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Zee Entertainment
Zee5 revenue remains the silver lining Rating: Buy
Ad in traditional & Zee5 subscriber revenue to drive growth Target Price: INR 250
Upside: 44%
We expect Zee Entertainment (Z IN) to outperform on the ad revenue
CMP: INR 174 (as on 18 August 2020)
front vs the industry in FY21, led by 1) the shift of Zee Anmol from pay
Global Markets Research
to FTA last month, which is likely to drive ad spend back in favor, 2) Key data
strong come-back for ad revenue from H2FY21, given the festival Bloomberg /Reuters Code Z IN /ZEE.BO
season and gradual economic recovery. This has been reiterated by Current /Dil. Shares O/S (mn) 960/960
the June 2020 Pitch Madison Report that states TV and digital will Mkt Cap (INR bn/USD mn) 167/2,238
continue to contribute at least 65% of ad spend in India, with TV Daily Vol (3M NSE Avg) 1,257,992
retaining share at 37%; on the digital advertising front, however, Z Face Value (INR) 1
may underperform vs industry average, as YouTube and Hotstar take 1 USD = INR 74.8
Note: *as on 18 August 2020; Source: Bloomberg
away the lion’s share of incremental spend. We estimate 20% YoY
growth in Zee5 ad revenue in FY21E. On subscription revenue front, Price & Volume
Zee5 remains one of the key drivers, and we believe international
400 125
broadcast subscriptions too (which have declined 17% over the past
300 100
two years) will move in favor of Zee5 subscriptions, given access to TV
75
live content, movie & originals; this shift is also favorable for Z as 200
50
scalability in the digital business would attract better valuation.
100 25
Valuation: upgrade to Buy with a higher TP of INR 250 0 0
Aug-19 Dec-19 Apr-20 Aug-20
We upgrade our rating for Z to Buy from Reduce, and raise our TP to Vol. in mn (RHS)
INR 250 from INR 158 based on a SOTP valuation after factoring in Zee Entertainment Enterprises (LHS)
Source: Bloomberg
numbers of Zee5 (digital business) & strong outlook for the OTT
platform. We have moved to a SOTP-based valuation by valuing the Shareholding (%) Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21
Zee5 business separately based on EV/sales and the broadcasting Promoter 22.4 4.9 4.9 4.8
Institutional Investors 61.8 79.2 79.2 77.0
business on P/E basis. Zee5 reported revenue of INR 949mn in
Other Investors 12.4 12.6 13.0 13.6
Q1FY21; based on this, we assume full-year revenue for the OTT
General Public 3.4 3.3 3.0 4.7
platform at INR 3,400mn (assuming a higher share for subscription
Source: BSE
revenue) for FY21E. Hence, after factoring in ad revenue growth of
Price performance (%) 3M 6M 12M
20% YoY and subscription revenue growth of 10% YoY for the platform
Sensex 28.3 (5.8) 3.2
in FY22E, and EV/sales of 4x, which is almost 30% below Netflix’s and
Zee Entertainment 16.4 (29.2) (49.8)
largely in line with other global media companies that have a sizeable Sun TV Network 21.3 (7.9) (2.3)
presence on digital, we arrive at a valuation of INR 16 for the Zee5 Source: Bloomberg
business. Z’s broadcasting business, excluding revenue and losses for
Zee5 platform, will be valued at 15x one-year forward earnings, which
translates into a fair value of INR 280; however, if we were to exclude
write-offs (inventory, receivables & corporate guarantees), taken at a
future date in a worst case scenario, the fair value for the broadcasting
business will be INR 235. Hence, our TP for consolidated Z, including
the digital business, would be INR 250.
