Journal of Quality in Maintenance Engineering

Optimal replacement policy based on the effective age of the system for a deteriorating repairable
system with multiple vacations
Wenfeng Wu, Jianshe Song, Kexia Jiang, Hao Li,
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Wenfeng Wu, Jianshe Song, Kexia Jiang, Hao Li, "Optimal replacement policy based on the effective age of the system
for a deteriorating repairable system with multiple vacations", Journal of Quality in Maintenance Engineering, https://
doi.org/10.1108/JQME-06-2014-0036
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 Optimal replacement policy based on the effective age of
the system for a deteriorating repairable system with
multiple vacations

Purpose –This paper aims to study the maintenance and replacement problem for a
deteriorating repairable system with multiple vacations of one repairman. It proposes a new
replacement policy and establishes corresponding replacement models.
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Design/methodology/approach –It is assumed that the repair after the system failures is not
“as good as new” and the repairman is in multiple vacations. The reaching of the effective age
of the system is assumed to be mutually stochastic at working state, waiting state for repair
and being repaired state. Under these assumptions, a replacement policy T based on the
effective age of the system is applied. The long-run expected downtime per unit time and the
long-run expected profit per unit time as objective functions are chosen, respectively. By
using geometric process theory and renewal process theory, the mathematic models have been
established and the explicit expressions of the long-run expected downtime per unit time and
the long-run expected profit per unit time are derived, respectively.

Findings –The optimal replacement policy T * can be calculated and determined by the
computer to minimize the expected downtime or maximize the expected profit. The minimum
expected downtime per unit time and maximum expected profit per unit time can also be
determined.
Originality/value –This replacement policy and mathematic models can be used as reference
to the failure system maintenance and replacement.

Keywords: Reliability, Geometric process, Multiple vacations, Replacement policy

Article Type: Research paper

1. Introduction
The research of repairable system is a basic and important topic in reliability theory and
 its application, see Ascher and Feingold (1984) and Cao (2006) for details. In the earlier
literatures, a perfect repair policy was commonly studied in repairable system by assuming
that the failed system would be repaired ‘as good as new’ after failures. However, a lot of
systems are deteriorating as the time goes by. It is more reasonable to assume that the
successive working times of the system after repair will become shorter and shorter, while the
consecutive repair times after failures will become longer and longer. Then the working times
and the repair times can be modeled by geometric process (GP), see Lam (1988b, 1992, 2013)
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for details. Currently, more and more research has been conducted to deteriorating repairable
system and many research results have been derived. The deteriorating repairable system,
where the repairman might take a sequence of vacations, is one of the most important systems
with strong engineering background. By using geometric process theory and renewal process
theory, their reliability indexes were derived by Hu (2009), Wang (2012), Jain (2013) and
Yuan (2011), the optimal replacement policies of repairable system with repairman single
vacation were conducted by Wang (2012) and Jia (2006), and the optimal replacement
policies of repairable system with repairman multiple vacations were conducted by Jain
(2013), Yuan (2011), Jia (2009) and Yuan (2011).
The replacement policy of repairable system with multiple vacations of one repairman is
a popular research topic. It is of great theoretical and realistic significance. In existing
literatures on deteriorating repairable systems with multiple vacations, a lot of work has been
conducted to study the replacement questions, where the failure number or the working age
are applied as the optimal replacement policies. However, little work has been conducted to
consider the optimal replacement policy based on the effective age of the system,
comparatively. Compared with the failure number and the working age, the optimal
replacement policy based on the effective age of the system is more complicated and more
generalized. If the effective age of the system is applied as the optimal replacement policy, the
system maintenance and replacement may be a complete cycle or an incomplete cycle. Then it
must be discussed what the system state is when the effective age of the system is reached.
Generally, the system may be working state, waiting state for repair or being repaired state. In
a sense, the replacement policy based on the effective age of the system can cover the policy
based on the failure number and that based on the working age. Thus it is more reasonable
 than the existing policies. In this paper, a new replacement policy is proposed for a
deteriorating repairable system with multiple vacations of one repairman. It is assumed that
the repair after failures is not ‘as good as new’ and the repairman is in multiple vacations. The
reaching of the effective age of the system is assumed to be mutually stochastic at working
state, waiting state for repair and being repaired state. Under these assumptions, a replacement
policy is considered based on the effective age T of the system. The long-run expected
downtime per unit time and the long-run expected profit per unit time as objective functions
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are chosen, respectively. By using geometric process theory and renewal process theory, the
mathematic models are established and the explicit expressions of objective functions are

