10.

B=1334/[59054-(828)^2/12]

Bhat=.694

ybar=864/12=72

xbar=828/12=69

acap=72-(.694)*69

=24.114

Therefore the fitted regression line is

24.114+.694*x

(ii) syy=63,362-(864)^2/12=1154

Scap^2=(1154-(1334)^2/1922)/10
Scap^2=22.811
(b) 10*Scap^2/S2~chi squared 10 dof
Therefore the CI is
[(10*22.811)/18.31][(10*22.811)/3.94]
(12.45,57.89)
(iii)
Here h0=0 h1>0
(.694-0)/{sqrt([22.811]/sxx)}=6.370
This is greater than our critical pt 1.872 (t 10 dof and 5%) so h0 is rejected that is
there is positive correlation coefficient bw two variablers
(iv)
Uhat=24.114+.694*57
Uhat=63.672
Variance of mean score =(1/12+(57-69)^2/1922)*scap^2
=3.6099
Therefore the CI is
63.672+-2.228*sqrt(3.6099)
(59.438,67.905)
(v) h0=.75
H1is not equal to .75
(tanh^-1r-tanh^-1p)/sqrt(1/9)
R=1334/sqrt(1922×1154)
=.89573

1.45018 − 0.9729551/sqrt(1/9)=1.431435

As this is less than 1.96 we conclude that correlation bw two variables is .75 i.e accept h0

(vi)=r^2=(.89573)^2=.802329

i.e 80% of total variance is explained by the model and the rest 20% is not i.e the model fits good.

1.

(i) l=1/15

P(x>20)=e^-1/15*20=.26359

(ii) P(x>20)|P(x>15)

By memoryless property we have to find P(x>5)

e^-5/15=.71653

2.

(i) bias(tcap)=E(tcap)-t

(ii) mse(tcap)=v(tcap)+bias^2(tcap)=E([tcap-t])]^2

(iii) derivation

3.

X=82

N=200

P=x/n=.41

Therefore the confidence interval is

.41+-1.96*sqrt(.41/200)

( .32125 ,.4987)

4.

Sample space=36 outcomes

[(1,1),(1,2)…….(6,6)]

n(c)=(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6),(2,1),(3,1),(4,1),(5,1),(6,1)

p(c)=n(c)/sample space

11/36

(ii) n(a)=(1,2)(2,1)
P(a|c)=(2/36)/(11/36)=2/11

(iii) n(b) =(1,6),(6,1),(2,5),(5,2),(3,4),(4,3)

P(b|c)= (2/36)/(11/36)=2/11

(iv) p(a)=not p(a|c) hence not independent

(v) p(b)=not p(b|c) hence not independent

5.

(xbar=m)/[s/sqrt(n)]~N(0,1)

As n tends to inf

(ii) we know that binomial is generalisation of Bernoulli trial .E(x)=p and V(x)=p*q

B=sum(xi) where i is from 1 to n

E(B)=np

V(B)=npq

By clt

[Sum(xi)-nm]/sqrt(n*s^2)~N(0,1)

Therefore [B-np]/sqrt(npq)~N(0,1)

(iii) prob that first person wins is .57

Therefore by applying normal approximation as n is large the CI is

.57+-1.96*sqrt{(.57*.43)/n}

(.4729,.667)

6.

(i) for random variables x and y to be independent the joint prob should be equal to marginal pdfs of
x and y i.e P(X=x,Y=y)=P(x)*P(y) and that too in range of both variables

(ii) f(x)= Integral over x to 1 (f’(x))

Integral over x to 1 (4xy^2)

4x(1-x^2)

f(y)= Integral over 0 to 1 (f’(y))

Integral over 0 to 1 (4x^2*y)

Putting the ul and ll of y and then deducting ul-ll
We get 4y^3
(b)
4x(1-x^2)*(4y^3) is not equal to 8xy
So they are not independent
(iii) Integral over 0 to y (f’(x)) (8xy)/4y^3)

7.(i) xbar~N(3,4/9)
Ybar~N(4,10/18)
1-P[z<(4-3)/sqrt(4/9)]=1-.93319=.068
(ii) ybar-xbar~N(1,10/18+4/9)
Ybar-xbar<0
P{z<(0-1)/sqrt(10/18+4/9)}=P(z<-1)=1-.84134=.15866
(iii) 2s^2x~chi squared with 8 dof
P(chi squared with 8 dof)>8
1- P(chi squared with 8 dof)<8=.4335

(iv)
P(s2x/s2y)>1
P(F8,17>2.5)
At 5%
(v) 5 %

8
(i) (a) exponential family pdf is
exp{[(y(t)-b(t))/a(p))]+c(y,p)}
poisson pdf=(m^y*e^-m)/y!

taking likelihood and writing all terms w.r.t e^

we get
exp(ylogm-m-logy!)
comparing it with the exp family pdf we get
t=logm
b(t)=m
a(p)=1
c(y,p)-logy!
(ii) E(y) =b’(t)=e^t
V(y)=b’’(t)*a(p)=e^t*1=e^t
(iii) b>2*se(b)
0.42408 > 2 x 0.09352 = 0.18704
As this is 2 sided tail test and .187 is less than the critical pt 1.96 so we conclude
that tree density is significant in the model
(iv) the link func of poisson dist is g(m)=log(m)
and eta is func of u
i.e
eta=log(m)
exp(eta)=m
 exp(a+bt)=m
putting values we get 34.6 bears

9.(i) nCx*p^x*(1-p)^n-x
Taking log likelihood and diff w.r.t to p we get
=x/p-{(n-x)/1-p}
By lcm

𝑥(1−𝑝)−(𝑛−𝑥)p=o
P=xcap/n
(ii) fpost(l)=k*fprior(l)*likelihood(x|l)
={p^a-1*(1-p)^b-1}*{p^x(1-p)n-x}
=p^x+a-1*(1-p)^ 999-x+b
(iii) the post dist is beta with parameters a-1 and n-x+b
(iv) prior and post are of the same type… this property is known as conjugate prior.
i.e beta is conjugate prior of binomial dist

(v)
Pcap=.005
(vi)