-
USA.

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Table 1 Input variables, methods and outputs applied in the identification of patterns in the relationship of
precipitation–type of event–level of event
Input variables Method Output

Precipitation quantile k-means Groups of years with similar characteristics

Type of event
Level of event
Precipitation quantile Basket analysis Patterns in the relationship precipitation–type
Type of event of event–level of event
Level of event
Precipitation quantile Transactional basket analysis Patterns between events related to precipitation
Type of event amount

filling was performed by direct replacement, considering first the nearest station and then
the station with the highest correlation (Mair and Fares 2009; Lo Presti et al. 2010).
Stations with no other stations within the same homogenous area were not filled, but were
considered as missing data.
Outlier data were found in all analyzed cities, but because these data occurred in periods
of enhanced inter-annual climatic variability El Niño and La Niña, they were considered
correct. Outliers founded in the city of Babahoyo were processed as missing data because
the values did not fit into this reasoning.
The daily time series of precipitation showed no trends. Increases in precipitation were
observed in the El Niño periods of 1982–1983, 1986–1988, 1991–1992, 1997–1998 and
2007–2008, especially in the analyzed cities on the Ecuadorian coast, with intense pre-
cipitation in the El Niño periods of 1982–1983 and 1997–1998, which are considered by
scientists as extreme El Niño periods (McPhaden 2003, 2009). The precipitation data of
Quito did not exhibit any sign of change in the El Niño periods (Rossel et al. 1998).
Table 2 presents basic statistical values of precipitation for each station. The stations of
Quito, Esmeraldas and Babahoyo contain missing data. All stations have a minimum of
0 mm of precipitation, and the maximum value was recorded in Guayaquil. The Babahoyo
station has the highest mean and standard deviation.

5.2 Pre-analysis of the database of events DesInventar

Main events likely to turn into emergencies and disasters for Ecuador—floods, river
overflows and landslides—were selected from the database. These events occur due to
climatic variability, with intensified impacts during El Niño periods (CAF 2000), causing
high socio-economic impacts in Ecuador. At the time of selecting the data for Ecuador,
6261 records were obtained, covering the period of 1970–2010. The selected records were
organized by analyzing the items of disaster effects, type of event and cause and placing
them into the three categories of the study: floods, landslides and river overflows.
In the selected dataset, the cities containing the largest number of events were the
capital of Ecuador, Quito and the four coastal cities: Guayaquil, Esmeraldas, Babahoyo,
and Chone. These five cities were considered for the analysis. The annual behavior of
events shows a cyclical pattern that coincides with the variation of the ONI (Oceanic Niño
Index) of the CPC (Climate Prediction Center), an index that indicates the presence of El
Niño and La Niña events (CPC 2016). Figure 2a shows that the analyzed coastal cities have
a higher number of events in the years with El Niño, followed by the neutral phase and the

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Table 2 Basic statistical data of daily precipitation series

Missing data (%) Minimum (mm) Maximum (mm) Average (mm) SD (mm)

Quito 0.62 0.00 90.40 3.03 6.58

Guayaquil 0.00 0.00 174.00 2.96 11.10
Esmeraldas 1.15 0.00 167.20 2.43 8.82
Babahoyo 0.03 0.00 169.50 5.69 16.35
Chone 0.00 0.00 143.90 3.22 10.53

a Percentage of records of events by city b Categorization of events by city

100% 180
158
30% 33% 160
41% 39% 42%
140 124
10% 120
26% 98
50% 18% 13% 100
21%
80
57% 60
38% 43% 44% 44% 31 35 33 31
40 28 29
23 22 20 22
20 8 10
0%
Quito Guayaquil Esmeraldas Babahoyo Chone 0
(230 records) (212 records) (90 records) (77 records) (63 records) Quito Guaiaquil Esmeraldas Babahoyo Chone

El Niño La Niña Neutral Flood Landslide River overflow

c Percentagem of event level by city

3% 8% 4%
100%
12%
9% 15%
26% 34%
29%
42%
53%
50%

72% 66%
59%
41%
29%

0%
Quito Guayaquil Esmeraldas Babahoyo Chone

Level I Level II Level III Level IV

Fig. 2 Analysis of the selected records of the database of events DesInventar by city. a Numbers and
percentages of records of events in the El Niño, La Niña and neutral periods. b Categorization of floods,
landslides and river overflows. c Percentages of event level records. Emergencies (levels I and II) and
disasters (levels III and IV)

fewest in years with La Niña. Quito has a slightly different behavior, with the largest
percentage of events in the neutral period, 2.6% higher than in the El Niño periods.
The analysis by the type of event shows that in the main cities of Ecuador, Quito and
Guayaquil, floods are the event with the largest number of records. Quito has many
landslide records in relation to other cities, while Esmeraldas, Chone and Babahoyo have
more homogeneous distributions of the types of disasters, see Fig. 2b.
To make a complete identification of the patterns of disasters, it was necessary to
establish categories to identify the intensity of the events. Categorization was based on
levels I–IV, as explained in Sect. 4.1.1 of the methodology. The authors of this paper

