Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver.

4
www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/r
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/e
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company w

Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 4.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea

2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these numbers are
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Ste
Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (
growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock Warning! Excel can be a wonde
a deadly weapon if you wish
Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.0) careful of what you are gettin
garbage out. And if you need th
given stock, you m
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company TATA MOTORS LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 993 Remember! Focus on decision
Face Value (Rs) 2.0 evidenc
No. of Shares (Crore) 366.0
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 363,400

Key Financials - Trend

Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 4.5% Please! It's your money. Plea
cause you to lose it all! I've des
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) -18.3% but you alone are responsible
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) -17.7% ever after! I am not a sadist
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 2.5 analyzing companies on you
instead of a map, for you can co
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) -21.9%
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 7.0
Latest P/E (x) 18.9
 Warning! Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be
a deadly weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
careful of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
garbage out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with a
given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

Remember! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming

evidence. Calculate. Pray!

Please! It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel
cause you to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
but you alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
ever after! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
analyzing companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
instead of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all. All
the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation

Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies tend
to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios. Also
seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe balance
sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years earnings growth
rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the consistency in such
growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average" growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company, look
at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of operations
for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent earnings
and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad for
an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
TATA MOTORS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23
Equity Share Capital 644 644 679 679 679 679 720 766 766 766
Reserves 64,960 55,618 78,273 57,383 94,749 59,500 61,491 54,481 43,795 44,556
Borrowings 60,642 73,610 69,360 78,604 88,950 ### ### ### ### ###
Other Liabilities 92,180 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Total ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

Net Block 69,092 88,479 ### 95,944 ### ### ### ### ### ###
Capital Work in Progress 33,263 28,640 25,919 33,699 40,034 31,884 35,622 20,964 10,251 14,275
Investments 10,687 15,337 23,767 20,338 20,813 15,771 16,308 24,620 29,380 26,379
Other Assets ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Total ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###

Working Capital 13,205 -2,584 -8,605 ### 2,118 7,466 7,961 13,085 12,524 6,702
Debtors 10,574 12,579 13,571 14,076 19,893 18,996 11,173 12,679 12,442 15,738
Inventory 27,271 29,272 32,656 35,085 42,138 39,014 37,457 36,089 35,240 40,755
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 17 17 18 19 25 23 16 19 16 17
Inventory Turnover 9 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 8 8
Fixed Asset Turnover 3.4 3.0 2.5 2.8 2.4 2.7 2.1 1.8 2.0 2.6
Debt/Equity 0.9 1.3 0.9 1.4 0.9 1.8 2.0 2.6 3.3 3.0
Return on Equity 21% 25% 14% 10% 7% -48% -18% -24% -25% 5%
Return on Capital Employed 19% 20% 13% 10% 9% -15% -2% -1% 1% 7%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
TATA MOTORS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Trailing
Sales 232,834 263,159 273,046 269,693 291,550 301,938 261,068 249,795 278,454 345,967 423,874
% Growth YOY 13% 4% -1% 8% 4% -14% -4% 11% 24%
Expenses 197,980 223,920 234,650 240,104 260,093 277,274 243,081 217,507 253,734 314,151 368,356
Material Cost (% of Sales) 63% 62% 61% 64% 64% 64% 63% 61% 64% 67% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% expense items. For manufacturing firms,
Other Mfr. Exp 6% 6% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 9% 10% 11% 11% 10% 11% 12% 11% 11% 10% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 10% 9% 8% 11% 11% 11% 11% 9% 10% 10%
Operating Profit 34,853 39,239 38,395 29,589 31,458 24,664 17,987 32,287 24,720 31,816 55,517
Operating Profit Margin 15% 15% 14% 11% 11% 8% 7% 13% 9% 9% 13%
Other Income -157 714 -2,670 1,869 5,933 -26,686 102 -11,118 2,424 6,328 4,963
Other Income as % of Sales -0.1% 0.3% -1.0% 0.7% 2.0% -8.8% 0.0% -4.5% 0.9% 1.8% 1.2%
Depreciation 11,078 13,389 16,711 17,905 21,554 23,591 21,425 23,547 24,836 24,860 27,170
Interest 4,749 4,861 4,889 4,238 4,682 5,759 7,243 8,097 9,312 10,225 10,394
Interest Coverage(Times) 5 5 4 3 3 -4 -0 -0 0 1 3
Profit before tax (PBT) 18,869 21,703 14,126 9,315 11,155 -31,371 -10,580 -10,474 -7,003 3,058 22,917
% Growth YOY 15% -35% -34% 20% -381% -66% -1% -33% -144%
PBT Margin 8% 8% 5% 3% 4% -10% -4% -4% -3% 1% 5%
Tax 4,765 7,643 3,025 3,251 4,342 -2,437 395 2,542 4,231 704 3,687
Net profit 14,104 14,060 11,101 6,064 6,813 -28,934 -10,975 -13,016 -11,235 2,353 19,230
% Growth YOY 0% -21% -45% 12% -525% -62% 19% -14% -121%
Net Profit Margin 6% 5% 4% 2% 2% -10% -4% -5% -4% 1% 5%
EPS 48.8 48.7 38.4 21.0 23.6 -100.2 -35.5 -39.2 -33.8 7.1 52.5
% Growth YOY 0% -21% -45% 12% -525% -65% 10% -14% -121%
Price to earning 8.1 11.2 10.1 22.2 13.9 -1.7 -2.0 -7.7 -12.8 59.4 18.9
Price 394 544 387 466 327 174 71 302 434 421 993
Dividend Payout 4.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 31.7%
Market Cap 113,885 157,181 111,619 134,505 94,371 50,311 21,947 100,207 144,035 139,760
Retained Earnings 13,455 14,060 11,036 6,064 6,813 -28,934 -10,975 -13,016 -11,235 1,607
Buffett's $1 Test -2.3

