EVDRAFTREPORTAugust 2019

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Philippine Electric Vehicle Policy Analysis Report - Draft Report
Technical Report · July 2019
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Mitsubishi Motors Corporation, 2019. “Philippine Electric Vehicle Policy Analysis Report”.
Manila, Philippines.
The data and insights generated in this report are joint property of the academic
institutions involved and Mitsubishi Motors Corporation. Proper acknowledgement of the
publication is needed for educational and non-profit purposes. The use of this report for
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DISCLAIMER
The views expressed in this report are those of the members of the collaborating
universities and do not necessarily reflect the views of their respective institutions nor of
Mitsubishi Motors Corporation. The Mitsubishi Motors Corporation does not guarantee the
accuracy of the data included in this publication and does not accept responsibility for
consequence of their use.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The project team extends its sincerest gratitude to Mitsubishi Motors Corporation,
Mitsubishi Motors Philippines Corporation, and the Department of Trade and Industry-
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Board of Investments for all its support. The team is also grateful for all the other
government agencies and institutions that participated in the activities leading to this
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report including DOE, DOTr, DOST, DENR, BOC, LTO, EVAP and industry partners. The
team particularly acknowledges: DTI Undersecretary.Rafaelita Aldaba, Mr. Renato
Lampano, Mr. Arden Oco, Ms. Catherine Nuqui, and Ms. June VIllasanta for efforts and
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undying support extended to the project.

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Project Team
Over-all Project Lead

Jose Bienvenido Manuel Biona, PhD
De La Salle University
Jose Bienvenido Manuel Biona, PhD
Neil Stephen Lopez, PhD
Aristotle Ubando, PhD
Cristina Villaraza, MSc
Jimwell Soliman, MSc
Ivan Henderson Gue, MSc
Monorom Rith, MSc
McRey Banderlipe II, MSc
University of the Philippines

Lew Andrew Tria, PhD
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Leo Allen Tayo, ECE
Rovinna Janel Cruzate, ECE
Wotly John Julia
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Carlos Leniel Origenes, ECE
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Belle Sermeno, ECE
Vlesie Mae Salas, ECE
Jade Marabella, ECE
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Carlo Joshua Lauengco

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Billy Joel Esquivel

Julie Ann Alicos, ECE
Aaron Lloyd Tiu, ECE
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James Carl Satorre, ME

Remigio de Ungria, ME
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Joy Rodgers, ME
Reinon Cristian Salvador, ME
Alexis Kid Edraira
Patrick Tuscano
Mario Arradaza
Veronica Centeno
Amelia Yanzon
Ma. Rita Yvonne Yapit
Alorna Abao
Ateneo Innovation Center, Ateneo De Manila University

Carlos Oppus, MSc
Paul Cabacungan, MSc
Abby Kate Roxas
Kerwin Caballas
Reymond Cao
Lawrence Ibarrientos
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Mapua University
Igmedio F. Sila Jr., MSc
Technological University of the Philippines

Arjun Ansay, PhD
Engr. Teodinis Garcia
Kevien Cabarrubias-Dela Cruz, PhD
Nenet Graza, MSc
Engr. Almira Darilag
Engr. Frederick Ole
Carlos Zapanta, Meng
Elexis Edmond Lauzon, MT
Jennifer Alinsunod, MAT
Lean Karlo Tolentino, MSc
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................... iv

Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... 11
1 Electric Vehicles – A Global Overview ......................................................................... 22
1.1 Current Vehicle Stock and Growth ....................................................................... 22
1.2 EV Adoption Targets and Direction ...................................................................... 26
1.3 EV Cost and Performance ...................................................................................... 27
1.4 Battery Cost Projections and Technology ........................................................... 38
1.5 EV Charging Infrastructure Technology and Availability................................... 40
1.6 EV Adoption and Charging Infrastructure Strategies and Programs ............... 50
1.6.1 Electric vehicle policy review ............................................................................. 50
1.6.2 Charging infrastructure policy review ................................................................ 59
1.7. EV Supply Chain and Industry Trends ................................................................. 66
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1.7.1 Global EV and Battery Supply Chain ................................................................ 66
1.7.2 Electric Vehicle and Battery Industry Support and Strategies .......................... 69
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1.7.3 Battery Raw Material Supply Chain ................................................................... 78
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REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................ 84
2 EV in the Philippines ...................................................................................................... 98
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2.1 Local Electric Vehicle Stock and Models Available ............................................ 98

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2.2 Electric Vehicle Performance (Range and Energy Economy) and Cost ........ 104
2.3 EV-Related Government Initiatives ..................................................................... 106
2.4 EV Industry ............................................................................................................ 111
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2.4.1 Vehicle Design and Development ................................................................... 112

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2.4.3 Systems and Modules ..................................................................................... 115

2.4.4 Systems Integration and Assembly ................................................................. 115
2.4.5 Marketing and Sales ........................................................................................ 118
2.4.6 Vehicle Use ...................................................................................................... 123
2.5 Local EV Human Resource Support Assessment ............................................ 126
2.5.1 Technical Designations and Competency Requirements ............................... 126
2.5.2 Employment Outlook........................................................................................ 130
2.6 EV Standards in the Philippines .......................................................................... 131
REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................... 136
3 Electric Vehicle Demand Projections......................................................................... 142
3.1 Household EVs ...................................................................................................... 142
3.2 Commercial and Government Vehicles .............................................................. 148
3.3 Best-Case Projection EV Adoption ..................................................................... 148
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3.4 Summary ................................................................................................................ 150
REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................... 151
EV Charging Impacts to the Power Grid .................................................................... 152
4.1 Charging Behaviour .............................................................................................. 152
4.2.1 Hourly Demand Projections ............................................................................. 156
REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................... 167
5 Life Cycle Cost and Cost and Benefit Analysis ........................................................ 168
5.1 Life Cycle Cost ...................................................................................................... 168
5.1.1 Vehicle Cost.................................................................................................... 168
5.1.2 Energy Cost .................................................................................................... 172
5.1.3 Maintenance Cost .......................................................................................... 176
5.1.4 Life Cycle Cost and Breakdown ................................................................... 177
5.2 Cost and Benefit Analysis .................................................................................... 179
5.2.1 Tax Revenue Generation............................................................................... 179
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5.2.2 Job Generation ............................................................................................... 182
5.2.3 Balance of Payments ..................................................................................... 184
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5.2.4 Energy Security .............................................................................................. 186
5.2.5 Health Impact ................................................................................................. 187
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5.2.6 GHG Social Cost ............................................................................................ 188
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5.2.7 Weighted Cost and Benefit Analysis ........................................................... 189

REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................... 195
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6 Recommendations ....................................................................................................... 197

6.1 Demand Generation .............................................................................................. 202
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6.1.1 Corporate EV Fleet Programme ................................................................... 202

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6.1.2 Introduce minimum EV share in public transport modes ......................... 203

6.1.3 Government EV Procurement Programme ................................................. 204
6.1.4 Introduce EV fringe benefits ......................................................................... 204
6.2 EV Cost Reduction ................................................................................................ 204
6.2.1 Importation tariff, excise tax, and selective tax exemption ...................... 204
6.2.2 EV-based Eco-PUV Programme ................................................................... 205
6.3 Charging Infrastructure Development ................................................................ 206
6.3.1 EV Charging Point Masterplan and Regulations ....................................... 206
6.3.2 Charging Infrastructure Development Incentives Programme ................ 208
6.3.3 Formulation of Charging Power Rates Rules and Special Charging Power
Rates .......................................................................................................................... 209
6.3.4 Establish EV charging point installation standards, regulations, and local
permitting processes ................................................................................................... 210
6.3.5 Standard Charging Protocols....................................................................... 210
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6.4 Industry Development Program .......................................................................... 210
6.4.1 Rationalisation of fiscal incentives for EV assembly and parts production .
.......................................................................................................................... 210
6.4.2 Local EV Industry Fund................................................................................. 211
6.4.3 Harmonise vehicle standards classification .............................................. 211
6.4.4 EV-specific tariff code setting ...................................................................... 211
6.4.5 Rationalised EV and component standards and regulations ................... 211
6.4.6 Complementing Industry Development ...................................................... 212
6.4.7 Human Resource Development ................................................................... 213
6.4.8 Research and Development ......................................................................... 213
6.4.9 IEC and Demonstration ................................................................................. 214
6.5 Programme Implementation ................................................................................ 214
List of Figures
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Figure 1. Philippine EV Value Chain Components ................................................................. 15
Figure 2. Pillars of local EV diffusion ....................................................................................... 20
Figure 1-1 Global xEV population and sales, 2010-2018 ....................................................... 22
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Figure 1-2 BEV and PHEV historical sales by country ........................................................... 22
Figure 1-3 Sales and growth per region .................................................................................. 23
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Figure 1-4 Global EV stock share by technology .................................................................... 23
Figure 1-5 Sales composition per region................................................................................. 24
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Figure 1-6 China EV population, 2014-2018 ........................................................................... 24

Figure 1-7 Detailed BEV-ICE cost ratio per model ................................................................. 29
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Figure 1-8 Cost vs battery range of U.S. market BEV models ............................................... 30
Figure 1-9 Detailed PHEV-ICE cost ratio per model ............................................................... 31
Figure 1-10 Cost vs battery range of U.S. market PHEV models ........................................... 32
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Figure 1-11 BEV City driving energy economy range ............................................................. 33

Figure 1-12 PHEV e-drive mode energy economy (city driving) ............................................ 35
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Figure 1-13 PHEV ICE mode fuel economy (city driving) ....................................................... 36
Figure 1-14 Electric drive share vs PHEV battery range ........................................................ 36
Figure 1-15 PHEV combined fuel economy ............................................................................ 37
Figure 1-16 Electric vehicle cost breakdown ........................................................................... 38
Figure 1-17 Number of fast chargers installed in leading EV countries by charging standards
.................................................................................................................................................. 43
Figure 1-18 Volume of charge points installed worldwide ...................................................... 43
Figure 1-19 Country shares of publicly accessible slow (left) and fast (right) chargers ......... 44
Figure 1-20 Density of public charge points and EV shares of selected countries ................ 44
Figure 1-21 Density of public fast and slow charge points in selected cities ......................... 45
Figure 1-22 Public and workplace chargepoint breakdown in selected U.S. cities ................ 46
Figure 1-23 Charge energy share projections by charging system type ................................ 47
Figure 1-24 EV sales by supplier, 2010-2017 ......................................................................... 66
Figure 1-25 Global volume of passenger BEV, PHEV sales by make, 2018 ......................... 67
Figure 1-26 EV production vs EV sales in selected countries, 2010-2017............................. 68
Figure 1-27 Battery production by make ................................................................................. 68
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Figure 1-28 Projected EV battery production capacity by manufacturer (left) and country /
region (right) ............................................................................................................................. 69
Figure 1-29 EV vs battery pack production in lead EV countries ........................................... 71
Figure 1-30 Battery cathode material composition ................................................................. 78
Figure 1-31 Cathode material quantity requirement for different battery chemistries ............ 79
Figure 1-32 Country share of mined cobalt supply 2019 ........................................................ 79
Figure 1-33 Country share of global cobalt reserves 2018 ..................................................... 80
Figure 1-34 Cobalt source by mine type 2019 ........................................................................ 80
Figure 1-35 Country share of global nickel supply 2018 ......................................................... 81
Figure 1-36 Country share of global nickel reserve 2019 ....................................................... 82
Figure 1-37 Country shares of global lithium supply 2018 ...................................................... 82
Figure 1-38 Country shares of global lithium reserve 2019 .................................................... 83
Figure 2-1. EV registrations in the Philippines, 2017 .............................................................. 98
Figure 2-2. Philippine EV Value Chain Analysis ................................................................... 111
Figure 2-3. Average government vehicle distribution share by vehicle type, 2010-2013 .... 121
Figure 2-4. Growth projections for the Philippine food delivery sector ................................. 122
Figure 2-5. Philippine motorcycle sales, 2012-2018 ............................................................. 122
Figure 2-6. Motorcycle sales by motorcycle type .................................................................. 123
Figure 2-7. Geographical distribution of existing charging points ......................................... 124
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Figure 2-8. Status of vehicle-related EV standards in the Philippines .................................. 131
Figure 2-9. Status of EV battery-related standards in the Philippines .................................. 133
Figure 2-10. Status of EV charging infrastructure standards in the Philippines ................... 134
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Figure 3-1 Variant preference by income level ..................................................................... 145
Figure 3-2 Baseline Scenario Projections ............................................................................. 146
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Figure 3-3 Tax Incentive Scenario Projections ..................................................................... 146
Figure 3-4 Public Transport and Accessibility Improvement (Baseline Scenario)................ 147
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Figure 3-5 Public Transport and Accessibility Improvement (Tax Incentive Scenario) ........ 147
Figure 3-6 Sales per Variant, 2030 ....................................................................................... 148
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Figure 3-7 Projected composition of new EV sales and EV stock, tax incentive scenario .. 149
Figure 4-1. Comparison of daily demand curves from occasional and frequent charging
scenarios ................................................................................................................................ 153
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Figure 4-2. Projected power demand with and w/o EV charging combined with existing and
committed capacities by region ............................................................................................. 156
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Figure 4-3. Additional reserve requirement for EV charging................................................. 156

Figure 4-4. Combined system and EV charging demand by 2030, Luzon ........................... 157
Figure 4-5. Combined system and EV charging demand by 2030, Visayas ........................ 157
Figure 4-6. Combined system and EV charging demand by 2030, Mindanao ..................... 157
Figure 4-7. Projected power demand from EV charging in 2020, various segments ........... 162
Figure 4-10. Bi-annual hourly demand from combined private and public EV charging,
frequently charging scenario with tax incentive (best-case) ................................................. 166
Figure 5-1. Retail cost comparisons by vehicle variant, 2019 .............................................. 168
Figure 5-2. EURO 6 - EURO 4 ICEV cost multiplier ............................................................. 170
Figure 5-3. ICEV and PHEV cost projections........................................................................ 172
Figure 5-4. Life cycle energy cost NPV ................................................................................. 173
Figure 5-5. Net energy present cost trajectory (real value 2019) ......................................... 173
Figure 5-6. Typical power rates for various charging options ............................................... 175
Figure 5-7. Future energy and fuel unit cost multiplier projections (based on nominal values)
................................................................................................................................................ 176
Figure 5-8. Maintenance cost breakdown of various types of compact sedan, 2019 .......... 177
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Figure 5-9. Life cycle cost of 2019 models (NPV) ................................................................. 178
Figure 5-10. Life cycle cost of 2025 models (NPV) ............................................................... 179
Figure 5-11. Tax revenue share, 2019 Models ..................................................................... 181
Figure 5-12. Compact car tax revenue trend, 2019-2030 (based on nominal values) ......... 181
Figure 5-13. Mid-size SUV tax revenue trend, 2019-2030 (based on nominal values) ....... 181
Figure 5-14. Job generation, 2019 Models ........................................................................... 183
Figure 5-15. Compact car job generation value trend, 2019-2030 (based on nominal values)
................................................................................................................................................ 183
Figure 5-16. Mid-size SUV job generation value trend, 2019-2030 (based on nominal values)
................................................................................................................................................ 183
Figure 5-17. Trade deficit NPV 2019 ..................................................................................... 185
Figure 5-18. Compact car balance of payment trend, 2019-2030 (based on nominal values)
................................................................................................................................................ 185
Figure 5-19. Mid-size SUV balance of payment trend, 2019-2030 (based on nominal values)
................................................................................................................................................ 185
Figure 5-20. Energy security NPV 2019 ................................................................................ 186
Figure 5-21. Energy security NPV multipliers, 2019, 2025, 2030 (based on nominal values)
................................................................................................................................................ 186
Figure 5-22. Health impact NPV 2019................................................................................... 187
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Figure 5-23. Health impact NPV multiplier, 2019, 2025, 2030 (based on nominal values) . 187
Figure 5-24. GHG emission factors of 2019 models ............................................................. 188
Figure 5-25. Philippine power generation mix, 2018............................................................. 188
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Figure 5-26. GHG social cost NPV 2019............................................................................... 189
Figure 5-27. GHG social cost NPV multiplier, 2019, 2025, 2030 (based on nominal values)
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................................................................................................................................................ 189
Figure 5-28. Cost and Benefit weights .................................................................................. 190
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Figure 5-29. Weighted cost and benefit breakdown, 2019 (nominal PHP) .......................... 190
Figure 5-30. Net Cost and Benefit Analysis with ICEVs (Nominal PHP) .............................. 194
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Figure 6-1. Proposed EV programme framework ................................................................. 202

Figure 6-2. Proposed phasing strategy ................................................................................. 216
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List of Tables
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Table 1-1. Electric vehicle stock in ASEAN ............................................................................. 25

Table 1-2 EV deployment pledges worldwide ......................................................................... 26
Table 1-3 Announced sales ban for ICE vehicles ................................................................... 27
Table 1-4 EV adoption targets in selected ASEAN countries ................................................. 27
Table 1-5 BEV-ICE cost ratio range ........................................................................................ 28
Table 1-6 PHEV-ICE cost ratio range ..................................................................................... 30
Table 1-7 Energy economy of battery electric models ............................................................ 34
Table 1-8 Energy economy of selected PHEV models ........................................................... 37
Table 1-9 Lithium-based battery cost and performance ......................................................... 39
Table 1-10 Charging level characteristics ............................................................................... 40
Table 1-11 Summary of charging standards worldwide .......................................................... 41
Table 1-12 Charging standards adopted in key EV countries ................................................ 42
Table 1-13: Estimated (slow and fast) charging points installed worldwide ........................... 42
Table 1-14 Charging infrastructure status and targets in selected ASEAN countries ............ 45
Table 1-15 Proposed / recommended EV charging point densities ....................................... 47
Table 1-16 Charging network development and business models ......................................... 48
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Table 1-17 Summary of policies for increasing EV consumer demand in selected countries in
2019 ......................................................................................................................................... 51
Table 1-18 Overview of financing mechanisms to support EV charging infrastructure in
selected leading EV markets ................................................................................................... 60
Table 1-19 Overview of regulations supporting EV charging infrastructure deployment in
selected leading EV countries ................................................................................................. 63
Table 1-20 Assessing policy actions and EV market share and growth implications ............ 65
Table 1-21 EV industry support programmes in selected countries ....................................... 70
Table 1-22 Summary of industry profile and programmes in Southeast Asia ........................ 75
Table 2-1. Recent e-trike and e-jeepney deployments, as of 31 May 2019 ........................... 98
Table 2-2. E-jeepney models, as of March 2019 .................................................................... 99
Table 2-3. E-trike models, as of March 2019 ........................................................................ 101
Table 2-4. Electric cars, SUVs, vans, and pick-up models, as of March 2019 ..................... 102
Table 2-5. Two-wheeler, three-wheeler, and quadricycle models, as of March 2019 .......... 103
Table 2-6. Metro Manila EV testing summary results ........................................................... 105
Table 2-7. Electric tricycle energy economy ......................................................................... 105
Table 2-8. Electric jeepney energy economy ........................................................................ 105
Table 2-9. Projected local BEV and PHEV cost multipliers .................................................. 106
Table 2-10. Current and planned EV programmes of government agencies ....................... 106
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Table 2-11. Summary of proposed EV-related legislative bills ............................................. 109
Table 2-12. Incentives from growth policy instruments for EV and parts manufacturers ..... 110
Table 2-13. Battery production and/or assembly companies in the Philippines ................... 113
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Table 2-14. Assessment on attractiveness of automotive manufacturing investments ....... 116
Table 2-15. Locally produced OEM cars ............................................................................... 117
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Table 2-16. Locally produced EVs......................................................................................... 117
Table 2-17. Public transport vehicle population data in Metro Manila .................................. 119
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Table 2-18. Total tourism industry vehicle fleet ownership, 2014 ......................................... 120
Table 2-19. Government vehicles registered nationwide, 2015-2017 .................................. 121
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Table 2-20. Charging system suppliers in the Philippines .................................................... 125

