Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver.

4
www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/r
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/e
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company w

Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 4.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea

2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these numbers are
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Ste
Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (
growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock Warning! Excel can be a wond
a deadly weapon if you wish
Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.0) careful of what you are gettin
garbage out. And if you need th
given stock, you m
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company DABUR INDIA LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 447 Remember! Focus on decision
Face Value (Rs) 1.0 evidenc
No. of Shares (Crore) 176.6
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 79,006

Key Financials - Trend

Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 11.9% Please! It's your money. Plea
cause you to lose it all! I've des
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) 16.0% but you alone are responsible
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) 14.8% ever after! I am not a sadist
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 0.2 analyzing companies on you
instead of a map, for you can co
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 29.3%
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 40.0
Latest P/E (x) 53.7
 Warning! Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be
a deadly weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
careful of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
garbage out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with a
given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

Remember! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming

evidence. Calculate. Pray!

Please! It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel
cause you to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
but you alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
ever after! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
analyzing companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
instead of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all. All
the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation

Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies tend
to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios. Also
seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe balance
sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years earnings growth
rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the consistency in such
growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average" growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company, look
at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of operations
for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent earnings
and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing significant
volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad for
an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
DABUR INDIA LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Equity Share Capital 87 87 174 174 174 174 176 176 176 176
Reserves 732 848 1,217 1,542 1,916 2,482 3,178 3,995 4,671 5,530
Borrowings 230 179 1,051 1,068 1,151 708 734 805 975 938
Other Liabilities 840 961 1,502 1,440 1,490 1,974 2,047 1,970 1,925 2,075
Total 1,889 2,076 3,944 4,224 4,732 5,338 6,134 6,946 7,747 8,719

Net Block 500 647 1,499 1,641 1,582 1,767 1,877 1,667 1,958 2,028
Capital Work in Progress 59 30 32 27 93 22 50 45 42 42
Investments 347 264 420 483 929 1,076 1,813 2,691 3,240 3,805
Other Assets 983 1,135 1,993 2,074 2,129 2,473 2,394 2,543 2,507 2,845
Total 1,889 2,076 3,944 4,224 4,732 5,338 6,134 6,946 7,747 8,719

Working Capital 143 174 491 634 639 499 347 573 582 769
Debtors 178 120 355 462 484 675 711 809 650 706
Inventory 375 426 709 824 844 973 973 1,097 1,107 1,256
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 23 13 32 32 29 35 33 38 31 33
Inventory Turnover 7 8 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6
Fixed Asset Turnover 5.6 5.2 2.7 3.2 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.7 3.9 3.8
Debt/Equity 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Return on Equity 48% 54% 41% 38% 37% 35% 32% 30% 26% 24%
Return on Capital Employed 45% 56% 30% 30% 31% 35% 33% 32% 29% 26%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
DABUR INDIA LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Trailing
Sales 2,805 3,390 4,078 5,305 6,169 7,075 7,827 7,869 7,614 7,722 8,438
% Growth YOY 21% 20% 30% 16% 15% 11% 1% -3% 1%
Expenses 2,339 2,767 3,304 4,415 5,186 5,916 6,511 6,350 6,102 6,101 6,670
Material Cost (% of Sales) 35% 31% 50% 53% 34% 34% 34% 50% 35% 36% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% expense items. For manufacturing firms,
Other Mfr. Exp 18% 17% 2% 1% 16% 16% 15% 1% 16% 16% check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 8% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 10% 10% 10% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 19% 21% 20% 20% 21% 21% 21% 16% 15% 14%
Operating Profit 466 623 774 890 983 1,159 1,316 1,518 1,511 1,621 1,767
Operating Profit Margin 17% 18% 19% 17% 16% 16% 17% 19% 20% 21% 21%
Other Income 47 48 59 57 109 128 158 217 296 287 304
Other Income as % of Sales 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.1% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.8% 3.9% 3.7% 3.6%
Depreciation 45 50 95 103 85 97 115 133 143 162 173
Interest 23 20 29 54 59 54 40 48 54 53 60
Interest Coverage(Times) 20 31 25 16 17 22 34 33 31 33 31
Profit before tax (PBT) 445 601 708 790 948 1,136 1,319 1,554 1,611 1,693 1,838
% Growth YOY 35% 18% 12% 20% 20% 16% 18% 4% 5%
PBT Margin 16% 18% 17% 15% 15% 16% 17% 20% 21% 22% 22%
Tax 54 100 139 146 183 219 251 300 330 335 366
Net profit 391 500 569 644 766 916 1,068 1,254 1,280 1,358 1,472
% Growth YOY 28% 14% 13% 19% 20% 17% 17% 2% 6%
Net Profit Margin 14% 15% 14% 12% 12% 13% 14% 16% 17% 18% 17%
EPS 2.3 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.4 5.3 6.1 7.1 7.3 7.7 8.3
% Growth YOY 28% 13% 13% 19% 20% 16% 17% 2% 6%
Price to earning 22.1 30.2 30.8 29.6 32.3 34.4 44.4 36.5 39.6 45.2 53.7
Price 50 87 101 109 142 181 270 260 288 348 447
Dividend Payout 38.7% 34.6% 35.2% 37.8% 34.2% 33.4% 33.0% 31.6% 31.0% 81.3%
Market Cap 8,652 15,092 17,536 19,060 24,733 31,504 47,480 45,782 50,669 61,360
Retained Earnings 240 327 369 401 504 610 716 857 883 254
Buffett's $1 Test 10.2

