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An Introduction To Machine Learning: L1: Basics and Probability Theory
An Introduction To Machine Learning: L1: Basics and Probability Theory
Alexander J. Smola
Statistical Machine Learning Program
Canberra, ACT 0200 Australia
Alex.Smola@nicta.com.au
Tata Institute,
Machine LearningPune, January
Summer 2007
School 2008
1 Data
2 Data Analysis
Unsupervised Learning
Supervised Learning
Vectors
Collections of features
e.g. height, weight, blood pressure, age, . . .
Can map categorical variables into vectors
Matrices
Images, Movies
Remote sensing and satellite data (multispectral)
Strings
Documents
Gene sequences
Structured Objects
XML documents
Graphs
Alexander J. Smola: An Introduction to Machine Learning 5 / 43
Optical Character Recognition
Goal
Estimate function of protein based on sequence information.
Example Data
>0_d1vcaa2 2.1.1.4.1 (1-90) N-terminal domain of vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM-1) [human (Homo sapiens)]
FKIETTPESRYLAQIGDSVSLTCSTTGCESPFFSWRTQIDSPLNGKVTNEGTTSTLTMNPVSFGNEHSYL
CTATCESRKLEKGIQVEIYS
>0_d1zxq_2 2.1.1.4.2 (1-86) N-terminal domain of intracellular adhesion molecule-2, ICAM-2 [human (Homo sapiens)]
KVFEVHVRPKKLAVEPKGSLEVNCSTTCNQPEVGGLETSLNKILLDEQAQWKHYLVSNISHDTVLQCHFT
CSGKQESMNSNVSVYQ
>0_d1tlk__ 2.1.1.4.3 Telokin [turkey (Meleagris gallopavo)]
VAEEKPHVKPYFTKTILDMDVVEGSAARFDCKVEGYPDPEVMWFKDDNPVKESRHFQIDYDEEGNCSLTI
SEVCGDDDAKYTCKAVNSLGEATCTAELLVETM
>0_d2ncm__ 2.1.1.4.4 N-terminal domain of neural cell adhesion molecule (NCAM) [human (Homo sapiens)]
RVLQVDIVPSQGEISVGESKFFLCQVAGDAKDKDISWFSPNGEKLSPNQQRISVVWNDDDSSTLTIYNAN
IDDAGIYKCVVTAEDGTQSEATVNVKIFQ
>0_d1tnm__ 2.1.1.4.5 Titin [Human (Homo sapiens), module M5]
RILTKPRSMTVYEGESARFSCDTDGEPVPTVTWLRKGQVLSTSARHQVTTTKYKSTFEISSVQASDEGNY
SVVVENSEGKQEAEFTLTIQK
>0_d1wiu__ 2.1.1.4.6 Twitchin [Nematode (Caenorhabditis elegans)]
LKPKILTASRKIKIKAGFTHNLEVDFIGAPDPTATWTVGDSGAALAPELLVDAKSSTTSIFFPSAKRADS
GNYKLKVKNELGEDEAIFEVIVQ
>0_d1koa_1 2.1.1.4.6 (351-447) Twitchin [Nematode (Caenorhabditis elegans)]
QPRFIVKPYGTEVGEGQSANFYCRVIASSPPVVTWHKDDRELKQSVKYMKRYNGNDYGLTINRVKGDDKG
EYTVRAKNSYGTKEEIVFLNVTRHSEP
Incomplete Data
Measurement devices may fail
E.g. dead pixels on camera, microarray, forms
incomplete, . . .
Measuring things may be expensive
diagnosis for patients
Data may be censored
How to fix it
Clever algorithms (not this course . . . )
Simple mean imputation
Substitute in the average from other observations
Works amazingly well (for starters) . . .
