Omega, Int. J. Mgmt Sci. Vol. 24, No. 4, pp.

443-450, 1996
~ Pergamon Copyright © 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd
Printed in Great Britain. All rights reserved
80305-0483(96)00012-6 030541483/96 $15.00 + 000

Comparing Pilot-error Accident Rates of

Male and Female Airline Pilots
KL MCFADDEN 1

N o r t h e r n Illinois University, D e K a l b , IL 60115-2854, U S A

(Received 20 April 1995; accepted after revision 21 February 1996)

This study analyzes whether differences existed in the pilot-error accident rates of male and female
United States airline pilots. Results are based on data of aviation accidents in the years 1986-92,
obtained from the Federal Aviation Administration. The study found that females employed by major
airlines had significantly higher accident rates than their male counterparts overall. However, female
airline pilots, on average, were less experienced and much younger than males. Male pilot-error
accidents were modeled using logistic regression, regressing on age, experience (total flying hours),
risk exposure (flying hours in the last 6 months), and employer (major/non-major airline). The male
model provided a good fit for female airline pilots as well as for males. After adjusting for variables
included in the model, accident rates of males and females were not significantly different. These
findings suggest that neither males nor females are a safer pilot group. Airlines should make every
effort to recruit and retain experienced females. The key challenge for managers of airline flight
operations is to learn how to manage diversity in the workplace, while maintaining the highest level
of safety. Copyright © 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Key words--air transport, accidents, public sector, performance ratios, empirical