derived. Then the optimal replacement policy T * can be determined to minimize the
expected downtime or maximize the expected profit.
This paper is structured as follows. The coming section introduces the geometric
processes. Section 3 puts forward the assumptions according to the optimal replacement
policy. Section 4 establishes the mathematic models and derives the explicit expressions of
the long-run expected downtime per unit time and the long-run expected profit per unit time,
respectively. Conclusion remarks are offered in the last section.

2. Definitions
This section introduces the definitions of geometric processes from Lam (1988b) firstly.

Definition 1. Assume ξ and η are two random variables. For any real number α , if

P{ξ ≥ α } > P{η ≥ α }

then ξ is called stochastically bigger than η , denote as ξ > st η . Similarly, if

P{ξ ≥ α }<P{η ≥ α }

then ξ is called stochastically smaller than η , denote as ξ < st η .

Definition 2. Assume that { X n , n = 1, 2,L} is a sequence of independent nonnegative

random variables. If the cumulative distribution function of X n is given by Fn (t ) = F ( a n −1t )

for n = 1, 2,L with a > 0 , { X n , n = 1, 2,L} is called a geometric process. Obviously, the

following conclusions can be obtained:

 if a > 1 , then { X n , n = 1, 2,L} is stochastically decreasing, namely X n > st X n +1 for

n = 1, 2,L ,

if a < 1 , then { X n , n = 1, 2,L} is stochastically increasing, namely X n < st X n +1 for

n = 1, 2,L ,

if a = 1 , then { X n , n = 1, 2,L} is a renewal process. Therefore, geometric process is a

generalization of renewal process.

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λ
if EX 1 = λ , then EX n = , for n = 2,3,L .
a n −1
3. Assumptions
The following assumptions are assumed to hold in what follows.
Assumption 1. At time t = 0 , the system is new and installed. A replacement of the system
takes place at time t = T . The system is replaced by a new but identical one when a
replacement is required, and the length of a replacement time is negligible.
Assumption 2. The system starts to work at time t = 0 , and it is maintained by a repairman.
The repairman takes his first vacation after the system has started. After the vacation of the
repairman ends, there will be two cases.
(a) If the system has failed and is waiting for repair, the repairman will repair it
immediately until the repair is completed. The failed system cannot be repaired ‘as good as
new’ after failures. After the completion of the repair, the repairman will take his second
vacation.
(b) If the system is still working, the repairman will take his second vacation
immediately.
This operating policy continues until a replacement takes place.
Assumption 3. The time interval between the completion of the ( n − 1 )th repair and that of

the n th repair of the system is called the n th cycle of the system, for n = 1, 2,L . Denote the

working time and the repair time of the system in the n th cycle as X n and Yn ( n = 1, 2,L ),

respectively. Denote the length of the i th vacation during the n th cycle as {Z ni , n = 1, 2,L} .
 The cumulative distribution functions of X n , Yn , and Z ni are given by Fn (t ) , Gn (t ) , and

H n (t ) , respectively, where Fn (t ) = F (a n −1t ) , Gn (t ) = G (b n −1t ) , and H n (t ) = H (d n −1t ) with

t ≥ 0 , a > 1 , 0 < b < 1 , and d >1 , n = 1, 2,L . Then { X n , n = 1, 2,L} and {Z ni , n = 1, 2,L}

are stochastically decreasing while {Yn , n = 1, 2,L} is stochastically increasing. Denote

EX 1 = λ , EY1 = µ , and EZ11 = ν , respectively.

Assumption 4. X n , Yn , and Zin , ( n = 1, 2,L and i = 1, 2,L ) are statistically independent.

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Assumption 5. The working reward rate of the system, repair cost rate of the system, reward
rate of the repairman, cost rate incurred in the waiting for repair, and cost incurred for a

replacement are denoted as C1 , C2 , C3 , C4 , and C5 , respectively.