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth 4.5% 3.4% 3.5% 9.8%
PBT Growth -18.3% -19.6% -22.8% -166.1%
PBT Margin 0.9% -1.9% -4.1% -1.9%
Price to Earning 10.0 10.2 7.0 13.0

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over past
3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7 to 10
years) growth numbers.
 Cash Flow Statement
TATA MOTORS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 36,151 35,531 37,900 30,199 23,857 18,891 26,633 29,001 14,283 35,388 287,834
% Growth YoY -2% 7% -20% -21% -21% 41% 9% -51% 148%
Cash from Investing Activity ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### -4,444 ### ###
Cash from Financing Activity -3,883 5,201 -3,795 6,205 2,012 8,830 3,390 9,904 -3,380 ### -1,759
Net Cash Flow 4,277 4,500 -2,589 -3,167 730 6,843 -3,092 13,232 6,459 -6,272 20,921
CFO/Sales 16% 14% 14% 11% 8% 6% 10% 12% 5% 10%
CFO/Net Profit 256% 253% 341% 498% 350% -65% -243% -223% -127% 1504%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF 35,836 35,320 37,535 29,634 23,250 17,954 25,477 27,363 13,045 34,564 279,978
Average FCF (3 Years) 24,990
FCF Growth YoY -1% 6% -21% -22% -23% 42% 7% -52% 165%
FCF/Sales 15% 13% 14% 11% 8% 6% 10% 11% 5% 10%
FCF/Net Profit 256% 253% 324% 398% 259% -62% -211% -203% -114% 1432%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Key Ratios
TATA MOTORS LTD
Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22
Sales Growth 13.0% 3.8% -1.2% 8.1% 3.6% -13.5% -4.3% 11.5%
PBT Growth 15.0% -34.9% -34.1% 19.8% ### -66.3% -1.0% -33.1%
Net Profit Growth -0.3% -21.0% -45.4% 12.4% ### -62.1% 18.6% -13.7%
Dividend Growth -100.0% #DIV/0! ### #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Operating Cash Flow Growth -1.7% 6.7% -20.3% -21.0% -20.8% 41.0% 8.9% -50.7%
Free Cash Flow Growth -1.4% 6.3% -21.0% -21.5% -22.8% 41.9% 7.4% -52.3%

Operating Margin 15.0% 14.9% 14.1% 11.0% 10.8% 8.2% 6.9% 12.9% 8.9%
PBT Margin 8.1% 8.2% 5.2% 3.5% 3.8% -10.4% -4.1% -4.2% -2.5%
Net Margin 6.1% 5.3% 4.1% 2.2% 2.3% -9.6% -4.2% -5.2% -4.0%

