Asia Pacific

Megatrends 2040
Outputs from the First Dialogue
of the Asia Pacific Foresight Group
30th September to 1st October, 2019

Australia’s Innovation Catalyst

Citation
Atherton J and Cameron A. (2020). Asia Pacific megatrends 2040.
CSIRO’s Data61: Brisbane, Australia.

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Acronyms
AI: Artificial Intelligence
APFG: Asia Pacific Foresight Group
ASEAN: Association of South East Asian Nations
IP: Intellectual Property
IT: Information technology
OECD: Organisation for Economic Co-operation
and Development
STEM: Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics
US: United States

Acknowledgements
This event was a strategic co-investment project
supported by CSIRO Global.
Contents

1 The Asia Pacific Foresight Group...................................................................................3

2 Megatrends for the Asia Pacific region........................................................................7

2.1 Megatrends presented by individuals.................................................................................................................... 7
2.2 Megatrends of the Asia Pacific region.................................................................................................................. 11
Opportunities and challenges..........................................................................................................................................12

3 Bringing it all together................................................................................................ 14

Possible areas of collaboration........................................................................................................................................ 14
Towards a prosperous, equitable and healthy future.................................................................................................... 14
Actions for the Asia Pacific Foresight Group going forward.........................................................................................15

4 References.................................................................................................................... 16
2 Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040
1 The Asia Pacific
Foresight Group
What is the Asia Pacific Foresight Group?
The Asia Pacific Foresight Group (APFG)
brings together foresight practitioners,
planners, academics and government
strategists from across the Asia Pacific
region. Many of the members are leaders
in their respective fields and trained
in the discipline of strategic foresight.
Strategic foresight is the structured
analysis of future trends, scenarios
and risks to inform present day
decision making.
What are the group’s objectives?
The APFG aims to provide impartial, evidence-based,
engaging and policy-relevant descriptions of plausible futures
for the region. Work from the group may also advance
the emerging profession and research field of strategic
foresight. Materials produced by this group may be used by
governments, business and communities throughout the Asia
Pacific region and worldwide.
Specifically, the group aims to:
• Identify cross-border trends and megatrends that will
impact on Asia Pacific nations and organisations in the next
10–20 years
• Create a shared dialogue about plausible future events and
foster collaboration and cooperation amongst Asia Pacific
countries
• Build and develop strategic foresight capability in partner
agencies across the region
• Build a database of trends relevant to member countries
in the Asia Pacific region made available via an easy-to-use,
and low-maintenance, online platform
• Publish a statement after each annual or bi-annual
dialogue on the trends likely to impact the Asia Pacific
region in the next 10–20 years.
3
What happened at the first dialogue?
The first dialogue was hosted in Australia by CSIRO’s Data61 at Sydney’s iconic Sydney Tower from September 30
to October 1, 2019. This dialogue was attended by 36 people from 13 nations and economies. Representatives
from the OECD, Asian Development Bank and Temasek were also in attendance.
The nations and economies include:

Canada

South Korea

Bhutan Japan

Hong Kong, China

Cambodia
Vietnam
Singapore
Indonesia
Malaysia

Australia
Cook Islands

New Zealand

The first day of the Sydney Asia Pacific Foresight Group

dialogue covered:
• An introduction titled ‘The amazing Asia Pacific region’
by Dr Sarah Pearson, Chief Innovation Officer and Chief
Scientist of Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs
and Trade
• Stories on the impact of foresight in government
decision making
• A discussion on the methods, data sources and tools
practitioners use
• The construction of a timeline with impactful events from
the past (1900–2019), and predictions of what might be the
history-changing events of the future (2020–2100). Ms Jessica Atherton sticking impact events and predictions onto the timeline
(1900–2100)
The second day discussed megatrends for the Asia Pacific
region brought to the forum by participants.

