Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver.

4
www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/r
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/e
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company w
Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 4.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea
2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these numbers are
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Ste
Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (
growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock Warning! Excel can be a wonde
deadly weapon if you wish t
Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.0) careful of what you are gettin
garbage out. And if you need th
given stock, you m
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company JTEKT INDIA LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 96 Remember! Focus on decisio
Face Value (Rs) 1.0 evidenc
No. of Shares (Crore) 24.4
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 2,341

Key Financials - Trend

Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 2.5% Please! It's your money. Plea
cause you to lose it all! I've de
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) -5.8% but you alone are responsible
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) -4.2% ever after! I am not a sadist
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 0.5 analyzing companies on you
instead of a map, for you can c
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 11.6%
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 29.5
Latest P/E (x) -1,540.1
Warning! Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be a
deadly weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
careful of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
garbage out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with a
given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

Remember! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming

evidence. Calculate. Pray!

Please! It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel
cause you to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
but you alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
ever after! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
analyzing companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
instead of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all. All
the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation
Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies tend
to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios. Also
seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe balance
sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years earnings growth
rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the consistency in such
growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average" growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company, look
at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of operations
for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent earnings
and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing significant
volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad for
an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
JTEKT INDIA LTD
Rs Cr Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20
Equity Share Capital 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 24 24
Reserves 186 219 242 289 304 327 363 520 568 571
Borrowings 344 358 410 341 292 307 249 232 188 78
Other Liabilities 315 357 376 389 398 397 248 279 302 217
Total 865 953 1,048 1,039 1,013 1,052 880 1,051 1,083 890

Net Block 470 546 609 602 584 600 477 549 533 487
Capital Work in Progress 24 46 32 75 63 40 23 25 10 3
Investments 30 30 30 1 1 1 103 - - -
Other Assets 342 331 377 361 365 411 278 476 541 401
Total 865 953 1,048 1,039 1,013 1,052 880 1,051 1,083 890

Working Capital 27 -25 1 -28 -33 14 30 198 239 184

Debtors 162 175 227 208 189 215 155 258 268 194
Inventory 75 61 81 94 100 99 84 104 113 115
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 49 45 57 51 44 52 47 62 56 47
Inventory Turnover 16 23 18 16 15 15 14 15 16 13
Fixed Asset Turnover 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.3 3.1
Debt/Equity 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1
Return on Equity 24% 25% 18% 28% 18% 16% 11% 13% 13% 6%
Return on Capital Employed 21% 22% 17% 23% 19% 17% 13% 16% 18% 8%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
JTEKT INDIA LTD
Rs Cr Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Trailing
Sales 1,207 1,421 1,460 1,492 1,553 1,518 1,211 1,519 1,754 1,511 1,228
% Growth YOY 18% 3% 2% 4% -2% -20% 25% 15% -14%
Expenses 1,061 1,246 1,295 1,314 1,337 1,324 1,063 1,306 1,532 1,374 1,147
Material Cost (% of Sales) 72% 70% 71% 69% 67% 66% 65% 64% 66% 67% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% expense items. For manufacturing firms,
Other Mfr. Exp 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 7% 8% 9% 9% 9% 11% 12% 12% 11% 14% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Operating Profit 146 175 165 179 216 194 148 213 222 137 81
Operating Profit Margin 12% 12% 11% 12% 14% 13% 12% 14% 13% 9% 7%
Other Income 9 3 9 40 5 16 12 9 12 9 6
Other Income as % of Sales 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 2.7% 0.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5%
Depreciation 38 46 59 68 104 99 79 96 96 93 85
Interest 44 46 41 39 31 32 25 21 16 10 5
Interest Coverage(Times) 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 6 9 5 0
Profit before tax (PBT) 74 86 74 111 86 79 56 104 122 43 -3
% Growth YOY 17% -14% 49% -23% -7% -30% 87% 17% -65%
PBT Margin 6% 6% 5% 7% 6% 5% 5% 7% 7% 3% 0%
Tax 25 26 26 25 27 25 15 36 44 8 -2
Net profit 49 60 48 86 59 54 40 68 78 35 -2
% Growth YOY 23% -20% 80% -32% -8% -25% 69% 14% -55%
Net Profit Margin 4% 4% 3% 6% 4% 4% 3% 5% 4% 2% 0%
EPS 2.5 3.0 2.4 4.3 3.0 2.7 2.0 3.4 3.2 1.4 -0.1
% Growth YOY 23% -20% 80% -32% -8% -25% 69% -7% -55%
Price to earning 6.6 3.7 4.0 4.9 16.9 16.9 40.1 28.8 34.3 27.5 -
Price 16 11 10 21 50 46 82 99 110 39 96
Dividend Payout 28.9% 26.5% 33.9% 23.5% 34.1% 26.8% 26.9% 15.6% 26.9% 28.3%
Market Cap 324 226 194 420 998 916 1,622 1,967 2,682 965
Retained Earnings 35 44 32 66 39 40 30 58 57 25
Buffett's $1 Test 1.5

