Quantifying Fire Protection System Performance Success Probability

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APPRAISAL ANALYSIS PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT
3 Loss Scenario 7 Risk Estimation

1 Program Development & Comparison
Objectives With Risk Tolerance
6 Fire Protection System
4 Initiating Event (FPS) Performance
Risk Likelihood Success Probability
2 8 Cost/Benefit
Tolerance Analysis of Risk
Criteria 5 Exposure Profile
Modeling Reduction Alternatives
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FPS
Initiating Event
Conditional Events
Automatic
Example: Detection Suppression
ETA Flammable Liquid System System
Release and Fire Occurs Successful Successful
.70
Initiating .90
Event YES
.01 Fires/Year
YES
NO
Likelihood
Estimation NO
Historical Conditional Probability of

FTA Fire Protection System
Data
Performance Success
Engineering
Judgment
TOP EVENT TOP EVENT
STA
NOTE: ETA = Event Tree Analysis FTA = Fault Tree Analysis

FPS = Fire Protection System STA = Success Tree Analysis
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STEP 4 STEP 6
Scenario Initiating Event FPS Performance Success Likelihood of Fire or

Input Likelihood \ Probability (i.e., a conditional = Explosion Incident
(Events/year) probability) Outcome
(incidents/year)
<AND> STEP 5 STEP 7
Likelihood of Fire Consequences Annualized

and Explosion (F&E) \ [i.e., exposure levels = Risk Level
Incident Outcome and consequences (in $, EMV)
(Incidents/year) translated into an
equivalent monetary
value (EMV)]
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Life Safety
Exposure Levels
Event
Likelihood
PROPERTY
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Property Damage
Exposure Levels
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F ire
Em ergen cy C on trol and E xtinction Line
O ccu rs
S ystem S uccessful Successful N um b er Incident R isk Tolerance
[B1]
1 Sm all low
Y ES exp osure fire
[A 1]
0.03
Likelih ood P otential: [C 1]
1 fire/30 years NO 2 C ontrolled fire
[B 2]
[C 2]
3 U ncontrolled 1.0 Y 10 18
high exposure events/year
0 1-5 5-20 fire
Tim e, m inutes
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[A ] [B] [C]
D etection and Fire Suppression Branch
Fire
Em ergency C ontrol and Extinction Line
O ccurs
System Successful Successful Num ber Incident R isk Level
[B1] 0.97
1 Small low
YES exposure fire
[A1]
0.03
Likelihood Potential: [C1] 0.95
1 fire/30 years NO 2 C ontrolled fire
[B2] 0.03
[C2] 0.05
3 U ncontrolled 4.5 Y 10 19
high exposure events/year
0 1-5 5-20 fire
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Initiating Fire & Explosion Event Tree

Fire Intermediate
Events Incident Outcomes Analysis
Scenario & Consequences
Conditional
Probabilities of Fire
Protection System
Success
Detection Emergency Automatic Propagation Manual Fire

System Control Suppression Limitation Suppression Protection
Successful System System Measures System Systems
Successful Successful Successful Successful
System System Performance

System Response
On-Line Operational Measures
Effectiveness
Availability Reliability
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Wyggiww$Xvii$Erep}wmw
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w}wxiq2
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erh$w}wxiqexmg$izepyexmsr$sj$tvmqev}$tivjsvqergi$qiewyviw$xlex$gsrxvmfyxi$xs$xli$uyerxmjmgexmsr$$
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eggyvexip}2
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nywxmjmgexmsr$jsv$wipigxih$tvsfefmpmxmiw
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xlex${lex1mj$erh$wirwmxmzmx}$erep}wmw$ger$fi$gsrhygxih
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Mr$JXE0$xli$xst$izirx$mw$Ôw}wxiq$jempyvi2Õ$Mr$WXE0$xli$xst$izirx$mw$Ôw}wxiq$wyggiww2Õ$Ew$wls{r$mr
Jmk2$:2:0$xli$gsvvipexmsr$fix{iir$JXE$erh$WXE$mw>
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Ew$mrhmgexih$sr$xli$fsxxsq$sj$Jmk2$:2:0$mj$xli$tvsfefmpmx}$sj$jempyvi$,jvsq$JXE-$mw$424:0$xlir$
xli$tvsfefmpmx}$sj$wyggiww$,jvsq$WXE-$mw$42=82
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svmirxexmsr2
Jmk2$:2:> I|eqtpi$sj$Jeypx$Xvii$Erep}wmw$zw2$Wyggiww$Xvii$Erep}wmw
Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)
System X
Failure PF = PFX1 + PFX2 + PFX3
Probability (PF)
PF = .01 + .02 + .03 = 0.06
OR
PFX1 = .01 PFX2 = .02 PFX3 = .03
X1 Fails X2 Fails X3 Fails (Subsystems)
Note: Use of 'OR' GATE
Success Tree Analysis (STA)
System X
Success PS = PSX1 x PSX2 x PSX3
Probability (PS) PS = .99 x .98 x .97 = 0.94
AND
PSX1 = .99 PSX2 = .98 PSX3 = .97
X1 Successful X2 Successful X3 Successful
Note: Use of 'AND' GATE
Correlation between FTA and STA

Probability of Failure (PF) + Probability of Success (PS) = 1
.06 (PF) + .94 (PF) = 1
Probability of Success (PS) = 1 - Probability of Failure (PF)
0.94 (PS) = 1 - 0.06 (PF)
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Jmk2$:2;> I|eqtpi$sj$Tvmqev}$JTW$Wyggiww$Qiewyviw
FAULTS SUCCESS MEASURES
System Not Responsive Response Effectiveness

to a Specific Scenario [RE]
- time delay in system
activation
- application problems
FPS - inappropriate design basis
Performance - system capacity, duration
Indicators insufficient
- system does not respond in time
prior to critical conditions
System Not On-Line On-Line Availability

at the Time of Emergency [OLA]
- down for inspection,
maintenance, testing
- down because of false
trips or unscheduled repairs
- down because of common
cause (i.e., freezing)
System Did Not Function Operational Reliability
Properly at the Time of [OPR]
Emergency (i.e., failure on demand)
- subsystem "hidden"
failure occurs
- design & operational common
cause failure (mechanical damage,
earthquake, etc.)
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Primary RE OLA OPR

Performance Response On-Line Operational
Measure Effectiveness Availability Reliability
FPS
Performance
Success PS = PRE | POLA | POPR
Probability
(PS)
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Specific FPS Functional Risk Tolerance