1 Data
2 Data Analysis
Unsupervised Learning
Supervised Learning
Unsupervised Learning
Find clusters of the data
Find low-dimensional representation of the data
(e.g. unroll a swiss roll, find structure)
Find interesting directions in data
Interesting coordinates and correlations
Find novel observations / database cleaning
Supervised Learning
Classification (distinguish apples from oranges)
Speech recognition
Regression (tomorrow’s stock value)
Predict time series
Annotate strings
Data
Pairs of observations (xi , yi ) drawn from distribution
e.g., (blood status, cancer), (credit transactions, fraud),
(sound profile of jet engine, defect)
Goal
Estimate y ∈ {±1} given x at a new location. Or find a
function f (x) that does the trick.
Data
Pairs of observations (xi , yi ) generated from some joint
distribution Pr(x, y ), e.g.,
market index, SP100
fab parfameters, yield
user profile, price
Task
Estimate y , given x, such that some loss c(x, y , f (x)) is
minimized.
Examples
Quadratic error between y and f (x), i.e.
c(x, y , f (x)) = 21 (y − f (x))2 .
Absolute value, i.e., c(x, y , f (x)) = |y − f (x))|.
Goal
Possible meaning of an audio sequence
Give confidence measure
Example (from Australian Prime Minister’s speech)
a stray alien
Australian
Data
Observations xi from
some P(x), e.g.,
network usage
patterns
handwritten digits
alarm sensors
factory status
Task
Find unusual events,
clean database,
distinguish typical
examples.
Logic
If A meets B and B meets C, does A know C?
Rule satisfaction
Logical rules from data
Artificial Intelligence
Understanding of the world
Meet Sunny from I, Robot
Go and get me a bottle of beer
Robot need not understand what it is doing.
Biology and Neuroscience
Understand the brain by building neural networks?!?
Model brain and build good systems with that
Get inspiration from biology but no requirement to build
systems like that (e.g. jet planes don’t flap wings)
Alexander J. Smola: An Introduction to Machine Learning 26 / 43
Eliza
That’s true. And now I want to relax a bit before giving a talk.
Structure Extraction
Clustering
Low-dimensional subspaces
Low-dimensional representation of data
Novelty Detection
Find typical observations (Joe Sixpack)
Find highly unusual ones (oddball)
Database cleaning
Supervised Learning
Regression
Classification
Preference relationships (recommender systems)
Basic Idea
We have events in a space of possible outcomes. Then
Pr(X ) tells us how likely is that an event x ∈ X will occur.
Basic Axioms
Pr(X ) ∈ [0, 1] for all X ⊆ X
Pr(X) = 1 X
Pr (∪i Xi ) = Pr(Xi ) if Xi ∩ Xj = ∅ for all i 6= j
i
Simple Corollary
Two Sets
Assume that x and y are drawn from a probability measure
on the product space of X and Y. Consider the space of
events (x, y ) ∈ X × Y.
Independence
If x and y are independent, then for all X ⊂ X and Y ⊂ Y
Hypothesis Testing:
Is solution A or B better to solve the problem (e.g. in
manufacturing)?
Is a coin tainted?
Which parameter setting should we use?
Sensor Fusion:
Evidence from sensors A and B (AIDS test 1 and 2).
We have different types of data.
More Data:
We obtain two sets of data — we get more confident
Each observation can be seen as an additional test
Probability theory
Basic tools of the trade
Use it to model uncertain events
Dependence and Independence
Independent events don’t convey any information about
each other.
Dependence is what we exploit for estimation
Leads to Bayes rule
Testing
Prior probability matters
Combining tests improves outcomes
Common sense can be misleading
Data
Vectors, matrices, strings, graphs, . . .
What to do with data
Unsupervised learning (clustering, embedding, etc.),
Classification, sequence annotation, Regression, . . .
Random Variables
Dependence, Bayes rule, hypothesis testing
Alexander J. Smola
Statistical Machine Learning Program
Canberra, ACT 0200 Australia
Alex.Smola@nicta.com.au
Tata Institute,
Machine LearningPune, January
Summer 2007
School 2008
xnorm = sum(x**2)
xtestnorm = sum(xtest**2)
labelindex = dists.argmin(axis=1)
Rolling a dice:
Roll the dice many times and count how many times each
side comes up. Then assign empirical probability estimates
according to the frequency of occurrence.
