Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver.

3
www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/r
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/e
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company w
Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 3.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea
2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these numbers are
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Ste
Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (
growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock
Analysis Excel (Ver. 3.0)
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters
Company
Current Stock Price (Rs)
Face Value (Rs)
No. of Shares (Crore)
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore)
Key Financials - Trend
Parameters
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR)
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR)
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR)
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x)
Average Return on Equity (5-Years)
Average P/E (5-Years, x)
Latest P/E (x)
Warning! Excel can be a wond
the past. But it can be a weapon
to predict the future! So be ver
are getting into. Here, garbage
garbage ou
Details
PARAG MILK FOODS LTD
220 Remember! Focus on decisions
10.0 for disconfirming evidence
8.4
1,852
Please! It's your money. Pleas
Details
results of this excel cause yo
#DIV/0! designed this excel to aid your
#DIV/0! alone are responsible for your
#DIV/0! peacefully ever after! I am not
2.4 you to do the hard work by ana
13.7% your own. But I'd rather give yo
of a map, for you can confuse m
230.0
lose it all. All the
16.8
 Warning! Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze
the past. But it can be a weapon of mass destruction
to predict the future! So be very careful of what you
are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
garbage out.

Remember! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look

for disconfirming evidence. Calculate. Pray!

Please! It's your money. Please don't blame me if

results of this excel cause you to lose it all! I've
designed this excel to aid your own thinking, but you
alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live
peacefully ever after! I am not a sadist who wants
you to do the hard work by analyzing companies on
your own. But I'd rather give you a compass instead
of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and
lose it all. All the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation
Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies tend
to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios. Also
seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe balance
sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years earnings growth
rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the consistency in such
growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average" growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company, look
at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of operations
for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent earnings
and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing significant
volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad for
an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
PARAG MILK FOODS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Equity Share Capital - - 16 16 16 16 16 70 84 84
Reserves - - 23 42 65 81 108 291 540 628
Borrowings - - 325 413 491 556 545 389 261 291
Other Liabilities - - 109 134 119 169 264 253 426 415
Total - - 473 605 691 823 932 1,003 1,312 1,418

Net Block - - 205 246 243 242 291 345 334 397
Capital Work in Progress - - 29 7 6 37 28 28 21 20
Investments - - 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Other Assets - - 240 352 441 543 613 631 958 1,000
Total - - 473 605 691 823 932 1,003 1,312 1,418

Working Capital - - 131 217 322 374 349 378 531 585
Debtors - - 86 119 147 163 171 236 175 252
Inventory - - 117 139 139 190 212 272 429 438
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,618
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days - - 47 48 58 55 43 52 37 47
Inventory Turnover - - 6 6 7 6 7 6 4 4
Fixed Asset Turnover #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3.2 3.7 3.8 4.5 5.0 4.8 5.2 4.9
Debt/Equity #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 8.3 7.1 6.0 5.7 4.4 1.1 0.4 0.4
Return on Equity -1% 33% 26% 16% 26% 13% 1% 12%
Return on Capital Employed 7% 13% 10% 10% 13% 14% 6% 12%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
PARAG MILK FOODS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Trailing
Sales - - 658 900 925 1,088 1,444 1,645 1,731 1,955 2,160
% Growth YOY #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 37% 3% 18% 33% 14% 5% 13%
Expenses - - 608 817 842 1,006 1,331 1,494 1,639 1,758 1,928
Material Cost (% of Sales) #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 84% 80% 74% 81% 75% 77% 75% 64% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% expense items. For manufacturing firms,
Other Mfr. Exp #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1% 1% 1% 1% 7% 5% 9% 9% check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 6% 4% 6% 6% 3% 5% 11% 10%
Operating Profit - - 51 83 83 83 113 151 92 197 232
Operating Profit Margin #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 8% 9% 9% 8% 8% 9% 5% 10% 11%
Other Income - - -0 0 2 1 -4 -2 -11 9 10
Other Income as % of Sales #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% -0.3% -0.1% -0.6% 0.4% 0.5%
Depreciation - - 18 23 26 28 28 33 49 51 53
Interest - - 23 40 40 44 47 50 33 36 38
Interest Coverage(Times) #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 4 5
Profit before tax (PBT) - - 10 20 19 12 34 67 -1 119 150
% Growth YOY #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 110% -7% -36% 179% 95% -102% ###
PBT Margin #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 4% 0% 6% 7%
Tax - - 10 2 -2 -4 2 19 -6 32 40
Net profit - - -0 19 21 16 32 47 5 87 110
% Growth YOY #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -4707% 10% -23% 102% 47% -90% 1737%
Net Profit Margin #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 0% 4% 5%
EPS - - -0.1 3.3 3.6 2.7 5.5 6.7 0.6 10.4 13.1
% Growth YOY #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -4707% 10% -23% 102% 21% -92% 1737%
Price to earning 434.0 26.0 16.8
Price - - - - - - - - 245 270 220
Dividend Payout 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 88.0% 7.2%
Market Cap - - - - - - - - 2,057 2,266
Retained Earnings - - -0 19 21 16 32 47 1 81
Buffett's $1 Test 10.5