Scenario Performance Requirements Criteria
FPS
Performance
Success
Probability (PS) PS = P1.0 x P2.0 x P3.0
AND
1.0 2.0 3.0
RE OLA OPR
System is Effective System is System Meets
(Scenario-Based On Line Operational
Response (System Requirements
Effectiveness) Availability) on Demand
(Operational
Reliability)
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tivjsvqergi$qiewyviw$ger$tvsgiih>
¨ VI$Ò$Viwtsrwi$Ijjigxmziriww
¨ SPE$Ò$Sr1Pmri$Ezempefmpmx}
¨ STV$Ò$Stivexmsrep$Vipmefmpmx}
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qe}$jemp$srgi$syx$sj$e$50444$hiqerhw-0$xli$w}wxiq$vipmefmpmx}$mw$42===2
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Unavailable due to being off-line

during emergency demand
FPS Functional Failure on demand due to a

Failure hidden or unrevealed fault
Failure to operate over a defined

mission (duration) time
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System System is on-line at the time

Availability of emergency demand
System meets a functional
FPS Reliability Functional operational requirement during
Parameters Reliability an emergency demand
Mission Time System functions over a required

Reliability period of time
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jsv$e$tivjsvqergi$gvmxivme$hiwmkr$ksep$mw$xss$ps{2$Ls{iziv0$mj$xli$hiwmkr$ger$qiix$xli$jspps{mrk
tvsfefmpmxmiw$,T->
TVI$$$A$42=<
TSPE$A$42==
TSTV$A$42=<
xlir$xli$viwypxmrk$tvsfefmpmx}$sj$JTW$wyggiww$,TW-$ew$wls{r$mr$Jmk2$:2=$mw$TW$A$TVI$,42=<-$Y$TSPE
,42==-$|$TSVT$,42=<-$A$42=92
Jmk2$:2=> JTW$Tivjsvqergi$Wyggiww$Xvii$Pskmg
S p e cific F P S F u n ctio n a l R isk To lera n c e
S c e na r io P e rfo r m a n ce R e q u irem en ts C riteria
FPS
P e rfo r m a n ce
S u cc e ss P S = 0 .9 5
P ro b a b ility (P S ) P S = P 1 .0 x P 2.0 x P 3 .0
AND
1 .0 P = 0 .9 8 2 .0 P = 0 .9 9 3 .0 P = 0 .9 8
RE OLA OPR
S y ste m is E ffe ctiv e S y stem is S y stem M ee ts
(S ce n a r io -B a sed O n L in e O p er a tio n a l
R e sp o n se (S y stem R e qu ire m e nts
E ffectiv en e ss) Av a ila b ility ) o n D em a n d
(O pe ra tio n a l
R e lia b ility )
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xs$tivjsvqergi$wyggiww2
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erh$xlir$gsrzivxw$xliq$xs$wyggiww$xvii$svmirxexmsr2$Ew$wls{r$mr$Jmk2$:2540$xli$rsxexmsrw$ywih$jsv$
xli$gsrzivwmsr$evi$mr$hewlih$pmriw2
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Specific FPS Functional Risk Tolerance

Scenario Performance Requirements Criteria
FPS
Performance
Success
Probability (PS) PS = P1.0 x P2.0 x P3.0
AND
1.0 2.0 POLA = 1 - PDT 3.0 POPR = 1 - PFOD
RE OLA OPR
System is Effective System is System Meets
(Scenario-Based On Line Operational
Response (System Requirements
Effectiveness) Availability) on Demand
(Operational
Reliability)
Note:
Convert from
fault tree logic to DT FOD
success tree System Down-Time System Failure on
Probability Demand Probability
PDT PFOD
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¨ Iwxmqexi$Jempyvi1Sr1Hiqerh$Tvsfefmpmxmiw
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¨ Hsgyqirx$Hexe$Wsyvgiw$erh$Ehhviww$Yrgivxemrx}$Mwwyiw
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hijmrmxmsr>
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Emergency Water Spray
Con trol Suppression
System Successful
Successfully (Pool Fire)
Operates .90
Yes High Probability
Yes .10 of Success
No (Three Dimensional
.05 Spill Fire)
No Yes
Very Low Probability
.95 of Success
No
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FP S
P erform ance
P erform ance
Success
R equirem ent P S = P R E x P OLA x P O PR
(P S)
A ND
1.0 P RE = P DA B x P SRT 2.0 P OLA = 1 - P D T 3.0 P OPR = 1 - P FO D

RE OL A OP R
R esponse Effectiveness On -Line Operation al
(P R E) Availab ility R eliab ility
(P OLA ) (P OPR )
AND
1.1 P D AB = P SU x P C P x P D U 1.2
DAB SRT
D esign A pplication System R esponse S ystem D ow n-Tim e O perational Failu re
B asis E ffective Time E ffectiveness Probability On-
(P D AB ) PD T D em and Probability
(P FO D )
AND
1.1.1 1.1.2 1.1.3
Suitability C apacity D uration
Is N ot Subsystem (s) M ission Tim e
O n-Line F ail on D em and Failure P robability
Tim e-S ystem is

O n-Line
Time-System
R esponse
Time-System
D uration
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52 I|tivmirgi
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Design Is Effective, P = 1.0

Applicaton
Basis Is N ot Effective, P = 0
Probability Partial or Uncertain
Selection Effectiveness P>0, P<1.0
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FPS automatic activation Automatic Response Time

device does not activate
SRT at the target
Performance
Indicators
FPS manual activation Manual Response Time

method is not effective
at the target
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Target Threshold
Damage Limits
Requirements
1.2
SRT
Effectiveness
Probability PSRT = P 1.2.1 + P 1.2.2
OR
1.2.1 1.2.2
Automatic Activation Device Manual Activation Method
responds prior to responds prior to
critical conditions critical conditions
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Table 6.3: Example Loss of Functional Performance versus Time, for Thermal and Nonthermal Exposures $:$Ò$74
Time Line
Minutes 1 3 5 10 15 20 25 30 45
Thermal Exposure
People
Operator - Production Floor
Operator - Control Room
Plant Fire Brigade
Equipment
Control Room DCS Equipment
Structure Moderate Severe
Control Room Glass
Window Fails
Compartment Walls
Weaken
Steel Columns at 50%
yield strength
Secondary Effects
Ignition secondary fuel
package, production floor
Ignition of PVC cablesthat
enter Control Room floor
Nonthermal Exposure
People
Operator - Control Room
Visibility thru Smoke Layer CO, O2
Plant Fire Brigade 15-18 ft.
Equipment
Electrical Shorting
Corrosive Gas Damage
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Table 6.4: Example Fire Protection System (FPS) Response Time Parameters
Time Line
Minutes 1 3 5 10 15 20 25 30 45
FPS Systems
A DETECTION SYSTEM
Detect Fire
Alarm Notification
Evacuation
B EMERGENCY CONTROL
SYSTEM (ECS)
Automatic Shutdown
of Hydraulic/Heat
Transfer Fluid Pumps
C AUTOMATIC FIRE
SUPPRESSION SYSTEMS (1) (2) (3) (1) Operation and Control
(2) Suppression
$$$VMWO1MRJSVQIH0$TIVJSVQERGI1FEWIH$JMVI$TVSXIGXMSR
(3) Extinction
D FIRE BARRIER SYSTEMS Maintain integrity -