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth 11.9% 9.5% 4.6% -0.5%
PBT Growth 16.0% 13.3% 12.3% 8.7%
PBT Margin 17.7% 18.0% 19.1% 20.9%
Price to Earning 34.5 37.4 40.0 40.4

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7 to
10 years) growth numbers.
 Cash Flow Statement
DABUR INDIA LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 322 499 531 597 870 1,098 1,047 1,187 1,227 1,089 8,467
% Growth YoY 55% 6% 12% 46% 26% -5% 13% 3% -11%
Cash from Investing Activity -251 -230 -1,056 -261 -622 -105 -876 -730 -807 -541 -5,479
Cash from Financing Activity 1 -233 613 -198 -234 -804 -417 -374 -339 -574 -2,560
Net Cash Flow 72 36 88 138 13 190 -245 82 81 -27 428
CFO/Sales 11% 15% 13% 11% 14% 16% 13% 15% 16% 14%
CFO/Net Profit 82% 100% 93% 93% 114% 120% 98% 95% 96% 80%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF 7 287 167 32 263 161 -109 -451 -11 265 611
Average FCF (3 Years) -66
FCF Growth YoY 3913% -42% -81% 722% -39% -167% 315% -98% -2495%
FCF/Sales 0% 8% 4% 1% 4% 2% -1% -6% 0% 3%
FCF/Net Profit 2% 57% 29% 5% 34% 18% -10% -36% -1% 20%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Key Ratios
DABUR INDIA LTD
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Sales Growth 20.9% 20.3% 30.1% 16.3% 14.7% 10.6% 0.5% -3.2%
PBT Growth 35.1% 17.8% 11.7% 20.0% 19.7% 16.2% 17.8% 3.7%
Net Profit Growth 28.1% 13.7% 13.2% 18.9% 19.7% 16.6% 17.4% 2.1%
Dividend Growth 14.6% 15.4% 21.8% 7.2% 16.7% 15.1% 12.7% 0.1%
Operating Cash Flow Growth 54.8% 6.5% 12.4% 45.7% 26.3% -4.7% 13.3% 3.4%
Free Cash Flow Growth 3913.0% -41.9% -80.9% 722.2% -38.6% ### 314.6% -97.5%