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth #DIV/0! 16.8% 16.1% 10.6%
PBT Growth #DIV/0! 42.9% 44.1% 51.4%
PBT Margin #DIV/0! 2.6% 2.7% 3.4%
Price to Earning 230.0 230.0 230.0 230.0

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7 to
10 years) growth numbers.
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 84% 80% 74% 81% 75% 77% 75% 64%
Change in Inventory #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 5% 2% 0% 5% 2% 4% 9% 0%
Power and Fuel #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Other Mfr. Exp #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1% 1% 1% 1% 7% 5% 9% 9%
Employee Cost #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Selling and Admin Cost #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 6% 4% 6% 6% 3% 5% 11% 10%
Other Expenses #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2%
Operating Profit #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -3% 4% 10% -2% 5% 2% -13% 10%
Other Income #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% 0%
Depreciation #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3%
Interest #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2%
Profit Before Tax #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 4% 0% 6%
Tax #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 2%
Net Profit #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 0% 4%
Dividend Amount #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 7% 6% 6%
Reserves #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 5% 7% 9% 10% 12% 29% 41% 44%
Borrowings #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 69% 68% 71% 68% 58% 39% 20% 21%
Other Liabilities #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 23% 22% 17% 21% 28% 25% 33% 29%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 43% 41% 35% 29% 31% 34% 25% 28%
Capital Work in Progress #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 6% 1% 1% 5% 3% 3% 2% 1%
Investments #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Assets #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 51% 58% 64% 66% 66% 63% 73% 71%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 18% 20% 21% 20% 18% 24% 13% 18%
Inventory #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 25% 23% 20% 23% 23% 27% 33% 31%
Cash & Bank #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 8% 3%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that a
raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Cash Flow Statement
PARAG MILK FOODS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) - - 11 34 16 46 88 59 -17 75 313
Cash from Investing Activity - - -74 -70 -57 -59 -29 -32 -87 -73 -481
Cash from Financing Activity - - 58 36 41 15 -58 -26 140 -12 192
Net Cash Flow - - -6 0 -0 2 1 1 36 -10 24
CFO/Sales #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 2% 4% 2% 4% 6% 4% -1% 4%
CFO/Net Profit #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -2663% 179% 77% 291% 273% 124% -350% 87%
Capex** 375 315 212 364 565 607 937 1156 1638 1238
FCF -375 -315 -201 -330 -549 -561 -849 -1,097 -1,655 -1,163 -7,094
Average FCF (3 Years) -1,305
FCF/Sales #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -30% -37% -59% -52% -59% -67% -96% -59%
FCF/Net Profit #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 48939% -1747% -2643% -3511% -2636% -2319% ### -1335%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Earnings Power Value (Bruce Greenwald)
Read the book - Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond by Bruce Greenwald (EPV is explained
Explanation - Earnings power value (EPV) is a technique for valuing stocks by making an assumption about the sustainability
capital but assuming no further growth. EPV formula = Adjusted Earnings / Cost of Capital