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Table 3 Periods with the high-

City Number of records of events Period
est numbers of disasters by city.
Source: DesInventar
Quito 222 1980–2009
Guayaquil 208 1980–2009
Esmeraldas 81 1990–2009
Babahoyo 75 1980–2009
Chone 61 1990–2008

assigned to each record a specific level, analyzing the information of various fields of the
DesInventar subset. Figure 2c shows the percentage of records classified into each level for
each city. A higher number of events in levels I and II were identified, corresponding to
extensive risk, as explained in the introduction of this paper.
All cities had few events records in the 1970s, so it was necessary not to consider them
but instead to only use periods with sufficient information for analysis. The periods con-
sidered for analysis are shown in Table 3.

5.3 Analysis of precipitation–event correlation

Rainfall is one of the weather events that can lead to the hazards of flooding, river overflows
and landslides. The materialization of these hazards depends on additional factors related to
the territory in which a disaster occurs (Wilches-Chaux 2007). The analysis of the corre-
lation precipitation–disaster, shown in Fig. 3, indicates the direct relation between the
precipitation and the events that cause some impact to the analyzed cities.
The correlation of the daily precipitation with the daily events was not strong. The
reason may be that the DesInventar database records were obtained from media that could
have registered the disaster in the days following the event, and another reason could be a
time delay between the rain and the event.
Correlations of the accumulated precipitation and event data over 5, 10, 20 and 30 days
offer a progressive improvement in the relationship. Based on this analysis, it was con-
sidered to use the accumulated series of 5 and 30 days to determine patterns in the
occurrence of events for the immediate term and the short term, respectively.

5.4 Formatting of precipitation and event datasets for the analysis of patterns

The quantiles of the accumulated precipitation were calculated, determining ranges of

precipitation to facilitate the analysis and application of the knowledge extraction tech-
niques and permitted a better comprehension of the results.
For the 30-day precipitation series, terciles P33, P66 and P100 were calculated to
indicate normal, below-normal and above-normal precipitations. For the 5-day accumu-
lated series, quintiles P20, P40, P60, P80 and P100 were calculated to provide better
distributions of the rainfall in the immediate term. These values represent the limits of the
precipitation intervals that were used for determining patterns in the behavior of events.
The values of the terciles and quintiles are presented in Table 4.
For each period of 5 or 30 days, the occurrences of the events were tallied and the types
of events were analyzed, selecting as the level of the corresponding record the highest level
registered for the period. Records were organized containing the data of the last day of the
period, the observed accumulated precipitation amount, the types of events and the levels
of the events. Non-occurrence of events was identified as an absence of events.

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Precipitation-event correlation by city

0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
Daily 5 days 10 days 20 days 30 days 90 days

Quito Guayaquil Esmeraldas Babahoyo Chone

Fig. 3 Correlation between precipitation (daily and accumulated) and events in the cities of Quito,
Guayaquil, Esmeraldas, Babahoyo and Chone

Table 4 Quintile and tercile values for cumulative precipitation series over 5 and 30 days for Quito,
Guayaquil, Esmeraldas, Babahoyo and Chone
City Precipitation (mm)

Accumulated in 5 days Accumulated in 30 days

P20 P40 P60 P80 P100 P33 P66 P100

Quito 2.30 7.80 17.44 34.30 120.30 51.79 114.06 321.60

Guayaquil 1.40 8.64 30.48 63.38 333.50 9.52 130.62 805.10
Esmeraldas 0.90 3.30 8.00 23.20 243.30 12.63 70.06 557.20
Babahoyo 0.50 3.80 30.66 84.48 333.70 4.40 167.30 1109.90
Chone 0.60 2.40 10.30 36.72 263.90 7.00 74.03 571.30

6 Results

Each of the three expected products discussed in Sect. 4 of the methodology was obtained
for the cumulative precipitation and event data for 5- and 30-day periods.
Clusters of years with similar behavior in the occurrence of events were obtained using
the k-means algorithm. Two association rules techniques—Basket Analysis and Transac-
tional Basket Analysis—were applied to identify the patterns relating precipitation–event
type–event level and patterns in the relationship between events, respectively.

