FERTILITY

Dr. S. E. Moyo &

Mr. M. Khumalo
 Objectives of the lesson

• Define fertility,
• Discuss the concepts associated with
fertility,
• Compute measures associated with
fertility,
 Intro......

• Fertility
• relates to the number of live births a
woman has actually had
• Roughly means the opposite of childless.
• It means a woman is, or was , a mother.
 Intro......

•Fecundity
•The physiological ability to bear children.

•It is the opposite of being sterile (Newell, C.

Methods and Models in Demography ,1988)

•The potential reproductive capacity of a female

 Intro......

•The words ‘fertile and fecund’ are used by

demographers the other way round from the general
public.
•Therefore, every woman may be fecund and not
necessarily fertile
 Intro......

• Maximum number of children an average woman can

theoretically produce is about 15

• If she starts child-bearing as soon as possible

after the onset of menstruation, which is around
the ages of 12-14 years,
• And continues until menopause in her middle or
late forties
 Intro......

• According to the Guiness Book of Records, the greatest

officially recorded number of children born to one
mother is 69, to the wife of Feodor Vassilyev (b. 1707–
c.1782), a peasant from Shuya, Russia.

• In 27 confinements she gave birth to 16 pairs of twins,

seven(7) sets of triplets and four(4) sets of quadruplets.
 Intro......

• 16x2=32
• 7 x 3 = 21
• 4x4=16
----------
27 births 69 children
Factors Affecting Fertility Rate

Biological Social- Cultural

Determinants Determinants

Fertility

Economic
Determinants
 Biological Determinants
• Age:
• Reproductive age of women ranges from 15-44 or from 15-49.
• Health and nutrition:
• Poor health and/or nutrition can reduce fertility.
• Linked with underweight children.
• Linked with child mortality rates.

• Environment:
• Represents an undocumented impacts on fertility.
• Stressed populations tend to have less males than females.
• Possible correlation between sperm count and pollution.
 Social Determinants
• The social norms and acceptance of practices
affecting fertility.
• Differ from society to society.
• Marriage:
• Particularly the average age of marriage.
• The percentage of people never married varies
spatially and affects fertility rates.
• Late marriage age generally involves less
children.
 Social Determinants (Continued)

• Contraception:
• Used by 30-50% of all married couples.
• Availability of contraceptive devices and social
attitudes toward their use affect fertility rates.
• Sharp differences exist between MEDCs and
LEDCs.
• Some notable exceptions, such as China and
Cuba.
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 Social Determinants (Continued)
• Abortion:
• Last resort measure when contraception failed (or
was not used).
• Its legality is not universal and under challenge in
some countries where it is permitted.
• Illegal abortions are common in most societies,
even where it is prohibited.
• Culture plays an important determining role in the
impact of abortion.
 Economic Determinants
• The role of children, or their “value” affects fertility.
Inverse relationships:
• Fertility and income per capita.
• Fertility and urbanization
Traditional rural societies:
• Children still play an important economic role and
contribute to family wealth,
• Fertility is likely to remain higher.
 Economic (continued)

Industrial and post-industrial societies:

•Costs tend to increase with the development level of

the society. Deflate the fertility rate since parents must
consider the direct and opportunity costs of bearing
additional children.

15
 Factors Affecting Fertility Rate

•Status of Women
•Level of education
•Employment opportunities
•Type of residence
•Religion of parents
•Level of available health care
•Machismo/Manliness
•Perceived cost of having children
•Pressure from the government
 World Fertility Rate
Strongly correlated with level of economic development

Spatial distribution Fertility

 FERTILITY MEASURES

• Crude Birth Rate

• General Fertility Rate
• Age Specific Fertility Rate
• Total Fertility Rate
• Gross Reproduction Rate
• Net Reproduction Rate
 Tools of Measurement

