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3 Loss Scenario 7 Risk Estimation

1 Program Development & Comparison
Objectives With Risk Tolerance
6 Fire Protection System
4 Initiating Event (FPS) Performance
Risk Likelihood Success Probability
2 8 Cost/Benefit
Tolerance Analysis of Risk
Criteria 5 Exposure Profile
Modeling Reduction Alternatives
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MODIFIERS VULNERABILITY

Fire Incident
Fire Barriers Outcomes Consequences
Fire Detection
& Emergency Suppression
Shutdown

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Fire Event Protection Systems at Target
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Fire Barriers Branch Line Consequences Risk Level
Fire and ESS Suppression Brigade
Successful ($) ($/Year)
Occurs Successful Successful Successful I.D. Probability
0.80 $ 10,000.00 $ 510.00
1 0.051
0.95 0.75
2 0.0095 $ 20,000.00 $ 190.00
YES 0.20 0.75
0.067 3 0.0024 $ 50,000.00 $ 120.00
Fires/Year 0.25
0.25
4 0.0008 $ 10,000,000.00 $ 8,000.00
0.80
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Flamm able NO 0.05 0.70
Liquid Fire 6 0.00047 $ 20,000.00 $ 9.40
In Lab Area 0.20 0.60
7 0.00012 $ 50,000.00 $ 6.00
0.30
0.40
8 0.00008 $ 20,000,000.00 $ 1,600.00
0 1-3 3 - 10 10 - 20 20 - 60 Total Annualized $ 10,462.40
Time, minutes Risk ($/Year)
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C R IT E R I A

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M A K IN G
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Problem
Risk Appraisal

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Model Elements Risk Analysis

Interpret the
Results

Analyze the
Options

Risk Assessment

Select the
Best Solution

Monitor Actions Risk Monitoring

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A P PR A ISA L A N A LY SIS PER FO R M A N C E A SSE SSM E N T

Program 3 L oss Scen ario R isk E stim ation

1 D evelopm ent 7 & C om parison
O b jectives
W ith R isk Tolerance
Fire Protection
4 In itiatin g E vent 6 S ystem s Perform ance
L ikelih ood
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2 Tolerance 8 A n alysis of R isk
C riteria
5 E xposure Profile
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Detail General
Needed Resource
Investment

Second-Order Risk Assessment

High High

First-Order Risk Assessment

Moderate Moderate

Risk Ranking

Low Low

Low Moderate High

Fire & Explosion Risk Complexity

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