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The Honeymoon Effect: Does It Exist and Can It Be Predicted?

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Prev Sci
DOI 10.1007/s11121-014-0480-4
The Honeymoon Effect: Does It Exist and Can It Be Predicted?
Michael F. Lorber & Ann C. Eckardt Erlanger &
Richard E. Heyman & K. Daniel O’Leary
# Society for Prevention Research 2014
Abstract The population-level decrease over time in newly-
weds’ marital satisfaction is well established. Yet decreasing
marital satisfaction does not occur for all spouses to the same
extent, if at all. In the present article, we test for the presence
and predictability of a “honeymoon effect”—initially high,
but rapidly decreasing, marital satisfaction in newlywed cou-
ples. Community couples (N=395) were studied from 1 month
prior through 2.5 years after marriage. A supermajority of
couples showed initially high marital satisfaction that either
slowly decreased (women: 86 %) or remained steady (men:
78 %). Smaller groups of men and women showed initially
high (men) and moderately high (women), rapidly decreasing
marital satisfaction or steady, low levels of marital satisfac-
tion. Membership in these latter less optimal, classes was
most consistently predicted by spouses’ own intimate part-
ner violence (IPV) and depression, as well as by their
partners’ marital satisfaction, IPV, and depression. The
findings suggest that men at risk for the honeymoon effect
(~14 %) can be identified for selective prevention based
on such predictors. Women at risk for decreasing marital
satisfaction (~10 %) can also be identified based on risk
factors, but may also exhibit somewhat attenuated marital
satisfaction at engagement.
Keywords Marital satisfaction . Newlywed . Trajectory .
Longitudinal . Prevention
Decreases in newlyweds’ marital satisfaction are so well
known they have achieved axiomatic status in the scientific
M. F. Lorber (*) : A. C. E. Erlanger : R. E. Heyman
New York University, New York, NY, USA
e-mail: lorber2@gmail.com
K. D. O’Leary
Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA
literature and public consciousness (e.g., Naish 2008). Mar-
ital satisfaction starts high (including the transient “honey-
moon phase”) and decreases over time (Bradbury and
Karney 2004; Kurdek 1999). This population-level decrease
in marital satisfaction has been known for decades (Vaillant
and Vaillant 1993) and is borne out in meta-analyses
(Mitnick et al. 2009).
Several empirically supported interventions to prevent de-
clines in marital satisfaction and divorce have been developed
(e.g., Halford et al. 2004; Laurenceau et al. 2004). These
interventions are usually offered to marrying couples irrespec-
tive of risk (Halford 2004), with the exception of some that are
targeted to the transition to parenthood (e.g., Halford et al.
2010) or parents of preschoolers (Cowan et al. 2011). How-
ever, recent meta-analytic findings suggest that the transition
to parenthood does not reliably impact marital satisfaction
trajectories (Mitnick et al. 2009). Given the expense of pre-
ventive interventions, as well as possible iatrogenic effects for
low-risk newlyweds (Halford et al. 2001), scarce resources
would ideally be targeted to those newlyweds most in need,
namely those at greatest risk of rapidly decreasing relationship
adjustment.
What has become increasingly clear is that not all newly-
weds are either highly satisfied with their marriages or at equal
risk of rapidly decreasing marital satisfaction. This fact is
illustrated in the findings of four reports published in the last
few years (Anderson et al. 2010; Birditt et al. 2012; Lavner
and Bradbury 2010; Lavner et al. 2012). These investigations
each used statistical methods to identify underlying groups of
individuals or couples with similar trajectories of marital
satisfaction. Each study has identified one group with endur-
ing high levels of marital satisfaction, and another with ini-
tially low, decreasing marital satisfaction. Where these stud-
ies’ results have differed is in the number (from one to three)
and nature of intermediate classes identified. In Lavner and
Bradbury and Birditt et al.—each of whom found more than