Table 2-21. EV workforce requirements ................................................................................ 126
Table 2-22. Vehicle-related EV standards in the Philippines ................................................ 132
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Table 2-23. Battery-related EV standards in the Philippines ................................................ 133

Table 2-24. EV charging infrastructure standards in the Philippines .................................... 134
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Table 3-1. Scenario details .................................................................................................... 143

Table 3-2. Factors affecting vehicle variant and technology choice ..................................... 144
Table 3-3 Nomenclature ........................................................................................................ 144
Table 3-4 Assumed government-mandated adoption rates for different market segments . 148
Table 4-1 Assumed daily kilometers traveled by segment ................................................... 153
Table 4-2 Assumed power ratings for chargers used by variant in the travel and tours,
government, taxi and TNVS segments.................................................................................. 154
Table 4-3 Luzon Power Grid Projections............................................................................... 158
Table 4-4 Visayas Power Grid Projections ............................................................................ 159
Table 4-5 Mindanao Power Grid Projections ........................................................................ 160
Table 5-1. Average importation tariff based on sales of top 5 models by variant ................ 169
Table 5-2. Charging system assumptions and cost details .................................................. 174
Table 5-3. Maintenance costs by vehicle segment ............................................................... 176
Table 6-1. Recommendations and Targeted Impacts ........................................................... 198
Table 6-2. Recommended EV fleet share regulations .......................................................... 203
Table 6-3. Recommended Demand Generation Strategy for Public Transport ................... 203
Table 6-4. EV cost multiplier, after tax incentives are applied .............................................. 204
Table 6-5. Basis of component subsidy ................................................................................ 206
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Table 6-6. Recommended EV charging infrastructure in lead areas .................................... 206
Table 6-7. Recommended charging system regulations ...................................................... 207
Table 6-8. Recommended charging infrastructure incentives .............................................. 208
Table 6-9. Recommended industry positions subject to testing certification ........................ 213
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Executive Summary
Introduction
Global EV Diffusion
1. Global EV stock is rapidly rising, reaching 5.4 million units in 2018, with China and the
U.S. accounting for the bulk of the global market.
2. The share of BEVs relative to PHEVs is increasing.
3. Significant strides in EV adoption have been realised in several ASEAN countries.
4. Countries worldwide including ASEAN have defined EV adoption targets, with others
announcing ICEV sales restrictions, and a few countries planning to completely phase-
out ICEVs in the future.
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EV Cost and Energy Economy
5. While EV prices are decreasing due to projected battery cost reductions and technology
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improvements, EVs continue to be significantly more expensive than ICEVs. Price
difference varies significantly across variants. Larger vehicle variants of EVs vs. ICEVs
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have lower cost differences. For example, BEV mid-size cars are only 1.01 – 1.54 times
more expensive than ICEV mid-size cars. Moreover, PHEV MPVs are only 1.02 – 1.17
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times more expensive than ICEV MPVs. This report provides detailed BEV-ICEV cost
ratio ranges (section 1.3).
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6. Energy economy of BEVs and PHEVs vary significantly across variants; however,
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provides significant energy cost savings in all cases. This report provides the range of
BEV and PHEV fuel economy for various variants (section 1.3).
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7. In contrast to ICEVs, EV drives could be more efficient in slow-moving conditions, which

is favourable in congested areas, e.g. in Metro Manila.
State and Technology Development of EV Batteries
8. Batteries represent about 50% of EV parts costs and could account for a higher share
depending on battery range. While battery cost is expected to drop, projections indicate
that battery share of the vehicle cost would remain significant. Optimism on battery price
reductions stems from projected battery technology developments and increasing
production scales. By 2030, battery price reduction varies from 33% to 61%.
9. Lithium batteries dominate the EV industry, with other chemistries developed over time.
10. Lithium battery chemistry developments are expected to gain further popularity in the
near-term. In the medium term, higher capacity electrodes and increases in cell voltages
are expected, while solid-state electrolytes could be introduced. Lithium-magnesium
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battery research has also emerged and signals potential; however, its commercialization
is not expected in the medium-term. Battery technology developments are expected to
increase EV efficiencies from 6% to 13% by 2030 based on various estimates.
State and Developments on Charging Systems
11. Charging systems could be classified into 3 levels. Level 1 provides a maximum
charging rate of 2kW. Level 2 allows 3 – 20 kW. Level 3 AC systems could allow up to
50 kW, while Level 3 DC systems could reach up to 240 kW charging. Future systems
are expected to be higher.
12. The market is governed by four main charging standards: CHAdeMO, GBT, CCS, and
Tesla. Each dominate specific countries. GBT currently dominates slow- and fast-
charger populations, with 127,434 units; followed by CHAdeMO, with 16,639 units; and
Tesla and CCS, respectively with 8,496 and 7,000 units. GBT chargers are nearly
exclusively found in China. The bulk of chargers deployed worldwide are in China,
Japan, U.S., and Germany.
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13. Share of fast and slow chargers vary across cities. Data in the U.S., Europe, and China
indicates that the bulk of charged power was generated through Level 1 and Level 2
chargers. However, projections indicate that fast chargers will be more significant in
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2030.
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14. Ideal number of charging points to support EV adoption remains to be universally
agreed upon, with recommendations ranging from 0.04 to 0.125 vehicles per public
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charging point. Expert institutions however, agree that more fast charging points are
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needed in the initial phase of diffusion and that workplace charging availability would be
proportional to the scale of EV adoption.
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15. Various business models have been globally adopted in the delivery of charging
services, which includes: (i) EV sales and charging system installation; (ii) EV sales and
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access to charging facility; (iii) EV leasing or sales and battery rental or swapping
service; (iv) public charging points; and (v) EV sharing programme. Model descriptions
including stakeholders and sample cases are discussed in section 1.5 (Table 1-16).
Global EV Policies, Incentives, and Regulations
16. Developing EV markets specifically involves regulatory and fiscal policy instruments
focused on: (i) promoting demand and (ii) establishing charging infrastructure.
17. Key strategies drawn from global EV diffusion experiences include:

- Acquisition support as a necessary transitory step
- Increasing financial incentives with EV performance
- Prioritising incentives for public transport and commercial vehicles
- More operational measures and incentives
- Equal focus on EV charging infrastructure
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18. Leading EV governments have implemented regulations and devised various financing
mechanisms including subsidies, tax incentives, and co-investment schemes with the
private sector to support charging infrastructure development.
EV Supply Chain and Industry Trends
19. EVs ae rapidly changing the automotive industry affecting parts manufacturing and
supply and changing industry positionings of firms and countries.
20. Recent EV production boom in China and incentives provided for locally-made higher-
range EVs has resulted in the global leadership of Chinese EV battery production.
Projections indicate that Chinese companies are expected to further its position as the
leading EV battery producer in terms of production capacity.
21. Market dominance of China is attributed to its aggressive demand creation, charging
infrastructure development, and broad EV industry local-oriented policy framework.
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22. Other country strategies include: provision of R&D funding; soft loan programmes;
investment aid and/or matching grants; production subsidies; government EV supply bid
calls and other demand generation programmes; tax-free importation of production
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equipment, materials, and inputs; real estate tax incentives; corporate tax incentives;
and additional subsidies for vehicles with locally-made batteries.
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23. R&D grants have mostly focused on: battery technology development; standards, and
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testing protocols development particularly in cold weather; new materials for body and
component weight reduction; V2G systems; and wireless charging and power systems
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modelling.
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Battery Raw Material Supply Chain

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24. Dependence on NMC and NCA batteries have pressured the global cobalt and nickel
supply and provides relevant countries with the competitive advantage.
25. Congo is the main source of mined cobalt supply in 2019, with the Philippines
representing 3% of its share. The Philippines hosts 4% of global cobalt reserves. China
has the largest cobalt refining capacity worldwide.
26. While nickel is significantly more abundant and less expensive than cobalt, future supply
gaps are expected. Investments for HPAL plants processing are significant and would
only be viable provided that significant demand is secured in the long-term. Philippines
hosts 5% of global nickel reserves stored as laterite ores.
27. Increased global demand for lithium has been projected to result in short-term
oversupply, which could bring down commodities. Projections are however, highly
contingent to the direction of global EV supply.
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EV in the Philippines
Local EV stock and Models Available
28. Local EV stock is mostly dominated by the electric tricycle (56%) and electric motorcycle
(38%) markets.
29. Following the PUV Modernization Programme and the e-tricycle donations of the DOE,
e-tricycles and e-jeepneys have contributed to the national EV stock significantly,
respectively totaling to about 1,151 and 252, as of May 2019. Significant additions are
expected once DOE fully deploys the 3,000 units produced through the ADB-funded
project.
30. Seventeen e-jeepney models are in the market, predominantly fitted with lithium-ion
batteries, with capacities ranging from 7.2 – 23.8 kWh, claimed ranged between 30 –
100 km, and mostly charged through Level 1 or Level 2 systems.
LY
31. Twenty-one e-tricycle models are in the market, fitted with either lead acid or lithium-ion
batteries, ranging from 1.54 – 7.20 kWh and mostly charged through Level 1 systems.
N
32. Seven BEV and four PHEV models have been available or announced for local
launching.
O
33. Assumed to be completely imported from China, 27 electric two-wheelers, 24 electric

T
three-wheelers, and 2 electric four-wheeler personal mobility vehicle models are in the
market.
AF
R
Electric Vehicle Performance (Range and Energy Economy) and Cost
34. Testing results indicate that BEVs and PHEVs locally operated provide slightly higher
D
fuel economy compared to the fuel economy indicated in the USEPA database. Results
could be attributed to lower vehicle drag and in contrast to ICEVs, efficiency of EVs
remain high in lower-speed ranges.
35. Fuel economies for e-tricycles, Class 1 e-jeepneys, and Class 2 e-jeepneys respectively
range from 9 – 28.9 km/kWh; 4.06 – 6.94 km/kWh; and 2.08 – 3.26 km/kWh.
36. This report provides the cost multipliers of EVs relative to ICEVs in the country (Table 2-
9).
EV-Related Government Initiatives
37. EV interventions have been spearheaded by the DOE, DOTr, DTI, and DENR, which
have involved: EV deployment for public transport, charging infrastructure development,
IEC programmes, fiscal incentives and industry development support, and capacity
development.
14
38. Currently, three key Senate Bills, providing fiscal and non-fiscal incentives to potential
EV end-users are pending Congress approval.
39. Current legislations cover the EV industry which could be tapped for incentives.
Local EV Industry
40. Assessment of the local EV industry was framed according to the key components of
the EV value chain.
Vehicle Systems Systems Marketing Vehicle

Parts and Integration and
Design and and and Sales Use
Components Final
Developmen Modules
t Assembly
Figure 1. Philippine EV Value Chain Components
(Note: Full value chain assessment framework, provided in Figure 2-2)
LY
41. Local design and development capacity is not critical for OEC companies since the
N
required process is normally conducted in-house or by other foreign subsidiaries. The
country could capitalize on its large IT and software base to become the hub for
O
automotive software and firmware design and development. However, necessary
interventions are needed for skills-upgrading.
T
42. Local battery manufacturing industry is limited to lead acid battery production and
AF
battery module assembly. Scale of investment for lithium battery production needs to be
assured to support locally-made EV batteries.
R
43. The country is capable of producing EV body systems and drive train components.
D
However, capability of the local industry to tap on transmission systems, automotive

stamping, and injection modeling capabilities of Tier 1 parts is unclear. The local
industry could depend on local Tier 2 parts supplies mainly consisting of metal working
businesses, seat and trim companies, rubber manufacturers, plastic producers, and
electrical parts producers. Capacities in R&D, production system, and human resource
need to be developed.
44. Local e-jeepney manufacturers are having difficulty responding quickly to purchase
orders due to limited operational funds, which is greatly affected by the slow processing
of modern jeepney bank loans and payments.
45. No electric two- and three-wheelers locally produced due to perceived stiff competition
from imported models mostly sourced from China. However, Kymco plans to establish
an e-scooter production plant in the country.
46. EV diffusion requires aggressive knowledge creation, marketing, and sales programmes
programmed into a well-planned and phased-based adoption strategy starting in
15
selected pilot areas and would be trickled down to larger cities, eventually upscaled
nationwide.
47. Local sector identified that while financing support could be offered, uncertainties
pertaining to technological familiarity and infrastructure readiness needs to be managed.
Insurance companies raised the need to cooperate in assessing the applicability of
current policy provisions and identifying additional provisions required for EVs.
48. High-potential EV market segments in the country include: public transport, tourism
industry, government, the logistics industry, and the two- and three-wheeler market. For
the public transport, government, and tourism sectors, EV diffusion could easily be
determined through appropriate regulations, while the logistics and two- and three-
wheeler markets are rapidly growing. Detailed discussions are provided in section 2.4.5.
49. EV maintenance and repair capacity is limited. OEM companies are expected to ensure
the supply of replacement parts. Lack of prompt availability was an identified barrier to
the operations of EV fleet companies. Limited demand and operating funds are also
major hindrances in stocking up on replacement parts.
LY
50. Based on consultations with public transport EV players, (lack of) charging stations are
not identified as an issue to-date as vehicles are either charged in-house or drained
N
batteries are swapped by operators or a third-party service provider. Equipment used in
O
charging operations have been limited to Level 1 and Level 2 systems.
51. Currently, no public slow charging points is available, while fast charging points are
T
limited. Based on industry interviews, installations of 200 stations is expected.

AF
52. Only KEA / Eclimo and CHRG Inc. locally assemble and/or produce chargers, which are
mostly engaged in the supply of lower-capacity units. Local production of charging
R
points is on a made-to-order basis.

D
Human Resource Requirement
53. EV diffusion would open occupational positions covering: (i) EV Design and
Development; (ii) Parts and Vehicle Manufacturing; (iii) Vehicle Operations,
Maintenance, and Repair; (iv) Charging System Assembly and Installation; (v) Charging
System Operation; (vi) Sales and Marketing; (vii) Regulations; and (viii) Emergency
Response and Recovery. Corresponding capacity building programmes would need to
be introduced. Detailed recommendations are provided in Table 2-21.
54. Currently, filling up management, engineering, and technician positions in the

automotive industry has been challenging due to skills and knowledge mismatch, which
would need to be addressed.
55. Less direct employment is expected from EV manufacturing and maintenance compared
to ICEVs. Impacts to ICEV job losses would be minimal as majority of parts produced
locally overlaps with EV requirements. To note, the value of EVs are mostly
16
concentrated on batteries and power electronics. Thus, mechanisms to attract investors
would need to be introduced to lessen impacts on maintenance job losses. Additional
public spending emanating from EV operational savings is expected to generate jobs in
other sectors. Growth of EVs also provides significant opportunities for software and
smart applications development, which represents a large share of the country
workforce. Addressing the competency gaps of the massive IT workforce, among
others, is needed to develop the country as a hub for automotive software and mobility
systems development.
EV Standards
56. Currently, the DTI-BPS has adopted 45 EV-related standards, which remain voluntary
until a Department Order or legal instrument requiring adoption is issued.
57. Based on key components of EV-related standards of the UNECE Guidelines including
additional EV-related areas, the extent of standards adopted in the country involves
(Figure 2-8):
LY
- voluntary adoption of provisions relating to electrical safety and operating
characteristics;
- drive train provisions are limited to safety;
N
- driver-user information provisions are limited to instrumentation;
- range and energy consumption are limited to testing protocols
O
- no standards on recycling and re-use and vehicle labeling have been adopted.
T
58. On battery-related standards, the country has introduced standard testing protocols on
AF
battery performance and durability. However, no standards have been defined for EV
battery recycling and re-use.
R
59. On charging infrastructure, the country has adopted fairly comprehensive voluntary
standards on on-board and off-board charging equipment and practices. However,
D
regulations on wireless charging and vehicles as electricity supply have to be defined.
60. While standards in selected areas exist, actual enforcement remains unclear in the
absence of adopting implementation mechanisms, testing and monitoring equipment
and local testing and monitoring capacity.
61. Minimum thresholds on standards pertaining to energy economy, vehicle performance,

and durability would need to be introduced to ensure sustainability soundness and
address concerns on the financing support for vehicles.
Electric Vehicle Demand Projections
62. EVs could diffuse mainly through the household market and the commercial (including
government vehicles) market.
17
Household Vehicle Choice Factors and Market Potential
63. Significant factors affecting vehicle variant choice of households are energy cost;
vehicle price and the combined effects of family size and charging cost; household
income and energy cost; and household income and vehicle price.
64. For technology choice (i.e. ICEV, PHEV, and BEV), the most significant factor is
refueling / charging cost. Higher-income households are also more conscious of
potential savings from fuel / charging expenditures, which is reflective of higher financial
literacies. While vehicle price had a lower impact than energy cost on technology
choice, vehicle price is expected to pose the most significant impact on technology
diffusion when factoring in the capacity to pay of most respondents.
65. Impacts of fringe benefits (i.e. reduced registration requirements, reserved parking
spaces, number coding exemptions for EVs) are overcome by the significance of energy
and vehicle costs.
66. Without incentives, annual EV sales would be slow. However, with tax incentives, PHEV
LY
sales could increase up to three-fold, while BEV sales could increase up to six-fold by
2040. N
67. Public transport and accessibility improvements however would reduce private vehicle
demand, which translates to nearly 40% reduction of EV sales by 2030.
O
Commercial and Government Vehicles

T
68. Government-mandated EV adoption rates were recommended for different market

AF
segments. For commercial vehicles, annual 1% increases in adoption rate until 5% by

2025 is recommended. For government vehicles, a 5% adoption rate is recommended
beginning 2020. For PUVs, annual 2% increases in adoption rate is recommended
R
beginning 2021.
D
Best-Case EV Adoption Projection
69. The best-case scenario for the country requires introduction of tariffs, excise tax
incentives, and minimum thresholds for EV adoption in corporate, government, and
public transport fleets. Total realistic EVs by 2030 is estimated to be about 300,000
units.
EV Charging Impacts to the Power Grid
70. Under a best-case scenario, the corresponding EV power demand would not threaten
the power grid and only about 5.3% of projected system reserves and about 1.5% each
for Visayas and Mindanao would be consumed.
71. To maintain ideal power reserves for Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, 25.43MW,
4.44MW, and 5.46MW by 2030 are needed.
18
Life Cycle Cost and Cost-Benefit Analysis
72. Reduced tariffs of ICEVs from free trade agreements further increases EV costs
73. Purchase price parity between EVs and ICEVs may not be immediately expected across
all vehicle variants. Shifting however, to EURO 6 marginally improves the viability of
EVs in diesel-dominated segments.
74. Life-cycle cost of EVs for car and MPV segments are currently competitive compared to
ICEVs
75. Diesel-dominated vehicle segments (e.g. pick-ups, SUVs, and vans) have lower life
cycle costs relative to EVs. Projected battery cost reductions and EV efficiency
improvements would allow ownership costs of 2025 BEV models to be lower compared
to ICEV models. PHEV units however, would remain to have higher life cycle costs
unless excise taxes are removed.
LY
76. Tax revenue generation for the entire life cycle of ICEVs, based on its current supply
and production, is comparable with imported PHEVs, however, higher than imported
BEVs.
N
O
77. Job generation impacts of ICEVs based on current supply is higher compared to
imported BEVs and PHEVs. Locally produced EVs however is expected to provide job
generation impacts comparable to ICEVs.
T
AF
78. EVs pose significant health, GHG social cost, and energy security risk benefits.
79. Based on the weighted cost and benefit analysis of 2019 models, imported BEVs and
R
PHEVs have negative net benefits compared to ICEVs. BEVs and PHEVs need to be
locally produced including batteries and other major parts to allow positive impacts.
D
80. Projected battery price reductions and performance improvements are expected to
improve cost-benefit performance. While BEVs therefore have lower net social benefits
compared to PHEVs currently, net benefits from BEVs is expected to improve faster due
to its larger share of batteries in its cost structure.
Recommendations
81. Recommendations are guided based on four pillars that were drawn from diffusion
interventions of leading EV countries and were framed for the local context.
19
Demand EV Cost
Generation Reduction
Charging Industry
Infrastructure Development
Development
LY
Figure 2. Pillars of local EV diffusion
N
O
82. Agencies to spearhead the identified pillars were identified as:
- DOTr: Demand Generation
T
- DOE: Charging Infrastructure Development

