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Written by MEEDs experts, with Includes unique expert Detailed assessment of the
chapters from Colin Foreman, analysis of how the market is outlook, opportunities and
Andrew Roscoe, Jennifer changing and the impact of challenges in all of the major
Aguinaldo, Indrajit Sen. Curated these market changes. business areas.
and reviewed by Richard
Thompson.
Anne Bunch
Consultancy company based in Dubai
300+ pages mega projects 10 key business sectors review on the Vision 2030
Contents
Preface .................................................................................................................................................... 2
1 Executive summary........................................................................................................................ 10
2 Economic transformation ............................................................................................................... 13
Vision 2030: Progress Report ............................................................................................... 16
2.1.1 Social reforms ................................................................................................................... 17
2.1.2 Transformational megaprojects ......................................................................................... 17
2.1.3 The rise of the PIF ............................................................................................................. 19
2.1.4 Aramco IPO ....................................................................................................................... 19
2.1.5 Privatisation and PPPs ...................................................................................................... 20
2.1.6 Corruption crackdown ....................................................................................................... 21
2.1.7 NTP 2.0 ............................................................................................................................. 21
Vision 2030 targets ............................................................................................................... 22
2.2.1 Economy ........................................................................................................................... 23
2.2.2 Project spending................................................................................................................ 23
2.2.3 Public Investment Fund (PIF) ............................................................................................ 23
2.2.4 Oil & gas ............................................................................................................................ 23
2.2.5 Tourism & culture .............................................................................................................. 24
2.2.6 Housing ............................................................................................................................. 24
2.2.7 Healthcare ......................................................................................................................... 24
2.2.8 Education .......................................................................................................................... 24
2.2.9 Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) ................................................................... 24
2.2.10 Labour market ............................................................................................................... 25
2.2.11 Private sector development ........................................................................................... 25
2.2.12 Defence ......................................................................................................................... 25
2.2.13 Mining ............................................................................................................................ 25
2.2.14 Renewable energy & waste management .................................................................... 25
2.2.15 Transport & logistics ...................................................................................................... 26
2.2.16 GCC .............................................................................................................................. 26
2.2.17 Food & agriculture ......................................................................................................... 26
2.2.18 Digital economy ............................................................................................................. 26
National Transformation Programme (NTP) ......................................................................... 27
2.3.1 National Project Management Office ................................................................................ 28
2.3.2 NTP targets ....................................................................................................................... 28
3 Government ................................................................................................................................... 33
Change in the ruling family.................................................................................................... 33
Relations with the US ............................................................................................................ 36
Regional diplomacy and conflict............................................................................................ 36
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Written by MEEDs experts, with Includes unique expert Detailed assessment of the
chapters from Colin Foreman, analysis of how the market is outlook, opportunities and
Andrew Roscoe, Jennifer changing and the impact of challenges in all of the major
Aguinaldo, Indrajit Sen. Curated these market changes. business areas.
and reviewed by Richard
Thompson.
Anne Bunch
Consultancy company based in Dubai
300+ pages mega projects 10 key business sectors review on the Vision 2030
The second biggest area of activity is the government services sector, which is essentially
funded by oil revenues and includes items such as public administration, defence and other
activities.
The third largest area of activity is financial and business services, followed by wholesale
and retail trade, restaurant and hotels – a sector which is being boosted by growing
demand for services for pilgrims and should also benefit from the ongoing development of
the general tourism industry – and then manufacturing industry, such as petrochemicals,
steel and aluminium.
Community, social
& personal
services, 2.3
Agriculture, 2.5
Manufacturing, 9.7
Finance, real
estate & business
Trade, restaurants services, 13.1
& hotels, 10.7
Source: Sama
Inflation
Saudi inflation, 2007−2018 (%)
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-1.0
-2.0
Source: IMF
Overall, between 2010 and 2018, Saudi Arabia awarded close to $366bn of contracts
across all sectors; $228bn of contracts are still under execution.
10,000
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: MEED Projects
120,000
100,000
82,267
80,000
60,000
47,087
40,000 29,458
26,164 24,545
20,000 16,176
9,434
Another major deal due to be signed this year is a $16bn contract for the construction of
the Mecca Metro by the Makkah Mass Rail Transit Company (MMRTC), which involves
four new metro lines – A, B, C and D – complementing the Al-Mashaaer Al-Mugaddassah
metro line.
Written by MEEDs experts, with Includes unique expert Detailed assessment of the
chapters from Colin Foreman, analysis of how the market is outlook, opportunities and
Andrew Roscoe, Jennifer changing and the impact of challenges in all of the major
Aguinaldo, Indrajit Sen. Curated these market changes. business areas.
and reviewed by Richard
Thompson.
Anne Bunch
Consultancy company based in Dubai
300+ pages mega projects 10 key business sectors review on the Vision 2030
parent Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI). This adds to Aramco’s existing 64.3 per cent stake
in S-Oil Corp, South Korea’s third-largest refiner.
Aramco is expected to continue shopping for refining assets going forward. The company’s
downstream capacity covers only a third of its production – a much lower ratio than the oil
majors Aramco wants to compete with. Greater downstream integration would also provide
a key hedge against low oil prices in the future.
