Presidential election swings in Biden’s

favour
US 2020 Election Outlook
A report by The Economist Intelligence Unit
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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SWINGS IN BIDEN’S FAVOUR
US 2020 ELECTION OUTLOOK

US 2020 presidential election swings in

Biden’s favour
T he outlook for the US presidential election, which will take place in November, has changed
dramatically in recent months. At the start of 2020 the incumbent, Donald Trump, looked set
to win a second presidential term. The US economy was in its longest-ever growth streak, with
unemployment rate at a record low, and the Democratic field was in disarray, with a large number of
candidates threatening to divide the Democratic vote well into primary season.
All of this has changed. The coronavirus pandemic has ushered in the most serious economic
recession since the 1930s, wiping out more than a decade of jobs growth. The US is also experiencing
its most serious wave of civil unrest in a half a century, as public frustration over racial inequality and
police brutality has sparked protests nationwide. Mr Trump’s response to both crises has further
exposed his divisive style, which is unpopular among the independent voters who will be critical in
deciding the election’s outcome. Meanwhile, Democratic voters have rallied behind their nominee,
Joe Biden.

Swing states that Trump narrowly won in 2016 will be key in 2020 election

Washington
12
Montana New Hampshire Maine
Oregon North Dakota Vermont
3 3 Minnesota 4
7
Idaho 10
New 3 4
4 South Dakota Wisconsin York
Wyoming Michigan 11 Massachusetts
3 10 29
3 16 7 Rhode Island (4)
Nevada Iowa Pennsylvania Connecticut
Nebraska Ohio
6 Utah 6 20 14 New Jersey
5 Indiana 18
6 Washington, DC (3 )
California Colorado Illinois 11 3
W. Virginia 10 Delaware
55 9 Kansas 20 5 Virginia
6 Missouri Kentucky Maryland
10 13
8
Arizona Tennessee North Carolina
11 New Mexico Oklahoma 11 15
Arkansas
5 7 9
6 Alabama South
9 Carolina
Mississippi Georgia
Texas 16
Alaska 38 Louisiana 6
3 8
Hawaii 4 Florida
29

Margin of victory by state, 2016

15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Swing states that may decide the 2020 election

Source: US Federal Election Commission; The New York Times.

1 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SWINGS IN BIDEN’S FAVOUR
US 2020 ELECTION OUTLOOK

The presidential race will be closely fought, but The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that the
odds have now shifted firmly in Mr Biden’s favour.

The pathway to the White House has changed since 2016

Mr Trump trod a narrow path to victory in the 2016 presidential election. He lost the popular vote
by around 2%, but his razor-thin margins in four swing states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida and
Wisconsin—won him a majority in the Electoral College. Mr Trump still enjoys a strong base, estimated
at around 40-44% of the population, who will turn out for him on election day.
However, Mr Trump will need to attract voters from outside of his core base in order to defeat
Mr Biden. Both candidates have a strong base, so the outcome of the 2020 election will be decided by
two main factors: the behaviour of swing and independent voters—particularly voters in suburban
areas and struggling industrial areas, many of whom supported Mr Trump in 2016—and overall
voter turnout.
The Trump campaign has lost most of its previous advantages in recent months. As a result, we do
not expect him to be able to generate enough support from swing voters to follow the same narrow
path to victory in 2020.

Key shift: The US economy faces a severe recession

The most important shift for the Trump campaign is the state of the economy. Earlier hopes that the
economy would rebound strongly in the third quarter of 2020 as coronavirus lockdown measures are
lifted now appear far-fetched. We do not expect consumer spending to recover to pre-coronavirus
levels until a vaccine becomes widely available, which we do not expect to happen until end-2021 at
the earliest. Weak demand will continue to weigh on businesses and most likely keep unemployment
around 10% at the time of the election (compared with 3.5% in February).

