TUGAS 3 TEORI PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN

NAMA : NIRMAYANTI

NIM : A021181031

Soal :

The problems that follow involve simulations that are to be done by hand. You are aware that to
obtain accurate and meaningful results, long periods must be simulated. This is usually handled
by computer. If you are able to program some of the problems using a spreadsheet, or QM for
Windows, we suggest that you try to do so. If not, the hand simulations will still help you in
understanding the simulation process.

(Problem 14.14)

Clark Property Management is responsible for the maintenance, rental, and day-to-day operation
of a large apartment complex on the east side of new or- leans. George Clark is especially
concerned about the cost projections for replacing air conditioner compressors. He would like to
simulate the number of compressor failures each year over the next 20 years. Using data from a
similar apartment building he manages in a New Orleans suburb, Clark establishes a table of
relative frequency of failures during a year as shown in the following table:

Number Of A.C. Probability

Compressor Failures (Relative Frequency)
0 0.06
1 0.13
2 0.25
3 0.28
4 0.20
5 0.07
6 0.01
He decides to simulate the 20-year period by selecting two-digit random numbers from
the third column of Table 14.4, starting with the random number 50.Conduct the simulation for
Clark. Is it common to have three or more consecutive years of operation with two or fewer
compressor failures per year?

SOLUTION

compute cumulative probability and interval of random numbers

Numbers Of Qumulative Interval Of

Probability
Failure Probability Random Numbers
0 0,06 0,06 01 to 06
 1 0,13 0,19 07 to 19
2 0,25 0,44 20 to 44
3 0,28 0,72 45 to 72
4 0,20 0,92 73 to 92
5 0,07 0,99 93 to 99
6 0,01 1,00 00

Simulated Fairules
Years Random Number
During A Year
1 50 3
2 28 2
3 68 3
4 36 2
5 90 4
6 62 3
7 27 2
8 50 3
9 18 1
10 36 2
11 61 3
12 21 2
13 36 2
14 01 0
15 14 1
16 81 4
17 87 4
18 72 4
19 80 4
20 46 3
Total 20 year failure =
52
Average 20 year failure
=52/20=2.6

Problem 14.19

Every home football game for the past eight years at Eastern State University has been sold out.
The revenues from ticket sales are significant, but the sale of food, beverages, and souvenirs has
contributed greatly to the overall profitability of the football program. One particular souvenir is
the football program for each game. The number of programs sold at each game is described by
the following probability distribution:

Historically, Eastern has never sold fewer than 2,300 programs or more than 2,700 programs at
one game. Each program costs $0.80 to produce and sells for $2.00. Any programs that are not
sold are donated to a recycling center and do not produce any revenue.

(a) Simulate the sales of programs at 10 football games. Use the last column in the random
number table (Table 14.4) and begin at the top of the column.

(b) If the university decided to print 2,500 programs for each game, what would the average
profits be for the 10 games simulated in part (a)?

(c) If the university decided to print 2,600 programs for each game, what would the average
profits be for the 10 games simulated in part (a)?

Solution

A.) Simulate the sales of programs at 10 football games. Use the last column in the random number
table (Table 1)
B.) If the University decided to print 2,500 programs for each game, what would the average
profits be for the 10

Year Random
Profits Game Sold Revenue
Number
1 $2600 2600 1 7 2300 0
2 $3000 3000 2 60 2500 0
3 $3000 3000 3 77 2500 0
4 $3000 3000 4 49 2500 0
5 $3000 3000 5 76 2500 0
6 $3000 3000 6 95 2500 0
7 $3000 3000 7 51 2500 0
8 $2800 2800 8 16 2400 0
9 $2600 2600 9 14 2300 0
10 $3000 3000 10 85 2500 0
Total = $ 2.900
If the university decides to print 2500 programs for each game, they will make an average yearly
profit of $2900.

C.) If the University decided to print 2,600 programs for each game, what would the average
profits be for the 10

Year Profits Profits

1 2,520
2 2,920
3 3,120
4 2,920
5 3,120
 6 3,120
7 2,920
8 2,720
9 2,520
10 3,120
Total $2,900

If the university decides to print 2600 programs for each game, they will make an average yearly
profit of $2900