Company Name PARAG MILK FOODS LTD

Latest Year Ended Mar-18

Calculation of Normalized Earnings

(Rs Crore) Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Sales 1,088 1,444 1,645 1,731 1,955
EBIT 56 81 116 32 155
Less - Adjustment 0 0 1 0 1
EBIT (Adjusted) 56 81 116 32 154
EBIT Margin'(Adjusted) 5% 6% 7% 2% 8%
Tax Rate -30% 6% 29% 524% 27%
Earnings After Tax (Adjusted) 72 76 82 -136 113
Depreciation 28 28 33 49 51
Maintenance Capex (See Table Below) 573 864 1,115 1,620 1,192
Earnings After Tax (Normalized, A) -474 -760 -999 -1,707 -1,029
Reported Profit After Tax (B) 16 32 47 5 87

EPV Process (as per Greenwald's book, slightly modified) -

1. Start with operating earnings, i.e. EBIT. Adjust any one-time charges. I deduct 0.5% of reported EBIT as this adjustment
2. Apply a tax rate to the adjusted EBIT. I use the actual tax rate calculated from the Income Statement. After reducing this tax,
3. Add back Depreciation
4. Subtract Maintenance Capex
5. After these four steps, you arrive at Normalized Earnings
6. Divide this Normalized Earnings number by the Discount Rate to arrive at EPV. I use 12% discount rate/cost of capital.
7. Note that Greenwald's process as per his book is slightly more detailed than what I have used here

Calculation of Maintenance Capex

(Rs Crore) Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Fixed Assets (PPE) 242 291 345 334 397
Net Sales 1,088 1,444 1,645 1,731 1,955
PPE/Sales 0.22 0.20 0.21 0.19 0.20
Change in Sales 163 356 201 86 224
Total Capex 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238
Growth Capex 34 73 41 18 46
Maintenance Capex 573 864 1,115 1,620 1,192

Calculating Maintenance Capex, as per Greenwald's book -

1. Calculate the Average Gross Property Plant and Equipment (PPE) / Sales ratio over 5-7 years
2. Calculate current year’s increase in sales
3. Multiply PPE/Sales ratio by increase in sales to arrive at Growth Capex
4. Maintenance Capex = Total Capex figure from the cash flow statement minus Growth Capex calculated above
(Bruce Greenwald)
nd by Bruce Greenwald (EPV is explained Page 93 onwards)
ng an assumption about the sustainability of current earnings and the cost of
mula = Adjusted Earnings / Cost of Capital

EPV with Different Cost of Capital

Discount Rate EPV Net Cash** Total EPV Per Share
10% ### 4,327 -5,960 -709
12% -8,573 4,327 -4,246 -505
15% -6,858 4,327 -2,531 -301
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 1,852
EPV as % of Market Cap -229%

** Change the "Cash & Bank" number in "Balance Sheet" sheet

(Row #19) so that the correct number automatically reflects here

% of reported EBIT as this adjustment

Income Statement. After reducing this tax, we arrive at Adjusted Earnings After Tax

se 12% discount rate/cost of capital.

I have used here

er 5-7 years

wth Capex calculated above

 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

PARAG MILK FOODS LTD PARAG MILK FOODS LTD

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 4,618 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 (1,501) (1,340) Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 (1,726) (1,376) Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 (1,984) (1,412) Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 (2,183) (1,387) 4 FY21
5 FY22 (2,401) (1,362) Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 (2,641) (1,338) Sales 16% 6 FY23
7 FY24 (2,773) (1,255) PBT 44% 7 FY24
8 FY25 (2,912) (1,176) FCF 16% 8 FY25
9 FY26 (3,058) (1,103) 9 FY26
10 FY27 (3,210) (1,034) 10 FY27
10 -32,105 (10,337) 10
Intrinsic Value (18,501) Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 1,852 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV -110% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as th
number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the history
business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of r
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

