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International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and

Science (IJAERS)
Peer-Reviewed Journal
ISSN: 2349-6495(P) | 2456-1908(O)
Vol-8, Issue-5; May, 2021
Journal Home Page Available: https://ijaers.com/
Article DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.22161/ijaers.85.49

Flood Disaster Risk Assessment Based on Fuzzy


Information Optimization Method in Limbe Town,
Cameroon
Tchoudjin Tchagna Abdou Franklin1, Xue Ye2

1
College of Economics And Management, Taiyuan University of Technology, china.
2Associate Professor, College of Economics And Management, Taiyuan University of Technology, china.

Received: 09 Mar 2021; Abstract— Cameroon like many other countries is a victim of the negative
Received in revised form: externalities of flood disaster. The alarming record register by the report
of the international Emergency disaster database discloses the undesirable
19 Apr 2021; consequences of natural disaster on the economy of the country. Flood risk
Accepted: 12 May 2021; has escalated in Limbe Town as a result of the rising, industrial
Available online: 31 May 2021 development, and urbanization. Although there has been a substantial rise
in flood risk assessment studies in Limbe, there still exist problem as to
©2021 The Author(s). Published by AI what concern flood risk assessment in the city of Limbe. Due to these
Publication. This is an open access article issues, we gathered and analyzed flood damage data from the Limbe urban
under the CC BY license council disaster database from 1990 to 2018 to determine the flood risk in
(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). different Limbe neighborhoods. To evaluate disaster data, the study
Keywords— Flood risk;Flood damage; Fuzzy proposes a new method called fuzzy information optimization. Our results
information optimization; Cameroon. demonstrate that Down Beach, Church Street, and Mile two localities
located at the south of Limbe are the most vulnerable areas, with the
highest risk of flood, followed by New town, Clerk’s quarter, Njengelle
Quarters, and Gardenswhile limbe camp, Bota, and mile one have the
lowest flood risk. The fuzzy information optimization approach makes risk
information available to decision-makers and planners, allowing them to
identify areas as high-risk flood, moderate-risk flood, or low-risk flood,
and implement flood risk management at the national and local levels. The
first tool used to assess flood disaster risk in Limbe was fuzzy information
optimization, which can also be used to assess flood disaster risk in other
countries and regions.

I. INTRODUCTION society, causing destruction, chaos, and casualties, and has


The earth'ssurface is referred to as a planet of life due to its the potential to place the affected zone in a dire situation,
infinite floraand fauna,the latter is also seen as a fertile forcing her to rely on external assistance to work properly.
environment of natural calamity, broadly know as natural Also, from the aforementioned mentioned forms of natural
disaster and natural hazard. According to (Petrucci, 2012) disaster, (Chen, Zhou, Zhang, Du, & Zhou, 2015) consider
There is a difference between a natural hazard and a flooding as the most dangerous due to its capacity of
natural disaster. Meanwhile the former can be due to a causing great loss in terms of human life and properties
geographical, atmospheric, and hydrological occasion, leading to a drastic effect on the economy. following the
which can take the form of a tsunami, landside, windstorm, finding of the author, According to the International
earthquake, flood, or drought, which have the possibility Emergency Disaster Database, there were nearly 12547
of causing injuries or damages.The latter is the occurrence natural disasters worldwide between 1900 and 2017,
of a catastrophic incident that has a detrimental effect on resulting in 22,989,400 deaths. couple with an economic

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Franklin et al. International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science, 8(5)-2021