6.1 Identification of clusters of years with occurrences of similar events

in the relationship precipitation–event

Using the k-means algorithm, clusters of events with similar behaviors in terms of pre-
cipitation–occurrence of events were identified for each city. Better results were obtained
with the precipitation accumulated in 30 days.
Among the various clusters obtained, the cluster with the highest number of records and
the highest levels of events was selected for each city. Once the clusters were selected, the
years during which the events inside the cluster occurred were analyzed. These years were

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Fig. 4 Clusters of years with similar characteristics in the occurrence of events by city. Circles represent
the behavior of the year in terms of El Niño and La Niña. Black circles indicates the years with at least one
record within the cluster identified as similar. Open circles indicates the absence of the respective year in the
cluster. a Cluster for Quito. Number of records 31. Average events per year 2.49. Precipitation range
58.5–247.4 mm. Levels of events I, II, III. b Cluster for Guayaquil. Number of records 31. Average events
per year 3.26. Precipitation range 207.9–805.1 mm. Levels of events II, III, IV. c Cluster for Esmeraldas.
Number of records 41. Average events per year 1.36. Precipitation range 14.7–109.3 mm. Levels of events I,
II. d Cluster for Babahoyo. Number of records 20. Average events per year 1.86. Precipitation range
135.6–924.7 mm. Levels of events II, III. e Cluster for Chone. Number of records 25. Average records per
year 1.38. Precipitation range 49–306.9 mm. Levels of events I, II, III

identified as years with manifestations of similar events, considering the amount of pre-
cipitation and the types and levels of the events.
Figure 4 shows the clusters obtained. Each graphic includes information about the
behavior of the years in terms of El Niño, La Niña and normal conditions in the form of
circles. This information is included to help in the visualization and understanding of the

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clusters. Figure 4a through Fig. 4e present, for each city, in black circles the years with at
least one record within the cluster identified as similar. Open circles represent the absence
of the respective year in the cluster. For each cluster is detailed the number of records, the
precipitation range, the average number of events per year and the levels of the events.
For each city, it is possible to identify some behaviors in the years contained in the
respective cluster:

6.1.1 Quito

Figure 4a. The cluster for Quito has 31 similar records, an average of 2.5 events per year,
of levels I, II and III that occurred in the range of precipitation of 58.5–247.4 mm. In the
1980s and in the first part of the 1990s, a similar behavior of events is identified in each
year following an extraordinary or strong El Niño year. Since 1996, this pattern changes,
with events occurring only after several extraordinary, strong or weak El Niño or La Niña
years. The pattern changes again in the 2000s, with events occurring in every strong or
weak El Niño year and very strong La Niña year. A single extraordinary El Niño year,
1983, and every very strong La Niña years were identified in the cluster.

6.1.2 Guayaquil

Figure 4b. The identified cluster for Guayaquil has 31 similar records, an average of 3.3
events per year, of levels II, III and IV and a range of 207.9–805.1 mm of precipitation.
With a similar behavior to that in Quito, the cluster for Guayaquil identifies from 1980
until 1996 events with similar characteristics in the year following an extraordinary strong
El Niño year and after various weak El Niño years. For the years 1997–1999 are identified
events in extraordinary and strong El Niño years. For the 2000s are identified events in the
strong El Niño years and after various weak El Niño years. Three of the four extraordinary
El Niño years and three of the four very strong La Niña years were identified in the cluster.

6.1.3 Esmeraldas

Figure 4c. The cluster for Esmeraldas has 41 similar records, with an average of 1.4 events
per year, levels of events I and II and a precipitation range of 17.4–109.3 mm. With a
different pattern than the other analyzed cities, the cluster includes almost all the years
except 1994 and 2001, with weak El Niño and La Niña, respectively.

6.1.4 Babahoyo

Figure 4d. The cluster for this city includes 20 similar records, with an average of 1.9 events
per year, event levels II and III, and a range of 135.6–924.7 mm of precipitation. The cluster
identifies, in the 1980s, similar events after one extraordinary or strong El Niño year, in the
1990s, in almost all extraordinary, strong and weak El Niño years, and in the 2000s, in almost
all strong and weak El Niño years and in one very strong La Niña year. Two of the four
extraordinary El Niño years and two of the four very strong La Niña years are identified.

6.1.5 Chone

Figure 4e. The cluster for Chone has 25 similar records, an average of 1.4 events for year
with levels of I, II and III and a precipitation range of 49–306.9 mm. In the 1990s, except

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Nat Hazards

for 1995, 1998 and 1999, the cluster identifies similar events in all extraordinary, strong
and weak El Niño years and strong and weak La Niña years. In the 2000s, only the year
2001 is not included in the cluster. In the period of analysis, one of the two extraordinary
El Niño years and the two very strong La Niña years are identified.

6.2 Patterns in the relationship precipitation–type of event–level of event

Association rules based on the Basket Analysis technique were obtained in two steps: the
first step relating the type of events with quantiles of precipitation and the second step
relating the levels of the events with quantiles of precipitation. Finally, the resulting two
sets of rules were compiled to get information about the behavior of the type and level of
events that could occur in some amounts of precipitation.
For each city, the rules were selected according to the highest values obtained for the
support and confidence parameters, explained in Sect. 4.2. Table 5 shows the obtained
rules.

