CHAPTER 4

POPULATION AND
DEMOGRAPHY
- Population; Biotic Potential; Demography; Common Rates
and Ratios
Objectives:

1 2 3 4 5 6

Discuss Describe Differentiat Define what Explain the List and

several the basic e fecundity is Biotic different describe
factors that components from potential. methods of common rate
determines of fertility. data and ratios
collection used in
size of population used in demography
human change. demography
population.
What is POPULATION?
◦ Population, in human biology, the whole number
of inhabitants occupying an area (such as a
country or the world) and continually being
modified by increases (births and immigrations)
and losses (deaths and emigrations). As with any
biological population, the size of a human
population is limited by the supply of food, the
effect of diseases, and other environmental factors.
Human populations are further affected by social
customs governing reproduction and by the
technological developments, especially in
medicine and public health, that have reduced 
mortality and extended the life span.
FERTILITY vs. FECUNDITY
◦ Demographers distinguish between fecundity, the
underlying biological potential for reproduction, and
fertility, the actual level of achieved reproduction
INTERVENING FACTORS OF FERTILITY AND
FECUNDITY:
1. most women do not begin reproducing immediately upon
the onset of puberty, which itself does not occur at a fixed
age
2. some women with the potential to reproduce never do so
3. some women become widowed and do not remarry
4. various elements of social behaviour restrain fertility
5. many human couples choose consciously to restrict their
fertility by means of sexual abstinence, contraception,
abortion, or sterilization
POPULATION
GROWTH
⮚ Increase in the
number of
individuals in a
population
⮚ Thomas McKeown:
“Modern Rise of
Population”
THEORIES

1. McKeown stated that the growth in population, particularly surging in the

19th century, was not so much caused by an increase in fertility, but largely
by a decline of mortality particularly of childhood mortality followed by
infant mortality,
2. The decline of mortality could largely be attributed to rising standards of
living, whereby he put most emphasis on improved nutritional status,
>continuation..
3. His most controversial idea, at least his
most disputed idea, was that he questioned
the effectiveness of public health
measures, including sanitary reforms,
vaccination and quarantine,
4. The sometimes very fierce disputes that
his publication provoked around the
"McKeown thesis", have overshadowed his
more important and largely unchallenged
argument that curative medical measures
played little role in mortality decline, not
only prior to the mid-20th century but also
until well into the 20th century.
BIOTIC
POTENTIAL
⮚ Unrestricted growth of
populations resulting
in the maximum
growth of that
population
⮚ highest possible vital
index of a species;
therefore, when the
species has its highest
birthrate and lowest
mortality rate.
FACTORS THAT AFFECT BIOTIC
POTENTIAL
QUANTITATIVE EXPRESSION
◦ The biotic potential is the quantitative expression of the ability of a species to face selection in
any environment. The main equilibrium of a particular population is described by the
equation:

◦ Number of Individuals = Biotic Potential/Resistance of the Environment (Biotic and Abiotic)

◦ Chapman also relates to a "vital index", regarding a ratio to find the rate of surviving members
of a species, whereas;

◦ Vital Index = (number of births/number of deaths)*100

COMPONENTS OF BIOTIC POTENTIAL
(R.N Chapman)
◦ REPRODUCTIVE POTENTIAL
⮚ potential natality
⮚ upper limit to biotic potential in the
absence of mortality
❖ In the absence of mortality, biotic
potential = reproductive potential
◦ SURVIVAL POTENTIAL
⮚  reciprocal of mortality
⮚ necessary component of biotic potential
2 Subdivisions:
A) Nutritive potential - ability to acquire
and use food for growth and energy
B) Protective potential - ability of the
organism to protect itself against the
dynamic forces of environment in order
to insure successful reproduction and
offspring.
DEMOGRAPHY
METHODS
CENSUS
⮚ common direct method of collecting demographic data
⮚ usually conducted by a national government and attempts to enumerate every person in a country
⮚ In contrast to vital statistics data, which are typically collected continuously and summarized on an
annual basis, censuses typically occur only every 10 years or so, and thus are not usually the best source
of data on births and deaths
⮚ Analyses are conducted after a census to estimate how much over or undercounting took place. These
compare the sex ratios from the census data to those estimated from natural values and mortality data
⮚ collect information about families or households in addition to individual characteristics such as age,
sex, marital status, literacy/education, employment status, and occupation, and geographical location.
They may also collect data on migration (or place of birth or of previous residence), language, religion,
nationality (or ethnicity or race), and citizenship.
⮚ In countries in which the vital registration system may be incomplete, the censuses are also used as a
direct source of information about fertility and mortality
INDIRECT METHOD
>continuation..
◦ There are a variety of demographic methods for modelling population
processes. They include models of mortality (including the life table, 
Gompertz models, hazards models, Cox proportional hazards models, 
multiple decrement life tables, Brass relational logits), fertility (Hernes model, 
Coale-Trussell models, parity progression ratios), marriage (Singulate Mean at
Marriage, Page model), disability (Sullivan's method, multistate life tables), 
population projections (Lee-Carter model, the Leslie Matrix), and 
population momentum (Keyfitz).
TERMINOLOGIES
COMMON RATES & RATIOS USED IN
DEMOGRAPHY
◦ The crude birth rate, the annual number of live births per 1,000 people.
◦ The general fertility rate, the annual number of live births per 1,000 women of childbearing
age (often taken to be from 15 to 49 years old, but sometimes from 15 to 44).
◦ The age-specific fertility rates, the annual number of live births per 1,000 women in particular
age groups (usually age 15–19, 20-24 etc.)
◦ The crude death rate, the annual number of deaths per 1,000 people.
◦ The infant mortality rate, the annual number of deaths of children less than 1 year old per
1,000 live births.
◦ The expectation of life (or life expectancy), the number of years that an individual at a given
age could expect to live at present mortality levels.
>continuation..
◦ The total fertility rate, the number of live births per woman completing her reproductive
life, if her childbearing at each age reflected current age-specific fertility rates.
◦ The replacement level fertility, the average number of children women must have in order
to replace the population for the next generation. For example, the replacement level fertility
in the US is 2.11.
◦ The gross reproduction rate, the number of daughters who would be born to a woman
completing her reproductive life at current age-specific fertility rates.
◦ The net reproduction ratio is the expected number of daughters, per newborn prospective
mother, who may or may not survive to and through the ages of childbearing.
◦ A stable population, one that has had constant crude birth and death rates for such a long
period of time that the percentage of people in every age class remains constant, or
equivalently, the population pyramid has an unchanging structure.
◦ A stationary population, one that is both stable and unchanging in size (the difference
between crude birth rate and crude death rate is zero)
Think about this..