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Transfusion and Apheresis Science 51 (2014) 126–131

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Transfusion and Apheresis Science


j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w. e l s e v i e r. c o m / l o c a t e / t r a n s c i

Review

Analytical model for calculating indeterminate results interval


of screening tests, the effect on seroconversion window
period: A brief evaluation of the impact of uncertain results on
the blood establishment budget
Paulo Pereira a,*, James O. Westgard b, Pedro Encarnação c, Jerard Seghatchian d
a
Department of Quality Assurance, Portuguese Institute of Blood and Transplant, Avenida Miguel Bombarda 6, 1000-208 Lisboa, Portugal
b Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, University of Wisconsin Medical School, Madison, WI, USA
c
Católica Lisbon School of Business and Economics Research Unit, Catholic University of Portugal, Lisbon, Portugal
d
International Consultancy In Blood Components Quality/Safety Improvement and DDR Strategy, London, UK

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords:
The evaluation of measurement uncertainty is not required by the European Union regu-
Bias
lation for blood establishments’ laboratory tests. However, it is required for tests accredited
Delta-value
Precision
by ISO 15189. Also, the forthcoming ISO 9001 edition requires “risk based thinking” with
Seroconversion window period risk described as “the effect of uncertainty on an expected result”. ISO recommends GUM
Total analytical error models for determination of measurement uncertainty, but their application is not intend-
ed for ordinal value measurements, such as what happens with screening test binary results.
This article reviews, discusses and proposes concepts intended for measurement uncer-
tainty of screening test results. The precision model focuses on cutoff level allowing the
evaluation of the indeterminate interval using analytical sources of variance. The interval
is considered in the estimation of the seroconversion window period. The delta-value of
patients and healthy subjects’ samples allows ranking two tests according to the proba-
bility of the two classes of indeterminate results: chance of false negative results and chance
of false positive results (waste on budget).
© 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contents

1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 127


2. Methods and materials .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 127
2.1. The indeterminate interval concept and the potential impact of uncertain results in blood establishment
clinical decision .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 127
2.2. Indeterminate interval measurement using analytical bias and precision ...................................................................................... 128
2.3. Impact of indeterminate interval on seroconversion window period ............................................................................................... 129
2.4. The evaluation of the impact of uncertain results on the blood establishment budget ............................................................. 129
3. Results and discussion ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 129
4. Conclusions .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 130
Appendix: Supplementary material ............................................................................................................................................................................ 131
References ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 131

* Corresponding author. Department of Quality Assurance, Portuguese Institute of Blood and Transplant, Avenida Miguel Bombarda 6, 1000-208 Lisboa,
Portugal. Tel.: +351 210063047; fax: +351 210063070.
E-mail address: paulo.pereira@ipst.min-saude.pt (P. Pereira).

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.transci.2014.10.004
1473-0502/© 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
P. Pereira et al./Transfusion and Apheresis Science 51 (2014) 126–131 127

