Locking down countries: Is it the only way to survive this

Pandemic?

Europe

 France - Authorities in France are grappling with a sharp increase in fresh cases
which has seen more than 7,000 new infections within the last week, as well as a
rise in the number of people being treated for the disease in intensive care. 

Around 1,219 new cases are being reported per day. But two weeks ago, the
seven-day rolling average was 719. 

At its lowest point at the end of May, the country was recording around 272 new
cases per day.

 Germany - Some 730 cases have been reported each day on average this week,
against the 460 being recorded per day two weeks ago. The number of confirmed
coronavirus cases in Germany increased by 879 to 211,281, data from the Robert
Koch Institute (RKI) for infectious diseases showed on August 4, 2020. The
reported death toll rose by eight to 9,156, the tally showed. 
 Spain - Spain announced 8,500 new coronavirus cases across the country at the
weekend - its largest jump in three months - bringing its total to 297,054. 

On August 4, 2020, 5,760 cases were recorded in 24 hours, the highest since the
height of Europe's pandemic, on April 23, when 6,740 cases were diagnosed.

It means Spain's seven-day rolling average is hovering around 3,200 — ten times
the figure one month ago.

Spain is the worst-hit nation in Europe at the moment, with many of its neighbors
including Italy, Germany and the UK, recommending against travelling there.

 Greece - Greece reported 121 new cases on August 4, 2020 the highest tally
since April 22 and part of a surge of what appears to be mainly domestic
infections.

The seven-day rolling average is now at 82, which is almost as high as its peak in
the first week of April - when 93 cases were being reported per day.

Total cases have reached 4,855, with data showing the virus affecting more
younger people than before. Experts say that could be due either to an increase in
tests or because more visitors have been tested during Greece's peak tourism
season. 
  United Kingdom - Britain's coronavirus outbreak is still growing as officials
recorded another 892 cases on August 5, 2020 — causing the average daily
number of infections to shoot up again. But the number of patients being admitted
to hospital has yet to spike, bolstering claims from top scientists that the outbreak
is not getting worse and cases are only rising because more patients are being
tested.

As coronavirus cases rise in several European countries, governments are

scrambling to contain new emerging clusters of the virus, and some citizens are
wondering if countries are prepared to prevent a potential "second wave". Many experts
agree that Europe is experiencing a resurgence in cases, as people are more relaxed
about social distancing during the summer months.
France has seen a 78 per cent increase in its weekly COVID-19 incidence rate per
100,000 people. New cases have increased from a couple of hundred per day to more
than 1,000. Some of this is due to expanded testing and locating of asymptomatic
cases, particularly in young adults. Health officials have warned that more young people
are testing positive for the virus as they ignore social distancing.
Spain is once again a European hotspot with higher infection rates in its
northeastern regions near Barcelona, which prompted officials to issue more
restrictions. Lifting restrictions on the virus inevitably causes the virus to come back but
social distancing measures and testing and tracing methods can help contain a large
resurgence of the virus that would resemble Europe's first waves in March and April.

Some experts have said that the definition of a second wave is related to the way in
which daily coronavirus cases and deaths are displayed and will be determined by
whether or not the resurgence can be brought under control. Italy, for instance, was an
early European hotspot and had a large curve of new daily cases in March but has
since been able to keep transmission to a few hundred cases a day. That is shown as a
first wave in the graph below.

The United Kingdom, meanwhile, having issued movement restrictions later, had
thousands of new cases for a longer period of time, with the daily case numbers coming
down much later. These curves are also represented by the daily number of deaths due
to the virus, which have stayed low in countries that issued lockdowns.
 Australia

 Victoria – The premier of Victoria plunged the region into a "state of disaster" on
Sunday (August 2, 2020), announcing even stricter lockdown measures,
introducing a nightly curfew and banning virtually all trips outdoors after
Australia's second largest state recorded 671 new infections in a single day.

 Melbourne – The second-most populous state in Australia reported a record rise

of 725 new COVID-19 cases despite having reimposed a lockdown on
Melbourne, the state capital with a population of 5 million people, four weeks
ago.

