Merle Gering

Chair of Coventry and Warwickshire Green Belt Guardian Groups

87 Somers Rd
Coventry, CV7 8LS
merle@waitrose.com

25 July 2017

Mr. Kevin Ward,

Inspector
Warwick District Local Plan

Dear Mr Ward,

I am writing to you a brief note, at this late stage, to supply important new evidence,
available only in the last week.

“Existing Migration Data is wholly inadequate”

“The International Passenger Survey cannot be relied upon to provide accurate

estimates of net migration”

House of Lords Economics Affairs Committee.

Brexit and the Labour Market
21 July 2017

1) The infallibility of ONS. Coventry Council and GL Hearn treat ONS mid-
year estimates as infallible. Here is the evidence that they CANNOT be
regarded as infallible, particularly in relation to international migration.

a. in a new report published today, 21 July 2017, “Brexit and the

Labour Market” The Economics Committee of the House of Lords
criticised existing migration data, which has a large margin of
error, as "wholly inadequate".
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201719/ldselect/ldeconaf/11/110
2.htm
b. They write “Increasing reliance has been placed upon the migration
statistics to formulate and judge government policy. Many of the
available measures are wholly inadequate. In particular, the long-
standing and widely identified problems with the International
Passenger Survey mean that it cannot bear the burden placed upon it
and cannot be relied upon to provide accurate estimates of net
migration”

c. Regarding students, they say the government must “Devise a

better way of accounting for the departure of international
students. The current approach cannot calculate, with any
 precision, how many students stay at the end of their
degree.”
d. Members of the Lords Committee are highly distinguished public
servants: 2 former Chancellors of the Exchequer, a former
Permanent Secretary to the Treasury, a former Cabinet Secretary
and Head of the Civil Service, etc.
e. ONS themselves, in the email from Tim Pateman, ONS Senior
Researcher Population Estimates, dated 2 July 2017, concede
that they have “difficulty in capturing the out-migration of students” – the
email is quoted in full below.
f. You will be aware, that 95% of all net population growth in
Coventry is attributed to international migration – A local plan
entirely based on unreliable and implausible figures, cannot be
sound.

2) Exaggerated Birth and Death Figures

a. Latest ONS birth and death figures for 2016, released on 19 July 2017,
confirm for one more year, that GL Hearn is overestimating births, and
underestimating deaths, by 1000+ per year net. Over 20 years, this
effect alone adds 20,000 wrongly to the population. See the chart A
below

b.
Table A: Real Births and deaths are much lower than GL Hearn claim
 3) The extraordinary implausibility of the ONS projected growth figures for
Coventry, as shown by the tables below:
a. Table B: A huge disparity of growth in Coventry and all surrounding
towns and cities; No one can explain why a huge population explosion
should occur in Coventry only.
b. Table C: mediocre jobs growth in Coventry, - The predicted growth
cannot be jobs led. Other towns are doing far better.
c. Table D: middling population growth of Coventry, based on census
data, for 1981-2001 and 1991-2011 – the most recent 20 year periods
when accurate census data is available, History gives no evidence of
exceptional population growth in Coventry
d. Table E – middling population growth of Coventry, in the most recent
census period, 2001-2011.

There is no evidence for a population explosion in Coventry. Stable

cheap House Prices confirm that there is no need for 2000+ homes per
year. 930/year has been perfectly adequate to supply demand and
keep prices low.

An Oxford Professor of Demography, Prof David Coleman has

confirmed our detailed analysis that miscounting of students is hugely
inflating the ONS/Hearn projections.

To have a sound plan, it is now essential to have a completely independent re-

assessment of the population projections and housing numbers.

Chart B - A huge disparity of projected growth in Coventry and surrounding

towns and cities
Chart C - Mediocre jobs growth in Coventry

Chart D: Historic Population Growth, 20 year periods, census data

 Chart E – Most recent Census data, 2001-2011, actual growth.