Compartment fire/smoke exposure
Penetration
Structural Support
E MANUAL FIRE FIGHTING
Plant Fire Brigade
Public Fire Department
$:$Ò$75
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Given: Source Target
Specific Intensity Impact
Scenario Levels Levels
Target
Tolerance
Point 3
Target
Tolerance Structure Major Failures
Point 2
Structure Minor Failures
Target
Tolerance Equipment H Major Damage
Point
Equipment HMinor Damage
People HMajor Injuries

Thermal
Exposures Non-Thermal People HMinor Injuries
Exposures
Time Line, mins

3 5 10 25 45
Detection Automatic Compartment Barrier

Event Tree Alarm Suppression Integrity Maintained
FPS Notification Manual Fire
Systems Fighting Successful
Evacuation
Emergency
Control
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A B C D E
I n itia tin g F ire D e tec tio n A u to m a tic C o n t ro l R o o m P la n t F ire B ran ch
F ire and E CS S u p p re s sio n F ir e B a r r ie r s B r ig a d e B ran ch L in e C o n se q u e n c e
O ccu rs S u cc e ss fu l S u c c e s sfu l S u c c e ss fu l S u c c e s sfu l I.D . P ro b a b ility L e v e ls
1
2
YES
0 .0 6 7 3
F ire s /Ye a r
A d e fin e d 5
fir e s ce n a r io NO
6
in p ro d u ct io n
a re a 7
0 1 H 5 10 25 45
T im e , m in u te s
NOTE: E C S = E m e rg e n c y C o n tro l S y ste m
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Will Respond (Activate)

Prior to Critical Conditions P = 1.0
Will Not Respond (Activate)
Probability Prior to Critical Conditions P = 0
Selection
Uncertain Response P>0, P<1.0
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P = 1, Yes - System will respond prior to critical conditions
Probability
1 P > 0, P < 1 - Probability of responding to additional
set of scenarios, assumptions
P = 0, No - System will not respond
Uncertainty
0 Bandwidth
Yes No
Some Uncertainty Factors
H Fire Growth Rate

H Ventilation Rate
H Obstructions
H Other
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.9 0 P ro b a b ility S y s te m W ill R e s p o n d a t 2 M in
P r o b a b ility
o f D e t e c t io n
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T im e
1 .0 P = 1 , R e s p o n s e 3 m in
P = .9 5 , R e s p o n c e ~ 2 .1 0 m in
.9 0
P = .7 5 , R e s p o n s e ~ 1 .8 5 m in
.8 0
.5 0
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1 2 3 4 5
T im e , m in u t e s
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FPS
Specific Performance Performance
Scenario Success Requirement
(P S)
P S = P RE x P OLA x P OPR
1.0 P RE = P DAB x P SRT 2.0 P OLA = 1 - P DT 3.0 P OPR = 1 - P FO D

RE OLA OPR
Response Effectiveness On-Line O perational
(P RE ) Availability Reliability
P OLA P OPR
And
1.1 P DAB = P SU x P CP x P OU 1.2
DAB SRT
Design Application System Response
Basis Effective Time Effectiveness
(P DAB )
And
1.1.1 1.1.2 1.1.3
Suitability Capacity Duration
:27 SR1PMRI$EZEMPEFMPMX]
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tivjsvqergi$izepyexmsr$qixlshspsk}0$JTW$jyrgxmsrep$jempyvi$tsxirxmep$mw$fvsoir$hs{r$ew$jspps{w>
Unavailable due to being "off-line"

during emergency demand
FPS System
Functional Failure
Operational failure on demand
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tivjsvqergi$wyggiww$xvii$jveqi{svo0$2$Ew$tviwirxih$mr$xlmw$jmkyvi0$xli$stivexmsrep$jempyvi$sj$xli
w}wxiq$vipexih$xs$rsx$fimrk$sr1pmri$mw$lerhpih$yrhiv$xli$w}wxiq$hs{rxmqi$tvsfefmpmx}2
Xli$firijmx$sj$i|eqmrmrk$sr1pmri$ezempefmpmx}$,SPE-$ew$er$mrhmzmhyep$vipmefmpmx}1fewih
tivjsvqergi$qiewyvi$mw>
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tsxirxmepw2
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FPS
Performance Performance
Requirement Success
(P S) PS = PRE x POLA x POPR
AND
1.0 PRE = PDAB x PSRT 2.0 P OLA = 1 - PD T 3.0 POPR = 1 - P FOD

RE OLA OPR
Response Effectiveness On-Line Operational
(PRE) Availability Reliability
(POLA) (P OPR)
AND
1.1 P DAB = P SU x P CP x P DU 1.2
DAB SRT
Design Application System Response System Down-Time Operational Failure
Basis Effective Time Effectiveness Probability On-
(P DAB) PDT Demand Probability
(PFOD)
AND
1.1.1 1.1.2 1.1.3
Suitability Capacity Duration
Is Not Subsystem(s) Mission Time
On-Line Fail on Demand Failure Probability
Time-System is
On-Line
Time-System
Response
Time-System
Duration
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Jmk2$:26;> SPE$Kirivep$Jeypxw
FAULTS
FPS is down (off-line) due

to inspection, maintenance,
and testing (IMT) activities
OLA
Performance
Indicators
FPS is down (off-line)

due to false (i.e., nuisance,
spurious activation) trips
and unscheduled repairs
FPS is down (off-line)

due to "other conditions"
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2.0
FPS On-Line
Availability (POLA) POLA = 1 - PDT
Note: Convert to Success
Tree Logic
Note: Fault Tree Probability of FPS PDT = P2.1 + P2.2 + P2.3
Logic Downtime PDT Downtime
OR
2.1 2.2 2.3
System Is Down System Is Down System Is Down
(Off-Line) Due to IMT (Off-Line) Due to False Due to "OTHER"
(Inspection, Maintenance, Trips and Unscheduled Conditions
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FPS Subsystem(s) Fails Minimize 'Hidden'

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Related Failures
OPR
Performance
Indicators
Design Related Common- Minimize Design &

Cause Failure (CCF) Occurs Operation Related
(i.e., loss of power supply, CCFs
loss of water supply)
External CCF Failures Minimize the Effect

Occur (i.e., mechanical of External (i.e., outside
damage, vibration, of normal design and
corrosion, etc.) operation) CCF Potential
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Defined System Meets
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Convert to
Success Tree
Operational Failure
On-Demand Probability
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Fault Tree
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3.1 3.2
Common-Cause
System Failure Failure (CCF) Outside of
On-Demand Normal Design
OR
3.1.1 3.1.2
Subsystem
Subsystems
Design Related
Failure-
CCF
On-Demand
OR
Failure-On-Demand Mission Time

