Professional Documents
Culture Documents
en Energías Renovables y
Sostenibilidad Energética
Máster Universitario ECONOMÍA
en Energías Renovables y DE LA
Sostenibilidad Energética ENERGÍA
Bloque II
Retscreen
Uso final
Optimizar Maximizar Minimizar
el suministro la eficiencia el uso
Pasos
MODELO DE EFICIENCIA ENERGÉTICA DE RETSCREEN®
RETScreen Energy Model - Energy efficiency measures project
Fuels & schedules Show data
Fuel Fuel type 1 Fuel type 2 Fuel type 3 Fuel type 4 Fuel type 5 Fuel type 6
Fuel type Electricity Natural gas - m³
• Pasos:
Temperature - unoccupied +/-°C 3.0
Occupied Occupied Occupied Occupied Occupied
Occupancy rate - daily h/d h/d h/d h/d h/d h/d
Monday 24 18.0
Tuesday 24 18.0
Wednesday 24 18.0
Thursday 24 18.0
Friday 24 18.0
Saturday 24 18.0
Sunday 24 18.0
– Características de las
Incremental Fuel cost Incremental Include
Show: Heating Cooling Electricity initial costs savings O&M savings Simple payback measure?
Fuel saved GJ GJ GJ $ $ $ yr
Heating system
instalaciones(energía + costos)
Boiler 0 - - 0 0 0 -
Cooling system
Air-conditioning - 0 - 0 0 0 -
Building envelope
Appartment building 2,686 0 - 60,000 28,659 0 2.1
Ventilation
Lights
Electrical equipment
Hot water
– Resumen (energía)
Other
Total 2,686 0 0 60,000 28,659 0 2.09
– Análisis de emisión
Natural gas m³ $ 0.400 160,194.2 $ 64,078 88,546.3 $ 35,419 71,647.8 $ 28,659
Total $ 64,078 $ 35,419 $ 28,659
– Análisis financiero
Energy - base case 4,204 0 0 4,204
Energy - proposed case 2,324 0 0 2,324
Energy saved 1,880 0 0 1,880
Energy saved - % 44.7% 44.7%
Benchmark
Energy unit kWh
Reference unit m² 7,500
User-defined m² 2,000
• Sistema de calefacción
• Sistema de refrigeración
• Envoltorio de la construcción
• Ventilación
• Luces
• Equipamiento eléctrico
• Agua caliente
• Bombas
• Ventiladores
• Motores
CARACTERÍSTICAS DE LAS INSTALACIONES
• Resumen de combustible
• Verificación del proyecto
• Valores de Referencia
EMISIÓN & ANÁLISIS FINANCIERO
Método 1 Método 2
RETScreen Energy Model - Energy efficiency measures project
RETScreen Energy Model - User-defined
Fuels & schedules Show data
User-defined
User-defined Energy Fuel Fuel type 1 Fuel type 2 Fuel type 3 Fuel type 4 Fuel type 5 Fuel type 6
Fuel type Electricity Natural gas - m³
Green power Fuel consumption - unit MWh m³ #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Other Fuel rate - unit $/kWh $/m³ #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Fuel rate 0.100 0.400
RETScreen Cost Analysis - Energy efficiency measures project
Base case Proposed case
Schedule Unit Settings Schedule 1 Schedule 2 Schedule 3 Schedule 4 Schedule 5 Schedule 6
Technology Grid electricity Wind turbine Description Method 1 24/7 Notes/Range Second currency
Power capacity kW 2,000 Method 2 Occupied OccupiedSecond currency
Occupied Occupied
Notes/Range Occupied None
Temperature - space heating °C 23.0 21.0 Cost allocation
Capacity factor % 30% Temperature - space cooling °C 23.0 24.0
Electricity exported to grid MWh 5,256 Initial costs (credits) Unoccupied UnoccupiedUnit Unoccupied
Quantity Unoccupied
Unit cost UnoccupiedAmount Relative costs
Temperature - unoccupied +/-°C 3.0
Incremental initial costs $/kW 2,000 Feasibility study
Occupied Occupied cost Occupied Occupied Occupied
Feasibility study $ -