Operating Margin 16.6% 18.4% 19.0% 16.8% 15.9% 16.4% 16.8% 19.3% 19.9%
PBT Margin 15.9% 17.7% 17.4% 14.9% 15.4% 16.0% 16.9% 19.7% 21.2%
Net Margin 13.9% 14.8% 14.0% 12.1% 12.4% 13.0% 13.7% 15.9% 16.8%

Debtor Days 23.1 12.9 31.8 31.8 28.6 34.8 33.1 37.5 31.2
Inventory Turnover 7.5 8.0 5.8 6.4 7.3 7.3 8.0 7.2 6.9
Fixed Asset Turnover 5.6 5.2 2.7 3.2 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.7 3.9
Debt/Equity 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Debt/Assets 12.2% 8.6% 26.6% 25.3% 24.3% 13.3% 12.0% 11.6% 12.6%
Interest Coverage (Times) 20.2 30.7 25.3 15.7 17.1 22.0 33.9 33.1 30.8
Return on Equity 47.7% 53.5% 40.9% 37.5% 36.6% 34.5% 31.9% 30.1% 26.4%
Return on Capital Employed 44.6% 55.7% 30.2% 30.3% 31.1% 35.4% 33.3% 32.2% 28.6%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 7 287 167 32 263 161 -109 -451 -11
Mar/18
1.4%
5.1%
6.0%
177.8%
-11.2%
###

21.0%
21.9%
17.6%

33.4
6.1
3.8
0.2
10.8%
32.9
23.8%
26.3%
265
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)

Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
25% Profit Margin Capital Allo
60%
Check for a rising trend an
20% 50% Numbers > 20% long term
has zero/marginal debt. C
40%
15%
30%
10%
20%
5% Check for a rising trend and/or consistency. 10%
Compare with a close competitor
0% 0%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/09 Jan/11 J

Operating Margin PBT Margin

Net Margin ROE

9,000
Revenue Revenue and Pr
40%
Check for a r
8,000 Check for a rising trend. 35% Compare gro
7,000 30%
6,000 25%
5,000 20%
4,000 15%
10%
3,000
5%
2,000
0%
1,000 -5% Jan/10 Jan/12
- -10%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17
Revenue Grow
Net Profit Gro

2,000 Profit Over Time Operating and

1,500 Check
Check for a rising trend. for positive numb
which are rising over tim
1,500 1,000
500
1,000
-
500 Jan/09 Jan/11
-500
- -1,000
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash F

Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Margin 17% 18% 19% 17% 16% 16% 17% 19% 20%
PBT Margin 16% 18% 17% 15% 15% 16% 17% 20% 21%
Net Margin 14% 15% 14% 12% 12% 13% 14% 16% 17%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
ROE 48% 54% 41% 38% 37% 35% 32% 30% 26%
ROCE 45% 56% 30% 30% 31% 35% 33% 32% 29%

Revenue & Profit Growth

Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Revenue Growth 21% 20% 30% 16% 15% 11% 1% -3% 1%
PBT Growth 35% 18% 12% 20% 20% 16% 18% 4% 5%
Net Profit Growth 28% 14% 13% 19% 20% 17% 17% 2% 6%

Revenue & Profit

Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Revenue 2,805 3,390 4,078 5,305 6,169 7,075 7,827 7,869 7,614
PBT 445 601 708 790 948 1,136 1,319 1,554 1,611
Net Profit 391 500 569 644 766 916 1,068 1,254 1,280

Cash Flows
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Cash Flow 322 499 531 597 870 1,098 1,047 1,187 1,227
Free Cash Flow 7 287 167 32 263 161 -109 -451 -11
%
Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
% Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the dates
% on the X-axis. The figures are
% for/as on the year ending date,
which for most Indian
% companies would be 31st
March of that year
%
%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

ROE ROCE

Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)

Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility.
Compare growth rates with a close competitor.

Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18

Revenue Growth PBT Growth

Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free Cash Flow

0 Check for positive numbers and
which are rising over time.
0
0

Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

0
0

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow

Mar/18
21%
22%
18%

Mar/18
24%
26%

Mar/18
7,722
1,693
1,358

Mar/18
1,089
265
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 35% 31% 50% 53% 34% 34% 34% 50% 35% 36%
Change in Inventory 1% 0% 3% 2% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1%
Power and Fuel 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Other Mfr. Exp 18% 17% 2% 1% 16% 16% 15% 1% 16% 16%
Employee Cost 8% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 10% 10% 10%
Selling and Admin Cost 19% 21% 20% 20% 21% 21% 21% 16% 15% 14%
Other Expenses 4% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 2% 2%
Operating Profit 14% 18% 13% 13% 17% 15% 16% 18% 19% 19%
Other Income 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4%
Depreciation 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2%
Interest 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Profit Before Tax 16% 18% 17% 15% 15% 16% 17% 20% 21% 22%
Tax 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4%
Net Profit 14% 15% 14% 12% 12% 13% 14% 16% 17% 18%
Dividend Amount 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 14%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2%
Reserves 39% 41% 31% 37% 40% 46% 52% 58% 60% 63%
Borrowings 12% 9% 27% 25% 24% 13% 12% 12% 13% 11%
Other Liabilities 44% 46% 38% 34% 31% 37% 33% 28% 25% 24%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 26% 31% 38% 39% 33% 33% 31% 24% 25% 23%
Capital Work in Progress 3% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0%
Investments 18% 13% 11% 11% 20% 20% 30% 39% 42% 44%
Other Assets 52% 55% 51% 49% 45% 46% 39% 37% 32% 33%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 9% 6% 9% 11% 10% 13% 12% 12% 8% 8%
Inventory 20% 21% 18% 20% 18% 18% 16% 16% 14% 14%
Cash & Bank 8% 9% 7% 10% 8% 10% 4% 3% 4% 4%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that a
raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

DABUR INDIA LTD DABUR INDIA LTD

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 (76) (68) Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 (87) (69) Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 (100) (71) Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 (110) (70) 4 FY21
5 FY22 (121) (69) Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 (133) (67) Sales 5% 6 FY23
7 FY24 (140) (63) PBT 12% 7 FY24
8 FY25 (147) (59) FCF 0% 8 FY25
9 FY26 (154) (56) 9 FY26
10 FY27 (162) (52) 10 FY27
10 -1,618 (521) 10
Intrinsic Value 4,664 Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 79,006 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV 1594% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as th
number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the history
business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of r
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

DABUR INDIA LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
(79) (70) Year 4-6 15%
(95) (75) Year 7-10 10%
(114) (81) Discount Rate 12%
(131) (83)
(150) (85)
(173) (88)
(190) (86)
(209) (84)
(230) (83)
(253) (81)
(3,794) (1,222)
Intrinsic Value 3,790
Current Mkt. Cap. 79,006
Premium/(Discount) to IV 1985%

use a normalized positive FCF as the starting

, without capex. Check the history of this
ng the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range
Company Name DABUR INDIA LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/18 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 1,175.4 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 6.1 Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 24,254 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 79,006 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
DABUR INDIA LTD
Mar/18

1,175.4
8.5
12.1

38,517
79,006

is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this num
resent, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
DABUR INDIA LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) (66) (1,497)

79,006
Years 1-5 6-10 -2%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (4,891)

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 (76) 15% (68)
2 (87) 15% (69)
3 (100) 15% (71)
4 (115) 15% (73)
5 (132) 15% (75)
6 (148) 12% (75)
7 (166) 12% (75)
8 (186) 12% (75)
9 (208) 12% (75)
10 (233) 12% (75)

Final Calculations
Terminal Year (238)
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows (731)
Terminal Value (765)
Total PV of Cash Flows (1,497)
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 79,006

