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Bo Sanchez
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In the recent weeks, the market has weakened as investors remain concerned about rising inflation, higher
interest rates, and the possibility of the peso further depreciating.
Last February 15, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) cut the reserve requirements for banks by one percent,
from twenty to nineteen percent. This was put into effect last March 2. The BSP said that this move will have a neutral
impact in terms of liquidity and inflation, with its plans of mopping up the P90 billion in additional funds that will
be released into the system by increasing the volume of its term deposit facility. However, the market responded
negatively as seen in the rising bond rates.
Back in early March, the government also disclosed that inflation for the month of February rose to 4.5 percent.
This is the highest level in over three years and it was above consensus projection of 4.2 percent. Despite this, it
seems BSP has no plans of taking any action to manage inflation in the short term. BSP Governor Nestor Espenilla
Jr. said, “The elevated February inflation is in line with our updated forecast for a temporarily higher inflation (of 4.8
percent) than (the 2.0 to 4.0 percent) target range in 2018 due to transitory factors.” He added that according to their
forecast, inflation will decelerate back within target in 2019.
Thus, in such a volatile market, what should we do?
For long-term investors like us, we need to stick to our investment plan (SAM). We need to stay disciplined in
following our set plan when markets are volatile as wrong calls can result to significant losses. Also, we need to resist
the temptation to sell purely based on emotions (i.e., fear). Even with the short-term challenges that the country
is facing, COL Research and TrulyRichClub continue to assure us of the positive long-term outlook of the Philippine
economy and that the stock market remains intact for the following reasons:
First, the country continues to enjoy favorable demographics, resilient Overseas Filipino Workers’ remittances,
and a growing Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) sector. In fact, last January, OFW remittances increased by 9.7
percent to US$2.4 billion. This was much higher than the five percent forecast of analysts. The recent passage of the
tax reform law will allow the government to increase spending on infrastructure and social services, helping boost
further productivity and economic growth.
Second, the execution of the tax reform has been very good so far, with the Department of Finance (DOF)
saying that excise tax collection in January reached P22.1 billion. This is up by 81.7 percent compared to January of
2017, and higher than the P20.5-billion target. The DOF also mentioned that the total tax collection of the BIR for
the first two months of 2018 grew by 10.8 percent to P280.6 billion. Such higher revenues reduce the risk that the
government will not be able to execute on its plan of spending more on infrastructure projects and social services.
Third, despite rising inflation, most consumer companies in recent communication with COL Research said
that sales during the first few months of the year have been very positive. This can be possibly boosted by higher
disposable income due to personal income tax cuts—resulting from the passage of the tax reform program—and the
favorable impact of the weaker peso on families dependent on OFW remittances.
I hope this gives you good guidance on how to deal with this market correction and volatility. We will continue
with our company updates in the succeeding issues of Stocks Update Report.
Stay happy and disciplined investing in this correction.
Here are our SAM and Mutual Fund Tables as of April 6, 2018 closing:
Stock Current Price Buy Below Price Target Price Recommendation
AP 38.50 39.92 49.90 Continue buying
CEB 92.90 100.24 125.30 Continue Buying
CHIB 35.30 36.52 42.00 Continue Buying
GTCAP 1140.00 1188.00 1485.00 Continue buying
MBT 83.90 89.60 112.00 Continue Buying
MEG 4.52 4.92 6.15 Continue Buying
RLC 19.32 19.88 26.85 Continue buying
AC 919.00 872.00 1090.00 Stop Buying
ALI 41.00 38.60 52.12 Stop Buying
BDO 134.60 119.13 137.00 Stop Buying
MER 322.60 302.60 348.00 Stop Buying
SM 976.00 774.78 891.00 Stop Buying
SMPH 33.90 30.32 37.90 Stop Buying
UBP 90.50 87.82 101.00 Stop buying
CHP 3.62 7.44 9.30 Hold
NAVPS WHEN
CURRENT NAVPS
FUND CODE FUND BOUGHT ESTIMATED RETURN
(as of 2018-04-06)
(2016-01-12 )
Note: The percentage returns cannot be compared between the two tables below. The All-Time Winners table does
not take into consideration a cost-averaging method. The percentage return is only from a buy-and-hold strategy. The
2017 table, however, integrates a cost-averaging method throughout the months it was under the Buy-Below.
ESTIMATED
STOCK TIME PRICE ESTIMATED
STOCKS TIME
SYMBOL RECOMMENDED RANGE RETURN
HELD
October 2013 to March
SM Prime Holdings SMPH 29 Months P16.90 to P21.70 27.95%
2016
September 2015 to June P1,270.00 to
GT Capital Holdings GTCAP 2016 9 Months 22.79%
P1,530.00
ESTIMATED
STOCK TIME PRICE ESTIMATED
STOCKS TIME
SYMBOL RECOMMENDED RANGE RETURN
HELD
June 2011 to February 2012
Ayala Land ALI 9 Months P15.09 to P21.65 35%
(3rd week)
Bank of The February 2012 to November
BPI 10 Months P68.45 to P91.00 34.29%
Philippine Islands 2012 (4th week)
February 2012 to December
SM Prime Holdings SMPH 10 Months P12.48 to P17.00 27.75%
2012 (1st week)
January 2013 to April 2013
Meralco MER 3 Months P268.00 to P377.00 28.05%
First Phlippine
FPH June 2011 to June 2013 25 Months P63.18 to P95.20 32.92%%
Holdings
JG Summit
JGS February 12 to October 2013 18 Months P25.75 to P43.50 39.96%
Holdings
D&L Industries DNL February 2013 to April 2014 14 Months P6.45 to P10.00 44%
Banco De Oro BDO April 2013 to August 2014 16 Months P89.60 to P93.00 24%%
SM Prime Holdings SMPH October 2013 to March 2016 29 Months P16.90 to P21.70 27.95%
P1,270.00 to
GT Capital Holdings GTCAP September 2015 to June 2016 9 Months 22.79%
P1,530.00
(Disclaimer: Past performance doesn’t guarantee that you’ll have the exact same results in the future. After all, your
earnings depend on the market’s performance.)
Mike Viñas is an investment trainer of COL Financial Group, Inc. He is a Certified Securities Representative.