1.

Read, update and synthesize all relevant materials on the market phenomenon chosen by
your group; document and reference your data by source, date, page, and the like. Explain
why you chose this current turbulent market phenomenon for your analysis. Define also
your “unit of analysis” of the market phenomenon: for instance, in respect to the Case
chosen, is it the entire Case, or any specific component (e.g., the Case from the
management side, the case from the labor or customer side, the case in its inputs versus
process versus outputs, specific major actor or action, and so on) that you choose to
investigate and analyze under the following questions. Why do you choose this unit of
analysis? Justify your choice. [20 marks].

You’d have to be living under a rock, or in a coma, or both, to not have heard of the looming refugee
crisis currently under way, with the scale touted to be bigger than that of the one right after the Second
World War. True, the population then and the population now are way different, but that argument does
not makes things easier for the 68 million people, a number greater than the population of United
Kingdom, who have been displaced for reasons as varying as war, disease, backbreaking poverty, gang
wars, persecution and what not.
The fact that the most devastating conflict in the history of mankind clearly depict the gravity and the
urgency of the situation we find ourselves in, or rather have put ourelves in, because more often than not,
the havoc is man-wreaked.
But in all the brouhaha around the casually throwing around of the term ‘refugee’, finer details are often
overlooked. For instance, one major misconception prevalent among most, perhaps because of the
rampant use of the term “refugee crisis”, is that the number 68 million represents the count of refugees in
the world, which is not the case. A majority of these people are IDPs, or Internally Displaced People,
who, although had to leave their homes, but are living in their own countries, mostly in shelter camps
under pathetic circumstances. As the infographic below shows, the proportion of people who are
‘technically’ refugees or asylum seekers, that is waiting to be given the refugee status, is significantly less
than what is the general uninformed perception. Now, that doesn’t really help or change things, but it sure
does neutralise the usual right-wing cribbing of outsiders/aliens crowding up their countries and sucking
up the welfare state resources, which even if considered true to make things convenient, doesn’t reflect
the whole story.

So, where do these people come from that they are treated like filth that cannot be allowed to enter your
borders? And while usually the crisis currently gets addressed as the ‘Syrian refugee crisis’, Syria isn’t
the only source of emigration of refugees. It is the largest, but not the only. There are a whole lot of other
factors playing themselves out on the global scale that only complicate things. The conflict between the
Taliban and the Afghani government, backed by the U.S. military, is one. The genocide in South Sudan,
the systematic “ethnic cleansing” currently underway in Myanmar of Rohingya Muslims are other
examples. And because unlike World War II, the main driver of the refugee crisis at the time, which when
got over and allies could focus on resettling and rebuilding, today we have multiple crises unfolding at the
same time, which makes it highly unlikely that all of them will end at the same time. This only means that
we are in this for a long time, and this problem is not going away soon, definitely not if we continue to do
what we are doing.
Now that we have seen the sources and reasons for this mammoth problem that we are facing, we need to
look into what happens or should be happening as far as the remedy is concerned. A lot of racist,
xenophobic right-wing propaganda is currently underway, with populist anti-immigrant parties making
their marks even in supposedly liberal places like Europe. Paranoia is ‘manufactured’ in the name of these
“aliens”, who will apparently take your jobs, commit rapes and murders, smuggle drugs and will never be
able to become a social and cultural fit in western contexts.
But how much of this is true? How much is backed by actual data?
This is why we took this case. And this is our unit of analysis.
First and foremost, the foundation of all the above claims needs to be verified. All of the above would
have been justified if majority of these refugees actually landed up in rich western nations, which simply
isn’t the case. Most of the times, when these people do flee their country, they tend to settle in the nearest
relatively stable country they find, which means the onus falls upon poor and middle-income countries to
feed and clothe these refugees. For some context, Turkey is currently the host of around 2.5 million
refugees from Syria, which is the biggest for any country. In comparison, Germany, having population
almost equal to that of Turkey, is the largest host to Syrian refugees among the developed nations has
taken in roughly 600,000. This, even though Germany’s GDP is about 4.5 times that of Turkey. The
Trump administration for 2018 capped the number of refugees from Syria to a mere 45,000, with the
actual number accepted being 14,887. As if that weren’t enough, this year the ceiling has been brought
further down to 30,000, all in the name of national security, with practically no evidence suggesting that
crime rates for immigrants are higher than local-borns. The reverse is actually true. Contrast the situation
with that of Lebanon, a country home to a mere 4.5 million people, but which has taken in 1.1 million
Syrian refugees. That is an increase in Lebanon’s population by a quarter.
And it isn’t that U.S. was letting in a whole lot of refugees from Syria before Trump came up with his
order. The situation was better compared to now, but that does not make it any ‘less bad’ in itself. A
nation that has accepted more refugees than any other country since World War II and takes pride in its
values of being “a melting pot” of people, ethnicities, races, genders, religions with 43 million foreign-
borns calling the country their home, has come to state that has taken fewer people from Syria than its
neighbor Canada that has roughly one-tenth of its population.
Even if we consider that some might be more comfortable doing their bit by means of cash and not kind,
there too we collectively have fallen short of our responsibilities. Humanitarian support provided by
nations worldwide is seriously inadequate considering the impact of the crisis we are trying to deal with.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and its partner agencies were able to garner less
than 17% of the funds they required to fund the various kinds of assistance to millions of Syrians.