loss estimated at 290.28 billons Dollar. Likewise, among combination of two factors: danger and vulnerability.The
these disasters, flood disasters rank top, leading to land and its uses are determined by flood hazards
numerous deaths and loss of properties in the society, as an expressed as vulnerability. As a result, in less populated
illustration, in 2001, due to heavy rainfall. The City of urban areas, the effects of this phenomenon can cause less
Limbe in Cameroon led to a combination of flood and damage.In urban areas, flood risks are evaluated more than
landslide causing more than 32 landslides scar, several in rural areas. As in urban areas, flood hazards lead to the
tensional cracks, 154 houses were destroyed rendering destruction of buildings, equipment, roads, houses, and
nearly 233 people homeless, 93 people dead and About track. In Cameroon, the flood hazard record dated in 1980,
197 people registered related to post-illness and wound at and since then the country has witnessed a drastic series of
the Limbe District Hospital alone (Ndille & Belle, 2014). flood hazards(Tchindjang, Amougou, Abossolo, Bessoh
LikewiseFlooding is caused by groundwater levels, hill Bell, & Africa, 2012).
slide runoff from sudden storms, and river flooding. (Saral, Limbe Town is located on Cameroon's coast, in the fako
Özcan, & Musaoglu, 2010). Extreme rainfall events division, specifically in the country's southwest region.
combined with rising sea levels, as a result of climate She has an estimated population of 120,000 people within
change, are likely to increase the frequency and intensity a total surface area of 545km2. The city's previous
of flood disaster damage. Furthermore, global flood characteristics explain why it has one of Cameroon's
exposure is expected to triple by 2050, owing to rising highest population densities of 220 people per square
population and economic assets in flood-prone zones, kilometer.This important number of people can be justified
which are typically seen as economically desirable areas mainly by socio-economic reasons such as the presence of
due to their developed nature.(Jongman, Ward, & Aerts, the CDC plantation which offers jobs to the population and
2012). Regardless of the huge investment in the riverine the presence of beaches couple with a botanic garden in
and coastal areas, faced with flood disasters, this seems Limbe. Likewise, the city of Limbe renders her a fruitful
very inadequate(Bubeck, Botzen, Kreibich, Aerts, & zone of flood disaster risk. The city is dominated by a low-
Sciences, 2012). no matter the spatial policies planning set lying coastal plain that rises to a chain of horseshoe-
to mitigate flood risk, this situation is also worsened by the shaped hills with varying degrees of steepness toward the
settlement of people near flood-prone areas like low-lying northeast and east, the highest point reaching 362 meters
areas and coastal areas(Aerts, Barnard, et al., 2018).Flood above sea level (Njabe and Fobang 2006). In addition to
risk assessment is the calculation of the overall adverse this, Limbe is 10 miles away from Debundscha,where the
effects of flooding for a specific region, according to latter is consideredto be the second the wettest place after
(Tingsanchai and Karim, 2015). It is affected by a variety Cherrapunji in India. This explains why the city
of factors, including the depth of flooding, the length of experiences constant heavy torrential rainfall in the rainy
flooding, the velocity of flood waves, and the rate at which season which runs from the month of October, and it
water levels rise. Many African countries are prone to equally witnesses the highest average monthly
natural hazards, Cameroon as well is not an exception to precipitation in the month of June, July, and August in
this, worsened by the vulnerability of its rising population, Cameroon of about 700mm (Ndille & Belle, 2014).
resulting inthe regular disaster which hasa severe Couple with this, the city is also blessed with small
incidence on the economic aspect of the country. yet, streams thatflow into larger drainage beds, and the latter
Cameroon face great constraint in the implementation of flows into main rivers and eventually ends their course
the Kyoto 2005-2015 framework and that of the current into the Atlantic Ocean. During these heavy rainfalls, it is
Sendai framework recommendation of 2015-2030, which important to underline that these rivers overflow their
has as aims to mutilate natural and manmade banks due to the severity of the precipitation in the rainy
disaster(Bang, Miles, & Gordon, 2019). season and causes flooding. This situation is also favor
As mentioned by(Saleth & Dinar, 2004), we can mainly due to the absence of proper conceived drainage
underline that countries that are bounder by water bodies channels throughout the city. This exposes the Settlement
are fertile lands for flood disaster risk, and Cameroon is thatis located along the coast of Limbe.
not an exception. Flood disaster risk is determined by a

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Fig.1 Geographical location of Limbe