1. INTRODUCTION 1973-94. In 1973 only 0.0270% of airline pilots

TRADITIONALLY, FEMALES have encountered bar-
riers in employment as airline cockpit crew
members. In 1973, only ten females were
classified by the Federal Aviation Adminis-
tration (FAA) as U.S. airline pilots. However,
the number of female airline pilots has
increased dramatically in the last 20 years.
The reasons for this increase probably
include allowing females to train and fly in
the military, equal opportunity employment
legislation, and changing national attitudes
toward professional females. Currently, more
than 1,900 females are employed as airline pilots
in the US. If current trends continue, females
will become an even more significant group
in the airline pilot profession. Figure 1 shows
the change in the number of female airline
pilots from 1973 to 1994, compiled from
FAA Aeromedical Certification Handbooks,
443
were female, whereas in 1994, 2.76% were
female. The scope of this study is the years
1986-92.
The physical, physiological, and psychologi-
cal differences between males and females
may affect their ability to endure the stresses
of flight [19]. This then raises questions
about males and females being equally fit
to pilot aircraft safely. Prior research has
studied the effect of age, recent flight time and
total flying hours on pilot-error accident
rates[8,12]. However, no study currently
exists in the literature that compares the flying
performance of male and female airline pilots.
Pilot-error accidents will be used in this paper
as the measure of flying performance. An
aviation accident is defined by Title 49 of
the Code of Federal Regulations as "an
occurrence associated with the operation of
an aircraft which takes place between the time
444 McFadden--Comparing Pilot-error Accident Rates
any person boards the aircraft with the intention
of flight and all such persons have disembarked,
and in which any person suffers death or serious
injury, or in which the aircraft receives
substantial damage". Approximately 75% of
aviation accidents are classified by the National
Transportation Safety Board as "pilot-error."
The remaining 25% are due to factors other
than the pilot, to include aircraft design flaws,
improper or inadequate maintenance, and the
ground crew.
As the FAA moves toward an increasingly
heightened technological environment with a
need to monitor pilot activity, it becomes
important to consider how to select, manage,
and train pilots more effectively. Results from
this research can lead to a determination of the
need for future studies that focus on gender.
This in turn can lead to an evaluation of the
current requirements imposed on male and
female airline pilots, and on the adequacy of
current training.
It is important to analyze male/female
differences that impact flying operations. It is
well established in the literature that a wide
variety of aptitudes, skills and cognitive abilities
differ among the sexes. The largest cognitive
gender differences are found in visual-spatial
abilities [10, 23]. Spatial ability involves accu-
rately visualizing an object as it rotates in
space--the practical skill necessary to operate in
the three-dimensional environment required for
flying. A wealth of research has shown that
2OO0
1600
ua
1000
S00
i,i.
164 161
~0 S 34 s9
'73 '74 '76 '76 77 '78 79 '60 '81 '82 ' U
Fig. 1. Number of US female airline pilots from 1973 to
males possess greater visual-spatial skills than
females [1, 3, 4, 9, 18, 20]. It is also widely
argued that males are superior to females in the
quantitative area [1, 13, 20, 23]. However, fe-
males may have better verbal skills than
males [1, 9, 23]. Cognitive performance and
spatial abilities are among the most important
attributes of successful aviators. These skills are
needed for proficiency in take-off and landing
procedures, traffic avoidance, and basic maneu-
vering of aircraft both in flight and on the
ground. Verbal skills are essential in order to
maintain safe air traffic control communication
and facilitate cockpit crew coordination. Over
the last decade, a growing body of evidence has
indicated that the magnitude of cognitive gender
differences are not only relatively small
[5, 6, 11, 14, 19] but also diminishing [7]. Some
argue that gender differences may be influenced
by the specific experimental task conditions and
the type of testing instructions [25]. However,
the notion that cognitive gender differences are
disappearing is in direct conflict with hundreds
of studies [10, 23].
Much of the research on gender differences
has focused on differences within the general
population. Although the general population of
females tend to have lower visual-spatial
abilities than males, females entering the flying
profession may be those that actually excel in
the very attributes necessary for successful
flying. Some research is available that explores
gender differences specifically among pilots or
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1994.
 Omega, Vol. 24, No. 4
pilot trainees [8, 15, 16, 19, 21, 22, 24, 26, 27].
Only minor differences between male and female
military pilots were found in their response to
acceleration (G) force, altitude and temperature
variations [19]. In a study of US Air Force
enlistees, males scored significantly higher on
two of four perceptual-motor skill tests [26]. To
compare cognitive and psychomotor abilities, a
battery of tests were given to a sample of male
and female pilot trainees [16, 21]. Performance
on basic maneuvers in simulated flight were also
compared. Males performed significantly better
than females (p < 0.001) on all of the psycho-
motor tests and on all of the simulated flight
maneuvers. On the cognitive tests, the males
performed slightly better, although only the
differences found in the spatial orientation test
proved statistically significant. These findings
on gender differences among pilots lead to
addressing whether gender might be a signifi-
cant factor associated with pilot flying perform-
ance.
In regard to this issue, one study analyzed
differences in accident rates among male and
female private pilots. Private pilots, unlike
airline pilots, fly for reasons other than
compensation or hire. The study reports that
from 1972-1981, females had significantly lower
accident rates than males [27]. However, one
major criticism of this work is that it employed
only rudimentary statistical analysis. Moreover,
it did not adjust for recent flying hours, a
measure of the level of exposure of pilots to risk.
The most commonly used adjustment measure
is a pilot's flying hours in the last six months
(recent flying hours), although no universally
accepted measure of exposure currently exists.
The theory behind adjusting for risk exposure is
that pilots who fly more frequently may be
exposed to a greater risk of being involved in an
aviation accident. Consequently, if males had
more current flight time, this may explain the
higher accident rate of male versus female
private pilots. The present study will explore the
need for controlling for risk exposure, employ a