one intermediate trajectory class—classes with lower initial
marital satisfaction tended to show greater decreases in marital
satisfaction. Lavner et al. found only one intermediate class,
and again significant decreases were observed. What the
results of these three studies jointly suggest is that marital
satisfaction does decrease early in marriage, but that it is
largely a function of initial marital satisfaction. Higher initial
satisfaction is associated with smaller decreases over time.
To the preventionist, the findings of Birditt et al. (2012),
Lavner and Bradbury (2010), and Lavner et al. (2012) suggest
a stepped approach to intervention. Couples with low initial
satisfaction may need clinical intervention/indicated preven-
tion to repair their ailing marriages. Couples with moderate
initial satisfaction may need lighter touch selective prevention
to avert modest decreases in marital satisfaction. Couples with
high initial satisfaction may not need any intervention, as they
show little risk for declining satisfaction.
Yet the findings of the long-term longitudinal study of
Anderson et al. (2010), in contrast to the three trajectory
studies reviewed above, challenge the notion that lower initial
marital satisfaction can be used to identify couples in need of
intervention to prevent decreases in marital satisfaction and its
sequelae. These authors identified a group of couples (10.6 %)
who typified what can be thought of as a “honeymoon effect.”
Their initial satisfaction was actually somewhat higher than
the 21.5 % who showed enduring high levels of marital
satisfaction. However, this state of elevated newlywed marital
satisfaction was fleeting, with a rapid initial decline to low
levels of satisfaction that persisted beyond 30 years in this 50-
year investigation. Interestingly, marital satisfaction in this
group eventually rebounded somewhat between 35 and
50 years, suggesting that there is hope for couples whose
marriages survive the initial and protracted decline character-
istic of the honeymoon effect.
The findings of Anderson et al. (2010) are particularly pro-
vocative for prevention in suggesting that some newlywed
couples who are at risk for future marital misery are just as
happily married as those who will experience years of marital
contentment. If such a honeymoon effect proves replicable,
selective prevention to avert it would be desirable. Moreover,
because those at risk of the honeymoon effect would not be
identifiable on the basis of their initial marital satisfaction,
prevention would benefit from identifying risk factors that por-
tend decreasing marital satisfaction among such highly satisfied
newlyweds. These predictors could then be targeted in selective
preventive interventions for happily married newlyweds who
are at elevated risk for a rapid decline in marital satisfaction.
The Present Investigation
Given the mixed findings on the nature of newlywed trajec-
tory groups, we sought first to reevaluate the latent trajectory
Prev Sci
classes underlying newlyweds’ marital satisfaction. We were
chiefly concerned with the presence or absence of a class that
exhibits the honeymoon effect (i.e., initially high, declining
marital satisfaction) because of its aforementioned relevance
to prevention. In a second step, we studied risk factors for
declining marital satisfaction. Our approach to predictor se-
lection was a combination of the predictor’s empirical track
record in relation to marital satisfaction and its availability in
our archival data set. We hypothesized that intimate partner
violence (IPV), depression and alcohol problems in either
spouse, the partner’s low marital satisfaction, lower socioeco-
nomic status (SES), and young age would increase risk for
membership in decreasing trajectory classes (e.g., in a honey-
moon effect class, should it emerge). Each of these risk factors
has shown concurrent and/or longitudinal prediction of mari-
tal dissatisfaction.
Greater IPV is linked to lower initial levels of, and greater
decreases in, marital satisfaction (e.g., Lavner and Bradbury
2010; Lawrence and Bradbury 2007; Testa and Leonard
2001). The rate of IPV in newlyweds is quite high and IPV
is remarkably stable over time in early marriage (Lorber and
O’Leary 2012). Given the high level of marital satisfaction
among newlyweds (Bradbury and Karney 2004), it stands to
reason that many newlywed couples are highly satisfied with
their marriages, despite experiencing some degree of IPV. Yet
the aversiveness of higher levels of IPV is likely to erode
relationship satisfaction over time.
Noxious couple environments are associated with mood
and substance use disorders in epidemiological samples (e.g.,
Goering et al. 1996; Markowitz et al. 1989; Whisman 2007).
In the present sample, we have found that individuals with
premarital dysphoria have lower marital satisfaction later in
marriage (Beach and O’Leary 1993). Longitudinal studies
support a decline in marital satisfaction in couples with dis-
crepant heavy alcohol consumption (e.g., Homish and Leon-
ard 2007), and a lifetime diagnosis of alcohol use disor-
der in wives directly and negatively relates to decreased
marital satisfaction in both partners (Cranford et al.
2010). One’s own depressive symptoms may contribute
to low newlywed marital satisfaction by distorting one’s
view of the relationship or by peeling back the veneer of
overinflated newlywed satisfaction in a manner charac-
teristic of “depressive realism” (Pietromonaco et al.