Key Financials
YE Revenue YoY EBITDA EBITDA PAT YoY Fully DEPS RoE RoCE P/E EV/EBITDA
March (INR mn) (%) (INR mn) margin (%) (INR mn) (%) (INR) (%) (%) (x) (x)
FY19 79,339 18.7 25,640 32.3 15,892 7.5 16.5 19.3 26.8 10.5 6.3
FY20 81,299 2.5 16,346 20.1 8,089 (49.1) 8.4 8.8 15.5 20.7 10.0
FY21E 72,361 (11.0) 13,881 19.2 8,325 2.9 8.7 8.5 11.6 20.1 11.0
FY22E 77,552 7.2 18,998 24.5 13,011 56.3 13.5 12.2 14.6 12.8 7.4
Note: pricing as on 18 August 2020; Source: Company, Elara Securities Estimate
(INR mn)
OPBIDTA 28,155 19,182 16,775 22,100 70,000 20
(%)
Less :- Depreciation & Amortization 2,347 2,706 2,732 2,997 60,000 15
EBIT 25,807 16,476 14,044 19,103 10
50,000
Less:- Interest Expenses 1,304 1,449 934 939 5
PBT 24,503 15,027 13,110 18,164 40,000 0
FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Less :- Taxes 8,672 4,317 2,796 4,370
Net Revenues EBITDA Margin
Adjusted PAT 15,831 10,710 10,314 13,793
Add/Less: - Extra-ordinaries (61) 2,621 1,989 783 Source: Company, Elara Securities Estimate
Reported PAT 15,892 8,089 8,325 13,011
Balance Sheet (INR mn) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Share Capital 961 961 961 961 Adjusted profit growth trend
Reserves 88,279 92,479 1,00,503 1,11,522
20,000 100
Minority Interest 143 110 99 82
15,000 56 75
Borrowings 7,429 3,501 3,542 3,542
10,000 50
Deferred Tax (Net) (8,573) (7,879) (192) (192)
(INR mn)
(%)
5,000 3 25
Total Liabilities 88,239 89,172 1,04,913 1,15,914
0 0
Gross Block 17,951 19,993 22,035 24,077 8
Less:- Accumulated Depreciation 9,359 12,065 14,797 17,794 (5,000) (49) (25)
Zee5: largest non-sports OTT offering in India The company reported an EBITDA of INR 2,199mn,
Zee5, which reported its quarterly revenue numbers for down 67% YoY and an EBITDA margin of 16.8% (ex-
the first time, translates into annual revenue in the range Zee5 margin stood at 30%), down 1610bp YoY, largely
of INR 3.4-3.6bn. Management clarified this includes only since the fall in revenue was higher than cost savings
the Advertising video on Demand (AVOD) & (marketing investments in the digital business continue,
Subscription video on Demand (SVOD) revenue and has leading to a 36% YoY decline in A&P and other expenses,
no syndication revenue. programming cost down 16%, given no fresh episodes
of existing shows were produced in the first two
Exhibit 2: Ad spend on video witnesses fastest growth among the digital ad pie
50 46.4
22.4
20 16.4
12.5
8.4
10
2.2 3.0 3.4 3.8
0
Search spends Social Video spends Display spends Affiliates + Content +
Influencers Tech +
SMS/OBD
CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19
Exhibit 3: Digital share within the ad pie rising rapidly Exhibit 4: Digital to grow multifold in next 5 years
250 50 700
585.5
200 40 600
500
(INR bn)
150 30
(INR bn) 400
(%)
100 20 300
50 10 200 154.67
100
0 0
CY20P
CY15
CY16
CY17
CY18
CY19
0
CY19 CY25E
Digital Adex size Growth YoY Share of Ad pie Digital Adex size
Source: Dentsu Aegis,2020, Elara Securities Research Source: Dentsu Aegis,2020, Elara Securities Research
Exhibit 5: Display ads comprise an average 21% of ads while online video constitutes 20% for key verticals
100
32 20 24 27 25 27
80 35 38 34
11 0 4
0 12 4
1 10 3
(%)
60 17 39 4
27 17
44 23
30 26
40 28 36
26 11 15
21 13
20 13
14
23 19 21 26 18 23 19 24
13
0
Media & Auto Telecom BFSI Consumer E-commerce FMCG Retail Others
Entertainment Durables
Display Online video Paid search Others incl. classifieds Social media
Online Others
Others incl.