PARAG MILK FOODS LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 4,618 Year 1-3 20%
(1,566) (1,398) Year 4-6 15%
(1,879) (1,498) Year 7-10 10%
(2,255) (1,605) Discount Rate 12%
(2,593) (1,648)
(2,982) (1,692)
(3,429) (1,737)
(3,772) (1,706)
(4,149) (1,676)
(4,564) (1,646)
(5,021) (1,616)
(75,308) (24,247)
Intrinsic Value (35,851)
Current Mkt. Cap. 1,852
Premium/(Discount) to IV -105%

use a normalized positive FCF as the starting

, without capex. Check the history of this
ng the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range
Company Name PARAG MILK FOODS LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/18 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 37.5 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 16.6 Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 1,561 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 1,852 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
PARAG MILK FOODS LTD
Mar/18

37.5
8.5
33.2

2,804
1,852

is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this num
resent, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
PARAG MILK FOODS LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) (1,305) (29,703)

1,852
Years 1-5 6-10 -1604%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (4,327)

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 (1,501) 15% (1,340)
2 (1,726) 15% (1,376)
3 (1,984) 15% (1,412)
4 (2,282) 15% (1,450)
5 (2,624) 15% (1,489)
6 (2,939) 12% (1,489)
7 (3,292) 12% (1,489)
8 (3,687) 12% (1,489)
9 (4,130) 12% (1,489)
10 (4,625) 12% (1,489)

Final Calculations
Terminal Year (4,718)
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows (14,513)
Terminal Value (15,189)
Total PV of Cash Flows (29,703)
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 1,852

Note: See explanation of DCF here

Valuation
LTD

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
PARAG MILK FOODS LTD
Particulars Mar/08 Mar/09 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15
Net Profit (Rs Crore) - - -0 19 21 16 32
Net Profit Margin #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0% 2% 2% 1% 2%
Return on Equity -1% 33% 26% 16% 26%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 270
Current P/E (x) 21.3
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 5,408
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 1,741
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 1,852

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
47 5 87 #DIV/0! 33%
3% 0% 4%
13% 1% 12%
 Intrinsic Value Range
PARAG MILK FOODS LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair
EPV -4,246 only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two ques
Dhandho -18,501 ### (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) Ca
Ben Graham 1,561 2,804 understand this business?
DCF -29,703 Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the less
Expected Return 1,741 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and usef
Current Market Cap. 1,852 be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "b
the-envelope".

Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong in

future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall i
with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus
decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming eviden
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ess simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
nd results. Great analysis is generally "back-of-
the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
PARAG MILK FOODS LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18
Sales 383 473 446 428 413 505 519 518 549 573
% Growth YOY 8% 7% 16% 21% 33% 14%
Expenses 352 439 464 390 384 454 460 463 490 515
Operating Profit 32 34 -18 39 29 51 59 55 60 58
Other Income 2 2 -13 2 2 4 2 4 2 1
Depreciation 10 12 11 17 12 13 14 12 14 13
Interest 10 5 8 9 7 8 11 10 10 8
Profit before tax 14 20 -51 15 11 33 37 37 38 39
PBT Margin 4% 4% -11% 4% 3% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
% Growth YOY -18% 71% -172% 147% 229% 16%
Tax 4 8 -10 -7 1 8 11 11 9 8
Net profit 10 12 -41 22 11 25 25 26 28 30
% Growth YOY 3% 108% -162% 18% 168% 22%
OPM 8% 7% -4% 9% 7% 10% 11% 11% 11% 10%
COMPANY NAME PARAG MILK FOODS LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CH
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 8.41
Face Value 10
Current Price 220.15
Market Capitalization 1851.78

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Sales 658.26 899.77 925.04 1088.25
Raw Material Cost 550.05 722.60 687.62 886.32
Change in Inventory 35.98 22.02 -3.09 50.45
Power and Fuel 25.07 37.54 37.74 38.5
Other Mfr. Exp 5 6.4 9.02 8.79
Employee Cost 19.15 29.93 39.8 47.8
Selling and admin 42.42 39.59 58.13 66.92
Other Expenses 1.89 3.13 6.23 7.68
Other Income -0.28 0.44 2.11 0.85
Depreciation 18.08 22.54 26.12 27.53
Interest 22.53 40 40.27 43.73
Profit before tax 9.76 20.51 19.13 12.3
Tax 10.18 1.61 -1.65 -3.66
Net profit -0.41 18.9 20.77 15.97
Dividend Amount