Debtor Days 16.6 17.4 18.1 19.0 24.9 23.0 15.6 18.5 16.3
Inventory Turnover 8.5 9.0 8.4 7.7 6.9 7.7 7.0 6.9 7.9
Fixed Asset Turnover 3.4 3.0 2.5 2.8 2.4 2.7 2.1 1.8 2.0
Debt/Equity 0.9 1.3 0.9 1.4 0.9 1.8 2.0 2.6 3.3
Debt/Assets 27.8% 31.0% 26.4% 28.8% 27.2% 34.7% 39.0% 41.6% 44.5%
Interest Coverage (Times) 5.0 5.5 3.9 3.2 3.4 -4.4 -0.5 -0.3 0.2
Return on Equity 21.5% 25.0% 14.1% 10.4% 7.1% -48.1% -17.6% -23.6% -25.2%
Return on Capital Employed 18.7% 20.5% 12.8% 9.9% 8.6% -15.4% -1.8% -1.2% 1.2%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 35,836 35,320 ### 29,634 ### 17,954 ### 27,363 ###
Mar/23
24.2%
###
###
#DIV/0!
147.8%
165.0%

9.2%
0.9%
0.7%

16.6
8.5
2.6
3.0
40.1%
1.3
5.2%
7.4%
###
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)

Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
 20% Profit Margin Capital Allo
40%
Check for a rising trend an
15%
20% Numbers > 20% long term
10% has zero/marginal debt. C
5% 0%
4 5 6 7
0% -20% n/1 n/1 n/1 n/1
-5% 14 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja
n/ n/1 a rising
n n/1 and/or
/1 trend n/1 n/1 /2 n/2 /2 /2 -40%
Check for n
consistency. n n
Ja with
-10%Ja Compare Ja competitor
Ja a close Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja
-15% -60%

Operating Margin PBT Margin

Net Margin ROE

400,000
Revenue Revenue and Pr
100%
Check for a rising trend. Check for a ri
350,000 0% pare growth r
300,000 5 6 7 8
-100% /1 /1 1 /1
n n n/ n
250,000 Ja Ja Ja Ja
-200%
200,000
150,000 -300%
100,000 -400%
50,000 -500%
- -600%
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
n/ n/ n/ n/ n/ n/ n/ n/ n/ n/ Revenue Grow
Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja
Net Profit Gro

30,000 Profit Over Time 40,000 Check Operating and

Check for a rising trend. for positive numb
20,000 35,000 which are rising over tim
10,000 30,000
25,000
-
20,000
-10,000 14
/ / 15 / 16 / 17 / 18 / 19 / 20 / 21 /2
2
/2
3
15,000
n n n n n n n n n n
-20,000Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja 10,000
-30,000 5,000
-40,000 -
4 5 6 7
n/1 n /1 n/1 n/1
Ja Ja Ja Ja J

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash F

Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22
Operating Margin 15% 15% 14% 11% 11% 8% 7% 13% 9%
PBT Margin 8% 8% 5% 3% 4% -10% -4% -4% -3%
Net Margin 6% 5% 4% 2% 2% -10% -4% -5% -4%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22
ROE 21% 25% 14% 10% 7% -48% -18% -24% -25%
ROCE 19% 20% 13% 10% 9% -15% -2% -1% 1%

Revenue & Profit Growth

Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22 Mar/23
Revenue Growth 13% 4% -1% 8% 4% -14% -4% 11% 24%
PBT Growth 15% -35% -34% 20% -381% -66% -1% -33% -144%
Net Profit Growth 0% -21% -45% 12% -525% -62% 19% -14% -121%

Revenue & Profit

Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22
Revenue 232,834 263,159 273,046 269,693 291,550 301,938 261,068 249,795 278,454
PBT 18,869 21,703 14,126 9,315 11,155 -31,371 -10,580 -10,474 -7,003
Net Profit 14,104 14,060 11,101 6,064 6,813 -28,934 -10,975 -13,016 -11,235

Cash Flows
Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22
Operating Cash Flow 36,151 35,531 37,900 30,199 23,857 18,891 26,633 29,001 14,283
Free Cash Flow 35,836 35,320 37,535 29,634 23,250 17,954 25,477 27,363 13,045
%
Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
% Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the dates
% on the X-axis. The figures are
for/as on the year ending date,
4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 23
% n/1 /1 /1 /1 /1 /1 / 20 /2 n/2 / which for most Indian
n n n n n n n n
Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja
companies would be 31st
March of that year
%
%

ROE ROCE

Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)

Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility. Com-
pare growth rates with a close competitor.