incl. video, 22%
classifieds, Online
classifieds, 4%
4% Paid Paid video, 24%
search, search,
27% 23%
Source: Dentsu Aegis 2020, Elara Securities Research Source: Dentsu Aegis2020, Elara Securities Research
Exhibit 7: Zee5 gains traction with rising MAU YoY Exhibit 10: Z continues to invest in original content
100 for Zee5 OTT at average 18-20 shows per quarter
76.4 50
80 39
61.5 63.1 40
(mn)
56.3
60
26
(No.s)
41.3 39.7 30 23
40 16 18 18
20 14 15 15
20 14.2
10
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q3FY19
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Monthly Active Users (MAU) New original shows/Content launched
Note : Company has not published data for Q2 & Q3FY20 Source: Company,
Elara Securities Research Source: Company, Elara Securities Research
Exhibit 8: Zee5 DAU temporarily hit with lack of live Exhibit 11: Zee Music YouTube channel views CAGR
TV content on platform amid COVID-19 lockdown of 40% over the past two years
12 11.4 10
7.8 8
8 7.1 7.1 7.3
10 8.9 5.9
6 4.9 5.3
(bn)
(mn)
8 6.6 4.1
6 4
6
4 2
4
0
2
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
0
Q1FY21
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
15
(No.s)
100
80 10 8 7
60 5 3 3
31 31 31 33 2 2 1 2
40
20 0
Q4FY20
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q1FY21
0
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Exhibit 15: Peer valuation of listed global OTT firms … Add Zee Entertainment
Company Ticker Cur Adj Mkt cap EV P/E (x) EV/Revenue (x)
(INR mn) (INR mn) FY21 FY22 FY21 FY22
Netflix NFLX US Equity 2,17,174 227,729 74.56 51.81 9.15 7.79
Viacom CBS VIAC US Equity 16,839 37,111 6.92 5.92 1.43 1.34
Disney DIS US Equity 2,33,617 292,574 100.76 49.27 4.48 4.05
Discovery DISCA US Equity 15,380 30,913 7.43 6.63 2.98 2.78
Fox Corp FOXA US Equity 15,604 19,801 13.05 11.30 1.65 1.59
Average EV/Sales 3.5x
Note: pricing as on XX Month Year: Source: Bloomberg Consensus estimates for Not Rated Companies, Elara Securities Estimate
Coverage History
700
600
500
1
400
0
Apr-18
Jun-18
Apr-19
Jun-19
Apr-20
Jun-20
May-18
Dec-18
May-19
Dec-19
May-20
Aug-18
Aug-19
Aug-20
Sep-18
Sep-19
Feb-18
Nov-18
Nov-19
Jul-18
Feb-19
Jul-19
Feb-20
Jul-20
Jan-18
Mar-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
Not Covered Covered
Any clarifications / queries on the proposal as well as any future communication regarding the proposal should be addressed to Elara Securities (India) Private
Limited. It is important to note that any dispute with respect to this research report, would not have access to stock exchange investor redressal forum or
arbitration mechanism.
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited was incorporated in July 2007 as a subsidiary of Elara Capital (India) Private Limited.
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited is a SEBI registered Stock Broker in the Capital Market and Futures & Options Segments of National Stock Exchange of India
Limited [NSE], in the Capital Market Segment of BSE Limited [BSE] and a Depository Participant registered with Central Depository Services (India) Limited [CDSL].
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited’s business, amongst other things, is to undertake all associated activities relating to its broking business.