II. LITERATURE REVIEW aimed at disclosing the role of human behavior of flood in
Following the increasing occurrence of flood disasters their environment and how the latter can also be used in
worldwide, the literature has outlined a panoply of assessing flood. One of the most difficult issues for
methods aimed at assessing the later flood. According to researchers in quantitative risk assessment is determining
the literature and thanks to the work of(Ali, Bajracharya, how to resolve the position of individual expectations of
Koirala, & Biotechnology, 2016) flood disaster risk can be risk-reducing activity and how these factors affect agent
assessed following either a hydrological, meteorological, decisions to take flood-prevention steps (Kleindorfer,
or socioeconomic perspective. Base on the GIS and the Kunreuther et al. 1993).Also, to reinforce the accuracy of
risk assessment theory (Wu et al., 2015) developed a forecast data related to flood disaster risk, (Escuder-Bueno
model to assess flood risk disaster, They designed an index et al., 2012) base on the SUFRI project which analyses
system based on natural disaster risk and economic society flood risk in two dimensions. The first dimension raises
vulnerability. Furthermore, they add two indices, reservoir awareness for pluvial and river flooding risk assessments
storage modulus, and flood retention basin modulus, to aid in urban areas to educate and inform policymakers, while
in the analysis of human interaction power in flood hazard the second dimension investigates human risk perception
indexes. In addition, (Shi, Zhai et al. 2019) used the FDRA by disseminating information with a social context and
index to assess the probability and effects of flood analyzing trends in how people perceive floods. The study
disasters in Xiamen, which is one of the cities in China reveals that the application of these two dimensions or
with the most severe flood disasters.They based their methodologies appears to be a key tool for the decision-
studies on the risk theory, and their findings show that maker in their role of assessing flood disaster risk. Still in
Xiamen's flooding and drainage control capacities are the same vein, (Pistrika, Tsakiris, & Nalbantis,
insufficient, resulting in high flood risk. Apart from 2014)established a methodology to assist water managers
socioeconomic negatives externalities of flood to an and authorities in developing rational flood-prevention
area,(Garrote, Diez-Herrero, Escudero, & García, 2020) plans.This is possible following a three steps assessment
emphasize the negatives impacts which flood has on the approach to assess flood disaster risk, where the first step
cultural aspect of Castile and Legion regions in Spain, involves anayizing hazard which incorporate both
which is composed of 2155 cultural heritages.Likewise, probabilities occurrence couple with anticipating potential
(Aerts, Botzen, et al., 2018) carried out a study which was damages; The second step is to assess flood vulnerability

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Franklin et al. International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science, 8(5)-2021