4 Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040

5
6 Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040
2 Megatrends for the
Asia Pacific region
A megatrend is a powerful and long-term
trajectory of change reshaping the
strategic and operational environment
for governments, companies and
communities. Megatrends build gradually
but can be associated with sudden change
when tipping points are encountered.
Table 1 Megatrends presented by individuals
MEGATREND TITLE
Autonomous Economy—
Economic Activities Managed
by Advanced Automation
and Robots
Time frame: 15–20 years
By Mr Mohd Nurul Azammi Bin
Mohd Nudri, Deputy Director,
Malaysian Industry–Government
Group for High Technology
Big Data, Artificial Intelligence—
Centred on the Fourth Industrial
Revolution
Time frame: 20 years
By Dr Hyung Doo Nam, Associate
Professor, Law, Presidential
Committee on the Fourth
Industrial Revolution of Korea;
and Mr Lee Jong Hyuek, Deputy
Director, Presidential Committee
Digitalised Information is the
Growth Driver
Time frame: 10 years
By Dr Tran Thi Hong Minh,
Director, Business Registration
Management, National Center for
Socio-economic Information and
Forecast, Ministry of Planning and
Investment, Vietnam
2.1 Megatrends presented
by individuals
Several dialogue attendees researched and presented a
megatrend they believe will affect the Asia Pacific region.
These megatrends are summarised below.
Summaries have been adapted from material submitted by
APFG members—copyright remains with contributors listed.
MEGATREND DESCRIPTION
Information Technology (IT) is developing quickly. This helps build competitiveness in cities
even as working populations shrink due to lifestyle changes and declining birth rates.1
These developments also help cater for emerging consumer demands for sustainability,
virtual experiences (e.g. social shopping, personalised services), and transparent practices in
government and business.
Advances in IT will eventually create ‘autonomous economies’.2,3 Here, digital technologies do
not simply enable economic activity; they drive it. Supply chains become completely autonomous
through distributed ledger and related IT systems. Governance becomes decentralised, which
makes it more efficient, transparent and trustworthy. Work becomes more productive while
allowing people more time for leisure, friends and family.
In the Fourth Industrial Revolution, disruptive innovation is taking place. The start-up ecosystem
and emerging digital technologies are increasingly serving as the basis for industrial innovation
and social reform. These industrial innovations are being formed across six strategic industries:
bio health, manufacturing, finance, mobility / logistics, agriculture and fisheries, and smart cities.
These changes are not the gradual development that the industrial revolutions of the past
showed. It is virtually impossible to regulate such changes and innovations while following
social norms, after these changes and innovations occur. On one hand, norms and regulations
are thought to inhibit innovation. In addition, competition among countries can lead to greater
dependence on human machines, widening the gap between the rich and the poor, decent jobs
and deteriorating labour realities, and digital divides. These problems cannot be resolved by the
efforts of individual nations. Therefore, it is time for consultation between countries and a joint
response as a human community.
Information is increasingly being digitalised and harnessed through the Internet of Things,
blockchain, cloud-based data storage, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and big data. Digitalised
information now facilitates international integration by reducing the cost of trade, coordinating
global value chains, as well as connecting businesses, consumers, ideas and technologies
across borders. Meanwhile, digitalised databases and e-government improve the efficiency of
governance and policy making. For companies, digitalised information informs decisions in
product selection, human resources, recruitment and technology application, which in turn help
companies to reduce costs and maximise profits. As time continues, we will increasingly see
digitalised information provide the backbone for international integration, e-government and
day-to-day business operations.4
7
 MEGATREND TITLE
The Next Digital Economy
Time frame: 20 years
By Mr Imran Arshad, Director,
Communications and Outreach,
Policy Horizons Canada
From West to East, from Young
to Old, from Man to Machine
Time frame: 20 years
By Mr Mohamed Butt, Executive
Director, Hong Kong Productivity
Council; and Dr Lawrence Cheung,
Chief Innovation Officer, Hong
Kong Productivity Council
Super Ageing Societies
Time frame: 20 years
By Dr Kuniko Urashima, Deputy
Director, Science and Technology
Foresight Centre, National Institute
of Science and Technology Policy
Labour in Indonesia
Time frame: 20+ years
By Mr Indra Murty Surbakti,
Social Vulnerability Statistics,
BPS-Statistics Indonesia; and
Ms Sri Hartini Rachmad,
Researcher and Lecturer,
BPS‑Statistics Indonesia
Asia Pacific Health Dynamics in a
State of Flux
Time frame: 5–20 years
By Dr Darren Gray, Head,
Department of Global Health,
Australian National University
8 Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040
MEGATREND DESCRIPTION
Digital technologies are maturing and combining to form the next digital economy.5 The next
digital economy will revolutionise value chains, and introduce a different model for the
production and consumption of goods and services throughout the world. Much of our economic
activity may become digitally intermediated, customised, on-demand and globally distributed.
This transition offers many opportunities and challenges. Governments will be challenged
to encourage or make investments that capture the benefits, while responding to demands
for protection by disrupted industries and managing negative impacts on employment and
communities. Governments may also need to change regulations, taxation, trade policy and
fiscal policy to account for new models of production and value chains.
From West to East: The centre of economic and technology development is shifting from the
West to the East.6 The East will become a major consumer market, which will shape future
