Population Dynamics-I

Lesson 3.2A
 Objectives
After completing this lesson, students should be able to:

• Define population change(growth)

• Know the history of world population growth
• Differentiate between exponential and linear growth
• Interpret current trends of human population growth
• Calculate population change, crude birth rate , crude death
rate and rate of natural increase
• List factors affecting population growth, birth rates and
death
• Appreciate population growth patterns in the UAE
 World Population Calculator
• http://www.worldometers.info/world-populati
on/

• https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/
2013/10/a-real-time-map-of-births-and-
deaths/280609/
• http://www.theworldcounts.com/counters/sh
ocking_environmental_facts_and_statistics/w
orld_population_clock_live
 Definition

• Population dynamics means changes that

occur in human population
• Any change in the size of population is known
as population growth
• It can be a positive or a negative growth
History of Human Population Growth
Past & Present

Data from the World Bank and United Nations, 2008

 World Population Growth
Date Years between Population
1800 1 billion
130
1930 2 billion
30
1960 3 billion
14
1974 4 billion
13
1987 5 billion
12
1999 6 billion
12
2011 7 billion 6
What Factors Drive Population Change

• Number of Births
• Number of Deaths
• Net Migration (immigration & emigration)
 How to Calculate Population Change
• We can calculate population change of an area by
subtracting the number of people leaving a population
(through death & emigration) from the number of people
entering it (through birth & immigration) during one year:

Population Change= (Births + Immigration)- (Deaths + Emigration)

• When (Births + Immigration) exceed (Deaths + Emigration),

population increases
• When (Deaths+ Emigration), exceed (Births+ Immigration),
population decreases
 Population Change: Example
• If in Country A in 2013, there were 5000 births, 1500
deaths, newly arrived expatriates of 300 and departing
expatriates of 500, what was the change in
population?

Population change= (Births + Immigration) - (Deaths + Emigration)

= ( 5000 + 300 ) – (1500 + 500)

= (5300 ) – (2000)
= 3300 “positive change”
Therefore, population has increased 9
 Crude Birth Rate
• Crude Birth Rate (CBR): number of live births
per 1000 people in a population in a given
year

Total # of Births
CBR = ---------------------- X 1000
Total population
 Crude Birth Rate: Example
• In 2012, there were 3,250 births in a city with population of 223,000.
Calculate its Crude Birth Rate (CBR):

Total # of Births
CBR= ---------------------- X 1000
Total population

CBR = 3,250 X 1000

223,000

CBR = 14.57

So, there were 14.57 births for every 1,000 people in the city.
 
 Crude Death Rate
• Crude death rate (CDR): number of deaths per
1000 people in a population in a given year

Total # of Deaths
CDR = ---------------------- X 1000
Total population
 Crude Death Rate: Example

In the year 2010, the UAE recorded a total population of

8,264,000 and 17,023 deaths.

17,023
CBR = ---------------- X 1000 = 2.06
8,264, 000

So, there were 2.06 deaths for every 1,000 people in the city.
 CBR & CDR in Various Countries
COUNTRY CBR CDR

UAE 16 1

USA 13 8

NIGERIA 42 13

World Population Data Sheet, 2013

 Rate of Natural Increase
• Definition: percentage of population growth in a year
CBR – CDR
RNI = -----------------
10

Example: If CBR = 5 and CDR = 3

RNI = 5 - 3 = 0.2%
10
Calculate Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)

– UAE: CBR=15.87; CDR: 2.06

– Canada: CBR=10.28; CDR: 7.98

– China: CBR=12.29; CDR=7.03

 Factors that Affect Birth Rates

• Poverty: children can be a source of income for parents in

developing countries so - more children
• Lack of pension support: children can support their parents in
old age if pension support is not available in developing
countries so - more children
• Access to family planning services so - less children
• Cost: children are expensive to raise and educate in
developed countries so - less children
• Access to education and employment opportunities: if
women are educated and working they marry late so- less
children
• Age at first reproduction: if women are educated and working
they will have children at a later age so - less children
 Factors that Affect Death Rates
• Decreased food supplies/poor nutrition
• Poor medical services (immunizations, antibiotics)
• Unsafe water supplies
• Poor sanitation

The following indicators are used to assess mortality (deaths):

• Crude Death Rate
• Infant Mortality Rate (out of every 1000 births, the number of babies
who die before their first birth day)
• Life expectancy at birth (the average number of years a new born
infant can expect to live)
 Population Dynamics
Where in the World is the population
Billions
increasing faster?
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
Less Developed Regions
3
2
1
More Developed Regions
0
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Reference: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
World Population Growth
World Population Growth Rate

United Nations, World Population Prospects, 2004

The rate of growth is the change in population size over time.
The population size in the world is increasing, but the rate of growth is decreasing; meaning each year
the population is growing at a slower rate. This means that even though the population size is
increasing, the growth is at a smaller percentage.
 UAE Population Growth
Year Growth Rate UAE Population
1970 248,000
1975 125% 557,887
1980 86.77% 1,042,000
1985 24.76% 1,379,000
1990 36.38% 1,773,000
1995 35.98% 2,411,000
2000 34.67% 3,247,000
2005 26.39% 4,104,000
2010 101.36% 8,264,000
2016* 10.37% 9,121,167

Source: UAE National Statistics Bureau

*Source: UAE Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Authority
 UAE Population by Nationality and Gender
(Estimate-2016)

UAE Population by Nationality – Estimate 2016

Emirati Expatriate Total
1.3 million 7.8 million 9,121,167

UAE Population by Gender-Estimate 2016

Male Female Total
6,298,294 (69%) 2,822,873 (31%) 9,121,167

Source: UAE Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Authority

 UAE Population
2018
• www.worldometers.info/world-population/uni
ted-arab-emirates-population/

• http://countrymeters.info/en/United_Arab_E
mirates