Assumption 6. When the system reaches its effective age T , the system may be at different
state. The probabilities of the system states are assumed as follows. The probability at

working state is p , the probability at waiting state for repair is q , and the probability at

being repaired state is r . It is assumed that p + q + r = 1 .

4. Models
4.1 System analysis

Denote N as the failure number of the system within its effective age [0, T ] , and it is

a nonnegative integer random variable. Denote η n as the times of vacations of the repairman

during the n th cycle of the system, for n = 1, 2,L , N . Denote M as the times of vacations

of the repairman during the ( N + 1) th cycle of the system. A possible progressive figure of

the system is given in Fig. 1.

 T
N N +1
Z11 Z12 LL Z1η1 Z 1N Z N2 LL Z ηNN Z 1N +1 Z N2 +1 LL Z NM+1
L
X1 Y1 XN YN X N +1

(a) The effective age of the system is reached at working state.

T
N
Z11 Z12 LL Z1η1 Z 21 Z 22 LL Z 2η2 Z 1N Z N2 LL Z ηNN
L
X1 Y1 X2 Y2 XN

(b) The effective age of the system is reached at waiting state for repair.
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T
N
Z11 Z12 LL Z1η1 Z 21 Z 22 LL Z 2η2 Z 1N Z N2 LL Z ηNN
L
X1 Y1 X2 Y2 XN YN

(c) The effective age of the system is reached at being repaired state.

Fig. 1 A possible progressive figure of the system

Let T1 be the time before the first replacement, Tn be the time interval between the

( n − 1 )th and n th replacement, for n = 2,3,L . The process {Tn , n = 1, 2,L} can form a

renewal process. The time interval between two adjacent replacements is the length for a
replacement cycle.

Lemma 1. The probability of η n is given by

+∞
P(η n = m) = ∫ [S m -1 (t ) − S m (t )]dF (a n -1t ) ， m = 1, 2,L , n = 1, 2,L , N
0

and

+∞ ∞
Eη n = ∫ [∑ S m (t )]dF ( a n -1t ) ，where S m (t ) is the cumulative distribution function of
0
m =1

∑Z
i =1
i
n . (Jia, 2009)

Denote Z n as the total vacation time of the repairman during the n th cycle of the

system, for n = 2,3,L . Then it is given by

 ηn
Z n = ∑ Z ni ， n = 1, 2,L , N .
i =1

From Lemma 1 and the properties of conditional expectation,

ηn ηn ∞ m
ν
EZ n = E (∑ Z ni ) = E[ E (∑ Z ni | η n )] = ∑ [∑ ]P(ηn = m)
i =1 i =1 m =1 i =1 d n −1
， n = 1, 2,L , N .
ν ∞
ν Eηn
=
d n −1
∑ mP(η
m =1
n = m) =
d n −1

Let event A = {the effective age T of the system is reached at working state}, event
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B = {the effective age T of the system is reached at waiting state for repair}, and event C =
{the effective age T of the system is reached at being repaired state}.
(1) The effective age T at working state
If the effective age T of the system is reached at working state, the system is in its

( N + 1) th cycle, see Fig. 1(a). Hence

N N N N
A = {∑ Z n + ∑ Yn < T < ∑ Z n + ∑ Yn + X N +1}
n =1 n =1 n =1 n =1

where I A = p if event A occurs. Denote ERA and ELA as the long-run expected

downtime per unit time and the long-run expected profit per unit time within the effective age

[0, T ] of the system, respectively. From above assumptions, the expected downtime ERA is

given by
N N
ERA = E (∑ (Z n − X n ) + ∑ Yn )
n =1 n =1
N N N
(1)
= E (∑ Z n ) − E (∑ X n ) + E (∑ Yn )
n =1 n =1 n =1

The expected profit ELA is given by

 N N N N
ELA = C1 E (∑ X n + T − ∑ Z n − ∑ Yn ) − C2 E (∑ Yn ) +
n =1 n =1 n =1 n =1
N N
C3 E (T − ∑ Yn ) − C4 E ∑ (Z n − X n ) − C5
n =1 n =1
N N
(2)
= (C1 + C4）E (∑ X n）− (C1 + C2 + C3 )E (∑ Yn ) −
n =1 n =1
N
(C1 + C4 )E (∑ Z n ) + (C1 + C3 )T − C5
n =1