in flood-prone areas, and the third and final step is to The researcher obtained flood damage data from the
assess flood risk. National Archives in Buea (NAB), the National Archives
Equally, to assess physical and socioeconomic in Yaounde (NAY), the Ministry of Territorial
vulnerability, where the former comprise of susceptibility Administration and Decentralization (MINATD), and the
and exposure whilst the latter is based on quantitative and Limbe district, which is located in the Limbe province of
qualitative indicators,(Cutter, 1996) developed an index Cameroon (former urban council). The Limbe Urban
that assesses flood risk into four dimensions which are Council data consist of different flood and storm events of
high, moderate, moderately low and low. This index four different years. The database containsa large set of
mention can categorize flood risk in four dimensions and it direct flood data in ten categories; Maximum annual
acts as a key tool to handle flood disaster risk. (Bang et al., precipitation, Drainage density, Nature of topography, Soil
2019),faced with the alarming nature of natural and texture, Population in the unit area, Reported health cases,
manmade disaster risk in Cameroon. despite the various Building destroy, Roads and bridge damage,
engagement of the country to an international framework Electricity/water installation damage, Gross domestic
such as the Sendai frameworks and recommendations with product (USD). These 10 categories are quantified.
the aim at promoting RRD in developing countries, Due to 3.2 Data processing
resistance in communication, coordination of DRR The data has been compiled at the Limbe urban council
operations, availability of services, foreign assistance, from different localities that are: Lumpsum, Mile Two,
formulation of DRR plans and policies, and integration Church Street, New Town, Lower Cassava, Clerk's
into sustainable development plans, the country still faces Quarter, Down Beach, and Manga William's, Motowoh
some significant constraints. Equally,(MOFFO, TONYE, Quarters, Dockyard, Mawoh Quarters, Bimbia, Limbe1,
& Maurice, 2013), alert the devastating nature of flood in Etome, and Mokunda.The flood damage data used for
the city of Douala partly due to the heavy average rainfall analysis are data from different localities in the Limbe
of 4000mm per year during these two past decades, carry town for four different years respectively (1990, 2000,
on a study based on the methodology of (Beven & Wood, 2001, and 2007). with ten variables of Maximum annual
1983) which delineated wetlands and extract flood precipitation, Drainage density, Nature of topography, Soil
zones.Also, the literature focuses on the case of African texture, Population in the unit area, Reported health cases,
countries which are also fertile zones for flood disaster risk Building destroys, Road and bridge damage,
but the inadequate database related to past flooding Electricity/water installation damage, Gross domestic
observation and insufficient studies on the issue in Africa product (USD. Each year an observation is carried out for
expose the latter to high risk of flood disaster, which has each of these locality making a total of 1400 observations.
heavy negatives consequences as point out by (Conway,
3.3 Flood risk assessment using the Fuzzy Information
2009). This situation can justify the occurrence of flood
Optimization Method
disasters and the inefficiency of African authorities in their
strategies of flood disaster risk reduction. The Fuzzy Information Optimization Method (FOP) was
used in this study to assess flood disaster risk. This
Nevertheless, (Talha, Maanan, Atika, Rhinane, &
approach employs fuzzy mathematical theory to create an
Sciences, 2019) faced with an alarming number of flood
overall assessment of complex problems that are
disaster records in Africa and in the Western part of
influenced by several factors.This approach is used to
Morocco couple with huge direct and indirect damage in
determine flood risk to remove any ambiguity or confusion
terms of properties and human life which has a great
that might occur during the assessment
incidence on the economy.
process.Furthermore, using fuzzy set theory and fuzzy
logic, fop converts qualitative evaluation into quantitative
III. METHODOLOGY evaluation, allowing it to provide or obtain precise
To assess flood risk in Limbe, this study uses a fuzzy evaluation results.Fuzzification, fuzzy inference, and
information optimization approach making use of data defuzzification are the three steps in a fuzzy scheme or
from the national archives in Limbe. Weights for flood solution.. Fuzzification is the means of transforming
damage attributes are generated using the AHP. After that, qualitative to quantitative values in a proposal using the
the weighting result is combined with the fuzzy membership functionThe membership function and control
information optimization method to rate the flood risk of rules are combined to produce variables or indexes in the
different Limbe neighborhoods. fuzzy inference process.Defuzzification is the process of
combining the outcomes of each rule to generate the final
3.1 Data used
result. In this study, the three processes above Fuzzy

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classification, membership features, and comprehensive the level interval.The interval grade value(Δ) of the raster
evaluation all correspond to each other. data fuzzy subset is determined by the lower value of the
3.3.1 Fuzzy Classification standard deviation difference.Each raster data set is graded
on the same interval value. There are five interval points in
When FOP was used to determine flood risk, it was
each.
divided into five categories: very low, low, moderate, high,
and very high, respectively.standard deviation statistics D1, D2, D3, D4, D5(Table1).
and the value of each raster layer were used to determine
EACH FACTOR'S INTERVAL VALUE
TABLE 1
Kind of index Δ D1 D2 D3 D4 D5
2
Maximum annual Precipitation (m/m ) 70 150 220 290 360 430
Drainage density (m/m2) 0.0010 0.006 0.0016 0.0026 0.0036 0.0046
Nature of topography 0.34 1.20 1.54 1.88 2.22 2.56
Soil texture 5 8 13 18 23 28
Population per unit area /105m2) 2.65 1.20 3.85 6.15 9.15 11.80
Reported health cases 19 20 39 58 77 96
Building destroyed 16 83 99 115 131 147
Roads and bridge damage 7 5 12 19 26 33
Electricity/water installation damage 15 8 23 38 53 68
Gross domestic product (USD) 2218 1120 3338 5556 7774 9992

3.3.2 Membership function membership functions exist such as Waveforms such as


The fuzzy set is used to quantize fuzziness through Gaussian, bell-shaped, sigmoidal, triangular, trapezoidal,
membership functions (MFs), it helps to eliminate the and so on. Since floods are short-duration events, the
uncertainty while obtaining a fuzzy evaluation matrix. trapezoidal and triangle waveforms must be chosen to
That is the determination of suitable membership function describe the piecewise functions.
can be critical for risk assessment results. Many types of

Fig.2: Fuzzy set of membership functions

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Franklin et al. International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science, 8(5)-2021

i= 1,2,……..10; j = 1,2,3,4,5. Pi represents the raster data of index i. In Fig 2, Pi has two levels of membership that is Ui2
and Ui3.
Sets of formulas (Equation (1)- (5)) can be used to obtain the fuzzy membership function value
of each factor related to the five evaluation levels.

