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1.1 INTRODUCTION:
The present study deals with a crucial issue of dividend and its relevance with share
price. As the title of the study “Impact of Dividend on Share Price Volatility With
Reference To Power Industry in India”, also points towards this mammoth issue. What
makes the ongoing research by the researcher more relevant, is the fact that the inquiry
about the relationship between share price and dividend is carried out in one of the most
crucial sector of economy namely power sector. For the purpose of conducting this
research, researcher has predominantly relied on the secondary data; however a wise use
of primary data is also carried out by the researcher. The power industry of India is quite
big in size considering the vast dimensions of Indian Economy in terms of its huge
industrial base and demand of power. To give a sufficient representation of the
population researcher included the following companies in her study. The names of these
companies are NTPC, NHPC, NLC, Tata Power, Power Grid Corporation. These
companies are among the top five in terms of market share of the power industry in India.
Power industry being a core industry, which impacts every sector of the economy, the
fluctuation in share price, here is bound to have repercussion on other sectors too.
The share price volatility has been an area of concern for policy makers and researcher
alike. The volatility in share price refers to the rapid changes of share price which is not
considered good for any sector or industry the same also form the core area of analysis of
this study. In a sense volatility is concerned with the risk related to the returns from a
share. The researcher has attempted to analysis main issue of her study with the help of
some statistical tools, correlation and chi square. In this chapter researcher plans to
present an outlook of her study, particularly from a point of view of the conceptual
understanding of the theme related to the research topic.
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1.2. DIVIDEND: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
Dividend had always been a debatable issue among the thinkers in the area of financial
and investment management. There are many factors which make dividend decisions
quite complex and challenging. A company cannot afford to overlook the nature of its
investors because it is the prime issue which a company must consider between the tug of
war between dividend and capital gain. The issue of growing or decline firm, of course,
will have also seen and consider. In the same continuation, researcher presents some
theoretical and conceptual background related issues.
Another crucial area of concern of the dividend decision includes dividend stability, form
of dividends, i.e., cash dividends or stock dividends. As per companies Act 1956
Dividend is paid only out of the profit of the Financial year (after depreciation), Profits of
the previous financial year (after depreciation), out of both and out of money‟s provided
by the Government or a State Government for the payment of dividend. As far as the
different versions of dividend are concerned, one division is on the basis of final and
interim dividend the main aspects of these types of dividend are mentioned below.
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Final Dividend: The main features of Final dividend are as follows:
Cash Dividend:
The most common form of the dividend is cash dividend. This is paid as cash per share of
the dividend. The dividend is declared by the board of directors, are allotted on the date
of record of the shareholders of the companies, it is distributed after considering the bank
balance position and effective cash budget for the payment of dividends. The cash
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account and the reserve account will be reduced when cash dividend is paid. So it reduces
total net worth and assets of the company. When a company follows a stable dividend
policy, it should remain prepared for the necessary funds for the purpose. It will be wise
if following points be considered before distribution of cash dividends: These are
Availability of cash
Requirements of cash
Liabilities of the firm
Property Dividend
The property dividend is also paid by firms in terms of assets. The asset could be any of
the equipment, motor vehicle, furniture or any other asset. It is a form of non-monetary
dividend distributed by the companies to the shareholders, in place of a cash or stock as
payment. This distribution takes place at the fair market value of the assets. The value of
the asset has to be revalued at the fair value while issuing a property dividend.
Bonus share (Stock dividend)
An issue of bonus shares is the division of shares which are not paid by cost to the
existing shareholders. In India, bonus shares are issued as supplementary to cash dividend
rather than paying cash dividend. The companies in India may pay bonus shares as
additional cash dividend. The bonus shares are distributed on the basis of the existing
shareholdings. Companies having inefficient liquidity, but sufficient retained earnings
may elect stock dividends or bonus share. The following are the main effects of
distribution of bonus shares
Number of equity shares increases
There is no inflow or outflow of cash involved in it
EPS will decrease in the future
Price of the share decreases
The Capital base of the companies increases
Scrip dividend
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shareholder‟s confidence intact. When a company does not have adequate funds to issue
dividends in the near future, in its place it issues a scrip dividend, which is essentially a
promissory note to pay shareholders at a later date. We can also say that this is the written
document to pay dividend in future.