Probability (i.e., Duration)
Failure Probability
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FPS
Perform ance
Performance
Requirem ent S uccess
(P S) P S = P RE x P O LA x P OR
1.0 P RE = P DAB x P S RT 2.0 P OLA = 1 - P DT 3.0 P OP R = 1 - P F OD

RE OLA OPR
Response Effectiveness On -Line Operational
(P R E) Availability Reliability
P OL A P OPR
AND
1.1 P DAB = P SU x P CP x P D U 1.2
DAB SRT
Design Application System Response
Basis Effective Time Effectiveness
(P DAB )
AND NO TE: FPS M ission Tim e

1.1.1 1.1.2 1.1.3 Failure Prob ability
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Components Fails Fails Fails
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System X
Operational Operational Reliability
Requirements (POPR) POPR = 1- PFOD
Convert from
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System X
System Probability of
Failure Definition Failure on Demand PFOD = P3.1 FOD + P3.2FOD + P3.3FOD + P3.4FOD
(PFOD)
Fault Tree
Analysis (FTA) OR
3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4

Detectors Control Unit Local Alarms Power
Fail Fails Fail Fails
AND 3.2.1 OR AND
Control
Unit #1 3.3.1
3.1.1 3.1.2 Fails 3.3.2 3.4.1 3.4.2
Detector Detector Alarm DC
Relay AC
D1 D2 Bell 3 Battery
X3 Power
Fails Fails Fails Power
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Shut down Flammable Liquid Pumps
ESS Shut down Ventilation Systems
Shut down Electrical Power
Active Shut down Production Equipment
ECS
Examples:
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ESO Activate Suppression Systems
Activate Emergency Lighting or
Power System
Initiate Emergency Evacuation
Alarms
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Input
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Relay
Modules
ESO
Interface
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E CS
System Y
Perform ance Success
Probability P S = 1 - P F OD
(P S )
Convert from System Y

FTA to STA Probability of
Failure on Dem and
(P FO D ) P FO D = P FOD -1 + P F OD -2 + P FO D-3 + P FOD -4
OR
1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
Subsystem Y 1 Subsystem Y2 Subsystem Y3 Com mon
Input Signal Control U nit Output (final Cause Failure
Failure Failure requirem ent) (C CF)
(P FO D ) (P F OD ) Failure Failure
(P F OD ) Potential
Define boundary conditions T1

a nd interfaces between
fire detection signals
and E CS control logic Evaluate both
internal design
related CC F
FTA = Fault Tree Analysis (i.e., loss of power)
STA = Success Tree A nalysis and external
CCF potentials
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Requirement:
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Smoke Exhaust Fan
OR
3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4

Failure of Mechanical Electrical Other
Subsystem/ Sensor or Relay Failure of Failure of CCF
Component Module to Emergency Emergency Failure
Failures Startup Emergency Exhaust Fan Exhaust Fan Potentials
Exhaust Fan
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Liquid Line
Vapor Line
Directly Upstream
of Loading Hose
Connections
UV/IR
Flame Detection
System
ESD
Manual Operation Controller
of Dry Chemical
System
Truck Loading
Manual Operation Local Alarm
of ESD Button
at Loading Rack Emergency Shutdown Valve
Alarm
In Control 75'-80' Upstream
Room of Loading Rack
Manual Operation
of ESD Station
~80' From
Loading Rack Plant
Fire Brigade
Response Alarm
ESD Operation
at Control ESD = Emergency Shutdown Device
Room
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Fire Suppression System
(i.e., sprinkler system or
Scenario-Specific water spray system)
Input Performance Success
Probability
(P S) P S = PRE x POLA x P OPR
AND
1.0 2.0 3.0

RE OLA OPR
(P RE) Availability Reliability
POLA POPR
AND
DAB SRT Plant Records

Design Application System Response System
Basis Effective Time Effective Downtime T1
(PDAB)
Fire Modeling
Suitability or Testing
System Activation
Capacity Time for
Specific Scenario
Duration
Industry Standards/
Practices
Hydraulic Analysis
Modeling
Jmk2$:27=> Wyttviwwmsr$W}wxiq$Ò$STV$Izepyexmsr$Jveqi{svo
O PR
O perational
T1 R eliability
P robability
P O PR P O PR = 1 - P FO D
P robability of
System X Failure
on D em and
P FO D
OR
3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4

Input: C ontrol/D istribution O utput: C C F P otentials
Subsystem Subsystem Subsystem Pow er Supply Failure
X1 X2 X3 Freezing Weather
F ailure Failure Failure Earthquake
Flood
OR OR
3.2.1 3.2.2 3.3.1 3.3.2 3.3.3

T2
D istribution D istribution Supply N ozzle N ozzle *
P iping C om ponent P iping C om ponents F ailure
F ailure Failure F ailure F ailure
C heck Valves
C ontrol Valves * T he num ber of nozzle failure w hich
w ould constitute a "System " failure
should be defined
F ailure D ata Sources: P lant R ecords/Experience
P ublished F ailure D ata
E ngineering Judgem ent
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Input:
Subsystem X1
T2 Failure
OR
3.3.2
3.3.1
Electrical
Tank Pump
Failure Failure
AND OR
Tank Tank Level Electrical Power

Failure Indicator/Alarm Fire Pump Loss
OR AND* AND
Tank Tank Flow Pump No. 1 Pump No. 2 Electrical Electrical

Leakage Obstruction Failure Failure Feed No. 1 Feed No. 2
Failure Failure Failure Failure
Same as
Pump No. 1
OR
Contributing
failures can
Pump Cut-In Pump in Mechanical Electrical be expanded
Pressure System Off Position Failure of Driver further
Fails Pump Failure
AND
Pump left in Pump Off, * Assumes Pump No.2

Off Position Trouble is a redundant
(Human Error) Alarm Fails backup pump
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TYFPMWLIH
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Define Functional Fire Barrier Z1
Requirement Failure Probability
Based on Specific (P FOD) P FOD = P 1.0 + P 2.0
Scenario Input
OR
1.0 2.0
DAB Not Effective OPR
Design Operation
Tightness on Demand
Heat Transfer Failure
Duration
2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4

Ducting/ CCF: Other
Subsystem Door Penetration
Ventilation Localized
Failures Failure Seal(s)
Damper(s) Wall
Failure
Failure Failures
Component Closing Latching

Blocked Other
Failure Device Mechanism
Open
Failure Failure
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OPR
Operational
Reliability POPR = 1 - PFOD
POPR
PFOD
Probability of PFOD = PFOD - SYS + FFOD - EXT
Failure-On-Demand
OR
PFOD - SUBSYSTEMS + PFOD - INTERNAL PFOD - CCF EXTERNAL
System Common Cause Failure (CCF)
Failure-On-Demand Outside (External) of
PFOD - SYS Normal Design
OR
PFOD - SUBSYSTEMS PFOD - CCF INTERNAL
Subsystem(s) Subsystem(s) Design
Failure-On-Demand (Internal) Related
PFOD - SUBSYSTEMS CCF
CCF Potentials
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Subsystem CCF
Potential Subsystem(s)
Power Failure Design (Internal)
Related CCF P FOD-CCF = P 1.0 x P2.0 x P 3.0
AND
1.0 2.0 3.0