#occurrences of i
P̂r(i) = #trials
20 tosses of a dice
Outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6
Counts 3 6 2 1 4 4
MLE 0.15 0.30 0.10 0.05 0.20 0.20
MAP (m0 = 6) 0.25 0.27 0.12 0.08 0.19 0.19
MAP (m0 = 100) 0.16 0.19 0.16 0.15 0.17 0.17
Consequences
Stronger prior brings the estimate closer to uniform
distribution.
More robust against outliers
But: Need more data to detect deviations from prior
Data
Continuous valued random variables.
Naive Solution
Apply the bin-counting strategy to the continuum. That is, we
discretize the domain into bins.
Problems
We need lots of data to fill the bins
In more than one dimension the number of bins grows
exponentially:
Assume 10 bins per dimension, so we have 10 in R1
100 bins in R2
1010 bins (10 billion bins) in R10 . . .
kr (x, x 0 ) := r n k (rx, rx 0 )
Gaussian Kernel
0
n2 1
k (x, x ) = 2πσ 2
exp − 2 kx − x 0 k2
2σ
Laplacian Kernel
Indicator Kernel
k (x, x 0 ) = 1[−0.5,0.5] (x − x 0 )
Important Issue
Width of the kernel is usually much more important than
type.
Alexander J. Smola: An Introduction to Machine Learning 31 / 63
Gaussian Kernel
Goal
We need a method for adjusting the kernel width.
Problem
The likelihood keeps on increasing as we narrow the kernels.
Reason
The likelihood estimate we see is distorted (we are being
overly optimistic through optimizing the parameters).
Possible Solution
Check the performance of the density estimate on an unseen
part of the data. This can be done e.g. by
Leave-one-out crossvalidation
Ten-fold crossvalidation
Basic Idea
Compute p(X 0 |θ(X \X 0 )) for various subsets of X and
average over the corresponding log-likelihoods.
Practical Implementation
Generate subsets Xi ⊂ X and compute the log-likelihood
estimate
n
1X 1
log p(Xi |θ(X |\Xi ))
n |Xi |
i
m 1
pX \xi (xi ) = pX (xi ) − k (xi , xi )
m−1 m−1
Goal
Find the least likely observations xi from a dataset X .
Alternatively, identify low-density regions, given X .
Idea
Perform density estimate pX (x) and declare all xi with
pX (xi ) < p0 as novel.
Algorithm P
Simply compute f (xi ) = j k (xi , xj ) for all i and sort
according to their magnitude.
Problem
One ’width fits all’ does not work well whenever we have
regions of high and of low density.
Idea
Adjust width such that neighbors of a point are included in the
kernel at a point. More specifically, adjust range hi to yield
r X
hi = kxj − xi k
k
xj ∈NN(xi ,k )
# Kernel function
import elefant.kernels.vector
k = elefant.kernels.vector.CGaussKernel(1)
Decision Boundary
Picking y = 1 or y = −1 depends on the sign of
P
yi k (xi , x)
Pr(y = 1|x) − Pr(y = −1|x) = Pi
i k (xi , x)
Extension to Regression
Use the same equation for regression. This means that
P
yi k (xi , x)
f (x) = Pi
i k (xi , x)
where now yi ∈ R.
We get a locally weighted version of the data
Novelty Detection
Observations in low-density regions are special
(outliers).
Applications to database cleaning, network security, etc.