product design and increase market competition between the East and the West.
From young to old: As baby boomers retire, the ageing population is becoming more
prominent.6 This will pressure the social welfare system, and create a growing demand for
services, technologies (‘gerontech’) and products for the elderly.
From man to machine: The development of Industry 4.0, AI, robotics and automation will replace
many manual labour jobs.7 It will also introduce a new generation of services and products.7
Economies in the Asia Pacific, particularly the advanced economies, are predicted to age rapidly
in the coming decades.8-10 This trend carries several implications. Governments may need to
increase taxes to maintain the social security system. Companies may need to reconsider their
business model, pension costs and talent management goals. They may also need to procure talent
from other nations. Meanwhile, governments and companies will be increasingly pressured to
create jobs, especially for the elderly and poor. Additionally, healthcare systems will need to be
reformed to cope with larger elderly populations.
Scientists and policy makers can improve the quality of life of all generations through increased
inter-generational cohabitation, ‘smart society’ technologies and other innovations to encourage
the continuing integration of the elderly in society.
Labour dynamics are shifting in Indonesia.11 Population growth is slowing and the population is
starting to age. However the dependency ratio is predicted to remain relatively low in the next
twelve years. This period represents a demographic window of opportunity where Indonesia’s
economy can grow by virtue of employment alone. A key opportunity is growing the number
of women in the workforce—particularly since the national population is predicted to include
more women than men by 2035. Another opportunity may be the export of labour, which has in
the past increased in South East Asia through free trade agreements. Digital technologies also
present risks and opportunities—with automation eliminating some jobs, but the gig economy
and e-commerce growing others.
Health dynamics are changing in the Asia Pacific. Life expectancies have increased with the
development of nations, however larger life expectancies have helped form ageing populations.
By the same token, economic development, rapid urbanisation and Westernisation of diets has
contributed to an increase in non-communicable diseases across the region.12,13 Meanwhile, the
less developed nations face this increase while still being significantly burdened by infectious
diseases.13 These diseases have the potential to spread across and outside of the Asia Pacific,
especially given the region’s high- interconnectedness and antimicrobial resistance. Healthcare is
also complicated by increases in natural disasters, air pollution and temperatures.13 Each of these
issues is made worse by the lack of universal healthcare across the region.
Personal choices around diet and strategic investment and regulation by government will be
required to alleviate the health burden. Interventions to address the health issues in the region
will have positive and negative impacts on the private sector and management of this will be
complex. Interdisciplinarity will be key for moving forward.
MEGATREND TITLE
Mental Health
Time frame: 5–20 years
By Mr Stephen Forshaw, Head,
Public Affairs, Temasek
The Era of the Entrepreneur for
Economic and Social Impact
Time frame: 5–20 years
By Dr Sarah Pearson, Chief
Innovation Officer and Chief
Scientist, innovationXchange,
Department of Foreign Affairs and
Trade, Australian Government; and
Ms Liza Noonan, ASEAN Region
Director, CSIRO
Global Political Turmoil
Time frame: 5–10 years
By Dr Anie Febriastati,
Head, Strategic Planning, Lee Kuan
Yew School of Public Policy
Trade and Technology
Bifurcation
By Mr Michael Buchanan, Head,
Strategy, Temasek
MEGATREND DESCRIPTION
Mental illnesses are reaching a critical threshold where they will have to be treated by public health
and public policy mechanisms with the same, or even greater, impact than other health conditions.
Depression is among the largest causes of disability in the world, while anxiety disorders and
substance abuse are the fastest growing medical conditions.14,15 From 2010 to 2030, the global
economic cost of mental illness is predicted to exceed US$16 trillion.16
In the coming years, mental health conditions are likely to be complicated by other megatrends.
For instance, ageing populations will experience a greater variety and number of mental health
conditions, such as dementia and depression. Further, lifestyles, consumerism and our dependence
on social media ‘validation’ is likely to see an increase in anxiety disorders, stress, post-traumatic
conditions and ‘digital burnout’.
Increasingly, new start-ups are focussing on social impact. This is partly driven by youth, many
of which strongly believe that businesses should be a force for positive change in society.
Investment for social impact is also increasing. The Asian Venture Philanthropy Network
estimates that in the last 10 years US$904 million has been deployed by private impact
investments and US$11.3 billion by development finance institutes in South East Asia alone.17
China, Singapore, South Korea and Japan lead the way in the growth and sophistication of
start-up ecosystems in Asia.18 However, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia are making strides in
policy and programs to support home-grown entrepreneurs. Governments and development
groups can complement this with investment in digital infrastructure, support/services for
young entrepreneurs and international ties with advanced economies.19 Communities are also
supporting entrepreneurs—both those with an economic mandate to grow jobs and economies,
and those that will solve communities’ social challenges. Entrepreneurship is similarly supported
by mobile Internet connectivity, which provides access to education, finance and international
markets.20
Domestic and regional unrest is increasing.21 One example is Brexit, which sent shockwaves
across the European Union.22 Later, Trump’s victory as US President signalled a rise of nationalism
