Definiciones Básicas

Modelling and Simulation

Sistema
“a system is a construct
or collection of different
elements that together
produces results not
obtainable by the
elements alone”
Modelo
“... [A] model is a physical,
mathematical, or otherwise
logical representation of a
system, entity, phenomenon, or
process. Simply, models serve
as representations of events
and/or things that are real
(such as a historic case study)
or contrived (a use case)”
https://water.usgs.gov/edu/watercycle.html
Abstracción
“To produce a model, one abstracts from reality a description of the
system. However, it is important to note that a model is not meant to
represent all aspects of the system being studied. That would be too
timely, expensive, and complex — perhaps impossible. (...) Often, it is
challenging for the modeler to decide which aspects of a system need to
be included in the model.”
Modeling
“Modeling is an applied methodology that can describe the behavior of
that system using either a mathematical model or a symbolic model. It can
be the imitation of the operation of a real-world process or system over a
period of time. (...) Simulation, simulation model, or software model is also
used to refer to the software implementation of a model to predict the
behaviour of the system.”

(Modelación vs. Simulación)

Modelación y Simulación (M&S)
“M&S refers to the overall process of developing a model and then
simulating that model to gather data concerning performance of a system.
M&S uses modelling and simulations to develop data as a basis for making
managerial, technical, and training decisions.”
Visualización
“Visualization is the ability to represent data as a way to
interface with the model. (...) Visualization is used to
represent the data.”
Atributos de una Modelación
Resolución
Resolution is the degree of detail, in space and time, with which the real world is simulated. The more detail
included in the simulation, the higher the resolution.

http://desktop.arcgis.com/en/arcmap/latest/manage-data/raster-and-images/cell-size-of-raster-data.htm
Resolución
Resolution is the degree of detail, in space and time, with which the real world is simulated. The more detail
included in the simulation, the higher the resolution.
Escala geométrica
“Scale is the size of the overall scenario or event the simulation represents; this is also known as level.
Logically, the larger the system or scenario, the larger the scale of the simulation.”

http://desktop.arcgis.com/en/arcmap/latest/manage-data/raster-and-images/cell-size-of-raster-data.htm
Escalas de un proceso físico
Órdenes de magnitud en los cuales sucede
un proceso físico.

Magnitudes típicas, en espacio y tiempo, a

las cuales se manifiesta un proceso físico.

La mayoría de los procesos se producen

en múltiples escalas.

No vamos a poder capturar todas las

escalas y no nos interesa tenerlas todas
para la representación del problema a
solucionar.
Escala(s) característica(s) de un problema
Unidad(es) de tiempo y espacio
necesarias para capturar los
aspectos de interés de un
problema (procesos físicos).
● Puede existir diferentes escalas de interés para
un problema particular, y la estrategia para
representarlas no siempre tiene que basarse en la
escala más pequeña para llegar a representar las
escala más grande.
● Puede haber estrategias más adecuadas para
cada una.
● La resolución mínima, tanto temporal, como
espacial, con la cual se puede capturar la
totalidad de los aspectos relevantes del proceso
físico que permitirá dar solución al problema
determina la escala característica más pequeña
presente en el problema.
Fidelidad [y Validez]
“Fidelity is a term used to describe how the model or the simulation closely matches
reality. The model or simulation that closely matches or behaves like the real system
it is representing has a high fidelity.”

“Often, the term fidelity is used incorrectly with validity to express the accuracy of
the representation. Only validity conveys three constructs of accuracy of the model:
● reality: how the model closely matches reality
● representation: some aspects are represented, some are not
● requirements: different levels of fidelity required for different applications.

Validity answers the question: How well does the model match reality in the context
of purpose of the model?
Validación
“Validation is the process of
determining the degree to which the
model is an accurate representation of
the simuland. Validation examines
representational accuracy, that is, the
accuracy of representing the simuland
in the conceptual model and in the
results produced by the executable
model. The process of validation
assesses the accuracy of the models.”
● Más que un atributo, la validación
es parte del protocolo de
modelación.
● ¿Qué tan cercanos son los
resultados producidos por el
modelo al comportamiento del
sistema real?
● ¿Bajo qué rango de entradas los
resultados del modelo resultan
creíbles y útiles?
Verificación
“In M & S, verification is typically defined as ● Does the program code of the
the process of determining if an implemented executable model correctly
implement the conceptual
model is consistent with its specification.
model?
Verification is also concerned with whether the
● Does the conceptual model
model as designed will satisfy the requirements
satisfy the intended uses of the
of the intended application. Verification
model?
examines transformational accuracy, that is,
● Does the executable model
the accuracy of transforming the model’s
produce results when needed
requirements into a conceptual model and the and in the required format?
conceptual model into an executable model.”
Aleatoriedad Un set de parámetros de entrada
da como resultado una única salida
Modelo
Deterministico

¿El proceso a modelar

incluye incertidumbre y
variabilidad?
Se aceptan parámetros de entrada
aleatorios
Modelo
Estocástico
Se producirán salidas con algún
grado de aleatoriedad
Desarrollo de un Modelo (1)
Phase Technologies

Model Modeling

Code Development

Execute Computational

Analyze Data/information

M&S cycle and relevant technologies (adapted from Starr and Orlov) .
Desarrollo de
un Modelo (2)
“Verification ensures that M&S
development is conducted correctly,
while validation ensures that the
model represents the real system
and that the model is truly
representative of that system.”

Detailed M&S life cycle (adapted from Balci).

Verification, validation, and testing.
Protocolo de
Modelación
Modelo Conceptual
Modelo Conceptual
Conceptual models are
generally informal and
typically graphic depictions
of systems that quickly
and easily convey the
overall functionality of a
system and the main
processes involved.

In our case, it MUST contain all of the

most significant physical processes.
Definición
“Conceptual models are typically very informal in terms of detail and accuracy.
The focus is on quickly communicating the main qualities and capabilities of the
target system.”
Ejemplo