Pakistan

Affairs Outline

By Falik Shair Rana

 Energy Crisis and Pakistan
(Falik Shair Rana)

An energy crisis is any great shortfall (or price rise) in the supply of energy resources to
an economy. It usually refers to the shortage of oil and additionally to electricity or other
natural resources.

The crisis often has effects on the rest of the economy, with many recessions being
caused by an energy crisis in some form. In particular, the production costs of electricity
rise, which raises manufacturing costs.

For the consumer, the price of gasoline (petrol) and diesel for cars and other vehicles
rises, leading to reduced consumer confidence and spending, higher transportation
costs and general price rising.

Future and alternative sources of energy

Some experts argue that the world is heading towards a global energy crisis due to a
decline in the availability of cheap oil and recommend a decreasing dependency on
fossil fuel. This has led to increasing interest in alternate power/fuel research such as
fuel cell technology, hydrogen fuel, biomethanol, biodiesel, Karrick process, solar
energy, tidal energy and wind energy. To date, only hydroelectricity and nuclear power
have been significant alternatives to fossil fuel (see Future energy development), with
big ecological problems (residues and water spending). Hydrogen gas is currently
produced at a net energy loss from natural gas, which is also experiencing declining
production in North America and elsewhere. When not produced from natural gas,
hydrogen still needs another source of energy to create it, also at a loss during the
process. This has led to hydrogen being regarded as a 'carrier' of energy rather than a
'source'.

There have been alarming predictions by groups such as the Club of Rome that the
world would run out of oil in the late 20th century. Although technology has made oil
extraction more efficient, the world is having to struggle to provide oil by using
increasingly costly and less productive methods such as deep sea drilling, and
developing environmentally sensitive areas such as the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
The world's population continues to grow at a quarter of a million people per day,
increasing the consumption of energy. The per capita energy consumption of China,
India and other developing nations continues to increase as the people living in these
countries adopt western lifestyles. At present a small part of the world's population
consumes a large part of its resources, with the United States and its population of 296
million people consuming more oil than China with its population of 1.3 billion people.

Efficiency mechanisms such as Negawatt power can provide significantly increased

supply. It is a term used to describe the trading of increased efficiency, using
consumption efficiency to increase available market supply rather than by increasing
plant generation capacity.

Energy Crisis In Pakistan

Energy resources have depleted! Whatever resources are available are simply too
expensive to buy or already acquired by countries which had planned and acted long
time ago. Delayed efforts in the exploration sector have not been able to find sufficient
amounts of energy resources. Nations of the world which have their own reserves are
not supplying energy resources anymore; only the old contracts made decades ago are
active. Airplanes, trains, cars, motorbikes, buses and trucks, all modes of transportation
are coming to a stand still. Many industries have closed due to insufficient power
supply. Price of oil has gone above the ceiling. At domestic level, alternate methods like
solar, biogas and other methods are being tried for mere survival.

The above is a likely scenario of Pakistan and around the globe after 25 years. A
pessimistic view, but realistic enough to think about and plan for the future. But are we
doing anything about it? Lets have a look at the current energy situation of Pakistan and
the world.

Pakistan’s economy is performing at a very high note with GDP growing at an

exceptional rate, touching 8.35% in 2004-05.In its history of 58 years, there has been
only a few golden years where the economy grew above 7%. This year official
expectations are that GDP growth rate will be around 6.5 – 7.0%. For the coming years,
the government is targeting GDP growth rate above 6%. With economy growing at such
a pace, the energy requirements are likely to increase with a similar rate. For 2004-05,
Pakistan’s energy consumption touched 55.5 MTOE (Million Tons of Oil Equivalent).

The energy consumption is expected to grow at double digit if the overall economy
sustains the targeted GDP growth rate of 6% by the government. Pakistan’s energy
requirements are expected to double in the next few years, and our energy
requirements by 2015 is likely to cross 120MTOE. By 2030, the nation’s requirement will
be 7 times the current requirement reaching 361MTOE. Pakistan’s energy requirements
are fulfilled with more than 80% of energy resources through imports.

On the other hand, international oil prices have not only broken all records but are
touching new highs, with every news directly or indirectly affecting the black gold
industry. Moreover, speculators all around the world expect oil prices to touch $100 per
barrel in medium term. With concerns over Iran’s nuclear program, terrorist issues in
Nigeria and high economic growth in China & India and their ever rising energy
requirements, oil prices don’t see any another way but to shoot upwards.

What is the government doing to ensure a sustainable supply of energy resources for
economic growth? What strategic steps are being taken to acquire energy resources in
future? Is private sector willing to invest in Pakistan’s oil industry? What are the
incentives being offered to the foreign players to continue working in the exploration
sector? What hurdles are stopping other big players around the world to enter Pakistan?
What is the role of gas distribution companies so far? Are the citizens of Pakistan being
robbed by energy giants with ever rising utility bills? What should be the real price of
petroleum, kerosene and other oil products in Pakistan? When will the nation have “load
shedding free” electric supply? Have we been able to make long term contracts with the
countries to provide uninterrupted supply of energy resources? Will the government be
able to provide enough sources to the citizens for a sustainable economic growth? Have
we lost the race for acquiring maximum energy resources for future survival?

The country may plunge into energy crisis by the year 2009 due to rising electricity
demand which enters into double digit figure following increasing sale of electrical and
electronic appliances on lease finance, it is reliably learnt Thursday.

“The country may face energy crisis by the year 2009 following healthy growth of 13 per
cent in electricity demand during the last quarter, which will erode surplus production in
absence of commissioning of any new power generation project during this financial
year,” informed sources told The Nation.

As per Pakistan Economic Survey 2003-04, electricity consumption has increased by

8.6 per cent during first three-quarter of last fiscal year. However, a top level WAPDA
official maintained that electricity demand surged up to 13 per cent during last quarter.

The survey said household sector has been the largest consumer of electricity
accounting for 44.2 per cent of total electricity consumption followed by industries 31.1
per cent, agriculture 14.3 per cent, other government sector 7.4 per cent, commercial
5.5 per cent and street light 0.7 per cent.

Keeping in view the past trend and the future development, WAPDA has also revised its
load forecast to eight per cent per annum as against previous estimates of five per cent
on average. Even the revised load forecast has also failed all assessments due to which
Authority has left no other option but to start load management this year, which may
convert into scheduled loadshedding over a period of two year, sources maintained.
The country needs a quantum jump in electricity generation in medium-term scenario to
revert the possibilities of loadshedding in future due to shrinking gap between demand
and supply of electricity at peak hours.

According to an official report, the gap between firm supply and peak hours demand has
already been shrunk to three digit (440 MW) during this fiscal and will slip into negative
columns next year (-441 MW) and further intensify to (-1,457 MW) during the financial
year 2006-07.

The report maintained that the difference between firm supply and peak demand is
estimated at 5,529 MW by the year 2009-10 when firm electricity supply will stand at
15,055 MW against peak demand of 20,584 MW.

Chairman WAPDA Tariq Hamid at a Press conference early this year warned about the
possible energy crisis and stressed the need for ‘quantum jump’ in power generation.
The experts say it could only be possible through a mega project of hydropower
generation, otherwise the gap between firm supply and peak demand will remain on the
rise.

They said the power generation projects, which are due to commission in coming years
are of low capacity and will not be able to exceed the surging demand of the electricity.

They say no power generation project will commission during this fiscal year and the
total installed capacity of electricity generation will remain 19,478 MW to meet 15,082
MW firm supply and 14,642 MW peak demand.

Giving details of projects, the sources said Malakand-lll (81MW), Pehur (18MW) and
combined cycle power plant at Faisalabad (450MW) are planned to be commissioned
during the year 2007. Mangla Dam raising project would also add 150 MW capacity to
the national grid by June 2007. Besides this, Khan Khwar (72MW), Allai Khwar
(121MW), Duber Khwar (130MW) and Kayal Khwar (130MW) are expected to be
completed in 2008 along with Golan Gol (106MW) and Jinnah (96MW). Moreover,
Matiltan (84MW), New Bong Escape (79MW) and Rajdhani (132MW) are expected by
2009 while Taunsa (120MW) is likely to be completed by 2010.

Sources say WAPDA has also planned to install a high efficiency combined cycle power
plant at Baloki (450MW), which is expected to be completed by 2010. In addition of
these, power plant 1 & 2 of 300 MW each at Thar Coal with the assistance of China are
also planned for commissioning in 2009, sources said. Moreover, efforts are also under
way with China National Nuclear Corporation for the construction of a third nuclear
power plant with a gross capacity of 325 MW at Chashma, they added.
When contacted, a WAPDA official said there is no power shortage in the country at
present as the Authority still has over 1,000 MW surplus electricity. However, he
admitted that the shortage may occur in the year 2007 and onward and said the
Authority will utilise all options including running of IPPs plant at full capacity to avert
any possible crisis.

About the system augmentation to bring down line losses, the official said the Authority
would spend Rs 3.5 billion on augmentation of distribution lines this fiscal while another
Rs 5 billion will be consumed on transmission lines. “We have been negotiating Rs 9
billion loan with a consortium of local banks to upgrade and augment the power
transmission system,” he disclosed. The official further said that five new transmission
lines of 220-KV would be installed by the end of 2004, that would ensure smooth supply
to the consumers. He expressed full trust on present transmission and distribution
system and said it could easily sustain the load of total installed power generation in the
country

PAKISTAN-INDIA RELATIONS AND PEACE PROCESS

OUTLINES:

BUS SERVICES: (CBMs)

 Amrtasir-nankana sahib
 Lahore-Delhi
 Muzfarabad-srinagar
 Khokhrapar-monabao
PEACE INITIATIVES:

President Auyb’s offer of Joint Defence 1958

President Zia ul Haq’s offer of ‘No War Pact’
Nawaz Sharif’s proposals of ‘Non-aggression Pact and Arms Control and Arms
reduction’
 Musharaf’s proposal of self governance
UNRESOLVED CONFLICTS:

 the Kashmir dispute

 Wullar Barrage
 Baghiliar Dam
 Siachin
 Sir Creek
 Terrorism
KASHMIR:

 existence of freedom struggle since 1989

 the presence of huge Indian security forces round about 700000
 the continuous gross violations of human rights arson, rape, violence
 the infiltration of sympathetic elements from outside
 Existence of Kashmir related disputes such as Wullar Barrage, Baghiliar Dam
and Siachin.
 Pakistan’s stand: LOC cannot be accepted as the permanent international border
and has often also expressed that LOC is part of the problem and not part of the
solution whereas India has been stressing that there would be no redrawing of
the borders. India considers LOC permanent int’l border.
TWO APPROACHES TO PAKISTAN-INDIA PEACE PROCESS:

1. Either takes up the relatively less complicated issues/dispute first and after
having resolved them, and then take up the complicated issues/dispute.
2. Alternatively one could start by focusing on the main dispute first and then
concentrate on other issues/disputes. Both approaches are frequently
employed.
WATER DISPUTE:

 The water dispute surfaced when the Indian Punjab cut off the flow of
waters in April 1948.
 Neither Kashmir nor any other dispute could induce Pakistan to begin to
entertain the possibility of a full fledged war with India except the water
dispute.
 Indus Water Treaty: EUGENE BLACK OF WB.
1. The treaty allotted the waters of three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum,
and Chenab) and those of eastern rivers (Ravi, Bias, and Sutlej) to
India.
 2. The treaty also envisaged the construction of link canal system,
storage dams, power generation and an elaborate network of tube
wells for drainage purposes.
3. For smooth operation of the treaty a permanent India-Pakistan Indus
Commission was established.
 Current water disputes:
1. Wullar Lake Barrage
2. Baglihar Dam
3. Kishanganga Project
Wullar Lake barrage issue:

 Emerged in 1985 when Pakistan came to know about Indian plans to

construct a barrage on the Wullar Lake which was known in India as
Tulbul navigation project.
 The barrage was to be constructed on river Jhelum near the town of Sopor
where it flows out of the lake.
 The Indian stated objected was to construct the barrage for the improved
navigational facilities in the river Jhelum during the winter season.
 For Pakistan the main worry was a barrage on that site could jeopardize
and effectively damage the three canal system consisting of Upper Jhelum
Canal, Upper Chenab Canal and Lower Bari Doab Canal.
 India argued that Tulbul project would be beneficial for the Pakistanis;
Pakistan argued that India has violated the Indus Water Treaty.
 In light of Indus water treaty: treaty which clearly stipulated that India is
entitled to construct an ‘incidental storage capacity’ provided the design
has been examined and approved by Pakistan on one hand and the
storage capacity of does not exceed 0.1 MAF of water on the other. It
needs to be mentioned here that the capacity of Wullar Lake barrage is
3.0MAF.
 As per provisions of the treaty the case was referred to the Permanent
Indus Commission in 1986 but it could not resolve it and by 1987 it
recorded its failure.
 The Indian stopped the construction work on the project, the Pakistanis
decided not to refer it to the World Bank. The ensuing period witnessed
several rounds of talks between the two parties but they could not reach
an agreement. In 2005 the Indians changed the structural design but it
was once again rejected by the Pakistanis on grounds that it was against
the spirit and provision of the Indus water Treaty.
The Baglihar Dam:

 A 450 MW (eventually 900 MW) hydropower project is being

constructed on the river Chenab. This project has serious repercussion
for Pakistan. The Pakistanis argue that India stores waters in a
reservoir behind the gated spillways depriving Pakistan its share of
Chenab waters which is a violation of the Indus water treaty. 
 The construction on the Baglihar dam project on the river Chenab
started in 1999 though it was conceived and approved much earlier. In
order to quickly complete the project the Indians have currently
employed several hundreds of engineers and the laborers. The reports
indicated that they have hired the services of many more individuals to
speed up the construction work with ostensible aim of confronting
Pakistan with a fait accompli.
 According to the Indus water treaty of 1960, the unrestricted flow of
Chenab waters was allocated to Pakistan. However it needs to be
mentioned here that India was allowed the use of limited waters of
western rivers for development of irrigation, generation of electric
power along with other uses that were spelled out in the annexes of
the treaty.
 Pakistan’s objection and reservations about the project primarily deals
with the design which allows more flow of waters than what is
permissible under the Indus water treaty.
 Even the Pakistanis were allowed to visit the site. After the visit the
Pakistanis became even more convinced that if the dam is constructed
in accordance with the current design, Pakistan is likely to lose 7000 to
8000 cusecs a day. This implies that Pakistan will have to learn to live
with these losses.
 Cognizant of the likely losses the Pakistanis initially tried to have the
necessary rectification of design done at the Indus Commissioners
level but once they were unable to secure a desired agreement, the
dispute-level was raised to the level of secretaries of water and power.
The two sides have met many times but have so far not been able to
work out a mutually acceptable agreement. Eventually the dispute was
referred to the World Bank and a neutral expert was appointed who,
after listening to both sides is in the process of finalizing his verdict.
 Judged by any yardstick the failure to reach an agreement over the
Baglihar dam is bound to take not only a heavy chunk of existing
goodwill and cordiality of atmosphere but would also strengthen the
belief that India is employing age old delaying tactics.  Whether or not
this failure would adversely impact upon the ongoing composite
dialogue remains to be seen but there is no doubt it would certainly
dampen the existing optimism.
Kishanganga hydro project:

 For this project India intends to divert the waters of the Neelam
River. When Kishanganga River enters Pakistani Kashmir it is
known as Neelam River. River Neelam is an important tributary of
river Jhelum.
 Pakistan has articulated its objections in the form of six questions;
three are related to the design, two on diversion and one on power
house. The diversion tunnel would reduce the flow of water by 27%.
  Besides Pakistan has a plan to construct 969 MW hydropower
project on the river Neelam. In fact they have already spent 71
million rupees on it. Similarly the Indians have completed 75%
tunnel construction work. Since Indians have demonstrated a
tendency to work fast and present the Pakistanis a fait accompli,
they have already accelerated the work. Pakistan has decided in
Nov. 2005 to refer the case to World Bank soon.
Third round of talks:

Bus service b/w rawlakot and poonch, truck service b/w muzafarabad and
Srinagar.
 Musharaf’s proposal for demilitarization of three districts Srinagar, baramulla,
kupwara. Plus self government for Kashmiri (pre-1953 status- article-370 will
end) Indian foreign secretary associated it with Pakistan’s recognition of LOC as
permanent border.
 Past efforts for building nuclear and other CBMs were reviewed.
HOW TO STRENGTHEN PEACE PROCESS:

1. Five openings at LOC should be opened permanently. The LOC came into
existence following the end of 1971 Indo-Pak wars and subsequent
signing of the Simla Agreement.
2. Jinnah house at Malabar, Mumbai should be handed to Pakistan as Nehru
had said in 1955. It will be great CBM.
3. Musharaf’s proposal for demilitarization and self government must be
considered seriously.
4. Opening of consulates at Karachi and Mumbai must be fastened.
5. Media’s role in peace efforts is crucial as it has tremendous impact upon
people to people contacts.
6. India has certain reservations on few hundred NATO forces, which are on
earthquake help mission, these reservations must be cleared.
7. Siachin issue must have been solved earlier in 1989, now time is ripe to
announce Siachin Mountain of peace.
8. there is need of more CBMs:
 Opening of more routes.
 Initiating trucking business.
 Facilitating visa procedures.
 Evolve some conflict resolution mechanism.
HOW INDIA HAS CHANGED:

1. India has left gandhian policy of pacifism:

 16 violent uprisings in different parts of India.
 Emergence of sangh parivar.
 Domestic violence against minorities.
2. India has become nuclear state:
3. India has left policy of non-alignment.
 4. India has opted for Hindu nationalism long coveted goal of mahasabhites.
Left secularism and adopted policy of hinduisation of India.
LINE OF CONTROL:

 The LOC came into existence following the end of 1971 Indo-Pak wars and
subsequent signing of the Simla Agreement. While many clauses of such
agreements resulting from the cession of armed hostilities are often similar in nature
and undoubtedly important but one specific clause of the Simla Agreement dealing
directly with the Kashmir dispute is of particular significance. According to this clause
'the line of control resulting from cease-fire of Dec. 17, 1971 shall be respected by
both sides without prejudice to the recognized position of either side'. This clause not
only allowed the retention of forcibly occupied territories but also highlighted the
existence of Kashmir dispute with allowances to their respective views of the
dispute.
 For India it meant that she could disassociate the new line from the old UN cease-
fire line (that came into existence in 1949) and also keep the strategic posts that she
occupied during the course of 1971 war. For Pakistan the LOC symbolized not only
its successful resistance to Indian efforts to resolve the ongoing Kashmir dispute on
the basis of status quo favoring India but was also a way to keep the issue alive
despite the existence of overwhelming odds against Pakistan.
INDIAN POLICY ON KASHMIR: SHIFTING STRATEGIES

1953- Process of integration of held Kashmir into Indian federation started.

1971- Demanded permanence of LOC.
1987- operation brass tacks
1989- Curbing Kashmir uprising, blaming Pakistan, 1992 standoff.
1998- Threat to attack Azad Kashmir.
1999- Agra summit- issue of cross border terrorism
2002- Demand of twenty people to be handed over to India, pressurized by large
scale movement of forces.
INDO-ISRAELI NEXUS:

Similarities:

1.
Both propagate the purity and superiority of race
2.
share somewhat bitter historical legacies
3.
suffer from delusions of greatness
4.
demonstrate almost regularly animosity against the Muslims
5.
assertively stress that the past subjugations and deprivation will 'Never Again' be
allowed to manifest
Areas of co-operation:

1. the defense sector

2. the intelligence services
3. training how to counter Intifadah and freedom movements
 India had established full diplomatic relation with Israel in 1992, the warming of
relations only surfaced during the BJP regime.

Defense co-operation:

 Acquire three Phalcon airborne warning and control systems (AWACS), radar
system, surface-to-surface missiles and up-gradation of aircrafts.
 Increased cooperation between India's aircraft firm Hindustan Aeronautics and its
Israeli counterpart Israel Aircraft Industry.
Intelligence co-operation:

 The intelligence failure prior to and during the Kargil clashes influenced the Indian
authorities to seek help from the Israeli intelligence services.
 Israeli teams consisting of senior Intelligence officers have been frequently visiting
India in order to train and familiarize the Indian intelligence community with
advanced and relatively more successful techniques. Many RAW's agents have
already acquired the benefits of growing closer ties between the intelligence
communities of the two countries.
Containing Mujahideen in Kashmir:

 The focal point of Advani's visit to Israel was to seek the assistance of the Israelis
in order to effectively cope with the Mujahideen operations. Advani specifically
toured the electronic fence area along the Israeli borders with Lebanon, saw
functioning of new security system at the Ben Gurion airport, and watched a
demonstration of a pilot less drone used for border surveillance.
 Several independent sources have openly highlighted the presence of many Israeli
intelligence teams in Kashmir that are now providing training to Indian forces in
counter insurgence measures.
Conclusion:

The growing Indo-Israeli nexus is not only dangerous for Pakistan and the Muslim world
but it would also provide to the Israeli the much desired access and partnership with the
main Indian Ocean power. The emerging changes do not augur well for the stability of
whole region. Beside the Indo-Israeli nexus could assume strategically dangerous
dimension in the global power games. While one is policing the region of oil wealth, the
other is engaged in efforts to contain the anticipated emerging power. But both seem to
be serving the interest of a third party.