Adaptive Kernel Width (Silverman’s Trick)
Kernels wide wherever we have low density
Watson Nadaraya Estimator
Conditional density estimate
Difference between class means (in feature space)
Same expression works for regression, too
Density estimation
empirical frequency, bin counting
priors and Laplace rule
Parzen windows
Smoothing out the estimates
Examples
Adjusting parameters
Cross validation
Silverman’s rule
Classification and regression with Parzen windows
Watson-Nadaraya estimator
Nearest neighbor classifier
Alexander J. Smola
Statistical Machine Learning Program
Canberra, ACT 0200 Australia
Alex.Smola@nicta.com.au
Tata Institute,
Machine LearningPune, January
Summer 2007
School 2008
Hebb’s rule
positive feedback
perceptron convergence rule
Hyperplanes
Linear separability
Inseparable sets
Features
Explicit feature construction
Implicit features via kernels
Kernels
Examples
Kernel perceptron
Basic Idea
Good behavior should be rewarded, bad behavior
punished (or not rewarded).
This improves the fitness of the system.
Example: hitting a tiger should be rewarded . . .
Correlated events should be combined.
Example: Pavlov’s salivating dog.
Training Mechanisms
Behavioral modification of individuals (learning):
Successful behavior is rewarded (e.g. food).
Hard-coded behavior in the genes (instinct):
The wrongly coded animal dies.
Soma
Cell body. Here the signals
are combined (“CPU”).
Dendrite
Combines the inputs from
several other nerve cells
(“input bus”).
Synapse
Interface between two neurons (“connector”).
Axon
This may be up to 1m long and will transport the activation
signal to nerve cells at different locations (“output cable”).
Weighted combination
The output of the neuron is a linear combination of the
inputs (from the other neurons via their axons) rescaled
by the synaptic weights.
Often the output does not directly correspond to the
activation level but is a monotonic function thereof.
Decision Function
At the end the results are combined into
n
!
X
f (x) = σ wi xi + b .
i=1
Algorithm
Nothing happens if we classify (xi , yi ) correctly
If we see incorrectly classified observation we update
(w, b) by yi (xi , 1).
Positive reinforcement of observations.
Solution
Weight vector is linear combination of observations xi :
w ←− w + yi xi
Incremental Algorithm
Already while the perceptron is learning, we can use it.
Convergence Theorem (Rosenblatt and Novikoff)
Suppose that there exists a ρ > 0, a weight vector w ∗
satisfying kw ∗ k = 1, and a threshold b∗ such that
(b∗2 + 1)(R 2 + 1)
ρ2
Learning Algorithm
We perform an update only if we make a mistake.
Convergence Bound
Bounds the maximum number of mistakes in total. We
will make at most (b∗ 2 + 1)(R 1 + 1)/ρ2 mistakes in the
case where a “correct” solution w ∗ , b∗ exists.
This also bounds the expected error (if we know ρ, R,
and |b∗ |).
Dimension Independent
Bound does not depend on the dimensionality of X.
Sample Expansion
We obtain w as a linear combination of xi .
Perceptron
Separating halfspaces
Perceptron algorithm
Convergence theorem
Only depends on margin, dimension independent
Pseudocode
for i in range(m):
ytest = numpy.dot(w, x[:,i]) + b
if ytest * y[i] <= 0:
w += y[i] * x[:,i]
b += y[i]
Problem
Linear functions are often too simple to provide good
estimators.
Idea
Map to a higher dimensional feature space via
Φ : x → Φ(x) and solve the problem there.
Replace every hx, x 0 i by hΦ(x), Φ(x 0 )i in the perceptron
algorithm.
Consequence
We have nonlinear classifiers.
Solution lies in the choice of features Φ(x).
Features
Quadratic features correspond to circles, hyperbolas and
ellipsoids as separating surfaces.
Alexander J. Smola: An Introduction to Machine Learning 21 / 40
Constructing Features
Idea
Construct features manually. E.g. for OCR we could use
Problems
Need to be an expert in the domain (e.g. Chinese
characters).
Features may not be robust (e.g. postman drops letter in
dirt).
Can be expensive to compute.
Solution
Use shotgun approach.
Compute many features and hope a good one is among
them.
Do this efficiently.
Idea
We want to extend k (x, x 0 ) = hx, x 0 i2 to
d
k (x, x 0 ) = (hx, x 0 i + c) where c ≥ 0 and d ∈ N.