More often than not, we know what is right. Sometimes we even want to do that. But it is the human
frailty inherent in us that at times stops us in our tracks. But, like the Academy award winning actress and
a special envoy of the United Nations High Commissioner on Refugees Angelina Jolie has said, “our
response will be the measure of our humanity.”
 2. Apply the Eleven Laws of Systems Thinking (see Chapter 2) as Assurance of Learning
(AOL1) that studies any market phenomenon. Explain each Law and its potential for
explaining and predicting behavior of the phenomena you have chosen for
investigation. Illustrate the application of each Law by past, current or projected
examples. [30 marks]

The Eleven Laws of System Thinking can be used to understand the causes of any market phenomenon or
problem, their inherent structures, and patterned behaviors, and finally the systemic solutions. Each of
these laws has been explained below along with its potential for analyzing the ‘CRISIS OF ASYLUM
MIGRATION’ using various examples-

Law 1: “Today’s Problems come from Yesterday’s Solutions”

According to this law, if short-term, quick-fix or band-aid solutions were used in the past to solve any
issue or problem, it does not effectively resolve the problem but shift it from one system to another. In
that case, the solutions proposed by our ancestors take shape of a new problem for the next generation.
Similarly, the decisions made by us will have a lasting impact on future generations.
Huge traffic was faced by traders in Europe when the vehicles drive to one country from another.
Generally, there was almost a mile-long queue, all waiting for the border patrolling team to allow them to
cross the country border. This made the transit from one country to another in Europe very cumbersome
task in itself. In order to solve this problem, an agreement was signed amongst five of the member states
of European Union known as ‘Schengen Agreement’ in 1990 allowing free trade between these
countries. Currently, 26 countries are part of this agreement.
Under this agreement, there was a complete abolishment of border checks on the countries’ borders.
People can cross one country and enter another country without showing any form of ID. Although
people have to show IDs at the airports for security purposes, still the movement of goods and services
became a lot easier over a period of time.
The Schengen agreement is criticized by many nationalists, who believe that it opens a non-guarded door
for the entry of criminals and migrants. The 13th November 2015 Paris attack prompted an immediate and
urgent need for a rethinking of the agreement as approximately 130 people were killed in this attack.
There is a belief that few of the terrorists were able to enter the state borders so easily from Belgium and
others have entered along with other migrants via Greece.
Also, the influx of more than a million migrants, mostly Syrian refugees in 2015 have increased the
political pressure on various governments and thereby many of the European states have re-imposed
either temporary or permanent border checks in place.