1. Introduction vocabulary for the immunoassays specific statistical pro-


cedures. Fuentes-Arderiu [17] and Dybkaer [18] have
ISO 15189 guideline (2012) requires the estimation of proposed terminologies suitable for ordinal tests, but they
measurement uncertainty (MU) as well as the specifica- are not used in common practice. In this paper, the termi-
tion of the performance requirements (quality goal) for MU nology particular to the presented models is adopted.
and the regular review of the estimated MU [1]. MU deter- This article reviews, discusses and proposes a random
mination is optional on blood establishment laboratories and systematic error concept focused on screening immu-
field, since it is not mandatory by the European Union di- noassays cutoff, as well as its impact on seroconversion
rectives [2–5] or by US Clinical Laboratory Improvement window period and the role of false positive results in the
Amendments (CLIA) requirements integrated in the Amer- waste of the blood establishment budget.
ican Association of Blood accreditation program [6]. ISO 9001 The data calculations for these models have been per-
has been widely applied in European blood establish- formed using standard spreadsheet software (Microsoft®
ments [7] and the introduction of “risk based thinking” on Excel® 2013). The spreadsheets validation was done ac-
its forthcoming edition could be supported in blood estab- cording to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) The
lishment laboratories by determining MU since it defines Office of Regulatory Affairs (ORA) Laboratory Manual prin-
risk as “the effect of uncertainty” (entry 3.09 of [8]). ciples [19]. The spreadsheets supporting the results of this
ISO recommends determination of MU by following the article are included as supplementary material. They were
Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement intended to perform modeling for this paper to allow easy
(GUM) principles [9]. Dimech et al. successfully applied a handling and automation of calculation, but they are not
GUM modeling approach [10] and an interlaboratory em- suited for the use in laboratory field.
pirical approach [11] to a screening test. However, the GUM
concept is focused on numerical quantity values (entry 1.20 2. Methods and materials
of [12]), rather than ordinal quantity (entry 1.26 of [12]) tests
providing binary results (i.e., positive/negative). For an in 2.1. The indeterminate interval concept and the potential
depth discussion of GUM measurement uncertainty ap- impact of uncertain results in blood establishment clinical
proach, further information can be found elsewhere [9]. decision
Ordinal quantity is defined in the International Vocabu-
lary of Metrology (VIM) as the “quantity, defined by a The indeterminate (or uncertainty) interval (or “gray-
conventional measurement procedure, for which a total or- zone”) term is used in this article to describe the uncertainty
dering relation can be established, according to magnitude, interval around the cutoff point where the binary result has
with other quantities of the same kind, but for which no a significant probability to be untrue due to analytical error.
algebraic operations among those quantities exist”. Hypothetically (analytical) MU should be evaluated for a
Pulido et al. proposed for general chemistry the use of sample with cutoff concentration; in practice the cutoff con-
statistical intervals for the estimation of uncertainty of binary centration is affected by between-batch, within-batch,
results to evaluate compliance with supervisory limits [13] metrological conditions, etc. So, the cutoff measured in a
and the performance curve to determine the cutoff con- screening immunoassay has an associated analytical im-
centration with an uncertainty interval [14]. Several authors precision, where there is always an indeterminate interval
proposed additional alternative (to GUM) concepts for di- at this decision point, which means that results inside (i.e.,
agnostic sensitivity and specificity, such as the Bayesian positive/negative or above/below point, respectively) have
theorem on conditional probability [13–16]. a statistically significant probability of being untrue (false
When a sample with concentration equal to cutoff is tested result) [20]. CLSI EP12-A2 guideline describes an indeter-
for viral agents, theoretically the chances of yielding a pos- minate interval model using the term “C5-C95 interval”
itive or a negative result are 50/50. Thus, according to the defined as “the range of analyte concentrations around the
normal distribution principles there is a 50% chance of getting cutoff such that observed results at concentrations outside
a false result (false negative, if the sample is contaminated, this interval are consistently negative (concentrations < C5)
false positive if it is uninfected). During seroconversion or consistently positive (concentrations > C95)”. It states that
window period (WP) there is a moment when this phe- “observed results at concentrations inside this interval are
nomena occurs, representing a high chance of untrue result. not consistent due to imprecision” (entry 5.3 of [20]). C5 rep-
The effect of uncertainty on the clinical decision value or resents the concentration sample with up to 5% false positive
cutoff (i.e., indeterminate interval due to analytical error) results, and C95 represents the concentration sample with
constrains the statistical significance of diagnostic results; more than 95% true positive results. This concept was de-
consequently its determination is relevant to the screening signed for In Vitro Diagnostic medical device manufacturers
test risk evaluation in blood establishments. with tests under research and development (R&D). Other
Therefore, the model for MU determination should be definitions of indeterminate interval include the interval
chosen according to the measurement purpose, for example, where the results cannot be assured to be true positive or
GUM modular models in reagents manufacturer’s labora- true negative, or the interval where the binary results are
tories, GUM empirical, probability and other (alternative to uncertain [21–24] due to imprecision (entry 2.15 of [12])
GUM) models in medical laboratories. and bias (entry 2.17 of [12]). The indeterminate interval can
Although the international metrology organizations rec- be taken to be the MU at the cutoff concentration. It is
ommend VIM terminology, it is seldom used for screening usually modeled by a confidence interval centered at the
immunoassays since it does not contain the appropriate cutoff, whose width is proportional to the MU [25].
128 P. Pereira et al./Transfusion and Apheresis Science 51 (2014) 126–131