So how long should Melbourne’s lockdown last? The Grattan Institute has argued
it should continue until there are no more active COVID-19 cases in the community to
eliminate the virus – and after that, should remain in place for another two weeks.
Australia’s second-largest city, Melbourne, is grappling with a spiraling
coronavirus outbreak that has led to a lockdown with some of the toughest restrictions
in the world — offering a preview of what many urban dwellers elsewhere could confront
in coming weeks and months. The new lockdown is the product of early success; the
country thought it had the virus beat in June. But there was a breakdown in the
quarantine program for hotels. Returning travelers passed the virus to hotel security
guards in Melbourne, who carried the contagion home.
 Pandemic lockdowns are getting ever more confusing and contentious as they
evolve in the face of second and third rounds of outbreaks that have exhausted both
officials and residents. With success against the virus as fleeting as the breeze, the new
waves of restrictions feel to many like a bombing raid that just will not end. For some
places, risk calculations can change overnight. In Hong Kong, officials banned daytime
dining in restaurants last month, only to reverse themselves a day later after an outcry.
Schools in some cities are opening and closing like screen doors in summer.
Though there is no strict definition of a lockdown, it describes the controls
imposed by governments to restrict the movement of people in their communities. It is
often achieved through a combination of police presence and applying public health
regulations. It can be implemented partially, progressively, or fully. The latter is called
“hard lockdown” when the freedom of entry to, and exit from, either an entire building or
geographic area is prohibited or limited.
When entering a second lockdown, it is useful to consider the lessons learnt from
the first. Initial lockdowns in both Italy and India provide cautionary tales on what
happens when public messaging and enforcement is flawed. After a lockdown, the
majority of the population remains at risk of infection without a vaccine. So as
restrictions ease, cases are likely to increase again, leading to a pattern of lockdowns,
relaxation and renewed lockdowns
So why can’t governments just aim to eliminate the virus? An elimination strategy
requires strict, intensive lockdowns and closing external and internal borders to
eradicate local transmission and prevent the virus being imported. Elimination strategies
have worked in only a few countries and regions, such as New Zealand which imposed
an early and strict lockdown.
The effectiveness of lockdowns can be diminished by increasing population
fatigue in response to reimposed restrictions. Lockdowns also have many serious
repercussions, including a severe impact on mental health and the economy. French
Prime Minister Jean Castex has ruled out another total lockdown arguing that its
economic and human consequences are disastrous. Locking down a given country can
cost up to 3% of GDP per month, according to UBS Global Wealth Management.
 Lockdowns cannot be maintained indefinitely. That is why the rapid development
of a vaccine to achieve herd immunity, without extensive infection, is critical – along with
the development of drugs to relieve the symptoms of COVID-19.
As of now, our lives are full of uncertainties as to where this pandemic would lead
us. We are all fighting a blind battle. A battle where we could hardly see our opponent.
Some countries were able to contain the virus for a while making them feel at ease in a
short while. However, some were not able to contain it even for just a second leading to
more cases and a higher mortality rate. Regardless, we can never have a peaceful
sleep at night until this virus had a vaccine that will put our minds and hearts at ease. It
is difficult to adapt in this kind of situation where we are all strictly advised to stay at
home and as much as possible do all the transactions online in order to move forward
despite the situation.
Until the vaccine gets discovered, it is best to follow the guidelines implemented
by the government and health authorities. As of now they are the only people we can
trust to survive this pandemic.
References:

 Second wave strikes Europe? Spain reintroduces lockdown, Greece sees a worrying rise in cases
and virus is 'more active' in Germany amid warnings France 'could lose control at any moment’.

Retrieved from: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8595293/France-lose-control-

coronavirus-moment-fears-second-wave-spread.html

 What Lockdown 2.0 Looks Like: Harsher Rules, Deeper Confusion. Retrieved from
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/04/world/australia/coronavirus-melbourne-lockdown.html
 Australia suffers record coronavirus deaths, triggering tighter curbs. Retrieved from
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-australia/australia-suffers-record-
coronavirus-deaths-triggering-tighter-curbs-idUSKCN251053
 Lockdown, relax, repeat: how cities across the globe are going back to coronavirus restrictions.
Retrieved from https://theconversation.com/lockdown-relax-repeat-how-cities-across-the-
globe-are-going-back-to-coronavirus-restrictions-142425
 Is Europe having a coronavirus second wave? Country-by-country breakdown. Retrieved from
https://www.euronews.com/2020/08/06/is-europe-having-a-covid-19-second-wave-country-by-
country-breakdown