(2) The effective age T at waiting state for repair

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If the effective age T of the system is reached at waiting state for repair, the system is
in its N th cycle, see Fig. 1(b). Hence
N −1 N −1 N N −1
B = {∑ Z n + ∑ Yn + X N < T < ∑ Z n + ∑ Yn }
n =1 n =1 n =1 n =1

where I B = q if event B occurs. Denote ERB and ELB as the long-run expected

downtime per unit time and the long-run expected profit per unit time within the effective age

[0, T ] of the system, respectively. The expected downtime ERB is given by

N N
ERB = E (T − ∑ X n ) = T − E (∑ X n ) (3)
n =1 n =1

The expected profit ELB is given by

N N −1 N −1 N N −1
ELB = C1 E (∑ X n ) − C2 E (∑ Yn ) + C3 E (T − ∑ Yn ) − C4 E (T − ∑ X n − ∑ Yn ) − C5
n =1 n =1 n =1 n =1 n =1
N N −1
(4)
= (C1 + C4 )E (∑ X n ) − (C2 + C3 − C4 ) E (∑ Yn ) + (C3 − C4 )T − C5
n =1 n =1

(3) The effective age T at being repaired state

If the effective age T of the system is reached at being repaired state, the system is in
its N th cycle, see Fig. 1(c). Hence
N N −1 N N
C = {∑ Z n + ∑ Yn < T < ∑ Z n + ∑ Yn }
n =1 n =1 n =1 n =1

where I C = r if event C occurs. Denote ERC and ELC as the long-run expected

downtime per unit time and the long-run expected profit per unit time within the effective age

[0, T ] of the system, respectively. The expected downtime ERC is given by

 N N
ERC = E (T − ∑ X n ) = T − E (∑ X n ) (5)
n =1 n =1

The expected profit ELC is given by

N N N N
ELC = C1 E (∑ X n ) − C2 E (T − ∑ Z n ) + C3 E (∑ Z n ) − C4 E ∑ (Z n − X n ) − C5
n =1 n =1 n =1 n =1
N N
(6)
= (C1 + C4 )E (∑ X n ) + (C2 + C3 − C4 ) E (∑ Z n ) − C2T − C5
n =1 n =1

4.2 Parameter calculation

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N N
Before the expected working time E (∑ X n ) , expected repairing time E (∑ Yn ) , and
n =1 n =1

N
expected vacation time E (∑ Z n ) are determined, the cumulative distribution probability of
n =1

the random variable N must be firstly calculated.

There is
n −1 n −1
P( N ≥ n) = P{∑ Z i + ∑ Yi + X n < T } ， n = 1, 2,L
i =1 i =1

Hence

P( N = n) = P( N ≥ n) − P( N ≥ n + 1) = H n (T ) − H n +1 (T )

n −1 n −1
with H n (T ) = P{∑ Z i + ∑ Yi + X n < T } = H n -1 (T ) * Gn −1 (T ) * F (a n −1T ) , where H n -1 (T ) and
i =1 i =1

n −1 n −1
Gn −1 (T ) are denoted as the cumulative distribution functions of ∑Z
i =1
i and ∑Y
i =1
i ,

respectively.
N
Then the expected working time E (∑ X n ) of the system within [0, T ] is given by
n =1

N N ∞ n
λ
E (∑ X i ) = E[ E (∑ X i | N )] = ∑ [∑ ]P{N = n}
i =1 i =1 n =1 i =1 a i −1
(7)
aλ ∞ 1 ∞
1
= ∑ (
1 − a n =1 a n
− 1)[ H n (T ) − H n +1 (T )] = λ ∑
n =1 a
n −1
H n (T )
 N
The expected repairing time E (∑ Yn ) of the system within [0, T ] is given by
n =1

N N ∞ n
µ
E (∑ Yi ) = E[ E (∑ Yi | N )] = ∑ [ ∑ ]P{N = n}
i =1 i =1 n =1 i =1 bi -1
(8)
bu ∞ 1 ∞
1
= ∑ ( n − 1)[ H n (T ) − H n +1 (T )] = µ ∑ n -1 H n (T )
1 − b n =1 b n =1 b