Higher uncertainties lead to wider confidence intervals computed leading to an estimation of (total) precision. Refer
which lead to a higher risk in the binary decision taken (e.g., to CLSI EP5-A2 document for detailed calculations [29]. Using
a blood establishment virology screening immunoassay has VIM terminology, the estimated precision result is synon-
a higher probability (higher risk) of yielding a false nega- ymous of “combined standard measurement uncertainty”
tive result for higher MU). u and the product of its result by a factor k larger than the
To recognize the impact of a clinical decision based on number one estimates the “expanded uncertainty”, k·u, U
the laboratory outcomes, the intended use of the test result [9]. In general metrology, when the conditions of the Central
should be taken into consideration. On a blood establish- Limit Theorem are met, a value for the coverage factor is
ment virology field it is the assurance of post-transfusion taken from a one or two-tailed t-Student distribution with
safety [26]. Therefore, false positive results (α-errors) are a effective degrees of freedom veff for veff < 5 (please refer to
minor concern, since they do not represent post-transfusion [30] for the computation of veff). When veff > 5, k is assumed
risk representing increase of cost per reported result. On the to be 2, corresponding roughly to the 95% confidence in-
other side, false negative results (β-errors) represent a major terval. In laboratories statistics is also used k = 1.65 for a one-
component of post-transfusion residual risk. Test results are sided estimate.
typically expressed as the ratio between the sample’s value On screening immunoassays, within-laboratory preci-
and the cutoff value (thus yielding one for a sample with sion could be intended to access immunoassay quality and
cutoff concentration) [27]. to set its quality goal. The “quality” is considered the inde-
Considering the purpose of screening test results, if u is terminate interval expressed by within-laboratory precision
the (combined standard) measurement uncertainty syn- and the “quality goal” the allowable indeterminate inter-
onymous of the indeterminate interval width, a blood val expressed by the allowable precision (e.g., cutoff ± 30%)
establishment should classify as positive, negative or inde- [31]. The goal should be defined by laboratories taking into
terminate according to: positive if greater or equal to one, consideration the test results’ clinical decision.
negative if lower than 1-u, and indeterminate if setting in When an estimate of bias is available, the total analyt-
the interval [1 − u, 1] [20]. Samples with indeterminate ical error (TAE) concept could be used. It is an extension to
results should be tested on complementary tests (e.g., con- the precision featuring both types of error in a single result.
firmatory tests, nucleic acid techniques) and/or a subsequent ISO claims “the deviation from the true value is composed
sample should be collected and tested as a result of of random and systematic errors. The two kinds of errors,
seroconversion WP. assumed to be always distinguishable, have to be treated
differently. No rule can be derived on how they combine to
2.2. Indeterminate interval measurement using analytical form the total error of any given measurement result, usually
bias and precision taken as the estimate.” Despite ISO’s statement, TAE is cur-
rently used in reagents’ manufacturer and also in the medical
Analytical random and systematic error compo- laboratory field [32].
nents at the cutoff concentration result are major causes Westgard et al. (1974) introduced the TAE concept to clin-
of lack of stability of measurement that influence the ical chemistry [33], defining it as “the net or combined effect
trueness of binary results. The described MU models are of random and systematic errors” [34]. Another definition
focused on the intended use of blood establishment test comes from CLSI EP21-A (2003) which defines TAE as the
results. “result of a measurement minus a true value of the
The analytical random error could be estimated through measurand” containing random and systematic effects (entry
precision in reproducibility condition of measurement 3 of [35]). The TAE measurement is performed combining
defined in VIM as the “condition of measurement, out of a the estimate of bias from a screening immunoassay com-
set of conditions that includes different locations, opera- parison of methods study and the estimate of precision from
tors, measuring systems, and replicate measurements on the a replication study, such as that occurs in the EP5-A2 model.
same or similar objects” (entry 2.24 of [12]). CLSI EP5-A2 It can be computed through the simplified formula [36]
(2004) describes an evaluation protocol for the precision of TAE = biastotal + k·sd where biastotal is the sum of bias com-
quantitative tests also referred as within-laboratory repro- ponents and sd is the measurement standard deviation under
ducibility, within-device precision or total precision. It can reproducibility conditions of measurement (precision) (entry
also be used to evaluate the precision of an ordinal quan- 2.25 of [12]). Thus, it expresses the combined effect of all
tity test since the ordinal scale of measurement (including the error components arising within the measurement pro-
binary result) is numerical. According to GUM principles, cedure. CLSI EP21-A presents another estimation approach
it is classified as an intralaboratory empirical model [28]. requiring a minimum of 120 patient samples intended for
It requires that data to be collected for a sample with con- reagents’ manufacturers [37].
centration equal to cutoff concentration during a series of The types of bias in immunoassays are classified as (a)
20 days twice in 2 daily runs to assure focusing on clinical the proportional bias modeled by biasp = (s + (b·s))/(co + (b·co))
decision point. This replication experiment fulfills the US where b is the constant slope with y intercept equal to zero,
Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ guidance for CLIA e.g., proportional bias effect on samples and calibrators used
recommending a minimum of 20 control samples to esti- for cutoff determination (note: bias is zero since (s + (b·s))/
mate precision. (co + (b·co)) = (1 + b)/(1 + b)·s/co = s/co; and (b) the fixed bias
Precision under repeatability conditions r (within-run modeled by biasf = (s + (a + b·s))/(co + (a + b·co)) where b is
precision) (entry 2.20 of [12]) and precision under repro- the constant slope and a is the y intercept where (a + b·s)/
ducibility conditions R (within-laboratory precision) are (a + b·co) ≠ 0, e.g., different bias effect on sample and
P. Pereira et al./Transfusion and Apheresis Science 51 (2014) 126–131 129