AGRA SUMMIT:

 Indians refuse to talk with military president of Pakistan while continued to grow
relations with military regime of Myanmar.
 The thaw in attitudes began to be registered when the Hizb-ul-Mujahideen
offered to observe cease-fire. Although the cease fire offer was soon withdrawn
because of lack of positive response from India, but many in Pakistan were
expecting that India would respond in some manner at a time of its own
 choosing. The Ramadan cease-fire offer by Vajpayee confirmed what many in
Pakistan had already anticipated.
 Inevitably the media hype more or less mentally prepared everyone to await a
major but a positive breakthrough. Indeed the deadlock preventing the issuance
of final joint declaration disappointed many.
PAKISTAN-INDIA:

 Initial problems:
1. evacuee property: sharing of records of divided provinces, no ordinance
factory
2. Radcliff award and massacres: unjust and perverse award resulted in
massacres.
3. princely states: Kashmir, munavader, junagadh, Hyderabad
4. Kashmir war 1948: accession, tribal invasion, srinagar, UNO, cease fire,
CFL, UNOGIP
5. Indus waters: April 1948 stopped, Eugene black, treaty, fund, commission
6. Division of assets: Rs.4000 million, Pak share: Rs. 7 crore. Rs. 5.5 crore
paid.
7. Devaluation of Indian rupee: sell of Jute and import of coal problem.
 Kashmir problem: geo-economically linked to Pakistan, Radcliff award provided
access to Kashmir, Mountbatten responsible, pseudo-accession in 27 oct. 1947,
and 24 Oct: tribal attack. 1948 war, cease fire, UNO findings, and 1962-63 six
rounds of talks: pak wanted plebiscite and other options while India wanted
permanence of CFL. Pressure of USA and Colombo powers.
 Causes of 1965 war: erosion of article 370, special status of Kashmir ended,
sacred relic from hazrat ball stolen, anti-Muslim riots in west Bengal, clashes of
rann of kutchh. 6 – 22 sept war: ops Gibraltar and ops Malta. 4-10 January
Tashkent conference.
 1971 war and debacle of Pakistan: Simla conference 28 June – 03 July 1972.
 Beneficial bilateralism: SAARC founded in 1986, Siachin 1982, Kashmir
uprising 1989, May 1990 stand off. 1998 nuclear tests.
 Ostpolitik of benazir Bhutto: two summit level talks between Benazir and Rajiv.

Ideology of Pakistan

Introduction:

 Definition
 Why Ideology?
 Pre requisites
 Different ideologies (types)
Ideology of Pakistan – its basis (Two Nation Theory, just 3, 4 lines)

Importance of Ideology:

1. Identity
2. Motivation
3. Binding force
4. Establishment of culture and civilization
Pre- requisites of Ideology:

1. Beliefs
2. Values
3. Ideals
Ideology of Pakistan:

Aims and Objectives

 Sovereignty of Allah
 Implementation of Islamic principles
 Islamic democracy
 Socio-cultural system
 Balance economic system

Factors responsible for emergence of ideology of Pakistan or creation of Muslim

Nationalism:

 Historical Factors
 Religious
 Political
 Economic
 Socio-cultural
 Education
 Literature
 Art
 Philosophy
 Psychological
 Spiritual

Conclusion:
 Two Nation Theory

Introduction:

 Definition of nation
 Two nations

Enunciation of two nation theory:

 History
 Sir Sayed
 External evidence
 British Admittance 1909 “M.M reforms”
 Hindu Admittance 1916 “L.Pact”

Separate electorate and T.N.T:

Two Nation Theory and Sir Sayed:

T.N.T and Allama Iqbal:

T.N.T and Quaid-i-Azam:

Factors behind Two Nation Theory:

 Hindu-Urdu controversy (1867)

 Formation of congress and Hindu attitude (1885)
 Partition of Bengal and its annulment (1905- 1911)
 Khalafat-Movement & its outcomes (1919)
 Nehru Report (1928)
 Congress Ministries 1935 and Hindu Policies
Conclusion:

Sheikh Ahmad Sirhindi (1564-1624)

Introduction:

 History

Evils of society:

 Religious
 Social
 Political
 Spiritual/ Ideological

Results of Evils:

 Belief in Karamat
 Denial of Shariah
 No referral to Quraan/Hadith
 Promotion of Hinduism

Revival efforts of Sheikh A. Sirhindi:

 Preach of Sunnah through his disciples

 Letters to scholars
 Opposition of Mysticism
 Opposition of Din-i-Elahi
 Patch up efforts between Scholars and Mystics
  Teachings to Nobles
 Deliver solumns
 Opposition of Atheism
 Preach to common people about basics of Islam

Wahdat-ul-Wajood vs Wahdat-ul-Shahud:

Sheikh Ahmad and T.N.T.:

S.A.S influence on history of Indian Muslims:

Conclusion:

Aligarh Movement (Sir Sayyed 1817-1898)

Introduction:

 History (after effects of 1857)

 Nehru’s comments
 Sir Sayed’s View

Sir Sayed’s crusade for the uplift of Muslims:

 Two fronts fight (to convince British as well as Muslims)

Importance of A.G.Movement:

Educational Services:

 Speeches
 Articles
 Journals
  Scientific Society
 Pamphlets
 School at Ghazipur
 Tehzib-ul-Akhlaq
Religious Services (Reformation):

 Rational Philosopher
 Khutabat-e-Ahmadia (against William Moor)
 Analysis of Quraan
 Ijtehad
Social Services:

 Profession (Agric and trade)

 Simplicity in life
 National dress
 Tahzeb-ul-Akhlaq
 Ahkaam-e-taam-e- ehl-e-Kitab
Political Services:

 Aloofness from politics

 Causes of Indian Revolt (Asbab-e-bghawat-e-Hind)
 Loyal Muhammadans of India
 British Indian Association
 Opposed Western Democracy
 Two Nation Theory
 Separate Electorates
Critical analysis:

Conclusion:

Shah Waliullah (Qutub-ud-Din 1703-1762)

Introduction:

 History
 Life of Shah Waliullah
 Point of View

Condtions:

 Idle nobles
  General ignorance of Islam
 Sectarian conflict
 Emergence of feudal lords
 Undue burden on Exchequer
 Poor understanding of Quraan
 Heavy taxation
 Petticoat Govt. influence

Religious Services:

 Crusades against sectarianism

 Translation of Quraan in Persian
 Balance between four schools of thoughts
 School for Hadith (MAdrassa-e-Rahimia)
 Reintroduction of Ijtehad
 Controversy between Sufis and Ulemas
 Social-Moral regeneration
 Importance of Jihad

Economic Services:

 Heavy taxation
 Equal distribution of wealth

Political Services:

 Arise of Marhatas and Sikhs

 Letter to various Chieftains
 Ahmad Shah Abdali and 3rd battle of Panipat (1761)

Critical analysis:

Conclusion:
Syed Ahmad Shaheed (Jihad Movement 1786-
1831)

Introduction:

 History
 Life
 Sirat-e-Mustkeem (Book)
 Military career

Objectives:

 Renaissance of Islam through;

Preaching

Jihad

Preparation for War against Sikhs:

Declaration of War:

Enforcement of Shariah in Peshawar:

Battle of Balakot and his Martyrdom:

Causes for the failure of Movement:

 Lack of cooperation among masses and Mujahidin

 Lack of funds
 Lack of sophisticated weapons and trained personals
 Crisis/ gap/ absence of leadership
 Propaganda of Sikhs against S.A.Shahaeed
Critical analysis:

Conclusion:

Darul uloom Deoband (1866)

Introduction:

 History
 Aligarh point of view
 Deoband point of view

Credo of Deoband:

 Religious nationalism
 Defence of religion

Personalities:

 Maulana M.Qasim
 Maulana Shabbir A.Usmani
 M.Ahmad-ul-Hassan

Influence of Deoband:

 World over (after Al-Azhr university of Egypt)

 Religiously
 Administratively
 Politically
 Socially

Comparison with Aligarh Movement:

  Religious
 Educational
 Political

Critical analysis:

Conclusion:

Nadwa-tul-uloom Lucknow (1894)

Introduction:

 History
 Aligarh point of view
 Deoband point of view
 Nadwa point of view
Objectives:

 To promote religious and modern education

 Moral uplift of muslim society
 Remove sectarian differences
 To keep aloof from politics

Maulana Shibli Naumani and Nadwa:

Achievements of Nadwa:

 Modern and Islamic education

 Ambassador between traditional and modern school of thoughts
 Produced Islamic literature

Critical analysis:

Conclusion:
 Partition of Bangal (October 16, 1905)

Introduction:

 Background
 Administrative ease

Causes/ Reasons of Partition:

 Too big size

 Lack of communication
 Different language and civilization
 Deterioration of Agriculture
 High rate of crimes
 Trade
 Education
 No progress in Eastern parts/ Districts

Partition plane:

 East Bangal and Aasam

 West Bangal and Orissa and Bihar

Muslim response:

Hindu response:

Annulment at Delhi “Coronation Darbar” December 12, 1911.

Results/ effects:

 Self confidence
 Congress attitude
 Sir Syed theory
 Dacca importance
Critical analysis:

Conclusion:

Simla Deputation (1906)

Introduction:

 Background
 Lord Minto
 Lord Curzon

Resons behind Simla Deputation:

 Joint electorate
 Changing international scenario
 Congress attitude
 Resignation of Fuller
 Immediate reasons (constitutional reforms)

Simla Deputation:

 Total members
 Archbold
 Sir Agha Khan
 Ismael Khan
 Mohsan-ul-Mulk
 Viqar-ul-Mulk

Recommendations:

 Separate electorate
 Quota in services
 Muslim Judges
 Representation in Univ. syndicate
 Establishment of Muslim University
 Protect of Muslim identity

Viceroy’s Response:
  Encouraging
 Command performance
 M.A.Johar
 Rajindra Parasad

Critical analysis:

Conclusion:

Muslim League (1906)

Introduction:

 Background

Causes/ Reasons for the formation of Muslim League:

 Eruption of educated Muslim classes

 Indifferent attitude of Congress towards Muslims
 To save Muslim identity
 Difference of Political views
 Education and Economic background
 Evolution of Minto reform
 Success of Simla deputation

Formation of M.L:

 Mohammadan educational conference

 Nawab Salim ullah Khan

Objectives:

 To create loyalty towards British

 To safeguard Muslim rights
 To create harmony between Muslims and other groups.
Critical analysis:

 Conception of a nation
 Platform for political struggle
 Evolution of Pakistan movement

Conclusion:

Anjaman Hamayat-e-Islam (1884)

Introduction:

 Background (Khalifa Hameed-ud-Din, Masjid Bakan Khan)

 Link with Aligarh
 Fund raising
 Restricted to Punjab only

Objectives:

 Modern education
 To check Christian missionaries
 Orphan houses
 Strife for social and cultural uplift
 To organize Muslims politically

Services:

 Educational (colleges)
 Religious (against Christian missionaries)
 Social (orphan houses)
 Political (MSF)

Critical analysis:
Conclusion:

Sindh Madrassa-tul-Islam Karachi (1885)

Introduction:

 Background (Sayed Hassan Ali Aafandi)

 Inspired from Aligarh
 Funding from Govt. by Sir Sayed
 Later stopped fund raising
 1/3rd property given by Quaid
 Quaid’s basic education from the Madrassa

Critical analysis:

Conclusion:

Khilafat Movement (1919)

Introduction:

 Background

Origin:

 Promise by British
 Violation of promise
 Rowllat Act and Jallianwala Bagh incidence (1919)
Formation of Khilafat committee:

Muslim delegation visit to Europe:

Movement gains momentum:

 Fatwa by Ulema (Dar-ul-Harb)

 Hijrat movement
 Moplah’s incidence
 Trial of Ali brothers
 Incident of “ Chaura Chauri”
 Abolition of Khalafat by Ata Turk

Role of Gandhi:

Jinnah and Khalafat movement:

Causes of Failure:

 End of non-cooperation movement

 Leadership crisis
 Abolition of Khalafat in Turkey by Kamal ata Turk
Results:

 Religion in politics
 Political consciousness
 Independent thinking
 Economic loses
 Loss of lives
 Real face of Hindu’s was exposed

Critical analysis:

Conclusion:

Cabinet Mission (1946)

Introduction:

 Background of simla failure

 Results of 1946 elections
 Members of cabinet

Objectives:

 To setup constitutional body

 To evolve methods of forming constitution
 To formulate executive council

Negotiation at Simla:

Formula of three tears:

A,B,C system

Union Govt. (Defence, Communication, Foreign Affairs and Currency)

A) Hindu majority
B) Muslim majority in West
C) Muslim majority in East
Long term:

Short term:

Reaction of Muslim League:

Reaction of Congress:

Critical analysis:
Conclusion:

Radcliff’s Award

Introduction:

 Background
 Boundry

Need for Award:

 Bangal
 Punjab
Formulation:

 Members for award 2,2 each from Muslim league and Congress for
Punjab as well as for Bangal.