The activities of Elara Securities (India) Private Limited were neither suspended nor has it defaulted with any stock exchange authority with whom it is registered in
last five years. However, during the routine course of inspection and based on observations, the exchanges have issued advise letters or levied minor penalties on
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited for minor operational deviations in certain cases. Elara Securities (India) Private Limited has not been debarred from doing
business by any Stock Exchange / SEBI or any other authorities; nor has the certificate of registration been cancelled by SEBI at any point of time.
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited offers research services primarily to institutional investors and their employees, directors, fund managers, advisors who are
registered or proposed to be registered.
Details of Associates of Elara Securities (India) Private Limited are available on group company website www.elaracapital.com
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited is maintaining arms-length relationship with its associate entities.
Research Analyst or his/her relative(s) may have financial interest in the subject company. Elara Securities (India) Private Limited does not have any financial
interest in the subject company, whereas its associate entities may have financial interest. Research Analyst or his/her relative does not have actual/beneficial
ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report. Elara
Securities (India) Private Limited does not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately
preceding the date of publication of Research Report. Associate entities of Elara Securities (India) Private Limited may have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or
more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report. Research Analyst or his/her
relative or Elara Securities (India) Private Limited or its associate entities does not have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the
Research Report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative(s) has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company.
Research analyst or Elara Securities (India) Private Limited have not received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months. Associate
entities of Elara Securities (India) Private Limited may have received compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months. Research analyst or Elara
Securities (India) Private Limited or its associate entities have not managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve
months. Research analyst or Elara Securities (India) Private Limited or its associates have not received any compensation for investment banking or merchant
banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months. Research analyst or Elara Securities (India) Private Limited or its associate
entities may have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject
company or third party in connection with the Research Report in the past twelve months.
8
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited
The information contained in this note is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although
we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will
continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the
particular situation.
Elara Capital Inc.’s affiliate did not manage an offering for Zee Entertainment Limited.
Elara Capital Inc.’s affiliate did not receive compensation from Zee Entertainment Limited in the last 12 months.
Elara Capital Inc.’s affiliate does not expect to receive compensation from Zee Entertainment Limited in the next 3 months.
This material is based upon information that we consider to be reliable, but Elara Capital Inc. does not warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it
should not be relied upon as such.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or
strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice,
and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue. Prices, values or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the
interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested. Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please
note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate. Where an investment or security is denominated in a
different currency to the investor’s currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that
investment to the investor. The information contained in this report does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment
decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation
of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to you. Before acting on any recommendation in this material, you should consider whether it is
suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.
Certain statements in this report, including any financial projections, may constitute “forward-looking statements.” These “forward-looking statements” are not
guarantees of future performance and are based on numerous current assumptions that are subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Actual
future performance could differ materially from these “forward-looking statements” and financial information.
9
Elara Securities (India) Private Limited
Ravi Sundar Muthukrishnan PhD Director & Head of Research ravi.muthukrishnan@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8572
Research
Abhishek Shindadkar Analyst IT Services, Internet, Telecom abhishek.shindadkar@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8502
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Harshit Kapadia Analyst Capital Goods, Consumer Electronics harshit.kapadia@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8542
Jay Kale, CFA Analyst Auto & Auto Ancillaries jay.kale@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8507
Karan Taurani Analyst Alcoholic Beverages, Media & Entertainment karan.taurani@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8513
Mahrukh Adajania Analyst Banking & Financials mahrukh.adajania@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8500
Param Desai Analyst Healthcare, Pharmaceuticals, Real Estate param.desai@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8528
Pradeep Kumar Kesavan, CFA Analyst Strategy pradeep.kesavan@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8541
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Pratik Poddar Associate Diversified Financials, Insurance pratik.poddar@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8506
Rachael Alva Associate Aviation, Oil & Gas rachael.alva@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8525
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Tushar Wavhal Associate IT Services, Internet, Telecom tushar.wavhal@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8500
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Viren Deshpande Associate Alcoholic Beverages, Media & Entertainment viren.deshpande@elaracapital.com +91 22 6164 8565
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