Upstream oil
Hydrocarbons resources in Saudi Arabia are limited to a relatively small geographical
region and a number of large oil fields. Production primarily comes from 12 reservoirs in
the north-eastern corner of the kingdom, along with the Shaybah field in the south.
The kingdom has three of the world’s six giant fields in Khurais, Safaniya and Ghawar,
which each have the capacity to produce over 1 million b/d. Ghawar is the world’s largest
oil field, and is capable of producing about 5 million b/d. Safaniya and Khurais each
possess a production capacity of 1.2 million b/d.
Other large fields in the kingdom include Shaybah, Zuluf and Abu Safah, which produce
750,000-850,000 b/d. The Marjan and Qatif are also major fields, with production
capacities of 450,000-500,000 b/d each. Saudi Arabia’s allocation from the Divided Zone
is about 350,000 b/d. Other smaller fields include Haradh and Berri, each with capacities
of over 300,000 b/d.
MPC’s main source of phosphate rock is the Al-Jalamid mine in the north, near the border
with Iraq. The site includes a beneficiation plant and supporting infrastructure. The mine
produces about 11.6 million tonnes a year (t/y) of ore, which is processed into about 5
million t/y of dry concentrate.
The phosphate concentrates at Al-Jalamid, which has a measured resource of 534 million
tonnes, is transported by rail to Ras Al-Khair on the Gulf coast for processing into fertiliser.
Ras Al-Khair, 90km north of Jubail, hosts MPC’s $5bn integrated chemicals and fertiliser
production plant, which manufactures saleable products from Al-Jalamid concentrate.
The fertiliser complex contains a phosphoric acid plant, sulphuric acid plant, ammonia
plant, di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) granulation plant, a co-generation, and
desalinisation plant and associated facilities.
Source: Maaden
The DAP granulation plant started production in February 2012 and has a capacity of 3
million t/y. The offtake from the plant is sold on the international market, with 400,000 t/y
of surplus ammonia being sold domestically or internationally.
The complex also has the capability to produce mono-ammonium phosphate (MAP) if
market requirements demand it. A new ammonia plant began production at Ras Al-Khair
in January 2017.
The process for establishing a third sulphuric acid plant (DAP3) at the site is underway. In
November 2018, Maaden signed the financing agreement of $266m with Industrial
Development fund for the development of the project. The main contract tender issue for
the project is expected in the third quarter of 2019.
The £925m SEC PP14 Combined Cycle Power Plant covers three projects: PP14
Combined Cycle Power Plant: Electro-mechanical Installation Package (95 per cent
completed); PP14 Combined Cycle Power Plant: Industrial Buildings Package (96 per cent
completed); and PP14 Combined Cycle Power Plant: Early & General Civil Works Package
(completed).
The residential sector was the largest consumer of electricity in the kingdom in 2017,
accounting for 48 per cent of total energy consumption that year. The industrial sector was
the second largest user, accounting for 18 per cent, followed by commercial users with 16
per cent and government with 13 per cent.
Written by MEEDs experts, with Includes unique expert Detailed assessment of the
chapters from Colin Foreman, analysis of how the market is outlook, opportunities and
Andrew Roscoe, Jennifer changing and the impact of challenges in all of the major
Aguinaldo, Indrajit Sen. Curated these market changes. business areas.
and reviewed by Richard
Thompson.
Anne Bunch
Consultancy company based in Dubai
300+ pages mega projects 10 key business sectors review on the Vision 2030
Transmission & distribution
The kingdom has comfortably been the region’s largest spender on transmission and
distribution (T&D) infrastructure since 2008, with about $28.9bn-worth of contracts
awarded until the end of December 2018. The largest of these was a $550m contract
awarded in 2008 to Middle East Engineering & Development Company for the construction
of the Qassim-Medina Transmission Line project.
7,000
5,980
6,000
5,000
4,000 3,740
3,324
3,114
3,000 2,765
1,855
2,000
910 997
1,000
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Investment in the transmission sector increased from 2011 to 2014 when it peaked at a
total value of nearly $6bn. Investment in the transmission sector is divided between
investment in cables and overhead lines, as well as substations and control centres.
Investment in the latter accounted for an average of 66 per cent of total investment
between 2011 and 2014.
Post-2014, there was a declining trend in investment in the transmission sector. Between
2017 and 2018, there was a marginal increase in investment, particularly in cables and
overhead lines.
7 6.5
6
5
4 3.3
3
2
1 0.2
0
Desalination water Ground water Surface water
Sources: SWCC
Historically, the kingdom opted for desalination rather than alternatives such as large water
transfer projects or further over-exploitation of deep groundwater. However, much of the
existing desalination capacity was built before 1990 and needs to be replaced over the
coming decade.
Source: SWCC
In 2000-08, very little new capacity was commissioned as a result of budgetary problems
for the government and SWCC; this was exacerbated by the fact that several contractors
faced serious payment issues for projects undertaken in the late 1990s.