Law 2: “Harder you push, harder the system pushes back”

Every system can be modified or changed up to its permissible limits (which are vague most of the times).
Beyond this point, the system usually shifts from its ideal state and leads to disastrous results. There is
always a well-intentioned agenda behind any kind of intervention but regular interventions can lead to the
system responses which in turn could offset the desired benefits you seek from the intervention.  This
phenomenon is known as ‘compensating feedback’ in systems thinking.
Under the Dublin Regulation, the signatories’ member states of European Union bear the responsibility
for evaluating the asylum claims made by migrants who arrive in Europe. This led to a huge influx of
migrants inside Europe and thereby creating a shortage of resources for European people who started to
oppose the unhindered migration in their respective states.
In 2013, this law was revised in the manner that migrants are the sole responsibilities of entry-point states
and they should remain within that state only. Under the current system, the whole burden of migrants is
disproportionately shifted to entry-point states having exposed borders to other countries. However, many
of these countries have stopped the enforcement of Dublin Regulation and allow migrants to move to the
secondary destinations in northern or western EU.

Law 3: “Behavior grows better before it grows worse”

Low- leverage solutions/investments provide benefits in the short run but soon they result in undesired
outputs which become difficult problems.
For countries with the influx of migrants, the migration program helps in addressing the issue of labor
shortage and results in increased industrialization and productivity. But it may also result in the decrease
of domestic wage and increased burden on the welfare funds in order to provide access to necessary
education, language, and social infrastructure. As per the IMF estimates, around 0.1% of the GDP of the
European Union went to provide various services to the asylum seekers.

Law 4: “The Easy Way Out usually Leads Back In”

Most of the times, we look for and apply familiar solutions to difficult and complex problems due to
comfort associated with it. But it should be always kept in mind that if the concerned solutions were so
simple and easy to find then they would have been found already in the past. We can adopt many short-
term strategies to solve any problem in order to make things look better.  However, the compensating
feedback will surely haunt you in the future. It is generally defined as comfort zone challenge.
Most of the asylum seekers have undergone through physical or mental trauma in their countries of origin
due to violence associated with war. The developed or high-income countries, which serves as the
destination site for these migrants, make sure that the primary health care teams should be in the frontline
for taking care of the health of refugees and asylum seekers.
Many of the associated challenged remain unaddressed like differences in terms of cultural needs,
political favoritism or un-favoritism towards this group, which further inhibit the ability of health care
professionals to provide similar quality care to the refugees like the general population. This results in
healthcare inequalities in the state and sometimes the epidemic situation could arise as a result which may
harm the whole nation.

Law 5: “The Cure can be worse than the Disease”

It is believed that intervention in any system is necessary in order to improve or modify the existing one.
But care should be taken that this process of intervention should not become addictive in nature. Higher
the interventions made, lower will be the ability of a system to adjust on its own. Hence, an optimal level
of interventions is required for the system to run productively and effectively.
Theoretically, refugees have the right to seek asylum in other countries by crossing country borders under
international law. They are exempted from the border checks and controls. But in reality, EU has tried to
prevent their entry by closing down various legal routes to the entry, which results in chaos during their
arrival.
Also, border defense forces produce various problems, which they are supposed to solve for these
refugees, by forcing migrants to take illegal and more dangerous routes to enter. This further results in
increased resistance from the concerned nations. Thousands of the asylum seekers who believe that they
can get a better life in the high-income country actually died in the attempt of entering that nation.

Law 6:  Faster is Slower.