Unemployment benefit claims remain high, despite gradual re-opening

('000 initial benefit claims per week, seasonally adjusted)

8,000 Headline unemployment rate 8,000

3.6% 3.5% 4.4% 14.7% 13.3%
7,000 ( January) (February) (March) (April) (May) 7,000

6,000 6,000

5,000 5,000

4,000 4,000

3,000 3,000

2,000 2,000

1,000 1,000

0 0
04-Jan
11-Jan
18-Jan
25-Jan

07-Mar
14-Mar
21-Mar
28-Mar
01-Feb
08-Feb
15-Feb
22-Feb
29-Feb

04-Apr
11-Apr
18-Apr
25-Apr
02-May
09-May
16-May
23-May
30-May
06-Jun
13-Jun

Source: US Department of Labor.

2 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SWINGS IN BIDEN’S FAVOUR
US 2020 ELECTION OUTLOOK

Roughly 40m Americans have filed for enhanced unemployment benefits since March under the
federal government’s emergency coronavirus response. This emergency aid has sheltered many
households from the worst effects of the recession, which may be inflating Mr Trump’s already
unimpressive poll numbers. These enhanced benefits expire in July and are not guaranteed to be
extended. This means that many households will be in a more precarious financial position in the third
quarter than they are now. This does not bode well for Mr Trump, as economic conditions immediately
surrounding elections are a strong determinant of voter behaviour.
This in itself is not enough to preclude Mr Trump from winning re-election. Indeed, the fact that
the recession was sparked by a global pandemic could mean that it will have less of a negative impact
on Mr Trump than it has on previous recession-era presidents. However, this is just one of several
indicators that are flashing red for the Trump campaign.

Key shift: Incumbency becomes a risk

As president, Mr Trump remains central in the effort to combat the coronavirus pandemic, offering
him a level of media attention that any candidate would envy. Mr Biden has thus far been forced to
campaign from home, unable to generate the same level of momentum (or donations) that would
normally come from campaign rallies.
For Mr Trump, however, the unfolding national crises have undermined the traditional benefits of
incumbency. His decision-making power brings accountability, and his intense media exposure brings
risks. A majority of Americans disapprove of the way that the Trump administration has handled the
Covid-19 crisis, according to polling aggregates from FiveThirtyEight. These perceptions fall cleanly
along party lines, with a majority of Republicans approving of Mr Trump’s handling of the crisis.
But Mr Trump does not need to convince staunch Republicans; he needs to convince swing voters.
Crucially, less than 40% of independent voters approve of his response.

Majority of independent voters disapprove of Trump's handling of Covid-19

(% survey respondents)
February 29th Republicans
March 21st March 28th May 28th
First reported Most states begin Weekly unemployment US death surpass 100,000 Democrats
Covid-19 death implementing claims spike to almost 6.9m Independents
100 in US stay-at-home 100
measures

80 80

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0
2/16/20 2/23 3/1 3/8 3/15 3/22 3/29 4/5 4/12 4/19 4/26 5/3 5/10 5/17 5/24 5/31 6/7 6/14
Source: FiveThirtyEight.

3 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SWINGS IN BIDEN’S FAVOUR
US 2020 ELECTION OUTLOOK

Mr Trump’s aggressive response to nationwide protests sparked by the May 25th killing of an

unarmed black man, George Floyd, by a police officer will also weigh on his re-election prospects.
Mr Trump has taken a hard line, decrying protesters as far-left radicals and encouraging the heavy
use of force to disperse demonstrations. Mr Trump’s focus on law enforcement will resonate with
his core supporters. However, his disdain for the protests will mobilise black voters and could
antagonise suburban voters, most likely strengthening voter turnout for Mr Biden from these two key
demographics. Since the start of the Black Lives Matter protests in late May, Mr Trump’s net approval
ratings have fallen from -10.8% to -14.3%, an 18month low and an unenviable starting point for any
candidate for reelection.
How Trump compares with past presidents
(Net public approval rating, %)

Donald Trump Barack Obama George W. Bush Bill Clinton

100 100

80 80

60 60

40 40

20 20

0 0

-20 -20

-40 -40
416 days 831 days 1,247 days
Source: Five ThirtyEight.