After having discussed various ways and forms of dividend distribution, researcher
present an overview about various forms of dividend policy popular in literature as well
in practice researcher has drawn some insights from these policies to frame a
questionnaire which is utilized by her as a supplementary tool to further augment her
research work.
1.3. VARIOUS DIVIDEND POLICIES IN USE.
Dividend policy is an extremely crucial issue and no one can undermine its significance
in comparison to other business policies. All intelligent firms design, frame, and act
cleverly on their dividend policies. The Dividend has a lot to do with earning per share of
a share and researcher finds it appropriate to present a brief overview of different
dividend policy popular in practice. Though various factors influence dividend policies,
however regularity and stability are among the most significant one. Below is being
presented the relevant discussion.
In this type of dividend policy investors are benefited with continuous dividend at normal
rate. Senior citizens or weakest sections of the society prefer this type of dividend as they
want to get a regular income. This type of dividend reimbursement can be maintained
only if the company has regularity of earning.
1.3.2. Stable dividend policy:
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not represent stagnation in the dividend payout ratio. It includes slow but steady change
is the prime feature of the stable dividend policy. When the firm‟s earnings tend to rise
frequently and the management feels pleased that increased earnings are sustainable,
stable amount of dividend per share is increased. The main merits of the stable dividend
policies are as follows:
The shareholder confidence is increased by this policy.
It stabilizes the market value of shares.
It helps in maintaining the goodwill of the company.
Companies announce dividend as a percent of the paid-up capital per share, this is
known as dividend per share. Companies go over the policy of paying a fixed amount
per share or a fixed rate on paid-up capital as dividend every year. Here the reserve
fund is created to pay a fixed amount of dividend in the year. It is difficult to maintain
with fluctuating earnings. So surpluses are maintained by the companies to provide
constant dividend per share. For example on a face value of Rs 1000, a firm
distributes a fixed amount of Rs 100 as a dividend. Irrespective of the level of
earnings, this amount would be paid every year. The same is graphically explained
below:
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Constant Dividend Per Share
20 21 20.2
16.5 16 17
10 10.5 11
EPS
DPS
10 10 10
7 7 7
4 4 4
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9
The dividend Payout ratio means the ratio of dividend to earnings. It is represented by
the payment of a fixed percentage of earning as dividend every year. This approach
makes dividend directly proportional to earnings. This policy is in tune with
companies availability of fund to pay dividends. The same is explained graphically
below:
10 12 Series EPS
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10 Series DPS
9
5 8
0
year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
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c) Stable rupee dividend plus extra dividend:
Most of the companies having fluctuating earnings adopt such policy to disburse a
minimum dividend per share with additional dividend. The extra dividend given by
the companies is known as Interim dividend which is followed by regular dividend. In
this type of policy companies pay a constant amount of dividend regularly and perm
it elasticity in the interim dividend. It means the payment of low dividend per share
constantly plus extra dividend in the year when the company earns a sufficient profit.
The main features of this policy are as follows:
This policy helps in creating confidence among the shareholders.
It avoid to the market price of shares‟ fluctuations.
It helps in formation of company goodwill.
It helps in distribution of regular income to the investors.
When companies are not in the position of paying regular dividends to the shareholders,
they resort to irregular dividend. The company deploys this practice due to following
practical reasons:
Unstable profits of the company.
Poor liquidity position of the company.
When the company doesn‟t want to create a dividend paying image.
When business is not growing or company is not in the position of progress.
1.3.4. No dividend:
The Company may use such type of dividend policy due to poor financial conditions and
high requirement of funds for the growing opportunities of the company or for the
working capital necessity. Generally growing firms resort to a policy of paying less or no
dividend and reinvest the profit in them as they are having enough growth opportunities.
The main features and instances of this policy are as follows:
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Introducing a new and rapidly growing organization require quantity of funds to
finance the development programs.
When external financing seems costlier than internal funds.