- DTI in coordination with DOF, DENR, and TESDA: Industry Development and
AF
EV Cost Reduction
R
83. For demand generation interventions, this report specified:

- Recommended EV-mandated shares for identified corporate fleets
D
- Recommended EV-mandated shares including specified supporting regulations

pertaining to the age limit and franchise rules for each public transport segment
- Recommended EV-mandated shares for government vehicles
- Potential EV lead areas
- Supporting regulations to obtain EV fringe benefits
84. For EV cost reduction interventions, this report recommended:

- Removal of importation tariffs for BEVs and PHEVs
- Removal of excise taxes for PHEVs
- Selective VAT exemption for mandated corporate and public transport fleet
adoptions
- Crafting and introduction of an Eco-PUV programme focuses on EVs including
additional subsidies for locally-produced batteries and other major parts
85. For EV charging infrastructure development interventions, this report identified and
discussed its recommendations, including the:
20
- Crafting and implementation of EV charging infrastructure masterplan that would
designate lead areas where charging regulations would initially be introduced
- Crafting and implementation of EV charging infrastructure regulations, which this
report further specified for new and old facility types including potential impacts
- Specific charging infrastructure incentives per facility type
- Introduction of VAT-exemption for EV charging equipment and importation tariff
exemption for fast chargers beyond 20kW
- Formulation of charging power rate rules and special power rates excluding
charging power from paying subsidy shares, among others
- Establishment of EV charging point installation standards, regulations, and local
permitting processes
- Adoption of charging protocols based on market forces
86. For industry development, this report recommended:

- Introduction of rationalized and competitive EV assembly and parts production
incentives
- Introduction of local EV industry fund to provide soft loans
- Harmonisation of vehicle classification standards across agencies, which is
LY
ongoing
- Introduction of EV-specific tariff code, which has been claimed by the Tariff
Commission to be completed
N
- Rationalisation and developing capacities to implement EV and component
O
standards
- Development and implementation of a roadmap for EV battery local production
- Development and implementation of an industry roadmap on Transport and
T
Auto-Informatics
AF
- Crafting and implementation of a human resource development strategy for the

EV industry
- Development and support for a R&D roadmap
R
- Implementation of a strategic IEC programme for EVs, including setting lead EV

areas
D
87. This report concluded with a formulated workplan for the implementation of programmes
laid out in the short- (2020-2023), medium (2024-2027), and long-term (2028-onwards).
21
1 Electric Vehicles – A Global Overview
1.1 Current Vehicle Stock and Growth
The number of passenger electric vehicles sold globally has been rapidly increasing in the
past recent years. This has been evident when the global stock hit 1 million in 2015, 2 million
in 2016, and even surpassed 3 million units in 2017 (IEA, 2018a; EV Volumes, 2018). In
2018, the global electric vehicle fleet, including light vehicles, reached 5.4 million and 2.1
million units were sold, which is a 64150% increase from 2017 sales.
6000.00
5000.00
4000.00
3000.00
LY
2000.00
1000.00
N
0.00
O
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Global population Global annual sales

T
AF
Figure 1-1 Global xEV1 population and sales, 2010-2018

Source: Own illustration, data taken from IEA (2018a) and EV Volumes (2018)
R
D
Figure 1-2 BEV and PHEV historical sales by country

Source: EV Volumes (2018)
1
Includes PHEVs, BEVs, and HEVs
22
Figure 1-2 highlights that the global EV sales growth has mostly been fueled by the demand
from China and partly the United States. Other countries in Europe and East Asia also
accounted for a fair share of the sales over the years. Figure 1-3 further indicates that the
growth in sales from 2017 to 2018 was highest in China and the United States, while
moderate growth was observed in Europe. Interestingly, negative growth in sales was
observed in Japan. These trends are significantly influenced by policy directions and
government support, which will be tackled in more detail in the succeeding sections.
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Japan -5%
Other 87%
USA 79%
Europe 34%
LY
China 78%
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

N
2017 2018 % Growth
O
Figure 1-3 Sales and growth per region

Source: Own illustration, data taken from EV Volumes (2018)
T
AF
1.4 7.00%
Electric car stock
1.2 6.00%
Stock share
1 5.00%
(millions)
0.8 4.00%
R
0.6 3.00%
0.4 2.00%
D
0.2 1.00%
0 0.00%
BEV PHEV Stock share
Figure 1-4 Global EV stock share by technology

Source: IEA, 2018a, p. 19
Figure 1-4 indicates that the electric vehicles in China, France, Norway, and others
unspecified are predominantly BEVs, while in the United States, PHEVs and BEVs account
for nearly equal shares. In contrast, PHEVs are dominant in Japan, Germany, Netherlands,
Sweden, and the United Kingdom.
The continued dominance of BEVs is expected to be further reinforced by the BEV sales in
China, while BEV and PHEV sales in Europe, USA, and Japan are only almost at parity
23
(Figure 1-5). Moreover, in 2018, BEV sales surpassed PHEV sales in Europe (van den
Steen, 2018), which is most likely attributable to the improved accessibility to charging points
throughout the region.
120
100
80
%
60
40
20
0
China Europe USA Japan ROW
HEV PHEV BEV
LY
Figure 1-5 Sales composition per region
Source: Own illustration, data taken from EV Volumes (2018)
N
A more detailed look at China EV sales indicates that the growth has mostly been driven by
O
passenger vehicles although significant increases in commercial EVs has also been
observed (Figure 1-6).
T
1,200,000
AF
1,000,000
R
800,000
D
600,000
400,000
200,000
-
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 forecast
passenger cars and LCVs medium and heavy commercial vehicles
Figure 1-6 China EV population, 2014-2018

Source: IEA (2018a)
Based on the Global IEA 2018 report, China hosts the highest number of electric buses,
totaling 370,000 in 2017, and minibuses, which has largely been supported by government
subsidies since 2009. The uptake of electric buses in China dwarfs the 2,100 electric buses
currently operating in Europe, Japan, and the United States. Moreover, in Korea, Seoul
(Korea Bizwire, 2018), Jeju, and Daejeon (Korea Times, 2018) have introduced electric
24
buses for public transport use, with Seoul aiming to fully refleet all units to electric drives by
2030 (Manthey, 2018a).
In contrast, Japan is taking a more conservative approach on its technological requirements

wherein the current system is mostly limited to hybrids. Japanese vehicle companies
including Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus Corporation, Isuzu Motors, Nissan Motor Co. Ltd.,
and Hino are undertaking proactive efforts in order to participate in the production of electric
buses and trucks (Japan Times, 2018a). To note, an electric bus model based on the Nissan
Leaf platform is undergoing testing (Manthey, 2018b). The Japanese Government thus,
plans to launch electric bus services in tourist and residence areas with graying populations
(Japan Times, 2018b).
The state of electric vehicle adoption in ASEAN countries is of particular interest for the
Philippines (Table 1-1).
Table 1-1. Electric vehicle stock in ASEAN

Country Electric Vehicle Stock Reference Year Source
▪ ~1,000 electric cars
LY
Indonesia 2017 Solidiance (2018)
▪ ~3,000 electric two-wheelers
▪ 380 PHEV cars and LDVs
N
▪ 701 BEV cars and LDVs
Land Transport
Singapore ▪ 32,545 HEV cars and LDVs 2018
O
Authority (2018)
▪ 4 BEV buses
▪ 23 HEV buses
T
▪ 122,631 HEVs and PHEVs

Thailand 2018 EVAT (2016)
▪ 1,454 BEVs
AF
▪ 1,086 electric cars 2015 Nguyen and Nguyen

Vietnam
▪ 150,000 electric two-wheelers 2013 (2015)
R
Based on limited data available on electric vehicle stock and growth in the region, Thailand
leads in the number of electric four wheelers. The bulk of BEVs however in Thailand is
D
assumed to be represented by motorcycles, while cars, buses, three-wheelers, and other

commercial vehicles account for a smaller share (Panyaarvudh, 2018). In terms of the
composition of sales in Thailand, 41.75% of hybrid sales are plug-ins in 2018 (Maikaew,
2018), which suggests the rate of penetration of HEVs relative to PHEVs in Table 1-1.
In Singapore, all PHEV electric cars are for private use, while taxi services are partly BEVs.
HEVs expectedly dominate electric drive shares due to charging station limitations. For
public transport, the country is also considering the adoption of BEVs and HEVs having
piloted electric and hybrid drives.
25
1.2 EV Adoption Targets and Direction
Governments worldwide have pledged EV adoption targets in an effort to decarbonise the

power sector as part of their climate goals. The EV30@30 campaign launched in 2017 calls
on member countries, including Canada, China, Finland, France, India, Mexico, Norway, and
Sweden to reach 30% sales share of EVs, which includes LDVs, LCVs, buses, and trucks by
2030. Table 1-2 summarises EV adoption targets.
Table 1-2 EV deployment pledges worldwide

Country / Region EV Target or Objective
- 10% zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales by 2025, 30% by 2030, and
100% by 2040 (Clean Energy Canada, 2019)
Canada
- 75% of new LDVs will be HEVs, PHEVs or BEVs from 2019
- 80% of government fleet procured are ZEVs
- 5M EVs by 2020, including 4.6 million PLDVs, 0.2 million buses and 0.2
China
million trucks
European Union - 15% sales of electric cars and plug-in hybrids by 2025; 30% by 2030
LY
Finland - 250,000 EVs by 2030
- Full electrification of new buses by 2025
France
N
- All electric cars nationwide by 2040 (Davies, 2017)
O
- 30% electric sales by 2030
India
- 100% BEV sales for urban buses by 2030
T
Ireland - 500,000 EVs and 100% EV sales by 2030

AF
Japan - 20-30% electric vehicle sales by 2030

Mexico - 30% electric car sales by 2030
- 10% electric car market share by 2020
R
- 100% EV sales by PLDVs by 2030

Netherlands
D
- 100% electric public bus sales by 2025

- 100% public bus stock by 2030
New Zealand - 64,000 EVs by 2021
- 100% EV sales of PLDVs, LCVs and urban buses by 2025
Norway - 75% EV sales in long-distance buses
- 50% in trucks by 2030
Korea - 200,000 EVs of PLDVs by 2020
Slovenia - 100% electric sales by 2030
Sweden - 30% electric car sales by 2030
United Kingdom - 396,000 to 431,000 E-cars by 2020

- 20% market share target for electric passenger vehicles by 2020, 50%
United States
by 2025
Source: IEA (2018a, p. 34-35), with additional information cited
26
The deployment targets outlined in Table 1-2 are complemented by commitments to
decrease the sale of new internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) (Table 1-3). Two
interventions have been proposed in selected countries: (1) vehicle ban, which aims to halt
ICEV registration and sales, and (2) access restrictions in defined areas depending on the
emission performance of vehicles (C40, 2017).
Table 1-3 Announced sales ban for ICE vehicles

Country 2025 2030 2032 2040 2045
France
Ireland
Netherlands
Norway
Scotland
Slovenia
LY
Sri Lanka
Sweden
N
United Kingdom
Legend:
O
ICE sales ban or 100% EV sales target Fleet without ICEs
Source: IEA (2018a, p. 36)
T
AF
EV targets and growth developments have also been collated to provide a closer look at the
directions and trends within the region (Table 1-4).
R
Table 1-4 EV adoption targets in selected ASEAN countries

D
Country Description Date announced

2.1 million motorcycles and
Indonesia January 2019
2,200 electric cars by 2025
Malaysia 1.2 million electric vehicles by 2036 March 2016
1,000 BEVs by 2020 June 2016
Singapore
800 BEV taxis by 2022 October 2018
100,000 electric cars,
Thailand 100,000 electric motorcycles, and August 2017
2,000 electric buses by 2030
Vietnam 100,000 electric cars by 2020 August 2013
Source: Partnership on Sustainable Low Carbon Transport (2019, p. 5, 11-13, 16)
1.3 EV Cost and Performance
Table 1-5 summarises the cost-ratio of BEVs with comparable conventional vehicle models,
as derived from the U.S. Vehicle Market Database (Teoalida, 2019).
27
Table 1-5 BEV-ICE cost ratio range
Vehicle Class BEV-ICE Cost ratio range
Mini-compact cars 1.61 to 1.63
Sub-compact cars 1.08 to 1.57
Compact cars 1.33 to 1.54
Midsize cars 1.01 to 1.54
Crossover / compact SUVs 1.52 to 1.87
Midsize SUVs 1.34 to 1.80
Source: Own work, calculations derived from Teoalida (2019)
It is interesting to note that in some vehicle segments, the price difference of BEVs with ICEs
are as low as 1% to 8%. This is however, an exception rather than a norm and is traced to
premium vehicle models (Figure 1-7).
LY
N
O
T
AF
R
D
28
USD
100,000.00
120,000.00
140,000.00
160,000.00
20,000.00
40,000.00
80,000.00
60,000.00
0.00
FIAT 500e 2019
FIAT 500e 2018
Mitsubishi i-MIEV
Mini Compact
BMW i3 120 AH
cars
BMW i3s 120 AH
BMW i3 94 AH
Subcompact
BMW i3s 94 AH
Chevrolet Spark EV
Ford Focus
Volkswagen e-Golf SE 2019
Volkswagen e-Golf SE 2018
Volkswagen e-Golf SEL Premium 2019
cars Compact
D Volkswagen e-Golf SEL Premium 2018
Honda Clarity 2019
Honda Clarity 2018
Hyundai IONIQ HB 2019
R Hyundai IONIQ HB 2018
Hyundai IONIQ limited HB 2019
Hyundai IONIQ limited HB 2018
Nissan Leaf S HB 2019
Nissan Leaf S HB 2018
AF
Price (USD)
Nissan Leaf SL HB 2019
Nissan Leaf SL HB 2018
29
T Nissan Leaf SV HB 2019
Nissan Leaf SV HB 2018
Chevrolet Bolt Wagon LT
Midsize cars
O
Chevrolet Bolt Wagon Premier
Chevrolet Bolt HB LT
Chevrolet Bolt HB Premier
N
TESLA Model 3 Performance AWD…
BEV-ICE cost ratio
TESLA Model 3 Performance AWD…

TESLA Model 3 Long Range AWD 2019
Figure 1-7 Detailed BEV-ICE cost ratio per model
TESLA Model 3 Long Range AWD 2018

Source: Own work, data calculated from Teoalida (2019)
LY
TESLA Mid-range RWD 2019
TESLA Mid-range RWD 2018
Hyundai Kona Limited FWD
Hyundai Kona SEL FWD
Hyundai Kona Ultimate FWD
Jaguar I-Pace 1st edition AWD
Jaguar I-Pace HSE AWD
Crossover
Jaguar I-Pace S AWD

Jaguar I-Pace SE AWD
TESLA Model X 100D 2019
TESLA Model X 100D 2018
TESLA Model X 750 AWD 2019
TESLA Model X 750 AWD 2018
TESLA Model X P100D AWD 2019
Midsize SUV
TESLA Model X P100D AWD 2018

0
1
2
1.5
2.5
0.5
BEV-ICE cost ratio

As shown in Figure 1-7, the retail price of premium car models are only slightly higher than
comparable ICE counterparts despite having bigger batteries compared to non-premium
models. This could be attributed to the higher base price of their comparable conventional
models. The cost of BEV SUVs however, are generally higher compared to conventional
units.
Moreover, Figure 1-8 shows that the range of BEV models in the U.S. market varies
between 59 kms to 310 kms, with SUVs generally fitted with bigger batteries as these are
normally used for long-distance driving. Premium car models also tend to have longer
ranges than their non-premium equivalents.
400
350
Battery Range (km)
300
250
200
LY
150
100
50
N
0
O
10,000 30,000 50,000 70,000 90,000 110,000 130,000 150,000
MSRP (USD)
Non Premium Mini Cars Non Premium Mid-Size Cars
T
Non Premium Crossover/Compact SUV Premium Mid-Size SUV

AF
Premium Mini Cars Premium Mid-Size Cars

Premium Crossover/Compact SUV Models
*Note: circle sizes are proportional to the price difference with comparable ICE models
R
Figure 1-8 Cost vs battery range of U.S. market BEV models

Source: Own work, data derived from Teoalida (2019)
D
For PHEVs, Table 1-6 summarises the cost ratio of PHEVs with comparable conventional
vehicle models, as derived from the U.S. Vehicle Market Database (Teoalida, 2019). Also for
similar reasons as in the case of BEVs, PHEV prices are comparable to their ICE
counterparts (Figure 1-9).
Table 1-6 PHEV-ICE cost ratio range

Vehicle Class PHEV-ICE cost ratio
Sub-compact cars 1.12 to 1.26
Compact cars 1.05 to 1.71
Midsize cars 1.07 to 1.76
Full Size cars 1.00 to 1.39
MPVs 1.02 to 1.17
Crossover / Compact SUVs 1.15 to 1.33
Midsize SUVs 1.03 to 1.25
Source: Own work, calculations derived from Teoalida (2019)
30
USD
0.00
50,000.00
100,000.00
150,000.00
200,000.00
250,000.00
BMW i3 120 AH
BMW i3s 120 AH
Sub-
BMW i3 94 AH
compact
BMW i3s 94 AH
Audi A3 Sportback 1.4 TFSI PHEV Premium
Audi A3 Sportback 1.4 TFSI PHEV Premium+
Audi A3 Sportback 1.4 TFSI PHEV Prestige
Audi A3 Sportback 1.4 TFSI PHEV Tech Premium
Audi A3 Sportback 1.4 TFSI PHEV Tech Premium+
Mercedes Benz C350E
BMW i8 Coupe
Compact
Chevrolet Volt HB LT Specs 2019
Chevrolet Volt HB LT Specs 2018
Chevrolet Volt HB Premier Specs 2019
Chevrolet Volt HB Premier Specs 2018
Hyundai IONIQ PHEV HB 2019
Hyundai IONIQ PHEV HB 2018
Hyundai IONIQ PHEV Limited HB 2019
Hyundai IONIQ PHEV Limited HB 2018
Ford Fusion Energi Titanium FWD 2019
Ford Fusion Energi Titanium FWD 2018
Ford Fusion Energi Platinum FWD
Ford Fusion Energi SE FWD
Honda Clarity PHEV sedan 2019
Honda Clarity PHEV sedan 2018
D Honda Clarity PHEV Touring Sedan 2019
Honda Clarity PHEV Touring Sedan 2018
Hyundai Sonata Hybrid 2.0L 2019
Midsize cars
Hyundai Sonata Hybrid 2.0L 2018
Hyundai Sonata Hybrid Limited 2.0L
R Kia Optima PHEV EX Automatic 2019
Kia Optima PHEV EX Automatic 2018
Toyota Prius Advanced 2019
Toyota Prius Advanced 2018
Toyota Prius Plus 2019
Toyota Prius Plus 2018
Toyota Prius Premium 2019
Toyota Prius Premium 2018
Price (USD)
BMW 7 series 740e xDrive 2019
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BMW 3 series 330e
BMW 5 series 530e 2019
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BMW 5 series 530e 2018
T
Porsche Panamera 4 E-Hybrid AWD
Porsche Panamera Executive E-Hybrid AWD
Porsche Panamera Turbo S E-Hybrid AWD
O
Porsche Panamera Turbo S Executive
Full size sedan
Porsche Panamera 4 E-Hybrid Sport Turismo