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth 2.5% 0.5% -0.6% 7.6%
PBT Growth -5.8% -7.5% -12.9% -8.4%
PBT Margin 5.7% 5.6% 5.3% 5.6%
Price to Earning 18.4 24.2 29.5 30.2

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7 to
10 years) growth numbers.
 Cash Flow Statement
JTEKT INDIA LTD
Rs Cr Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 81 181 99 163 199 131 162 178 184 124 1,502
% Growth YoY 123% -45% 65% 22% -34% 23% 10% 4% -32%
Cash from Investing Activity -54 -139 -96 -42 -81 -79 -64 -118 16 -34 -690
Cash from Financing Activity -21 -42 -13 -122 -103 -35 -100 -55 -85 -152 -727
Net Cash Flow 6 -0 -10 -0 15 18 -2 5 115 -61 85
CFO/Sales 7% 13% 7% 11% 13% 9% 13% 12% 10% 8%
CFO/Net Profit 165% 300% 207% 189% 337% 243% 400% 260% 235% 354%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF -234 -31 -265 -402 -408 -806 -994 -1,460 -1,054 -700 -6,354
Average FCF (3 Years) -1,071
FCF Growth YoY -87% 762% 52% 2% 97% 23% 47% -28% -34%
FCF/Sales -19% -2% -18% -27% -26% -53% -82% -96% -60% -46%
FCF/Net Profit -524% -63% -696% -593% -1077% -2174% -2689% -2291% -1449% -2313%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Key Ratios
JTEKT INDIA LTD
Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
Sales Growth 17.8% 2.7% 2.2% 4.1% -2.2% -20.2% 25.4% 15.4%
PBT Growth 16.9% -13.7% 49.4% -22.8% -7.3% -29.6% 86.6% 16.7%
Net Profit Growth 22.6% -20.4% 80.0% -31.7% -8.2% -25.3% 69.0% 14.4%
Dividend Growth 0.0% 0.0% 23.1% -18.7% -23.1% 0.0% 0.0% 96.8%
Operating Cash Flow Growth 122.9% -45.1% 64.7% 21.6% -33.8% 23.2% 9.6% 3.5%
Free Cash Flow Growth -86.9% 761.8% 51.6% 1.7% 97.3% 23.4% 46.9% -27.8%

Operating Margin 12.1% 12.3% 11.3% 12.0% 13.9% 12.8% 12.2% 14.0% 12.6%
PBT Margin 6.1% 6.1% 5.1% 7.4% 5.5% 5.2% 4.6% 6.9% 6.9%
Net Margin 4.1% 4.2% 3.3% 5.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.3% 4.5% 4.5%

Debtor Days 48.9 45.0 56.9 50.9 44.5 51.7 46.6 62.0 55.8
Inventory Turnover 16.0 23.4 17.9 15.9 15.5 15.3 14.5 14.7 15.6
Fixed Asset Turnover 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.3
Debt/Equity 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.3
Debt/Assets 39.8% 37.5% 39.1% 32.9% 28.8% 29.2% 28.3% 22.1% 17.4%
Interest Coverage (Times) 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.2 5.9 8.8
Return on Equity 23.9% 25.2% 18.3% 27.9% 18.2% 15.6% 10.6% 12.7% 13.2%
Return on Capital Employed 21.3% 22.1% 17.2% 23.1% 19.0% 17.0% 12.8% 16.3% 17.6%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) -234 -31 -265 -402 -408 -806 -994 -1,460 -1,054
Mar/20
-13.9%
-64.7%
-55.1%
-56.2%
-32.3%
-33.6%

9.1%
2.8%
2.3%

46.9
13.1
3.1
0.1
8.8%
5.3
5.9%
7.8%
-700
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)

Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
16% Profit Margin 30%
Capital Allo
Check for a rising trend a
14% 25% Numbers > 20% long term
12% has zero/marginal debt. C
10% 20%
8% 15%
6% 10%
4%
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency. 5%
2% Compare with a close competitor
0% 0%
Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19 Jan/11 Jan/13