and populism. In 2019 in Hong Kong, a planned law to send alleged criminals to mainland China
sparked one of the largest protest demonstrations in the nation since 1997. In 2019, Jakarta saw
its largest rally since 1998 when mass street protests led to the fall of former president Suharto’s
three-decade rule.
In the face of political turmoil, it is important for governments and policy makers to engage and
involve their people in the policy making, implementation and monitoring process. Governments
need make informed decisions on how they manage their policy trade-offs. Governments also
need to maintain the delicate balance between meeting the needs and expectation of its people
without falling into the trap of populism.
Trade globalisation is slowing down with a shift towards localisation and regionalisation.
This trend is demonstrated by decreases in the trade intensity (gross exports as % of gross
output) of most industries around the world between 2007 and 2017.23 Similarly, in a 2018 survey
of Japanese corporates based around the world, the top reason for business expansion was to
increase sales in local markets.24 Both statistics suggest a shift to production for the local market.
At the same time, regionalism may increase in South East Asia, as goods production for the West
is rerouted from China.
The trend away from globalisation has been driven by two major factors. Firstly, US–China trade
tensions have caused economies to reconsider their approach to trade. Secondly, shorter supply
chains have become economically viable through digital technologies such as automation and 5G.
9
 MEGATREND TITLE
The Rise of China and a
New Cold War in the Greater
Mekong Subregion
Time frame: 15–20 years
By Mr Virak Ou, President,
Future Forum Cambodia
Climate Change
Time frame: Now until the
foreseeable future
By Ms Pei Shan Lim and
Mr Gurubaran Subramaniam
Adaptations to Climate Change
Time frame: 20+ years
By Mr Petero Okotai, Chief
Executive Officer, Cook Islands
Investment Corporation
Climate disruption
Time frame: 20+ years
By Ms Wendy McGuiness
10 Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040
MEGATREND DESCRIPTION
Political relations in the greater Mekong subregion are shifting. Some countries are nationalising
while others are becoming more vulnerable to external influences due to the rise of China, the
US–China trade war and increasing levels of external debt. At the same time, some Mekong
countries which have the promised support of China are ignoring some trade and security
cooperation conditions set by the West. As a result, the United States and European Union are
promoting diplomacy with some of the region’s nations and declining it with others.
This megatrend has vast implications for regional security, governments and human rights.
Regional mechanisms such as the united rule-based Association of South East Asian Nations
(ASEAN) could be challenged. Democracy could backslide. Nations throughout the Asia Pacific
may need to rethink their security strategies and may also be pressured to take sides.
Human activity is pumping more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, trapping heat in it and
making the Earth warmer. World temperatures could rise by 0.3–4.8°C this century, leading
to a sea level rise of 0.26–0.98m.25 The consequences are potentially catastrophic and could
affect all countries through the emergence of new diseases, more extreme weather events,
food shortages, forced migration, growing anxiety especially among youth, social unrest and
even wars.25
More needs to be done to reduce emissions. Despite exponential deployment of renewable
energy, the world is not switching out of fossil fuels rapidly enough because rising living
standards and technological progress create increased demand for resources.26 Countries’ efforts
to achieve their voluntary national emissions reductions goals depend on implementation by
relatively autonomous regional governments. Bold, creative, and possibly unpopular mitigation
and adaption solutions will be required by national governments, along with working with
neighbouring countries.
Climate change will dramatically increase water and food scarcity as more volatile weather
conditions alter and interfere with crop production, livestock and water supplies.27 This severely
impacts livelihoods, especially for people in subsistence economies. Climate change has
the potential to exacerbate inequality, with potential flow-on effects of poverty, crime and
even war.28,29
To adapt to climate change, governments need to better understand what climate change means.
The also need to take a long-term pragmatic approach to socio-economic planning
(for resilience) and disaster risk management (planning for the worst). For businesses, climate
change adaptation has already given rise to new industries (renewable energy) and may continue
to do so (bio‑engineering, deep sea mineral mining). Understanding climate change will enable
governments and businesses to innovate and meet the changing demands of the global economy.
Climate change is disrupting the world. The physical, transitional and liability risks associated
with climate change pose a major threat to the stability of financial markets and the economy.
In addition, lower-socioeconomic countries and low-lying coastal nations, such as those in the
Asia Pacific, will be disproportionately affected by risks of climate change.
Climate change will become the central focus of all public policy. Economic models may shift
to a ‘circular’ or ‘doughnut’ shape, to encourage regeneration and reusing of resources. Business
models and the structure of some industries (such as the agriculture industry) will also need to
change. Reporting frameworks for businesses and governments need to be strengthened to assist
in these transitions.30 Moreover, significant investment (an estimated US$6.9 trillion per year31)
is required to mitigate and adapt to climate change while meeting development goals.
2.2 Megatrends of the Asia Pacific region
In small groups, the dialogue attendees discussed the presented megatrends and synthesised them into smaller sets of
megatrends. Based on these discussions, the APFG secretariat have identified the following megatrends impacting the Asia Pacific
region through to the year 2040.

