Professional Documents
Culture Documents
September 8, 2011
Christer Johnson
IBM Global Business Services, Partner
Advanced Analytics Services Leader, N. America
Shaun Barry
IBM Global Business Services, Associate Partner
Global Leader for Fraud Management Solutions
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IBM Advanced Analytics Software
Analytics to Outcomes:
Leveraging Predictive and Prescriptive Analytics
September 8, 2011
Christer Johnson
IBM Global Business Services, Partner
Advanced Analytics Services Leader, N. America
Shaun Barry
IBM Global Business Services, Associate Partner
Global Leader for Fraud Management Solutions
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IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
What
happened? What could
happen if?
Simulation
Captured How can we
How many,
achieve the best
how often,
outcome?
Detected where?
What Optimization
trends will
Inferred What continue?
exactly is Forecasting
the
problem?
Use Structured Data & Simplified to be How can we
Unstructured Data consumable and What will
achieve the best
happen
• Numeric accessible to everyone, What
next if?
outcome and
optimized for their actions are address variability?
• Text Predictive
needed? Stochastic
specific purpose, at the Modelling
Optimization
• Image
point of impact, to
• Audio deliver better decisions Descriptive Predictive Prescriptive
• Video and actions through: Analytics Analytics Analytics
5
IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
Data Infrastructure
Productivity Analytics Simplification /
Take-out cost and BAO Foundation
improve efficiency
Citizen Service
Government Analytics
Responsiveness
Better service Human Capital
citizens needs Analytics
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IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
Data Infrastructure
Productivity Analytics Simplification /
Take-out cost and BAO Foundation
improve efficiency
Citizen Service
Government Analytics
Responsiveness
Better service Human Capital
citizens needs Analytics
7
IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
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IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
A Large US Bank
Offer Offer
Mass Market | Mass Affluent | Small Business
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9
IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
A Large US Bank
& BC
“They seem to
Optimization Brilliant! know what I
CARD need and when I
Agent, IVR need it.”
10
10
IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
Data Infrastructure
Productivity Analytics Simplification /
Take-out cost and BAO Foundation
improve efficiency
Citizen Service
Government Analytics
Responsiveness
Better service Human Capital
citizens needs Analytics
11
IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
Industry Education
Challenge Education delivery has traditionally been „brick and mortar‟ classrooms and
instruction by textbook. Typically student challenges are identified after they
occur. GCPS‟ vision is to identify student challenges and opportunities for
improvement before they occur – applying the appropriate interventions or
enrichment to enhance learning for each student.
Solution For a pilot student population, IBM developed a model to identify factors that
potentially predict a student‟s success in Algebra. These predictors were used to
determine „at-risk‟ student groups, and thus assist educators in determining the
remediation and/or instructional guidance for different student populations.
Benefits The results of the analytical model convinced GCPS to expand the scope to
ensure integration of predictive analytics into the future teaching and learning
model for the school system. In addition, with the integration of appropriate
instructional content, GCPS has embarked on a path toward differentiated and
focused student instruction based on student needs – potentially before the
needs are identified. The goal is to enhance student learning and ultimately
improve student achievement.
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IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
Industry Government
Challenge The current business process and technology used to fight fraud,
waste, and abuse in Medicaid is ineffective – producing only around
$25 million annually in recoupment letters. This leakage, combined
with a significant state budget deficit, motivated the state to
aggressively pursue cost takeout projects.
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IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
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IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
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IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
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IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
Industry Healthcare
Challenge With the goal to better manage medical cost, Aetna wanted to enhance
its capability to identify and diagnose changes or patterns in cost
trends in a more automated and timely basis.
Solution For a pilot set of data, IBM built a multiplicative regression model that
can simultaneously evaluate the impact that all possible factors have
on changes to overall medical costs.
Used optimization to determine the best fit regression model.
Benefits While only in pilot, the results of the model were enough to convince
Aetna to expand the scope of the model and pursue a path towards
implementing the model as part of their ongoing cost trending analysis
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IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
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IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
Factor 1 Factor 2
Individual Cost Individual Cost
Impact = $60 Impact = $30
Factor 1 Factor 2
remaining impact, Combined remaining
with Factor 2 Cost Impact impact, with
removed Factor 1
$50 $10 removed
$20
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IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
Operations
Statistics Economics
Research
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IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
Challenge Needed to identify quick-hit savings for the plant to plant transportation
for a region of the country by increasing utilization on each truck.
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IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
Data Infrastructure
Productivity Analytics Simplification /
Take-out cost and BAO Foundation
improve efficiency
Citizen Serivce
Government Analytics
Responsiveness
Better service Human Capital
citizens needs Analytics
24
IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
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IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
738,000
cases in
backlog
Initial Federal
Application Reconsideration Hearing Appeals District Court
Up to 5 years
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IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
Clearly
Disabled Decision and
QDD Unit benefits in 11
days
Scoring
Model:
All
Is Applicant
Applications
Clearly Normal
Disabled? Decision: 97
Adjudication
days on
and
average, up
Not Clearly application
to 5 years
Disabled levels
• SSA conceived of a new
• Request additional
process medical records
• Create a centralized • Request medical
examination
team for expedited
review of cases
• Automatically send
workload to this group
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IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
• Example of a Probabilistic
Classifier
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IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
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IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
Benefits FHA used the model to determine an array of insurance pricing and
risk management options to lower front-end insurance cost for the
borrowers, increasing the program‟s attractiveness to new enrollees. It
also strengthened the financial soundness of the program, allowing
HECM to maintain as a risk-neutral program in the volatile market
environment. 30
IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
Most segmentation
approaches only
Time until focus here
Repurchase Econometric:
Annual Age +
Annual
in Key Real-estate &
Unemployment Spend Transactions Income +
Preferred Categories Level Geography
Product
Preferred Categories
Length of Channel
Time as
Customer
Participation in
Use of In- Loyalty
Return / Use of Service
House Credit Program
Breadth of Exchange Programs
Behavior Card
Categories
Response to Shopped
Recency +
Media
Frequency +
Value
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IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
– Insights into prospects‟ health insurance status enable a more targeted and
effective acquisition approach
– Insights into consumer‟s channel preference enable Payer to engage prospect
and members in the most effective channel for different messaging context
– Insights into members‟ education needs enable Payer to help member to
understand plan value and promote wellness, building trust and loyalty.
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IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
Source: Analytics: The New Path to Value, a joint MIT Sloan Management Review and IBM Institute of Business Value study. Copyright ©
Massachusetts Institute of Technology 2010. 33
IBM Advanced Analytics & Optimization
Next Steps
Christer Johnson
IBM Global Business Services, Partner
Advanced Analytics Services Leader, N. America
Shaun Barry
IBM Global Business Services, Associate Partner
Global Leader for Fraud Management Solutions
Thank You!