AC Battery Manual
Power Backup Emergency
Failure Failures Generator
OR OR
T1 Failure Failure Failure Failure

of of of of
Battery Supervision Operator Generator
Alarm and to Turn On
Plant Experience Correction Generator
(Power Outages)
Plant
Plant Experience Human Experience
Published Error Published
Failure Data Factors Failure
Data
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AC Power
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Off-Site Detection System Electrical
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System
OR
Note: Common Cause Electrical Distribution Plant

Failure, Information from Plant Substation X Substation X
from Utility Company to Detection Control unavailable
Plant Experience Panel Unavailable
Transmission line failure

Switch failure
Circuit breaker failure
Control/relay failure
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Failure-On- Demand
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System CCF Outside (External)
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P F OD-SYS P FOD-CCF External
OR
3.1.1 P FOD-Subsystems 3.1.2

Subsystem(s) Subsystem(s)
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CCF P FO D-CCF-Interna l
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3.1.1.1 3.1.1.2 3.1.1.3
Subsystem Subsystem Subsystem
X Y Z
Probability of
Failure-On-Demand
Documentation
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TMQ$Ò$6 64 9
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TMQ$Ò$8 54 9
TMQ$Ò$9 54 9
TMQ$Ò$: 5: 8
TMQ$Ò$; 56 7
TMQ$Ò$< 64 9
TMQ$Ò$= 59 9
$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$
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KTE$A$57=385$A$$$727=
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Failure Rate
or
Failure Probability PIM G PA
A djusted value = 100 | M
Above M ean
PIM G PA
Adjusted value = 1.0 | M
(M ) M ean Value
PIM G PA
Adjusted value = 0.10 | M
Below M ean
Low Average High PIM

PIM G PA PIM GPA PIM GPA Q uality
[<2,5] Range [>3.5] Score
[2.5 to 3.5]
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ewwyqi$evi$jsv$e$jmvi$hixigxmsr$hizmgi2
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JEMPYVI$HEXE
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hiqerhw
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Wmrgi$mr$syv$i|eqtpi$xli$hixigxmsr$TMQ$KTE${ew$iwxmqexih$ex$727=0${i${syph$wipigx$xli$qier$
TJSH$zepyi$mr$syv$izepyexmsr$ew$wls{r$mr$Jmk2$:2952
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P FO D
0.03
M ean P FO D
Detection
3.0 x 1018 PIM GPA = 3.39
3.0 x 10 19
Low Average High PIM

PIM GPA PIM GPA PIM GPA Quality
[<2,5] Range [>3.5] Score
[2.5 to 3.5]
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52 Jsvgiw$mhirxmjmgexmsr$erh$izepyexmsr$sj$TMQw$xlex${mpp$ejjigx$xli$jempyvi$vexi$sv$jempyvi
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62 Tvszmhiw$e$w}wxiqexmg$erh$gsrwmwxirx$wyttsvx$xssp$jsv$irkmriivmrk$nyhkiqirx$erh$e
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wtigmjmg$ors{pihki2
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wls{r2$Izmhirx$mr$Jmk2$:296$mw$xlex$xli$ts{iv$wyttp}$vipmefmpmx}$mw$xli${ieo$pmro$fewih$sr$xli
ehnywxqirx$jegxsv2$Epxlsykl$rsx$ehhih$mr$Jmk2$:296$figeywi$sj$wtegi$pmqmxexmsrw0$xli$hexe
vijivirgi,w-$erh$hexe$ehnywxqirx$qixlshw${syph$fi$ehhih$xs$xlmw$x}ti$sj$xefpi2
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3.0
Operational P O PR = 0.95
Reliability
P O PR = 1 - P FO D
Probability of
System Failure
P FO D = 0.05
On-Demand
P F OD
3.1 P = 0.05
Failure of Automatic
Heat Detection
System
OR
-6
3.1.1 P = 1 x 10 3.1.2 P = 0.01 3.1.3 P = 0.01 3.1.4 P = 0.033
Detectors Control Unit Evacuation Power
Fail Fails Alarms Fail Fails
AND OR A ND
3.1.1.1 3.1.1.2 3.1.3.1 3.1.3.2 3.1.4.1 3.1.4.2 DC

Detector Detector Alarm Alarm AC
D1 D2 Horns Amplifier Battery
Power
Fails Fails Fails Fails Power
Fails
Fails
Probability D ata Table
HIWGVMTXMSR QIER
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JEMPYVI
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sr$iqivkirg}$hiqerh
7252526 Hixigxsv$H6 Jempw$xs$xverwqmx$e$wmkrep 42445$,5- |$5 42445
sr$iqivkirg}$hiqerh
72526 Gsrxvsp$yrmx$erh Jemp$xs$vigskrm~i$erh 4245$,6- |$5 4245
ewwsgmexih viwtsrh$xs$hixigxmsr$mrtyx
wmkrepmrk${mvmrk wmkrep
7252725 Epevq$lsvrw Jemp$xs$stivexi 42445$,5- |$5 42445
,6-
7252726 Epevq$eqtpmjmiv Jemp$xs$stivexi 4245$ |$5 4245
,6-
7252825 EG$ts{iv EG$ts{iv$xs$w}wxiq$jempw 4277$ |$5 4277
7252826 HG$fexxiv} HG$fexxiv}$fegoyt$xs 42445$,5- |$544 4254
w}wxiq$jempw
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xli$stivexmsrep$viuymviqirxw0$xli$ryqfiv$sj$gsqtsrirx$jempyviw$qywx$fi$mhirxmjmih2$Jsv$i|eqtpi0
{mxl$hixigxmsr$w}wxiqw0$mx$mw$mqtsvxerx$xs$mhirxmj}$xli$hixigxmsr$hizmgi$jempyvi$qshiw$,wii$Jmk2$$
:297-$erh$vigskrm~i${lmgl$qshiw$sj$jempyvi$ejjigx$xli$jyrgxmsrep$tivjsvqergi$viuymviqirxw>
¨ Jempyvi$sj$e$wmrkpi$hixigxmsr$hizmgi
¨ Jempyvi$sj$qsvi$xler$sri$hixigxmsr$hizmgi
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¨ Jempyvi${mxlmr$e$ÔzsxmrkÕ$sv$ÔehhviwwefpiÕ$hixigxmsr$w}wxiq
Jmk2$:297> Wsqi$Hixigxmsr$Tivjsvqergi$Gsrwmhivexmsrw
1
Failure of a single detector
X device fails system.
Detector Control
Panel
Fire Scenario Area
1 2 Failure of more than one

