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Item Description
India may not reach 100GW solar power target by 2022:
Crisil report
標題＊
1
Title
India will touch 78-80GW solar power capacity against
21.65GW now by fiscal 2023, says a Crisil report
國家區域＊ India
2
Country
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新聞日期＊ 13/08/2018
5
Date
6 商情內容＊ Mumbai: India will not be able to achieve its
Content ambitious target of generating 100GW solar power by
2022, ratings agency Crisil said. In a report,
Crisil’s industry research arm said that in the best-
case scenario, the country will touch 78-80 GW,
against the current capacity of 21.65 GW.

Crisil expects an additional 56-58GW of solar capacity

addition between fiscals 2019 and 2023. While this is
a vast improvement from the 20GW added during 2014-18,
it still falls short of the National Solar Mission
target by a fifth. (See chart) A safeguard duty on
solar modules from China and Malaysia, which took
effect this month and will continue for two years, is
expected to slow capacity addition.

“We are more confident that projects with the Solar

Energy Corp. of India (SECI) will be executed faster;
their projects are better able to deal with evacuation
concerns (i.e. connection to the national grid),”
said Rahul Prithiani, director, Crisil Research in an
interview.

Individual states have also set aggressive targets

under their respective solar policies. While 7.3 GW is
under construction, based on already allocated
schemes, another 1.7 GW is expected to be tendered and
allocated over fiscal 2019 based on upcoming tenders
under various state policies as on July, the report
shared exclusively with Mint said. “However, state
government projects are not as well-funded and they
have less access to cheap financing,” Prithiani
added.

A key area of concern is the rooftop solar segment.

The solar mission’s target for the rooftop segment—
using the rooftops of commercial and industrial units
to generate their own power and depend less on the
grid—is 40 GW by 2022. Crisil expects this figure to
be not more than 8 GW by 2023, because the cost of
power here is expected to be far higher than from the
grid.

“There are execution and counter-party risks to the

rooftop segment, and that’s why we’re expecting the
big shortfall here,” Prithani said. “Unless the
rooftop solar segment is supported with a firm battery
market and the legal enforcement of contracts because
developers run the risk of the host establishment not
honouring a contract when tariffs change, the rooftop
market will struggle.”

Industry experts believe that the safeguard duty will

raise capital costs by 15-20%, adding 30-40 paise per
unit to bid tariffs so developers can maintain the
same rates of return on their investments.

India achieved a record low solar power tariff of ₹

2.44 per unit in May 2017. In July, tariffs again
 touched ₹ 2.44 per unit in an auction conducted by
SECI.

However, uncertainty regarding the duty is making

developers wary. Acme Solar, which had quoted the
lowest tariff of ₹ 2.44 a unit, has about 2000 MW of
projects where construction is either underway or yet
to begin. On 7 August, Acme told Mint that it would
pull out of these projects if it has to bear the
additional burden of the safeguard duty.

States are also seeing tariffs rise. At a July auction

by Uttar Pradesh for 1,000MW, the lowest bid came in
at ₹ 3.48 a unit. The state cancelled these auctions.
SECI also cancelled 950 MW of solar tenders in July,
unhappy with the tariffs that developers were bidding.

“The government must be live with the outcome of bid

price; it should go ahead with these projects even if
tariffs are higher than what they like,” Prithani
said. “It’s hard to say which tariff is
unreasonable; it’s hard to predict whether module
prices will go up or down in the future. If bids are
scrapped, you’ll further delay the overall
programme.” India is the world’s third-largest
energy consumer after the US and China. Its renewable
energy programme is ambitious where as it stands now.
https://www.livemint.com/Industry/HEugjBRI2zsNDyVzB2E1
資料來源＊
7 kJ/India-may-not-reach-100GW-solar-power-target-by-
Resources
2022-Crisil.html
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