West Midlands population growth, actual census

16.0%
data 2001-2011,
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Newcastle-under-…

Staffordshire…

Nuneaton and…
Dudley

Rugby
North Warwickshire

South Staffordshire

Tamworth
Malvern Hills

Wychavon

Telford and Wrekin

Wolverhampton
Cannock Chase

Bromsgrove
Redditch
Lichfield
Stratford-on-Avon
Stafford

East Staffordshire
Wyre Forest

Stoke-on-Trent

Solihull

Worcester
Walsall

Sandwell
Warwick
Coventry

Birmingham
The email from Tim Pateman, ONS Senior Researcher

-------- Forwarded Message --------

Subject:Re: Coventry student population
Date:Mon, 3 Jul 2017 08:48:08 +0000
From:Pateman, Tim <tim.pateman@ons.gov.uk>
To:Pop Info <pop.info@ons.gov.uk>, keith@greennuneaton.org.uk
<keith@greennuneaton.org.uk>

Hi Keith

Thank you for your query. Some of the pattern shown in your graph will be related to the
difficulty in capturing the out-migration of students which we do believe to be an issue in the
mid-year estimates for a number of local authority areas. However, it is useful for me to set
out how we explain the quality of the estimates, and our plans to calculate student out-
migration on a different basis in future. I also need to explain that international migration is
likely to be a substantial cause of the change you have pointed out as well.

Appendix 12 of our recently released methodology report is a good source of information

about internal out-migration of students being difficult to measure, and what we're planning
to do about it. This shows that although internal migration methods were improved in 2012
there is still scope for further improvements. Students increasingly do register with a GP on
arrival, as this is encouraged by the universities themselves; however a sizeable proportion,
especially of male students, do not then promptly register with a GP in the area they move to
on leaving university. In some cases students will have been registered at their parents'
address and simply continue to appear there in the estimates; in others the student will have
appeared to stay in the local authority in which they lived while studying for a longer period
than they are actually resident. Eventually, most higher education leavers do register with a
GP and we then pick up an outward move, however this will occur in the wrong year and the
move will be for someone of the wrong age. Further details of this issue can be found in the
section on internal migration here.

Our research suggests that most higher education leavers update their patient register within
3 years of their move. Our proposed new method takes analysis of these changes of
address over 3 years to create a matrix of destinations for each local authority by sex. This
means that for the population estimates from mid-2017 onwards, and the back-series that
will accompany them to go back to mid-2011, we will have moved people at student ages out
of Coventry over and above the level that current patient register data directly shows. This
will create some 'spurious' moves, but will give an overall improvement in internal migration,
especially for areas with large flows of students.

It is important to say, however, that net internal migration, over the past 5 years, is negative
for Coventry overall, but is net positive for the cohort aged 20-29 in 2011. It is worth
contrasting the relative impacts of internal migration and international migration on the
Coventry population. For the cohort of people aged 20-29 in 2016, net internal migration
over the past 5 years was estimated to be +1,353 while net international migration was
estimated to be +17,002.

Detailed numbers by age and sex are available in our detailed timeseries table MYEB2;
however the best illustration of this is the maps we published last week in the mid-year
population estimate bulletin. These show that Coventry is experiencing a much higher rate of
net international migration than surrounding areas. Just over half of this is from people aged
20-29. The mid-year estimates should therefore show a changing population structure for
Coventry, and the animated population pyramids in the same bulletin show that the way the
structure has changed since the last census (mid-2011) is not broadly a continuation of the
change seen between the 2001 and 2011 censuses.

More quality information is available with this release than in previous years. The quality
indicators show that of the populations that can lead to quality issues, several are high or
moderately high in Coventry, not just the student population. Uncertainty measures are also
available for mid-2012 to mid-2015. While these can be awkward to interpret they do
illustrate, for example, how the uncertainty around the estimate is increasing as we move
further beyond the census year; and that international migration is the biggest contributor to
the uncertainty for Coventry.

Kind regards,

Tim

Tim Pateman | Senior Research Officer | Population Estimates Unit | Population Statistics Division | Office for National
Statistics PO15 5RR
Phone: 01329 444783 | Email: tim.pateman@ons.gov.uk | http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html

From: Keith Kondakor [mailto:keith@greennuneaton.org.uk]

Sent: 22 June 2017 13:36
To: Pop Info <pop.info@ons.gov.uk>
Subject: Coventry student population
Hi Neil.

The population estimates for Coventry clearly show the massive impact of 2
universities (Coventry and university of Warwick) in the city. The 2011 population is
based on the census and seems accurate for the city. Clearly in a June estimate
most new students have turned 19th being around 9 moths from starting. It seems
the ONS is massively under-estimating how many students leave the city after
graduation. The universities are bigger and we have other immigration which would
result in a taller spike at 19 years old and a broadening. The amount staying in the
city is no where near as high as you show. A good indicator is the massive reduction
in births in the city since 2011. In the 5 years from 2011 to 2016 you are estimating a
30% increase in 20-29 year olds but a 6% drop in births. That is not probable .

Keith Kondakor
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Merle