Individual terms (hx, x 0 i)i are dot products for some Φi (x).
Alexander J. Smola: An Introduction to Machine Learning 28 / 40
Kernel Perceptron
Important
Xdetail P
w= yj Φ(xj ) and hence f (x) = j yj k (xj , x) + b.
j
Computability
We have to be able to compute k (x, x 0 ) efficiently (much
cheaper than dot products themselves).
“Nice and Useful” Functions
The features themselves have to be useful for the learning
problem at hand. Quite often this means smooth functions.
Symmetry
Obviously k (x, x 0 ) = k (x 0 , x) due to the symmetry of the dot
product hΦ(x), Φ(x 0 )i = hΦ(x 0 ), Φ(x)i.
Dot Product in Feature Space
Is there always a Φ such that k really is a dot product?
Interpretation
Double integral is continuous version of vector-matrix-vector
multiplication. For positive semidefinite matrices
XX
k (xi , xj )αi αj ≥ 0
i j
Kernel Expansion
If w is given by a linear combination of Φ(xi ) we get
* m + m
X X
hw, Φ(x)i = αi Φ(xi ), Φ(x) = αi k (xi , x).
i=1 i=1
Linear hx, x 0 i
Laplacian RBF exp (−λkx − x 0 k)
exp −λkx − x 0 k2
Gaussian RBF
d
Polynomial (hx, x 0 i + ci) , c ≥ 0, d ∈ N
B-Spline B2n+1 (x − x 0 )
Cond. Expectation Ec [p(x|c)p(x 0 |c)]
Features
Prior knowledge, expert knowledge
Shotgun approach (polynomial features)
Kernel trick k (x, x 0 ) = hφ(x), φ(x 0 )i
Mercer’s theorem
Applications
Kernel Perceptron
Nonlinear algorithm automatically by query-replace
Examples of Kernels
Gaussian RBF
Polynomial kernels
Hebb’s rule
positive feedback
perceptron convergence rule, kernel perceptron
Features
Explicit feature construction
Implicit features via kernels
Kernels
Examples
Mercer’s theorem
Alexander J. Smola
Statistical Machine Learning Program
Canberra, ACT 0200 Australia
Alex.Smola@nicta.com.au
Tata Institute,
Machine LearningPune, January
Summer 2007
School 2008
Data
Pairs of observations (xi , yi ) generated from some
distribution P(x, y ), e.g., (blood status, cancer), (credit
transaction, fraud), (profile of jet engine, defect)
Task
Estimate y given x at a new location.
Modification: find a function f (x) that does the task.
Margin to Norm
2
Separation of sets is given by kwk
so maximize that.
Equivalently minimize 12 kwk.
Equivalently minimize 12 kwk2 .
Constraints
Separation with margin, i.e.
hw, xi i + b ≥ 1 if yi = 1
hw, xi i + b ≤ −1 if yi = −1
Equivalent constraint
yi (hw, xi i + b) ≥ 1
1
minimize kwk2
2
subject to yi (hw, xi i + b) − 1 ≥ 0 for all 1 ≤ i ≤ m
Properties
Problem is convex
Hence it has unique minimum
Efficient algorithms for solving it exist
1
Objective Function kwk2 .
2
Constraints ci (w, b) := 1 − yi (hw, xi i + b) ≤ 0
Lagrange Function
X
L(w, b, α) = PrimalObjective + αi ci
i
m
1 X
= kwk2 + αi (1 − yi (hw, xi i + b))
2
i=1
Saddlepoint condition
m
X m
X
∂w L(w, b, α) = w − αi yi xi = 0 ⇐⇒ w= αi yi xi
i=1 i=1
m
X m
X
∂b L(w, b, α) = − αi yi xi = 0 ⇐⇒ αi yi = 0
i=1 i=1
Practical Modification
Need to maximize dual objective function. Rewrite as
m m
1X X
minimize αi αj yi yj hxi , xj i − αi
2
i,j=1 i=1
Linear Classification
Many solutions
Optimal separating hyperplane
Optimization problem
Support Vector Machines
Quadratic problem
Lagrange function
Dual problem
Interpretation
Dual variables and SVs
SV expansion
Hard margin and infinite weights
Advantage
Works well when the data is
noise free.