1992). The interpersonally challenging behaviors (e.g.,
lack of affection, increased IPV) associated with one’s
own or a partner’s depressive symptoms and/or problem
drinking may also erode relationship satisfaction (Coyne
et al. 2002; Leonard and Senchak 1996).
Lower SES predicted decreasing marital satisfaction in
Anderson et al. (2010) and Birditt et al. (2012). Per
Anderson et al., couples of lower SES may face more
stresses (e.g., financial strain, neighborhood dangers) that
challenge the relationship.
Prev Sci
Finally, a meta-analysis of five American data sets indi-
cates that young couples experience less marital satisfaction
(Glenn et al. 2010), after controlling for socioeconomic con-
founds. Glenn et al. cite theories pointing to the psychological
immaturity and poorer impulse control of youth, as well as
“marriage market” dynamics (e.g., marriage to an ill-suited
spouse by a young person who has not adequately tested their
desirability on the marriage market), to explain the age–mar-
ital satisfaction link. Youth is also associated with greater IPV
(Schumacher et al. 2001), which is inversely associated with
marital satisfaction.
Method
Analyses of the data of an archival, longitudinal data set of
newlyweds (O’Leary et al. 1989) were performed. Latent
trajectory classes in marital satisfaction have not been previ-
ously analyzed in this sample.
Participants
Community couples (N=396) planning their first marriages in
Onondaga and Suffolk counties, NY, were recruited via radio
or newspaper announcements between 1983 and 1986. De-
mographics are reported in Table 1. The couples were all
White, mostly in their 20s, and most had at least some college
education. Further details on recruitment of the sample have
been reported elsewhere (O’Leary et al. 1989).
Procedure
Couples made laboratory visits at engagement (1 month prior
to marriage), as well as at 6, 18, and 30 months post-marriage,
where they completed a battery of questionnaires.
Measures
Demographics Descriptive statistics on age, annual income
(averaged across partners), and years of education, as well as
all other study variables, are reported in Table 1.
Marital Satisfaction Each spouse completed the Short Marital
Adjustment Test (MAT; Locke and Wallace 1959), a widely
used self-report measure of global marital satisfaction. The
MAT discriminates between clinic and non-clinic couples
(e.g., O’Leary and Arias 1987) and correlates very highly with
more modern measures of marital satisfaction (e.g., r=.91
with the Couples Satisfaction Index; Funk and Rogge 2007).
The MAT has a weighted scoring system and total scores can
range from 2 to 158, with scores below 100 indicative of
marital distress.
Physical Intimate Partner Violence At the engagement assess-
ment, each spouse completed the Conflict Tactics Scale (CTS;
Straus 1979), a widely used questionnaire measure of the
frequency of violent and non-violent conflict tactics. Physical
IPV was measured with the eight-item physical aggression
subscale. The CTS items increase in behavioral severity—
from less (e.g., throwing something at the partner) to more
(e.g., using a gun or knife)—rather than sampling the IPV
construct with a number of related items. Item responses
consisted of frequency ranges, coded from 0 (no occurrences
of that specific act in the past year) to 6 (20 or more instances
of that specific act in the last year). Item averages from both
partners’ reports were subsequently averaged to yield IPV
scores for each individual that took into account the person’s
reports of perpetration and her/his partners’ reports of victim-
ization (e.g., one’s reports of slapping and the partner’s reports
of being slapped).
Depressive Symptoms At the engagement assessment, each
spouse completed the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI;
Beck et al. 1988), a widely used 21-item measure of depres-
sive symptoms that has high convergent validity with other
measures of depression and discriminates depression and
anxiety symptoms (Beck et al. 1988). The BDI scores ana-
lyzed were item sums. Cronbach’s alphas were .77 and .75 for
men and women, respectively.
Alcohol Problems At the engagement assessment, spouses
completed the Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test (MAST;
Selzer 1971), a widely used measure of the physical, social,
and psychological consequences of problem drinking. The
MAST has a weighted scoring system and total scores can
from 0 to 53. The MAST differentiates people who have
alcohol problems (e.g., convicted of drunk driving or drunk
and disorderly conduct) from controls (Selzer 1971).
Analytic Strategy
Analyses were carried out in four phases, using Mplus version
7 (Muthén and Muthén 1998–2012). In the first phase, un-
conditional latent growth curves (LGC) were fit to identify the
trajectories of women’s and men’s marital satisfaction for the
entire sample; they were also a preliminary model identifica-
tion step to the second phase analyses. In the second phase,
growth mixture models (GMMs; Muthén and Muthén 2000)
were estimated to investigate the presence and nature of
unmeasured or latent classes within which individual marital
satisfaction trajectories were similar but between which indi-
vidual trajectories differed significantly. The presence/absence
of a group of people who exhibited the “honeymoon effect”—
initially high, but rapidly declining marital satisfaction—was
of chief concern. In the third phase, we explored the corre-
spondence within couples of men’s and women’s membership
 Prev Sci