X X detector device may be
needed to fail system.
Control
Panel
1 2
Zone 1 X X
Control Cross-zoned detector systems
requiring operation of one
Panel
3 4 detector in each zone.
Zone 2 X X
X X
Voting Voting system requiring
System 2 out of 3 detectors to
operate system.
Control
X Panel
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Supply Supply
1 2
Pump Pump Pump

A B C
West Underground East

Loop Loop Loop
End (with defined

performance
User
requirements)
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Performance Requirement: Underground

Only one leg of the Loop
loop is required. Failure
AND
West Loop East Loop

Fails Fails
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Performance Requirement: Water Supply

Only one water Failure
supply is needed
AND
Water Supply Water Supply

1 Fails 2 Fails
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Failure Probability = 0.10 | 0.10 = 0.01 Failure Probability = 0.10 + 0.10 = 0.20
Reliability = 1.0 - 0.01 = 0.99 Reliability = 1.0 - 0.20 = 0.80
Performance Performance
Requirem ent: Water Supply Requirem ent: Water Supply
Only one w ater Failure Two water Failure
supply is needed supplies are
AN D needed OR
0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
Water Supply Water Supply Water Supply Water Supply
1 Fails 2 Fails 1 Fails 2 Fails
Failure Probability = 0.15 | 0.15 = 0.0225 Failure Probability = 0.15 + 0.15 = 0.30
Reliability = 1.0 - 0.0225 = 0.98 Reliability = 1.0 - 0.30 = 0.70
Performance Perform ance
Underground U nderground
Requirem ent: Requirem ent:
Loop Loop
Only one leg of the Two legs of the
Failure Failure
loop is required loop are needed
AND OR
0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15
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Fails Fails Fails Fails
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Fault Tree
Fault Tree
Logic Models
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INADVERTENT
RELIABILITY OPERATION
Reliability = 1.0 - 0.10 = 0.90 Inadvertent Operation = 0.01
Probability of
Alternative 1: Probability of Inadvertent
One detector Operational Failure Operation
activates ECS
0.10 0.01
Detector 1 Detector 1
Fails to Operate False Activation
On-Demand (i.e., no emergency
demand)
18
Reliability = 1.0 - 0.20 = 0.80 Inadvert Operation = .01 x .01 = 1.0 x 10
Alternative 2:
Two detectors Probability of Probability of
must operate to Operational Failure Inadvertent Operation
activate ECS
OR AND
0.10 0.10 0.01 0.01
Detector 1 Detector 2 Detector 1 Detector 2
Fails to Operate Fails to Operate False False
On-Demand On-Demand Activation Activation
Reliability = 1.0 - 0.25 = 0.75 Inadvert Operation = 0.01 x 0.001 = 1.0 x 1019
Alternative 3:
One detector and Probability of Probability of
suppression system Operational Failure Inadvertent Operation
must operate to
activate ECS
OR AND
0.10 0.15 0.01 0.001
Detector 1 Suppression Detector 1 Suppression
Fails to Operate System Fails False System False
On-Demand to Operate Activation Activation
On-Demand
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Fire Notification,
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Systems (ECS)
Emergency Shutdown Process Equipment
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Manual Activation of
Suppression Systems
Assist In Evacuation
Post-Fire Incident
Manual Intervention
Response
Immediate use of
Incipient
Fire Extinguishers,
Fire Fighting
Small Hose Lines
Response by Plant
Structural Fire Emergency Response Team,
Suppression Fire Brigade, Public
Fire Department
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Probability of Failure
of Manual
Intervention Response -
Emergency Conditions
OR
Human Failure Failure of Equipment Interface

to Perform (Examples)
Functional Failure of a Fire Detection
Requirement Pull Box
Failure of an ESD (Emergency
Shutdown Device)
Failure of a Manual Suppression
T1 Activation Device
Failure Data
Plant Experience
from Proof Testing
Published Failure
Rate Data
Jmk2$:2:7> I|eqtpi$Pskmg$Xvii$Jveqi{svo$Ó$Qeryep$Mrxivzirxmsr$Jempyvi
Probability of Failure of
Manual Intervention
T1 (Human Failure)
to Perform
Functional PHF = P1.0 + P2.0 + P3.0
Requirement
OR
1.0 2.0 3.0

Design Not Human
Application Available Response
Basis Not Failure
Effective
Availability Human Error

to Perform Probability Under
Tasks Emergency
Probability of Fire / Conditions
Smoke Environment
Impeding Access to
Manual Emergency
Control Equipment
Fire Modeling
Engineering Judgment
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Hiwmkr$Ettpmgexmsr$Fewmw$,HEF-
F}$qshipmrk$xli$i|tswyvi$tvsjmpi$,m2i20$xiqtivexyvi0$vehmerx$liex0$wqsoi-$xli$tvsfefmpmx}$sj$$
xli$tivwsr$ewwmkrih$iqivkirg}$xewow$lezmrk$gpiev$eggiww$xs$xli$iqivkirg}$iuymtqirx$ger$fi
izepyexih2$Xlmw$mw$e$ziv}$mqtsvxerx$gsrwmhivexmsr$erh$sri$xlex$mw$sjxir$szivpssoih2
Jsv$i|eqtpi0$mj$syv$mrmxmexmrk$jmvi$wgirevms$mw$e$tssp$jmvi$mrwmhi$e$tvshygxmsr$fymphmrk$erh$xli
iqivkirg}$wlyxhs{r$hizmgi$,IWH-$mw${mxlmr$xli$evie$sj$jmvi$svmkmr$erh$i|tswyvi$~sri0$xlir${lex$
mw$xli$tvsfefmpmx}$sj$xli$stivexsv$egxmzexmrk$xli$IWH${mxlmr$e$hijmrih$xmqi$pmqmxC$Xli$tvsfefmpmxmiw
hizipstih$xs$wyttsvx$xlmw$izepyexmsr$vip}$sr$xli$mrxikvexmsr$sj$hixivqmrmwxmg$jmvi$qshipmrk
,i|tswyvi$irzmvsrqirx$zivwyw$xmqi-0$stivexsv$tvsgihyviw$erh$xvemrmrk0$erh$irkmriivmrk$$
nyhkiqirx2
Ezempefmpmx}
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fimrk$rsxmjmih$zme$psgep$sv$viqsxi$epevqw$sj$xli$iqivkirg}0$ew$tviwirxih$mr$Jmk2$:2:82
Mr$qer}$gewiw0$tperxw$lezi$hs{rwm~ih0$lezi$yrhivksri$wxejj$xyvrszivw0$lezi$qsvi$$
yrsggytmih$eview$xler$mr$xli$tewx0$erh$ew$e$viwypx0$xli$ezempefmpmx}$sj$tivwsrrip$xs$hixigx$mrgmtmirx
wxeki$jmviw0$egxmzexi$iqivkirg}$gsrxvsp$w}wxiqw0$erh$stivexi$qeryep$wyttviwwmsr$w}wxiq$figsqiw
uyiwxmsrefpi2$Xli$tvsfefmpmxmiw$hizipstih$xs$wyttsvx$xlmw$izepyexmsr$evi$ywyepp}$hivmzih$jvsq$sr
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NOT PNA = P1.0 + P2.0

