BERI

1. Fractionalisation of political spectrum

South Africa is a constitutional democracy with a three-tier system of government at
national, provincial, and local levels. Post-apartheid period since 1994 it is
characterized by a system of universal adult suffrage and multi-party democracy.
ANC is the largest political party in South Africa and the ruling party (Tripartite
Alliance) since 1994 with over 56% vote share in National elections held in 2019.
The declining clout and dissatisfaction over ANC’s performance in recent years have
been successfully exploited by the opposition notably following the corruption
scandals involving ZUMA and economic frontiers collapses. Also, the intense internal
rivalry in ANC has led to several political assassinations. Especially the appointment
of local body representatives and party members has often caused localised violence
and fights in party cadre.
Divisions within the ruling ANC in recent years has led to several setbacks on the
reformist agenda, as the faction supporting earlier president ZUMA has tried blocking
several reforms relating to energy and mining segment. Separate state commissions
of enquiry have examined malfeasance at various state agencies for political
purposes under ZUMA, which had led to widespread divisions between the
competing factions of ANC. The long-term success of all political parties depends on
their ability to draw support from the people born after 1994 termed the “Born Free”
generation as they comprise 47% of the population and have extremely high levels of
unemployment. The level of engagement is abysmally low for this generation in the
politics and voting due to discontent over several issues. The high levels of
discontentment among Born free generation, deep fractionalization in the ruling party
and declining clout of ANC poses a moderate risk to the stability at centre in South
Africa.

2. Fractionalization by language, race, religion

South Africa has a history of racial discrimination where apartheid, an institutional
form of racial segregation and discrimination existed from 1948 till 1990s between
native majority black population and minority white population. Demographically
Black African, coloured, and white people have 80.9%,8.8% and 7.8% population
respectively as per 2011 census. Race is still deeply ingrained in the South African
psyche and culture like in the United States, South Africa’s major cities remain
largely racially segregated, with “black neighbourhoods” and “white neighbourhoods.
‘Apartheid and its associated policies created a strict racial hierarchy whose effects
are felt to this day.
The black majority has gained only incomplete control of the new South Africa; they
hold political power, but economic power still rests in white hands. Blacks have per
capita income 1/6th of their white counterparts. A World Bank report in May 2018
stated that South Africa remains the most economically unequal country in the world.
Poverty levels are highest among black people. Whites make up the majority of the
elite or top 5% of the population. This racial division has led several hate crimes and
racial crimes in the form of farm killings and rioting in white majority areas.
 Overall Patterns of racism and systemic racial inequality remain entrenched in South
Africa despite the end of apartheid, with rise in racial crimes and vandalism related to
it, in last 5 years.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-46071479
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/racism-tops-list-of-rights-violations-in-south-
africa/1334932
3. Restrictive measures to retain power
The Democracy Index rankings of EIU categorised South Africa as a “flawed democracy”
with declining trend over the last 5 years from 7.91 to 7.24. The declining trend is
attributed to recent set of events undertaken by the government to put limits on media
independence, especially due to the passing of the Protection of Information Bill 2012
and the Higher Education and Training Laws Amendment 2012. Both these bills
encroach on the civil liberties of South Africa as well its overall democratic quality.
The instances of vigilante mob justice, brutal and abusive police tactics of quelling the
crime and democratic protests. Extrajudicial killings and torture are highlighted by
Independent Police Investigative Directorate (IPID), with over 607 deaths either in police
custody in the year 2018-19.
The introduction of laws like Protection of investment act in 2015 to take away special
FDI dispute rights enjoyed by foreign investors under BITS. Coupled with the 2018
uncompensated state land expropriation committee has led to the fear of targeting white
minority groups and foreign investments, which might damage the banking system and
prompt several international investors to question the security of private investment in
South Africa.
South Africa’s national prosecuting authority are widely considered compromised by
political interference. By contrast the judiciary, in particular the Constitutional Court, is
still seen as squeaky clean and independent, but several attempts have been made in
the past by Zuma regime to curtail its powers to overturn cabinet and government laws.
Overall South Africa is witnessing an increasing trend of centralisation and abuse of
power by political establishment despite being a democracy.

4. Xenophobia, nationalism, corruption

The website of GAN integrity describes South Africa as a country which suffers from
widespread corruption, extensive misuse of state money, acts of bribery, nepotism, and
tender fraud within government. Corruption is not only evident at the government level,
but also in allied democratic institutions like police. The recent scandal which involved
former president Jacob Zuma, several high-ranking officials and business tycoons,
highlights the extent of corruption in the government machinery.

Xenophobic mob violence peaked in 2008 and again in 2015, these attacks prompted
government to deploy army in cities like Durban and Johannesburg, to deter further
unrest and damage to property. In 2019 a diplomatic rift with Nigeria led to victimisation
and violence against Nigerian workers. These systematic xenophobic attacks against
refugees, asylum seekers and migrants are a sign of local resentment against the
success of immigrants in achieving socioeconomic mobility and anti-foreigner rhetoric
fuelled by politicians and due to non-action and failure of criminal justice system. Overall,
 the high levels xenophobic instances of 2015,2019 and 2020, along with high levels of
institutional corruption is a worrying sign for South African society and its stability.

5. Social conditions (population density and wealth distribution)

South Africa is one of the most unequal and skewedly distributed countries in terms of
income and consumption. Post-apartheid, the level of inequality has risen in the south
African society with its GINI coefficient, a measure of income inequality rising from 0.61
in 1996 to 0.63 in 2019, which is one of the highest in the world. The population
distribution in South Africa is concentrated along the southern and south eastern coast,
with the eastern half being more densely populated. Rural- Urban and racial disparities
do exist, with widespread issues of access to basic amenities like electricity and water.
Evictions are a common feature. The skewed wealth distribution arises from the
institutional failure of land distribution, with white minority controlling 70% of land. During
the Covid-19 crisis widespread reports of looting of grocery stores and alcohol shops due
to food insecurity and loss of livelihood was reported.

High levels of high unemployment in several cities has given rise to Brutal drug gangs
which wields extremely high power in many large townships. In one such city military had
to be deployed after a series of drug related murders in 2019. The situation on gender
and inclusion segment is also troubling as South Africa has one of the world’s highest
per capita rates of gender-based violence (GBV) and rape.

We can observe that high societal inequality, rising crimes against women’s and high
levels unemployment has put a lot of stress on the South African society at present. The
onset of Covid-19 has already made the situation much worse leading to several riots,
demonstrations, and humanitarian crisis in South Africa.

6. Strength of radical left

ANC the largest political party and the ruling party is ideologically leftist but in practice
melds pragmatic support to private sector-led growth and investment with a state-centric
approach of development known as the “Developmental state model”. The tripartite
agreement of ANC with Communist party and Congress of South African Trade Unions
allows them to exert power on the labour unions, workers. This agreement acts as bridge
between the ruling ANC and working class. With a Heavily unionized labour and rigid
labour laws, such that in several industries unions have an extremely high power to
negotiate wages and working conditions. Given this, it is vital to note that in South Africa
labour regulations are not effectively applied, and it is littered by illegal strikes marred by
acts of violence and intimidation. Labour unrest in mining and government sector is quite
common