6.2.1 Patterns in precipitation accumulated in 5 days

Event patterns are identified from the second quintile in the city of Guayaquil and from the
third quintile in the other cities. In all cities, the second and third quintiles indicate the
occurrence of one or at most two emergency events. Beginning in the fourth quintile,
disasters (level III and IV) are identified, including two or three types of events in the cities
of Quito, Guayaquil, Babahoyo and Chone. In Esmeraldas, events up to level II are
identified. Patterns indicate the occurrence of emergencies in the second and third quintiles
and disasters in the fourth and fifth quintiles.
Considering all cities, the support of the rules indicates that the described relations are
identified in at least 0.14% and in maximum 2.17% of the records, and the confidence
value shows that the identified type or level of events is present in the respective quintile of
precipitation from 10 to 83% of the records.

6.2.2 Patterns in precipitation accumulated in 30 days

In Quito and Guayaquil, events of levels I and II are identified in the second tercile. In all
the analyzed cities, the three types of hazards appear in the third tercile. In Quito and
Esmeraldas, events up to level II are identified, in Babahoyo, events up to level III, and in
Guayaquil, events up to level IV. The patterns indicate the occurrence of disasters during
precipitation above normal and emergencies in the normal precipitation amounts.
The support value of the rules indicates that, considering all cities, the described
relations are identified in at least 1.12% and in maximum 13.13% of records, and the
confidence value indicates that the identified type or level of events is present in the
respective tercile of precipitation from 10 to 100% of records.

6.3 Patterns in the relationship between events

In this analysis, each hazard is considered as a separate transaction, so the idea is to find
some relations in their occurrences. The resulting associations between events could be
thought as the possibility of the materialization of a hazard since the materialization of
another.

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 Nat Hazards

Table 5 Patterns in the relationship of precipitation–type of event–level of event and patterns in the rela-
tionship between events
a
Quito Type of event Level of event
Precipitation
Flood River overflow Landslide I II III IV
(mm)
34.4 – 120.3 ▲ ● ●
(Accumulated in five days)

17.5 – 34.3 ▲ ▲ ▲ ● ● ●
Quintile

7.9 – 17.4 ▲
2.4 – 7.8
0.1 – 2.3
Support 0.14 – 2.17%. Confidence 11% – 60% .
Flood and landslide → River overflow. Support 33%. Confidence 67%.
(Accumulated in thirty days)

114.1 – 321.6 ▲ ▲ ▲ ● ●

51.8 – 114.0 ▲ ●
Tercile

0.2 – 51.7
Support 1.72 – 10.03%. Confidence 24% – 86%.

Flood → River overflow. Support 50%. Confidence 67%.

b
Guayaquil Type of event Level of event
Precipitation
Flood River overflow Landslide I II III IV
(mm)
63.4 – 333.50 ▲ ▲ ▲ ● ● ● ●
(Accumulated in five days)

30.5 – 63.3 ▲ ▲ ▲ ● ● ●
8.7 – 30.4 ▲ ●
Quintile

1.5 – 8.6 ▲ ●
0.1 – 1.4
Support 0.28 – 2%. Confidence 14% – 60%.
River overflow → Landslide. Support 50%. Confidence 100%.
Flood and river overflow → Flood and landslide. Support 50%. Confidence 100%.
(Accumulated in thirty days)

130.7 – 805.1 ▲ ▲ ▲ ● ● ● ●

9.6 – 130.6 ▲ ● ●
Tercile

0.1 – 9.5
Support 1.12 – 13.13%. Confidence 27% – 92%.

River overflow → Landslide. Support 77.78%. Confidence 100%.

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Nat Hazards

Table 5 continued
c
Esmeraldas Type of event Level of event
Precipitation
Flood River overflow Landslide I II III IV
(mm)
23.21-243.30 ▲ ▲ ▲ ● ●
(Accumulated in five days)

8.1 – 23.20 ▲
3.4 – 8.0 ▲ ▲
Quintile

1.0 – 3.3
0.1 – 0.9
Support 0.29% – 1.54%. Confidence 18% – 67%.
River overflow → Landslide. Support 50% . Confidence 75%.
Flood → River overflow and landslide. Support 67%. Confidence 80%.
(Accumulated in thirty days)

70.1 – 557.2 ▲ ▲ ▲ ● ●
12.7 – 70.0
Tercile

0.3 – 12.6
Support 5.37% – 7.32%. Confidence 20% – 91%.
Flood → River overflow. Support 50% . Confidence 100%.
River overflow → Landslide. Support 67% . Confidence 100%.

d
Babahoyo Type of event Level of event
Precipitation
Flood River overflow Landslide I II III IV
(mm)
84.5 – 333.7 ▲ ▲ ▲ ● ● ●
(Accumulated in five days)

30.7 – 84.4 ▲ ▲ ▲ ●
3.9 – 30.6 ▲ ●
Quintile

0.6 – 3.8
0.1 – 0.5
Support 0.14 – 0.88%. Confidence 18% – 83%.
Flood → River overflow and landslide. Support 33%. Confidence 50%.
River overflow → Landslide. Support 50%. Confidence 75%.