Problem
Already a single wrong
observation can ruin
everything — we require
yi f (xi ) ≥ 1 for all i.
Idea
Limit the influence of
individual observations by
making the constraints less
stringent (introduce slacks).
1
minimize kwk2
2
subject to yi (hw, xi i + b) − 1 ≥ 0
Changing C
For clean data C doesn’t matter much.
For noisy data, large C leads to narrow margin (SVM
tries to do a good job at separating, even though it isn’t
possible)
Noisy data
Clean data has few support vectors
Noisy data leads to data in the margins
More support vectors for noisy data
SVM Classification
import elefant.kernels.vector
# linear kernel
k = elefant.kernels.vector.CLinearKernel()
# Gaussian RBF kernel
k = elefant.kernels.vector.CGaussKernel(rbf)
import elefant.estimation.svm.svmclass as
svmclass
svm = svmclass.SVC(C, kernel=k)
alpha, b = svm.Train(x, y)
ytest = svm.Test(xtest)
Optimization Problem
m m
1X X
minimize αi αj yi yj k (xi , xj ) − αi
2
i,j=1 i=1
m
X
subject to αi yi = 0 and C ≥ αi ≥ 0 for all 1 ≤ i ≤ m
i=1
Interpretation
Almost same optimization problem as before
Constraint on weight of each αi (bounds influence of
pattern).
Efficient solvers exist (more about that tomorrow).
Changing C
For clean data C doesn’t matter much.
For noisy data, large C leads to more complicated
margin (SVM tries to do a good job at separating, even
though it isn’t possible)
Overfitting for large C
Noisy data
Clean data has few support vectors
Noisy data leads to data in the margins
More support vectors for noisy data
Changing σ
For clean data σ doesn’t matter much.
For noisy data, small σ leads to more complicated
margin (SVM tries to do a good job at separating, even
though it isn’t possible)
Lots of overfitting for small σ
Noisy data
Clean data has few support vectors
Noisy data leads to data in the margins
More support vectors for noisy data
Alexander J. Smola
Statistical Machine Learning Program
Canberra, ACT 0200 Australia
Alex.Smola@nicta.com.au
Machine LearningPune,
Tata Institute, Summer School
January 2008
2007
Novelty Detection
Basic idea
Optimization problem
Stochastic Approximation
Examples
Regression
Additive noise
Regularization
Examples
SVM Regression
Quantile Regression
Software
SVMLight (T. Joachims, Cornell)
LibSVM (C. Lin, NTU Taipei)
SVMLin (V. Simdhani, U Chicago)
SVMTorch (S. Bengio, Martigny)
PLearn (P. Vincent, Montreal)
Elefant (K. Gawande, NICTA)
WEKA (Waikato)
R (Vienna, other places)
More Course Material
http://sml.nicta.com.au/∼smola/
Problems
We do not care about estimating the density properly in
regions of high density (waste of capacity).
We only care about the relative density for thresholding
purposes.
We want to eliminate a certain fraction of observations
and tune our estimator specifically for this fraction.
Solution
Areas of low density can be approximated as the level
set of an auxiliary function. No need to estimate p(x)
directly — use proxy of p(x).
Specifically: find f (x) such that x is novel if f (x) ≤ c
where c is some constant, i.e. f (x) describes the amount
of novelty.
Alexander J. Smola: An Introduction to Machine Learning 14 / 46
Maximum Distance Hyperplane
Idea Find hyperplane, given by f (x) = hw, xi + b = 0 that has
maximum distance from origin yet is still closer to the
origin than the observations.