Where shareholders are agreed for future benefits or they prefer for long-term
capital gains in place of short-term dividend income.
The ownership structure of a company reflects debt and equity ratio of the company,
which is recognized as capital structure of the company. A low dividend payout is
preferred by the companies having advance promoter‟s holding.
Debt and equity are two important components of capital structure the interplay between
these two can be visualized from the context of both dividend policies as well capital
structure high debt will prompt equity share holders to ask the management to reduce it
due to the fear of financial risk on the other hand, from the point of view of dividend
distribution debt holders are not entitled to dividend and therefore with huge debt portion
in capital structure, dividend distribution amount of the firm reduces. The table below
further summarizes the discussion.
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Table 1.2 Ownership Structure Vs Dividend
Type of owner Ship Effect on dividend Distribution
Internal Financing The Dividend is not paid
Debt Financing The Dividend is not paid
Preference Shares The Dividend is paid in fixed proportions
Equity Shares Dividend fluctuates according the dividend policies
and determinants of dividend
Fig. 1.3 Dividend Policy with respect to stage of life cycle in the firm
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1.4.4. Earning pattern.
Generally the dividend is paid in cash and therefore it results in lower liquidity position
of the company paying dividend. However the availability of cash & current assets and
sound financial position supports sound dividend decisions. A dividend is termed as an
expenditure of companies, the greater the availability of funds and the liquidity of the
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firm the better the ability to pay dividends.
New companies and fast growing companies do not pay dividends generally. The income
may be preserved for fulfilling the increased financial needs of future expansion. Small
companies cannot get easy or cheap external financing, these companies have no choice
for dividend payout for expansion program, they ploughed back the profits. Such
Companies pay dividend at low rate and retain a big part of the profits.
Out of four main components of time series one component is a cyclic component which
is popularly known as business cycle these cycles can be as long as 24- 30 years.
Different dividend policies can be adopted in different stages of the business cycle. In
case of boom earnings are high and companies can look for investment in other
opportunities as there is booming all around and go for low dividend payout. In case of
recession earnings are limited and it is better to adopt the policy of higher payout ratio, so
that future prospective e shareholder can be made to remain intact in case of depression,
the situation is worst there is no earning therefore no dividend payout and no any other
investment activity. Finally, in case of recovery firms stars, earning again and as it is
growing again; it prefers low dividend payout and retaining the earnings.
Government policies can also influence dividend policy in certain circumstances. It can
be explained by the fact that the income of the company gets widely affected by the
transformation in, fiscal, labor, control, industrial and other government policies.
Sometimes government controls the distribution of dividend ahead of an assured fraction
in an industry or in every one spheres of business deed as was done in an emergency.
1.4.10. Taxation policy
Tax is also a factor effecting dividend policy. Higher corporate tax will tend to reduce
after tax earnings of a company and there are all chances that its adverse impact on
dividend distribution may be felt. Dividends are in actual fact taxed twice -- once at the
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corporate level, and again when they are paid out to shareholders. High taxation reduces
the income of the companies and as a result the rate of dividend is lowered down.
Sometimes government levies dividend-tax of distribution of dividend beyond a certain
limit. The dividend income is tax free so it is preferred by the investor.
The legal requirements are also considered before the declaration of dividend. Certain
guidelines are prescribed by the companies Act 1956 for the distribution and payment of
dividend. The Indian company Act directs that dividend shall be paid only out of the
current profits or past profits after duly accounting for depreciation. If the government
deems fit in the interest of the public can allow any company to pay dividend for any
financial year out of the profits of the company without providing for the depreciation.
1.4.12. Restrictions in loan agreements
The dividend theories are basically categories in two parts, which is based on the
relevance of dividend of with a firm‟s value and share price and vice versa.
1.5.1. Relevance Theories. As pointed above, there is dividend theories which advocate
value of the firm as well as share price are influenced by dividend decisions. The main
theories in this category are as follows:
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a. Walter‟s Model
b. Gordon's Model
a. Walter‟s Model
The credit of Walter‟s Model goes to Prof J E Walter, the model suggests that dividend
policy almost always affects the value of the firm. His work may be counted among the
earliest theoretical works highlighting the importance between the firm rate of return and
its cost of capital k.