167.4-1109.9 ▲ ▲ ▲ ● ● ●
(Accumulated in thirty days)

4.5 – 167.3
0.1 – 4.4
Tercile

Support 1.68 – 5.04%. Confidence 75% – 100%.

River overflow → Landslide Support 50%. Confidence 100%.
Flood → River overflow. Support 50%. Confidence 100%.
Flood → Landslide. Support 50%. Confidence 100%.

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 Nat Hazards

Table 5 continued
e
Chone Type of event Level of event
Precipitation
Flood River overflow Landslide I II III IV
(mm)
36.8 – 263.9 ▲ ▲ ▲ ● ● ●
10.4 – 36.7 ▲ ▲ ● ●
(Accumulated in five days)

2.5 – 10.3 ▲
Quintile

0.7 – 2.4
0.1 – 0.6
Support 0.22 – 1.53%. Confidence 10 % – 81%.
Flood → River overflow. Support 50%. Confidence 75%.
Landslide → River overflow. Support 33%. Confidence 100% .
Flood → Landslide. Support 33% . Confidence 50%.
(Accumulated in thirty days)

74.1 – 571.3 ▲ ▲ ▲ ● ● ●

7.1 – 74.0
Tercile

0.1 – 7.0
Support 2.18 – 9.61%. Confidence 26% – 100%.

Flood → River overflow. Support 50%. Confidence 100%.

a Quito, b Guayaquil, c Esmeraldas, d Babahoyo, e Chone

6.3.1 Patterns in precipitation accumulated in 5 days

Association rules between events for the precipitation accumulated in 5 days found rela-
tions in the three hazards—floods, landslides and river overflows—in all analyzed cities.
For Quito, one relationship is identified in 33% of the records: if floods and landslides
occur, then river overflows occur, too. For Guayaquil, 50% of the records indicate that if
river overflowing occurs, then landslides occur, too, and if floods and river overflowing
occur, then floods and landslides occur too. For Esmeraldas, 50% of the records indicate
that if river overflows occurs, then landslides occur, and in 67%, if floods occur, then river
overflows and landslides occur, too. For Babahoyo, 67% of the records indicate that if river
overflowing occurs, then landslides occur, too. From the three associations identified for
Chone, the rule that if floods occur then river overflows also occurs is the most frequent,
found in 50% of the records.
The confidence parameter determines that for Quito 67% of the records of floods and
landslides are associated with river overflow, for Guayaquil 100% of the river overflow
records are associated with landslides, and 100% of the flood and river overflow records
are associated with floods and landslides, for Esmeraldas 75% of the landslide records are
associated with river overflow, and 80% of the river overflow and landslides records are
related with floods, for Babahoyo 50% of the river overflow and landslide records are
associated with flood; and 75% of the landslide records are associated with river overflows,
and for Chone 75% of the river overflow records are associated with floods, 100% or the
river overflow records are associated with landslide, and 50% of the landslides records are
associated with floods.

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Nat Hazards

It is possible to identify the two most frequent patterns in the analyzed cities: river
overflows with landslides, found in the cities of Guayaquil, Esmeraldas and Babahoyo; and
the relationship of floods with river overflows and landslides, in Esmeraldas and Babahoyo.

6.3.2 Patterns in precipitation accumulated in 30 days

The patterns determined between events for precipitation accumulated in 30 days indicate
two types of associations in almost all analyzed cities: one relating the occurrence of floods
with river overflows in 50% of the records in the cities of Quito, Esmeraldas, Babahoyo
and Chone and the other relating river overflows with landslides in 50% of the records in
the cities of Guayaquil and Babahoyo and in 67% of the records in Esmeraldas. Addi-
tionally, Babahoyo has a relationship between floods and landslides in 50% of the records.
The confidence parameter indicates that, in the first rule, river overflow occur in 67% of
the records of floods in Quito, and in 100% of the records of floods in Esmeraldas,
Babahoyo and Chone. In the second rule, landslides occur in 100% of the records of river
overflows in Guayaquil, Babahoyo and Esmeraldas. In the additional rule identified in
Babahoyo, landslides occur in 100% of the records of floods.
The associations found in Esmeraldas and Babahoyo describe all three types of hazards
analyzed. The associations for Quito and Chone identify floods and river overflows, while
those for Guayaquil identify river overflows and landslides.