MEGATREND SUPPORTING TRENDS

Asia, the new global • Centre of economic power predicted to be between China and India by 205032
economic centre • Global middle class expansion is concentrated in China and India33
• Increased venture capital investment from the Asia Pacific, particuarly China34
• Higher patent generation, especially by China, Japan and South Korea35
• China and India as an increasingly prominent source of skilled labour, including digital workers 36
• Emergence of mega cities and smart cities
Rise of data and • Development of new technologies, industries, jobs, services and products 4
the machines • Transformation of existing institutions and industries through emerging digital technologies 37,38
• Automation to displace or impact jobs 39
• Fourth Industrial Revolution37
• Boosting of services exports through digital platforms 40
• Mobile Internet connectivity rising throughout region41
Climate revolution • Rise of temperatures, sea levels, extreme weather events, natural disasters and biodiversity loss 42
• Increase of air, water and land pollution43-45
• Increase of regional collaboration in climate mitigation and adaptation
• Exponential increase of renewable energy adoption26
• More investment in entrepreneurship for social impact17
Political • Growing presence of new super powers including China and India32
polarisation • Rise in populism46
• Potential rise of political tensions over decreasing resources
• Decreased trade between China and US, with some production rerouted to South East Asian nations
• Larger citizen protests (e.g. Hong Kong, Jakarta)

