HCI 2008 Prelim Paper 2 Solution

Qn Solution
1 x 2 When x  0,
y  2 tan 1   dy 2 d 2 y 4 d3y 4
 x3 y  0,  ,   , 
dx 3 dx 2 9 dx3 27
dy   2 x 2    2( x  3)  x 2 
 2 1/ 1  2 2 2
   
2 
( x  3) 2
 y  x  x 2  x3 (up term in x 3 )
dx   ( x  3)     3 9 81
dy 2 1 1 dy 1  2 4 2 2
      x x
dx x 2  2 x  3 x 2  2 x  3 2 dx 2  3 9 27 


 x2  2x  3 
dy
dx
2
1 2
=  x  x2
3 9
1
27
d2y

 x2  2x  3 
dx 2
 2( x  1)
dy
dx
0
3 2

 x2  2x  3  ddxy  4( x  1) ddx y  2 dy
3 2
dx
0

2i

 1 
  a , 
 4a 
1 a
2ii
1

a 1 a
 2
iii

(1 − a, 0)

(a 1,  4a)

3i Amount owed before interest is added at end of nth year  un 1  12(1000) (as $12000 is paid for 1 yr)
Thus amt owed with interested added
un  1.03(un 1  12000)
3ii u1  (200000  12000)1.03
u2  ((200000  12000)1.03  12000)1.03
 200000(1.032 )  12000(1.03)  12000(1.032 )

un  200000(1.03n )  12000(1.03  1.032  ...  1.03n1 )
1.03(1.03n  1) 
 1.03n (200000)  12000  
 0.03 
 1.03n (200000)  412000(1.03n )  412000
 412000  212000(1.03n )
3 un  0 when n  23 3iv
iii (Use GC, Sequence mode) or Total interest paid
22
412000  212000(1.03n )  0   0.03ur
r 16
212000(1.03n )  412000
 0.03(277247.491)
412
1.03n   8317.42
212
412 u15  412000  212000(1.0315 )  81710.90768
lg Penalty = 0.05u15  4085.55
n  212  22.48
lg1.03 As total interest paid is greater than penalty,
least n  23 it’s to John’s benefit to terminate his loan early.
Needs 23 years
4i z 1 4ii
      
arg  z   2     3   z  cos  isin
2 2
 4 3
n n
3 z  cos
n
 isin
  2 2 2
2
n
 cos  0   n  2m  1, m  
 2
2
or  n  2m  1, m  
4  3 i
iii arg  w  
   arg 3  i
2 2 


  3 i  
arg  w        
 
  2 2  6
4 u 3i  2 u  
3 i  2
iv
3 i
  1
2 2
3 i
 Greatest u    1 4  5
2 2
5i Quota Sampling
5ii A list, in alphabetical order of the male and female employees can be generated separately. The list of
male employees will be numbered from 1 to 580 in that order while the list of female employees will be
numbered from 1 to 420 in that order. A number between 1 to 20, inclusive is then selected at random. The
corresponding employee and every 20th employee thereafter will be included in the sample for interview.
This method of selection is done for both the list of male and female employees.
5iii In (ii), the sample selected would be random whereas in (i), the sample is non-random as the interviewers
were free to choose who they wanted to interview thus creating biasness.
6 H0 :   55 vs H1 :   55

x  
x 1014
 67.6
n 15
1   x 
2
  2 
  1  83568  (1014)   1072.9714 Using GC, select t- test, p - value =
2
sx  x 2
n 1 n  15  1  15 
 
0.0792
Since p - value = 0.0792 < 0.10, we reject H0 and
conclude that there is sufficient evidence at the 10% level of significance that the promotional campaign
was successful in encouraging customers to spend more money at the store.
7 General comments for Q7
 There is a general lack of explanation on the approach to the qn. When solving a qn by considering
cases, candidates should state the cases clearly.
 Many students just wrote a 'string of numbers' without explanation.
 Solution only has all numerical computations without any words; not even the phrase 'number of ways".
 Use of diagrams is lacking. Diagrams are helpful for marker's understanding (if you are not good in
words)
7 No. of ways the committee can be formed
= 4C3 10C5  4C4 10C4 = 1218
7i No. of ways the committee can be seated without restriction = (8  1)! = 5040
7ii No. of ways the committee can be seated such that no two girls are seated next to each other = 4! (5)(4)(3)
= 1440
(8  1)!
No. of ways the committee can be seated when there are two absentees = = 2520
2!
or  6  1 ! C2   7  1 ! = 2520
6

8i Solving both equations: y  18.5  0.1x and x  16.6  0.4 y

x  25, y  21

 x  5  25  125,  y  5  21  105
8ii 125 105
2634 
r 5 or 0.4  0.1  0.2
 125 2 
1052 
 3215   2227.5  
 5  5 
8iii Let x = 26.
y =18.5+0.1 (26) = 21.1  21
The above equation is used because x is given and y has to be found.
The estimate is not reliable because r is small, i.e. it is close to 0, hence the linear correlation between x
and y is very weak.
9i P (player wins the grand prize) = P (WWW)
 2  4  6  1
=     =
 8  10  12  20
9ii P (player wins a consolation prize)
= P (BWW or WBW or WWB)
 6  2  4   2  6  4   2  4  6 
=              
 8  10  12   8  10  12   8  10  12 
3
=
20
9iii P (player wins a consolation prize/first draw was white) =
P (player wins a consolation prize and 1st draw was white)
P (1st draw was white)
P (WWB or WBW) 1
2
= = 10 =
P (W) 1 5
4
P (player wins at least 2 grand prizes in his 4 attempts)
= 1  P (player did not win any grand prize) – P (player wins only 1 grand prize)
4 3
 19   1  19 
= 1     4    = 0.0140
 20   20  20 

Alternative:
Let random variable X be the number of grand prizes a player wins in his 4 attempts at the game. Then
 1 
X ~ B  4, .
 20 
P (player wins at least 2 grand prizes in his 4 attempts)
= P ( X  2)
= 1  P ( X  1)
= 1  0.98598 = 0.0140
10i X  B(108,0.04)
Assume independence of customers not turning up.
P(X = 0) = 0.96108 = 0.0122
10 Since n > 50, by CLT, the sample mean X  N (4.32,
4.1472
).
ii 60
 
P X  4  0.112
10 Since n is large, np = 4.32 <5, X  Po(4.32)
iii X1+X2+X3+…+Xm = the number of customers that do not turn up for m consecutive days
Y = X1+X2+X3+…+XmPo(4.32m)
P(Y ≥ 6) > 0.999
P(Y ≤ 5) < 0.001
Using G.C, m > 3.8
Or when m = 3, P = 0.011 > 0.001
when m = 4, P = 0.00055 < 0.001
Least number of days = 4
11 P(X >500) 0.01
a Using GC, graphically   453 (3 s.f.)
Alternatively,
 500   
P(X >500) 0.01 P  Z   0.01
 20 
500  
 2.326    453 (3 s.f.)
20
11 Let X denote the amount of soft drink that is dispensed into a cup of 500 ml. XN(470,202)
bi P(X >500) = 0.0668 (3s.f.)
bii Required Probability = (10.066807)2 = 0.871
b X1+X2 N(940,800)
iii P  X1  X 2  1000   0.983 (3 s.f.)
biv Let Y denote the number of cups that overflowed out of 300 cups.
Y  B(300,0.066807), np = 20.04217 > 5, nq = 279.95783 > 5,
Y  N(20.04217, 18.70321) (approximately)
c .c
P(Y > 20)  P(Y > 20.5) = 0.458 (3 s.f.)