Each system is supposed to have its own unique and optimal speed to work. This concept can be used in
the application of “fixing” things. A fast solution does not provide the desired result or a delayed result
if it is effective. A lot of time is generally spent to find sustainable solutions in terms of innovation of new
solution and adjustment by the community members with respect to associated changes. We should be
wary of overgrowth or faster growths of different organizations as they are the ones which can become
the contestant of bankruptcy law in the future.
The huge volume of inflow of migrant has resulted in enormous pressure on the asylum systems in the
European Union. As a result, different member states try to balance the need for – (i) controlled entry and
improved border security, and (ii) obligations under international law to provide shelter to the people
seeking asylum in their country.
The states have been divided in the manner in which they want to handle this crisis. The constantly
increasing human toll has resulted in a situation of urgency, but the collective response of EU in terms of
increased sanctions has been ad hoc in nature. It is not sustainable in the long run and will not yield the
desired solution. Some critics argue that this response has slowed down the increase of migrants’ inflow
but at the costs of providing protection to the needy and vulnerable people.

Law 7:  Cause and Effect are not closely related in Time or Space
Every action can be associated with a corresponding response, which can be differentiated from the action
with respect to time and space. The real challenge lies in the fact that there is not always a clear and
defined relationship between cause and effect. This is the fundamental characteristic of various complex
systems, which can be human or organizational. Effects can be defined as symptoms indicating the
presence of any problem.  Causes, on the other hand, are the inherent characteristics of the underlying
system, which results in symptoms.
The recent crisis of huge influx of asylum seekers in Europe is not only due to current migrants’ flow
from war-hit regions like Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Many of this can be attributed to events in the
past. During the 1950s and 1960s, movements of people from Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia
to colonial powers due to decolonization resulted in demographic changes in Europe. Even European
countries encouraged this migration in most of the cases in order to use the labor to grow European
economy.
The underlying assumption made was that these migrants will leave the country and return to their home
countries in the future. However, migrants’ flow in Europe had not stopped even after the economic
downturn due to the oil crisis of 1970s. Many of Turkish families move to Germany as a result of family
unification processes. All of these factors were the causes which resulted in the current crisis of asylum
migration.

Law 8:  Small Changes can produce big Results – but the areas of higher Leverage are often the less
obvious.
It is generally said that actions taken at right time and right place makes the biggest impact. The challenge
associated with this concept is that nobody knows when is the correct time and what is the right place.
The only thing that can be done is to properly understand the structure of any system and try to find
various leverage points. Many stakeholders can be involved in this process in order to get a wide
perspective and use collective intelligence.
The European Union has designated Trust Funds for different countries in order to support external
migration. But the trust fund for Africa, especially for North Africa, is going to expire in 2020. Due
consideration is required to find an effective solution to ensure the required financing for the migration
policy. One of the leverage point available and which is under consideration is getting additional support
through other member states’ funding.
Also, the member states can leverage their policies in such a way that the third countries of origin will
cooperate to address the return policies of the concerned migrants. Both formal and informal negotiations
should be pursued to reinforce the required support for reintegration purposes. In cases of continuous
non-cooperation from the third-country side, the member states can work on their current visa policies
that can result in additional leverage to address this issue.

Law 9:  You can have your cake and eat it too – but not at once.
Most of the dilemmas faced in our life are not real dilemmas. This is the result of ‘static thinking’ or
‘snapshot thinking’ instead of ‘process thinking’. If every problem is being seen in a dynamic frame
like a continuous one after studying all the associated processes, then there is no requirement to choose
only one out of the two options. But the actual solution will be choosing both choices at different times.
America is a country with a very inclusive culture i.e. it welcomes people from different countries and
settles on their land to avoid oppression. This was vowed by President Ronald Reagan in 1981. According
to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) global trends report, there has been a
drastic increase in the number of forcefully displaced people in 2017, including 25.4mn refugees. Yet in
this grave situation, Mr. Donald Trump’s administration, just after 9 months into the office, has decided
to close the nation’s doors to asylum seekers by setting the ceiling cap at only 45000.
The country has resettled only close to 15,000 refugees which is the lowest number in the 38-year history
of US. Not only the administration supports migrant interdiction programs in Mexico and Central
America, but also the migrants are denied access to the asylum process by US border officials regularly
deny access to the US asylum process. This is in violation of US law made for the migrants who have fear
of returning home or who request asylum.
This decision was made in silos just looking at the increased crisis of asylum seekers or migrants. But the
immense contribution of these refugees to the American economy has been neglected. Based on the
Center for Migration Studies of New York, the participation of refugees (who arrived in America between
1987 and 2016) in labor force is more compared to the non-refugees or the total American population.
Also, it did not take into consideration the fact that many other countries look up to high-income
countries like the USA to work on the refugee or migrant welfare programs. This anti-migrant sentiment
and exclusionary nationalism can encourage other countries to follow the suit. Such policies will be
disastrous not only for America alone but for the whole world.