O&M (savings) costs $/kWh 0.010 Occupancy rate - daily h/d h/d RETScreen
h/d Emission
h/d Reduction h/d
Analysis - Energy
h/d efficiency measures project
Sub-total: $ - 0.0%
Electricity export rate $/kWh 0.150 Monday 24 18.0
Development Emission Analysis
Tuesday 24 18.0
Development cost $ -
Wednesday 24 18.0
Thursday Sub-total: 24 18.0 $ - 0.0%
Engineering
Method 1 Global warming potential of GHG
Friday 24 18.0
Emission Analysis Saturday Engineering 24 18.0 Method 2
cost $ - 21 tonnes CO2 = 1 tonne CH4 (IPCC 1996)
Sunday Sub-total: 24 18.0 Method 3 $ - 0.0% 310 tonnes CO2 = 1 tonne N2O (IPCC 1996)
Occupancy rate - annual h/yr Energy efficiency measures
8,760 6,570 0 0 0 0
GHG emission % Incremental initial
100% costs 75% 0% 0% 0%
RETScreen Financial Analysis - Energy efficiency measures project
0%$ 60,000 100.0%
factor T&D GHG emission Balance of system & miscellaneous
Base case system GHG summary (Baseline)
Financial parameters Project costs and savings/income summary Yearly cash flows
Heating/cooling changeover temperature °C 16.0Spare parts % General $ - Initial costs Year Pre-tax After-tax Cumulative
Base case electricity system (Baseline) (excl. T&D) losses factor
Length of heating season d 242Transportation project Fuel cost escalation $ rate - % 2.0% Feasibility study 0.0% $ 0 # $ $ $
Country - region Fuel type tCO2/MWh % tCO2/MWh Length of cooling season d 123Training & commissioning p-d Inflation rate CO2 $
emission
-
CH4 emission
% N2O2.0%
emissionDevelopment Fuel0.0% $GHG emission 0 0 -60,000 -60,000 -60,000
Canada All types 0.211 5.0% 0.222 User-defined cost Fuel mix rate $ factor
Discount - factor% factor Engineering
12.0% consumption
0.0% $ factor 0GHG1emission 29,232 29,232 -30,768
Contingencies Fuel type
% $ % 60,000 $ kg/GJ
Project life
- kg/GJ yr kg/GJ
40 Power system MWh 0.0% $ tCO2/MWh 0 2tCO2 29,817 29,817 -951
Facility characteristics Show dataInterest during construction Natural gas Heating system 0.0% $ 0 3 299 30,413 30,413 29,463
$ 100.0% 60,000 $ - 1,668 0.179
Electricity exported to grid MWh 5,256 T&D losses 8.0% Total Finance
100.0% Cooling system 0.0%
1,668 $ 0.179 0 4 299 31,022 31,022 60,484
Sub-total: Enter number of months $ - 0.0%
Incremental Fuel cost Incremental Incentives and grants
Include $ User-defined 0.0% $ 0 5 31,642 31,642 92,126
Total initial costs $ 60,000 100.0%
Show: Heating Cooling Electricity initial costs savings O&M savings Simple payback Debt ratio measure? % Energy efficiency measures 100.0% $ 60,000 6 32,275 32,275 124,401
GHG emission Fuel saved GJ GJ GJ
Annual costs (credits)
$ $
Proposed case
$
Unit system GHG
yr Debt
summary (Energy
Quantity Unit efficiency measures
Amount project)
$ 0 Balance of system & misc. 0.0% $ 0 7 32,920 32,920 157,321
Heating system Equitycost $ 60,000 Total initial costs 100.0% $ 60,000 8 33,579 33,579 190,900
Base case tCO2 1,167 Boiler 0
O&M
- - 0 0 0 - Debt interest rate % 9 34,250 34,250 225,150
O&M (savings) costs project Debt term CO2$ emission - CH4 emission yr N2O emissionIncentives and grants Fuel $GHG emission 0 10 34,935 34,935 260,086
Proposed case tCO2 93 Cooling system
Parts & labour project Debt
Fuel payments $ factor
mix - $/yr
factor 0
factor consumption factor GHG 11 emission 35,634 35,634 295,720