calibrators such as sample bias due to nonconforming sample “as the distance of the mean of the distribution from the
centrifuge and cutoff bias due to nonconforming reagent cutoff in standard deviation units” [36]. The test with the
storage during transport from manufacturer to laboratory least chance of producing indeterminate results should be
[38]. The statistical process for estimating the relation- preferred, since this choice reduces the chance of lack of
ships among fixed bias variables is a very complex task to sustainability of blood components production, i.e., de-
the laboratory field. The fixed bias components are mea- creases the probability of blood establishment budget waste.
surable mainly in R&D of reagents on the manufacturer level. Consider a sample of patients and another of healthy sub-
To exemplify the model, a single screening anti-hepatitis jects. Let sdd and xd be the standard deviation and the mean
C virus (HCV) immunoassay was used to provide a common of log10(s/co), i.e., of the test results for the patients ex-
base for discussion of results (chemiluminescence method). pressed as the logarithm to base 10 of the ratio s/co. sdnd
Test results are expressed by the ratio of the sample’s result and xnd refer to the same quantities for the healthy sub-
and the cutoff result s/co using the mathematical model jects sample. The delta measurements are given by delta-
[14] snc ( xNCnc + (0.55 ⋅ xPCnc )), where snc is the sample net plus δ + = xd (log10 s co) sdd (log10 s co) where result is ≥1
counts expressed by the number of photons in the sample, and delta-minus δ − = xnd (log10 s co) sdnd (log10 s co) where
xNCnc is the negative calibrator net counts expressed by the the output is <1. The test from a series with delta-plus closest
average result from the two lowest replicates out of three, to one has the highest probability of indeterminate results.
and xPCnc is the positive calibrator net counts expressed by On the other hand, the test from a series with delta-minus
the average result from the two highest replicates out of three closest to one has also the highest probability of indeter-
[39]. The method is not metrologically traceable. For an in minate results. The performance goal is to select the test
depth discussion of traceability in medical laboratories, with the lowest chance to generate results close to the cutoff
further information can be found elsewhere [40]. value. The most uncertain test from a series of tests using
The approaches and results will be discussed in “results the same data for evaluation will have the highest chance
and discussion” section. to produce indeterminate results. For an in depth discus-
sion of delta-value in blood establishments, further
2.3. Impact of indeterminate interval on seroconversion information can be found elsewhere [36].
window period
3. Results and discussion
According to [41], “the window period for a test de-
signed to detect a specific disease (particularly an infectious Despite the TAE should be the first choice when com-
disease) is the time between first infection and when the pared to the within-laboratory precision, its model is
test can reliably detect that infection”. Typically, the WP is equivalent to the precision model, since the fixed bias is
described as the number of days between the day of infec- unknown. For its determination, the cutoff standard devi-
tion and the first positive result [42]. The term is also ation sdco was computed from the ratio between the cutoff
synonymous of “seroconversion sensitivity” [43]. For the photons count obtained in a series of 17 runs yielding from
screening immunoassays used in blood establishment vi- May 5 to July 2, 2011 and the average from 370 cutoff
rology laboratories, the seroconversion WP is the expression photons count from January 3, 2010 to September 11, 2011
of the time taken for seroconversion. That is the reason for (i.e., closest to true cutoff) where sdco = 0.07. The within-
the examination of blood donors before the donation as part laboratory reproducibility standard-deviation sdRw was
of minimum eligibility criterion order to suspend or to determined from a human plasma sample ID 957 diluted
exclude candidates with high risk to be on seroconversion 1:3 for near cutoff concentration (average result equal to
period [2,44]. 0.94) from April 3 to April 22, 2011 (20 runs) yielding
The performance requirement should be the highest clas- sdRw = 0.030. The random error component was estimated
sification in tests’ rank for seroconversion, commonly by combining the variances: sd = (sdco2 + sdRw2)½ = 0.08. The
available from commercial panels’ inserts. A minimum 95.5% confidence interval is [0.84, 1]. The quality goals for
seroconversion WP is also related to a test generation. The- indeterminate interval must be defined by each laborato-
oretically, the WP could consider the day of the first ry since they are unavailable in published tables [32]. The
indeterminate result sample instead of the day of the first claimed quality goal was [0.70, 1], same as cutoff ± 30%. The
positive result sample, since the blood donations of inde- measurement uncertainty is accepted, since the 95% con-
terminate and positive results samples donors shall be fidence interval is within the goal. The estimation can be
rejected according to a screening algorithm. Depending on periodically reviewed to verify compliance such as when it
the screening panel, this may result in a shorter interval or is considered another claimed indeterminate interval or
not. For an in depth discussion of seroconversion WP, further when critical test error components changed.
information can be found elsewhere [26]. It was tested an HCV seroconversion panel to measure
the WP using not only the cutoff but also the validated al-
2.4. The evaluation of the impact of uncertain results on the lowable indeterminate level of 30%. A period of 97 days was
blood establishment budget necessary until the test was able to reliably detect the in-
fection of panel patient (see Fig. 1). The panel insert did not
The delta-value is appropriate to compare test methods feature the test under evaluation but 11 other tests featur-
and rank them according to their capabilities to generate ing nine with first positive results from the 97 th day,
numerical results close to the cutoff, i.e., with a significant one from the 104th day, and another from the 131st day.
probability to be on the indeterminate interval. It is defined Considering the cutoff or the indeterminate interval, the
130 P. Pereira et al./Transfusion and Apheresis Science 51 (2014) 126–131

