ALEKS 1/12/20, 12'43 PM

Learning

QUESTION

Among the huge literature on smoking are data detailing the relative
successfulness of males and females in quitting smoking. A study of 400
adults (ages 20 and older) who began various smoking-cessation programs
produced the data in the table below. In the table, "less than two weeks"
means that the individual returned to smoking within two weeks of beginning
the program; "between two weeks and one year" means that the individual
survived the first two weeks without smoking but returned to smoking within a
year; and "at least one year" means that the individual has not smoked for at
least a year since beginning the program.

The table is a contingency table whose cells contain the respective observed
frequencies of classifications of the 400 smokers. In addition, three of the cells
have blanks beneath the observed frequencies. Fill in these blanks with the
frequencies expected if the two variables, sex and length of the smoking
cessation period, are independent.

Round your responses to at least two decimal places.

Length of smoking cessation period

Between two
Less than two At least one
weeks and one Total
weeks year
year

52 108 78
Male 238

Sex
45 86 31
Female 162

Total 97 194 109 400

EXPLANATION

Contingency tables give information about two categorical variables. In this

problem, the two variables are sex and length of the smoking cessation
period. Each of the 400 individuals in the study is placed into one category for
each of the variables, and the counts are shown in the cells of the contingency
table. For instance, the count in the upper-left cell shows that 52 of the 400
individuals in the study were males who returned to smoking within two
weeks. These counts are called the observed frequencies.

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We're asked to find expected frequencies, assuming that

the two variables are independent. If the variables are
independent, then the fact that an observation appears in What is the
a particular category for one of the variables in no way purpose of
affects the probability that the observation appears in a computing
particular category for the other variable. For instance, if expected
the variables are independent, then the fact that an frequencies?
individual is male in no way affects the probability that
the individual returns to smoking within two weeks (and
vice versa). In other words, the events

A = the individual is male

and

B = the individual returns to smoking within two weeks

are independent.

If these events are independent, then the probability P A∩B of both A and
B occurring is

P A∩B =P A P B .

Let's use this fact to compute the expected frequency in the upper-left cell.
There are 400 individuals total in the sample, 238 of whom are male and 97 of
whom returned to smoking within two weeks. Thus, from the sample, we
238 97
estimate P A to be , and we estimate P B to be
. Under the
400 400
assumption of independence of the two variables, we estimate P A ∩ B to be
238 97
P A P B = · . So, under the assumption of independence, in a
400 400
sample of 400 smokers, we'd "expect"

238 97 The expected

400 ≈ 57.72 frequency 57.72
400 400

to be males who returned to smoking within two weeks. The number 57.72 is
the expected frequency for the upper-left cell of the table. (Some authors call
this the estimated expected frequency since the probabilities are estimated
from the sample.)

This discussion can be generalized to obtain a formula for the computation of

the expected frequency of any of the cells in the contingency table. Under the
assumption that the two categorical variables are independent,

Expected frequency of Row i Column j

cell in row i and column j Sample total total
= × ×
size Sample Sample

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size size
(Row i total) (Column j
= total)
Sample size

The expected
We can use this formula to compute the expected frequencies and
frequency of each of the 6 cells in the contingency table: the row and
column totals

Length of smoking cessation period

Between two
Less than two At least one
weeks and one Total
weeks year
year

(97)(238) (194)(238) (109)(238)

400 400 400
Male 238

57.72 115.43 64.86

Sex
(97)(162) (194)(162) (109)(162)
400 400 400
Female 162

39.29 78.57 44.15

Total 97 194 109 400

The blanks should be filled in as follows:

ANSWER

Length of smoking cessation period

Between two
Less than two At least one
weeks and one Total
weeks year
year

52 108 78
Male 238
57.72 64.86
Sex
45 86 31
Female 162
78.57

Total 97 194 109 400

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