Gross annual GHG emission reduction tCO2 1,074 Air-conditioning - 0 - 0 0 0 -
Building envelope
User-defined cost
Fuel type % $ kg/GJ - kg/GJ kg/GJ Annual costs and debt paymentsMWh tCO2/MWh 12tCO2 36,347 36,347 332,066
Contingencies O&M $ 0 13 37,074 37,074 369,140
GHG credits transaction fee % 0.0% Appartment building 2,686 0 - 60,000 Natural %
28,659 gas 0
$ 100.0%
2.1
- $ - 922 0.179 165
Sub-total: Income tax analysis $ - Fuel cost - proposed case $ 35,419 14 37,815 37,815 406,955
Net annual GHG emission reduction tCO2 1,074 is equivalent to 218 Cars & light trucks not used Ventilation Total 100.0% 922 0.179 165
Effective income tax rate % Debt payments - 0 yrs $ 0 15 38,571 38,571 445,527
Fuel cost - proposed case
Lights Loss carryforward? T&D losses
No Total annual costs $ Total
35,419 16 165 39,343 39,343 484,869
Natural gas m³ 88,546 $ 0.400 $ 35,419
Electrical equipment Depreciation method Declining balance 17 40,130 40,130 524,999
GHG reduction income Sub-total: GHG emission reduction summary $ 35,419
Hot water Half-year rule - year 1 yes/no Yes Periodic costs (credits) 18 40,932 40,932 565,931
Depreciation tax basis % $ 0 19 41,751 41,751 607,682
GHG reduction credit rate $/tCO2 0.00 Other Annual savings Unit Quantity Unit cost rate Amount
Depreciation % Gross annual $ 0 Net20annual 42,586 42,586 650,268
Total 2,686 0
Fuel 0
cost - base case 60,000 28,659 0 2.09 Depreciation period yr 15 End of project life - cost $ 0
Years of Base case Proposed case GHG emission GHG credits 21
GHG emission 43,438 43,438 693,706
Natural gas m³ 160,194 $ Tax holiday 0.400 $
available? 64,078 yes/no No 22 44,306 44,306 738,012
occurrence GHG emission GHG emission reduction transaction fee reduction
Sub-total: Tax holiday duration $ 64,078 yr Annual savings and income 23 45,193 45,193 783,205
Financial Analysis Summary Show data Energy efficiency measures yr tCO2 tCO2 Fuel cost - base case tCO2 $ % 64,078 24tCO2 46,096 46,096 829,301
project 1 to -1income
Annual 299 165 Electricity export income 134 $ 0 25134 47,018 47,018 876,320
Fuel Periodic costs (credits) Base case Unit case
Proposed Year Unit
Fuel cost
cost savings Amount
Electricity export income GHG reduction income - 0 yrs $ 0 26 47,959 47,959 924,279
Fuel User-defined cost $ -
Financial parameters Electricity exported to grid
$ -
MWh 0 Customer premium income (rebate) $ 0 27 48,918 48,918 973,196
consumption - Fuel Fuel Fuel cost
Net annual GHG emission reduction Electricity export $rate 134 $/MWh
tCO2 0.00
is equivalent Other
to income27.2 (cost) - yrs Cars & light trucks not
$ used 0 28 49,896 49,896 1,023,093
Inflation rate % 2.0% Fuel type unit End of project
Fuel rate life
consumption Fuel cost consumptioncost Fuel cost Fuel saved savings
Electricity export income - $ 0 CE production income - yrs $ 0 29 50,894 50,894 1,073,987
Natural gas m³ $ 0.400 160,194.2 $ 64,078 88,546.3 $ 35,419 71,647.8 $ export escalation
28,659 rate
Project life yr 20 Electricity % Total annual savings and income $ 64,078 30 51,912 51,912 1,125,899
Total $ 64,078 $ 35,419 $ 28,659 31 52,950 52,950 1,178,849
Debt ratio % 70% GHG reduction income 32 54,009 54,009 1,232,858
Debt interest rate % 7.00% Fuel Fuel Fuel Fuel tCO2/yr 0 33 55,089 55,089 1,287,948