1 0 ≤ x ≤ D1
D2 −pi
ui1 (pi ) = { D1 < 𝑥 < D2 (1)
D2 −D1
0 x ≥ D2

0 pi ≤ D1 or g i ≥ D3
pi −D1
D1 < pi < D2
D2 −D1
ui2 (pi ) = (2)
1 pi = D2
D3 −pi
{ D2 < pi < D3
D3 −D2

0 pi ≤ D2 or pi ≥ D4
pi −D2
D2 < pi < D3
D3 −D2
ui3 (pi ) = (3)
1 pi = D3
D4 −pi
{ D3 < pi < D4
D4 −D3

0 pi ≤ D3 or pi ≥ D5
pi −D3
D3 < pi < D4
D4 −D3
ui4 (pi ) = (4)
1 pi = D4
D5 −pi
{ D4 < pi < D5
D5 −D4

0 pi ≤ D4
pi −D4
ui5 (pi ) = { D4 < pi < D5 (5)
D5 −D4
1 pi ≥ D5

3.3.3 Comprehensive Evaluation


The membership values establish the evaluation matrix T.
additionally,the associated flood disaster risk indicators
𝑡11 𝑡12 … 𝑡15
𝑡21 𝑡22 … 𝑡25
. . .
𝑇= . . . (6)
. . .
[ 𝑡𝑖1 𝑡𝑖2 𝑡𝑖5 ]
𝑡𝑖𝑗 = 𝑢𝑗 (𝑝𝑖 ), 𝑖 = 1,2, … ,10, 𝑗 = 1,2, … , 5.

Given the difficulty of assessing flood disaster risk, this variables was taken into account, which are as follows:
paper employs raster data layers as a flood disaster risk 0.3295, 0.1793, 0.0456, 0.1601, 0.0852, 0.0425, 0.0212,
index, resulting in the establishment of a hierarchical 0.0631, 0.0140, and 0.0072.
structure of flood disaster risk assessment indexes based
on an analytic hierarchy process (AHP).The weight of ten

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Franklin et al. International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science, 8(5)-2021

IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS of these areas is simply because of its location at the
The flood disaster risk map was obtained for the various coastal area or areas along rivers. whereas the medium risk
localities in Limbe. High-risk, medium-risk, and low-risk zones include Bimbia, Limbe1, most especially
zones are represented on the diagram. zones of high areas Moviokulu, Batoke, and Limbe III particularly Camps
are Cassava farms, Clerks Quarters, Down Beach, Three. Etome, Mokunda, and Limbe II Mokundange are
Lumpsum, Church Street, Mawoh Quarters, Motowoh low-risk zones. The low-risk zone is because of High
Quarters, and Dockyard. The reason for the high-risk zone Mountain and low population.

Fig. 2. Map showing the flood-affected areas in Limbe


Source: Adapted from the map of Limbe, NIC (2016)

4.1 Risks validation high-risk areas.Flooded areas are well considered to be


Flood risk validation is the process of high-risk areas.Based on the information and findings of
determining the accuracy of a risk assessment by this paper, we can outline the areas of high-risk and low-
comparing it to other data to confirm the vulnerability of risk zones and their justification.
Table.2 Vulnerable Limbe Zones to flood risk
Categories of flood Limbe towns which Justification
risk vulnerabilities are prone to flood
disaster risk
Very high Down Beach church These towns are characterized by functional plains When there is a
probability street, mile two storm, water must flow or be collected. In general, these lands are
subjected to a 1 in 20 (5% ) or greater annual risk of flooding or are
planned to flood in a (0.1 percent ) flood. Also, these towns witness
permanent flooding during the peak rainy season month.
High probability New town, Clerk’s These towns have a 1 in 100 or higher annual probability of river
vulnerability quarter, Njengelle flooding (greater than 0.1 percent) or a 1 in 200 or higher annual