N
The expected vacation time E (∑ Z n ) of the system within [0, T ] is given by
n =1
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N N ∞ n
ν Eηi
E (∑ Z i ) = E[ E (∑ Z i | N )] = ∑ [∑ ]P{N = n}
i =1 i =1 n =1 i =1 d i −1
(9)
∞ n
Eη ∞
Eη
= ν ∑ [∑ i −1i ][ H n (T ) − H n +1 (T )]=ν ∑ n −n1 H n (T )
n =1 i =1 d n =1 d

4.3 Expected downtime under replacement policy T

Denote D (T ) as the long-run expected downtime per unit time under replacement

policy T . Then according to the renewal reward theorem (Ross, 1996), there is

Expected downtime within [0, t ]

D (T ) = lim
t →∞ t
expected downtime within a replacement cycle
=
expected length of a cycle
(10)
expected downtime within [0, T ]
=
T
ER ERA I A + ERB I B + ERC I C
= =
T T
From Eqs. (1), (3), (5), (7), (8), (9), (10), the long-run expected downtime per unit time
is
N N N N
D(T )=[E (∑ Z n ) − E (∑ X n ) + E (∑ Yn )]p + [T − E (∑ X n )](q +r )/T
n =1 n =1 n =1 n =1
∞ ∞
1 1
=pEz + pµ ∑ n -1
H n (T ) − λ ∑ n −1 H n (T ) + T (q +r )/T
n =1 b n =1 a

4.4 Expected profit under replacement policy T

Denote P(T ) as the long-run expected profit per unit time under replacement policy T ,

then there is
 Expected profit within [0, t ]
P(T ) = lim
t →∞ t
expected profit within a replacement cycle
=
expected length of a cycle
(11)
expected profit within [0, T ]
=
T
EL ELA I A + ELB I B + ELC I C
= =
T T
From Eqs. (2), (4), (6), (7), (8), (9), (11), the long-run expected profit per unit time is
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N N N
P(T ) = [(C1 + C4）E (∑ X n）− (C1 + C2 + C3 )E (∑ Yn ) − (C1 + C4 )E (∑ Z n ) +
n =1 n =1 n =1
N N −1
(C1 + C3 )T − C5 ]p + [(C1 + C4 )E (∑ X n ) − (C2 + C3 − C4 ) E (∑ Yn ) +
n =1 n =1
N N
(C3 − C4 )T − C5 ]q + [(C1 + C4 )E (∑ X n ) + (C2 + C3 − C4 ) E (∑ Z n ) − C2T − C5 ]r /T
n =1 n =1
∞ ∞
1 1
= (C1 + C4）λ ∑ n −1
H n (T ) − p(C1 + C2 + C3 )µ ∑ n -1 H n (T ) −
n =1 a n =1 b
∞
1
q (C2 + C3 − C4 ) µ ∑ n -2
H n (T ) + [r (C2 + C3 − C4 ) − p(C1 + C4 )]Ez +
n =1 b

pT (C1 + C3 ) + qT (C3 − C4 ) − rTC2 − C5 /T

In general, the optimal replacement policy T * of the system can be calculated and
determined analytically or numerically by the computer to minimize the long-run expected
downtime per unit time or maximize the long-run expected profit per unit time. The minimum
expected downtime per unit time and maximum expected profit per unit time can also be
determined.

5. Conclusions
On the assumption that the effective age of the system is given as a fixed value, the
long-run expected downtime per unit time and the long-run expected profit per unit time of
the system are the focuses that most scholars are interested in. Furthermore, Compared with
the failure number and the working age, the optimal replacement policy based on the effective
age of the system is more complicated and more generalized. When the effective age of the
system is reached, the system may be at working state, waiting state for repair or being
repaired state. Then this paper proposed a new replacement policy based on the effective age
of the system for a deteriorating repairable system with multiple vacations of one repairman.
 The mathematic models are established and the optimal replacement policy can be determined
to minimize the expected downtime or maximize the expected profit. It is more reasonable
and more practical than the existing models. This replacement model can be used as reference
to the failure system maintenance and replacement.

Acknowledgements
This research is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant
No. 61132008.
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