Project verification consumption - consumption - consumption consumption - Net GHG reduction tCO2/yr 134 Financial viability 34 56,191 56,191 1,344,139
Debt term yr 10 Fuel type unit historical Base case variance Net GHG reduction - 40 yrs tCO2 5,342 Pre-tax IRR - equity % 50.7% 35 57,315 57,315 1,401,454
Natural gas m³ 160,194.2 GHG reduction credit rate $/tCO2 Pre-tax IRR - assets % 50.7% 36 58,461 58,461 1,459,916
GHG reduction income $ 0 37 59,631 59,631 1,519,546
Initial costs Heating Cooling Electricity Total GHG reduction credit duration yr After-tax IRR - equity % 50.7% 38 60,823 60,823 1,580,370
Energy GJ GJ GJ GJ Net GHG reduction - 0 yrs tCO2 0 After-tax IRR - assets % 50.7% 39 62,040 62,040 1,642,409
Incremental initial costs $ 4,000,000 100.0% GHG reduction credit escalation rate % 40 63,281 63,281 1,705,690
Energy - base case 4,204 0 0 4,204
Other $ 0.0% Energy - proposed case 2,324 0 0 2,324 Simple payback yr 2.1 41 0 0 1,705,690
Energy saved 1,880 0 0 1,880 Customer premium income (rebate) Equity payback yr 2.0 42 0 0 1,705,690
Total initial costs $ 4,000,000 100.0% Electricity premium (rebate) % 43 0 0 1,705,690
Energy saved - % 44.7% 44.7%
Electricity premium income (rebate) $ 0 Net Present Value (NPV) $ 225,387 44 0 0 1,705,690
Benchmark Heating premium (rebate) % Annual life cycle savings $/yr 27,340 45 0 0 1,705,690
Incentives and grants $ 0.0% Cumulative cash flows graph Heating premium income (rebate) $ 0 46 0 0 1,705,690
Energy unit kWh
Reference unit m² 7,500 Cooling premium (rebate) % Benefit-Cost (B-C) ratio 4.76 47 0 0 1,705,690
14,000,000 User-defined m² 2,000 Cooling premium income (rebate) $ 0 Debt service coverage No debt 48 0 0 1,705,690
Annual costs and debt payments Customer premium income (rebate) $ 0 Energy production cost $/MWh -791.21 49 0 0 1,705,690
O&M (savings) costs $ Benchmark Heating Cooling Electricity Total GHG reduction cost $/tCO2 (205) 50 0 0 1,705,690
12,000,000 Energy kWh/m² kWh/m² kWh/m² kWh/m² Other income (cost)
Fuel cost - proposed case $ 0 Energy MWh Cumulative cash flows graph
Energy - base case 155.7 0.0 0.0 155.7
Debt payments - 10 yrs $ 398,657 Energy - proposed case 86.1 0.0 0.0 86.1
Rate $/MWh
1,800,000
10,000,000 Other income (cost) $ 0
Other $ Energy saved 69.6 0.0 0.0 69.6
Cumulative cash flows ($)
Duration yr
Total annual costs $ 451,217 Escalation rate % 1,600,000
Clean Energy (CE) production income
8,000,000
CE production MWh 922
CE production credit rate $/kWh 1,400,000
Annual savings and income
CE production income $ 0
Fuel cost - base case $ 0 6,000,000 CE production credit duration yr 1,200,000
CE production credit escalation rate %
Electricity export income $ 788,400 Energy
www.RETScreen.net
Análisis
TÍTULO Financiero y de Riesgo con
Software RETScreen®
Costo (k$)
Combustible
10 Reemplazo de Baterías
– Costo inicial: 6.000 $ Costo Inicial
5
– Costo Anual: 1.000 $ for fuel*
– Reemplazo de baterías cada 4 años (1.500 $)* 0
0 5 10 15 20 25
– Reparación general cada 2 años (1.000 $)* Año
15
Reemplazo de Baterías
Costo (k$)
• Celdas Fotovoltaicas+batería (caso 10 Costo Inicial
propuesto): 5
– Costo inicial: 15.000 $
0
– Reemplazo de baterías cada 5 años (2.000 $)* 0 5 10 15 20 25
Año
DETERMINANDO LA VIABILIDAD
• FINANCIERA: EL EJEMPLO
¿Cómo comparamos DE LAS
el grupo electr. y el sistema FV?