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Franklin et al. International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science, 8(5)-2021

Quarters, Gardens probability of sea flooding (greater than 0.5 percent) in a given year.
Similarly, these towns observed floods weekly during the last days, and
floodwaters ubiquitous.
Moderate probability Lumpsum, cassava These towns are characterized with 1 in 100 and 1 in 1000 probability
vulnerability farm, Poto-Poto of (1% to 0.1%) in a year of river flooding and a 0.5 percent annual risk
Quarter, Mahow, of sea flooding (between 1 in 200 and 1 in 1000 )Likewise, these towns
Mabeta new layout witness monthly flooding
Low probability Limbe Camp, Bota, These towns have an annual likelihood of river or sea flooding of less
vulnerability and Mile one than 1 in 1000 (0.1 percent), and floods occur only when storms are
particularly severe.

Source: (Nguh and Anumveh, 2018)

Based on the table above Down Beach, Church Street, and (1) Upgrading flood protection structures: Because of the
mile two localities in Limbe town, flood disaster risk flat terrain and low drainage, flood control or an artificial
assessment accuracy isvalidated. When a fuzzy levee, as well as the building of a hydrological system
information optimization approach is used to evaluate risk, network, has been established along the riverine.Moreover,
it can reduce a variety of uncertainties by quantifying risks Limbe camp, Bota, and Mile one have comparatively low
arising from human experience. The FOP approach is fortification criteria sincethey are located in mountainous
focused on fuzzy set and fuzzy logic theories, which areas in Limbe, can withstand floods for a longer period.
transform uncertainty into certainty in risk assessment. In This can therefore be prevented by removing dangerous
the fuzzy information optimization approach, the outcome water dam projects.
of flood risk is determined by the grade interval of various (2) Dredging of the channel in highly aggressive areas,
indicators as well as the waveform of the membership sedimentary section: The hydrodynamic environment
function. In addition, the grade interval is divided based on weakens as rivers flow out of the mountains and into the
the properties of each indicator's value as well as the plains due to the widening of the river's channel.Because
current state of the study location. of sediment aggregation, the riverbed rises, increasing the
However, it should be noted that in this paper, we used the likelihood of flooding. As a result, routine strategic
risk conceptual structure suggested by the United Nations dredging is essential to restore the natural state of
when conducting flood risk assessment research using the aggradation.
fuzzy information optimization approach.This approach 4.2.2 Non-Engineering Measures
aims to choose a more accurate and acceptable risk
There are a variety of regulations, rules, administrative
indicator while also acknowledging the effect of natural
management, and technological options for reducing flood
and socioeconomic factors on flood risk without affecting
disaster losses in floodplains.In this study, various
the final risk area result.
measures are proposed with the actual situation of our
4.2. Flood Risk Reduction study area.
The aim of a flood risk assessment is to recognize areas (1)Rules regarding land use planning: The land use in the
that are at risk of flooding and to develop flood study area, as well as the flood plain management strategy,
management strategies to reduce flood damage.. We must be carefully designed. Zones with a high chance of
suggest implementing a series of flood control and being identified as high-risk zones should be designated
mitigation steps in high-risk areas of Limbe town based on for low occupancy. Additionally, industrial and residential
the FOP's risk-zoning map and field investigation.These land should be designed to be used in high-altitude areas,
activities include engineering and non-engineering with urban development ensuring that the river channels
measures are preserved at a reasonable area.
4.2.1 Engineering Measures (2) Putting in place flood risk insurance: Flood insurance
Engineering steps apply to any location or structure that is is an effective tool for flood risk management in
used to avoid, divert, store, or drain floodwater.After floodplains.Insurance, on the other hand, is a social-
conducting a field survey in the various Limbe Town economic aid for flood-related property loss.As a result,
neighborhoods, engineering measures were requested. we propose that the government establish a flood insurance
program for residents in high-risk areas.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
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We thank the Ministry of Territorial Administration and In Managing Disasters, assessing hazards, emergencies
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