Health dynamics • Ageing populations in advanced economies 47

in flux • Increasing anti-microbial resistance 48
• Mental health strain16
• Increases in non-communicable diseases due to Westernised diets and rapid urbanisation12,13
• Environmental trends worsen health (e.g. sea level rise increases the risk of infectious diseases) 42

Higher population • More migration from younger developing to older developed populations 49
mobility • Urbanisation50
• Potential rise of climate and conflict-related refugees28

Note: These megatrends have been synthesised by the APFG secretariat from the megatrends bought to the dialogue and discussed in
groups at the meeting, but have not been endorsed by attendees of the dialogue, their organisations or respective governments.

11
Opportunities and challenges
1. Asia, the new economic centre
The Asia Pacific is emerging as a prominent source of skilled
labour (especially China and India36), intellectual property (IP)
generation (especially China, Japan and South Korea35,51) and
investment (especially China34). The Asia Pacific region is also
becoming an attractive domestic and international market,
particularly as more people join the global middle class in
countries such as China and India.33
The main challenge will be to spread prosperity throughout
the region without large increases in inequality. Some nations
in South East Asia and the Pacific Islands may struggle to
keep up. Another challenge will be to install trusted systems
of international IP protection and controls on hacking and
cybersecurity to facilitate regional data sharing.
The sale of data and information will increase and data will
become more valuable. This will increase the need for regional
data sharing frameworks and data sovereignty and rights
issues. This is particularly the case in relation to personal data
and data rights.
2. Rise of data and the machines
The Fourth Industrial Revolution is a key focus for the Asia
Pacific region, especially within the industries of agriculture
and manufacturing. Smart city developments are also set to
support sustainability and larger populations. Meanwhile,
some developing nations have sought to foster new
technologies and entrepreneurs to create new business
models, create new industries, and ‘leapfrog’ to knowledge-
based economies.19 The rise of e-commerce and digital
platforms will also create new work opportunities, particularly
to small and medium-sized enterprises in developing nations.40
12 Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040
However new digital technologies present serious challenges
for governments. For instance, automation will disrupt millions
of jobs, creating the need to reskill people in new labour
markets.39 Cybersecurity will remain a priority as critical
infrastructure is increasingly connected to online systems and
technological dependence on the Internet continues to rise.52
One data breach can impact multiple nations sharing online
systems.
In countries with declining and ageing populations,
automation is increasingly replacing labour that can no
longer be supplied by the local job market. This is particularly
relevant for workers in aged care, health, agriculture and
mining. The lack of younger people in these countries also
challenges their innovative capacity.
3. Climate revolution
Climate change could have catastrophic effects on the region.
Coastal and island nations, including the Pacific Islands, will
be particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels and natural
disasters.42 Air pollution presents a substantial threat to many
populations – particularly those in the surging urban areas
of India and South East Asia.53 Some regional climate change
mitigation and adaptation initiatives have already begun.
For instance, the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre
aims to improve and share skills in weather and climate
prediction in South East Asia. Social entrepreneurship and
new industries are set to be an avenue for positive climate
change action.
The growth of circular and zero waste economies challenges
traditional growth economics and countries relying on
increasing consumption to fuel economic expansion will need
to adapt.
4. Political polarisation
Political polarisation and the rise of populism focused on
external conflicts as a strategy to quell internal unrest may
see new regional tensions emerge. This may present a barrier
to globalisation and standardisation. More dialogues and
collaborations are needed to reduce tensions and overcome
shared challenges of the region.
5. Health dynamics in flux
The Asia Pacific shares many health challenges with the
world, however in this region it will be particularly important
to reduce air pollution and address infection control and
antimicrobial resistance. Mental health issues are rising, as is
the cost of health in countries with rapidly ageing populations.
As more people live to over 100, there will be pressure to
increase the retirement age, and keep people in employment
for longer.
Older, highly urbanised and less active populations are likely
to be more vulnerable to infectious diseases and contagions
as well as heat stress and mosquito-borne pathogens in an
increasingly warming world.
Mental health is being affected by uncertain labour markets,
climate and incomes, and this general insecurity may lead to
increasing costs of the health and criminal justice systems.
6. Higher population mobility
As populations age in advanced economies, countries may
need to consider higher levels of immigration to maintain the
labour market—particularly in social care and health services.
A number of nations in the Asia Pacific region have young
populations with a median age of under 30, and these may
become suppliers of labour to more advanced economies.
These migrants may also assist development in their original
countries, by remitting some of their income to their
family members.49
The region (and the globe) is urbanising, and internal
migration in many countries is depleting rural areas of youth
populations and placing pressures on urban infrastructure and
air quality.
As sea levels rise there may also be large populations displaced
from low-lying coastal and tidal areas—such as large river
deltas. Rehoming millions of people from these areas may
cause international tensions over the coming decades.
13
3 Bringing it all together