7 Validation

The validation of the obtained results was performed using precipitation data from INO-
CAR and INAMHI and the DesInventar records of the years 2010, 2013, 2014 and 2015 for
the analyzed cities. In this paper, these records are referred to as validation records.
At the time that the data were obtained, the DesInventar database did not have records
for the years 2011 and 2012 for the analyzed cities and only one record for the year 2010
for each of the cities of Quito, Esmeraldas and Chone. It is almost certain that there was no
absence of events, but there may have been a loss of data.
Similarly to the records used for the analysis of the determination of patterns, Quito,
Guayaquil and Esmeraldas had notably more event records than Babahoyo or Chone.
Table 6 shows the periods and the total numbers of records obtained.
The validation records were organized by date and accumulated in periods of 5 and
30 days. For the cumulative data for 5 days, event records of five or fewer consecutive
days were accumulated, and for the cumulative data for 30 days, all events records in the

Table 6 Periods and numbers of event records used for validation

City Quito Guayaquil Esmeraldas Babahoyo Chone

Period 2010, 2013–2015 2010, 2013–2015 2010,

2013–2015 2013–2015 2013–2015
Total number of records 51 49 47 15 13
Number of records accumulated 34 19 19 7 10
in 5 days
Number of records accumulated 21 13 12 4 8
in 30 days

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 Nat Hazards

same month were accumulated; respective precipitation data were accumulated, too.
Table 6 shows the number of resultant accumulated records for 5- and 30-day periods.
For each accumulated validation record, the types and levels of the events were com-
pared with those of the events generated by the association rules, according to the corre-
sponding level of precipitation. Those validation records that included at least one event of
those identified in the corresponding association rule were considered as matched records.
Validation records with an event related to a quantity of precipitation that was not identified
by the association rules were tagged as undefined by the respective association rule.

7.1 Patterns in the relationship precipitation–type of event–level of event

The validation of the association rules for the relationship precipitation–type of event–level
of event for the records accumulated of 5 days is shown in Table 7. The highest percentage
of matched records obtained was 100%, in the city of Chone, and the lowest was 65%, in
the city of Quito. A maximum of 21% of records that did not match the association rules
was identified in Esmeraldas. Validation records undefined by the association rules were
identified in Quito.
Table 8 shows the results of the validation of the association rules in the relationship
precipitation–type of event–level of event for the records accumulated in 30 days. The
validation records for the city of Babahoyo matched 100% of the association rules. The
city of Quito had the lowest percentage of matched records, 52%, the highest percentage of
records that did not matched the association rules, 19%, and the highest number of vali-
dation records that were undefined.

7.2 Patterns in the relationship between events

The validation of the association rules between events identified three cities that each
matches one type of association. The city of Quito has six records that match the flood and
landslide relationship, and the cities of Babahoyo and Chone have two and one records,
respectively, that match the floods and river overflow association (Table 9).

8 Discussion

Patterns in the occurrence of emergencies and disasters were identified for five Ecuadorian
cites: Quito, located in the mountain region, and Guayaquil, Esmeraldas, Babahoyo and
Chone, located in the coastal region. The analysis was made using data from a period of

Table 7 Validation results of the association rules in the relationship precipitation–type of event–level of
event for event records accumulated in 5 days
City Quito Guayaquil Esmeraldas Babahoyo Chone

Number and percentage of records that 22 64.7% 19 95% 15 78.9% 6 85.7% 10 100%
matched association rules
Number and percentage of records that 5 14.7% 1 5% 4 21.1% 1 14.3% 0 0%
did not match association rules
Number of records with events 7 20.6% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
undefined by the association rules

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Nat Hazards

Table 8 Validation results for the association rules in the relationship precipitation–type of event–level of
event for records of events accumulated in 30 days
City Quito Guayaquil Esmeraldas Babahoyo Chone

Number and percentage of records that 11 52.4% 10 76.9% 11 91.7% 4 100% 6 75%
matched association rules
Number and percentage of records that 4 19% 1 7.7% 0 0% 0 0% 0 0%
did not match association rules
Number of records with events undefined 6 28.6% 2 15.4% 1 8.3% 0 0% 2 25%
by the association rules

Table 9 Validation results for the association rules in the relationship between events for accumulated
records in 5 and 30 days
City 5 days 30 days