Operating Margin PBT Margin

Net Margin RO

2,000
Revenue 100% Revenue and P
Check for a rising trend. Check for a r
80% Compare gro
1,500 60%
40%
1,000 20%
0%
-20% Jan/12 Jan/14
500
-40%
-60%
- -80%
Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19
Revenue Gro
Net Profit Gr

140 Profit Over Time Operating an

500 Check
Check for a rising trend. for positive numb
120 which are rising over ti
-
100 Jan/11 Jan/13
80 -500
60 -1,000
40
-1,500
20
- -2,000
Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash

Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
Operating Margin 12% 12% 11% 12% 14% 13% 12% 14% 13%
PBT Margin 6% 6% 5% 7% 6% 5% 5% 7% 7%
Net Margin 4% 4% 3% 6% 4% 4% 3% 5% 4%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
ROE 24% 25% 18% 28% 18% 16% 11% 13% 13%
ROCE 21% 22% 17% 23% 19% 17% 13% 16% 18%

Revenue & Profit Growth

Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20
Revenue Growth 18% 3% 2% 4% -2% -20% 25% 15% -14%
PBT Growth 17% -14% 49% -23% -7% -30% 87% 17% -65%
Net Profit Growth 23% -20% 80% -32% -8% -25% 69% 14% -55%

Revenue & Profit

Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
Revenue 1,207 1,421 1,460 1,492 1,553 1,518 1,211 1,519 1,754
PBT 74 86 74 111 86 79 56 104 122
Net Profit 49 60 48 86 59 54 40 68 78

Cash Flows
Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19
Operating Cash Flow 81 181 99 163 199 131 162 178 184
Free Cash Flow -234 -31 -265 -402 -408 -806 -994 -1,460 -1,054
 Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the dates
on the X-axis. The figures are
for/as on the year ending date,
which for most Indian
companies would be 31st
March of that year

Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19

ROE ROCE

Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)

Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility.
Compare growth rates with a close competitor.

Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18 Jan/20

Revenue Growth PBT Growth

Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free Cash Flow

0 Check for positive numbers and
which are rising over time.

Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Jan/19

0
0
0
0

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow

Mar/20
9%
3%
2%

Mar/20
6%
8%

Mar/20
1,511
43
35

Mar/20
124
-700
 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 72% 70% 71% 69% 67% 66% 65% 64% 66% 67%
Change in Inventory 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Power and Fuel 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1%
Other Mfr. Exp 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Employee Cost 7% 8% 9% 9% 9% 11% 12% 12% 11% 14%
Selling and Admin Cost 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Other Expenses 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0%
Operating Profit 10% 13% 10% 11% 14% 13% 11% 14% 13% 9%
Other Income 1% 0% 1% 3% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Depreciation 3% 3% 4% 5% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5% 6%
Interest 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Profit Before Tax 6% 6% 5% 7% 6% 5% 5% 7% 7% 3%
Tax 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1%
Net Profit 4% 3% 3% 5% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 2%
Dividend Amount 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%
Reserves 21% 23% 23% 28% 30% 31% 41% 49% 52% 64%
Borrowings 40% 38% 39% 33% 29% 29% 28% 22% 17% 9%
Other Liabilities 36% 37% 36% 37% 39% 38% 28% 27% 28% 24%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 54% 57% 58% 58% 58% 57% 54% 52% 49% 55%
Capital Work in Progress 3% 5% 3% 7% 6% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%
Investments 3% 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 12% 0% 0% 0%
Other Assets 40% 35% 36% 35% 36% 39% 32% 45% 50% 45%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 19% 18% 22% 20% 19% 20% 18% 25% 25% 22%
Inventory 9% 6% 8% 9% 10% 9% 10% 10% 10% 13%
Cash & Bank 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% 3% 0% 8% 11% 7%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that a
raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

JTEKT INDIA LTD JTEKT INDIA LTD

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 (1,232) (1,100) Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 (1,417) (1,130) Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 (1,630) (1,160) Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 (1,793) (1,139) 4 FY21
5 FY22 (1,972) (1,119) Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 (2,169) (1,099) Sales -1% 6 FY23
7 FY24 (2,277) (1,030) PBT -13% 7 FY24
8 FY25 (2,391) (966) FCF 11% 8 FY25
9 FY26 (2,511) (905) 9 FY26
10 FY27 (2,636) (849) 10 FY27
10 -26,364 (8,489) 10
Intrinsic Value (13,157) Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 2,341 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV -118% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as th
number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the history
business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of r
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