Porsche Panamera Turbo S E-Hybrid Sport Turismo
Cadillac CT6 - Sedan 2.0
Volvo S90 T8 eAWD Inscription 2019
N
Volvo S90 T8 eAWD Inscription 2018
Volvo S90 T8 eAWD Momentum 2019
PHEV-ICE cost ratio
Volvo S90 T8 eAWD Momentum 2018

Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid Limited 2019
Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid Limited 2018
Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid Touring L 2019
Figure 1-9 Detailed PHEV-ICE cost ratio per model
MPV
Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid Touring L 2018

Source: Own work, data calculated from Teoalida (2019)
Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid Touring Plus 2019

Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid Touring Plus 2018
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Kia Niro EX FWD 2019
Kia Niro EX FWD 2018
Kia Niro EX Premium 2019
Kia Niro EX Premium 2018
Kia Niro LX FWD 2019
Kia Niro LX FWD 2018
Mercedes Benz GLC Class 350e 2019
Volvo XC60 T8 eAWD Inscription 2019
Volvo XC60 T8 eAWD Inscription 2018
Volvo XC60 T8 eAWD Momentum 2019
Volvo XC60 T8 eAWD Momentum 2018
Volvo XC60 T8 eAWD R-Design 2019
Crossover / Compact SUV
Volvo XC60 T8 eAWD R-Design 2018

Mini Cooper Countryman Cooper S E ALL4 2019
Mini Cooper Countryman Cooper S E ALL4 2018
BMW X5 xDrive 40e iPerformance
Mercedes Benz GLE Class 550e
Porsche Cayenne SE Hybrid AWD
Volvo XC90 T8 eAWD Inscription
Volvo XC60 T8 eAWD Momentum
Volvo XC60 T8 eAWD R-Design
Volvo XC90 T8 eAWD Passenger Inscription
Volvo XC60 T8 eAWD Passenger Momentum
Volvo XC60 T8 eAWD Passenger R-Design
Midsize SUV
Mitsubishi Outlander GT S-AWC 2019

Mitsubishi Outlander GT S-AWC 2018
Mitsubishi Outlander SEL S-AWC 2019
Mitsubishi Outlander SEL S-AWC 2018
0
1
2
PHEV-ICE cost ratio
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
The mini-compact car PHEV market segment is dominated by European brands expectedly
as these are popular throughout Europe. The sub-compact class is shared by U.S. and
European vehicles, while the compact to mid-size cars are mostly Asian models.
In general, battery range of PHEVs is mostly within 15 to 35 kms, which is sufficient to

facilitate significant electric drive train mode shares (Plotz et al., 2018). Figure 1-10 indicates
that the price of PHEVs is affected by the battery range, though to a lesser degree compared
to BEVs, as expected. Though the relationship exists, the effect is masked by other cost
factors.
70
60
Battery Range (km)
50
40
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30
20
N
O
10
0
T
20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000

MSRP (USD)
AF
Premium Sub-Compact Cars Premium Compact Cars

Premium Mid Size Cars Premium Full-Size Cars
R
Premium MPV Premium Crossover/Compact SUV

Premium Mid Size SUV Non Premium Compact Cars
D
Non-Premium Mid Size Cars Non Premium Crossover/Compact SUV

Non Premium Mid Size SUV
*Note: circle sizes are proportional to the price difference with comparable ICE models
Figure 1-10 Cost vs battery range of U.S. market PHEV models
As shown in Figure 1-10, similar to BEVs, the price difference of PHEV non-premium car
models relative to their ICE counterparts are higher compared to the premium models.
Though similar, this trend is not as pronounced for SUVs. Moreover, while the vehicle price
tends to increase with battery range within a vehicle class, the effect is not as strong
compared to BEVs. This weaker effect could be attributed to the wider diversity of vehicle
models within the class and that PHEVs utilise smaller batteries compared to BEVs.
Figure 1-11 further provides a statistical summary of the city driving energy economy
exhibited by these vehicles according to their variants. The city driving mode is of particular
32
interest considering that electric vehicles are mostly utilised in urban areas due to limitations
in range.
8.0
7.0
Energy Economy (km/kWh)
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
MC Car SC Car C/M Car F Car Cr / SC SUV M SUV
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Figure 1-11 BEV City driving energy economy range
N
O
The aggregated data in Figure 1-11 was derived from a collation of energy economy values
of various BEV models shown in Table 1-7.
T
AF
R
D
33
Table 1-7 Energy economy of battery electric models
Combined City Highway
Range Economy Economy Economy
Battery Electric Vehicles
(km)
km/Le km/kWh km/Le km/kWh km/Le km/kWh
Mini-compact Sedan
FIAT 500E 135 47.62 5.24 52.72 5.65 52.72 4.76
Mitsubishi I-MiEV 95 47.62 5.24 53.57 5.88 53.57 4.55
SMART Fortwo EV Coupe 93 45.92 5.16 52.72 5.92 52.72 4.49
SMART Fortwo EV 92 43.36 4.85 47.62 5.35 47.62 4.35
Subcompact Sedan
BMW i3 183 50.17 5.53 54.84 6.05 54.84 4.96
BMW i3s 172 47.62 5.33 53.57 5.99 53.57 4.71
Chevrolet Spark EV 383 50.6 5.56 54.42 5.99 54.42 5.10
Honda FIT EV 132 50.17 5.52 56.12 6.17 56.12 4.90
Compact / Mid Size Cars
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Nissan LEAF 243 47.62 5.25 53.14 5.86 53.14 4.69
Volkswagen E-Golf 201 50.59 5.71 53.57 5.90 53.57 5.20
Tesla Model 3 LR 499 55.27 6.15 57.82 6.43 57.82 5.82
N
Tesla Model 3 LR AWD 499 49.32 5.52 51.02 5.71 51.02 5.33
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Tesla Model 3 LR AWD-P 499 49.32 5.52 51.02 5.71 51.02 5.33
Ford Focus Electric 185 45.49 5.16 50.17 5.69 50.17 4.59
Hyundai Ioniq Electric 200 57.82 6.43 63.78 7.14 63.78 5.71
T
Honda Clarity EV 143 48.47 5.33 53.57 5.91 53.57 4.83

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Chevrolet Bolt EV 383 50.6 5.65 54.42 5.99 54.42 5.26

Full-size Sedan
R
Tesla Model S 100D 539 43.36 4.85 42.94 4.80 42.94 4.85
Tesla Model S P100D 507 36.14 4.00 35.29 3.91 35.29 4.19
D
Tesla Model S 75D 417 43.79 4.85 43.36 4.80 43.36 4.94
Hyundai Kona Electric 415 51.02 5.63 56.12 6.19 56.12 5.06
KIA Soul EV 179 47.62 5.16 52.71 5.92 52.71 4.44
Mid size SUV
Tesla Model X P100D 465 36.14 4.00 36.56 3.91 35.29 4.19
Tesla Model X 100D 475 36.99 4.10 35.29 4.05 36.56 4.20
Tesla Model X 75D 383 39.54 4.44 38.69 4.35 38.69 4.54
Toyota RAV4 EV 166 32.31 3.57 33.16 3.70 33.16 3.45
Tesla Model X 75D 383 39.54 4.44 38.69 4.35 38.69 4.54
BYD E6 300 30.61 3.40 31.03 3.45 31.03 3.35
Jaguar I-Pace 377 32.31 3.64 34.01 3.82 34.01 3.44
Source: Own work, data taken from Teoalida (2019)
34
Unlike BEVs, ICE vehicles have higher fuel consumption in urban areas, which could be
attributed to the following:
• ICEs have highly narrow peak efficiency range, which is barely reached during city
driving
• Engines continuously consume burning fuel unnecessarily on idle modes
• Frequent braking results in significant energy losses
In contrast to ICE vehicles, EVs have a wider elevated efficiency range, do not consume
energy when idling, and recover significant energy when braking. Combining these factors
with higher air drags at higher speeds lead to more efficient energy economy in urban areas
compared to highway driving.
The battery range of BEVs in Table 1-7 are between 92 to 539 kms. The travel range of
smaller vehicles, i.e. mini-compacts and sub-compacts, are normally capable of a lower
range as these are mostly used for daily city travel, while bigger vehicles are fitted with
larger batteries as these are more intended for mixed purposes.
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Figures 1-12 and 1-13 provides a statistical summary of e-drive mode energy economy and
ICE drive mode fuel economy, respectively, of PHEV models shown in Table 1-7.
N
7.0
O
6.0
Energy Economy (km/kWh)
5.0
T
4.0
AF
3.0
2.0
1.0
R
0.0
D
SC Car C/M Car F Car CR/SC SUV M SUV
Figure 1-12 PHEV e-drive mode energy economy (city driving)

The e-drive mode energy economy of PHEVs is lower than BEVs, which could be ascribed
to their heavier mass and more complicated drive system that leads to slightly higher
transmission losses.
35
25.0
Fuel Economy (km/l) 20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Figure 1-13 PHEV ICE mode fuel economy (city driving)

The actual operating cost and environmental performance of PHEVs greatly depend on the
travel pattern and charging behaviour of users. A comprehensive study tracked about 2,000
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PHEVs in the U.S. and Europe for more than one year and found that a 40-km drive share
could result in a 65% electric drive share and that further increasing the battery range to 90
km leads to about an 87% electric drive share (Plotz et al., 2018) (Figure 1-14).
N
100%
O
90%
Electric Drive Share (%)
80%
70%
T
60%
AF
50%
40%
30%
R
20%
D
10% Battery Range (km)

0%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Figure 1-14 Electric drive share vs PHEV battery range

Source: Plotz et al. (2018)
The combined (electric and ICE) fuel economy range of PHEVs for the various vehicle
classes are provided in Figure 1-15. The values provided assumes that the electric driving
share follows the trend indicated in Figure 1-14.
36
60.0
Fuel Economy
50.0
(km/le)
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Figure 1-15 PHEV combined fuel economy

Table 1-8 Energy economy of selected PHEV models
Energy Economy
Electric
PHEVs ICE Mode E-Drive Mode Combined
Range
(km/l) (km/kWh) (km/le)
Subcompact Cars
BMW i3 (94AH) with Range Extender 156 12.75 5.22 56.39
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Compact / Midsize Cars
Audi A3 E-Tron 26 15.37 3.96 25.06
KIA Optima PHEV 47 16.93 4.94 36.10
N
Ford Fusion Energi PHEV 42 17.64 4.91 35.00
O
Hyundai Sonata PHEV 45 16.82 4.73 34.34
Chevrolet Volt 85 17.98 5.22 43.04
Honda Clarity PHEV 77 17.50 5.22 42.34
T
Toyota Prius Prime PHEV 40 22.99 6.37 44.87

AF
Hyundai Ioniq PHEV 47 21.95 5.68 42.18

Full size car
Porsche Panamera 4 E-Hybrid 23 9.33 2.73 15.98
R
Karma Revero 60 8.85 2.90 22.23

BMW 740E Xdrive 23 11.32 3.12 18.63
D
Cadillac CT6 PHEV 50 10.78 2.98 22.26

Volvo S90 AWD PHEV 34 11.15 3.60 23.43
BMW 530E 26 12.03 3.49 21.32
BMW 330E 23 12.90 3.39 20.61
Mercedes Benz GLC350E 4Matic 14 10.72 2.74 14.79
KIA Niro PHEV 42 19.69 5.06 36.60
Mini Cooper Se Countryman ALL4 19 11.71 3.15 17.98
Midsize SUV
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV 35 10.77 3.59 23.45
BMW X5 xDrive40e 23 10.15 2.69 16.30
Porsche Cayenne S E-Hybrid 26 9.47 2.30 14.82
Volvo XC90 AWD PHEV 31 10.26 2.91 18.89
Volvo XC90 AWD PHEV 31 11.15 3.60 22.71
Mercedes Benz GLE550E 4Matic 13 8.67 2.35 12.07
Source: Own work, data taken from Teoalida (2019)
37
1.4 Battery Cost Projections and Technology
Battery cost accounts for the largest share of the cost of materials, parts, and components of
EVs, as shown in Figure 1-16.
120.00%
100.00%
18.50% 16.40% 15.30%
26.50%
80.00% 14.80% 46.60%
18.30% 50%
24.20%
60.00% 21.20%
12.10%
40.00% 15.90%
65.30% 70%
52.30% 57.30%
20.00% 41.40% 34.10%
0.00%
BEV 100 BEV 100 BEV 150 BEV 200 2017 BEV 2025 BEV
320 320
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Freis et al Wolfram and Lutsey (2016) Lutsey et al (2018)
(2018)
N
Battery Motor, Power, Electronics Others
O
Figure 1-16 Electric vehicle cost breakdown

T
Source: Own illustration, sources cited in-figure

AF
On average, batteries represent about 50% of EV parts cost and could even account for a
higher share depending on the battery range. While battery cost is expected to drop,
projections indicate that batteries still take up a significant share of the vehicle cost. The
R
faster penetration of EVs in the market is thus strongly contingent on battery technology
developments including:
D
• Reducing the production cost;

• Increasing the power and energy density to allow faster charging and lesser weight; and
• Increasing battery cycle life
Price reduction projections are hinged on efforts to develop new battery chemistries.
Lithium-based batteries are currently the batteries used in most EVs. Current lithium-based
chemistries offer their own strengths and weaknesses (summarised in Table 1-9).
38
Table 1-9 Lithium-based battery cost and performance
Battery Cost Energy Density Nominal Voltage Cycle Life
LCO + + + --
LMO ++ - ++ --
LFP - -- - -
LTO -- -- -- ++
NCA + ++ + -
NMC + + + +
Source: Own work, data derived from Battery University (2018) and Pillot (2017)
Lithium Cobalt Oxide (LCO) was the first to be developed and commercialised. Being on the
more advanced stage of commercialisation, LCO is currently one of the cheapest among the
lithium-based chemistries and has fairly good nominal voltage rating and energy density
(Battery University, 2018). However, LCO batteries suffer from a relatively shorter cycle life
and poor thermal stability, thus having a higher tendency for thermal runaway.
Improvements to LCO were obtained through Lithium Manganese Oxide (LMO) resulting in
increased thermal stability and nominal voltage including lower cost, though a lower charge-
discharge cycle life. Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) has twice the life cycle of LCO and thrice
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that of LMO, however is only capable of low nominal voltages, affecting its overall power
output and production cost. Moreover, Toshiba’s Lithium Titanate Oxide (LTO) boasts of a
highly robust configuration that is capable of withstanding overcharge and over-discharge
N
scenarios. However, LTO batteries are relatively more expensive and have the lowest
nominal voltage among lithium-based batteries.
O
Lithium combined with a Nickel-Cadmium-Aluminum (NCA) electrode costs significantly

T
lower than LFP and generates a higher nominal voltage though has a shorter cycle life
performance. Recent efforts realised the development of Nickel-Cadmium-Manganese
AF
(NCM) electrode lithium batteries, which provides comparable nominal voltage, significantly
longer cycle life, though is at a slightly higher cost than NCA batteries. Currently, nickel-rich
R
cathode, i.e. Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide (cathode: NMC 6:2:2) with graphite anode in a
lithium-ion battery is considered as state-of-the-art for its higher density, longer cycle life,
D
good electrochemical performance, low volume expansion during charging and discharging,
and affordability.
Berckmans et al. (2017) projects that research on battery will be defined by three directions
for the next eight years (until 2027). The first trend involves the use of electrode options
having higher capacities, which includes sulfur, silicon, and lithium metals, in order to
increase energy density. The second trend focuses on increasing cell voltage close to 5V for
the same purpose and to also allow harmonisation with commonly used values in order to
facilitate shared application. The third trend focuses on addressing safety issues by utilising
solid state electrolytes. While lithium-magnesium battery research offers a lot of potential
due to its superior energy density and projected lower cost, immediate commercialisation is
not expected and could be beyond the next ten years. Commercialisation of sodium-ion,
zinc-air and lithium-air batteries is expected to even take longer.
In addition to technological improvements, battery mass production is expected to provide

further cost reductions. Battery price projections vary. Van Velzen (2016) projects that EV
39
battery prices could fall by 33% by 2030, while Soulopoulos (2017), Berckmans et al. (2017),
and Curry (2017) estimate more significant price reductions at 61%, 59%, and 55%
respectively.
Battery technology development and improvements in EV drive systems are also expected
to result in more efficient vehicles. In 2030, Van Velzen (2016), Hill et al. (2016), and Wu et
al. (2015) respectively estimates EVs to be more efficient by 6%, 7%, and 13%.
1.5 EV Charging Infrastructure Technology and Availability
Electric charging systems are classified into three levels. Level 1 charging systems are
commonly used as home chargers and provides charging through a 120V AC plug supplying
1-2 kW. Level 2 chargers are normally used in both home and public charging points and
offers 3-20 kW charging through a 208-240V AC plug. Level 3 chargers are also commonly
known as fast chargers and are operated to supply power through both AC and DC outlets.
AC fast chargers use a 3-phase input and offers 50 kW power through a 400V plug. DC fast
chargers are further classified into three levels (Table 1-10).
Table 1-10 Charging level characteristics

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N
AC Charging Rated Power Input Power Approximate
Level Range (kW) Requirements Charging Time
O
1 1-2 120VAC, 20A 8-15 hours
208-240VAC, up to 80A
2 3-20 3-8 hours
T
(40A typical)
3
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- AC - 20-50 - 3-phase, 400VAC

- DC Level 1 - up to 36 - 200-450 VDC, up to 80A 20 minutes – 1 hour
- DC Level 2 - up to 90 - 200-450 VDC, up to 200A
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- DC Level 3 - up to 240 - 200-600 VDC, up to 400A

D
Source: Own tabulation, data taken from Van Velzen (2016)
Manufacturers follow different charging standards implemented in different regions. Charging

standards include the CHAdeMO, Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE), Guobiao
standards (GB/T), and Tesla charging summarised in Table 1-11. Japanese EVs are mostly
based on the CHAdeMO standards, while Chinese EVs mostly utilise the GB/T standard.
U.S. and European models mostly utilise the SAE system. Tesla, as the de facto EV market
leader, has set up its own charging standard and charging stations.
40
Table 1-11 Summary of charging standards worldwide
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N
O
T
AF
Notes: 1CHAdeMO version 2.0, 2CCS 2.0, 3GB/T fast charging standard still under development,
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4
Tesla supercharger version 2, 5Tesla supercharger version 3 still under development
Source: Own work, data compiled from IEA (2018a) and Nomura Research Institute (2018)
D
Table 1-12 further provides an overview of prevalent charging standards in different

countries. China implements its own GB/T standard for slow and fast chargers. In India,
Korea, Australia, and Europe, IEC standards prevail for slow charging, while Japan and
North America adhere to the equivalent SAE J1772 standard. For fast charging, countries
mostly follow the CCS Combo.
In terms of the availability of charging points worldwide, GB/T has the most charging points
installed almost exclusively in China, followed by CHAdeMO, Tesla, and CCS chargers
(Table 1-13).
41
Table 1-12 Charging standards adopted in key EV countries
Conventional
Slow chargers Fast chargers
plugs
Level Level 3 (AC,