Law 10:  Dividing an Elephant in half does not produce two Elephants
The worst way to find a solution is dividing the system into different parts and then analyzing them
independently. The inability to look at the system as a single unit can result in a series of problems. This
does not convey the message that you cannot or should not work within specified boundaries; it just
indicates that it would be ideal to stay aware of the whole system and various types of associated
interactions and perspectives.
If we look at the responses of different nations to address the crisis of asylum migration, we can see that
they frame this crisis, not a worldwide crisis but mostly its impact on the West. Hungary wishes to build a
wall along the Serbian border. Britain and France label the migrants as ‘illegal’ based on the country
where they want to apply as asylum seekers. These countries are forcing Greece and Italy to take care of
the crisis on their own, in a situation when their public services and charity funds are already over-
exhausted.
Politicians argue that the country does not have the resources and capacity to give shelter to everyone and
spend many weeks discussing what they should pay, and for whom, and how to stop the flow. In this
whole discussion, they neglect thousands of PEOPLE waiting to enter another nation looking for settling
their life again, living in overcrowded asylum centers with poor or no sanitation and health related
facilities, gone through huge trauma due to huge violence experienced, and who have taken a risk to leave
their home countries and gone through difficult journeys to reach these camps.

Law 11:  There is no blame

Every component and individual within any system are inter-connected and are responsible for co-
creation of the whole system. Generally, we don’t tend to take responsibility of something that seems to
be out of control and we respond by blaming, defying or denying. It seems like that sometimes the
interaction involves competing ideas making it feel uncomfortable. But it should be kept in mind that the
solutions only lie in coordination not blaming.
Various European Union ministers and member states have been accusing Greece that it is not able to
complete its job of analyzing asylum applications and controlling the flow of migrants inside its border.
Also, they are refusing to help Greece in its assistance program. On the other hand, Greek officials claim
that they have been left on their own to take care of this grave situation and it is not possible for them to
provide services to the millions of migrants.
In this scenario, it is difficult to judge who is doing correct but it is clear that hundreds of thousands of
needy people’s lives are at stake due to this finger-pointing situation. Instead of wasting time and energy
in this blame game, all parties should focus on providing assistance to these asylum seekers and resolving
the misery.
3. As Assurance of Learning (AOL2) that studies any market phenomenon, create at least
two Laws of your own similar to the Eleven System Laws for explaining and predicting
market behavior that is not covered by the Eleven Laws. Explain each new Law and its
potential for explaining and predicting behavior of the phenomena you have chosen for
investigation. Illustrate the application of each Law by past, current or projected
examples. [20 marks]