Table 1 Descriptive statistics

Women Men

M SD Min. Max. M SD Min. Max.

Age 23.41 2.98 15.00 36.00 25.22 3.66 16.00 37.00

Education 14.49 1.97 7.00 20.00 14.59 2.33 6.00 21.00
Incomea $15,254 $5,805 $2,100 $40,000 – – – –
MAT engagement 123.96 17.30 49.11 157.00 121.23 17.76 64.08 159.70
MAT 6 months 119.16 22.83 28.00 157.00 116.29 21.82 35.00 156.00
MAT 18 months 116.83 25.79 31.00 157.00 114.53 24.28 29.00 156.00
MAT 30 months 114.71 26.44 35.00 158.00 111.35 26.53 26.00 154.00
Aggression 1.28 0.59 1.00 5.00 1.14 0.38 1.00 6.67
Depression 4.40 4.06 0.00 24.00 3.77 4.17 0.00 30.00
Alcohol problems 1.92 3.08 0.00 30.00 3.41 5.30 0.00 40.00
a
Income is a couple level variable, averaged across partners

in the trajectory classes identified in the GMMs. In the fourth
phase, we conducted regression analyses to test our hypothe-
ses concerning the prediction of latent trajectory class by
demographic factors, personal and partner adjustment, IPV
perpetration and victimization, and partner marital satisfac-
tion, each measured at the engagement assessment.
Results
Missing Data
The rate of missing data was 10.14 %, primarily reflecting
attrition, with the exception of two women and one man who
did not provide any MAT data and thus were excluded from
analysis. Otherwise, missing data were handled with full
information maximum likelihood estimation to avoid estimate
biasing associated with listwise deletion of cases with missing
values (Schafer and Graham 2002).
Unconditional Latent Growth Curve Models
Unconditional LGC models were estimated for women’s and
men’s marital satisfaction trajectories. LGC models use struc-
tural equation modeling to form latent intercept (starting
point) and slope (change) variables that can then be studied
in relation to other variables (Fig. 1). The values of the
loadings of MAT scores at each wave on the slope factor
determine the placement of the intercept (i.e., the point in time
of the trajectories’ origination; 1 month prior to marriage in
the present case) and the shape of trajectories that are being
modeled. Slope loadings that are fixed to reflect the actual
intervals between waves of assessment would specify a linear
change model, with a constant amount and direction of change
from month-to-month (e.g., a loss of .5 marital satisfaction
points per month). However, nonlinearity is suggested by the
sample means presented in Fig. 1. Thus, we used the tech-
nique recommended by Little et al. (2006) to allow the data to
determine the shape of the estimated marital satisfaction
slopes, rather than imposing a particular model (e.g., linear
or quadratic) on the shape of change in marital satisfaction. In
this technique, two of the slope loadings were fixed to reflect
the times of assessment and two were freely estimated. The
engagement slope loading was set to 0 and the 30-month slope
loading was set to 31, as it occurred 31 months after the
engagement assessment. The slope loadings for the 6- and
18-month assessments were freely estimated to allow for
nonlinearity in the slopes. Intercept loadings were all set to 1.
The unconditional LGC models each adequately fit
women’s [χ2 (3) = 5.55, p = .136, CFI = 1.00, TLI = 0.99,
RMSEA=0.05] and men’s MAT data [χ2 (3)=2.23, p=.526,
CFI=1.00, TLI=1.00, RMSEA=0.00]. The final slope load-
ings were 0.00, 19.63, 29.28, and 31.00 for women’s and 0.00,
17.90, 25.79, and 31.00 for men’s engagement, 6-, 8-, and 30-
month assessments. Figure 1 shows that the estimated marital
satisfaction means fairly closely track the sample (i.e., ob-
served) means. Mean intercepts (i.e., MAT scores at engage-
ment) were 123.96 (SE=0.88) for women and 121.24 (SE=
0.89) for men. Both women (M=−0.25, SE=0.04, t=−5.93,
p<.001) and men (M=−0.26, SE=0.04, t=−6.01, p<.001)
showed statistically significant negative mean slopes, with
slopes reflecting the average change in MAT per month. On
average, marital satisfaction decreased by 3.00 and 3.12 points
