Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Session 12
The Rise of China – 2
March 12, 2021
Taiwan
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Taiwan
• An island of 23 million people off the coast of China,
Taiwan was the base of the Kuomintang (KMT) which fled
to the island after the Communist Party’s victory in 1949
• Until 1949 Taiwan was part of China
• The KMT ruled Taiwan under a one‐party system from
1949 to 2000, imposing military rule and imposing
discriminatory policies against the indigenous Taiwanese
• It became a democracy in the 1990s and allowed multi‐
party politics
• Both China and the KMT maintain a ‘one China’ policy.
• Each claims to be the legitimate sovereign over mainland
China, Taiwan and Hong Kong and seeks reunification
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Taiwanese Independence
• While officially Taiwan has maintained a ‘one
China’ position, many of its citizens want Taiwan
to declare independence
• The Democratic Progressive Party, supported by
indigenous Taiwanese, who comprise about 75%
of the population, was legalized in 1989 and it
won power in 2000
• The DPP has supported a Declaration of
Independence, but is held back by the Chinese
threat to invade the island if it declares
independence
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• The DPP lost elections in 2008
and the KMT came back to power
• In January 2016 the DPP
returned to power once again
with Tsai‐Ing Wen as President
• It rejects the ‘One China Policy’
but says a formal declaration of
independence is unnecessary
• China is vehemently opposed to
the DPP, and on January 2, 2019,
President Xi refused to rule out
the use of military force to
‘reunify China’ prompting
President Wen to ask for
international support 5
• While economic relations between China and Taiwan
have increased substantially the reunification of China
remains a perennial issue
• Even though the US recognizes ‘one China’ and the PRC
as its government, it is also subject to the Taiwan
Relations Act passed in 1979
• This commits the US to supplying arms and defending
Taiwan in case of an attempt by China to force
reunification by an invasion
• Taiwan fears that growing Chinese military power would
prevent the US from coming to its defense and is
spending heavily on its armed forces
• The US sold over US$ 5 billion dollars worth of arms to
Taiwan in 2020
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• However, many analysts believe that President Xi is
determined to annex Taiwan by force
• The top US admiral fo the Indo‐Pacific region said on
March 9, 2021, that he feared that with China’s growing
military strength an invasion would happen within the
next six years
China‐US relations
• The US is involved in almost of the disputes that
China has with its neighbors, Japan, Taiwan and
South East Asia
• Many US analysts argue that China suffers from a
‘Middle Kingdom’ complex – considering
themselves as culturally superior to outsiders, the
‘barbarians’
• They believe that China’s belief in peaceful
coexistence is only until such time as it builds up
both economic and military power
• China is a ‘power maximiser’ and an ‘anti‐status
quo power’ willing to disrupt stability to achieve a
more influential position in world affairs 8
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US Alliances in East Asia
• The US fears that once China consolidates its power it would
try to confront the US and reduce US influence in South East
Asian and the Pacific region
• The US is tied to Japan, Taiwan, Singapore and the
Philippines by defense agreements
• Since it is committed to their defence, any attempt by China
to force its territorial claims or dominate SLOCs will invite
American intervention
• The US regularly conducts freedom of navigation flights and
warship movements in the South China sea to contest
Chinese claims that these are its territorial waters and ships
and aircraft need Chinese approval to fly
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpeWB40XIaU
• While deliberate confrontation is unlikely,
miscalculations can happen, especially when
China enforces its claims through armed
interventions
• Other major disputes between the US and
China relate to currency manipulation, voting
rights in the IMF, and reducing emissions to
prevent climate change
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US and the ‘Made in China2025’ Plan
• One major confrontation between China and the
US is regarding the Chinese government’s ‘Made
in China 2025’ Plan
• The plan is aimed at upgrading Chinese industry
and increase the content of core‐components
and materials to 40% by 2022 and 75% by 2025
• This is to address concerns that a lot of Chinese
hi‐tech industrial products contain foreign
components (e.g. US made chips for Huawei and
ZTE)
• The plan focuses on 10 areas of R&D
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Focus areas of 2025 Plan
• New advanced information technology
• Automated machine tools & robotics
• Aerospace and aeronautical equipment
• Maritime equipment and high‐tech shipping
• Modern rail transport equipment
• New‐energy vehicles and equipment
• Power equipment
• Agricultural equipment
• New materials
• Biopharma and advanced medical products
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The US Response I – Countering Technology
Theft
• The US alleges that China is pursing the 2025
aggressively by forcing US and foreign firms to transfer
technology if they want to operate in China and also
through industrial espionage
• In October 2018 the US indicted 10 Chinese intelligence
officers and hackers of targeting US and European
aircraft engine manufacturers to steal technology
• In the same month a Chinese spy was extradited to the
US to face charges of attempting to steal trade secrets
related to aircraft engines
• In December 2018, Meng Wanzhou, the CFO of Huwei
was arrested in Vancouver, Canada, at the request of US
law enforcement for charges related to violation of
sanctions on Iran
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The US Response II – Leveraging Trade
• The Trump Administration imposed sanctions on
almost 500 billion dollars of Chinese imports in
two phases
• In December 2018 President Trump announced a
suspension of further tariff increases pending
talks for a settlement
• Tariff increases are aimed at forcing Beijing to
open up its markets and prevent it from gaining a
technological edge over the US
• The new Biden administration has indicated that
it will continue to be tough on China – a policy
that is popular domestically
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US Attitude Towards China 2005 ‐ 2020
(Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/04/21/u‐s‐views‐of‐china‐increasingly‐
negative‐amid‐coronavirus‐outbreak/)
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North Korea
• North Korea is another source of instability in East
Asia
• The development of long‐range missiles and nuclear
weapons by the North Korean regime has seriously
undermined stability in the East Asia region
• It threatens the US and Japan, and causes deep
concern in China
• Kim Jong‐un, like his father and grandfather who
were both North Korean leaders, has a deeply
paranoid view of the world
• They believe that the US, Japan and South Korea are
intent on regime change in North Korea 16
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• The development of nuclear weapons and long
range missiles started after German
reunification and the collapse of Soviet Union
• Nuclear technology was obtained from
Pakistan in return for help with long‐range
nuclear missiles
• North Korea has put in tremendous effort to
develop long‐range missiles, capable of
reaching the US mainland, believing that this is
the only means of ensuring the regime survival
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• A war in the Korean peninsula would affect both
South Korea and China
• Parts of Seoul are within artillery range of the
North Korean border
• China fears an influx of millions of refugees from
North Korea with which it shares a long border in
case of war
• Nuclear weapons are a serious concern to Japan
and the US since both are considered potential
North Korean targets
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Korean Peninsula
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• In June 2018 North Korea agreed to dismantle its
long‐range missiles and nuclear weapons
infrastrucutre in return for an end to economic
sanctions and security guarantees
• However, it restarted the programme because
economic sanctions were not lifted in return for its
concessions
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Russia and China
• While Sino‐Russian relations are better than Sino‐US
relations, and both are members of the BRICS group,
disputes exist over economic relations with Japan, and
China’s appetite for Russian natural resources,
particularly energy
• Russia is concerned about its inability to export value‐
added goods to China and being exposed to volatility in
commodity prices
• Russia continues to sell weapons to South East Asian
countries and invest in energy exploration projects off
the Vietnam coast
• Russia is also worried about rapidly improving economic
links between China and the Central Asian states,
previously part of the Soviet Union
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