Fig. 1. Window period in a screening immunoassay for the PHV901 panel (SeraCare Life Sciences, Inc., Massachusetts) featuring 11 genotype 1a samples
from a blood or plasmapheresis donor who seroconverted over the course of their donation history.

patient’s seroconversion panel tested in the assay under eval- Figure 2 shows a scheme of the presented models at-
uation, obtained a window period rated at the shorter period tending their role in the post-transfusion safety and blood
level. The seroconversion WP aims at determining the most establishment budget.
critical measurable bias (biological bias) component in blood
establishment virology immunoassays, since it represents 4. Conclusions
the major component of the risk of post-transfusion infec-
tion [26]. The precision model is important to evaluate the screen-
The definition of the seroconversion WP makes its de- ing immunoassays indeterminate interval due to analytical
termination dependent of the seroconversion period from error components satisfying ISO 15189 and GUM prin-
a single patient when only a panel is tested. The days ciples. The total analytical error could be alternative;
between first bleed and the first indeterminate result cannot however, it is impracticable in screening immunoassays in
be inferred to the patients’ population. Window period is blood establishments. Since the binary result is influ-
a property of a test for a patient and its revision should only enced by the indeterminate interval, a tripartite reporting
happen when another patient panel with shorter period is should be used featuring not only positive and negative
available. results but also indeterminate results. The window period
The delta-value example used a healthy subject popu- should be measured using also the indeterminate interval,
lation of 257 blood donors with negative results for anti- since it allows the identification of a most accurate period
HCV, ALT, and HCV RNA in the latest three blood donations without increasing risk to post-transfusion safety. Even when
and a patient population containing 17 patients with con- analytical bias is measurable, the WP traduces a major com-
firmed HCV infection from a serum bank of a Portuguese ponent of biological bias and it is recommended to be
blood establishment with positive tests results of immu- reported with precision/measurement uncertainty. The delta-
noassay, recombinant immunoblot, and polymerase chain value is a useful model not only to measure the chance of
reaction, and twelve samples from commercial panels (6 false negative results but also to measure the chance of
samples from a qualification panel QHV711, and 6 samples waste in blood establishment budget due to false positive
from a genotype performance panel PHV350). The samples results.
were measured by the same test, which is classified in this
model as “test 1”, and by another screening test for anti-
HCV designated as “test 2”. For the “test 1” δ+cand = 3.831 and
for the “test 2” δ+comp = 2.792. From the considerations above,
“test 1” has a lower probability of generating indetermi-
nate results from the infected candidates’ sample, i.e., higher
chance of false negative results. For the “test 1” δ−cand = 9.441
and for the “test 2” δ−comp = 9.404. Despite “test 1” having
a somewhat lower probability of generating indetermi-
nate results from the healthy subject sample, i.e., higher
chance of false positives results, these results do not show
a statistically significant difference. Equating false positive
results to budget waste, the tests are classified in the same
rank. The measurement should be reviewed as stated for Fig. 2. Models for assuring post-transfusion safety, and a model for the
the precision model. management of waste in budget due to false positive results.
P. Pereira et al./Transfusion and Apheresis Science 51 (2014) 126–131 131

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