per year for women and men, respectively, between engage-
ment and 30 months post-marriage. The respective Cohen’s d
values=−0.13 and=−.14, relative to the mean SD of 22.84 for
MAT scores over the course of the study, indicating a small
amount of annual change. For both men and women, the
decline in MAT scores was somewhat more rapid initially,
slowing somewhat at each subsequent assessment.
Prev Sci
Fig. 1 Unconditional latent
growth curve model
specifications and corresponding
sample (i.e., observed) and
estimated marital satisfaction
means. MAT is Marital
Adjustment Test. Asterisks
indicate freely estimated slope
loadings
Growth Mixture Modeling
GMMs were estimated separately for women and men and for
models with between one and five latent classes specified. The
simulation findings of Nylund et al. (2007) suggest that the
Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and the bootstrapped
likelihood ratio test (BLRT) are the best performing of the
respective information criteria and likelihood based tests for
deciding on the number of classes in growth mixture model-
ing. BIC is a measure of model fit that penalizes for model
complexity (i.e., number of latent classes); lower values indi-
cate better fit. The BLRT is a statistical test of the improve-
ment in model fit attributable to the inclusion of the kth class,
compared to a model with k−1 classes. The BIC and BLRT
each converged on the same solution for both women and
men.
Women For women, a three-class solution best fit the data
(BIC=11,611; BLRT p<.001). The four-class solution had a
greater BIC (11,619) and nonsignificant BLRT test (p=.060).
As shown in Table 2 and Fig. 2, Class 1 (3.97 %) women
exhibited low, relatively steady marital satisfaction trajecto-
ries. They exhibited MAT scores in the distressed range at
engagement, as judged by the intercept. Their MAT scores
increased by a nonsignificant 3.36 points per year (d=0.15),
judging by the t test for the slope. Class 2 (9.81 %) women had
moderately high, quickly decreasing trajectories, losing 19.32
MAT points per year, d=−.85. However, this degree of de-
crease lessened with time, and a relatively stable low level of
marital satisfaction was evident by 18 months into the mar-
riages—more than 2 standard deviations lower than it had
been at engagement (d=−2.18). Class 3 (86.22 %) women
exhibited high, slowly decreasing trajectories, losing 1.32
MAT points per year, which despite a small effect size (d=
−0.06) was statistically significant given the large number of
women in this class. Judging by their non-overlapping confi-
dence intervals, the intercepts for the three classes were all
significantly different, p<.05. Slopes significantly differed for
 Prev Sci

Table 2 Latent trajectory classes of men’s and women’s marital satisfaction

Gender/class Intercept Slope

% M SE t CI low CI high M SE t CI low CI high

Women
Low, steady (1) 3.97 76.59 6.08 12.60 64.68 88.51 0.28 0.29 0.96 −0.29 0.85
Moderately high, quickly decreasing (2) 9.81 115.57 2.84 40.72 110.01 121.13 −1.61 0.26 −6.33 −2.11 −1.12
High, slowly decreasing (3) 86.22 127.02 0.93 137.33 125.20 128.83 −0.11 0.04 −2.58 −0.19 −0.03
Men
Low, steady (1) 7.23 88.94 6.38 13.94 76.43 101.45 −0.09 0.28 −0.32 −0.64 0.46
High, quickly decreasing (2) 14.06 121.12 2.45 49.44 116.32 125.92 −1.78 0.13 −14.10 −2.02 −1.53
High, steady (3) 78.71 123.74 1.60 77.16 120.60 126.88 −0.04 0.05 −0.85 −0.13 0.05

Italic t test results are significant at p<.01; CI=95 % confidence interval

Classes 1 vs. 2 and 2 vs. 3 (p<.05), but not 1 vs. 3. Because the
trajectory classes were latent, class membership for each
individual was not observed but inferred from the posterior
(model implied) probabilities of their membership in each
class. The mean probability of each woman’s membership in
her most likely class was 0.84, 0.93, and 0.97 for Classes 1, 2,
and 3 respectively.
Men For men, a three-class solution best fit the data (BIC=
11,660; BLRT p<.001). The four-class solution had a greater