Key shift: The Democrats have a strong candidate

Mr Trump will face a much more significant challenge from Mr Biden than he did from the Democratic
nominee in 2016, Hillary Clinton. For one, Mr Biden has a stronger, broader base of support among
Democrats than Mrs Clinton did. Both Mr Biden and Mrs Clinton, centrist Democrats, competed
against progressive Vermont senator Bernie Sanders in their respective races for the Democratic
nomination. Mrs Clinton won roughly 55% of the primary vote against Mr Sanders, narrowly securing
the nomination at the end of the primary season. She was then handicapped in the presidential
election by the fact that she struggled to win the support of progressive Democrats, as well as white
working-class voters in industrial states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The situation for this year’s race is different. Mr Biden had won roughly 70% of the Democratic
primary vote by end March, prompting Mr Sanders to withdraw from the nomination race at an earlier

4 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SWINGS IN BIDEN’S FAVOUR
US 2020 ELECTION OUTLOOK

Support for Biden among registered voters stage. Mr Biden’s resounding primary victory in
is rising steadily Michigan—where he won a majority of votes in
(% of respondents who would vote for each every county—suggest that Democratic voters
candidate if the election were held today)
in industrial swing states will support him in the
60
election.
Mr Biden also benefits from a higher approval
55
rating among the general electorate than
Biden Mrs Clinton did, increasing the likelihood that he
50
will win over crucial swing voters. At the moment,
Mr Biden leads Mr Trump in opinion polling in the
45 key swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin, and
Trump the two are neck-and-neck in Florida, Iowa, Ohio
40 and Arizona (all of which went for Mr Trump in
2016). Without the support of swing voters, the
35 president will find it much harder to tread the
Jul Sep Oct Jan Feb Mar May
same narrow path to victory.
2019 20
Source: Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Biden currently leads in swing states that were key to Trump’s 2016 victory
Average margin in May 2020 polling Electoral
State 2016 election result
aggregates College votes
Texas Trump +1.5 38 Trump +9.0
Georgia Trump +1.0 16 Trump +5.1
Pennslvania Biden +0.1 20 Trump +0.7
North Carolina Biden +0.5 15 Trump +3.6
Florida Biden +2.5 29 Trump +1.2
Arizona Biden +3.3 11 Trump +3.5
Wisconsin Biden +6.2 10 Trump +0.7
Michigan Biden +7.6 16 Trump +0.3
Source: FiveThirtyEight; US Federal Election Commission.

Forecast risks: Wildcards at play

There are a number of wildcard factors that could affect the outcome of the race.
Economy: The first wildcard is the pace at which the US economy recovers from the pandemic-
induced crisis. A worse economic situation in the third quarter than currently—for example, if a second
wave of coronavirus cases prompts another lockdown period—would work in Mr Biden’s favour.
Conversely, if the virus is contained more quickly than we expect, the odds would tilt back towards
Mr Trump.
Social unrest: The recent wave of protests also has important implications. If protests continue and
are accompanied by further looting and vandalism, the appeal of Mr Trump’s focus on law enforcement
could be boosted. However, if protests are met with excessive use of force, swing voters are likely to
move further away from the administration.
5 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SWINGS IN BIDEN’S FAVOUR
US 2020 ELECTION OUTLOOK

US-China tensions: A potential further deterioration in US-China relations could also sway the
election—particularly if the US-China trade deal were to collapse, hurting US farmers, whose votes are
critical for Mr Trump.
Running mate: Mr Biden’s choice of vice president will also be critical, given his age (77). He has said
that he will choose a female running mate, which could help to assuage concerns among female
voters over recent sexual misconduct allegations (which have not been confirmed and which Mr Biden
denies). If Mr Biden chooses a progressive Democrat, he may find it easier to win over former
supporters of Mr Sanders, strengthening his support base.
Covid-19 and voter turnout: Finally, it remains unclear whether social-distancing precautions
will depress voter turnout in November. Both candidates have strong support bases, and they are
competing for the swing and independent voters that fall in between. Maximising voter turnout will
therefore be critical, including through mail-in ballots. If the postal ballot system malfunctions in
the face of much higher than average mail-in voting, the outcome of the election could be disputed,
leading to a messy transition.

6 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2020

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