AVAILABLE
PNA = .30 + .01 = .31
OR
1.0 P = .30 2.0 P = .01

Operator Not Operator Alarm
In Immediate Notification
Area or System Fails to
Control Room Alert Operator
(Estimated at of Emergency
30% of time)
Plant Staffing/ Plant Experience -

Policy/Records Proof Testing
Published Failure
Data
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xs$tivjsvq$ijjigxmzip}${mxlmr$e$kmzir$xmqi$jveqi2$Figeywi$sj$xli$qer}$jegxsvw$xlex$gsrxvmfyxi$xs
lyqer$ivvsv0$xlmw$ger$tswi$sri$sj$xli$qswx$yrgivxemr$tvsfefmpmxmiw2$Ors{pihki0$xvemrmrk0
i|tivmirgi0$xli$efmpmx}$xs$tivjsvq$yrhiv$iqivkirg}$,termg$qshi-$gsrhmxmsrw$ger$zev}$jvsq$tivwsr
xs$tivwsr2
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¨ Mhirxmjmgexmsr$sj$xli$vipizerx$xewow$xs$fi$tivjsvqih$,sv0$mj$xli$tperx$mw$ex$xli$hiwmkr
wxeki0$xs$fi$tivjsvqih-$f}$stivexsvw
¨ Vitviwirxexmsr$sj$iegl$xewo$f}$wsqi$qixlsh0$wygl$ew$fvieomrk$hs{r$xli$xewo$mrxs
gsqtsrirx$tevxw$xs$mhirxmj}$tswwmfmpmxmiw$jsv$ivvsv$erh$tsmrxw$sj$mrxivegxmsr${mxl$tperx
iqivkirg}$iuymtqirx
¨ Jsv$mrmxmep$uyerxmjmgexmsr0$ywi$sj$hexe$sv$iwxmqexiw$hivmzih$jvsq$lmwxsvmgep$vigsvhw$erh
hexefewiw$,tperx$wtigmjmg0$mrhywxv}$wtigmjmg0$sv$tyfpmwlih$kirivmg$hexe-
¨ Jsv$ehnywxqirx$sj$lyqer$ivvsv$tvsfefmpmx}$hexe0$xli$ywi$sj$tivjsvqergi$qshmjmgexmsr
jegxsvw$xlex$xeoi$mrxs$eggsyrx$wxviww0$i|tivmirgi0$xvemrmrk0$erh$xli$uyepmx}$sj$qer1
qeglmri$jegxsvw2$E$gsrwmwxirx$w}wxiqexmg$ettpmgexmsr$qixlsh0$irkmriivmrk$$
nyhkiqirx0$erh$i|tivx$stmrmsr$evi$ywih
Xli$mppywxvexmsr$mr$Jmk2$:2:9$tvszmhiw$e$tvsjmpi$sj$lyqer$ivvsv$jempyvi$vexi$zevmexmsr$jsv$tvi1
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gsrhmxmsrw22
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Jmvi$Mrgmhirxw
H um an
Error R ate
Post-Ignition
Pre-Ignition
Stress Level
Bored O ver-excited
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ryqfiv$sj$lyqer$ivvsv$hexe$wsyvgiw2$Tswx1mkrmxmsr$lyqer$ipiqirx$jempyvi$tvsfefmpmxmiw${mpp
kirivepp}$verki$fix{iir$Pizip$6,f-$erh$xli$Pizip$5,f-$verki2$Mrwivxmrk$qeryep$mrxivzirxmsr$lyqer
ivvsv$tvsfefmpmxmiw$mrxs$JTW$tivjsvqergi$pskmg$xviiw$ger$lezi$e$pevki$mqtegx$sr$xli$xst$izirx0
{lmgl$mw$szivepp$w}wxiq$tivjsvqergi$wyggiww2
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Operator (Human Element)
Failure Probability
0.5 (a)
CASE 1: Unplanned emergency occurrence requiring
0.4 quick decision and immediate procedural
action by the operator
0.3 (b)
0.2 (a)
CASE 2: Operational errors caused by routine
0.1 (c) oversight; checking equipment,
(b) misreading instrumentation, etc.
.01
.001 (c) (a)

CASE 3: Critical error in operator judgment
.0001 in ignoring operational policy and
(b) engaging in a dangerous activity
.00001
.000001 (c)
General Human Element Quality:

(a) POOR Poor-fair knowledge, experience, training
(b) FAIR Fair-good knowledge, experience, training
(c) GOOD Good-very good knowledge, experience, training
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ehnywx$lmwxsvmgep$lyqer$ivvsv$tvsfefmpmxmiw$,m2i20$wipigxmsr$sj$e$tvsfefmpmx}${mxlmr$xli$gewi$pizip
verkiw$wls{r$mr$Jmk2$:2::-2$Mj$xli$qeryep$mrxivzirxmsr$lyqer$ivvsv$ewtigx$lew$e$wmkrmjmgerx$mqtegx
sr$JTW$tivjsvqergi$wyggiww0$xlir$hixempih$lyqer$vipmefmpmx}$erep}wmw$qe}$fi${evverxih2
Jmk2$:2:;> I|eqtpi$sj$Wsqi$Lyqer$Ivvsv$Gsrxvmfyxmrk$Jegxsvw
M1.1.2
Employee/Operator
Fails to Activate
Emergency Control System
Device Within Critical Time
OR
M1.1.2.1 M1.1.2.2 M1.1.2.3 M1.1.2.4

Not Trained in OTHER:
Proper Emergency High Stress
Multiple Tasks Incapacitated
Response Situation
From Incident
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:2;26$$Jmvi$Jmklxmrk
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qiewyviw$mrgpyhi>
¨ Viwtsrwi$xmqi
¨ Viwsyvgiw$,tivwsrep0$iuymtqirx-
¨ Ijjigxmziriww
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Plant Fire Brigade

Specific Probability of
Fire Scenario Successful Response
(PS)
AND
1.0 2.0
Plant fire brigade is Fire brigade successfully
notified within 1 min extinguishes fire prior to
following establishment the occurrence of any
of the design basis fire structural impacts
AND
2.1 2.2 2.3