•A demographer usually express the population

events as

Rate, Ratios and Proportion

 Rate
• A rate measurement of occurrence of some particular event in a
population during a given period of time
• It indicate the change in some event that take place in a population
E.g.
Births in a year
CBR = ______________ x 1000
Population at mid-year

Rate comprise of 1.Numerator, 2. Denominator, 3. Multiples

 Ratio
•Express a relation in size between two random
quantities

•X:Y or (X/Y)

•The numerator is not a component of the

denominator
 Proportion

• A proportion is a ratio which indicates the relation in magnitude

of a part of the whole
• The numerator is always included the in the denominator
• Proportion is usually expressed as percentage

Comments and Questions

 Measures of Fertility
Crude birth rate (CBR) is calculated as the number of births occurring
in a year divided by the population at midyear, times 1,000.

CBR = B / P* 1000

For example, the CBR for Country X in 2011 is

obtained as follows:

69,811 (births) , 5,613,000 (population)

Calculate CBR.
 Solution
For example, the CBR for Country X in 2011 is
obtained as follows:

69,811 / 5,613,000 x 1,000 = 12.44

(births) (population)

There were 12 births per 1,000 population in

country X in 2011.

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 Measures of Fertility

Because fertility, like mortality, varies with age, a comparison

between countries based only on the crude birth rate may be
misleading.
 Two populations may have different crude birth rates even if
fertility of women at each age is the same in each of them.
 In another case, women in one population may actually have
lower fertility at each age, and the population may still have a
higher crude birth rate if there are more women of reproductive
age in that population.
 Again, an age-standardised CBR avoids this problem.

25
 General Fertility Rate

• The annual number of live births per 1000 women of child-

bearing age

Births in a year
GFR = _______________ x 1000
Women aged 15-44 or 49 at mid-year
 Measures of Fertility

General fertility rate. The simplest measure that limits the

number of births to women of childbearing age is the
general fertility rate, or the number of births in a year per
1,000 women ages 15 to 49.
For example, the GFR for Country Z in
2011 is obtained as follows:

72,221 (births) and 1,469,300 of women

ages 15 to 49 in 2011

Calculate GFR

27
 Solution

For example, the GFR for Country Z in 2011 is obtained as

follows:

1,000 x 72,221 / 1,469,300 = 49.2

(births) (women ages 15 to 49)

There were 49 births per 1,000 women of

reproductive age in Country Zin 2011.

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 GFR- Limitation

• Although the general fertility rate represents a refinement over

the crude birth rate, it still has its limitations.

• The frequency of births varies by age of women within the span

of reproductive ages, and so populations in which women have
the same frequency of birth at each age may have different
general fertility rates due to differing age structure of women
within the reproductive ages.

29
 Age- Specific Fertility Rate
Age-specific fertility rates avoid the remaining problem of
the age distribution of women affecting the calculated
level of fertility by focusing on individual age groups of
women.

An age-specific fertility rate is calculated as the number of

births in a year to mothers of a specific age per woman
(or per 1,000 women) of the same age at midyear.

30
 Age-Specific Fertility Rates

• The annual number of live births per 1000 women in particular age
groups (e.g. 15-19,45-49)

Births to women aged x in a year

_____________________ x 1000
Women aged x at mid -year
 Age-Specific Fertility Rates

• It is necessary to have births classified by age of mother

• Births to girls under 15 are included in the age group 15-
19 years. Similarly, births to women over 49 years are
usually added to the age group 45-49
• The effect is negligible since there are very few births at
these age
 Measures of Fertility

Table IV-1. Age-Specific Fertility Rates and Total Fertility Rate for
Chile: 1983

Age of Female Number of Fertility

women population births rate

(1) (2) (3) (4) = (3)/(2) x 1,000

15-19 593,262 36,784 62.0

20-24 587,076 81,213 138.3
25-29 505,362 65,236 129.1
30-34 424,186 37,506 88.4
35-39 385,749 17,532 45.4
40-44 325,105 4,929 15.2
45-49 266,575 512 1.9

Sum = 480.4

Sum x 5 / 1,000 = 2.4

The total fertility rate in Chile in 1983 was 2.4 births per woman.