1 5 6 1 7 8 9 0 1 2 3
n/ /1 n/ /1 /1 2 /2 n/
2
n/
2
a n a n n n/ n
J Ja J Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja

Revenue Growth PBT Growth

Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free

0 Check Cash Flow
for positive numbers and
0 which are rising over time.
0
0
0
0
0
0

/ 14 / 15 / 16 / 17 / 18 / 19 / 20 / 21 / 22 / 23
n n n n n n n n n n
Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow

 Mar/23
9%
1%
1%

Mar/23
5%
7%

Mar/23
345,967
3,058
2,353

Mar/23
35,388
34,564
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 63% 62% 61% 64% 64% 64% 63% 61% 64% 67%
Change in Inventory 1% 1% 1% 3% 1% -1% -1% -2% -1% 1%
Power and Fuel 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1%
Other Mfr. Exp 6% 6% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3%
Employee Cost 9% 10% 11% 11% 10% 11% 12% 11% 11% 10%
Selling and Admin Cost 10% 9% 8% 11% 11% 11% 11% 9% 10% 10%
Other Expenses -2% -1% 3% 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1%
Operating Profit 13% 12% 12% 5% 9% 10% 9% 17% 10% 6%
Other Income 0% 0% -1% 1% 2% -9% 0% -4% 1% 2%
Depreciation 5% 5% 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 7%
Interest 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Profit Before Tax 8% 8% 5% 3% 4% -10% -4% -4% -3% 1%
Tax 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% -1% 0% 1% 2% 0%
Net Profit 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% -10% -5% -5% -4% 1%
Dividend Amount 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Reserves 30% 23% 30% 21% 29% 19% 19% 16% 13% 13%
Borrowings 28% 31% 26% 29% 27% 35% 39% 42% 45% 40%
Other Liabilities 42% 45% 44% 50% 44% 46% 42% 42% 42% 46%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 32% 37% 41% 35% 37% 36% 40% 41% 42% 39%
Capital Work in Progress 15% 12% 10% 12% 12% 10% 11% 6% 3% 4%
Investments 5% 6% 9% 7% 6% 5% 5% 7% 9% 8%
Other Assets 48% 44% 40% 45% 44% 48% 44% 46% 46% 48%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 3% 4% 4% 5%
Inventory 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 12% 11% 11% 12%
Cash & Bank 14% 14% 12% 13% 11% 11% 11% 14% 12% 11%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that a
raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

TATA MOTORS LTD TATA MOTORS LTD

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 28,739 25,660 Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 33,050 26,347 Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 38,007 27,053 Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 41,808 26,570 4 FY21
5 FY22 45,989 26,095 Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 50,588 25,629 Sales 3% 6 FY23
7 FY24 53,117 24,027 PBT -23% 7 FY24
8 FY25 55,773 22,526 FCF 8% 8 FY25
9 FY26 58,562 21,118 9 FY26
10 FY27 61,490 19,798 10 FY27
10 614,896 197,980 10
Intrinsic Value 448,632 Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 363,400 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV -19% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as th
number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the history o
business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of re
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

TATA MOTORS LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
29,988 26,775 Year 4-6 15%
35,986 28,688 Year 7-10 10%
43,183 30,737 Discount Rate 12%
49,661 31,560
57,110 32,406
65,677 33,274
72,244 32,680
79,469 32,096
87,416 31,523
96,157 30,960
1,442,356 464,400
Intrinsic Value 780,928
Current Mkt. Cap. 363,400
Premium/(Discount) to IV -53%

use a normalized positive FCF as the starting

, without capex. Check the history of this
ng the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range
Company Name TATA MOTORS LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/23 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) (12,361.3) Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate (9.6) Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 131,662 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 363,400 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
TATA MOTORS LTD
Mar/23

(12,361.3)
8.5
(19.2)

368,395
363,400

is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this num
resent, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
TATA MOTORS LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 24,990 ###

###
Years 1-5 6-10 157%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) ###

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 28,739 15% 25,660
2 33,050 15% 26,347
3 38,007 15% 27,053
4 43,708 15% 27,777
5 50,265 15% 28,521
6 56,296 12% 28,521
7 63,052 12% 28,521
8 70,618 12% 28,521
9 79,092 12% 28,521
10 88,583 12% 28,521