However, rising oil prices and the launch of a utility privatisation programme resulted in an
increase in investment. In 2010, Saudi Arabia regained its position as the leading
desalination producer after two of the world’s largest plants – the Shuaibah IWPP on the
Red Sea and the Jubail IWPP on the Gulf coast – were commissioned. The plants boosted
Source: NWC
To address this area, NWC is planning to spend an average of $600m a year on TSE
projects until 2028, including $1.5bn on projects in three major cities over the next four
years. Among its plans, the company will invest $800m in Riyadh, $530m in Jeddah and
$160m in Mecca.
All NWC’s new treatment projects will employ tertiary technology as a minimum. This is a
prerequisite, given that NWC is aiming for a significant increase in TSE reuse.
NWC has signed more than 12 agreements and memorandums of understanding (MoUs)
with companies for bulk TSE supply. Under the 20–25-year contracts, the private sector is
responsible for distributing the TSE from the STPs.
Forecast of TSE usage in the kingdom’s six major cities, 2011−30 (cm/d)
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Source: NWC
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
The biggest project currently on hold is the construction of four-star hotels in Group 4A of
Dar Al Hijrah’s Pilgrim City project. Dar Al Hijrah, a body owned by the Public Investment
Fund, is planning to develop an integrated mixed-use project called Pilgrim City comprising
100 buildings to accommodate over 120,000 pilgrims and 31,000 employees.
Written by MEEDs experts, with Includes unique expert Detailed assessment of the
chapters from Colin Foreman, analysis of how the market is outlook, opportunities and
Andrew Roscoe, Jennifer changing and the impact of challenges in all of the major
Aguinaldo, Indrajit Sen. Curated these market changes. business areas.
and reviewed by Richard
Thompson.
Anne Bunch
Consultancy company based in Dubai
300+ pages mega projects 10 key business sectors review on the Vision 2030
16.4.3 Mecca Metro
Mecca has a light rail system in operation, but it is only used during peak pilgrimage times,
which is about seven days a year, to transport worshippers between various holy sites.
The pilgrim metro line, also known as the Al Mashaaer al Mugadassah Metro, links the
holy sites of Mecca, Mina, Arafat and Muzdalifah. It spans 18km, and has the capacity to
transport 72,000 passengers an hour.
The metro was built by Chinese contractors under a $1.77bn contract between the
Municipal & Rural Affairs Ministry and China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC)
signed in February 2009. The contract covered the construction of the scheme and a three-
year O&M concession.
After a limited capacity test run during the 2010 Hajj, the metro was used at full capacity
from 2011 to 2013. CRCC operated the trains from 2011 to 2013, incurring net losses
estimated at $607m prior to transferring the project to the client. In May 2015, Malaysia’s
Prasarana Berhad won a SR807m three-year O&M contract for the service.
A further multi-phased light rail project has also been proposed for the city. The proposed
Mecca mass rail transit project (MMRT) will include the construction of four new metro
lines, A, B, C and D, complementing the Al Mashaaer Al Mugaddassah line. The new lines
will have a total length of 180km and will link about 88 stations.
The project aims to address the city’s traffic congestion issues, caused by a consistently
growing population and the rising number of pilgrims, whose number is expected to exceed
25 million by 2030.
Mecca Metro
Saudi ports
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Import Export
The kingdom exports mainly to the UAE, China, India, Singapore and Kuwait. It imports
mainly from China, the US, Germany, Japan, South Korea and the UAE.
Riyadh usually enjoys a trade surplus, although its scale varies with the fluctuations in
global oil prices. Exports grew rapidly in 2018, aided by rising oil prices, to reach SR1.1
trillion ($294bn). Its imports in 2018 were SR507bn, leaving a surplus of SR597bn, the
highest since 2015.
Those wishing to sell products and services to Saudi Arabia are not required to establish
a direct or permanent presence in the kingdom. Instead, they can trade on open account
and deal with Saudi customers by phone and email without even sending an employee
into the country; this is often adequate for small companies and those that do not attach
great significance to the local market. For others, however, the option of establishing a
direct or indirect presence has to be seriously considered to take advantage of the
opportunities the market offers, and to conform to local law.
The first condition is that the Saudi agent or representative is properly incorporated under
the kingdom’s regulations for companies. This entails a Saudi national or corporation
registering with the Commerce & Industry Ministry and other relevant bodies and stating
which activities it wishes to pursue. Foreign firms working with individuals or entities that
are not properly incorporated and registered will quickly discover that few advantages will
be secured by taking this route.
Foreign firms appointing a Saudi company as an agent or representative are free to define
the relationship by contract within the terms of the commercial agencies’ regulations. This
can be registered in a foreign jurisdiction, although it will make the enforcement of
Written by MEEDs experts, with Includes unique expert Detailed assessment of the
chapters from Colin Foreman, analysis of how the market is outlook, opportunities and
Andrew Roscoe, Jennifer changing and the impact of challenges in all of the major
Aguinaldo, Indrajit Sen. Curated these market changes. business areas.
and reviewed by Richard
Thompson.
Anne Bunch
Consultancy company based in Dubai
300+ pages mega projects 10 key business sectors review on the Vision 2030