Quarters
Report Date Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17
Sales 383.47 472.84 446.07 428.36 412.88 504.51
Expenses 351.64 439.05 464.4 389.69 384.36 453.74
Other Income 1.6 2.31 -13.41 1.77 1.55 3.62
Depreciation 9.8 11.5 10.89 16.8 11.56 12.92
Interest 9.60 5.06 8.41 8.51 7.05 8.15
Profit before tax 14.03 19.54 -51.04 15.13 11.46 33.32
Tax 3.81 7.56 -9.96 -6.98 0.93 8.42
Net profit 10.22 11.99 -41.08 22.11 10.53 24.9
Operating Profit 31.83 33.79 -18.33 38.67 28.52 50.77

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Equity Share Capital 15.81 15.81 15.97 15.97
Reserves 23.22 42.11 65.28 81.24
Borrowings 325.24 412.75 490.93 556.23
Other Liabilities 109.05 134.3 119.25 169.44
Total 473.32 604.97 691.43 822.88
Net Block 205.11 246.17 243.38 241.91
Capital Work in Progress 28.53 7.04 6.28 37.38
Investments 0.01 0.01 0.31 0.31
Other Assets 239.67 351.75 441.46 543.28
Total 473.32 604.97 691.43 822.88
Receivables 85.6 118.66 147.29 163.47
Inventory 117.05 139.41 139.46 190.27
Cash & Bank 1.34 1.81 2.22 4.21
No. of Equity Shares 15810272 15810000 15969000 15969000
New Bonus Shares
Face value 10 10 10 10

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Cash from Operating Activity 10.92 33.87 15.96 46.33
Cash from Investing Activity -74.09 -69.5 -56.96 -59.19
Cash from Financing Activity 57.56 35.98 40.79 14.51
Net Cash Flow -5.61 0.35 -0.21 1.65

PRICE:

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 4.21 4.21 5.79 5.79 5.81 5.81
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

1444.14 1645.2 1730.74 1954.51
1,083.32 1,265.14 1,305.48 1,244.66
21.70 62.17 155.20 5.15
44.25 41.6 47.37 51.3
105.04 88.24 155.46 178.85
57.22 67.13 66.89 68.62
50.23 82.38 184.46 187.49
12.89 11.57 34.62 32.19
-4.17 -1.57 -10.52 8.74
27.53 33.39 48.96 50.6
46.92 49.57 33.31 35.73
34.27 66.79 -1.12 118.95
2.06 19.47 -5.87 31.9
32.21 47.32 4.76 87.06
4.19 6.29

Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18

519.28 517.84 549.42 573.48
460.47 462.73 489.68 515.37
2.49 4.35 1.78 1.47
13.64 12.47 13.55 13.36
10.83 9.63 10.26 7.63
36.83 37.36 37.71 38.59
11.35 11.21 9.44 8.15
25.48 26.15 28.27 30.43
58.81 55.11 59.74 58.11

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

15.97 70.42 83.89 83.89
 107.92 291.46 540.04 627.51
544.86 388.55 261.37 291.15
263.72 252.64 426.48 414.99
932.47 1003.07 1311.78 1417.54
291.11 344.74 333.59 397.01
28.28 27.82 20.65 20.4
0.31 0.01 0.01 0.51
612.77 630.5 957.53 999.62
932.47 1003.07 1311.78 1417.54
170.89 235.99 175.02 251.72
211.89 272.43 428.52 437.93
5.32 7.68 100.85 49.6
15969464 70415887 83887582 83887582
### 1,000.00 1,000.00
10 10 10 10

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

88.02 58.72 -16.57 75.46
-28.99 -31.61 -87.35 -73.3
-57.63 -26.43 139.87 -12.29
1.4 0.68 35.96 -10.12

245.213158 270.169048

5.81 7.04 8.39 8.39

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