Final Calculations
Terminal Year 90,355
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows ###
Terminal Value ###
Total PV of Cash Flows ###
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) ###

Note: See explanation of DCF here

Valuation
D

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
TATA MOTORS LTD
Particulars Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 13,991 ### ### 7,454 8,989 ### ###
Net Profit Margin 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% -10% -5%
Return on Equity 21% 25% 14% 10% 7% -48% -18%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 7,498
Current P/E (x) 150.5
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 149,968
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 48,286
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 363,400

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
Mar/21 Mar/22 Mar/23 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
### ### 2,414 -18% -23%
-5% -4% 1%
-24% -25% 5%
 Intrinsic Value Range
TATA MOTORS LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair
Dhandho 448,632 ### only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two que
Ben Graham 131,662 ### (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) C
DCF 568,885 understand this business?
Expected Return 48,286
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the les
Current Market Cap. 363,400 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and use
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "
the-envelope".
Explanation: Considering the above
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evide
if the current market cap is within this IV
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ess simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
nd results. Great analysis is generally "back-of-
the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
TATA MOTORS LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23
Sales ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
% Growth YOY 30% 23% 35% 42% 32% 25%
Expenses ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
Operating Profit 4,117 7,078 8,283 2,413 5,572 ### ### ### ### ###
Other Income 862 789 189 2,381 1,351 1,130 1,362 684 1,507 1,411
Depreciation 6,123 6,078 6,432 5,841 5,897 6,072 7,050 6,633 6,636 6,850
Interest 2,327 2,401 2,381 2,421 2,487 2,676 2,642 2,615 2,652 2,485
Profit before tax -3,472 -612 -341 -3,468 -1,461 3,203 4,784 4,653 5,986 7,494
PBT Margin -6% -1% 0% -5% -2% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7%
% Growth YOY -58% -623% -1503% -234% -510% 134%
Tax 1,005 726 758 1,519 -457 263 -621 1,563 2,203 542
Net profit -4,442 -1,516 -1,033 -5,007 -945 2,958 5,408 3,203 3,764 7,025
% Growth YOY -79% -295% -624% -164% -498% 138%
OPM 7% 10% 11% 3% 7% 12% 12% 13% 13% 14%
COMPANY NAME TATA MOTORS LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CH
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 366.04
Face Value 2
Current Price 992.8
Market Capitalization 363399.62

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
Sales 232833.66 263158.98 273045.6 269692.51 291550.48 301938.4
Raw Material Cost 146,426.99 ### ### ### ### ###
Change in Inventory 2,840.58 3,330.35 2,750.99 7,399.92 2,046.58 -2,053.28
Power and Fuel 1128.69 1121.75 1143.63 1159.82 1308.08 1585.93
Other Mfr. Exp 13806.04 16173.17 12101.53 10067.37 10971.66 11694.54
Employee Cost 21609.92 25641.95 28880.89 28332.89 30300.09 33243.87
Selling and admin 22357.79 23603.01 21991.9 30039.38 31004.58 32719.8
Other Expenses -4508.55 -2539.56 7149.38 4610.2 658.39 1708.74
Other Income -156.79 714.03 -2669.62 1869.1 5932.73 -26686.25
Depreciation 11078.16 13388.63 16710.78 17904.99 21553.59 23590.63
Interest 4749.44 4861.49 4889.08 4238.01 4681.79 5758.6
Profit before tax 18868.97 21702.56 14125.77 9314.79 11155.03 -31371.15
Tax 4764.79 7642.91 3025.05 3251.23 4341.93 -2437.45
Net profit 13991.02 13986.29 11579.31 7454.36 8988.91 -28826.23
Dividend Amount 643.78 67.92

Quarters
Report Date Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22
Sales 61378.82 72229.29 78439.06 71934.66 79611.37 88488.59
Expenses 57262.21 65151.27 70156.27 69521.93 74039.06 77668.35
Other Income 862.46 788.73 188.74 2380.98 1351.14 1129.98
Depreciation 6123.32 6078.13 6432.11 5841.04 5897.34 6071.78
Interest 2,327.30 2,400.74 2,380.52 2,420.72 2,487.26 2,675.83
Profit before tax -3471.55 -612.12 -341.1 -3468.05 -1461.15 3202.61
Tax 1005.06 726.05 758.22 1518.96 -457.08 262.83
Net profit -4441.57 -1516.14 -1032.84 -5006.6 -944.61 2957.71
Operating Profit 4116.61 7078.02 8282.79 2412.73 5572.31 10820.24