more rigorous statistical methodology, and will
focus on the pilot-error accident rates of airline
pilots rather than private pilots. Consequently
this study will fill a research void.
The research regarding gender differences
cited above, as well as the prior study on private
pilots, supports the need for examining whether
gender is important in regards to pilot-error
445
accidents among airline pilots. Consequently,
the following hypothesis was developed:
HI: The pilot-error accident rates of male and
female airline pilots will differ.
1.1. Developing an additional research hypoth-
esis
In order to detect the true magnitude of the
effect of gender on pilot flying performance, this
study also controlled for age, experience, and
whether or not the pilot was employed by a
major airline [17]. Prior research on the effect of
age on pilot-error accident rates have demon-
strated that accident rates decrease with age and
eventually level off for older pilots [8, 12, 22].
Studies on the relationship between total flying
hours and pilot-error accident rates have shown
that accident rates decrease with flying experi-
ence [8, 22]. Furthermore, accident rates were
found to be significantly lower for those pilots
employed by a major versus a non-major
airline [2, 22]. A major airline is defined by the
US Department of Transportation as an air
carrier with annual operating revenues over 1
billion dollars. In the years 1986-1992 these
airlines included American, America West,
Continental, Delta, Eastern, Federal Express,
Northwest, Piedmont, Pan Am, Southwest,
TWA, United, and USAir.
In addition, while controlling for risk
exposure is essential for private pilots, where
there is a great deal of variability in flying hours
among individual pilots, it may not be
important for professional pilots. Unlike private
pilots who fly for pleasure (possibly not on a
consistent basis), airline pilots fly for a living,
and are required to maintain current flying
hours. To maximize productivity, airline com-
panies seek to keep their pilots flying as much
as possible. On the other hand, the FAA and
pilot unions have requirements on the maxi-
mum number of flying hours allowed per
month. It is assumed that these constraints
make airline pilots a fairly homogeneous group
in regards to recent flying hours. Consequently,
the level of risk exposure may be constant
among male and female airline pilots. This
study will compare recent flying hours for
various age, employer and experience categories
to ensure that the distributions are the same for
male and female airline pilots. Then, if
necessary, this study will control for risk
446 McFadden--Comparing Pilot-error Accident Rates
exposure. A subsequent hypothesis was devel-
oped:
H2: After adjusting for age, experience,
exposure, and employer, the accident rates of
male and female airline pilots will differ.
2. R E S E A R C H METHOD
Information in two databases, the Civil
Aeromedical Institute's Consolidated Airman
Information System (CAIS) and the Aviation
Standard's Accident/Incident Database (AIDS)
was used in this study. These two databases
were first merged. This consolidated database
includes accidents from 1986-1992 involving
airline pilots, as well as personal and medical
factors associated with each pilot I. All accidents
are included regardless of whether the pilot was
flying in an airliner for employment, or in a
private plane for off-duty pleasure flying.
Thereby, all pilot performance data were
captured. This author argues that pilot perform-
ance should not be based on all accidents, but
rather only on those accidents that are directly
related to pilot-error. Since this study focuses on
determining if personal characteristics of the
pilot impact accident likelihood, it does not
seem appropriate to include an accident that
was caused by factors other than the pilot. The
entire population of US airline pilots (70,164) is
included in this study. Of the 70,164 airline
pilots, 1,703 were females and 68,461 were
males. 20 females and 340 males had aviation
accidents in the years 1986-1992. None of the
females had more than one accident. However,
10 males had two accidents, and 1 male had
three accidents during the years 1986-92. Of the
360 aviation accidents, 259 were associated with
pilot-error (13 females and 246 males).
Due to the small number of female accidents,
this study fits a model for male accidents only
using logistic regression. This model was then
used to predict female accident rates and
compare these values to the actual values to
determine if the male model was consistent for
tA total o f 487 pilots were deleted in this analysis. It was
appropriate to delete these pilots because their
information consisted of data entry errors. In all cases,
total flying hours were recorded as zero. It is not possible
to be an airline pilot and yet have no experience. None
of the pilots deleted had pilot-error accidents. Moreover,
approximately equal percentages of males and females
without pilot-error accidents were deleted.
the females. The dependent variable was the
occurrence of a pilot-error accident. The
variable was dichotomous (accident/no acci-
dent) rather than continuous because very few
airline pilots had more than one pilot-error
aviation accident during the period studied. The
following independent variables were included
in the model: (1) Xage--the natural log of the
male pilot's age, (2) Xrrn--the natural log of the
male pilot's total flying hours, (3) XRrn--the
natural log of the male pilot's flying hours in the
last six months, (4) X,,~j--whether or not the
male pilot flew for a major airline, (5)
Xagerrn---the interaction of X~e and XTFH, (6)
Xog~j--the interaction of Xage and Xmoj, (7)
Xmajrrn---the interaction of X,~j and XrFn. The
log transformations were applied to the
continuous independent variables to control for
the skewness of the distribution. The model had
the following functional form:
logit(p) = flo + fllXage "~ ~2XTFH"~ ~3XRFH
"~ #4Xmaj -~- •5XageTFH "J[-#6Xagemaj J[- •7XmajTFH
where:
logit(p) = log( ~ );
p = the probability of not having a pilot-error
accident,
Xage, XTFH, XRFH, Xmaj, etc. is the value for each
specific pilot.
Any variables not found to be statistically
significant were dropped from the model. To
obtain the estimated probability of a male pilot
having a pilot-error accident the author applied
the formula:(1 - ,b) = (1/[1 + exp( - logit(/3))].
The predicted number of females without a
pilot-error accident was
E)~oi = Pt + P2 + • • • + P]703
for the 1703 female pilots. The same consider-
ation applied to predicting the number of male
pilots without (and with) pilot-error accidents.
The predicted values obtained from the model
represented the pilot-error accident rates after
adjusting for all variables included in the model.
The predicted values for females were then
compared to the actual female rates to
determine if the females were consistent with the
male fitted model. In other words, after
adjusting for the variables included in the
model, were pilot-error accident rates different
for male and female airline pilots?
 Omega, Vol. 24, No. 4 447