Table 1.4 Walter‟s Model of Dividend
1. Firm finances all investments through retained earning it means debt or new equity are
not issued.
2. The r and k are constant. Where r = rate of return, k = cost of capital.
3. The firm follows the policies of either 100 % payout or 100% retention.
4. The Earnings Per Share and beginning dividend remains constant.
5. The firm has infinite life.
Market Price of a Share
P = Div/k + r (EPS-D) /k /k
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Walter‟s model suggests that growing; prefer low dividend payout, whereas declining
firms prefers high dividend payout.
In above formula Div/k represents the present value of the infinite stream of constant
dividend where as r (EPS-D) /k /k represents the present value of infinite streams of
capital gains.
b. Gordon‟s Model
The model presented by Myron Gordon is an extremely popular model in the literature
for the presentation of dividend theories. According to this model the market value of a
share is equal to the present of infinite streams of dividend received by the shareholders
the same is captured in the formula in the simplified manner:
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says that dividend policies do effect when the value of the share even when r=k .The
basic philosophy about this is that investors prefer earlier dividend than distant (capital
gains) returns. The bird in hand argument also reflects same which means that a bird in
hand is better than two in the bush. The bird in hand argument, first of all put forward by
Krishman.
According to this approach given by MM, under perfect market conditions, the dividend
policy of the firm is irrelevant or does not influence the value of the firm. The major
argument put forward in this theory is that the value of the firm depends on the firm‟s
earnings. It means that when investment decisions of the firm are given dividend decision
is given dividend decisions is no significance as far as the value of the firm concern.
Assumptions of Modigliani and Miller approach: The main assumptions of MM
hypothesis are as follows:
1. The perfect capital market is there where investors behave rationally, and information
is free to all at the same time, no single investor is large enough to affect the market price
of the share.
2. There are no taxes or there is no difference in tax rates applicable to capital gains and
dividend. In other words, we can say that investors value a rupee of dividend as much as
a rupee of capital gain.
3. The investment policy of the firm is fixed
4. There is no risk of uncertainty. It means that investors are in a position to forecast
future prices and dividend with certainty.
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background of these changes or the governing forces behind these changes the answer
lies in the concept of risk and uncertainty, particularly related with the returns from
different shares. A higher volatility refers that a security's value can potentially be spread
out over a larger range of values. It reflects that the price of the security can change
dramatically over a short time period in either direction. A lower volatility means that a
security's value does not alter dramatically, but changes in value at a steady pace over a
period of time.
One popular measure of the relative volatility of a particular stock with respect to market
is known as beta. Generally beta is calculated for a particular stock; however sector
specific beta can also be calculated for different purposes. A beta approximates the
overall volatility of a security's returns against the returns of a relevant benchmark, for
example a stock with a beta value of 1.1 has historically moved 110% for every 100%
move in the benchmark, based on the price level. Conversely, a stock with a beta of .9
has historically moved 90% for every 100% move in the underlying index. The present
research focuses on share price volatility in the power sector as a central theme.
As the present hovers around the power sector of India, it is worthwhile to present the
basic scenario of the sector in the country. As far as operational aspects of power sectors
are concerned, there are three main areas are concerned which are listed below:
Power Generation
Transmission
Distributions
Power generation is concerned with the generation of electric power from sources of
primary energy. This is the first step of consumers of electricity in the electric power
industry. Power is not available in ready-made form in nature and it has to be generated
or in other words it has to be formed. The place where this generation takes place are
known as power plants. Electricity is frequently generated at a power station by
electromechanical generators mainly determined by heat engines fueled by combustion or
nuclear fission, but also by other means such as the kinetic energy of flowing water and
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wind, solar energy. Once power generation is complete now the question of its
transmission and distribution arises. The same is taken into consideration by two different
types of electric lines for the carrying of electricity.
Transmission lines are meant for transmitting power for long distances. Here the voltage
is kept higher to avoid transmission losses. Electric power transmission is the mass
association of electrical energy from a generating location, such as a power plant, to an
electrical substation.