Features of Partition:

 Division of Amratsar from Lahore

 Control of Gurdaspur (Kashmir issue)
 Division of Ferozpur and water head works
 Control of Calcutta

Reaction of Jinnah:

Critical analysis:

Conclusion:

Separate Electorates

Introduction:
  Urdu-Hindi controversy 1867
 Central Province local self Govt. Bill 1883
 Joint electorates 1892
 Simla Deputation 1906
 Minto Morley reforms 1909
 Lucknow pact 1916
 Montague Chelms reforms 1919
 Nehru report 1928
 Fourteen points 1929
 Communal award 1933
 Act of 1935
 Elections of 1937
 Elections of 1946

Critical analysis:

Conclusion:

Initial Problems after Independence

Introduction:

Two states on world map

Pak (East and West)

Problems:

Administrative:
  102 officers wished to go to Pakistan and 96 out of
them came to Pakistan so it was difficult to
administrate.
Political:

 Sad demise of Quaid

 Political leadership crisis
 Constitutional problems (independence act 1947)
Economic:

 Industries in India (specially cotton oriented)

 Pakistan was having 200 Million at the time of
independence.
Social:

 Refuges problem
 Rehabilitation process

Strategic sector:

 Arsenal factories in India

 ¼ of the arsenals was to be given but was not given
to Pakistan.

Unjust distribution of resources:

i) Financial resources
ii) Natural resources

Conclusion:

Factors behind the Creation of Pakistan

Introduction:

Religious factors:

 Hindu factors
 Urdu-Hindi controversy 1867
 Formation of Congress 1885
 Partition of Bangal 1905
 Reaction of Hindus on 1909 reforms
 Role of Hindus in Khalafat Movement 1919
 Nehru report 1928
 Atrocities of Congress ministries 1937
 Simla conference 1945

British factor:

 Aftermath of war of 1857

 Annulment of partition of Bangal
 Breach of promise regarding Ottoman empire
 Lord Wavell as Viceroy

International Scenario (after 1940):

 Poor economic condition of British after 2nd world war

 Less manpower Male:Female 1:5

Conclusion:

Objective Resolution (March 12, 1949)

Three categories of thinkers:

  Orthodox
 Liberal
 Minorities

Features of the Resolution:

1. Sovereignty of ALLAH
2. Constituent assembly will frame constitution.
3. Powers will be exercised by selective representatives.
4. Measures to be taken for Muslims to live their lives according to
Quran and Sunnah.
5. Minorities will be free to live according to their own creed.
6. To promote the principles of democracy, freedom, equality, social
justice and tolerance.
7. Federal structure of Government with autonomous units.
8. Social safeguard of Minorities and depressed classes.
9. Integrity of the territories of federation shall be safeguarded.

Critical analysis:

Conclusion:

Causes of Delay in Constitution Making

Introduction:

1. Sad demise of Jinnah.

2. Conflict between Islam and liberal parties.
3. Linguistic problems.
 4. Adequate representation.
5. Provisional Autonomy.
6. System of Govt. Presidential or Parliamentary.
7. Dissolution of constituent assembly 1954.
8. Behavior of Bureaucracy.
9. Western or Islamic democracy.
10. Electoral system and Minorities rights.

Conclusion:

Debacle of East Pakistan (1971)

Separation of East Pakistan
Fall of Dhaka

Introduction:

 Background (East wing and West wing)

Factors for Debacle:

A) Internal Factors:
i) Political factors
 Delay in constitution making.
 No general elections till 1970.
 Negligence of Muslim leadership
 No organized party
 Issue of Capital
 Six points of Mujeeb-ur-Rehman
ii) Economic factors
 Per capita income more in West.
 Taxation more in East.
 More investment in West.
 Development ¼ in East
 Inflation - double
iii) Strategic factors
  Who will defend East Pakistan?
iv) Linguistic factor
 Bangali-Urdu language
 Hindu Professor’s influence in Dhaka University.

v) Geographic factor 1600 km

vi) Socio-cultural factor
vii) Role of Army.
viii) Role of Politicians.
ix) Role of Bureaucracy.

B) External Factors:
i) Role of India
ii) America, Britain

Conclusion:

Six Points of Mujeeb-ur-Rehman (1966)

Introduction:

 Exploitation of East Pak etc

 He was arrested for two years.

Points of Mujeeb:

1. Character of Government
2. Division of Power
3. Two separate currencies
4. Fiscal Policy
5. Separate accounts
6. Paramilitary Forces
Critical analysis:

Conclusion:

Islamization in Pakistan

Introduction:

 Base on Islam, Islamic ideology

 Everyone thirsty to get power
 Socialism by Bhutto
 Zia regime

1. Social Islamization:

 Shariat court.
 Establishment of Majlas-e-Shoora.
 Hadood ordinance.
 Nazim-i-Salat.
 Aithram-i-Ramadan.
 Islamization of media.
 Islamic laws and woman.
 Definition of Muslim and Non-Muslim.
 Ombudsman.

2. Educational Islamization:
 Islamiat compulsory up to B.A and in C.S.S.

3. Economic Islamization:
 Zakat and usher system

Critical analysis:

Conclusion:
 Evolution of Muslim Society in the Sub-
Continent and its Down Fall

Introduction:

 Pre-Qasim era (before 711 A.D)

 Muhammad bin Qasim era (712-714 A.D)
 Ghaznavids period (998-1026)
 Ghauri period (1192-1206)
 Delhi Saltanat (1206)

1. Slave Dynesty (1211-1290)

2. Khilji Dynesty (1290-1320)
3. Tughlaq Dynesty (1320-1413)
4. Sayyid’s Dynesty (1451-1526)
5. Lodhi’s Dynesty (1414-1451)

 Mughal Period (1526-1857)

 British Period (1857-1947)

Causes of Decline of Muslims Power:

 Introduction
 History
 Zenith
 Alamgir
Causes of Downfall:

 Weak successors of Aurengzeb

 Weak central Government
 No rule of succession
 Unwanted expeditions
 Mismanagement/ lack of Resources
 Backwardness in Education
 Luxurious life
  Extravagant rulers
 Undue liberal policy of Akbar
 Weak military force
 Lack of Naval force
 Foreign invasion
 Internal conspiracies
 Loss of the spirit of Jihad
 Expansion of Empire
 Foreign intrigues

Conclusion:

Minto-Morley Reforms or Indian Council Act

(1909)

Introduction:

 Background
 History
Reasons for reforms:

 Dissatisfaction of Indians from 1892 Act

 Policies of Curzon
 Changing International Scenario
 Inflation
 Ill-treatment with Indians abroad
 Pacify the extremist
 Demand of Muslims for separate electorate
Features:

 Separate electorates
 Reservation of the seats
 Expansion of imperial legislative council (16 to 60)
 Expansion in provincial legislative council
Larger province 50

Small province 30

 Function/ Power of legislative council

 Increase in executive council members
 Appointment of Indians in executive council
 Restricted franchise
Criticism:

 Power rendered in British hands

 Undue importance to land lord, industrialists
 Undue burden on Govt. exchequer
 No right to woman voting
 Essence of real parliamentary system was missing

Hindu Reaction (did not accepted):

Muslim Reaction (accepted):

Conclusion:

Lucknow pact (1916)

Introduction:

 Background
 Efforts by Ajmal Khan

Circumstances behind the need of unity:

 Annulment of the partition of Bangal

 Bal khan wars
 Favoring of British to Russia
 Role of “Commrad” and “Al-Hilal”
 Reluctance of British to grant Ali-Garh College the Univeristy
status.

Joint Session:
Salient Features:

A) Provisions related to constitutional structure:

 Full financial administrative autonomy to all provinces

 4/5 members of each should be elected
 General adult franchise
 1/4 Govt. members should be elected by respective legislative
council
 Power of secretary
 Separation of judiciary and executive

B) Provisions related to communal issues:

 Complete self-Govt.
 Separate electorate and reservation of seats
 Resolution passed by ¾

Importance of the Pact:

 Collaboration political efforts started

 Importance for Hindus
 Importance for Muslims

Critical Analysis:

Conclusion:

Cripps Mission (1942)

Introduction:
  Background
 Japanese victory

Objectives:

 To muster support for British (of Indian)

 Discuss with leaders of various parities

Prospects:

 Full dominion states

 Constitution making body for India
 Non-accession clause
 Unanimous acceptance by Muslim league and Congress
 Treaty between Indian and British for smooth power transfer
 In toto acceptance or rejection

Critical analysis:

Conclusion:

Lahore Resolution (1940)

Introduction:

 Background
  1930 Allama Iqbal address
 1937 congress ministries

Resolution:

 M.Fazal-ul-Haq
 2nd Khaliq-uz-Zaman
 Demand for two states
 North West zone
 North Eastern zone

Congress Reaction:

 Hostile
 Ghandi’s remarks
 Abul Kalam’s remarks

Role of Hindu press:

Quaid’s answer:

Critical analysis:

Conclusion:

Congress Ministries (1937)

Introduction:

 1935 act elections

Political manifestation:

 Muslim league
 Congress

Election Results:

 9- Provinces, Govt. of Congress (direct 7 and 2 coalition)

 2- Unionist Krishak Paraje party
 Muslim league, not even a single province majority

Suppression policies of Congress:

 Vande-Matram
 Taranga
 Mass contact scheme
 Cow protection committee
 Wardha scheme
 Vidya mandar scheme
 Hindi official language
 Economic deterioration of Muslims
 Urdu interference in Administrative matters

Crisis in Europe and resignation of Congress:

Muslims Reaction:

Day of deliverance: (22-12-1939)

Critical analysis:

Conclusion:

Simla Conference (1945)

Introduction:

 Background
 Lord Wavel

Objectives:

 To solve representation problem in executive council

Conflict of Representation:

 5, 5 parity

Failure:

 No compromise

Role of Jinnah:

 Stubbornness
 Political acumen
 Far sightedness

Congress attitude:

 A.K.Azad’s reaction

Critical analysis:

Conclusion:

Simon Commission (1927)

Introduction:

 Chelmsford-Montague reforms 1919

 1927 constitution
 1928 came to India and then in 1929

Reaction:

 Congress
 Muslim League
 Shafi league
 Jinnah league
 Challenge of Birkenhead

Report:

 Federal system
 Diarchy should be abolished
 Selection of Ministers
 Extension in franchise
 Status of NWFP
 Separation of Sindh
 Formulation of federal assembly
 No change in central executive
 Consultative council

Reaction on Report:

 Congress
 Muslim League
 Liberal Party

Conclusion:

Quaid’s Fourteen Points (1929)

Introduction:
  Background
 Nehru report

Points:

1. Federal structure of Government

2. Uniform autonomy for all provinces
3. Representation of minorities
4. Muslim representation in centre
5. Separate electorate system
6. Territorial redistribution of provinces
7. Religious liberty
8. Passing of Bills
9. Separation of Sindh
10. Reforms in NWFP and Balochistan
11. Share of Muslims in services
12. 1/3 representation of Muslims in ministries
13. Change in constitution
14. Safeguard of Muslim culture, religion etc.