Table 1. Comparison of male and female airline pilots on significant attributes

Number of pilots Number of pilot-error accidents Mean age Mean T F H Mean R F H

Males
Major airline 46,724 45 43 9609 314
Non-major airline 21,737 201 38 7074 304
Females
Major airline 1034 4 35 5595 284
Non-major airline 669 9 32 4048 311

3. RESULTS rates for males, and then was used to determine

whether the females were consistent with the
The hypothesis H1 stated that overall the male fitted model. The overall model was found
pilot-error accident rates of male and female to be useful in predicting pilot-error accidents
airline pilots would differ. This hypothesis was for males (p = 0.0001). All independent vari-
supported among major airline pilots. Using a ables, with the exception of XRr, (exposure), and
chi-squared test of proportions, it was found Xmajrrtf w e r e significant after adjusting for the
that about 0.39% of female pilots employed by other variables. Further analysis of the variable
major airlines had pilot-error aviation accidents XRrnindicated that the distribution for each age,
during 1986-1992. Conversely, only about employer, and total flying hours categories were
0.10% of their male counterparts had pilot- the same for males and females. Moreover,
error accidents. This represents a statistically when fitting the logistic regression model on
significant (p = 0.004) difference. For pilots X ~ , without any other covariables, the variable
employed by non-major airlines, the proportion XRrz was not significant. This led to the
of females and males with pilot-error accidents conclusion that recent flying hours (exposure)
were 1.35 and 0.92%, respectively. However, was approximately constant for male and
this difference was not found to be statistically female airline pilots. Therefore the variable X~r,
significant (p = 0.266). was subsequently dropped from the model, as
Is it possible that gender differences in w a s X.~jrrn. The logit function was as follows:
accident likelihood found among pilots em-
ployed by major airlines would be erased if age,
logit(/3) = 78.9447 - 20.0100Xa~e
experience, and exposure were statistically
controlled for? This study found that female -- 10.1480Xrr,- lO.4853X,,oj
airline pilots were generally younger than male
+ 2.7445XagerrH + 3.4654X,ge,,a:
airline pilots. The average age of the female
pilot was 34, while the average age of the male where:
was 42. In addition, the mean total flying hours
I5 = the predicted proportion of pilots without
(TFH) for a female was generally lower than for
pilot-error accidents.
a male: 4,987 h for a female versus 8,804 h for
a male. The average recent flying hours (RFH) The results of the logistic regression model
of a female and male were 294 and 311, are presented in Table 2.
respectively. Table 1 presents a comparison of As can be seen from Table 2, age, experience,
male and female major (and non-major) airline employer, the interaction of age and experience,
pilots on significant attributes. and the interaction of age and employer were
In order to control for these factors significant in explaining pilot-error accidents of
simultaneously, a logistic regression model was male airline pilots. The coefficients of the model
developed. This model fits pilot-error accident parameter estimates indicate the direction of the