Quito Babahoyo Chone

Number and type of relations 6 2 1

Flood ? landslide Flood ? river overflow Flood ? river overflow

twenty-nine years in Quito, Guayaquil and Babahoyo and of nineteen years in Esmeraldas
and Chone.
DesInventar, the selected database of events, has few records from the 1970s for each
city, and considering that one of the information sources of this database is newspapers,
this lack of information could be due to various reasons, such as an absence or delay in the
publication of the information in the newspapers of the time, the events occurring in
communities without communication or a true absence of events; due to this uncertainty, it
was decided not to include the 1970s in the analysis.
For the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, the event database has a good quantity of records, with
a cyclical increase that matches the strong rainy periods of El Niño. The identification of
the five cities with the largest numbers of events, one located in the Andean region and the
other four in the coastal region, agrees with D’ercole and Trujillo (2003), who determined
that in Ecuador, the cities seated in the Andes are highly susceptible to disasters, and the
coast is also exposed to various hazards, including floods and landslides.
The El Niño signal was identified in the precipitation data as causing an increase in the
values, especially in the coastal cities, and a low increase in the city of Quito. This
behavior is consistent with the limits of the direct influence of El Niño in Ecuador,
calculated by Rossel et al. (1998), identifying three zones: the coast with strong influence,
the Andean regions with moderate influence and the Amazon with no influence. Vuille
et al. (2000) identified the low impact of El Niño in the Andean region, and for El Niño
1997–1998 and Bendix (2000) examined the intensification of rains on the coast of
Ecuador.
The cyclical behavior of disasters in the coastal cities indicates the increase in events
during El Niño and a decrease in the La Niña periods. In the neutral periods, the events
decrease but do not disappear, a behavior identified by Wilches-Chaux (2007) as a
‘‘normal’’ occurrence of events under regular hydro-meteorological conditions in Ecuador.
The registers for Quito show a lower increase in events during the El Niño periods
compared to that in the coastal cities, which could be due to the moderate impact of El

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 Nat Hazards

Niño in the Andean region, as analyzed by Vuille et al. (2000), Bendix et al. (2002) and
Rossel et al. (1998).
According to the DesInventar records, floods are by a significant margin the major
hazard in the cities of Quito and Guayaquil. Landslides also have a considerable amount of
occurrences in Quito compared with in the other cities. Floods, landslides and river
overflows have a more homogeneous distribution in Esmeraldas, Babahoyo and Chone and
a lower quantity of records in the database. The research of D’ercole and Trujillo (2003)
concluded that the floods in Guayaquil are caused by heavy rains in addition to the location
of the city on the edge of the Guayas River, located in the second largest river basin of
Ecuador. In Quito, the topography that prevents the installation of adequate water col-
lectors as well as the infrastructure of the city being situated on unsuitable land are the
main reasons for the floods, while the landslides are caused by the characteristics of the
soil, the presence of a geological fault where the city is located, and the intensity of the
rainfalls.
The categorization of the records of events into levels I and II, considered emergencies,
and III and IV, considered disasters, shows a small quantity of events belonging to levels
III and IV, which occurred only in cases of rainfall extremes. This categorization of the
records of events defines the events corresponding to extensive and intensive risks.
A correlation analysis of precipitation versus events had better coefficients as the values
were progressively accumulated, with the best results obtained for the data accumulated
over 30 days. These results could indicate that the events occur mainly by the accumu-
lation of various episodes of rain, which could damage the infrastructure of the cities,
ultimately reaching the limits of the capacity to support water and causing emergencies or
disasters.
The low correlation coefficients could suggest the existence, in addition to rainfall, of
another factor involved in the occurrence of events in the analyzed cities. Wilches-Chaux
(2007) state that due to human activities, the hydro-meteorological hazards have a socio-
natural component and not just natural, and this reasoning could explain the low corre-
lation found, as well.
Clusters of similar events by city make evident three different behaviors over the
analyzed years. In the 1980s, in Quito, Guayaquil and Babahoyo (Esmeraldas and Chone
were not analyzed in this period), emergencies and disasters of similar characteristics
occurred after an extraordinary or strong El Niño. From 1990 to 1996, in Quito and
Guayaquil, in addition to events after a strong El Niño year, similar events began to
manifest after various El Niño weak years, while in Esmeraldas, Babahoyo and Chone,
events appeared in almost every strong or weak El Niño year. From 1997 to 2009, in all
cities, similar events occurred in every El Niño, whether extraordinary, strong or weak, and
in strong and weak La Niña years.
There is a clear progressive increment in the frequency of similar events over time.
30 years before 2009, emergencies and disasters took more time to develop and occurred
only after an extraordinary or strong El Niño year (Quito, Guayaquil and Babahoyo cities),
possibly in response to the weakening of the infrastructure of the cities after needing to
support heavy rains. 20 years before 2009, the events appeared in the same year as a strong
or weak El Niño (Esmeraldas, Babahoyo, and Chone) or at least after some weak El Niño
years (Guayaquil and Quito), showing the lower resistance of the cities to medium-impact
events. From 1997 until 2009, the cities appeared to have still less resistance to similar
events, as they occurred in all El Niño episodes.
The patterns of emergencies identified from the second quintile and the second tercile
for the precipitation data accumulated in 5- and 30-day periods, respectively, indicate the