Critical analysis:

Conclusion:

Nehru Report (1928)

Introduction:

 Background

Report Proposals:

1. Status of Dominion
2. Indian federation
 3. Residuary powers
4. Separate Electorates
5. No reservation of seats
6. Fundamental rights
7. Separation of Sindh and status of NWFP
8. Status of Princely states
9. Supreme Court
10. Bicameral legislature
11. Hindi as official language
12. FPSC for India.

Reaction:

 Jinnah’s amendments
 1/3rd representation of Muslims
 Muslims seats in Punjab and Bengal
 Residual powers for Provinces

Criticism—A document of Slavery:

Geostrategic Importance of Pakistan

Introduction:

 Geostratergy
 Geopolitic
 Geoeconomy

 Geography of Pakistan

Resources of Pakistan:

 Natural resources:
  Agriculture
 Rivers
 Oil
 Gas
 Coal
 Minerals

 Strategic resources:

 Gawadar port
 Energy corridor
 Iran Pakistan India gas pipeline
 Trans-Afghanistan gas pipeline
 Qatar-Pakistan gas pipeline
 New great game (War on terror)

Measures to be taken by Pakistan:

 Best utilization of Geostratergy

 Consistency in policies
 National integration
 Democracy
 Curb the sectarianism
 Strengthening the Institutions
 Long term as well as Short term policies
 Management of resources (resource oriented investment)

Conclusion:

Education

Introduction:
  Definition of education

Importance of Education:

 Political
 Social
 Religious
 Economic

 Literacy rate of Pakistan and comparison with other countries

 Allocation of funds for education

Structure of Education:

 Primary
 Middle
 High/ Secondary
 Higher Secondary
 Graduate level
 University
 Higher Educations

Types of Educational Institutions:

 Public
 Private
 Madrassahs

Weaknesses of the Education System:

 Disparity in Education:
 Curriculum
 Facilities
 Pedagogical differences
 Status of the students
  Lack of Funds:
 Only 2.5 % of the GDP (2007)

 Poor quality education

 Poor quality of Faculty

 Lack of infrastructure
 Out dated teaching methodology
 Generalist outlook of the system
 Status of the teachers
 High drop-out rates
 No parent teacher coordination
 Political involvement
 Inconsistency in policies
 Feudal restrictions
 Weak governance (by DCO’s etc)
 Gender discrimination
 Lack of check and balance
 Lack of public-private partnership
 Ignorance towards technical education
 Opportunity cost

Remedial Measures:

 Mainstreaming of all the system

 Public-private partnership
 Uplift the social status of the teachers
 Improvement of the Infrastructure
 Proper check and balance on management
 Autonomy of the education department
 Permanent education commission (consistent policy)
 Minimize political influence in education
 Up gradation of curriculum
 Parent teacher relationship
 Regular teacher training program
 Direction oriented training
 Increasing the level of practical oriented and technical education
 Social awareness through seminars
 Collaboration between educational institutes and industry
 Job security
  More institutes to lessen then over crowding

Conclusion:

Foreign Policy of Pakistan

Introduction:

 Definition
 Output given by any country in international arena
 Set of political goals that seek outline for a country to design its interaction
with other countries of world for national security, political prosperity and
economic prosperity.

Types of Foreign Policies:

1. Aggressive foreign policy (Iran, Israel)

2. Self-protective (S.Arabia)
3. Status Quo (China)
4. Imperialistic (US)
5. Isolationist (US policy in 18th century, Afghanistan)
6. Aligned policy (European Union, SEATO, CENTO)
7. Non-aligned policy (Indonesia, Malaysia, India)

Determinants of Foreign Policy:

 Geographical location
 Ideology
 Economic position
 Defence
 Political leaders
 Size of the country

Determinants of Pakistan Foreign Policy:

Dr.Hmeed Ullah

1. Ideology
2. India factor
3. Geographic location
4. Economic and financial concerns

Principles of Pakistan Foreign Policy:

 Sovereign equality of all states

 Peaceful mutual coexistence
 Non-interference in matters of others
 Islamic ideology

Objectives of Pakistan Foreign Policy:

 National security
 Economic prosperity
 Good relations with Muslim countries, neighboring countries
and big powers
 Bilateral solution of all issues through negotiation
 Promotion of Good/ soft image of Pakistan
 Nuclear deterrence
 Welfare of expatriates
 To fight against terrorism

Basis for Foreign Policy:

 No permanent friendship but the permanent interest

 Changing interest
 End of colonialism
 US emerges as major power
 USSR emerges as a major power
 Phases of Pakistan Foreign Policy

Phase- 1 (1947-1953)

Major gains in this phase

 Participation in UNO
 Recognition of Peoples Republic of China
 Introduction of the formal diplomatic relations with other countries
particularly major powers with exception of USSR and Israel.

Loss of the Phase

 We should not have accepted the instructions of UNO regarding the

cessation of war. We should have prolonged the war.

Phase- 2 (1953-1962)

 Beginning of pro-Western policy

 SEATO / Manila pact (1954)
 Partners: Thailand, Philippines, New Zealand, US, UK, Pakistan, France
and Austria.
 CENTO / Baghdad pact (1955)
 Partners: Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, US and UK.
 Iraq had withdrawn from her membership in 1959 so name was changed
to CENTO (Central Treaty Organization)

 Interests of Western countries from this block:

 To gain the economic well being of the partners
 To counter the aggressive designs of communists regime (USSR)
 Swez canal crisis 1956 (estranged our relations with Arabian countries)
 Pak-US Military based defence pact
 Indus water Treaty (1960)
 Sino-India war 1962 and Pakistan’s role
Phase- 3 (1962-1971)

 Rethinking of the pro-west policy because Pakistan was thinking

that US will help Pakistan against India but it did not happened so.
So Pakistan made cordial relations with USSR.

 Pakistan withdrawn from SEATO and CENTO after war of 1971

 War of 1965
 Tashkand pact

Phase- 4 (1971-1979)

 Golden period of Pakistan foreign policy

 Withdrawal from SEATO and CENTO
 Simla conference (1972) between Pak-India
 Murree conference (1972) between Pak-India
 Pakistan got membership of “NAM”
 Secretary of state of US visited China (1969) by the efforts of
Pakistan and Pakistan cashed it during 1971-1979
 Multilateral diplomacy of Pakistan
 Summit meeting of OIC (1974)
 Beginning of nuclear program
 Pak-France civil nuclear technology agreement 1974, which was
canceled by the efforts of US
 Good relations with Arabian countries and many skilled workers
were sent to Middle East countries

Phase- 5 (1979-1990)

 Communist revolution in Afghanistan (1977)

 Soviet Union broken in 1989
 Siachin problem 1980
 Gains of Afghan war:
 Completion of Nuclear technology
 Improvement in infrastructure and stabilization of the economy
 Strengthening of Pakistan army
 Strategic interests of USSR were averted
Phase- 6 (1990-2001)

 Annulment of WARSA pact

 Independence of central Asian states
 Common wealth of independent states
 Unipolarity of the world
 United States as a sole super power
 New Great Game
 Civil war in Afghanistan
 Taliban 1994, Pakistan, UAE and Saudi Arabia accepted Taliban

 Pressber amendment
 Brown amendment
 CTBT (Pakistan condtionised this, if India will sign, we shall sign)

 Nuclear Tests of Pakistan and India (1998)

 Pak-India peace negotiation (1977-99)
 Lahore declaration

 Kargil war (1999)

Phase- 7 (2001-present)

 Post 9/11
 War on terror
 Confidence building measures with India
 IPI gas pipeline
 Trans-Afghanistan gas pipeline

Economy
Introduction:

Potentials:

1. Agriculture (Crops, Forestry, Livestock, Fisheries)

2. Water resources
3. Mineral Resources (Gypsum,salt )
4. Power Resources( oil, gas, coal, nuclear power energy solar energy)
5. Industry
6. Geography

Structure of Economy

Commodity producing sector:

Agriculture

 Crops
 Livestock
 Fishery
 Forestry
Industry

 Mining and quarrying

 Fuel extraction industry
 Manufacturing
 Construction
 Electricity , gas and water supply
Service sector

 Transport, storage and communication

 Wholesale and retail trade
 Finance and insurance
 Ownership of dwellings
 Public administration and defence
  Social, community and personal services

Challenges to Economy:

Inconsistent growth rates:

 Detail
 How to tackle
Investment

Relation with neighbor

Develop physical infrastructure

Proper allocation of funds

High fiscal deficit:

 Detail
High population growth rate

Excessive reliance on foreign debt

Low level of savings

High defence expenditure

High debt servicing

Low performance of public

Mismanagement of tax system

 How to tackle
Debt burden

Defence expenditure

Managed system of taxation

Encourage savings

High debt burden:

  Detail $ 38.86 Billion
 How to tackle
Inflation:

 Detail
 How to tackle
Trade deficit:

 Exports $ 18.36 Billion

 Imports $ 28 Billion
 Lack of diversification in exports

 How to tackle
Diversify

Secondary products

Poor Social Sector indicators:

 Education
 Health
 Population 34% below poverty line
 Environment
 Employment
 Increasing gap b/w poor & rich
Conclusion:

 Political stability
 Peaceful environment
 Good governance
 Institutional development

Remedial Measures of Economic Development:

 Expanding the resource base

  Tax on agriculture income
 Self-reliance
 Export led growth
 Industrialization
 Strategy of self management
 Development of agriculture sector
 Improvement of the infrastructure
 Constitutional cover
 Stable fiscal and monetary policy
 Promoting technology
 Administrative reforms
 Development of physical and human capital
 Slowing rate of population growth

Pakistan Affairs (History –II)

1. Evolution and downfall of Muslim society in sub-continent

2. Two-Nation theory
3. War of independence (1857)
4. Reformist/Education Movements
 Sheikh Mujaddid-i-Alf-i-Sani
 Syed Ahmad Shaheed
 Shah Walliullah
 Sir Syed Ahmad Khan
 Aligarh Movement
 Dar-ul-Uloom Deoband
 Nadwa-tul-Ulma
 Anjuman-e-Hamayet-i-Islam
 Sindh Madressah
  Islamia College Peshawar
All India National Congress (1985)

Simla deputation (1905)

Partition of Bengal (1905)

All India Muslim League (1906)

Morley-Minto Reforms (1909)

Lucknow Pact (1916)

Montague-Chelmsford Reforms (1919)

Khilafat Movemnt (1919)

Simon Commission (1927)

Nehru Report (1928)

Fourteen Points (1929)

Allahabad Address (1930)

Round Table Conferences and Communal Award (1931-33)

Government of India Act (1935)

Elections of 1937 and Congress Ministries

Pakistan Resolution (1940)

Cripps Mission (1942)

Simla Conference/Wavell Plan (1945)

Cabinet Mission (1946)

Interim Government (1946)

3rd June Plan (1947)
Radcliff Award

Initial Problem faced by Pakistan

Factors behind the creation of Pakistan

Role of Quaid-i-Azam as a first Governor General of Pakistan

Role of Liaqat Ali as a first Prime Minister of Pakistan

Objective resolution (1949)

Muhammad Ali Bogra Formula

One-Unit Formula

Accession of States especially Jammu and Kashmir

Debacle of East Pakistan

Islamization in Pakistan

Geopolitical importance of Pakistan

Economy of Pakistan

Education system in Pakistan

Agriculture of Pakistan

Industry in Pakistan

Foreign Policy of Pakistan

Constitutions of 1956; 1962; 1973

US- Pakistan Relations

 (By Falik Shair Rana KIPs Karachi)

Introduction

Importance

History

 Love-hate relationship
 Early objectives of foreign policy of pak
Current position

Front line state in war against terror

Milestones in Pak-USA Relations

1- Liaqat Ali Khan’s visit(1950)

2- Support to USA on Korean war(1951)
3- Alignment with Western Bloc
i. SEATO (1954)
ii. CenTO (1959)
4- Nixon’s Visit (1953)
5- Change of American Policy (Kennedy’s era)
6- Sino-India War 1962
“We need friends not masters”

7- Indo-Pak War 1965

8- Pak’s Intermediary Role
9- Fall of East Pakistan
10- Withdrawal from SEATO
11- Russian Military Intervention in Afganistan(1979)
12- F-16 issue
 13- Pressler Amendment
14- The Post Cold War world
15- Nuclear Tests 1998 and USA Economic Sanctions
16- Post Nine Eleven
17- War on Terror and Alqaeda Issue

Critical Analysis/Appraisal

1- Pak-USA-India Trio
2- Pak-USA-China trio
3- Pakistan’s loss in war against terrorism
4- Economic and Military Aid
5- Afgan situation and US-Concerns and Stance of Pakistan
6- Aerial Drone Attacks and Pak Concerns
7- IPI and US concerns
8- US-NATO Supply routes
9- ISI and US concerns
10- Nuclear Proliferation and Technology proliferation issues
11- USA, a friend when she need Pakistan

What Pakistan Should Do:

Trade and no aid

Investment

Fencing durand line

Conclusion

In the historical context of US-Pakistan relations, it is obvious that the mutual relations
between the two countries are based on convergence of common interests from time to time. When the
US required U2 surveillance flight facilities and an intelligence base against the Soviets (1959-1968),
backdoor diplomacy with the Chinese (1970-72), covert operations against the Red Army in Afghanistan
(1980-88) and recently the war against terrorism (2001 - ??), it has extended its best hand forward in
terms of military and economic aid as well as support for unelected military dictators. On the other
hand, Pakistan during this time has had modest success in growing its economy with economic aid from
the US and from the World Bank and IMF. Pakistan has performed better in achieving its goal of a
nuclear balance with India with its extensive missile and nuclear programs. However, time will tell how
long the present cooperation between the USA and Pakistan lasts and how much can the Pakistanis get
in reward for their cooperation with US war against Osama Bin Ladin and his Al-Qaida organization.

HISTORY OF WATER CRISIS IN PAKISTAN

The most dreaded water scarcity event has at last hit Pakistan. This is nothing unexpected. The
manner in which we have been used to handle our resources and national affairs, this catastrophic
occurrence was bound to take us over. Nature’s endowment of water blessings upon Pakistan has
always been envied by the world at large. At the time of independence 5000 cu/m of water was
available for each Pakistani, which has now reduced to 1000 cu/m because of uncontrolled population
growth.

Water is one resource that can not be generated it can only be preserved. Farsighted nations try
to conserve each every drop of water available to them because they are aware of the fact that if this
commodity is not prudently preserved and used, the human survival itself would be jeopardized and
future wars would be fought for its possession and control. The only manner to conserve this resource
known to man so far is to construct dams. Dams have been built for atleast 5000 years and, their
functions have evolved with the developing needs of the society. Most likely, the earliest dams were
built to store water for domestic and agriculture water supply. With the onset of industrial era,
hydropower became a major reason to built dams. Presently dams are built to serve many other
functions, such as, flood control, navigation, and recreation. According to an estimate the present
volume of all storage reservoirs with gross capacity of 5 cu/km and above amounts to some 4900 cu/km.
Out of this about 975 cu/km lie in North America while about 1770 cu/km are in Asia with majority in
China. China has some 83000 reservoirs built for various purposes, of which 330 are major in size. While
in Pakistan we have two major and about a dozen smaller reservoirs.

It has been said that all reservoirs are doomed to die. This is due to loss of their storage capacity
because of sedimentation. Assuming a hundred year average life of reservoirs (Lake Mead, USA-350
years , Tarbela, Pakistan-40 years), the world is losing about 41 cu/km of storage capacity per year.
Although we can not halt their termination yet, with our knowledge and effort we can delay this process
and elongate their life. So far few methods are available for prolonging the storage and life of reservoirs.
Among these the most frugal and resource preservation method is construction of series of dams on the
river so as to trap the sediment inflows in the upstream reservoirs and store comparatively sediment
free water in the lower reservoirs. It was estimated that Kalabagh reservoir life with Tarbela upstream
and a conjunctive operation could be extended to 100+ years. The other operational methods include
sediment sluicing alongwith water flows through the dam outlets and flushing of accumulated sediment
through reservoir regulation methods; though these method involve trade off between stored water
and reservoir capacity because stored water shall have to be passed through the dam unobstructed.
Another method available is desiltation through dredging. This method is so expensive that construction
of a new storage would cost about one twentieth of the cost of a similar reservoir.

Let us now recapitulate and make an assessment of ourselves to find out how and why we have
suddenly become a water scarcity country from a water affluent country. Soon after the creation of
Pakistan the country was faced with a number of serious problems including that of electricity and water
shortage. The control of three out of five Punjab rivers had gone to India, which stopped the water
supply to our canals feeding the eastern districts of the United Punjab and the Bhawalpur State.The
unilateral action of the Indian Government ruined our cultivated land which was soon rendered dry and
started becoming salinated. This affected the economy of the newly created country very badly and the
danger of famine thus loomed over the nation. Pakistan therefore, had to mobilize her own resources.
The search for alternate arrangements to sustain our mainly agrarian economy started. The construction
of small dams on our rivers like Warsak on Kabul and Rohtas on Jhelum were taken up with the aid of
Commonwealth countries. In addition, for gross utilization of the available water resources in the
country, the Govt. of Pakistan set up an organization under the title “Dams Investigation Circle”(DIC)
which was entrusted with the task of carrying out comprehensive survey for collecting the data and
preparing the projects which may help in resolving the problems of water and energy shortage. By the
end of May 1996, the DIC prepared a number of projects, which included Dams at Kalabagh on Indus
River and Rohtas (later called Mangla) on Jhelum river.

Investigations for construction of a huge multipurpose dam on Indus River at Kalabagh were
started in 1953 and its feasibility was submitted to the Govt. after getting approved by a group of expert
foreign Consultants. The Govt. approved this in 1959, the year WAPDA came in to being. In 1960 a treaty
between Pakistan and India was signed with World Bank mediation widely known as the “Indus Basin
Treaty”. According to this treaty, control of waters of Ravi, Bias and Sutlej was given to India with the
condition that the Indian Govt. will compensate for the loss of Pakistan and fully participate in the
construction of the replacement works with the help of the World Bank and the other aid giving
agencies. The replacement works included two large dams one on the Indus and the other on Jhelum,
five barrages and eight link canals and a siphon for carrying the waters of Chenab River across the Sutlej
River. The then Chief Martial Law Administrator and President Ayub Khan on behalf of the Pakistan
Govt. and the Indian Prime Minister Pandit Jwaharlal Nehru on behalf of India signed the treaty; Eugene
Blake signed the treaty on behalf of the World Bank. For the two large multipurpose dams on Indus and
Jehlum Pakistan proposed sites at Kalabagh and Rohtas (later called Mangla). Kalabagh site choice for
Pakistan was obvious since lot of investigation had been carried out at this site and a feasibility report
duly prepared and approved by the GOP after check and scrutiny by the foreign experts and consultants.

In the meanwhile a group of shortsighted bureaucrats gathered around Ayub Khan and
convinced him to switch over the construction site on Indus River from Kalabagh to Tarbela some 100
miles upstream. Unfortunately, Ayub Khan was neither a political leader nor had the wisdom to
understand the implications of the counsel given to him. In fact it was some sort of intrigue weaved very
carefully around Ayub Khan by some petty minded bureaucrats who had their own axe to grind rather
than serve the national interest. On Ayub Khan’s insistence the design of dam at Tarbela site was
prepared in great hurry, which was not based on detailed site investigations and thus had many inherent
defects. The team of experts warned the GOP that this project would be a complete failure and the
whole investment on this scheme will go down the drain. Incidentally no attention was paid to this
warning. Ayub Khan soon came to know that the World Bank would not pay a single penny for this badly
designed project of Tarbela Dam. Since, a large dam was part of the treaty, the GOP commenced work
on Tarbela Dam out of the funds received for Kalabagh Dam and later approached other countries, who
agreed to finance the project on terms and conditions favored to their interests. The reasons for
switching over to Tarbela Dam were never made known to the public which ofcource was not in a
position of raising any voice against the authority of the Martial Law Government. Kalabagh Dam was
therefore thrown into the dustbin and all the resources were diverted towards Tarbela Dam. However, a
lollypop was given to the nation stating that since it is intended to built a series of dams on the Indus
river, soon after completion of Tarbela all machinery and trained man-power would be diverted towards
construction of Kalabagh and later on completion of Kalabagh, these resources would be utilized for
construction of dam(s) upstream of Tarbela at suitable sites.