Fig. 2 Latent trajectory classes

for women’s (a) and men’s (b)
marital satisfaction
Prev Sci
BIC (11,667) and nonsignificant BLRT test (p=.090). Per
Table 2 and Fig. 2 results, Class 1 men (7.23 %) exhibited a
low, relatively steady trajectory. Their loss of 1.08 MAT points
per year (d=−0.05) was not a statistically significant one.
Class 2 men (14.06 %) exhibited a high, rapidly decreasing
trajectory, losing 21.36 MAT points per year, d=−0.94. This
descent appeared to slow somewhat between 6 and 18 months
post-marriage, then regain speed. Class 3 men (78.71 %)
exhibited a high, steady trajectory, losing a nonsignificant
0.48 MAT points per year, d=−0.02. Judging by their non-
overlapping confidence intervals, the Class 1 intercept was
significantly different from those of Classes 2 and 3 (p<.05),
but the intercepts of Classes 2 and 3 did not significantly
differ. Slopes significantly differed for Classes 1 vs. 2 and 2
vs. 3, but not 1 vs. 3. The mean probabilities of men’s
membership in their most likely classes were 0.76, 0.88, and
0.93, for Classes 1, 2, and 3, respectively.
Relationship Between Women’s and Men’s Trajectory Classes
Men’s and women’s posterior or model implied trajectory
class memberships (i.e., the class each individual most likely
belongs to) were significantly associated, likelihood ratio (4)=
42.18, p<.001 (see Table 3). Men and women tended to have
partners in counterpart classes, 81.22 % agreement, kappa=
0.29. Most of the agreement comes from the fact that roughly
77 % of the couples contained Class 3 men and women; 2 and
3 % showed concordance for Classes 1 and 2, respectively.
Nonetheless, there were notable “mismatches” in male and
female class (~19 % of couples). Most mismatches involved
pairings of Class 1 or 2 men and women with Class 3 men and
women, given the high prevalence of Class 3.
Predicting Trajectory Class Membership from Variables
Measured at Engagement
Latent trajectory class was individually regressed on demo-
graphic factors (age, income, and years of education), per-
sonal adjustment (depressive symptoms and alcohol prob-
lems), partner adjustment (depressive symptoms and alco-
hol problems), as well as physical IPV (perpetration and
victimization) and partner marital satisfaction, each mea-
sured at the engagement assessment. These analyses are a
type of multinomial regression, except that the dependent
variable consists of latent rather than observed categories.
Membership in each category vs. a reference category is
regressed on a predictor. The odds ratio (OR; parallel to the
standardized regression coefficient, β, in ordinary least
squares regression) indicates the extent to which the odds
of being in the target category vs. the reference category
change with each unit increase in the predictor. We report
the significant associations below.
Women Compared with Class 3 (high, slowly decreasing), the
probability of women’s membership in Class 2 (moderately
high, quickly decreasing) was increased by their own greater
depressive symptoms (OR=1.26, p<.001) and IPV (OR=
1.76, p=.033), as well as by their male partners’ greater
depressive symptoms (OR=1.11, p=.015), IPV (OR=5.55,
p<.001), and lower marital satisfaction (OR=0.97, p=.010).
Compared with Class 3 (high, slowly decreasing), the
probability of women’s membership in Class 1 (low, steady)
was increased by their own greater depressive symptoms
(OR=1.39, p<.001), as well as by their male partners’ greater
depressive symptoms (OR=1.12, p=.004), greater IPV (OR=
4.49, p=.031), and lower marital satisfaction (OR=0.94,
p=.001).
Classes 1 and 2 women did not significantly differ on any
risk factor.
Men Relative to Class 3 (high, steady), the probability of
men’s membership in Class 2 (high, quickly decreasing) was
increased by their own greater depression (OR=1.17, p=.008)
and greater IPV (OR=8.23, p=.009), as well as their female
partners’ greater depression (OR=1.13, p=.005) and lower
marital satisfaction (OR=0.98, p=.021).
Relative to Class 3 (high, steady), the probability of men’s
membership in Class 1 (low, steady) was increased by their
own greater age (in decades; OR=4.98, p=.032), greater
depressive symptoms (OR=1.33, p<.001), and greater IPV
(OR=8.19, p=.014), as well as their female partners’ greater
depression (OR =1.17, p= .013), greater IPV (OR= 3.55,
p<.001), and lower marital satisfaction (OR=0.94, p<.001).
Relative to Class 2 (high, quickly decreasing), the proba-
bility of men’s membership in Class 1 was increased by their
own greater depressive symptoms (OR=1.14, p=.037), as
well as by their female partners’ greater IPV (OR=2.46,
p=.022) and lower marital satisfaction (OR=0.96, p=.005).
Discussion
We first asked if the honeymoon effect exists. That is, are there
individuals with initially high but rapidly decreasing marital
satisfaction in the newlywed period? Second, if such individ-
uals were found to exist, we next asked whether they could be
identified at engagement. The answer to each of these ques-
tions is a qualified “yes.” The results suggest the presence of
three marital satisfaction classes in both men and women.
Marital satisfaction showed evidence of a small decrease of
approximately .13 to .14 of a SD per year across the entire
sample. However, this effect seemed to be most strongly
driven by roughly 10 % of women and 14 % of men who
reported moderately high (women) or high (men) levels of
marital satisfaction at engagement, an extremely sharp de-
crease over time (losing nearly 1 SD per year), and ultimately