Level 1 (AC) Level 2 (AC) Level 3 (DC)
(Current) triphase)
> 3.7kW and ≤ 22 > 22kW and
Power ≤ 3.7 kW Currently < 200 kW
≤ 22kW kW ≤ 43.5 kW
GB/T 20234
China Type I GB/T 20234 AC
DC
(Draft) GB/T
20234 DC (<
(Draft) IEC 60309 20 kW) and
industrial socket (two (Draft) IEC (Draft)
India Type C/D/M wheelers) and IEC 62196-2 CHAdeMO
CCS Combo
62196-2 Type 2 Type 2 allowed
2 (IEC
(other vehicles)
62196-3) (≥
20 kW)
Accepts all
SAE J1772
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Japan Type B Tesla IEC 62196-3
Type 1
standards
CCS Combo
Korea Type A/C IEC62196-2 Type 2 1 (IEC
N
62196-3)
CCS Combo Tesla and
O
Europe Type C/F/G IEC62196-2 Type 2 2 (IEC CHAdeMO
62196-3) (IEC 62196-3
T
Accepts all Type 4)

Australia Type 1 IEC62196-2 Type 2 IEC 62196-3
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standards
CCS Combo
(Under
North Type B; SAE SAE J1772 1 (SAE
Tesla development)
R
America J1772 Type 1 Type 1 J1772 and

SAE J3068
IEC 62196-3)
D
Legend: Standards are being planned or developed

Table 1-13: Estimated (slow and fast) charging points installed worldwide
Charging Standard Estimated charge points
CHAdeMO 16,639
CCS 7,000
Tesla 8,496
GB/T 127,434
Source: Own elaboration based on Steitz (2018)
Figure 1-17 further details the geographical distribution of fast chargers worldwide.
42
Figure 1-17 Number of fast chargers installed in leading EV countries by charging
standards
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Source: Nicholas and Hall (2018, p. 8)
Based on the IEA (2018a) report, about 3.5 million EV charging points have been installed
N
worldwide in 2017 (Figure 1-18).
O
4000
Charging outlets (thousands)
3500
T
Publicly available
3000 fast chargers
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2500 Publicly available

slow chargers
2000
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Private fast
chargers
1500
D
Private slow
1000 chargers
500
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Notes:
- Estimates for private chargers assume that each electric car is coupled with 1.1 private chargers
(Level 1 or Level 2) in all countries except China and Japan. Estimates for China and Japan are set
at 0.8 chargers per EV, based on a market survey by the China Electric Vehicle Charger
Infrastructure Promotion Alliance to about one-third of Chinese electric car owners (EVCIPA, 2018)
- Electric two-wheelers have not been included in the assessment
- One private fast charging outlet is assumed to be available for every three buses in China, based on
the ratio reported for Shenzhen and generalised to the national level (Lu et al., 2018)
- This assessment accounted for the number of outlets based on the number of cars that can charge
simultaneously at maximum power. With one AC and DC connector, two vehicles could be charged.
Figure 1-18 Volume of charge points installed worldwide
43
China hosts the dominant share of both slow and fast public chargers globally (Figure 1-19).
The U.S. and Japan also account for significant shares, while Germany represents a fair
share of slow chargers.
1%
1%
China 2%
2% China
Japan 7%
22% Japan
United States 6% United States
3% 41% Germany 7% Germany
United Kingdom
United Kingdom
4% France
74% France
4% 7% Norway
12% 7% Norway
Others
Others
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Figure 1-19 Country shares of publicly accessible slow (left) and fast (right) chargers
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Hall and Lutsey (2017) provides a snapshot of the relative availability of Level 2 and Level 3
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chargers in selected EV markets and its relationship with national shares of EV sales (Figure
1-20). Norway, which has the highest EV sales shares, has about more than 1,500 public
T
charge points per million of the population. Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria, and Sweden
also account for high EV sales shares and are among the countries with relatively more
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public charge points per million capita. Despite having the most number of public chargers,
China has only about 100 charge points per million capita.
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D
Figure 1-20 Density of public charge points and EV shares of selected countries
Source: Hall and Lutsey (2017, p. 34)
44
Limiting the assessment to national figures however, could be misleading as EV adoption
and infrastructure may be concentrated in selected areas. City-level figures provide more
accurate insights on the infrastructure available supporting EV operations, as shown in
Figure 1-21. Cities in China are found to have the highest number of public fast chargers per
million capita, while Scandinavian cities have taken a predominantly slow charging point
strategy.
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Figure 1-21 Density of public fast and slow charge points in selected cities
N
O
Within ASEAN, Table 1-14 summarises the number of charge points and plans in selected
countries.
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Table 1-14 Charging infrastructure status and targets in selected ASEAN countries
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Country Status Target / Plans Major players

- Agency for the
- 1300 stations - Multiple companies Assessment and
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nationwide have expressed Application of

Indonesia
- 1100 stations in interest in the EV Technology (BPPT)
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Jakarta market - Mitsubishi

- Honda
- chargEV
- 400 stations as of - 3000 stations by end of
Malaysia - First Energy Networks
September 2018 2019
- GreenTech Malaysia
- 50 units of Level 2
Thailand - 690 stations by 2036 - Greenlots
chargers
Source: Own elaboration based on Consultancy Asia (2018), Engel et al (2018), and
Greenlots (2018)
In Indonesia, a large portion of existing charge points is concentrated in its capital, Jakarta,
while only 200 (15% of the total 1300 stations) (Consultancy Asia, 2018) are spread across
other parts of the country.
45
In Malaysia, the government-backed Malaysia Green Technology Corporation in 2015
committed to the establishment of 25,000 charge points by 2020 (Harman, 2015). In
September 2018, 400 stations have been installed and a new target of 1,000 by the end of
2018 was set. By the end of 2019, the establishment of additional 2,000 more stations is
expected (Zakariah, 2018), with the support of other charging system players including
chargEV and First Energy Networks.
In Thailand, Greenlots has been chosen to provide its cloud-based network services for its
initial 50 Level 2 charging stations. The country plans to have 690 charging stations by 2036
(Greenlots, 2018)
Figure 1-22 provides insights on the relationship between the accessibility nature of
chargepoints and EV penetration rates, highlighting the importance of workplace charging
points.
LY
N
O
T
AF
Figure 1-22 Public and workplace chargepoint breakdown in selected U.S. cities
R
San Jose, which has the most charge points with more than half in the workplace, has the
D
highest EV penetration share. Interestingly, Portland, having a larger share of work-place

charge points has achieved higher EV shares compared to Sacramento, which however has
more charging points. A similar trend could be inferred between Detroit and comparable
cities. However, this trend could not be generalised for all cases.
Engel et al (2018) estimates that despite projected increases in the share of fast chargers,
Level 1 and Level 2 systems would remain to dominate EV charging due to their lower
charging costs (Figure 1-23). Fast chargers are mostly intended for applications where
Levels 1 and 2 systems are not able to satisfy, e.g. highways and fleet systems.
46
United States European Union China
6%
9% 22%
20% 32%
44%
DCFC 58%
56%
AC Level 2 68% 65%
61%
54%
AC Level 1
35% 36%
11% 7% 12%
2%
2020 2030 2020 2030 2020 2030
Figure 1-23 Charge energy share projections by charging system type

Source: Engel et al (2018)
The ideal number of charge points to support EV adoption remains to be universally agreed.
Hall and Lutsey (2017) provides a summary of ideal charging point densities recommended
by various regulating and research bodies, which is highly variable (Table 1-15).
LY
Table 1-15 Proposed / recommended EV charging point densities
N
Electric vehicle - public
Organisation Region Source
charge point ratio
O
European European Parliament
European Council 10
Union (2014)
National Renewable
T
8 (pilot cities)
Energy Laboratory China NDRC (2015)
AF
15 (other cities)
(NREL)
IEA Electric Vehicle 8 (2015)
Worldwide EVI (2016, 2017)
Initiative 15 (2016)
R
Electric Power Cooper and Schefter

Research Institute United States 7-14 (2017)
D
(EPRI) EPRI (2014)

NREL United States 24 Wood et al (2017)
California Energy
Commission (CEC) California 27 CEC and NREL (2017)
/NREL
Alternatively, a review by Nicholas and Hall (2018) suggests that the ideal fast charging point
density in a number of cities worldwide ranges from 0.0004 to 0.03 chargers per EV. The
high variability indicates that charging requirements are highly site-specific and highlights the
need for in-depth studies in order to support local charging infrastructure planning. Nicholas
and Hall (2018) however indicates that the required fast charging point density varies with
the maturity of the EV market. More fast charging points are needed at the initial phase of
EV diffusion (0.02 fast chargers per EV), which gradually reduces to significantly lower levels
(0.001 fast chargers per EV) as EV adoption normalises.
47
Various charging business models have been adopted globally. Table 1-16 provides an
overview of the more popular strategies adopted to ensure the viable operations of charging
networks.
Table 1-16 Charging network development and business models

Business Sample
Description Investors Operator
model case
EV sales
and Level 1 or 2 charging
- Vehicle supplier
charging systems are installed at
- Government BYD
system location of choice of personal Buyer
- Grid utility (China)
installation and corporate buyers of
companies
(Weiller et electric vehicles
al., 2013)
EV sales Vehicle buyers are granted
and access free or discounted access to
to charging Level 2 and fast charging
facility networks, which are provided
LY
(Weiler et al., and/or arranged by vehicle
2013; Hall et suppliers.
al., 2017; Variant 1
Ensto, 2019)
N
Vehicle suppliers install and
operate the charging - Vehicle supplier
O
network and grants - Tesla
- Government Vehicle
exclusive use only to its - Porsche
- Grid utility supplier
vehicle models. Charging (USA)
companies
T
points are normally

available in dealer
AF
showrooms among others.

Variant 2
Group of vehicle companies
R
- BMW,
install and operate the - Vehicle supplier Daimler,
charging network and
D
- Government Vehicle Volkswagen,

grants use to its models. - Grid utility suppliers and Ford
Similar to variant 1, companies (Europe)
charging points are
exhibited in dealer
showrooms among others
Variant 3 - Third party
- GM,
charging service
Partnerships are forged with Third party Daimler,
provider
a third party charging charging Volkswagen
network provider that would - Vehicle supplier
service and BMW
be responsible for providing - Government
provider (U.S.)
charging services - Grid utility
companies
Variant 4 Vehicle
- Third party
supplier/s - Nissan
Combination of variants 3 charging service
and third (Japan and
and 1 or variants 3 and 2. provider
party U.S.)
Buyers are allowed access - Vehicle supplier
charging - Mitsubishi
to the vehicle company and - Government
service (Japan)
third-party partner charging - Grid utility
providers
48
points companies
EV leasing / In the case of a leasing
sales and arrangement, a battery
battery swapping service is provided
rental / by the vehicle supplier
swapping
In the case of sales, batteries
service
are not included in the
(Weiller et
purchase and are instead
al., 2013)
rented through a swapping - Vehicle supplier Vehicle Wangxiang
program. - Government supplier (China)
Vehicle users are normally
provided with free swapping
service within a power
consumption or vehicle
mileage threshold annually.
Beyond which, payments are
to be made.
Public Purchased vehicles charge at
charging publicly available charging
points (Hall points either owned by:
LY
et al., 2017; - Local
Karkaria, government Local Mercedes
Local government
2018) - Grid utility government Benz (U.S.)
N
company
- Third party
O
charging Third party
Third party charging network provider charging
T
network providers - Government network

- Grid utility provider
AF
company
EV sharing A vertically integrated
programme system, which is entirely
R
(Weiller et controlled by the car-sharing

al., 2013; company. All costs are - Car sharing Car sharing
D
Hall et al., marked-up and are included company company

Autolib
2017) in the vehicle usage fee. - Government and/or grid
(France)
- Grid utility utility
In some cases, the charging company company
service is provided in
partnership with the grid
utility company
Source: Own elaboration based on cited sources
49
1.6 EV Adoption and Charging Infrastructure Strategies and Programs
Several governments are setting targeted policy actions, mainly addressing high acquisition
costs, limited charging infrastructure, and lack of social and technical familiarity as significant
barriers in the uptake of electric vehicles. This section presents and discusses a range of
interventions undertaken in selected leading EV markets. Key considerations in enabling the
mass-market adoption of electric vehicles are further drawn out from presented policy
experiences.
1.6.1 Electric vehicle policy review
Creating a policy environment that supports significant EV uptake beyond the business-as-
usual rate first requires adopting a regulatory and tax regime that reflects climate change
and air pollution impacts of fossil fuels and ICE vehicles (e.g. stringent fuel quality and
vehicle emissions standards, taxes imposed on ICE vehicles and poor quality fuels).
Regions that have comprehensive carbon pricing and GHG measures coordinated with EV-
focused policies are confirmed to maximize benefits from electric vehicle use (IEA, 2018a).
LY
Developing electric vehicle markets specifically involves regulatory and financial policy
instruments focused on: (i) promoting the demand side, which largely entails influencing the
N
purchase and sustained use of EVs; and (ii) the establishment of a full system of charging
infrastructure. Table 1-17 provides a review of industry- and consumer-oriented EV policies
O
in selected countries.
T
AF
R
D
50
Table 1-17 Summary of policies for increasing EV consumer demand in selected countries in 2019
PURCHASE INCENTIVES USE INCENTIVES
Rebates, direct payments Tax incentives Tax incentives Credit schemes Fringe benefits
ASIA
Subsidies mainly depend on energy Annual vehicle
LY
efficiency, electric range, and battery tax exemption for
power and density. BEVs and PHEVs
(He et al., 2018),
- for electric cars: 400 km electric which is ~USD95
range, more than 105 Wh/kg battery for an average ICE
N
pack density to receive a subsidy. At car (Declercq,
least 140 Wh/kg to receive full amount 2019)
~USD3700 (Dzikiy, 2019a) Parking fee incentives.
O
Availability and extent of
- for electric buses: Less than 0.24 incentives vary across
Wh/km-kg energy consumption, 200 License plate fee cities. EVs are entitled to
km range, 20% cap on battery mass Purchase tax waiver and parking fee reduction or
T
ratio, minimum (3C) charging speed for exemption which exemption from exemption (He et al., 2018)
FC buses, minimum battery density (85 accounts for about city license plate
Congestion zone
Wh/kg) for non-FC buses, and at least
40% fuel saving rate for PHEV
Per-vehicle subsidies for fast-charging
AF
10% of purchase
price (He et al.,
2018)
lotteries or
restrictions.
NEVs are provided
free license plates
discounts (He et al., 2018)
Exemption from road
BEVs is at ~USD29770. Subsidy level space rationing
and are not restrictions in several
R
is further subject to a cap that varies required to
according to vehicle length large cities (Hove and
participate in a Sandalow, 2019)
- for electric trucks and vocational lottery and/or an
D
vehicles: No lower than 90 Wh/kg-km auction to acquire

battery density; energy consumption no a license, as done
higher than 0.5 Wh/km-kg for trucks with conventional
and specialised delivery vehicles and vehicles (He et al.,
0.13 kWh/km-ton for other special duty 2018)
China vehicles; and minimum 90 Wh/kg
battery density for PHEV
51
Note: subsidies have decreased over
time
Exemption from
FAME Phase II scheme vehicle or road
Subsidies are available for 7090 taxes in Karnataka
electric buses, 55000 cars, 500000 (including e-
three-wheelers, and 1M two-wheelers. rickshaws and e-
LY
Subsidy prioritises public transport or carts), Delhi, Uttar
commercial-registered vehicles or Pradesh, Andhra
private two-wheelers. Subsidy amount Pradesh,
is based on battery capacity and Telangana
Goods and (Verma, 2018)
applicable only to vehicles less than
N
Services Tax
USD21177, with advanced batteries Exemption from
reduced for BEVs One-time parking fee
satisfying certain performance criteria. registration
and PHEVs to 12% incentive in Delhi (Poojary,
O
Subsidy value is estimated at permit
vs the tax rate of 2019)
USD140/KWh for all except for buses requirements and
ICEVs and HEVs at
and trucks. Subsidy is capped at 40% taxes for EVs in
28% (Sen, 2019)
of bus price and 20% for all other selected cities.
T
vehicles (REGD No. D.L-33004/99) Nationwide
Electric cars, 3W, and 2W are required exemption for
to be made of 50% local parts, while
electric buses and trucks are required
to be made of 40% local parts in order
AF registration permits
has been
announced,
implementation
to be granted the subsidy (Dogra,
2019) date pending
R
India (Prateek, 2018)
Purchase subsidy based on battery Acquisition tax Road tax

D
range performance. Maximum subsidy incentive reduction of 75%

amount is set at about USD7700 for all EVs (cars,
exemption for new minicars, trucks,
(Gibson, 2017)
BEVs and PHEVs and buses) (JAMA,
Note: subsidies has decreased over and ~USD4060 tax 2018)
Japan time reduction for used
EVs and PHEVs Tonnage tax
52
(JAMA, 2018). exemption for
Standard ICEVs new EVs (JAMA,
pay 3% of the 2018)
acquisition value
(Ishida, 2019)
Electric vehicle subsidy differential

support system
LY
Acquisition tax 50% discount on highway
State subsidies are based on battery reduction upon toll charges for EVs with
capacity and density regardless of purchase of about installed "hi-pass" prepaid
vehicle model, covering 20,000 electric USD1765 (IEA, system for expressways
cars. Depending on vehicle 2018b) (Korea Bizwire, 2017)
N
Annual
performance, subsidies vary from exemption:
USD8510-USD10040 (IEA, 2018b) Green credit card
- vehicle tax (80- scheme
O
Provincial local subsidy 200 won/cc
Points earned from low-
Fixed subsidies are provided by imposed on
carbon purchases could
several local governments. Per-vehicle ICEVs)
be converted into cash or
T
subsidy offered includes: USD3960 per Various tax relief - education tax
donated to eco-funds.
electric microcar, USD1673 per taxi, measures (IEA, (30% of annual
Discounts for electric car
2018b) vehicle tax
USD9675 per electric light truck,
USD52775 per medium electric bus,
and USD87960 for heavy electric bus.
PHEVs receive USD4400 subsidy (IEA,
AF
- up to ~USD2650
individual
imposed on
ICEVs) (Yang,
2016)
charging services are
offered (UNFCCC, 2019) Discounted parking up to
50% (Dong-Hwan, 2017)
consumption tax
2018b) - up to ~USD790 in
R
Korea Environment Corporation education tax
supports up to 500 buyers of electric
D
South cars in regions where electric cars are

Korea not subsidised (IEA, 2018b)
53
Credit
Rebates, direct payments Tax incentives Tax incentives Fringe benefits
schemes
NORTH AMERICA
Drive Electric Program
LY
offers a rebate of up to
~USD8000 for EVs
equipped with high-capacity
battery packs (Québec)
N
Clean Energy Vehicle Access to restricted
Program offers a rebate of zones applicable to all
O
up to USD5000 for BEVs BEVs and PHEVs (British
and PHEVs above a 15kWh Columbia and Québec)
capacity and USD2500 for
PHEVs equipped with
T
4kWh-15kWh battery packs High occupancy toll lane
(British Columbia) fee waiver for BEV and
SCRAP-IT Program offers a

rebate of up to USD6000 for
AF PHEV (Québec)
Canada the scrappage of a petrol-

R
(BC powered vehicle and
Hydro, replacement with a new or
2019) used EV (British Columbia)
D
Low or No Emission Electric Vehicle Tax Credit Annual license tax

Free daily parking
Competitive program (US scheme reduction for EVs (i.e.
DOT-FTA, 2019) Buyers are entitled to an EV credit in Arizona, minimum High-occupancy toll fee
United USD55M state-funding of USD2500 up to USD7500 amount is USD5; value discounts
States support for the purchase or depending on battery capacity and is 1% of retail price
lease of zero-emission individual tax situation. The tax compared to 60% for
54
transit buses and for the credit is applicable only to new ICEVs for initial year; High-occupancy vehicle
acquisition, construction of BEVs and PHEVs with at least a 5 original value of EV is lane access for EVs
required supporting facilities kWh battery capacity and can be reduced by 15% each regardless of the number of
charged from an external source year) passengers in the vehicle
(Vincent, 2018). Additional
USD417 per kWh is granted to Exemption from
vehicles in excess of 5kWh (IRS, vehicle use taxes (i.e.
(US DOE, 2019)
2019). A federal tax liability in the Arizona, New Jersey)
LY
year of purchase that meets or
exceeds the incentive amount is Annual tax credit
needed to qualify for the full available for qualified
subsidy. EVs (i.e. Utah,
N
Louisiana)
Excise tax exemptions for:
- the purchase and subsequent
EVs are entitled to a
O
purchasers of EVs (i.e.
Columbia, Utah) reduced biennial
- sale or lease for qualified EVs, vehicle registration
excluding HEVs (i.e. New fee (i.e. Illinois and
T
Jersey) Connecticut)
- up to USD100 for qualified EVs
registered (i.e. Rhode Island)
AF
Tax credit rebate programs
- credit available upon conversion
(US DOE, 2019)
of ICEVs to qualified EVs (i.e.