These megatrends provide a useful conceptual framework

Asia, the new economic centre
for identifying and characterising future trajectories of change
to inform present-day strategic and operational choices. • Smart cities
• Asia as an investor / investment hub
Asia Pacific governments, business • Managing consumption habits of the growing
middle classes
and communities can use these • IP in trade agrements and using new technologies
megatrends to: for IP protection and controls
• Support for culture of entrepreneurship including
• Explore how these megatrends may play out in their own welfare and private equity support
operational and national contexts, and, to inform present-
day strategic and operational choices
Rise of data and the machines
• Identify issues they share with other companies,
governments and communities throughout the Asia Pacific • Agriculture 4.0

• Investigate and propose collaborations to overcome shared • Industry 4.0

challenges or take advantage of emerging opportunities. • Skills development for job transitions and entrepreneurs
• Policy for transiition and linkages with welfare and
state support
Possible areas of collaboration • Cybersecurity
As a starting point, the APFG secretariat have highlighted
some broad areas ripe for collaboration and innovation. Climate revolution
We recommend that individual companies, governments and
communities also conduct their own detailed investigations • Coordination of climate change reporting
into potential collaborations. • Investment in climate change mitigation and
social entrepreneurs

Towards a prosperous, equitable • Circular economy

• Low carbon technologies and resource use
and healthy future
Health dynamics in flux
The Asia Pacific region has taken steps to overcome our
shared challenges and build a prosperous future for all. For • Universal healthcare coverage
instance, there has been a rise of collaborations between • Integration of the elderly
governments and agencies to mitigate the impacts of climate • Regional epidemiologial databases and procedures for
change (e.g. ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre) notification and infection control
and encourage entrepreneurship for social impact.17 We
• Anti-microbial resistance
have seen these trends and collaborations build even in a
time of rising geopolitical tension. The early identification • Mental healthcare
of trends for further cross-border co-operation in the Asia • Health 4.0 with assistance from robots,
Pacific will help us build a more prosperous, equitable and better diagnostics and self-management
healthy future for all including incoming generations.
Higher population mobility

• Coordination of populations dispaced by climate change

• Supply of labour into ageing economies
• Rural-urban migration management strategies

14 Asia Pacific Megatrends 2040

Actions for the Asia Pacific Foresight Group going forward
On the second day of the dialogue, the APFG resolved to:
• Meet annually
• Seek further membership from key countries not currently represented and several
suggestions were put forward
• Ask private companies to join meetings if they had expertise in foresight techniques or
had specific access to large data sets
• Move the dialogues around the region and share hosting
The group endorsed CSIRO’s Data61 as secretariat for the APFG for the next 3–5 years
while the group is established.

15
4 References
1 Kilroy A, Francis L, Mukim M et al. 2015. Competitive cities
for jobs and growth: What, who, and how. World Bank:
Washington D.C, United States.
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17
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