Table 3 Correspondence between men’s and women’s trajectory classes
Male predicted trajectory class
Female predicted trajectory class 1: Low, steady
1: Low, steady 4 (.9)
2: Moderately high, quickly decreasing 5 (1.9)
3: High, slowly decreasing 14 (20.3)
Observed and expected (under independence) frequencies for predicted latent trajectory class membership
the lowest mean marital satisfaction 30 months into their
marriages. The pattern in men could well be described as a
classic honeymoon effect in that their mean initial satisfaction
was nearly identical to that of the 78 % of men who had
initially high levels of marital satisfaction that showed no
evidence of a decrease over the study period. The correspond-
ing pattern in women is not an unambiguous classic honey-
moon effect. Their initial satisfaction was moderately high, but
still somewhat lower than the 86 % of women who had initially
high levels of satisfaction and showed only a slight decrease
over time. Another group of men (7.23 %) and women (3.97 %)
showed relatively steady low levels of marital satisfaction from
engagement through 30 months. Membership in these three
marital satisfaction trajectory classes could be predicted at
engagement by physical IPV, depressive symptoms, problem
drinking, and lower education, as described below.
The level and course of marital satisfaction was similar
within most, but not all, couples. Approximately three in four
couples were concordant for “optimal trajectories” (i.e., high
satisfaction that shows no or little change over time). Approx-
imately 1 in 20 couples were concordant for less optimal
(decreasing or persistently low) trajectories. Despite substan-
tial associations in men’s and women’s marital satisfaction,
however, approximately one in five of couples showed dis-
cordant trajectory classifications. The most common discor-
dant configuration was a man or woman on an “optimal
trajectory” with a spouse who was either highly dissatisfied
from the outset or became so over time. Many men and
women were married to spouses who did not initially or
eventually would not share their high level of marital
satisfaction.
Implications for Prevention
The need for preventive interventions that specifically target
high risk couples has been repeatedly stressed (e.g., Halford
2004; Sullivan and Bradbury 1997). Of particular interest to
preventionists is whether couples in each of the marital satis-
faction trajectory classes differed at engagement in ways that
can be used to identify who may need intervention and how
intensive interventions should be. Relatively brief, selective
preventive intervention would ideally target couples who will
Prev Sci
2: High, quickly decreasing 3: High, steady
3 (1.8) 8 (12.3)
14 (3.9) 13 (26.2)
31 (42.3) 302 (284.5)
experience a fleeting “honeymoon effect.” Consistent with the
findings of Anderson et al. (2010), the honeymoon effect was
apparent in some men in that at engagement, they were just as
satisfied as those men who would remain happily married,
differing by .15 of a standard deviation. This similarity neces-
sitates the use of other risk factors to identify them. The findings
of our predictive models suggest that happy newlywed men who
used more IPV and/or reported more depressive symptoms, as
well as those whose partners reported more depressive symptoms
and/or lower marital satisfaction were at risk of rapid declines in
marital satisfaction. Each of these factors measured 1 month prior
to marriage increased the probability of initially high, but plung-
ing marital satisfaction trajectories.
Women showed a somewhat different pattern. Those who
would eventually exhibit declining marital satisfaction were
highly satisfied at engagement, but somewhat less so than
women who would remain highly satisfied, with small de-
clines over time. As previously noted, it may not be fair to
describe this as a honeymoon effect given the difference in
engagement marital satisfaction (d=.66), which was consis-
tent with the comparable groups’ differences in Birditt et al.
(2012; d=.46), Lavner and Bradbury (2010; d=.54), and
Lavner et al. (2012; d=.74). Considering these four studies’
results jointly, selective prevention may be signaled by mod-
erately lower levels of marital satisfaction reported by women,
but perhaps not men, at engagement. This pattern is consistent