JTEKT INDIA LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
(1,286) (1,148) Year 4-6 15%
(1,543) (1,230) Year 7-10 10%
(1,852) (1,318) Discount Rate 12%
(2,129) (1,353)
(2,449) (1,389)
(2,816) (1,427)
(3,098) (1,401)
(3,407) (1,376)
(3,748) (1,352)
(4,123) (1,327)
(61,842) (19,911)
Intrinsic Value (27,404)
Current Mkt. Cap. 2,341
Premium/(Discount) to IV -109%

use a normalized positive FCF as the starting

, without capex. Check the history of this
ng the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range
Company Name JTEKT INDIA LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/20 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 55.3 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate (4.9) Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) (75) Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 2,341 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
JTEKT INDIA LTD
Mar/20

55.3
8.5
(9.9)

(619)
2,341

is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this num
resent, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
JTEKT INDIA LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) (1,071) (24,391)

2,341
Years 1-5 6-10 -1042%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (5,751)

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 (1,232) 15% (1,100)
2 (1,417) 15% (1,130)
3 (1,630) 15% (1,160)
4 (1,874) 15% (1,191)
5 (2,155) 15% (1,223)
6 (2,414) 12% (1,223)
7 (2,703) 12% (1,223)
8 (3,028) 12% (1,223)
9 (3,391) 12% (1,223)
10 (3,798) 12% (1,223)

Final Calculations
Terminal Year (3,874)
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows (11,918)
Terminal Value (12,473)
Total PV of Cash Flows (24,391)
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 2,341

Note: See explanation of DCF here

Valuation

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
JTEKT INDIA LTD
Particulars Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 45 49 38 68 38 37 37
Net Profit Margin 4% 3% 3% 5% 2% 2% 3%
Return on Equity 24% 25% 18% 28% 18% 16% 11%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 94
Current P/E (x) 77.4
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 1,880
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 605
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 2,341

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
64 73 30 -4% -4%
4% 4% 2%
13% 13% 6%
 Intrinsic Value Range
JTEKT INDIA LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fai
Dhandho -13,157 ### only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two que
Ben Graham -75 -619 (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) C
DCF -24,391 understand this business?
Expected Return 605
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the les
Current Market Cap. 2,341 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and use
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "
the-envelope".
Explanation: Considering the above
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evide
if the current market cap is within this IV
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ess simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
nd results. Great analysis is generally "back-of-
the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
JTEKT INDIA LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20
Sales 465 397 475 390 391 364 365 76 355 432
% Growth YOY -16% -8% -23% -81% -9% 19%
Expenses 408 352 406 356 353 333 332 107 321 387
Operating Profit 57 46 69 34 39 30 34 -31 34 45
Other Income 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 1
Depreciation 24 24 24 24 24 24 22 21 22 21
Interest 4 3 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1
Profit before tax 33 21 44 10 15 7 12 -51 12 24
PBT Margin 7% 5% 9% 3% 4% 2% 3% -67% 3% 6%
% Growth YOY -56% -69% -73% -608% -17% 262%
Tax 12 7 17 4 3 0 1 -12 3 7
Net profit 20 13 26 5 10 5 9 -37 8 17
% Growth YOY -47% -60% -65% -797% -23% 208%
OPM 12% 11% 15% 9% 10% 8% 9% -41% 9% 10%
COMPANY NAME JTEKT INDIA LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CH
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 24.45
Face Value 1
Current Price 95.75
Market Capitalization 2340.9

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
Sales 1206.79 1421.25 1460.02 1492.31 1552.97 1518.31
Raw Material Cost 866.99 995.03 1,031.13 1,035.43 1,035.66 1,001.38
Change in Inventory 11.56 -4.62 6.53 9.36 2.16 1.59
Power and Fuel 18.58 20.64 25.04 25.37 25.84 25.42
Other Mfr. Exp 32.38 35.11 41.87 42.38 45.89 47.25
Employee Cost 89.4 113.5 126.54 134.59 146.9 168.19
Selling and admin 57.12 64.07 70.71 75.39 78.32 77.93
Other Expenses 7.96 13.28 6.71 9.99 6.87 5.76
Other Income 9.14 2.75 9.34 39.7 4.88 15.97
Depreciation 37.74 45.75 58.5 67.95 103.68 98.75
Interest 43.67 45.93 41.09 39.23 31.14 31.73
Profit before tax 73.65 86.07 74.3 111.04 85.71 79.46
Tax 24.55 25.85 26.34 24.73 26.72 25.3
Net profit 44.64 48.71 38.09 67.76 37.9 37.05
Dividend Amount 12.92 12.92 12.92 15.9 12.92 9.94