Distribution lines are meant for short distances, here voltage is lower, to facilitate
transport of electricity nearby. You can see them on the side of the street.
Power is among the most debatable and crucial sector of the world economy and India is
not an exception to it. In fact, considering the vast dimensions of Indian economy, this
issue become more complex and contextual. In the same context researcher presents a
brief account of renewable and non renewable energy sources. The source of renewable
energy is as the name suggests, is renewable in nature, it means that the source gets
restored to an original level and situation after the generation of energy. Solar energy,
wind energy, Hydro energy are the examples of renewable energy. Contrary to it,
renewable energy sources are those which cannot be reformed as original, for example
coal, Petroleum, Natural Gas like coal, petroleum gas, etc. on the other hand non
conventional energy resources are those where the source of energy is renewable and
they are not suppose to be exhausted on time. Moreover, they are less expensive and Eco
friendly.
There is one more version of the ongoing classification of energy which draws its
categorization on the basis of becoming the position of an organism. On this basis energy
is classified into two forms, the first is based on the fossil fuel, which is fuel generated by
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natural process like anaerobic decomposition of dead organisms. The peculiar feature of
such fuel is the presence of a large percentage of carbon, petroleum, natural gases in
them. The second is based on non fossil fuel where energy resources are not
decomposition of organic, for example, solar, wind, water energy.
After having elaborated the operational aspects in the power sector in the country, its
mammoth dimensions and ongoing debates on conventional versus non conventional
energy sources in this section researcher plans to focus the power sector scenario through
actual quantitative data from selected companies in this sector. The data relevant to the
theme of the study mostly presented and confine to meaningful tables and charts the main
idea here is to capture the trend in this regards which will help in further analyzing the
data in coming chapters in the study. Through finally leading companies are selected for
the study based on the criteria of market share of these companies. However, in this
section, the relevant information about five companies are being presented. The data is
drawn from their websites. The relevant information is followed:
1.8.1. NTPC
NTPC was formed on November 7, 1975 under the Companies Act. In 2005-Company
has altered its name from National Thermal Power Corporation Ltd. to NTPC Ltd. NTPC
is India‟s largest energy corporation which was incorporated in 1975. The main
background under which NTPC was to speed up power expansion in India. Ever since, its
incorporation NTPC has gained a reputation of being the dominant in Indian power
sector. It started its journey of power generation with the help of fossil fuels, but later it
forayed into generation electricity via hydro, nuclear and renewable energy sources. It is
a public limited company. The significance of NTPC is huge which is recognized as a
Maharatana company in 2010. Only few companies come under the umbrella of
Maharatana companies. Moreover NTPC awarded as Maharatna company in May 2010,
it is one of the few companies to be awarded this status. NTPC performs both the
functions power generation and distribution. Other areas of involvement of NTPC include
Natural gas exploration, production, distribution and transportation. The size of NTPC
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can be judged from the fact. NTPC actively works from 55 locations in India, one
position in Sri Lanka and 2 locations in Bangladesh.
Dividend pattern:
NTPC has adopted the policy of paying both final and interim, both types of dividend,
with stable dividend and additional interim dividend. Interim dividend has been more
fluctuating as it moves between 7.5 to 40 but final dividend moves only between 5 to
17.5. The NTPC has also paid special dividend in 2013 only once.
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Fig. 1.4 NTPC Dividend Pattern
NTPC is following stable, plus extra dividend policy by distributing interim dividend as
extra dividend, as they also declare a special dividend once out of ten observing years.
NHPC Limited came into being in the year 1975. It was established under company act as
a government of India enterprise & public listed company. It falls among a Mini Ratna
Category-I organizations of Indian public sector. It has played significant role in the
advancement of hydropower in the country. Not only it generates electricity, but trades as
well. During Earlier days of its inception, it contributed in the development of
hydroelectric power, however later it expanded its activities to harness sources of energy
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such as wind, solar and tidal, etc. Now it can be said that NHPC works both in the area of
conventional and unconventional.