Fire brigade Fire brigade Fire brigade
responds to area of includes minimum suppresses fire
fire origin in full four trained fire exposure within
turnout gear within fighters and an 20 min following
10 min following Incident notification
alarm notification Commander
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¨ Xmqi$xs$eglmizi$xli$tivjsvqergi$sfnigxmzi
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liex0$wqsoi$mrxirwmx}-$ex$xli$wxevx$sj$jmvi$jmklxmrk$ijjsvxw2$Mr$xli$Jmk2$:2:<$i|eqtpi0$xli$$
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52 Jmvi$fvmkehi$riihw$xs$fi$rsxmjmih${mxlmr$5$qmryxi$jspps{mrk$mrmxmexmsr$sj$xli$hiwmkr1fewmw
jmvi$izirx2
62 Viwtsrwi$mrxs$xli$evie$sj$jmvi$svmkmr0$mr$jypp$xyvrsyx$kiev${mxl$jmvi$jmklxmrk$iuymtqirx
{mxlmr$54$qmr2
72 Viwtsrwi$mrzspziw$e$qmrmqyq$sj$8$xvemrih$jmvi$jmklxivw$erh$er$mrgmhirx$gsqqerhiv2
82 Jmvi$fvmkehi$mw$ijjigxmzi$mr$wyttviwwmrk$xli$jmvi${mxlmr$64$qmr2
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qerriv2
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Wm~i56
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qexivmep$mw$rsx$xli$gsqtpixi$erh$sjjmgmep$tswmxmsr$sj$xli$Rexmsrep$Jmvi$Tvsxigxmsr$Ewwsgmexmsr$sr$xli$vijivirgih$wyfnigx0${lmgl$mw$vitviwirxih$srp}$f}$xli$wxerhevh$mr
mxw$irxmvix}2
:2< $$TIVJSVQERGI1MRXIKVMX]1FEWIH$VIPMEFMPMX]$PIZIPW
Ew$wxexih$mr$xli$fikmrrmrk$sj$Wigx2:290$mr$vmwo1mrjsvqih0$tivjsvqergi1fewih$jmvi$tvsxigxmsr
wxyhmiw$xlivi$evi$kirivepp}$xlvii$ettvsegliw$jsv$uyerxmj}mrk$JTW$stivexmsrep$vipmefmpmx}>
52 Lmwxsvmgep$vipmefmpmx}$hexe
62 Jeypx$xvii$erep}wmw$,JXE-
72 Tivjsvqergi1mrxikvmx}1fewih$vipmefmpmx}$pizipw
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Jmk2$:2;4> I|eqtpi$Tvmqev}$JTW$Tivjsvqergi$Wyggiww$Jegxsvw
FPS P S=0.92
Performance
Scenario-Specific Performance
Success
Input PS = PRE x POLA x POPR Requirements
(P S)
AND
1.0 PRE = PDAB x PSRT = 0.98 2.0 P OLA = 1 - PDT = 0.99 3.0 POPR = 1 - PFOD = 0.95
RE OLA OPR
(PRE) Availability Realiability
POLA P OPR
Quantification
Methods
Note: Probability numbers Historical Fault Tree Analysis Performance-

added for example Reliability as described in Integrity-Based
purposes only Data Sect. 6.5 Reliability Levels
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52 Hixempih$vizmi{$sj$xli$JTW$jsv$gsrjsvqergi${mxl$ettpmgefpi$hiwmkr$gshiw0$wxerhevhw0
tvegxmgiw2
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82 Hizipstmrk$er$JTW$vipmefmpmx}$iwxmqexi$fewih$sr$mxiqw$5$xs$7$efszi$erh$irkmriivmrk
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RJTE$wxerhevhw0$tvszmhi$zevmsyw$pizipw$sj$JTW$hiwmkr$gvmxivme2$Mr$ehhmxmsr0$wsqi$mrhywxv}
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mrjsvqexmsr$mw$tvszmhih$sr$JTW$tivjsvqergi$jegxsvw$wygl$ew>
52 W}wxiq$viwtsrwi$xmqi$,WVX-$hiwmkr$kymhergi$erh$uyerxmjmgexmsr$qixlshw
62 Sr1pmri$ezempefmpmx}$,SPE-$mwwyiw$wygl$ew$hiwmkr$jegxsvw0${lmgl$gsyph$qmrmqm~i$hs{rxmqi
72 Jempyvi$vexi$hexe$vijivirgiw$jsv$w}wxiqw0$iuymtqirx0$gsqtsrirxw
82 GGJ$ijjigxw$,m2i20$gsvvswmsr0$jvii~mrk0$ixg2-
92 Vipexmsrwlmt$sj$w}wxiq$vipmefmpmx}$zivwyw$zevmsyw$hiwmkr$stxmsrw
:2 Ijjigx$sj$mrwtigxmsr0$qemrxirergi0$erh$xiwxmrk$sr$JTW$vipmefmpmx}
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FPS D esign Reliability Bandwidth
Level 1:
Code compliant 0.95 0.99
High PIM
quality score
Good IMT
program
Level 2:
Code compliant 0.85 0.94
Average PIM
quality score
Average IMT
program
Level 3:
Code deficiencies 0.50 0.84
Low PIM
quality score
Below average
IM T program
NOTE: PIM = performance integrity m easures

IM T = inspection, maintenance, testing
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Quantifying Fire Protection System Performance Success Probability

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Quantifying Fire Protection System Performance Success Probability

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Gletxiv$:

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:27 $$Sr1Pmri$Ezempefmpmx} :Ò7=

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APPRAISAL ANALYSIS PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT

3 Loss Scenario 7 Risk Estimation

Historical Conditional Probability of

NOTE: ETA = Event Tree Analysis FTA = Fault Tree Analysis

Scenario Initiating Event FPS Performance Success Likelihood of Fire or

<AND> STEP 5 STEP 7

Likelihood of Fire Consequences Annualized

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Initiating Fire & Explosion Event Tree

Detection Emergency Automatic Propagation Manual Fire

System System Performance

Success Tree Analysis (STA)

Note: Use of 'AND' GATE

Correlation between FTA and STA

System Not Responsive Response Effectiveness

System Not On-Line On-Line Availability

Primary RE OLA OPR

Specific FPS Functional Risk Tolerance

Unavailable due to being off-line

FPS Functional Failure on demand due to a

Failure to operate over a defined

System System is on-line at the time

Mission Time System functions over a required

Specific FPS Functional Risk Tolerance

Specific FPS Functional

FPS detection device Suitability

FPS capacity not Capacity

FPS duration not Duration

DAB = Design Application Basis

Specific FPS Functional

1.0 P RE = P DA B x P SRT 2.0 P OLA = 1 - P D T 3.0 P OPR = 1 - P FO D

Tim e-S ystem is

Design Is Effective, P = 1.0

FPS automatic activation Automatic Response Time

FPS manual activation Manual Response Time

Specific FPS Functional

D FIRE BARRIER SYSTEMS Maintain integrity -

People HMajor Injuries

Time Line, mins

 Detection  Automatic  Compartment Barrier

Hixigxmsr IGW Eyxsqexmg

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Will Respond (Activate)

Some Uncertainty Factors

H Fire Growth Rate

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Detection Automatic Compartment Barrier