Note: See explanation of DCF here

 Valuation
D

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
DABUR INDIA LTD
Particulars Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 391 501 569 645 763 914 1,066
Net Profit Margin 14% 15% 14% 12% 12% 13% 14%
Return on Equity 48% 54% 41% 38% 37% 35% 32%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 4,207
Current P/E (x) 58.3
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 84,131
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 27,088
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 79,006

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
1,251 1,277 1,354 15% 12%
16% 17% 18%
30% 26% 24%
 Intrinsic Value Range
DABUR INDIA LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair
Dhandho 4,664 3,790 only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two que
Ben Graham 24,254 38,517 (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) C
DCF -1,497 understand this business?
Expected Return 27,088
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the les
Current Market Cap. 79,006 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and use
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "
the-envelope".
Explanation: Considering the above
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evide
if the current market cap is within this IV
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ess simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
nd results. Great analysis is generally "back-of-
the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
DABUR INDIA LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18
Sales 1,982 1,853 1,915 1,790 1,959 1,966 2,033 2,081 2,125 2,199
% Growth YOY -1% 6% 6% 16% 8% 12%
Expenses 1,573 1,519 1,497 1,481 1,539 1,563 1,548 1,695 1,674 1,754
Operating Profit 409 334 417 309 420 403 485 386 451 445
Other Income 89 83 65 67 84 67 73 74 81 76
Depreciation 36 33 40 39 40 40 43 43 43 45
Interest 17 14 12 13 13 13 13 15 16 17
Profit before tax 446 370 431 324 451 416 502 402 474 460
PBT Margin 22% 20% 23% 18% 23% 21% 25% 19% 22% 21%
% Growth YOY 1% 13% 16% 24% 5% 10%
Tax 87 75 98 59 88 83 105 72 96 92
Net profit 358 294 333 264 362 332 396 329 377 366
% Growth YOY 1% 13% 19% 25% 4% 10%
OPM 21% 18% 22% 17% 21% 21% 24% 19% 21% 20%
COMPANY NAME DABUR INDIA LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CH
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 176.63
Face Value 1
Current Price 447.3
Market Capitalization 79006.2

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Sales 2805.43 3390.47 4078.04 5305.42 6169.1 7075.31
Raw Material Cost 968.78 1,040.75 2,059.08 2,795.45 2,111.59 2,412.91
Change in Inventory 39.77 10.28 121.56 103.05 -24.88 43.45
Power and Fuel 50.21 46.81 56.77 65.44 75.61 80.47
Other Mfr. Exp 496.13 577.12 65.69 77.34 963.54 1120.15
Employee Cost 216.97 268.23 298.6 374.54 483.5 588.48
Selling and admin 534.59 718.98 822.82 1037.53 1294.89 1510.4
Other Expenses 112.45 125.67 123.06 168 231.99 247.24
Other Income 46.85 48.22 58.62 57.4 108.94 128.06
Depreciation 44.86 50.27 95.2 103.24 84.72 97.49
Interest 23.21 20.21 29.13 53.84 58.9 54.15
Profit before tax 444.85 600.93 707.87 790.49 948.42 1135.53
Tax 54.04 100.47 138.98 146.38 182.63 219.08
Net profit 391.22 501.27 568.57 644.89 763.42 913.92
Dividend Amount 151.39 173.52 200.18 243.89 261.44 305.17

Quarters
Report Date Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17
Sales 1981.62 1852.91 1914.68 1790.06 1958.93 1966.44
Expenses 1572.95 1519.03 1497.2 1481.17 1539.23 1562.97
Other Income 89.25 83.06 65.04 67.19 84.32 66.51
Depreciation 35.74 33.26 39.54 39.06 40.08 40.45
Interest 16.61 13.94 11.66 13.28 13.32 13.21
Profit before tax 445.57 369.74 431.32 323.74 450.62 416.32
Tax 87.31 75.25 97.67 58.88 87.95 83.29
Net profit 358.35 293.76 333.11 264.14 361.93 332.12
Operating Profit 408.67 333.88 417.48 308.89 419.7 403.47