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Nat Hazards

occurrence of events following low and normal levels of precipitation for the analyzed
cities, once again showing the behavior identified by WILCHES-CHAUX (2007) and
discussed in the previous few paragraphs. The levels of precipitation capable of producing
disasters begin in the fourth quintile and in the third tercile in the precipitation data
accumulated in 5- and 30-day periods, respectively.
Floods, landslides and river overflows show a very close relationship in the short time
for precipitation data accumulated in 5 days, in all analyzed cities. For the precipitation
accumulated in 30 days, this relationship between the three hazards is found in Esmeraldas
and Babahoyo, while a relationship between floods and river overflows is identified in
Quito and Chone and between river overflows and landslides in Guayaquil. The rela-
tionship of floods with river overflows could be explained by considering that the thirty-
one hydrographic systems present in Ecuadorian territory, divided into two parts, the slopes
of the Pacific and the Atlantic, occupy 48.1 and 51.4% of the total territory, respectively
(Villacrés and Gallegos 2010). This would indicate that during the extreme precipitation
events caused by El Niño or by a strong rainy season, flooding would occur as an event
caused by local rainfall, and hence that quantity of precipitation is able to produce river
overflow in addition to the effects of possible distant rains that would increase the flow of
the basin. The relationship of river overflows with landslides could be explained by con-
sidering that the excess quantity of precipitation received in the territory that is capable of
producing river overflows is also able to produce landslides.

9 Conclusions

The occurrence of events related to extensive and intensive risks, differentiated as emer-
gencies and disasters, according to the precipitation levels was analyzed for five cities of
Ecuador using data series of twenty-nine years. The three products obtained for each city
show the behavior over time of similar events, the types and levels of events related to
specific quantities of precipitation and the relations in the occurrence of events.
The identification of similar events, using cluster techniques, and the analysis of their
behavior over time, exposes the increase in the vulnerability of the five analyzed cities of
Ecuador in the period of 1980–2009. The observed growth in the intensity and frequency of
emergencies and disasters of similar characteristics seems to be related to the decreasing
capacity of the infrastructure of the cities to support similar events, and not necessarily to
any important change in the hydro-meteorological behavior.
In the second type of patterns analyzed, for periods of 5 days, emergencies occur in low
quantities of precipitation, from the second quintile, and disasters from the fourth quintile.
For periods of 30 days, emergencies are usually from average quantities of precipitation, in
the second tercile, and disasters from the third tercile. This means that emergencies are
expected, for immediate periods, following low quantities of precipitation, and for short
periods, following normal quantities of precipitation, while disasters are expected, for both
immediate and short periods, in the higher quantiles of precipitation. For each city, the
identified quantiles could be considered as the quantities of precipitation at which point
floods, river overflows and landslides are generated.
The third pattern analyzed, related to the associations between events, floods, river
overflows and landslides can manifest in all cities for periods of 5 days. For the accu-
mulated precipitation in 30 days, in Esmeraldas and Babahoyo, there is evidenced the same
behavior as for the accumulated precipitation in 5 days, while in the other cities, two

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predominant patterns may occur: floods and river overflows in Quito and Chone and river
overflows and landslides in Guayaquil. It is interesting to observe the patterns of 5 and
30 days that relate all three hazards. An analysis of this relationship could suggest a
general pattern of a flood–river overflow–landslide cycle that could explain the mechanics
of the occurrences of these hazards. The manifestation of all three hazards in the periods of
5 days and of at least two of the three hazards in the periods of 30 days indicates the high
exposure of the analyzed cities to hydro-meteorological hazards.
The knowledge obtained of the behavior of emergencies and disasters, related to the
increase in their frequencies, the quantities of precipitation at which they could occur, and
the apparent flood–river overflow–landslide cycle, could be used together with precipita-
tion prediction to anticipate the possible effects and to formulate adequate risk manage-
ment policies.
The three obtained products show the increase in the vulnerability over time, the low
capacity to support normal quantities of precipitation and the high exposure of the analyzed
Ecuadorian cities to hydro-meteorological hazards. In this scenario, and considering that
more that 80% of the events are associated with extensive risk, it is possible that most of
the financial resources available to address emergencies are being allocated to help victims
only once an event has occurred, generating high expenses for the public administration.
The problem of reducing the impacts of emergencies and disasters on Ecuadorian cities
should be addressed by orienting efforts toward the reduction of their vulnerability.

Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge the support provided by the National Council for Scientific
and Technological Development (CNPq), the Rio de Janeiro Research Foundation (FAPERJ), the Coordi-
nation for the Improvement of Higher Level Education (CAPES) and the institutions that provided pre-
cipitation data: the Oceanographic Institute of the Ecuadorian Navy (INOCAR) and the Meteorological and
Hydrographic Institute of Ecuador (INAMHI).

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflicts of interest The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

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