COURSE NAME: STATISTICAL DEMOGRAPHY

COURSE CODE: STA 420

GROUP 5 TITTLE: MEASURE OF FERTILITY

GROUP MEMBERS
NAME REG NO TEL SIGN
BENAYA MWENDA AST/M/0011/2020 0714258966
DOMINIC SHISIA AST/M/0054/2020 0794416859
KAMUTI MARGARET MUSENYA AST/M/0009/2020 0798271913
ODHIAMBO BRIGTONE MBOYA AST/M/0070/2020 0768391502
PURITY CHEROTICH AST/M/0019/2020 0799987219
 MEASURES OF FERTILITY

Introduction
Fertility: It is the actual birth performance of a group of women.
It may also be defined as the frequency with which the birth occur in a total population.
Fecundity: It is the physiological ability of women to reproduce.
Fertility transitive: This concept describes the shift from high birth rates and high death rates to low
birth rates and death rates, which is often associated with socio-economic
development.
Fertility intentions: The desire of individuals or couples to have children.
Infertility: The inability to conceive or carry a pregnancy to term despite regular, unprotected sexual
intercourse.
Fertility rate: Refers to quantitative measurement of the number of live births that occur within a
given population during a specific time period, typically exposed as the number of births per 1000
women of child bearing age (usually between 15 and 49 years) within that population during that time
frame.

USES OF FERTILITY DATA

1. Demographic analysis- It is a fundamental to demographic research, helps demographers
understand population growth or decline, age structure and the potential for future changes in
population size.
2. Population projection- Government and organizations use fertility data to make projections
about future population sizes and age distribution which are essential for planning healthcare,
education and social structures.
3. Family planning projections- It helps to implement family planning initiatives.
4. Healthcare planning- It is used in healthcare system to estimate future demands for maternal
and child health care services e.g Polio vaccination.
5. Economic planning- Understanding fertility patterns can aid in economic planning by predicting
the size of the labor force and workforce demographics.
6. Education planning- Educational institution use fertility data to predict student enrollments and
educational needs in different age groups.
7. Gender equality- It is used in addressing gender related issues such as empowerment of women
and their participation in the labor force.
8. Environmental sustainability- Used to assess the environmental impact of consumption and
carbon emission.

Sources of fertility data

i. Census and surveys e.g Kenya Demographic Health Survey, Us bureaus.

ii. Health ministry and departments.
iii. Academic institutions.
iv. Online databases.
v. Research paper and journals e.g 2022 Murang’a and Kwale Family Survey done by NCPD.
vi. Non-governmental organizations.
vii. Government reports.
viii. Historical records.
ix. International organizations e.g UN, World Bank, WHO.
x. National Statistical agencies e.g KNBS.
 Factors affecting fertility (Decrease)
i. Age
ii. Previous pregnancy
iii. Lifestyle factors such as psychological stress
iv. Weight I.e Underweight and overweight
v. Smoking
vi. Caffeine consumption
vii. Timing and frequency of sexual intercourse

Factors associated with increased fertility

i. Mothers preference of family status.
ii. Social pressure from kin friends and family to have more children.
iii. Happiness
iv. Illegation of abortion
v. Immigration.
vi. Preferred gender.
vii. Illiteracy.
viii. Favorable government policy. (Japan)

MEASURES OF FERTILITY
Measures of fertility refer to the statistical indicators and metrics used to assess and understand the
reproduvctive pattern/ trends and capabilities of a population.
These measures provides insights into how many children are being born, at what rate and under what
circumstances.
These measures help demographers and policy makers to track and understand fertility trends, which
have significant implications for population growth, aging and socio-economic development of a
country.
They are grouped as follows;
i. Period Measures of Fertility (Period fertility rate)
It is a statistical measure that assess the level of fertility in a population during a specific period
of time, typically a year.
They include:
a) Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
b) General Fertility Rate (GFR)
c) Child Woman Ratio (CWR)
d) Age Specific Fertility Rate
ii. Cohort Measures of Fertility
These measure are related to the number of children ever born to women up-to certain period of
time in the reproductive span of life.
They include;
a)Total Fertility Rate
b)General Marital Rate
c)Gross Reproductive Rate
d) Net Reproductive Rate