R
Columbia, Montana and
Louisiana)
- one-time credit against excise
D
tax for EV purchasers (i.e.

Maryland)
- tax credit available for
purchase, lease or conversion
to qualified EVs (i.e. Colorado)
(US DOE, 2019)

55
Credit
Rebates, direct payments Tax incentives Tax incentives Fringe benefits
schemes
EUROPE
Bonus-Malus system Crit'air vignette-defined
LY
(Monschauer and Kotin-Förster, access zones (clean air
2018) sticker)
Registration tax
- Bonus of up to USD6740 (27% of incentives for All vehicles are required to
acquisition cost) and USD1120 is EVs (EAFO, secure a vignette that varies
N
granted for purchasing BEVs and 2019a) according to EURO
PHEVs respectively. - 50% reduction standard compliance.
O
- Scrappage and replacement of or full Annual vehicle tax exemption of Higher emitting vehicles are
old diesel or ICE vehicles is exemption of EUR160 (~USD180) applied to high- restricted or pay high
granted an additional bonus of regional emission vehicles (Manthey, 2017; charges in low emissions
USD1120 (USD2245 for non- registration tax AngloInfo, 2019) and emergency low
T
taxable households) for a used depending on emission zones. Electric
EV replacement or USD2800 for the region vehicles are allowed free
a new EV replacement. - exempted from Annual company car tax (‘TVS’) access at any time (Taal,
- Electric 2W, 3W, and electric
quads are also eligible for a 20%
or 27% bonus (maximum
AF
environmental
penalties
enforced for
exemption for BEVs. PHEVs are
exempt for two years (Manthey, 2017).
Company car taxation depends on CO2
2018)
USD112 or USD1010) of the ICEVs emitting emissions added to an annual fixed rate
of EUR20 for petrol and EUR40 for
R
acquisition cost, depending on 120g CO2/km
the power. Non-taxable or higher diesel vehicles (Hauff et al., 2018) Discounted to free parking
households are eligible for a 20% on public street
D
subsidy of the purchasing cost of

electric bicycles
Public transport EVs or Reduced toll fees
commercial EVs subsidy
France Electric buses, electric taxis, and

EVs used in driving schools or
56
SMEs are eligible for an additional
per-vehicle grant of USD9000,
USD3370, and USD6740
respectively (Manthey, 2017)
Company car tax deduction

Environmental bonus purchase
(Kampermann, 2019) Use of special traffic
grant
- Electric company car use is treated as lanes, loading lanes, and
LY
taxable income and measured at a bus lanes for EVs with e-
- Fully electric vehicles are granted
monthly rate of 0.5% of the gross badge stickers
EUR4000 (USD4490). PHEVs
vehicle price, which is 50% less than
are granted EUR3000
the standard ICEV tax rate. Prioritisation of loading
(USD3370).
- Qualified EVs: 40 km battery range; and delivery traffic for EVs
N
- Subsidy is applicable towards
PHEVs emitting below 50 g-CO2/km
purchases of vehicles below
Free or reserved parking
EUR60000 (USD67390) and to
O
Annual road/vehicle tax benefits for EVs, PHEVs with an e-
vehicles capable of at least 40
(Kampermann, 2019) badge stickers
km electrical range or a
- EVs, excluding HEVs, newly
maximum of 50 g CO2/km.
registered from 2016-2020 are (German Law Archive,
- Government grants funding if
T
granted a ten-year exemption from 2015)
manufacturer also provides half
the motor vehicle tax. Vehicles
the grant
emitting above 95 gCO2/km are Exemption of road toll
(Federal Ministry for the
Environment, Nature Conservation
Germany and Nuclear Safety, n.d.)
AF levied EUR2 per gCO2
- After exemption, EVs are granted
50% reduction of base amounts that
(BMVI Infrastrukturabgabe,
2018, cited in Steinbacher
et al., 2018)
depend on EV weights
R
25% VAT of the Annual road traffic insurance tax Access to bus lanes for
purchase exemption for EVs. Taxes could reach BEVs, depending on
amount up to ~USD1.06 per day (for Diesel municipal laws. Other cases
D
including import vehicles) (Norwegian Tax require carpooling with at

taxes waived for Administration, 2019) least one passenger in rush
purchasers or hours to use the bus lanes
lessors of BEVs Ownership tax reduction (EAFO, 2019b; Norwegian
Norway (Lillemork, 2019; BEVs and PHEVs pay the minimum Electric Car Association,
Norwegian amount of USD53 (EAFO, 2019b) n.d.)
57
Electric Car Up to 50% discount on
Association, n.d.) 40% reduction on company car parking, toll roads, and
taxes, applicable only to BEVs ferries (EAFO, 2019b;
(Steinbacher et al., 2018) Norwegian Electric Car
Association, n.d.)
Annual vehicle or circulation tax
incentive (UK Driver and Vehicle
Licensing Agency, 2019)
LY
- for EVs valued at GBP40000
(USD52270) or less are exempted
- EVs valued above GBP40000
Free parking for EVs;
(USD52270) pay lower rates
Purchase subsidy
N
compared to petrol/diesel (up to
New BEVs are entitled to GBP3500 Exemption from
GBP465 or ~USD590) and AFVs
(USD4570) (EAFO, 2019c) and up congestion charge in
(GBP455 or ~USD575)
O
to GBP8000 (USD (USD101120) London
for LCVs (Baker, 2019)
Company car tax incentives
(EAFO, 2019c)
- Exemption for BEVs
- 1% of list price for cars emitting 1-50
T
gCO2/km is planned for 2020-2021
(UK HM Revenue and Customs,
UK AF 2016) compared to 37% of the list
price for ICEVs (Baker, 2019)
Note: Information presented may not be comprehensive, as full details of policies may not be publicly reported.
Legend No policy Local level Nationwide coverage
R
Source: Own work based on cited sources
D
58
Key insights can be gleaned from the reviewed policy experiences of leading EV
markets:
- Acquisition support is a necessary transitory step. Most leading EV markets have
allocated significant investments in reducing the EV purchase cost premium over
ICE vehicles, mainly through vehicle purchase subsidies and/or exemptions on
vehicle purchase taxes. Most countries also provide incentives at the time of
purchase. Direct consumer subsidies are however bound to raise sustainability
issues in the process of more competitive EV production. Governments therefore
tend to redesign financing support with more stringent eligibility requirements,
evident in the US and China, or develop policy mechanisms and/or viable
business models that create the necessary pressure for the EV industry to set
competitive pricing, as done in China and Germany.
- Increasing financial incentives with EV performance. Incentives are mostly

differentiated in favour of BEVs over PHEVs and are associated with high-
capacity batteries capable of longer electric driving ranges. China, France, and
Canada are case examples that demonstrate a more proactive EV adoption
approach through additional subsidy grants for EVs that replace scrapped ICE
LY
vehicles. Linking financial incentives with battery and vehicle emissions
performance goes beyond encouraging EV uptake as it creates a fiscal policy
coherent with intended higher-level sustainability objectives.
N
O
- Prioritizing incentives for public transport and commercial vehicles. Significant
incentives are directed to electric vehicles for public transport and/or commercial
use, evident in the cases of France, US, South Korea, and India. Prioritising mass
T
transport vehicles offer the double benefit of influencing a shift behaviour from car-
AF
dependent users and demonstrating the reliance of electric drivetrains, which is a

widely recognised barrier in the adoption of EVs.
R
- More operational measures could be considered on a wider scale. Measures that

support the use of EVs, e.g. parking fee discounts or exemptions, waivers on
D
access restrictions, access to priority lanes, exemptions or discounts from toll

charges, complement fiscal policies and reduces operating costs. Incentives
offered commonly depend at the local level, which could be further upscaled for
wider coverage.
1.6.2 Charging infrastructure policy review
Policy actions on electric vehicle consumer demand are insufficient preconditions to

EV market development, which requires equal focus on the needed electric vehicle
charging infrastructure. Main challenges that policies widely seek to overcome
involve charging availability and charging speed, which hinders buyer and driving
range confidence. Governments of leading EV markets have devised a variety of
financing mechanisms including subsidies, tax incentives, and co-investment
schemes with the private sector to support the development of charging infrastructure
(Table 1-18).
59
Table 1-18 Overview of financing mechanisms to support EV charging
infrastructure in selected leading EV markets
TAX INCENTIVE, CO-INVESTMENT
SUBSIDIES
DISCOUNTS SCHEMES
NORTH AMERICA
For the purchase and Federal government
installation of Level 2 investment to develop a
charging stations (Services Flo coast-to-coast charging
Inc, 2019): network for EVs (NRC,
2018a)
British Columbia covers: State or local
- 75% of costs, up to USD750 government
for single-family homes and investments also on
Canada duplexes; building EV charging
- 75% of costs, up to USD4000 infrastructure, e.g.
for multi-unit residential Toronto (NRC, 2018a),
buildings New Westminster (NRC,
- 50% of costs, up to USD4000 2018b), Ontario and
for workplaces Manitoba (NRC, 2018c)
LY
Québec provides funding up to
USD600
Federal loan
N
guarantees of up to
Tax credit to owners of USD4.5 billion has been
O
charging outlets (US set, though no loan has
DOE, 2019) been issued, for the
development of EV
T
US
Electricity discounted charging infrastructure
rate plans based on along identified main
AF
time-of-use pricing corridors based on

model suggestions submitted by
states (Hove and
R
Sandalow, 2019)
ASIA
D
Charging fee caps are

applied in several cities,
relatively cheaper than State Grid charging
petrol price. Wuhu offers network program since
free public charging for 2010 has built charging
electric cars (Hove and piles nationwide and
Sandalow, 2019) operates a smart system
Home charger purchase and
Dedicated central EV that integrates
installation cost incentives in
China charging and battery information from
over 30 cities (Hove and
swap stations are charging piles owned by
Sandalow, 2019)
exempted from demand other service providers
charges (Hove and (Shuiyu, 2018)
Sandalow, 2019)
Electricity discounted
rate plans based on
time-of-use pricing
model
Electricity supply tax FAME II significantly
India
incentive. Tariff should focuses investments on
60
not exceed more than the the set up of charging
average cost of electricity stations with public
supply plus 15% in sector units and private
electric vehicle public players, through a
charging stations government outlay of
(Ganguly, 2019) about USD1.4 billion
(InsightsIAS, 2019).
Electricity tariff is set at
residential rates for
charging stations
(Ganguly, 2019)
Electricity tax waived
for all EV investors
(Ganguly, 2019)
Next Generation
Vehicle Charging
Infrastructure
Deployment Promotion
project
Joint venture between
LY
the Development Bank of
Japan, leading Japanese
Japan
car makers, and power
N
company TEPCO to fund
charging stations around
O
cities and highway rest
stations. Nippon Charge
Service has been created
T
to operate the stations

(Diwan, 2018)
AF
South Korea’s state-run

utility provider Korea
Electric Power
R
Corporation (KEPCO)
50% discount on
invests and operates
D
electricity for individuals

South charging stations
and business owners of
Korea distributed nationwide.
EV charging stations (Ji-
KEPCO is fully
young, 2016)
responsible for
establishing stations 50%
of the target (Woo-hyun,
2017)
EUROPE
30% tax rebate for
installation of home
France
charging stations (ITA,
2017)
Purchase subsidy of EUR3000 Benefit of charging in Charging infrastructure
(USD3370) per charging station workplace is non-taxable. programme of the
capable of 22 kW; EUR12000 Income tax of employers Federal Ministry of
Germany (USD13480) for DC chargers are allowed a discount of Transport and Digital
capable of 100 kW; and 25% of the lumpsum Infrastructure has set
EUR30000 (USD33695) for DC value of the cash benefit aside EUR 300 million for
chargers above 100 kW. (EAFO, 2019d). the development of
61
Connections to the grid are needs-based public
eligible for subsidies of up to charging infrastructure
EUR5000 (USD5615) for low nationwide from 2017-
voltage and up to EUR50000 2020. The fund would be
(USD56160) for medium voltage matched by private
grid (EAFO, 2019d). sector investors, towns
and city governments
(New Europe Online,
2019)
Public funding for fast
charging stations every
50km on main roads
(EAFO, 2019b)
Induction-based
charging stations for
electric taxis
Norwegian government
has tapped Finnish
utilities firm Fortum,
Norway
which is cooperating with
LY
the Oslo municipal
government of and US
company Momentum
N
Dynamics for the
installation of road-based
O
charging plates that
connect to energy
receivers in the vehicles
T
(Statt, 2019)
Electric Vehicle Home Charge Charging Infrastructure
AF
Scheme Investment programme

Grants of up to USD650 are GBP 200 million
provided to EV owners, government investment
R
registered keepers, lessee that matched with an

have installed a home charging additional GBP 200
D
100% first year

point. Company cars and leased million by private
allowance for expenses
cars with charging equipment company Zouk Capital is
incurred on charging
are eligible for at least 6 months. set to build more
UK equipment is granted to
charging points (Driving
businesses installing
Workplace Chargepoint Grant Electric, 2019)
charging infrastructure
is a voucher-based scheme that
(EAFO, 2019c)
provides 75% of purchase and
installation cost support, up to
maximum of USD650 for each
socket
(EAFO, 2019c)
Note: Information presented may not be comprehensive, as full details of policies may
not be publicly reported.
62
To complement financial programmes, selected governments have also implemented
regulations that would ensure the deployment of EV charging infrastructure. Table 1-
19 provides a review of policy actions, mainly in relation to charging space provision
requirements and charging technology specifications.
Table 1-19 Overview of regulations supporting EV charging infrastructure

deployment in selected leading EV countries
CHARGING SPACE ALLOCATION CHARGING TECHNOLOGY
NORTH AMERICA
Canada EVSE-equipped parking spaces should Each detached, semi-detached, and
(Maw, account for 20% of parking spaces in row homes should support Level 2
2018) buildings charging
US Required charging space in new parking
lots
ASIA
New residences post-2015 are required to
be EVSE-equipped. 10% of parking
spaces in large public buildings need to be
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allocated for EVSE (Hove and Sandalow,
China 2019). N
Cities are required to provide one charge
point for every 8 EVs located no farther
O
than 1-km from city centre (Diwan, 2018)
Public charging stations provided for every Residential buildings are required to
three kilometres within the city and at have one slow charger per owner.
T
every 25 kms on both sides of highways

India Commercial buildings are required to
AF
EV charging provisions account for 20% of install one slow charger for two 2Ws,
all vehicle holding or parking in residential one 3W, three 4Ws, and one fast
and commercial buildings (Singh, 2019). charger for buses
R
EUROPE
New parking garages, parking bays
D
since 2012 are required to have Level

50-75% of parking garages, parking bays
1-2 charging stations
since 2012 and 5-10% of parking spaces
France
in new commercial buildings since 2015
New commercial buildings since 2015
are allocated for EVs
are required to have at least Level 2
charging stations
At least 6% of parking lots and parking
areas of new buildings are required to
Norway
have charging provisions for electric
vehicles
Note: Information presented may not be comprehensive, as full details of policies may
not be publicly reported.
In terms of planning the provision of EV chargers, regulations specifying a set share

of EV parking space vary depending on building type, i.e. multi-unit dwellings,
garages, and/or commercial facilities. Moreover, countries with more progressive
63
standards, e.g. Canada and France, have also set higher capacity chargers as a
minimum requirement. Most EV industry players however, argue mainly for the
affordability benefit of providing different charging options that would sufficiently
correspond to user needs and behaviour. Specifically, as discussed in the previous
section, slow chargers are argued to be more sufficient for home or workplace
charging wherein vehicles are parked for more than 5 hours; medium-powered
chargers could service vehicles for at least 1-2 hours; and fast chargers are more
efficiently used for en-route charging (Kempton et al., 2014). Conversely, increasing
higher-capacity charging stations enhance the viability of long-range electric vehicles.
Planning for the provision of EV chargers therefore signals important implications in
the charging behaviour, travel patterns, socioeconomic capabilities of people.
LY
N
O
T
AF
R
D
64
The discussed EV policies help make sense of the market performance in selected leading EV markets provided in Table 1-20. Overall, the value
of collaborative policies is emphasised wherein market growth leaders have invested significant efforts not only focused on stimulating consumer
demand but also in deploying charging infrastructure.
Table 1-20 Assessing policy actions and EV market share and growth implications
VEHICLE-FOCUSED POLICIES CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE
ELECTRIC ELECTRIC
Subsidies
Tax CAR STOCK CAR STOCK
COUNTRY and Corporate / Utilisation 2012-2017 (In SHARE 2012-
Fringe Power incentive for Purchase Co-
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purchase Income tax tax thousands) 2017 (IEA,
benefits tax commercial subsidies investment
tax deductions incentives (IEA, 2018a) 2018a)
owners
incentives
NORTH AMERICA
N
Canada 45.95 1.1%
US 762.06 1.2%
ASIA
O
China 12277.77 2.2%
India 6.80 0.06%
Japan 205.35 1.0%
S. Korea 25.92 1.3%
T
EUROPE
France 118.77 1.7%
Germany
Norway
UK
AF 109.56
176.31
133.67
1.6%
39.2%
1.7%
Source: Own work
R
Legend
No policy
D
+
++
+++
++++
65
Increasing EVs lead to ramifications in the management of the power grid. Experiences of
market leaders, e.g. France and Norway, highlight the need to undertake advanced planning
and conduct smart grid research in order to ensure the optimal capacity of the electricity
transmission network (Auverlot et al., 2018). General policy measures EV leaders, e.g. U.S.
(Indiana University, 2011) and France, are working towards involve: developing the viability of
off-peak charging through lower electricity prices and increasing the availability of supporting
technologies, and encouraging the movement towards a cleaner power grid to reduce upstream
emissions.
1.7. EV Supply Chain and Industry Trends
Electric vehicles are widely viewed as a disruptive technology that is rapidly changing the
automotive industry (Meckling and Nahm, 2017; McCabe, 2019), as it is mainly expected to
significantly affect parts manufacturing and supply and also, change industry positionings both
in terms of firms and countries. Governments are thus proactively formulating and implementing
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programmes to cash-in on EV development and to an extent, ensure the survival of their
industries (Masiero et al., 2017). This section seeks to summarise the current state of the global
EV and battery supply chain, support and interventions provided by governments, and business
N
models adopted for the sustained development and viable operation of charging networks. In
this way, this section helps provide a resource for the Philippines in crafting an EV
O
manufacturing and industry strategy.
T
1.7.1 Global EV and Battery Supply Chain