Tarbela’s hurried and faulty design brought Pakistan near total catastrophe in 1974. It was only
the Almighty that saved Pakistan from complete devastation. An accidental stuck-up of tunnel gates at
Tarbela forced the operating authorities dump the full reservoir and when the reservoir was completely
depleted it was found that large sink holes have developed on the immediate upstream of the dam. This
is a phenomenon akin to silent heart attack, which results into sudden cardiac arrest without warning.
With a newly full reservoir no one could visualize such a happening and one fine morning there would
have been no dam resulting into the whole country being under 4-6 feet of water.

The story of Kalabagh does not end here. During Bhutto era need for another storage seriously
cropped up and research and studies with the help of both local and foreign consultants were carried
out to develop the Kalabagh feasibility studies into full fledge project design. This design was deliberated
by top world experts on dam design, reservoir sedimentation and operation. Due care was given to
various implications involved and engineering solutions based on sophisticated techniques were chalked
out. During Zia regime the World Bank committed some U.S. $7.0 billion and kept this amount
earmarked for about three years. Then suddenly an intrigue based on dirty politics sealed the fate of the
Kalabagh Dam for all times to come. A powerful General who was Governor of NWFP in order to put
pressure on Zia for reasons best known to them, in connivance with some Consultants started marking
high flood level marks on the houses, graveyards, mosques and other permanent structures, and set a
wave of alarm among the public of fear of their drowning. This disturbance among the people was
played up so much that a strong resistance started developing among the inhabitants of NWFP against
the Dam. Most unfortunately, these high flood level marks were neither based on facts nor had any
basis. The dam designers in particular and the engineering community in general based on actual studies
proved and showed that even in the worst scenario when both Tarbela and Kalabagh are full and an
unprecedented historic flash flood occurs, the high flood level would not reach to a stage so as to cause
any damage to the populace. With regard to the fear of waterlogging in the Nowshera valley adequate
provision was made for tubewell installations as part of the Kalabagh project. But, the shot had been
fired and before the NWFP people fears could be quelled, the Sindh Province came out with an entirely
opposite objection to the Kalabagh Dam building i.e. drought and water scarcity. The controversy has
reached to an extent that today almost every one in Pakistan has formed opinion either for or against
the Kalabagh Dam.

If we look deep into the controversy we would clearly see the mistrust and distrust between the
Provinces being an outcome of the suppression caused by autocratic rules and absence of democratic
forces needed to freely vent and mitigate the negative forces.

Coming back to the water scarcity problem, we find that absence of additional storages have
forced us to burden Tarbela most adversely by inflicting continued low level drawdowns which caused
racing of large sediment deposits within the reservoir towards the Dam much before than expected. To
retard the movement of sediment towards the Dam it was required to keep the minimum pool level
higher so as to keep the delta away from the Dam and maintain the reservoir’s live storage as much as
possible. For example, Tarbela minimum pool level initially was fixed at El. 1300 and later with the
increase in sediment inflows was to be gradually raised to El. 1400 and if need arises even higher. But,
successive dry years forced us to operate the reservoir at lower levels and as a result the toe of the delta
has almost reached upto to mouth of the intakes. As such, this year we are forced to stop water releases
from the reservoir at El. 1369 and, if we venture to lower it further all silt, sand and debris would pass
through the power intakes and damage the turbines to an extent that the power house shall have to be
closed for repairs involving heavy amount of foreign exchange.

The Kalabagh controversy started some 15 years back and during this period we did nothing but to
concentrate on rhetoric for or against Kalabagh. Although it was known that consensus on construction
of a new reservoir above or below Kalabagh will take some time and when it somehow gets finalized
then preparation of its feasibility, design and then construction all would involve not less than 15 years.
One preference for Kalabagh is that its designs are prepared and even the tender documents are ready.

It is a well-known fact that in the world most lucrative projects were conceived but resisted and
washed out by envoirmentalists. That never was construed as end of the day. Planners always have
alternate plans ready, which unfortunately we miserably lack. Prudence demanded that during the last
15 years we should have worked on sites other than Kalabagh and reached a level from where the actual
construction commences. Not only that, we should have educated ourselves through research and study
of Tarbela reservoir sedimentation processes and upgraded our knowledge of the complexity of
reservoir sedimentation.

The engineering interest in reservoir sedimentation concerns three physical aspects; (i) overall
volume of trapped sediment, (ii) distribution of deposit volume, and (iii) distribution of sediment particle
size within the reservoir. The loss of storage capacity due to sediment deposits reduces the efficacy of a
reservoir to regulate the flow and to provide a flood control. The distribution of volume of deposit
determines the relative impact of trapped sediment on the usable storage, and the distribution of
particle size effects the density of deposits as well as the potential damage caused by the ingress of
sediment into the power inlets.

A number of approaches have been developed in the world to study these phenomenon. These
include empirical methods; mathematical modeling and physical modeling but all these approaches have
their limitations and need research and study to evaluate their effectiveness. Tarbela reservoir is one
such place where ideal conditions exist to enhance our knowledge in area of sedimentation engineering.

WAPDA was established to develop the water and power resources of the country. It was
structured as a multi-disciplinary organization with wide autonomy of working. It was at its Zenith when
it most successfully and in record time completed world’s gigantic Indus Basin Project. Although, after
the Indus Basin Project no new large construction project with the exception of SCARP was handled by
WAPDA yet, it continued its effective and productive role of water development through research and
studies. Between 1974 to1987 under its aegis world’s largest ever undertaken prototype research in the
mechanics of alluvial channels using the canals and rivers of Pakistan was undertaken with the
collaborative sponsorship and funding from the National Science Foundation of USA. The
accomplishments under this research endeavor provided worldwide designers of the alluvial channels
new approaches based on phenomenon hither to unknown and unobserved. Later, the WAPDA
organization entrusted with this research project was elevated into an international sedimentation
research institute in order to use its knowledge and expertise to research and study the complex
processes of sedimentation, the biggest menace and threat to the water resources whether these are
flowing or conserved.

Then a gradual apathy, unconcern and indifference on WAPDA’s part towards its basic objective
of development of water and power resources tookover; most probably due to the attitude of its higher-
ups who considered WAPDA’s role solely of a revenue collection agency. Unfortunately, those under the
top brass were also insensitive towards the sophisticated expertise developed within the organization
and therefore did not have the capability of properly guiding or counseling the decision-makers. The net
result was that organizations that were built in decades were destroyed and reduced to shambles in
months. The star international sedimentation research institute is now dumped into few katcha garages
in a remote corner of the city. All its sophisticated equipment has either been reduced to junk or
pilfered and all the expertise gained totally lost. This world renowned research institute is now headed
by a Sr. Engr. who has been promoted from a mechanical overseer. Similarly, another organization,
which was developed from Dams Investigation Circle (mentioned earlier), is under so much fear and
harassment that its employees have practically lost all nerve. This organization is also being headed by a
mechanical engineer who does not know even basics of dam engineering.

Various periodic inspections of Tarbela Dam by experts recommended different solutions to

tackle the sedimentation problems of the reservoir. For testing and researching these solutions it was
proposed that immediately a physical model studies laboratory be established at Tarbela site. This
laboratory would not only undertake a comprehensive research and study to find solutions to Tarbela
problems but also cater for future needs of other projects on the Indus River and its tributaries. In this
regard collaborative efforts were made with a prestigious Chinese sedimentation research institute. But,
with the departure of those who were instrumental in developing of this collaborative activity with the
Chinese, every thing was thrown to airs. The Chinese are constructing a very large dam namely “Three
Gorges Project”. This project is not only being researched in a physical-modeling laboratory at the site
but at every major engineering university in the country. What a pity? We who claim to have world’s
most integrated water resource and conveyance system do not have even one laboratory in the country
capable of studying dams, reservoirs or sedimentation problems. On the other hand, as announced by
the Chief Executive, we are planning to construct a number of reservoirs and, unfortunately, do not
posses the basic infrastructure to study the complexities involved. The one laboratory at Nandipure
under the Punjab Irrigation Department is not even sufficient to handle Punjab Irrigation’s own
problems and the efficacy and efficiency of this laboratory portrays the same story of apathy.

WAPDA has now come up with its dream of “vision 2025”. With the present level of in-house
knowledge and expertise can it even initiate such a utopic program? We talk of constructing projects like
Bhasha Dam. Unfortunately, we think of Bhasha probably similar to a plaza. This project is going to be
far more problematic than Tarbela (Refer Panel of Experts Report-1988). No local firm (s) is capable of
undertaking its investigations without active collaboration of foreign experts/specialists. Had we
continued the research and study efforts started way back within WAPDA, we by now would have
achieved a level of knowledge whereby our dependency on foreign expertise had been minimal. But, we
wasted all opportunities and chances. No we can do nothing but hold Namaz- e- Istasqa.

SOURCES OF WATER

God has blessed Pakistan with abandoned water resources, with water flowing down the
Himalayas and Karakorum heights, from the world’s largest glaciers, a free and unique
bounty of nature for this land of alluvial plains. As a result of this natural resource, today we
have the world’s marvelous and the largest irrigation system that irrigates over 16 million
hectors of land, out of 34 million hectors of cultivable land available. Basically we have two
major sources of water i.e. surface water & ground water.

SURFACE WATER

In surface water we have three hydrologic units. First one is Indus Basin River.

(a) Indus Basin River

At the time of independence, we had about 67 maf water available for diversion; this
amount increased to about 85 maf by 1960. In 1960 Pakistan signed a water treaty “Indus
water treaty” with India, which brought major changes in the sources of water for Pakistan.
In that treaty the right of three eastern rivers i.e. Beas, Sutlej and Ravi was given to India.
Now the Indus river basin constitutes of the mountain basins Indus plain, Karachi plains and
desert areas of Sindh. Its principle rivers and tributaries are Indus, Shyok, Gilgit, Astor,
Siran, Kabul joined by Jhelum, Chenab and Sutlej. It covers an area of 516,600 sq. km. its
source of water are snowing, glacier melting and rainfalls. From this annually 141.67 maf of
water is being received.

(b) Closed basin Kharan desert

It consists of areas of mountain basins of Quetta and basins of tributaries draining in to

Kharan desert. its main rivers are Pishin Lora, Baddo Rakhshan, Mashkhel and many other
streams. It covers an area of 120,100 sq. km. its main sources of water are rainfall and
nominal snow. Here we are getting approximately 4.5 maf of water.

(c) Makran coastal basin

Makran coastal basin constitutes of streams of Malir, Hub, Porali, Kud, Hingol, Nai, Mashhai,
Dasht, Nihing and Kech. It covers an area of 122,400 sq. km and its main source of water is
rainfall. From this basin 0.78 maf of water.

Now coming towards groundwater sources.