Methods of Period Measures of fertility

1. Crude Birth Rate(CBR)
It is the number of live births per 10000 people in a given population within a specific time
period usually a year.
 This provides an overall overview of the number of births in a population without considering
age specific of other demographic factors such as migrations, gender distribution, age
distribution and population size.
It is called Crude because it does not take into the age or sex distribution of population, making
it a basic and straight forward indicator of fertility.
The formula for calculating CBR is as follows:

CBR=(No of Live Births in a year/Total Population) x 1000

Example 1
The KNBS officials conducted a survey on Oloigoi county in 2019 and found out that the county had a
population of 500224 of which 12015 were babies. Calculate the CBR of the county.
Sol
CBR=(No of Live Births in a year/Total population)x 1000
(12015/500224) x 1000
=24.019 births per 1000 people

This means that for every 1000 residents of Oloigoi county there were 24.019 live births.

Example 2
A country called Demaland has a population of 1000000 citizens. In the year 2022, Demaland recorded
a total of 20000 live births. Calculate the Crude Birth Rte of the region.

Sol
CBR=(No of live births in a year/Total Population) x 1000
(20000/1000000) x 1000
=20 Births per 1000 people
This means that for every 1000 residents of Demaland, there were 20 live births.

Example 3
The following is an information obtained from Murang’a county with a total population of 301250.
Calculate their CBR.
Age Bracket (years) No of Women No of live births
15-19 37000 1100
20-24 30000 3750
25-29 27000 2970
30-34 23000 2070
35-39 18000 720
40-44 9000 180
45-49 6000 9
TOTAL 150000 10799

Sol
CBR= (B/P) x 1000 Where B is the total live births and P is the Total population
=(10799/301250) x 1000
=35.85 live births per 1000 people
This means that for every 1000 residents there were 35.85 live births

Advantages

i. It is simple to calculate.
ii. Stability- CBR is less sensitive to changes in age structure. This makes it stable measure over
time.
iii. Comparison- It allows for comparison between different regions or countries, helping
researchers and policy makers identify variations in birth rates and potential trends.

Disadvantages
i. Not good for comparing fertility across population as variation in age distribution of the
population being compound would affect Birth Rate.
ii. Lack precision- CBR doesn’t account for age distribution of women of child bearing age within
the population hence being influenced by changes in the age structure.
iii. Lack of detail- CBR doesn’t provide a detailed picture of fertility patterns I.e not considering
age specific fertility which can be very significantly within a population.
iv. Doesn’t reflect population size- It can be misleading when comparing birth rates between
populations of vastly different sizes since it’s a raw rate per 1000 people. A small population
with a high birth rate may have a lower impact than a large population with a lower birth rate.

2. General Fertility Rate (GFR)

This is a demographic measure that assess fertility within a specific population, typically of
women of child bearing age, often age bracket (15-49 years).
It measures the number of live births per 1000 women in this age group during a particular
period of time, usually a year.
The GFR provides more refined view of fertility compared to the crude birth rate, as it focuses
on women who are most likely to give birth.
The formula for calculating GFR is as follows;

GFR=(No of Live Births in a year/No of Women age(15-49) in the population) x 1000

Example 1
In a city, there are 1000 births in a year and a number of women aged 15-49 in the population was
20000. Calculate the GFR.
Sol

GFR= (1000/20000) x 1000

=50 births per 1000 women aged 15-49
This means that for every 1000 women there were 50 live births

Example 2
Suppose you have data on the number of live births and the number of women of childbearing age (15-
49) in a specific region over a year. The data is grouped into 5 year age intervals. Calculate the GFR.
 Age group No of births No of women in this age group
15-19 200 2000
20-24 400 3500
25-29 600 4000
30-34 450 3800
35-39 250 2200
40-44 100 1000
44-49 50 500
Total 2050 17000

Sol
GFR=(Total live births/Total women of child-bearing age) x 1000
=(2050/17000) x 1000
= 120.59 births per 1000 women of child bearing age
This means that for every 1000 women of child bearing age was 120.59 live births.