Dividend pattern:
NHPC is quite regular in paying final dividend, but not so in paying the interim dividend.
NHPC is only paying an interim dividend only started by 2015. Moreover, this interim
dividend has grown ever since then. As far as final dividend, it has fluctuated throughout
the time window of the study.
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NHPC Yearly Dividend Pattern
18
16
14
12
Dividend %
10
8 FINAL DIVIDEND
6
INTERIM DIVIDEND
4
2
0
2017 2016
2015 2014
2013 2012
2011 2010
Dividend Pattern
Four years after its inception, it has started paying dividend paying since 1993. The
Power grid is found to regularly pay final as well as an interim dividend during the span
of the research. The rate of fluctuation is more than that of interim dividend is more
fluctuating rather than final dividend.
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Table : 1.7 Power Grid Corporation Dividend Distribution
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Power Grid Corporation Yearly Dividend
Dividend % Pattern
Interim Dividend
Final Dividend
2017 2016
2015 2014
2013 2012
2011 2010
2009 2008
Tata power was established in 1910, as a part of Tata group, is an electricity utility
established by Dorabji Tata was the founder of Tata Power. The peculiar feature of Tata
power is it is India's largest integrated power company. Other areas of involvement in
Tata power include distribution, exploration of natural gas, transportation of power, etc.
Dividend Pattern:
Tata Power is found not paying an interim dividend during the span of research, but it is
found to pay final dividend regularly throughout the study. Tata power is following the
policy of paying very high dividend the rates vary between 95-130%. The Company
seems to follow a stable dividend policy.
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Table: 1.8 Tata Power Dividend Distribution
FINAL DIVIDEND
17 16
15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8
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1.8.5. Neyveli Lignite Corporation Limited
NLC Ltd had its origins in the exploration of lignite deposits Neyveli, Tamil Nadu. Soon
after lignite deposits were located in Nayveli (NLCIL) incorporated in 1956. It is a
government enterprise and public company. It also comes under 'Navratna' companies in
the country, its main area of involvement in the mining of lignite coupled with and
generation of power through lignite based thermal power plants. Considering the growing
emphasis on non conventional energy resources in the country, NLC has expanded its
functions into the generation of renewable energy through wind power generation and
solar power generation.
Dividend Pattern:
The Neyveli Lignite Corporation India Limited is paying final dividend regularly during
the time period of research, however the same is not true about interim dividend as it has
not been so regular. Interim dividends are distributed in special case and remain
fluctuating during the course of research.
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28-05-2013 Final 18
27-02-2013 Final 10
27-02-2013 Interim 10
28-05-2012 Final 28
27-05-2011 Final 23
27-05-2010 Final 10
04-03-2010 Interim 10
22-06-2009 Final 20
27-05-2008 Final 10
21-01-2008 Interim 10
01-06-2007 Final 12
22-02-2006 Interim 14
23-01-2006 Interim 0
FINAL DIVIDEND
INTERIM DIVIDEND
Fig. 1.8 Neyveli Lignite Corporation India Limited Dividend Distribution Pattern
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1.9. CONCLUSION:
This chapter contributes the introductory aspects of the research. It has mainly focused on
throwing light on the theoretical and the conceptual base. As the research covers the
crucial aspect of linkage between share price and dividend in power sector, it becomes
worthwhile to present the nitty- gritty of literature surrounding divided in a meaning full
manner that too in the context of research. The same has been the philosophy and flow of
this chapter. After having presented the introductory view, conceptual framework of
dividend along with forms of dividend in corporate business are discussed. It is followed
by the deliberation of various dividend policies prevalent in practice. Thereafter,
dividend theories are discussed with particular reference to their relevance or irrelevance
issues. It is followed by discussion on share price volatility, which is measured as the
standard deviation of share price. All this discussion is presented in the context of theme
of the research. After elaborated theoretical and conceptual presentation on a research
theme, details about five leading power sector companies selected for the study is
presented. This presentation is divided into two parts. The first part deals with the finer
aspects of the company and the second part focuses on their respective dividend pattern
during the window of time selected for the research.
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