AF
The breakdown of EV sales by industry players indicate that Chinese players dominate the
market, overtaking Japanese and European companies in 2016 (Figure 1-24).
R
D
Figure 1-24 EV sales by supplier, 2010-2017

Source: Lutsey et al (2018, p. 5)
66
While global EV market competition has been intensifying in recent years, Tesla and BYD
continue to dominate the market. Figure 1-25 however, indicates that Bayan Automotive
Industries Corporation (BAIC) and Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi surpassed BYD BEV sales, while
BYD rankings is mostly reinforced by its strong PHEV sales. BMW, SAIC Motor Corporation,
Geely, Volvo, and Toyota are the leading five PHEV suppliers in 2018. In general, BEV sales
have surpassed PHEV sales.
LY
N
O
T
AF
R
Figure 1-25 Global volume of passenger BEV, PHEV sales by make, 2018
D
Source: Own illustration, data derived from EV Volumes (2018)
While traditionally dominated by Japanese and Korean firms, the recent EV production boom in
China has resulted in the leadership of China in both EV and EV battery production globally
(Figures 1-26 and 1-27 respectively).
67
Figure 1-26 EV production vs EV sales in selected countries, 2010-2017
*Note: circle size represents global sales share
LY
N
O
T
AF
R
D
Figure 1-27 Battery production by make

Battery production projections in Lutsey et al (2018) further indicates that Chinese

manufacturers and China will strengthen its position in the next few years (Figure 1-28).
68
Figure 1-28 Projected EV battery production capacity by manufacturer (left) and country /
region (right)
LY
1.7.2 Electric Vehicle and Battery Industry Support and Strategies
N
The market dominance of China could be traced to both their aggressive demand creation and
O
charging infrastructure development programs (see section 1.6) and broad EV industry policy
framework, which have further fueled local production (see section 1.7.1).
T
The demand creation programme of China, which amounts to about USD 58 billion in EV
AF
purchase incentives and other forms of support (Dunne, 2019), has also facilitated the
investment of European EV companies, amounting to USD 21.7 billion investment, which dwarfs
the investments towards their own national boundaries (Simon, 2018). MacDougall (2015) and
R
Cuff (2018) indicate that Europe and other countries have recognised the importance of spurring
D
local demand in order to compete in the global EV supply chain. Thus, as discussed in section
1.6, governments have been crafting support programmes.
Despite its leading position in the global automotive market, Europe and the U.S. are currently
EV net importers (Figures 1-26). Moreover, while South Korea and Japan are EV net exporters,
recent annual data indicates that this trend could change as competition to attract EV production
investments intensifies.
Table 1-21 provides an overview of strategies introduced to attract a share of EV investments in

selected countries.
69
Table 1-21 EV industry support programmes in selected countries
North East and South SE
Europe
America Asia Asia
Netherlands
South Korea
Indonesia
Germany
Thailand
Hungary
Canada
Finland
France
Poland
Japan
China
India
US
UK
Industry Support
EV Production
Research and development
support and funding
Government soft loan program
to support investment
Government matching
Investment grant / aid
Production subsidy
LY
Government EV supply tenders
Tax free importation of
production materials and inputs
Real estate tax incentives
Corporate tax incentives
N
O
Conditional tax-free importation
of production equipment
T
EV Battery Production
AF
Research and development

support and funding
Government matching
R
investment / grants
D
Investment-dependent
transferable tax credits
Production / operational subsidy
Tax free importation of
components and inputs
Value added tax incentives
Real estate tax incentives
Manufacturing corporate tax
incentives
Minimum battery production
capacity incentives
Vehicle subsidy and incentives
linked to domestic batteries
Source: Own work, elaborated Lutsey et al (2018, p. 26)
70
China’s leading status in the EV market is also attributed to it having proactive and the most
diverse industry strategies, as shown in Table 1-20, which includes:
▪ Aggressive EV market demand development, including vehicle performance-based

purchase and use incentives and extensive investments in charging infrastructure
(discussed in section 1.6)
▪ Provision of an extensive menu of industry tax incentives
▪ Limiting purchase incentives to vehicles using domestically produced batteries
▪ Securing extensive share of the global EV battery raw material supply
▪ Introducing minimum volume quota for battery production subsidy
▪ Introduction of new energy vehicles (NEV) credit program
Limiting EV purchase incentives to manufacturers that use locally-made batteries did not
only create demand for local battery manufacturers, but also motivated car companies to
produce vehicles locally, which would be more cost-efficient and practical. As shown in
Figure 1-29, the equal rate of EV production with EV battery production signifies the
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success of incentives in coupling the two industries.
N
O
T
AF
R
Figure 1-29 EV vs battery pack production in lead EV countries

D
Source: Lutsey et al (2018, p. 4, 11)
The NEV credit program requires OEMs to earn credits equivalent to 10% of its
conventional vehicle sales. Credits are earned through the sale of NEVs, which includes
BEVs, PHEVs, and FCVs. Credits could be purchased from other companies with
excess credits. Failure to comply would lead to sanctions, i.e. production halts,
disapproval of new models, or cancellation of licenses to sell and operate. The program
basically functions as a form of cross-subsidy for the production of EVs.
In the U.S., the government has extended federal stimulus grants, loans, and state tax credits to
co-finance EV and battery manufacturing investments. Federal investment has amounted to a
combined USD 159 million of federal grants, over USD 2 billion of federal loans, and USD 1.3
billion tax incentives to GM, Nissan, and Tesla to encourage EV production in Michigan,
Tennessee, and California respectively over the years (Lutsey et al., 2018). It has also extended
71
a USD 151 million federal stimulus grant to LG and offered significant state tax incentives also
for LG and Panasonic in order to co-finance battery production with LG in Michigan (Lutsey et
al., 2018).
EV programs of Canada have mostly been focused on demand creation and charging
infrastructure development. Industry development mainly focuses on supporting related
research and development efforts. The Canadian government has granted over about USD 223
million for research and development focusing on energy storage, standards and testing
protocols particularly for the cold weather, new materials for body and component weight
reduction, and powertrain systems modeling (IEA, n.d.). Recent reports claim that the
government is allotting about USD 4 million in support of the local auto industry (Schmidt, 2019).
Assessments indicate that more support to boost local competitiveness is needed (Rubin,
2019).
In Europe, while major OEMS, e.g. BMW, Renault, Nissan, are producing and mulling the
production of EVs, e.g. Kia (Malan, 2019) and Volkswagen (Automotive News Europe, 2018),
LY
the EV output of the region remains significantly limited compared to China. The EU Parliament
has recognised the need to embark on a unified, integrated approach to compete. The approach
of the EU thus focuses on creating an independent value chain for EVs in the region combined
N
with enhanced EV demand generation strategies (Cuff, 2018). The integrated strategy involves
O
the creation of eco-mobility concepts and business models that complement industry and
market incentives (MacDougall, 2015). Increasing EV regional demand through additional
market support and innovative eco-mobility business models is expected to result in increased
T
EV production investments and output.

AF
In support of its independent value chain direction, the European Commission has recently
formulated a strategic action plan (SAP) to challenge world players on battery production
R
through interventions targeted at maximising local raw materials, research and development,
establishment of standards and regulations, and trade and skills development (Stutt, 2019). The
D
European automotive industry consists of a highly strategic mix of strengths among its member
countries. More advanced countries (e.g. Germany, France, and the Netherlands), specialise on
battery research and technological developments. Countries in Central Europe (e.g. Poland and
Hungary) having lower operational costs well offer complementary efforts in the assembly of EV
batteries, thereby enabling the competitiveness of the region in the global market.
Considering that China has secured the bulk of cobalt supply globally to support EV battery
production, battery industry strategy of Europe has focused on a more technology-driven
approach. Specifically, Europe focuses on the research and production of battery critical
components (e.g. anodes and cathodes) (Steitz, 2018) including research on and
commercialisation of solid state batteries (MacDougall, 2015) among others. It is worth noting
that the governments of France and Germany have invested the most on EV-related research
and development efforts among global EV leaders. As a result, France and Germany are ranked
as the top and second, respectively, in terms of state R&D funding and overall local
72
technological improvements; and ranked second and third, respectively, in terms of EV market
development based on the E-Mobility Index in 20182 (Bernhart et al., 2018).
Increasing government attention and support for EVs in Europe has catalysed interest to invest
in battery production in the region. Recognising German technological leadership, China’s
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) has announced its plan to establish a new
plant in Germany and has engaged in bilateral discussions with a local company for a possible
co-investment arrangement on battery production (Kastner, 2019). Moreover, government
support, including investment grants, employment subsidies and tax exemptions coupled with
low operating costs and close proximity to Asia has also made Central Europe an attractive hub
for EV assembly and battery production (Fitch Solutions, 2019). As a result, SK Innovation,
Samsung SDI, and Daimler have increased investments on EV battery production in the region,
while Mitsubishi Electric is set to start production of motors and inverters for its Outlander PHEV
in the Czech Republic (Fitch Solutions, 2019).
The leadership of Japan has been a result not only of its market and charging infrastructure
LY
development programmes (section 1.6) but also its support programmes focused on facilitating
the ease of targeted technologies entering the market through research and development,
ensuring the competitiveness of raw materials specifically for battery production, human
N
resource development, local and global promotions of the targeted technology (Ahman, 2006;
O
METI, 2018a; and APEC, 2017). Reports indicate that USD 31 million has been granted to
industry, academe, and other research institutes for its ‘Rising Industry II’ research program,
while its ‘All Solid-State Battery’ program received a research grant of USD 16 million (METI,
T
2018b). Government funds supported demonstration projects and battery research and
AF
development initiatives. Costs for research, prototyping, demonstration, and pre-

commercialisation are shared with the industry, with the industry cost share increasing in the
latter stages of the initiatives.
R
Moreover, the Japanese government has also invested in research and demonstration
D
programmes on wireless charging and V2G systems. Programs to develop human resource and
technology levels of parts suppliers in order to ensure their continued relevance in the emerging
supply chain have also been introduced. Government bodies have also been closely engaged in
global EV policy dialogues and have been lobbying for the harmonisation of charging standards
to ensure the favourable positioning of Japanese firms (METI, 2018a).
South Korea has improved its cost efficiency due to its expanded EV portfolio, which resulted in
its national rank as third in terms of local technological improvements, one place ahead of
Japan based on the E-Mobility Index 2018 (Bernhart et al., 2018). In addition, R&D funding has
been focused on EV-related technologies, which contrasts with Japan that dedicates
considerable focus on fuel cells.
2
The E-Mobility Index assesses leading EV countries according to EV-related: (1) technological
competitiveness implemented by domestic OEMs; (2) domestic industry production; and (3) EV market
size based on customer demand
73
Key policy actions that have also contributed to the growth of the EV industry in South Korea
include the: (1) Law for Development and Deployment of Eco-Friendly Vehicles 2004; (2) Low
Carbon Green Growth Law 2008; and (3) Strategy for Developing Green Car, which convened
the Green Car Forum (APEC, 2017; SAGPA, 2013). The Green Car Forum acts as the advisory
council on the detailed development of a vehicle and parts industry roadmap that outlines in
detail R&D measures and performance targets including demonstration and mass production
schedules for various vehicle variants and components. Technology initiatives strongly
supported by the Korean government includes R&D on wireless charging and EV standards
development and testing. Nurturing programmes have also been implemented for green car
experts. To maximise impacts and learning, EV development and infrastructure efforts have
been focused in selected cities, referred to as ‘EV leading cities’.
Purchase subsidies granted by the Korean government was initially limited to locally produced
EVs, however, eventually opened up to imported units, with the view of promoting an open
market intended to benefit Korean car companies. Despite growing support to foreign
LY
manufacturers, lack of reciprocity to benefit from other countries, particularly China, instigated
complaints from the local industry (Suk-yee, 2019). Korean battery companies are strongly keen
on supplying the requirements of the European market as the region implements stronger
support for EVs (Yang, 2018). N
O
In India, the government couples incentives with battery capacity and minimum local content
thresholds focused on public transport and two-wheelers, as discussed in section 1.6. To
T
reinforce its consumer incentive programme, government-owned company Bharat Heavy

Electricals plans to invest on a ‘Gigafactory’ battery manufacturing plant with a production
AF
capacity of up to 30 GWh per year (Hampel, 2019).

R
While importation tariffs for EV batteries have also been introduced to ensure local
competitiveness in battery manufacturing, importation tariffs for EV parts and components have
D
been reduced to enhance attractiveness of the Indian market among global vehicle companies.
It is worth noting that automotive companies have started to tap Indian facilities to produce EV
components, e.g. electric motors and transmission supplied to Renault (Ghosh, 2018), which
directly produced EVs in India eventually.
In an effort to boost local demand for private EVs, the Indian government bid out electric car
contracts to supply electric vehicles for government use (Saluja, 2018). Major local vehicle
players have thus been prompted to join the EV bandwagon, with Tata Motors announcing the
introduction of EV counterparts of their ICE models (Thakkar and Chaliawala, 2019). Maruti
Suzuki has also commenced road testing of its Wagon R EV, which is highlighted as a best-
selling car in the market at less than USD 10,000 (Dzikiy, 2019b).
Government contracts to supply electric buses have also been bid out in selected dense cities.
About ~USD 78 million was granted to a joint venture between Goldstone, BYD, and Tata
74
Motors for the manufacture of 520 electric buses to serve ten Indian cities (Randall, 2018; UITP,
2019). Forty buses have been delivered to each city and are set to be operated (UITP, 2019).
In Southeast Asia, Thailand has taken the lead in attracting EV production investments due to
their larger consumer base, unparalleled industry incentives, and a more supportive industry
environment. Table 1-22 provides a summary of local vehicle demand, key EV developments,
industry and consumer incentive profiles in selected Southeast Asian countries.
Table 1-22 Summary of industry profile and programmes in Southeast Asia

Item Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam
Annual Local ~3.45 million ~1.3 million ~0.56 million ~0.4 million
Demand (Marklines, 2019) (Marklines, 2019) (Marklines, 2019) (Pearson, 2018)
Reported - HEV models locally - A 50,000 - Great Wall VinGroup, local
Industry assembled: Toyota tonnes annual Motors eyeing leading
Developments Camry, Nissan X- nickel smelting Malaysia as conglomerate,
Trail and Honda capacity plant to its EV has formed
LY
Accord since 2009 be built for EV production Vinfast as its
(Rastogi, 2018) nickel battery and car
production. distribution manufacturing
- PHEV assembly of
BMWs since 2016
Output wouldN
be exported to
hub in ASEAN
(Maierbrugger
arm. VinFast
activities
O
(Rastogi, 2018) China (Daly, , 2017) include:
2018)
- Toyota, Nissan, - Geely - partnership
T
Honda, Mazda, - Hyundai plans Holding with EDAG

Mercedes Benz, to develop a Group of
AF
German
BMW, SAIC-CP plant for a China Engineering
Motor Company, nickel-cobalt acquired 50% company to
and Thai-Japan joint joint venture stake in develop BEVs
R
venture FOMM project in Proton (Pearson,

received approval Indonesia Holdings Bhd 2018)
D
for new EVs, PHEVs (Soeriaatmadja, (Foon, 2019) - Planned

and HEVs 2019) launch of 3000
production electric buses
(Marklines, 2018) - Volvo and in 2019 as a
Renault EV result of the
- Battery production investments in partnership
investment EV production, with Siemens
applications, including the Vietnam that
including BMW construction of supplied
investments on a factories technology
battery factory, are (Listiyorini, and parts
being evaluated 2019) (Sustainable
(Sammy, 2017)
Bus, 2019)
- Local car company, - Partnership
with LG Chem
Vera Automotive,
to locally
founded in 2015, produce
75
launched its first EV batteries for
in 2017 (Sammy, electric
2017) scooters and
electric cars
(Randall,
2019)
- Partnership
with Bosch
and LG Chem
to
manufacture
and roll out e-
scooters by
2020 (Pastoor,
2018)
Manufacturing Corporate tax - Planned fiscal - Income tax Corporate tax
Tax Incentives incentives (Rastogi, incentives exemption for
2018) offering tax cuts 5-10 years. - 10%
LY
to EV battery Exemption is corporate
- For BEVs: 8-year and car offered to income tax
tax exemption, and producers and manufacturers deduction for
an additional year preferential tariff of EV critical 15 years
for each local key
component.
agreementsN
with countries
components,
parts, Others
O
Maximum of 10 that have high batteries, and
years. EV demand battery - 0% import
T
- For PHEVs: 3-year (Silviana and management tax on

tax exemption, and Potkin, 2019) systems accessories
AF
an additional year (Malaysian and spare

for each local key Investment parts
component. Development
Authority, (Pastoor, 2018)
R
Maximum of 6 years
2019)
Others (Rastogi,
D
2018)
- Duty exemption on
raw materials for
exported products
- Tariff-free
importation of
machineries
- Free trade
agreements
- Eastern Economic
Corridor initiative for
EVs focuses on
manufacturing parts
and process.
Incentives for
76
investors include:
income tax
exemption up to 15
years, financial
incentives for R&D,
human resource
development, permit
to own land, ease of
entry of foreign
visas and work
permits
- 10 components are
eligible for 8-year
corporate tax
holidays
Consumer Excise Taxes Current
Subsidy and (Rastogi, 2018) Importation
Sales Tax Tariff:
LY
Incentives - For BEVs, 5-6 years
exemption - ASEAN, South
- For PHEVs and Korea, and
China: tax-
HEVs:
• < 200 g/km:
N exempt
- Japan: 4%
O
12.5% reduction
• < 150 g/km: 10% - US: 70%
reduction
T
• < 100 g/km: 5% Excise Tax

reduction - 15-70%
AF
Note: Applicable for Note:

models utilizing locally Government
reported to
R
built batteries
provide subsidy
to locally made
D
EVs, however,
no details are
provided yet
(Pastoor, 2018)
77
1.7.3 Battery Raw Material Supply Chain
Batteries are the most expensive and most critical component and provide the greatest added
value in EV production, which attracts countries and companies to invest in the market. Raw
material supply is one of the determinants in the race to battery production leadership. Different
lithium batteries are composed of different materials in different amounts. Figure 1-30 provides
the components for the different types of cathodes.
100%
2% 8%
90% 17%
28% 26% 26%
80%
70% 63%
60% 73%
89% 30% 36% 54% 72%
50% 94% 45%
40%
30% 30% 27%
LY
20% 30% 18% 18%
14% 9%
10%
11% 11% 7% 6% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11%
0%
LCO NCA LFP LMO NMC
(111)N NMC
(433)
NMC
(532)
NMC
(622)
NMC
(811)
O
Lithium Cobalt Nickel Manganese Phosphorus Iron Aluminum
T
Figure 1-30 Battery cathode material composition

Source: BNEF and Canaccord Genuity estimates, cited in Jones (2019)
AF
As discussed in section 1.4, battery developments have focused on rolling out higher density
batteries, which resulted in the popularity of NMC and NCA formulations. To recall discussions
R
in section 1.4, while more modern battery chemistries provide significant potential in increasing
D
energy densities and cost savings, commercialisation is projected to take longer. The EV
industry is thus expected to depend on NMC and NCA chemistries for a significant amount of
time. Figure 1-31 provides the amount of materials required per kWh capacity of different
battery cathode chemistry. As shown in the succeeding figures, dependence on NMC and NCA
batteries have pressured the global cobalt and nickel supply and have provided a competitive
advantage for countries controlling the supply.
78
8
7
6
5
kg/kWh
4
3
2
1
0
LCO LMO LFP NMC NMC NMC NMC NMC NCA
(111) (433) (532) (622) (811)
Aluminum Cobalt Copper

Manganese Nickel Iron
LY
Lithium Carbonate Spherical Graphite Separator
Figure 1-31 Cathode material quantity requirement for different battery chemistries
N
Source: Own elaboration based on Canaccord Genuity estimates, cited in Jones (2019)
O
Majority of the global cobalt supply is sourced from Congo (Figure 1-32), which is not surprising
considering that Condo owns 50% of global cobalt reserves (Figure 1-33)
T
AF
2% 2% 2% 0%
2% Congo (Kinshasa)
3%
3% Other countries
3% Australia
R
Cuba
Russia
D
4%
Canada
4%
Madagascar
4% Philippines
5% China
66%
Morocco
Papua New Guinea
South Africa
United States
Figure 1-32 Country share of mined cobalt supply 2019

Source: Own illustration, data derived from Barrera (2019)
79
1% 1% 0%0% 1%
2% Congo (Kinshasa)
Australia
4% Other countries
4%
Cuba
4%
Canada
7% Philippines
49% Russia
Madagascar
9%
China
Papua New Guinea
United States
18% Morroco
South Africa
LY
Figure 1-33 Country share of global cobalt reserves 2018
Source: Own illustration, data derived from USGS (2019)
N
Only a small amount of cobalt is directly extracted from ores and are produced as by-products
of copper or nickel mining operations (Figure 1-34). Congo cobalt supply is mostly sourced from
O
copper deposits, while supply of China, Canada, and Russia are mostly sourced from nickel
sulphide deposits. Cobalt of Australia, Philippines, Cuba, Papua New Guinea, and Madagascar
T
are initially mostly in the form of nickel-cobalt laterite (Goad, 2019).