33
 ASFRs Measure

Age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) follow a fairly standard pattern

among women in all populations: rates start from zero at very young
ages, rising to a peak sometime in the twenties, then declining
gradually until again reaching zero around 50 years of age.

Slight variations to the pattern occur, depending on differences in age

at marriage, on the proportion of women sexually active (mostly within
marital unions), or on the desire and possibility of controlling
pregnancies (mostly by using contraception).

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 Measures of Fertility

Although ASFRs properly measure the fertility of women

in each age group, it is difficult to use them to make
comparisons among populations or within a certain
population over time.

In addition, they do not easily portray the overall level of

fertility. For these reasons, a summary index was
developed, known as the total fertility rate.

35
 Measures of Fertility

The total fertility rate (TFR) represents the average

number of children each woman in a group of women
would have by the end of her reproductive years if the
group had children according to a set of age‑specific
fertility rates pertaining to a particular year.

In other words, if a group of women have been exposed

to a given set of ASFR's from age 15 to age 49, the
average number of children they would have by age 50
is the total fertility rate.

36
 Total Fertility Rate

Sum of ASFRs
TFR= _____________ x5
1000
 Total Fertility Rate

• We multiply by 5 because ASFRs have intervals of 5 years

• If single years are used then there is no need to multiply
by 5
• TFR is expressed per woman whereas ASFRs are per 1000
therefore it is necessary to divide by 1000.
 Gross Reproduction Rate

The average number of daughters that a group of

women starting life together would bear if all the
initial group of females survived the childbearing
period
(The Methods and Material of Demography, pg
315).
 Gross Reproduction Rate

• The number of daughters who would be

born to a woman completing her
reproductive life at current age-specific
fertility rates.

• The GRR assumes that the women survive to

the end of the childbearing age and that
mortality is zero
 GRR: Calculation

Let
Bf= Number of female births

Bm+f= Number of male and

female births i.e. all births
 GRR

• GRR= Sum ASFR Bf____

* Bm+f

• GRR =TFR * (Proportion of female

births)
 Net Reproduction Rate

NRR is the average number of daughters that would

be born to a female (or a group of females) if she
passed through her lifetime conforming to the age-
specific fertility and mortality rates of a given year.
 Net Reproduction Rate

• It is a measure of;
• the number of daughters that a
• cohort of new born girl babies will bear during their lifetime
assuming
• fixed schedule of age-specific fertility rates and
• a fixed set of mortality rates
• (The methods and Material of Demography, pg 315).
 Net Reproduction Rate

• It is a measure of the extent to which a cohort of newly

born girls will replace themselves under given schedule
of age specific fertility and mortality rates
• Some girls will die before attaining the age of
reproduction
• Others will die during their reproduction span
• Others will complete their reproductive life
 Child/Woman Ratio

Children aged 0-4

__________________
Women aged 15-44 or 49

• If fertility is high, c/w ratio will be high and if the

fertility is low, the ratio will be low.
 Fertility Analysis: Summary

Period analysis
• Looks at fertility cross- sectionally, that is, births
occurring at a specified period of time, normally one year
(CBR, ASFR)
Cohort analysis
• Looks at fertility longitudinally, that is, births occurring to
a specific group of women, normally those born or
married in a particular year
 Fertility Analysis: Summary

• High fertility
When Total fertility levels are above 5 children per woman.
• Replacement-level fertility
Total fertility levels of about 2.1 children per woman. This
value represents the average number of children a woman
would need to have to reproduce herself by bearing a
daughter who survives to childbearing age.
 Fertility Analysis: Summary

If replacement level fertility is sustained over

a sufficiently long period, each generation
will exactly replace itself in the absence of migration.
• Below-replacement fertility
Total fertility levels below 2.1 children per woman.
• Very low fertility
Total fertility levels below 1.3 children per woman.