ALEKS 1/7/20, 7(30 PM

Explanation

QUESTION

Archie must travel to a foreign country where a deadly strain of flu has ravaged the
population. Already, 22% of the population has succumbed to the flu and died.
There is a vaccine, but because the flu is extremely contagious, it spreads quite
rapidly, and to date only 11 out of every 13 people have been vaccinated. Thirty-
three percent of those who are not vaccinated die from the flu. Archie has just
enough time to be vaccinated before he leaves. What is the probability that Archie
will succumb to the flu and die while he is away? Round your answer to two
decimal places.

(If necessary, consult a list of formulas.)

EXPLANATION

The inhabitants of the foreign country can be partitioned into two non-overlapping
classes, namely those who have been vaccinated and those who have not. We
represent the event "has been vaccinated" by the abbreviation vac, and we
represent the event "has not been vaccinated" by the abbreviation not vac. We are
told that the event dies from flu occurs with probability0.22. The conditional
probability that a non-vaccinated person will die from the flu is given as 0.33 ; that
is, P dies from flu not vac = 0.33 . We shall also need to use the fact that 11 out
11
of every 13 people have been vaccinated, which we translate as P vac = .
13
The law of total probability applied to the current situation reads

P dies from flu =P dies from flu vac ·P vac +P dies from flu not vac ·P not vac
.

Filling in the numerical information, we see that

11 2
0.22 = P dies from flu vac · + 0.33· .
13 13
We deduce that

2 13
P dies from flu vac = 0.22 − 0.33· · = 0.20.
13 11

ANSWER

Thus, the answer is 0.20.

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