Hard Margin
1
minimize kwk2
2
subject to hw, xi i ≥ 1
Soft Margin
m
1 X
minimize kwk2 + C ξi
2
i=1
subject to hw, xi i ≥ 1 − ξi
ξi ≥ 0
Alexander J. Smola: An Introduction to Machine Learning 15 / 46
The ν-Trick
Problem
Depending on C, the number of novel points will vary.
We would like to specify the fraction ν beforehand.
Solution
Use hyperplane separating data from the origin
H := {x|hw, xi = ρ}
Stochastic Approximation
1
kwk2 max(0, ρ − hw, φ(xi )i) − νρ
2
Gradient
w − φ(xi ) if hw, φ(xi )i < ρ
∂w [. . .] =
w otherwise
(1 − ν) if hw, φ(xi )i < ρ
∂ρ [. . .] =
−ν otherwise
Alexander J. Smola: An Introduction to Machine Learning 19 / 46
Practical Implementation
Update in coefficients
p(height, weight)
p(weight|height) = ∝ p(height, weight)
p(height)
Joint Probability
We have distribution over y and y 0 , given training and test
data x, x 0 .
Bayes Rule
This gives us the conditional probability via
Normal Distribution in R
1 1
p(x) = √ exp − 2 (x − µ)2
2πσ 2 2σ
Normal Distribution in Rn
1 1 > −1
p(x) = p exp − (x − µ) Σ (x − µ)
(2π)n det Σ 2
Parameters
µ ∈ Rn is the mean.
Σ ∈ Rn×n is the covariance matrix.
Σ has only nonnegative eigenvalues:
The variance is of a random variable is never negative.
Key Insight
We can use this for regression of y 0 given y .
Alexander J. Smola: An Introduction to Machine Learning 29 / 46
Some Covariance Functions
Observation
Any function k leading to a symmetric matrix with
nonnegative eigenvalues is a valid covariance function.
Necessary and sufficient condition (Mercer’s Theorem)
k needs to be a nonnegative integral kernel.
Examples of kernels k (x, x 0 )
Linear hx, x 0 i
Laplacian RBF exp (−λkx − x 0 k)
exp −λkx − x 0 k2
Gaussian RBF
d
Polynomial (hx, x 0 i + ci) , c ≥ 0, d ∈ N
B-Spline B2n+1 (x − x 0 )
Cond. Expectation Ec [p(x|c)p(x 0 |c)]
Covariance Function
Function of two arguments
Leads to matrix with nonnegative eigenvalues
Describes correlation between pairs of observations
Kernel
Function of two arguments
Leads to matrix with nonnegative eigenvalues
Similarity measure between pairs of observations
Lucky Guess
We suspect that kernels and covariance functions are
the same . . .
Covariance Matrices
Additive noise
K = Kkernel + σ 2 1
Predictive mean and variance
> −1 > −1
K̃ = Ky 0 y 0 − Kyy 0 Kyy Kyy 0 and µ̃ = Kyy 0 Kyy y
Pointwise prediction
Kyy = K + σ 2 1
Ky 0 y 0 = k (x, x) + σ 2
Kyy 0 = (k (x1 , x), . . . , k (xm , x))
Gaussian Process
Like function, just random
Mean and covariance determine the process
Can use it for estimation
Regression
Jointly normal model
Additive noise to deal with error in measurements
Estimate for mean and uncertainty
Loss Function
Given y , find f (x) such that the loss l(y , f (x)) is minimized.
Squared loss (y − f (x))2 .
Absolute loss |y − f (x)|.
-insensitive loss max(0, |y − f (x)| − ).
Quantile regression loss
max(τ (y − f (x)), (1 − τ )(f (x) − y )).
Expansion
f (x) = hφ(x), wi + b
Optimization Problem
m
X λ
minimize l(yi , f (xi )) + kwk2
w 2
i=1
Novelty Detection
Basic idea
Optimization problem
Stochastic Approximation
Examples
LMS Regression
Additive noise
Regularization
Examples
SVM Regression
Alexander J. Smola
Statistical Machine Learning Program
Canberra, ACT 0200 Australia
Alex.Smola@nicta.com.au
Tata Institute,
Machine LearningPune, January
Summer 2007
School 2008
Multiclass Estimation
Margin Definition
Optimization Problem
Dual Problem
Max-Margin-Markov Networks
Feature map
Column generation and SVMStruct
Application to sequence annotation
Web Page Ranking
Ranking Measures
Linear assignment problems
Examples
Goal
Given xi and yi ∈ {1, . . . , N}, define a margin.