These examples illustrates that the General Fertility Rate is useful measure for assessing fertility within
a specific subgroup of the population of women of reproductive age.
It can vary between regions and over time an and provides valuable information to researchers to
understand and address population trends and needs related to child birth and family planning.

Advantages
i. Age-specific focus- Unlike CBR, the GFR specifically focuses on women of child bearing age.
ii. Useful for policy planning- Policy makers ,healthcare providers and family planning
organizations find GFR valuable for planning and implementing programs related to maternal
and child health.
iii. Forecasting future trends I.e population growth, Research and Academic analysis.
Disadvantages
i. Age group limitation- GFR focuses solely on women aged 15-49. Therefore not capturing the
speculation of fertility within a population.
ii. Limited to women only- It doesn’t account for male.
iii. It ignores unmarried women.
iv. It is influenced by population age structure.

3. AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE (ASFR)

Age Specific Fertility Rate is the number of births occurring to mothers of certain age group per 1000
women in that age group in a given period of time.
ASFR is usually calculated for women aged 15-49 in each 5 year age group
Age pattern of child bearing in any population is the best revealed computing age specific fertility.
ASFR is computed as a ratio.
The formulae for calculating this is as follows;

ASFR(nfx)= ∑ (nBx/nWx) Where nBx – No of births to the women of ages x to x+n years in a
given year and area.
nWx - No of women aged x to x+n years at mid year in a
given year and area. N is usually taken as 5 years.
 Example

Age group Female population Number of births ASFR (C2/B2) X1000

15-19 2528642 190047 75.16
20-24 2195230 288428 131.39
25-29 2035814 274445 134.81
30-34 1746412 196776 112.67
35-39 1630264 119822 73.50
40-44 1385832 46342 33.44
44-49 1119776 13640 12.18
Total 12641970 1129500 573.15

Advantages
Unlike the Crude Birth Rate, the ASFR is unaffected by differences or changes in a population age
distribution.

Disadvantages
(a) Age specific fertility rates require detailed data on the number of births by age or age group of
mother and data on the no of women of child bearing age , by age or age group, data that are
seldom available in developing countries.
(b) ASFR can not be used to calculate population growth rates or natural increase rates.

4. Child Woman Ratio (CWR)

This is the ratio of children under 5 per 1000 women of reproductive age.
Usually calculated by dividing the no of children in the age group 0-4 (of both sexes) by the no of
women of reproductive age (15-49 years)
It is also known as total fertility rate which represent the number of children a woman is expected to
have on average during her life time.
One of the example is the Japan update of 2021, it had a lower Total fertility rate of around 1.36.
This means that, on average, a woman in Japan was expected to have 1.36 children in her lifetime.
This low TFR is one of the factors contributing to Japan’s aging population and demographic changes.
CWR= (Living children age 0-4/Women aged 15-49)

Example 1
In a family with 2 children and 1 mother, the child to woman ratio is 2:1

Example 2
In a rural village, there are 300 children under the age of 5, and there are 150 women of child bearing
age. Calculate the CWR
Sol
CWR=(Living children age 0-4/Women aged 15-49)
=300/150
=2
This means that there are 2 children under 5 years old for every woman of reproductive age.
Advantages
The provide estimates of TFR; they require only simple data on the distribution by age and sex of the
population.

Disadvantages
It’s problem as a true measure of fertility is with the numerator, it misses children who have died.
It is normally a figure below one.

Method of Cohort Measures of Fertility

1. Total Fertility Rate
Is the sum of the age specific birth rates (5 year age groups between 10-49) for female residents of a
specified geographical area during a specified time period multiplied by 5.
Usually calculated by;
TFR= (∑ASFR) x 5
where ASFR is each 5 year age specific birth rate defined as (BX/PX) x 1000
BX is the number of live births to mothers age x
PX is the number of resident women age x

Example
Age Group 2000 births 2000 female Gross rounded ASBR
population
10-14 300 165000 1.8
15-19 1100 179000 61.5
20-24 20000 192000 104.2
25-29 22000 222000 99.1
30-34 20000 213000 93.9
35-39 10000 212000 47.2
40-44 2000 210000 9.5
45-49 500 200000 2.5
TOTAL 419.7

∑ASBR= 419.7
TFR = 419.7×5
=2098.5 live births per 10000 female state residents in 2000 who live through their reproductive
years.