Law 1: Shifting the blame to the intervener does more harm than good
In most of the scenarios we observe the recipient shifting the blame to the intervener. This is a way of
running away from one’s duties and not trying to be responsible for that particular situation. In this case,
the recipient doesn’t look at the whole picture and instead on the immediate benefits. It tries to view the
problem from its own perspective instead of looking it from a system’s/world perspective.
Australia has been blamed multiple times of sending the asylum seekers back to their places of origin
including Indonesia instead of fulfilling its international humanitarian obligation of receiving and
resettling these refugees and provide them a safe abode. Australia also has a Regional Resettlement
Agreement signed with Papua New Guinea(called PNG solution) according to which any asylum seeker
who arrives in Australia without a valid visa would be refused asylum in Australia instead being settled in
Papua New Guinea if they are found to be legitimate refugees. The conditions at Australian Immigration
detention facility at Nauro was touted as “appalling” by Amnesty International. This transfer of sending
the asylum seekers to these poorly maintained detention centres at Papua New Guinea is a way of shifting
burden. Thus such systems instead of solving the problem of asylum seekers instead aggravates it and
gives cue to other countries to follow suit.
PNG has been pressurizing Australia for time immemorial to take up its responsibility and rehabilitate the
migrants since most of these are not looking to settle down in PNG and have been subjected to robberies
and violence against them. In Oct 2016, Australia closed down these detention centres and planned to
transfer these migrants to 3 new facilities in PNG where it will provide them healthcare, monetary and
security benefits. Almost 700 migrants refused to move from the detention centres in fear of uncertainty.
These conditions have been stuck at the same point since then.
Thus, Australia is blaming other countries like Indonesia and now PNG instead of coming up with a
proper migration rehabilitation policy and running away from its duties and using PNG as a temporary
solution which is both unsafe and inhumane. This is not only having harmful effects on the migrants who
have been again rendered homeless and forced to live a life of uncertainty but in fact also on the image of
Australia on the global stage. Australia is being touted as running away from its international
commitments. Thus, any country should try to rehabilitate the refugees to the best of their abilities instead
of playing blame-game which proves to be disastrous both for the refugees and the country in question.

Law 2: Chaos can sometimes lead to Coherence

Stability and instability, Order and Disorder are the various degrees in which a system moves between.
When the disorder, or chaos, becomes too great, things fall apart. When the order is too rigid, things
cannot grow or develop. Yet a certain degree of instability, or the edge of chaos, can also be a powerful
moment of creative change. Therefore: Seek coherence within chaos.
It has been widely proclaimed that asylum seekers are a burden for the host country and do not contribute
anything while using up the resources. In a recent report which has analysed 30 years’ worth of economic
and migration data, it has been revealed that asylum seekers also have a positive impact on the economy
of the host country although they take longer than migrants. They contribute positively when the taxes
paid by them exceeds public spending.
Makers Unite is an initiative which has received a seed funding of €10,000 and expert guidance. This
start-up is a venture of a refugee who now aims to help the other refugees with a creative mind-set to
upscale items from the humanitarian crisis into fashionable bags and other creative accessories etc. This
initiative is providing the refugees with their long lost dignity and an opportunity to start their life afresh.
Reframe Refugees is a photo agency run by refugees which produces and publishes photos of present and
older refugees to give a fair perspective of the plight of the refugees and also depicting success stories of
refugees who have gone through the crisis and came out victorious and are now living a respectable life.
Most of these refugees come from conflict prone countries like Syria, Iraq, South Sudan or from countries
which lack basic amenities to live or worsening economic conditions like Greece etc. For such people,
restarting their life at a foreign land is like a chance to restart their lives and gain livelihood. For them,
this chaos which led them to migrate has led them to a brighter future and brought coherence in their
lives. They can also afford to dream and aim for equal opportunities in the time to come.
Analysts have predicted that the recent outcry over the migrant inflow in Europe is in fact an economic
opportunity instead of a crisis. It was found that the flow of asylum seekers and permanent migrants,
respectively had positive effects on EU countries by significantly increasing their per capita GDP, lower
unemployment, improved government finances and a public spending which is more than compensated
by the increased taxes collected. Though the positive effects would take almost 5-7 years to show but they
are most likely to be beneficial for these countries in the longer run.
The above examples portray how the chaos has led to coherence for millions of asylum seekers
worldwide.
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