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Equity Share Capital 86.51 86.76 174.07 174.21 174.29 174.38
Reserves 732.29 848.49 1217.04 1542.19 1916.43 2481.58
Borrowings 229.99 179.30 1,051.00 1,068.09 1,151.35 708.14
Other Liabilities 840.32 961.12 1502.11 1439.77 1489.98 1974.33
Total 1889.11 2075.67 3944.22 4224.26 4732.05 5338.43
Net Block 499.83 646.64 1498.7 1641.23 1581.88 1766.9
Capital Work in Progress 59.33 30.09 32.38 26.76 92.57 21.71
Investments 346.97 264.11 419.66 482.52 928.62 1076.47
Other Assets 982.98 1134.83 1993.48 2073.75 2128.98 2473.35
Total 1889.11 2075.67 3944.22 4224.26 4732.05 5338.43
Receivables 177.88 119.84 355.47 461.68 484.13 675.3
Inventory 375.47 426.22 708.53 823.92 844.44 972.51
Cash & Bank 148.43 192.31 280.45 418.42 361.81 519.38
No. of Equity Shares 865076249 867585830 1.741E+09 1.742E+09 1.743E+09 1.744E+09
New Bonus Shares ###
Face value 1 1 1 1 1 1

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Cash from Operating Activity 322.24 498.9 531.1 596.93 869.54 1098.3
Cash from Investing Activity -251.06 -230.18 -1055.91 -260.5 -622.16 -104.5
Cash from Financing Activity 0.68 -233.09 612.95 -198.46 -233.98 -803.69
Net Cash Flow 71.86 35.63 88.14 137.97 13.4 190.11

PRICE: 49.828333 86.78619 100.68158 109.345 141.8225 180.55526

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 173.64 173.89 174.17 174.31 174.39 174.48
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

7827.2 7868.77 7613.59 7721.85
2,633.97 3,920.09 2,659.55 2,775.35
25.91 70.53 23.02 65.93
90.35 84 87.48 93.91
1208.32 89.1 1247.42 1219
669.1 769.77 789.61 792.79
1662.03 1259.4 1162.09 1099.28
272.93 298.66 178.97 186.56
158.05 217.19 296.05 287.43
114.98 133.19 142.86 162.18
40.12 48.48 54.03 53.05
1319.36 1553.8 1610.65 1693.09
250.89 299.9 330.34 335.35
1065.83 1251.15 1276.94 1354.39
351.3 395.8 396.34 1100.94

Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18

2032.91 2080.68 2124.97 2199.21
1547.91 1694.56 1674.14 1753.82
73.24 73.87 81.48 75.77
42.59 42.73 43.1 44.85
13.24 14.88 15.56 16.74
502.41 402.38 473.65 459.57
105.23 72.38 96.1 92.36
396.2 329.22 376.63 366.05
485 386.12 450.83 445.39

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

 175.65 175.91 176.15 176.15
3178.49 3994.7 4671.24 5530.37
733.56 805.22 975.00 937.59
2046.78 1969.69 1924.93 2075.32
6134.48 6945.52 7747.32 8719.43
1877.13 1667.4 1958.4 2028.11
50.3 44.8 42.1 41.51
1813.37 2690.74 3240.16 3805.17
2393.68 2542.58 2506.66 2844.64
6134.48 6945.52 7747.32 8719.43
710.84 809.2 650.42 706.08
973.27 1,096.50 1,106.71 1,256.18
276.04 219.82 304.81 306.06
1.757E+09 1759141170 1761520510 1761520510
###
1 1 1 1

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

1047.21 1186.99 1226.94 1089
-875.9 -730.33 -807.07 -541.17
-416.77 -374.31 -338.97 -574.37
-245.46 82.35 80.9 -26.54

270.1525 260.252632 287.642105 348.335714

175.75 175.91 176.15 176.15

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