Remarks: For the age group 10-14 and 45-49, births to ages under 15 and 49 are used.

2. General Marital Fertility Rate (GMFR)

Is a demographic measure that calculates the fertility rate specifically among married women within a
population.
The formulae for calculating GMFR is as follow;

GMFR= (No of live births to married women/No of women) x 1000

Example
Suppose we have data for a specific year 2018. The number of live births to married women in that
year is 2500 and the number of married women in the population in that year is 10000. Calculate the
GMFR.
Sol
GMFR=(No of live births to married women/No of women) x 1000
= (2500/10000) x 1000
=250

In this fictional example, the GMFR is 250 per 1000 married women. This means that in that specific
year, there were 250 live births for every 1000 married women in the population.

3. Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)

Is the average number of daughters a woman would have if she survived all of her childbearing which
is roughly to the age of 45, Subject to the age- specific fertility rate and sex ratio at birth throughout
that period.
GRR can vary differently between countries depending on the factors such as;
 Cultural norms.
 Economic conditions.
 Government policies.

GRR= ((∑ ASFR for daughters x 5)/1000) x 1000

Example
Age groups Women Female births ASFRS daughters
15-19 4928 121 24.6/1000
20-24 3088 303 98.1/1000
25-29 2516 331 131.6/1000
30-34 1937 249 128.5/1000
35-39 1830 171 93.4/1000
40-44 1106 56 50.6/1000
45-49 798 26 32.6/1000

GRR=((24.6+98.1+131.6+128.5+93.4+50.6+32.6) x 5)/1000
=2797/1000
=2.797
GRR, like TFR, assumes that the hypothetical cohort of women pass from birth through their
reproductive life without experiencing mortality.

Example of GRR
The GRR can vary widely among different populations and overtime. There are some hypothetical
examples to illustrate how GRR can differ.
1. Replacement- level fertility
GRR = 1.02 this indicates that an average, each woman in the population is giving birth to
slightly more than one daughter during her life time, which is just enough to replace the current
population.
 2. Below replacement- level fertility
GRR = 0.85 in this case, each woman, on average is giving birth to fewer than one daughter
during her life time. This suggest that the population is experiencing declining fertility, which
could lead to a decrease in population size over time.
3. Above replacement- level fertility
GRR= 1.25 this GRR value indicates that each woman on average is giving birth to more than
one daughter during her life time. This level of fertility could lead to population growth over
time.

The GRR value above 1 indicate population growth while value below 1 suggest population decline or
stabilization.

4. Net Reproduction Rate

Is the average number of daughters a woman would have if she survived her life time subject to the
age-specific fertility rate and mortality rate throughout that period.

NRR= ∑ ASFR x S
where ASFR is the age specific fertility rate and summing from 15-49
ASFR= (female birth in the specific age group/female population in that specific age group) x 1000
S is the survival factors

NRR is always lower that GRR because it takes into account that some women die before completing
their child bearing years.
If NRR = 1, shows that no of potential mother remains same
NRR > 1 shows that population is increasing
NRR < 1 shows that population is decreasing

Example

Age groups Female Female birth ASFR Survival ASFR X S

Population
15-19 10000 200 20 0.91 18.2
20-24 9000 360 40 0.90 36
25-29 8000 480 60 0.89 53.4
30-34 7000 280 40 0.88 35.2
35-39 6000 180 30 0.87 26.1
40-44 5000 100 20 0.86 17.1
45-49 4000 40 10 0.85 8.5
Total 220 194.6

GRR=∑ASFR
=5×220
=1100 female born per 1000 women
NRR= ∑(ASFR x S)
=194.6
=5×194.6
973 female born per 1000 women

973/1000= 0.973 then this shows that the population is decreasing