with Gottman’s (1990) idea of women as the “emotional
barometers” of their marriages. However, the task is com-
plicated by substantial overlap in initial marital satisfac-
tion in those who are destined for declining—in contrast
to relatively stable high—marital satisfaction. The mean
marital satisfaction of these two groups differs signifi-
cantly, but many who will exhibit the declining marital
satisfaction are just as satisfied as those who will not.
Thus, the prediction of declining satisfaction by other
risk factors remains relevant. Our predictive model find-
ings indicate that selective prevention might profitably
target women who are happily married but experience
more depressive symptoms and/or perpetrate higher
levels of IPV, as well as women whose partners report
more depressive symptoms, lower marital satisfaction,
and/or who perpetrate higher levels of IPV.
Prev Sci
The present findings also indicate that more than 5 %
of couples are already in need of clinical marital
intervention/indicated prevention at the outset of their mar-
riages. Although these couples have elevated scores on a
variety of risk markers (e.g., physical IPV and depressive
symptoms), they can be readily identified by their abnor-
mally low marital satisfaction from the outset. Given these
multiple problem indications, multimodal intervention may
be beneficial.
Limitations
The present findings, although provocative, are qualified by a
few methodological limitations. First, the sample was studied
in the 1980s, and the extent to which our findings may
generalize to today’s couples is unknown. However, we have
noted similarities between our findings with those in prior
studies, some of which were based on couples married in the
same epoch as ours (Anderson et al. 2010; Birditt et al. 2012;
1980s), and some more recently married, such as Lavner and
Bradbury (2010; 1990s) and Lavner et al. (2012; 1990s and
2000s). Second, there are newer measures of marital satisfac-
tion—such as the Couples Satisfaction Inventory (Funk and
Rogge 2007), developed using Item Response Theory—that
may be more sensitive to change (Mitnick et al. 2009). Third,
our selection of predictors was constrained by what was
available in our archival data set. Many additional theoretical
and empirical advances in the prediction of declining marital
satisfaction have been made since our study was conducted,
and thus several potential predictors of more recent interest
(e.g., demand–withdraw interactions and the couples’ oral
telling of their relationship history; Gottman 1994) could not
be included in our analyses. Fourth, we may have had too few
subjects to detect very low prevalence trajectories. Fifth, most
of the study couples were White and generalization to minor-
ity couples is not necessarily warranted. Future research with
contemporary couples, more sensitive and frequently mea-
sured marital satisfaction, greater N, as well as research in
sizable minority groups is necessary to evaluate the replica-
bility and extendibility of the present findings.
Conclusion
Most newlywed women and men were happy and showed
little change in satisfaction over their marriages’ first
2.5 years. A small group of men had initially high but
rapidly dissipating marital satisfaction—showing the clas-
sic “honeymoon effect.” These men were not distinguish-
able from well-adjusted couples in initial marital satisfac-
tion. A small group of women also had moderately high
initial marital satisfaction that declined rapidly. However,
their initial marital satisfaction was somewhat lower than
that of those who would remain happily married.
High or moderately high, quickly decreasing marital satis-
faction in men and women could be predicted by factors
measured 1 month prior to marriage—most consistently de-
pressive symptoms and IPV. These risk factors can be used to
identify couples who could benefit from selective prevention.
Another small group of couples may be in need of clinical
intervention or indicated prevention based on their relatively
stable low levels of marital satisfaction prior to marriage. In
sum, ours and prior findings together suggest an approach to
prevention that considers both the initial level of marital
satisfaction and other risk factors for decline.
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