Quarters
Report Date Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19
Sales 465.42 397.11 475.43 390.44 391.19 363.52
Expenses 407.99 351.56 406.06 356.02 352.61 333.2
Other Income 3.32 3.18 2.86 2.61 2.08 2.52
Depreciation 24.13 23.91 24.11 23.69 23.54 23.69
Interest 3.72 3.46 4.13 3.29 2.59 2.44
Profit before tax 32.9 21.36 43.99 10.05 14.53 6.71
Tax 11.53 7.09 16.69 3.57 2.83 0.39
Net profit 19.73 13.41 25.61 5.37 10.45 5.39
Operating Profit 57.43 45.55 69.37 34.42 38.58 30.32

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
Equity Share Capital 19.87 19.87 19.87 19.87 19.87 19.87
Reserves 185.77 219.35 242.32 289.03 303.55 327.43
Borrowings 344.04 357.51 409.95 341.46 292.07 307.35
Other Liabilities 315.15 356.51 375.59 388.65 397.6 397.45
Total 864.83 953.24 1047.73 1039.01 1013.09 1052.1
Net Block 469.53 546.4 609.43 601.79 584.15 599.64
Capital Work in Progress 23.97 46.1 31.96 75.36 63.19 40.49
Investments 29.52 29.52 29.52 0.98 1.18 0.85
Other Assets 341.81 331.22 376.82 360.88 364.57 411.12
Total 864.83 953.24 1047.73 1039.01 1013.09 1052.1
Receivables 161.77 175.2 227.45 208.18 189.19 215.26
Inventory 75.19 60.70 81.37 93.58 100.40 99.12
Cash & Bank 11.9 12.3 2.54 2.82 17.98 36.29
No. of Equity Shares 198741832 198741832 198741832 198741832 198741832 198741832
New Bonus Shares
Face value 1 1 1 1 1 1

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
Cash from Operating Activity 81.13 180.83 99.19 163.41 198.63 131.47
Cash from Investing Activity -54.07 -138.88 -96.17 -41.59 -81.32 -78.71
Cash from Financing Activity -21.07 -42.22 -12.57 -121.88 -102.5 -34.71
Net Cash Flow 5.99 -0.27 -9.55 -0.06 14.82 18.05

PRICE: 16.3 11.35 9.75 21.15 50.25 46.1

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 19.87 19.87 19.87 19.87 19.87 19.87
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20

1211.44 1519.27 1753.97 1510.55
791.81 975.42 1,155.24 1,012.00
4.53 -2.18 -1.21 -2.85
22.32 24.99 26.08 20.66
43.26 59 69.7 59.42
144.98 177.51 195.61 214.22
46.81 56.73 78.82 57.41
18.77 10.57 5.67 7.01
11.95 8.97 11.64 8.69
78.83 96.05 95.95 92.78
25.22 21.45 15.55 9.93
55.92 104.34 121.78 42.96
15.44 35.94 43.52 7.84
36.97 63.76 72.74 30.26
9.94 9.94 19.56 8.56

Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20

365.41 75.99 354.65 431.87
331.87 106.86 321.14 387.06
1.6 1.71 1.42 1.3
21.85 20.66 21.6 20.67
1.61 1.27 1.25 1.17
11.68 -51.09 12.08 24.27
1.06 -12.48 3.31 6.57
9.05 -37.45 8.09 16.61
33.54 -30.87 33.51 44.81

Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20

19.87 19.87 24.45 24.45
 363.12 519.97 568.46 571.18
249.29 232.29 188.38 78.14
248.18 278.51 302.04 216.64
880.46 1050.64 1083.33 890.41
476.53 549.29 532.73 486.8
22.6 25.09 9.93 2.71
103.01
278.32 476.26 540.67 400.9
880.46 1050.64 1083.33 890.41
154.77 257.96 268.29 194.11
83.83 103.66 112.50 114.91
2.61 84.15 123.69 62.21
198741832 198741832 244480469 244480469

1 1 1 1

Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20

161.94 177.55 183.8 124.37
-63.73 -118.15 16.4 -33.58
-100.18 -54.65 -85.42 -151.99
-1.97 4.74 114.77 -61.2

81.65 99 109.7 39.45

19.87 19.87 24.45 24.45

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