TELECOMUNICACIONES
– Grupo electrógeno: menores REMOTAS
costos iniciales
– Fotovoltaico: menores costos anuales y periódicos
®
• RETScreen calcula
indicadores que
contemplan los ingresos
como los gastos de toda la
Flujos de Caja Acumulados
Ahorros Periódicos
$
20,000,000
Créditos de Producción 20
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Time (yr)
Tiempo (Años)
nadero -20
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (20,000,000)
Years
Miles de $
Período de Repago
Pagos de Deuda Anuales -80
TIR
Pagos OyM -100
Año Cobertura de Servicio
Costos Periódicos
de la Deuda
Etc.
PARÁMETROS FINANCIEROS
(ENTRADA) UTILIZADOS POR
RETSCREEN
Parámetros Financieros ®
• Tasa de descuento: tasa usada para convertir flujos de caja futuros al presente
• Costos de energía evitados:
– Para proyectos de calefacción y enfriamiento: el precio del combustible en el escenario de caso
base
– Para proyectos eléctricos que venden a la red: el precio pagado por la energía limpia vendida
(para promotores) o costos marginales (para empresas de servicio público)
INDICADORES (SALIDA) DE VIABILIDAD
FINANCIERA MÁS IMPORTANTES
Repago Simple Valor Presente Tasa Interna de
Neto Retorno (TIR y
(VPN) Retorno sobre la
Inversión)
Significado # de años para recuperar los Valor total del Interest yield of project
costos adicionales con los ahorros proyecto en dólares during its lifetime
anuales actuales
Criterios Repago < n años Valor positivo indica TIR > tasa mínima
proyecto rentable aceptable
indicadores y un gráfico de
flujo de caja acumulativo
ENFRENTÁNDOSE A LA INCERTIDUMBRE:
ANÁLISIS DE RIESGO Y SENSIBILIDAD
• En la etapa de factibilidad
preliminar, hay bastante
incertidumbre sobre los muchos
parámetros de entrada
• ¿Cómo se ve afectada la
rentabilidad del proyecto por esos
errores en los valores provistos
por el usuario?
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ANÁLISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD
• Muestra como la rentabilidad del proyecto cambia cuando dos
parámetros de entrada importantes varían simultáneamente
• Por ejemplo:
– Costos iniciales 10% mayores que los estimados
– Costos evitados de energía 20% mayores que los estimados
– ¿La TIR excede el umbral del 15% deseado por el usuario?
• Sí, es 15,2%
Las combinaciones de costos iniciales y costos evitados de energía debajo del umbral
se encuentran sombreadas
ANÁLISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD:
PARÁMETROS
• RETScreen® calcula sensibilidad de … Realizar análisis sobre
Rango de Sensibilidad
TIR después de Imptos.
20%
• Hay solo un riesgo del 10% que la TIR caiga fuera de este rango
Mediano
Nivel de Riesgo
Mínimo Nivel de Confianza
Máximo Nivel de Confianza
– Cómo los cambios en los parámetros afectan la TIR después de impuestos, el VPN,
o el tiempo hasta flujo de caja positivo
Costos anuales
Crédito de producc. ER
Relación deuda
Plazo de deuda
www.retscreen.net
RODRIGO RAMIREZ-PISCO. PHD.
rodrigoramirezpisco@gmail.com
Tel. +34-608642602
Linkedin. https://goo.gl/uQ18XE
www.unibarcelona.com