Binary Classification
Multiclass Classification
Key Idea
Combine x and y into one feature vector φ(x, y ).
Large Margin Condition and Slack
Solving It
Use SVMStruct (by Thorsten Joachims)
Column generation (subset optimization). At optimality:
αiy [hφ(xi , yi ) − φ(xi , y ), wi − ∆(yi , y )] = 0
Pick (i, y ) pairs for which this doesn’t hold.
Alexander J. Smola: An Introduction to Machine Learning 12 / 24
Implementing It
Start
Use an existing structured SVM solver, e.g. SVMStruct.
Loss Function
Define a loss function ∆(y , y 0 ) for your problem.
Feature Map
Define a suitable feature map φ(x, y ). More examples later.
Column Generator
Implement algorithm which maximizes
hφ(xi , y ), wi + ∆(yi , y )
Multiclass Margin
Joint Feature Map
Relative margin using misclassification error
Binary classification a special case
Optimization Problem
Convex Problem
Can be solved using existing packages
Column generation
Joint feature map
Loss Function
Count how many of the labels are wrong, i.e.
∆(y , y 0 ) = ky − y 0 k1 .
Estimation
Find sequence y maximizing hφ(x, y ), wi, that is
l
X
yi hφ(xi ), w1 i + yi yi+1 w2
i=1
Dynamic Programming
We are maximizing a function li=1 f (yi , yi+1 ).
P
Forward Pass
Compute recursion
Backward Pass
After computing the last term yl , solve recursion yi (yi+1 ).
Cost
Linear time for forward and backward pass
Linear storage
Alexander J. Smola: An Introduction to Machine Learning 18 / 24
Extensions
Goal
Given a set of documents di and a query q, find ranking of
documents such that most relevant documents come first.
Data
At training time, we have ratings of pages yi ∈ {0, 5}.
Scoring Function
Discounted cumulative gain. That is, we gain more if we rank
relevant pages highly, namely
X 2yi + 1
DCG(π, y ) = πij .
log(j + 1)
i,j
Goal
We need a loss function, not a performance score.
Idea
Use performance relative to the best as loss score.
Practical Implementation
Instead of DCG(π, y ) use ∆(1, π) = DCG(1, y ) − DCG(π, y ).
Goal
Find w such that hw, φ(di , q)i gives us a score (like
PageRank, but we want to learn it from data).
Joint feature map
Need to map q, {d1 , . . . , dl } and π into feature space.
Want to get sort operation at test time from
hφ(q, D, π), wi.
Solution
X
φ(q, D, π) = πij ci φ(q, dj ) where ci is decreasing.
i,j
Consequence
P
i,j πij ci hφ(q, dj ), wi is maximized by sorting documents
along ci , i.e. in descending order.
Alexander J. Smola: An Introduction to Machine Learning 23 / 24
Sorting
Unsorted: score is 57
ci 1 2 3 4 5
Page ranks 3 2 3 9 1
Sorted: score is 71
ci 1 2 3 4 5
Page ranks 1 2 3 3 9
This is also known as the Polya-Littlewood-Hardy inequality
Ranking Problem
Web page ranking (documents with relevance score)
Multivariate performance score
Hard to optimize directly
Feature Map
Maps permutations and data jointly into feature space
Simple sort operation at test time
Column Generation
Linear assignment problem
Integrate in structured SVM solver
Structured Estimation
Basic idea
Optimization problem
Named Entity Tagging
Annotation of a sequence
Joint featuremap
Dynamic programming
Ranking
Multivariate performance score
Linear assignment problem