Ground water:-

The Indus plains constitute about 34 million hectors (over 85 million acres) of cultivable
land. The recharge or absorption to the ground is around 72 maf, out of which about 48 maf
is in the command of Indus basin irrigation system (ibis). Ground water is also found in
some rain-fed (barani) lands and inter-mountain valleys at depths varying from 100 to 200
feet.

After pointing out the main sources of water, let’s have a glance of the water available to us
through them. We receive an average of 141.67 maf of water from western rivers. Eastern
rivers contribute 8.47 maf of water. About 4 maf of water is received from outside Indus
plains. Water available above rim stations is 5.28 maf whereas rainfalls below rim also
contribute about 14 maf of water. Also about 66.89 maf ground water is available to us. In
other words a total of 240.22 maf of water is available to us from the present sources.

For controlling the water resources and for its effective utilization lets have a glance at the
present storages and its capacities.

Water reservoirs / capacities:-

Pakistan is having three basic reservoirs, namely mangla dam reservoir, Terbela dam
reservoir and Chashma barrage reservoir. more small reservoirs like Warsak, Baran dam
hub, Khanpur, Tanda, Rawal, Simly, Bakht khan Hamal lake, Mancher lake, Kinjhar lake and
Chotiari lake Arealso included as small storage. The storage capacity of these reservoirs is
as shown on the view foil.

I shall be discussing only the major reservoirs only.

(a) Terbela dam reservoir

World’s largest earth and rock filled dam was built at Terbela on river Indus in 1976 with a
gross capacity of 11.62 maf and a live storage capacity of 9.68 maf. With the passage of
time, due to silting, 24.6% of the storage has been lost and now it has a live storage of
7.295 maf.

(b) Mangla dam reservoir

Mangla reservoir is the second major storage of Pakistan. It was built in 1967 on river
Jhelum with a gross capacity of 5.882 maf and live storage of 5.41 maf. Again due to
siltation it has lost 13.2% of its storage and presently can store 4.636 maf of water.

(c) Chashma barrage reservoir

Chashma barrage is situated on river Indus and was built in 1972 with a gross storage of
0.870 maf and live storage of 0.717 maf. It has also reduced its storage capacity by 39.3%
and is left with a storage capacity of 0.435 maf.

UTILIZATION OF WATER

In Pakistan we utilize the water available to us for different purposes. The basic utilization is
for irrigation and then used for power generation, drinking and also provided to some
Industries.

(a) Irrigation

Out of 240.22 maf, 172.21 maf water is utilized for irrigation purposes as shown on the
view foil. In this the canal diversions is 105.23 maf; system loses are 144-40; rainwater is
6.0 maf; ground water is 41.30 and utility above rims is 5.28 maf.

(b) Power generation

Water released by the hydropower plants returns to the river system. The reservoirs are
operated on priority bases only for irrigation. Recent increase in thermal generation has
reduced the potential conflicts between water releases from reservoirs for hydropower
generation and irrigation. Now most of the annual storage is utilized for irrigation and not
for hydropower, but conflicts do arise at times.

(c) Drinking

Most of the rural and urban water is supplied from ground water through tube wells and
hand pumps except few cities like Karachi and Islamabad/Pindi. Total urban and rural
(domestic and commercial) requirements estimated is 10-15% of the surface water, out of
which 80% return to the system, however with degraded quality. Net consumption is
normally about 2% of the total water available.

(d) Industry

Water is also utilized in Industries basically for cooling purposes and also in manufacturing
processes. This utility is less than 1%.

Shortage of water
As we all know that now a days our country is facing severe shortage of water. There are
two main reasons, one natural due to prolong drought---which is beyond the control of a
man, and the other due to the gross negligence in the development and mis-management
of water resources. The average annual inflow of the Indus and its tributaries is i41.67 maf,
of which 97% is used in agriculture and the remaining 3% for domestic and Industrial
purposes. Out of 141.67 maf, around 106 maf is annually diverted in to one of the largest
but in-efficient irrigation system. The remaining 36 maf goes into the sea unused – a total
loss --. Out of 106 maf, diverted into an extensive irrigation net work, more than 50% is
lost during the changeling and the field application before it reaches the crop root zone.

In the years when the rainfall is normal or above, the country generally does not face any
water shortage, where as in below average rainfall period it does. This has happened just
few weeks earlier. i was sitting with secretary irsa, in connection of my vision, and he said
that they are reducing the quota of punjab and sind by 5% because of no rains and that the
level of mangla has gone below dead level. After three days i was again with him and he
said that now we are increasing the quota of all the provinces, because we are in happy
situation due to present heavy rains and snowfalls. The planners, it is assumed, are
responsible to foresee and carry out effective water resources development and
management planning to meet the future challenges. However, sadly this is not practiced
which ultimately lands the state into such uncalled situations.

Impact on economy / society

As I said earlier that agriculture is our backbone and the water flowing in the channels to
the crops is its blood line—and if there is no or less water then we should be prepared for
facing problems economically as well as socially. According to the estimates of federal
government, the agriculture sector would suffer a loss of about Rs. 90 billion because of
drought. Since agriculture has remained a major source of shouldering the already crippled
economy, it has a vital role to play particularly in terms of food security and employment of
the ever-burgeoning population of the country. It contributes around 35 % to the gnp and
employs about 44% of labor force. It also contributes 65% of our export earning. The
adverse effects of water shortage on agriculture would have a spiraling effect on the
prevailing level of poverty.

(a) Less water means less agricultural yields and to fulfill the food requirements of the
nation, we will be dependent on other countries.

(b) Raising livestock is the main source of livelihood of rural areas. it is also an important
economic activity, which contributes 9.7% of gdp, will be affected due to shortage of water.

(c) Orchards of pakistan bring home a healthy amount of foreign exchange, which can be
affected due water shortage.

(d) Due to less production of main crops, which are wheat, cotton, sugar cane and rice, the
Industries related to them will suffer adversely.

(e) Then due to drought and more dependency on ground water for irrigation, the water
table will go down, and this will cause water constrains to the population.

(f) Less agricultural outputs will compel people to head towards urban areas for jobs, which
will increase the unemployment further.
(g) The distribution of water is controlled from the center by irsa (Indus river system
authority) as per 1991 agreement between the provinces. Now the shortage of water will
cause disputes between the provinces, which may cause harm to the national integrity.

Analysis

Pakistan is one of the poorest countries of the world, where as on the other hand it is one of
the richest in its population increasing capabilities. Our population has surpassed the 140
million mark by now and is still increasing at an alarming rate of about 3%, which definitely
needs to be checked. On the other hand the growth rate of agriculture is decreasing due to
water shortages. To keep up the pace of agricultural growth comparable to population
growth, we must bring additional lands under cultivation. in order to achieve the required
growth targets in agriculture, we needed an estimated amount of 149 maf in 2000 and will
need 215 maf year 2013 and about 277 maf by year 2025. this scenario warns that
pakistan has already has slided from a water happy country to a water scarce country in
1994 and already shortage of over 40 maf persists, which may increase to a shortage of
108 maf and 151 maf by years 2013 and 2025 respectively. This water shortage has been
threatening the federal structure of the country. Our reluctance to treat water as an
economic good and inadequate recognition of the environmental concerns associated with
current practices have led us towards this catastrophic situation. Further more its remedy is
an urgent one, otherwise it could trigger water riots and finally lead to social, if not political,
catastrophe. Since no additional water is available, it is the time to recognize our
responsibilities and start taking steps in the right direction.

So for overcoming the water crises following steps are recommended

Recommendations

The national water strategy must be based upon two essential elements covering

 Water developments
 Water management

The water development strategy is largely based upon construction of new storage
reservoirs where as the water management strategy will help in reducing the present losses.

Water development

In this construction of following dams should start immediately:-

(a) Chasha dam

It would be located 200 miles upstream of terbela on river Indus. its gross storage capacity
would be 7.3 maf and live storage 5.7 maf. Its power generation capacity would be 3360
mw.

(b) Kalabagh dam

Kalabagh dam site is located 132 miles down stream of Terbela. Its gross storage would be
6.1 maf. It would have a power generation of 3600 mw. Here I shall further suggest that
the construction of Kalabagh be under taken only, once all the provinces are convinced and
willing to cooperate.
(c) Thal reservoir

It would be located on the right bank of Chashma – Jhelum link canal, along the western
bank of river Jhelum. Its reservoir would have gross capacity of 2.3 maf.

(d) Raised Mangla dam

in this the present Mangla dam would be further raised by 40 ft and thus increasing its
gross capacity to 9.5 maf. In addition, its power generation capacity would be increased by
15%.

(e) Mirani dam

The dam is located on Dasht River about 48 km of Turbat town in Mekran division. Its main
objective is to provide water for irrigation. Its gross storage is 0.30 maf.

(f) Gomalzam dam

It is located at Khajori Kach on Gomal River in South Waziristan, about 75 miles from Dera
Ismail Khan. Its main objective will be to irrigate 132000 acres of land, power generation of
17.4 mw and flood control.

From these projects we shall be able to store additional 20maf of water.

Water management

Managing water resources is the need of time, and we in Pakistan already short of water,
must chalk out a strategy. In this endeavor can be made to save around 1.3 maf of water
from existing losses. following is recommended in this regard:-

 Presently the losses occur due to seepage, infiltration and leakages etc. seepage
results in water logging and these losses can be reduced or eliminated by lining the
canals.
 In addition, people should be educated to conserve water by cooperation.
 Further more government should make laws on water conservation, like many
western countries.
 The second largest contribution to the total water available comes from the
groundwater sources. This source has been exploited and very well used by public
and private tube wells. It can still provide over nine maf of water. This source can be
exploited and judiciously used for irrigation purposes. How ever in some areas
ground water is rapidly depleting due to excessive pumpage, authorities should take
control in such areas to save them from depleting.
 Efforts be made to convert the present rotation based irrigation system to demand
oriented system.
 The modern irrigation techniques, that is trickling, sprinkling etc, which have a
potential to improve water distribution and its utilization.
 Authorities should take appropriate steps to curb the illegal extraction of water and
ensure its equitable distribution.
 Presently irrigation department has failed to stop the illegal theft and extraction;
thus irrigation distribution system needs to be privatized through water user
associations.
  In addition, water, now-a-days is supplied to farmers at a very negligible cost and
that is why they do not treat water as a precious resource; therefore there is a need
to increase the water prices to make irrigators realize the importance of this asset.
 Farmer’s organizations, water user association, and private sector be involved in
construction, operation, and maintenance of the irrigation system. Such associations
are conceived as a mechanism for creating a cooperative frame work for
improvement of watercourses.

Conclusion

The problems faced by the water sector in the country are many, acute and
serious and it is also known that we can generate about 83 maf of more water. Therefore,
building of more reservoirs and an effective management strategy are the needs of time.
Also implementation of the recommendations will enable the country to meet the
challenges, and achieve the objectives of integrated, efficient, environmentally and
financially sustainable development and management of limited water resources. At the
same time it will enable us to utilize every drop of our water for our bright future.

NOTE:
This Topic is useful for PAK Affairs, Current Affairs and For Essay as well

FALIK SHAIR RANA KIPS karachi