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
Equity Share Capital 643.78 643.78 679.18 679.22 679.22 679.22
Reserves 64959.67 55618.14 78273.23 57382.67 94748.69 59500.34
Borrowings 60,642.28 73,610.39 69,359.96 78,603.98 88,950.47 ###
Other Liabilities 92180.26 107442.48 114871.75 135914.49 142813.43 139348.59
Total 218425.99 237314.79 263184.12 272580.36 327191.81 305703.49
Net Block 69091.67 88479.49 107231.76 95944.08 121413.86 111234.47
Capital Work in Progress 33262.56 28640.09 25918.94 33698.84 40033.5 31883.84
Investments 10686.67 15,336.74 23767.02 20337.92 20812.75 15770.72
Other Assets 105385.09 104858.47 106266.4 122599.52 144931.7 146814.46
Total 218425.99 237314.79 263184.12 272580.36 327191.81 305703.49
Receivables 10574.23 12579.2 13570.91 14075.55 19893.3 18996.17
Inventory 27,270.89 29,272.34 32,655.73 35,085.31 42,137.63 39,013.73
Cash & Bank 29711.79 32115.76 30460.4 36077.88 34613.91 32648.82
No. of Equity Shares 3218930000 3.219E+09 3.396E+09 3.396E+09 3.396E+09 3.396E+09
New Bonus Shares
Face value 2 2 2 2 2 2

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19
Cash from Operating Activity 36151.16 35531.26 37899.54 30199.25 23857.42 18890.75
Cash from Investing Activity -27990.91 -36232.35 -36693.9 -39571.4 -25139.14 -20878.07
Cash from Financing Activity -3883.24 5201.44 -3795.12 6205.3 2011.71 8830.37
Net Cash Flow 4277.01 4500.35 -2589.48 -3166.85 729.99 6843.05

PRICE: 394.42 544.37 386.6 465.85 326.85 174.25

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 288.74 288.74 288.72 288.73 288.73 288.73
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23

261067.97 249794.75 278453.62 345966.97
### 153,607.36 179,295.33 231,251.26
-2,231.19 -4,684.16 -1,590.49 4,781.62
1264.95 1112.87 2178.29 2513.33
11541.51 8273.17 9427.38 11765.97
30438.6 27648.48 30808.52 33654.7
29248.32 23015.79 29205.4 34839.19
3456.51 -834.51 1228.12 4908.34
101.71 -11117.83 2424.05 6327.59
21425.43 23546.71 24835.69 24860.36
7243.33 8097.17 9,311.86 10,225.48
-10579.98 -10474.28 -7003.41 3057.55
395.25 2541.86 4231.29 704.06
-12070.85 -13451.39 -11441.47 2414.29
766.02

Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23

105932.35 102236.08 105128.24 110577.14
92817.95 89018.36 91361.3 95158.77
1361.61 683.56 1507.05 1410.5
7050.2 6633.18 6636.42 6850
2,641.67 2,615.39 2,651.69 2,484.91
4784.14 4652.71 5985.88 7493.96
-620.65 1563.01 2202.84 541.79
5407.79 3202.8 3764 7025.11
13114.4 13217.72 13766.94 15418.37

Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23

 719.54 765.81 765.88 766.02
61491.49 54480.91 43795.36 44555.77
### 142,130.57 146,449.03 134,113.44
133180.72 144192.62 138051.22 155239.2
320179.39 341569.91 329061.49 334674.43
127107.14 138707.61 138855.45 132079.76
35622.29 20963.93 10251.09 14274.5
16308.48 24620.28 29379.53 26379.16
141141.48 157278.09 150575.42 161941.01
320179.39 341569.91 329061.49 334674.43
11172.69 12679.08 12442.12 15737.97
37,456.88 36,088.59 35,240.34 40,755.39
33726.97 46792.46 40669.19 37015.56
3.598E+09 3829060661 3829414903 3830097221

2 2 2 2

Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23

26632.94 29000.51 14282.83 35388.01
-33114.55 -25672.5 -4443.66 -15417.17
3389.61 9904.2 -3380.17 -26242.9
-3092 13232.21 6459 -6272.06

71.05 301.8 433.75 420.8

308.90 332.03 332.07 332.13

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