Table 2. Results of fitting the logistic regression model to the data on male airline pilots
Variable DF Parameter estimate Standard error Prob > chi-square
Intercept 1 78.9447 11.3066 0.0001 *
Age 1 - 20.0100 3.0768 0.0001"
Experience 1 - 10.1480 1.3681 0.0001"
Employer 1 - 10.4853 3.6141 0.0037*
Age * Experience I 2.7445 0.3715 0.0001"
Age * Employer 1 3.4654 1.0264 0.0007*
• Significant at or below the 0.01 level.
448 McFadden--Comparing Pilot-error Accident Rates
Table 3. Number of observed and predicted female airline pilots with and
without records
Accident
Female pilots--major airline
Observed 4.00
Predicted 2.55
Female pilots--non-major airline
bserved 9.00
Predicted 7.49
partial relationship between each independent
variable with the dependent variable. However,
since interaction terms were significant, one
could not interpret the direction of the main
effects. The coefficients of the interaction
terms were both positive. This indicated that
airline pilots had less pilot-error accidents as
experience (total flying hours) increases. Pilots
also tended to have less accidents as they got
older. Moreover, a pilot employed by a major
airline was less likely to have a pilot-error
accident than a pilot employed by a non-major
airline. Based on the findings of prior aviation
safety research, this model has high face
validity.
Hypothesis H2 stated that the adjusted
pilot-error accident rates would differ. This
hypothesis was not supported in this study.
After controlling for variables included in the
model, accident rates of male and female airline
pilots were not significantly different. A
comparison of observed and predicted numbers
confirmed that the predicted male model was
consistent for female pilots (Table 3). (The usual
chi-squared statistic
= ~, (Obs. - Pred.)2
Pred. = 0.878
on 1 degree of freedom and p < 0.4 implying no
evidence to suggest the model does not fit.)
Table 4 compares the predicted values
obtained from the logit model against the actual
pilot-error accident rates. The fact that the
predicted rates differ reflects the different age,
employer and experience structure of male and
female airline pilots. It should be noted that the
Table 4. Actual and predicted pilot-error accident rates
Type of employment Male predicted
Major airline 0.00097
Non-major airline 0.00930
No accidents Total
1030.00 1034
1031.45 1034
660.00 669
661.51 669
rate per pilot per year would be considerably
lower than the 7 yr rates presented in this study.
4. DISCUSSION
The differences between the observed and
predicted values do not provide evidence that
the pilot-error accident rates, after adjusting for
age, TFH, and employer, were different for male
and female airline pilots. However, pilot-error
accidents are rare events, and there is an
estimated excess of about 3 accidents per 1000
female pilots compared to male pilots. The
non-significant difference between male and
female pilots could be entirely due to chance.
But, if it is not due to chance then it could be
important. Therefore continued monitoring is
essential. Accident rates may affect not only the
public's confidence in the airline, but also airline
profits. Thus, it makes good economic sense for
airlines to take steps designed to counter any
possible gender affects. The findings hold
several implications for the managers of airline
flight operations.
First, as a direct consequence of the statistical
results of this study, airlines should make every
effort to recruit and retain experienced female
aviators. Once pilots accumulate additional
flying hours and training within the airline
business, their pilot-error accident rates de-
crease markedly. Female airline pilots generally
do not encounter a "glass ceiling" for
promotional opportunities. Airline pilot unions
help ensure that airlines continue to base
promotional decisions solely on seniority within
the airline company. This seniority system puts
the most experienced airline pilot in the
company in command of the aircraft, whether
male or female. It appears that a seniority-based
Male actual Female predicted Female actual
0.00096 0.00246 0.00390
0.00925 0.01120 0.01350
 Omega, Vol. 24, No. 4
system not only enhances safety within the
airline industry, but eventually will promote
diversity in the upper command positions.
In addition, there are human resource
management possibilities for mitigating gender
effects. For example, it may be quite advan-
tageous for airlines to establish formal mentor-
ing and training programs that use experienced
females as role models/mentors for inexperi-
enced female airline pilots. It is desirable that
formal programs be established since it is
doubtful that informal relationships will de-
velop due to the insufficient number of
experienced female role models. Providing
young female aviators with direct access to the
limited number of seasoned female pilots is
expected to facilitate the adjustment of these
females into the airline pilot profession.
More generally, it is important that airlines
continue to foster a supportive atmosphere for
female pilots, and make every effort to reduce
any level of conflict there may be between the
sexes. Airlines might incorporate gender sensi-
tivity training in the cockpit resource manage-
ment (CRM) seminars for pilots currently in
existence at most major airlines.
The airline industry is in a transitional phase
in terms of fully integrating females into the
field. This study found that on average, age and
total flying hours of female airline pilots were
generally less than that of male airline pilots.
This helps to explain the differences in the
pilot-error accident rates of male and female
airline pilots. The discrepancies in age and
experience level are due to the fact that females
have only recently entered the airline pilot
profession in any significant number. However,
affirmative action programs should not be
designed to lower the flying standards for
females in order to increase the number of
female airline pilots. The intent of this paper is
not to argue the pros and cons of affirmative
action, but to caution that the highest safety
standards must be maintained in the airline
industry. As the airline industry strives to treat
male and female airline pilots with equality, it is
expected that gender differences in pilot
performance could disappear.
The results of this study have identified many
new issues for future research. An important
contribution of this paper was to establish
empirically that accident rates of male and
female airline pilots are not significantly
449
different, after adjusting for important vari-
ables. However, since aviation accidents are
such rare events, it may be quite advantageous
to analyze other measures of flying perform-
ance, such as aviation incidents, pilot devi-
ations, and performance on simulator
check-rides. These performance indicators oc-
cur with much greater frequency than accidents
and may provide higher statistical power. In
addition, future studies could also explore the
reasons for gender differences among pilots.
Prior research on pilots or pilot trainees have
demonstrated that males perform significantly
better in technical, quantitative, and verbal
knowledge factors [26] as well as on tests of
cognitive and perceptual-motor skills [17, 21].
Males and females may also differ in their
background regarding the way they obtain their
initial flying hours. Since females have pre-
viously been excluded from military training,
they generally have accumulated flying hours
through the civilian ranks. Conversely, the
majority of males have acquired initial training
through the military. Future studies should
focus on comparing the flying performance of
those pilots trained in the military versus those
trained through the civilian ranks. While
additional research is needed, the results of this
study are a good first step toward measuring
performance of male and female airline pilots.
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ADDRESS FOR CORRESPONDENCE: Professor Kathleen L
McFadden, Department of Operations Management &
Information Systems, Northern Illinois University,
DeKalb, IL 60115-2854, USA.