AF
Primary cobalt
mining
2%
R
D
Nickel mining
38%
Copper mining
60%
Figure 1-34 Cobalt source by mine type 2019

Source: Global Energy Metals Corp. (2019)
80
Despite having minimal reserves, China has the largest cobalt refining capacity in the world.
Through its global network of secured cobalt supply, China produces more than half of the
global refined cobalt supply based on estimates (Cobalt Institute, 2019; Jones, 2019). Eight of
the largest mining companies in Congo are China-owned, which in total, represents about half
of Congo’s output, and accounts for almost three-fourth of global production (Swami, 2019).
Moreover, China has contracted with global cobalt giant Glencore for about half of global
production based on 2018 estimates (Swami, 2019).
While nickel is significantly more abundant and less expensive than cobalt, future bottlenecks in
supply are foreseen as only class 1 nickel or high-purity products produced commonly through
High-Pressure Acid Leaching (HPAL) processing could only be used in lithium-ion batteries
(Gait, 2018). Figures 1-35 and 1-36 provide the latest global supply and reserves data available,
respectively.
2% 2% Indonesia
1%
2% 2% Philippines
LY
2% France (New Caledonia)
2%
Russia
3%
24% Other Countries
5% N Australia
Canada
O
China
7% Brazil
Colombia
T
7% 15% Cuba
Finland
AF
Guatemala
8%
Madagascar
9%
9% South Africa
R
United States
D
Figure 1-35 Country share of global nickel supply 2018

81
3% 2% 2% 0% 0%
3% Indonesia
Australia
Brazil
4% 20%
Finland
5% Russia
France (New Caledonia)
5% Other countries
Colombia
Philippines
6%
18% South Africa
Canada
6% China
Guatemala
7% Madagascar
11% United States
9%
Cuba
Figure 1-36 Country share of global nickel reserve 2019
LY
Source: Own illustration, data derived from USGS (2019); Finland value based on Nurmi and
Rasilainen (2015)
N
In addition to its presence in cathodes, lithium is also the main component of electrolytes in
lithium-based batteries. Australia, Chile, China, and Argentina have been dominating the global
O
production of lithium, accounting for a combined output of 95% of the global output (Figure 1-
37).
T
1% 1%
AF
0% Australia
2% 1%
0% Chile
7% China
R
Argentina
9%
D
Zimbabwe
Brazil
19% Namibia
60%
Portugal
Finland
United States
Figure 1-37 Country shares of global lithium supply 2018

Vast reserves (Figure 1-38) have supported their supply shares. New lithium deposit discoveries
expect Finland to be part of the global supply chain in the near future. South American
82
countries, i.e. Argentina, Chile, and Brazil derive lithium from brine, while lithium in Australia
comes in the form of hard rock. Globally, lithium is commonly derived from brine.
1% 0%
1% 1% Chile
0%
0%
Australia
7%
Argentina
China
14%
Finland
Portugal
57% Zimbabwe
19%
Brazil
Namibia
United States
LY
Figure 1-38 Country shares of global lithium reserve 2019
Source: Own illustration based on USGS (2019); Finland values based on Björkman (2019);
N
Namibia values based on Johnston (2018)
China is nearly in control of half of the global lithium supply and Chinese companies have
O
continued to come on strong in acquiring stakes in mining lithium in Australia and South
America (Chazan, 2019). German companies have also started to acquire supply contracts in
T
South America for the industrial production of lithium (Nienaber, 2018). As competition to
AF
access global reserves increases, countries are also starting to look towards local and/or closer
sources, with Europe directing its attention on Germany, Finland, Czech Republic, Portugal, and
Sweden (Chazan, 2019). The increased global demand for lithium has been projected to result
in oversupply in the short-term and could possibly bring down commodity price (Chazan, 2019).
R
Projections are highly contingent on how the global EV supply would turn out.
D
83
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2 EV in the Philippines
2.1 Local Electric Vehicle Stock and Models Available
The stock of EVs in the Philippines is mostly concentrated on electric motorcycles and electric
tricycles (‘e-trikes’), while electric cars and electric utility vehicles (i.e. e-jeepneys) only account
for a marginal share. Figure 2-1 provides the latest available official data on the breakdown of
total electric vehicles nationwide. To note, the registration of light electric vehicles has only been
decided recently. The data thus represents officially registered units, which is believed to be
less than the actual EVs operating on the road. Registration data is also unclear in terms of
coverage in including hybrid electric vehicles and lacks information on the breakdown of electric
car variants (e.g. SUV, sedan).
64, 3%
89, 3%
LY
e-trike
952, 38%
N e-motorcycle
electric UV
O
1420, 56%
electric car
T
AF
Figure 2-1. EV registrations in the Philippines, 2017

Source: Own illustration, data derived from LTO (2018a)
R
Moreover, following the PUV modernization programme and the e-tricycle donations from the
D
DOE, e-trikes and e-jeepneys have been significantly added to the national EV stock
(summarised in Table 2-1).
Table 2-1. Recent e-trike and e-jeepney deployments, as of 31 May 2019
Site E-Trikes E-Jeepney

Metro Manila Units Source Units Source
Las Piñas 100 Manila Standard (2019a) 13 CNN Philippines (2019)
Makati 153 Laurel (2019a)
Project interview with
Mandaluyong 5
EVAP (2019)
Manila Standard
Manila 180 15 San Juan (2018)
(2019b);
3
Units serve Makati City to Mandaluyong City
98
EVAP (2019)
Muntinlupa 150 Carmudi PH (2019) 43
EVAP (2019)
Parañaque 33 Manila Standard (2019c)
Tapnio (2018);
Quezon City 88 Project interview with 4
EVAP (2019)
EVAP (2019)
Luzon Units Source Units Source
Antipolo 25
EVAP (2019)
Batangas 33 EVAP (2019)
Bicol 97 EVAP (2019)
LY
Cavite 38 Project interview with 2
EVAP (2019)
EVAP (2019)
Isabela 2
Palawan
Visayas
59
Units
Politiko (2019)
Source
N Units Source
O
Boracay 200 Cabato (2019) 4 Cabato (2019)
Cebu City 25 Laurel (2019a)
T
Tacloban 45 Andres (2018)

Mindanao Units Source Units Source
AF
General Santos 7 PNA (2018) 20 IFM (2018)

Marawi 200 Rivera (2018)
R
COUNTRY TOTAL 1,151 252

D
Note: Information may not be comprehensive as adoptions may not all be publicly reported.
Source: Own work, information based on cited sources
While Table 2-1 is limited to public transport fleets, e-jeepneys and e-trikes have also been
popularised as private shuttle services within or around companies (e.g. Manila Electric
Company), hotels, and academic institutions (e.g. De La Salle University, Ateneo De Manila
University).
Table 2-2 and Table 2-3 respectively provides e-jeepney and e-trike models documented
locally.
Table 2-2. E-jeepney models, as of March 2019

Nominal Battery Range On-board
Passenger Battery Charging
EV Model Voltage Capacity (km per full charger
Capacity Type mode
(V) (kWh) charge) rating
99
(kwh)
Lithium Iron
GET slow
16 Phosphate 115-144 18 100 4
Comet 1 charging
(LiFEPO4)
slow and
GET
20 Lithium Ion 100 16.8 80 fast 3
Comet 2
charging
GET
No data available
Comet 3
Le’ Guider
slow
EJ-120 19 Lithium Ion 96 28.8 150
charging
(Sarao)
Le’ Guider fast

2 Lithium Ion 80
MC-100 charging
LY
PhUV slow
22 Lithium Ion 72 23.04 3
Adarna charging
PhUV
Alamid
13 Lead Acid 84
N 18.48 60 – 70
slow
charging
3
O
PhUV slow
22 Lithium Ion 72 23.04 3
T
Haribon charging
AF
slow
PhUV charging
15 Lead Acid 84 18.48 60 – 70 3
Musang battery
R
swapping
29 12 (Lead- 21.6 (Lead
D
Star8 120-150 slow and

(20 seated) Lead Acid Acid) / 72 Acid) /
Cityline e- (fan); 80-120 fast 1.44
+ (9 Lithium Ion (Lithium 36.28
jeepney (A/C) charging
standing) Ion) (Lithium Ion)
144
120-150
24 (19 (Lead 21.6 (Lead slow and
Star8 e- Lead Acid (without
seated + 5 Acid) / 72 Acid) / 36.28 fast 1.44
jeepney Lithium Ion A/C); 80-120
standing) (Lithium (Lithium Ion) charging
(A/C)
Ion)
96 (Lead 120-150
21.6 (Lead
Star8 mini Lead Acid Acid) / 72 (without slow
15 Acid) / 36.28 1.92
e-jeepney Lithium Ion (Lithium A/C); 80-120 charging
(Lithium Ion)
Ion) (A/C)
ToJo
slow
Mandaragi 17 Lithium Ion 96 14.4 40 – 50
charging
t (Class 1)
100
ToJo slow
16 Lithium Ion 72 7.2 35 – 50
Limbas S charging
35 (slope);
ToJo slow
20 Lithium Ion 114 22.8 50 (flat
Limbas X charging
terrain)
Source: Own work, information taken from various company interviews
Table 2-3. E-trike models, as of March 2019

Nominal
Passenger Battery Battery Charging
EV Model Voltage
capacity Type Capacity (kWh) Mode
(V)
55.2 or
BEMAC 68VM 6 Lithium Ion 4.40 or 3.30 slow charging
82.7
Lead Acid battery
Elaia EGV-5000 8 48 5.76
Lithium Ion swapping
LY
EVWealth battery
6 Lithium Ion 48 1.92
eTrikeBayan swapping
Just Go Tribrid01
Others fast charging
(hybrid prototype)
KEA Bailey 6 Lithium Ion
N 60 4.80 slow charging
O
battery
KYTO e-Spark 3 2 Lithium Ion 5.40
swapping
slow and fast
T
Le’ Guider ET-100 6 Lithium Ion 48 3.46

charging
AF
slow and fast

Le’ Guider ET-100C 4 Lithium Ion 48 3.46
charging
Le’ Guider MingHong slow and fast
2 Lithium Ion
(21 variants) charging
R
PhUV eTrike 3 Lead Acid slow charging

D
PinoyAko Delica 3 Lead Acid 48 2.16 slow charging

PinoyAko Phoenix 6 Lithium Ion 60 4.50 slow charging
battery
sunEtrike 4 Lead Acid 12 1.44
swapping
Star8 FG Hybrid 6 Lead Acid 60 7.20 slow charging
Lead Acid Lead Acid: 16.2 slow and fast
Star8 Luxury Trike 6 72
Lithium Ion Lithium Ion: 36.29 charging
Star8 W5 4 Lead Acid 48 5.76 slow charging
Star8 Small Cargo
Lead Acid 48 1.54 slow charging
Tuk-Tuk X1
Star8 Large Cargo
Lead Acid 60 7.20 slow charging
Tuk-Tuk
Tamaraw (for cargo) Lead Acid 48 2.16 slow charging
101
slow charging
ToJo 7 Lithium Ion 60 5.10 battery
swapping
slow charging
ToJo 6 Lithium Ion 60 3.60 battery
swapping
For electric cars, Table 2-4 provides a list of models currently available or scheduled to be
available locally within the year.
Table 2-4. Electric cars, SUVs, vans, and pick-up models, as of March 2019
Max.
Nominal Battery Fast
Passenger Range Charging Charging
EV Model Voltage Capacity charging
capacity (km) mode Rate (kW)-
(V) (kWh) time (hrs)
LY
Standards
BEVs
Mitsubishi I- slow and fast Not Known
MEIV
4 330 16 N 95
charging
0.5
O
slow and fast 70 -
Hyundai Ioniq 5 360 28 280 0.75
charging CHAdeMO
Hyundai slow and fast 50 - CCS
T
5 230 64 415 1.2

Kona EV charging
AF
slow and fast 22 - GBT

BYD E6 5 316.8 61.4 300 2.5
charging
slow and fast 50 -
Nissan Leaf 5 384 40 243 0.5
R
charging CHAdeMO
Nissan slow and fast 50 - CCS
5 NK4 60-90 338 0.75
D
Sylphy ZE charging
Chevrolet slow and fast 50 - CCS
5 350 60 383 1.5
Bolt 2017 charging
PHEVs
Mitsubishi slow and fast 22 -
5 300 12 35 0.5
Outlander charging CHAdeMO
Hyundai Ioniq slow and fast 3.3 - CCS
5 240 8.9 46
PHEV charging
BYD Qin slow and fast Not Known
5 500 13 70
sedan hybrid charging
BYD Tang slow and fast Not Known
7 18.4 80 1
hybrid charging
4
Not known
102
Table 2-5 provides documented light electric vehicle models in the Philippines.
Table 2-5. Two-wheeler, three-wheeler, and quadricycle models, as of March 2019

Battery
Seating Nominal
Name of the EV Model Battery Type Capacity
Capacity Voltage (V)
(kWh)
Two-wheelers
AIMA Candy 2 Lead Acid 45 0.90
AIMA King Loder 2 Lead Acid 55 1.76
AIMA MU-Ptlar 2 Lead Acid 48 0.58
AlMA Sunra Grace 2 Lithium Ion 48 1.15
Bauman Siberian 2 Others 60 1.20
Bauman Sphinx 2 Others 48 0.58
California E-Bike Pasadena 1 Lead Acid 48 0.58
California E-Bike Reedly 1 Lead Acid 48 0.58
LY
California E-Bike Sta. Monica 1 Lead Acid 48 0.58
California E-Bike Vista 1 Lead Acid 48 0.58
California E-Bike Washington 1 Lead Acid 48 0.96
California E-Bike Zyklos 338
GOGO Stride
1
2
N Lead Acid
Lead Acid
36
60
0.43
1.20
O
GOGO Zion 2 Lead Acid 72 1.44
GXSUN S2 2 Others 48 or 60 1.20
GXSUN Vespa 2 Others 60 1.20
T
HPZ Golden Eagle 2 Lead Acid 48 0.96

AF
HPZ Solitary 2 Lead Acid 48 0.96

Kenwei Bagona 2 Others 48 0.58
Kenwei Dalina 2 Others 48 0.58
Kenwei KW0939 2 Others 48 0.96
R
Kenwei Yna 1 Others 48 0.96

D
JONSON Mini Cruz 2 Lead Acid 48 1.44

JONSON Warrior 2 Lead Acid 48 or 60 1.80
PinoyAko Paseo 2 Lead Acid 60 1.20
PinoyAko Patrol 2 Lead Acid 60 1.20
PinoyAko Police Cab 2 Lead Acid 48 0.96
PinoyAko Pormado 2 Lead Acid 48 0.96
PinoyAko Primera 2 Lead Acid 48 0.96
PinoyAko Puwersa 2 Lead Acid 60 1.20
RFM Auro 2 Lead Acid 48 0.58
RFM Eagle Z 2 Lead Acid 60 or 72 1.20
SmartBikes Phoenix 1 Lead Acid 48 0.96
SmartBikes Trooper 2 Lead Acid 48 0.96
Lead Acid /
888Street Newton 2 48
Lithium Ion 0.96
Three-wheelers
Bauman Bobcat A1 2 Others 60 1.20
103
Bauman Forster 1 Others 48 0.96
California E-Bike Hamilton 1 and 2 1 Lead Acid 48 0.96
GOGO Cargo 3 Lead Acid 60 1.20
GOGO Trike 1 Lead Acid 48 0.96
GXSUN Trike Cruiser 3 Others 48 0.96
Kenwei Akona 3 Others 48 0.96
Kenwei Ditona 1 Others 48 0.96
Kenwei Kanina 2 Others 48 0.96
Kenwei Sakina 3 Others 48 or 60 1.20
HPZ Amore Eagle 2 Lead Acid 48 0.96
HPZ Heroine Eagle 1 Lead Acid 48 0.96
JONSON Lightning 2 Lead Acid 48 or 60 1.80
JONSON Neptune 2 Lead Acid 48 or 60 1.80
RFM Bezuty 3S V3 3 Lead Acid 60 1.20
RFM New 3-wheel 2 Lead Acid 48 0.96
Star8 Darvros 3 & 4 1 Lead Acid 48 0.96
Star8 Darvros-F3 1 Lead Acid 48 0.96
LY
Star8 Electric Cart 1 Lead Acid 48 2.16
Star8 Garbage Cart 1 Lead Acid 48 0.96
Star8 Solar Freezer Trike 1 Lithium Ion 48 0.00
Star8 Multi-Functional Catering
Trike
1 N Lithium Ion
48
2.16
O
Star8 Solar Refrigeration Trike 1 Lithium Ion 48 2.16
Star8 Zoot Scoot 1 Lead Acid 48 0.96
Quadricycle
T
Star8 Darvros-DDB 2 Lead Acid 48 0.96

AF
Star8 Darvros-SDB 1 Lead Acid 60 1.2

Source: Own work
R
2.2 Electric Vehicle Performance (Range and Energy Economy) and Cost
D
Information on the energy economy of electric cars and electric SUVs is not locally available,
thus, testing on selected units were conducted within the framework of this study in order to
generate energy economy values. Testing involved two models of battery electric mini-compact
units and several units of a mid-size SUV PHEV model. On-road dynamometer testing were
conducted on the units. Results indicate that the measured vehicle range and energy economy
of the locally tested units are slightly elevated than the values of the same models tested in the
U.S. based on the U.S. EPA database (Teoalida, 2019) (Table 2-6).
104
Table 2-6. Metro Manila EV testing summary results
All Electric Range Electric Drive Energy Economy
(km) (km/kWh)
Vehicle type
Metro Manila U.S. Metro Manila U.S.
On-Road Test EPA Database On-Road Test EPA Database
BEV 99.01 95 6.43 5.88
PHEV 36.98 35 4.07 5.59
Source: Own work
In the absence of more comprehensive experiences of EVs in local roads, the U.S. EPA values
could provide a conservative basis for the performance of EVs in local roads.
Tables 2-7 and 2-8 provide manufacturer claimed energy economy of e-trike and e-jeepney,
respectively.
Table 2-7. Electric tricycle energy economy
LY
Model Peak Power (kW) Energy Economy (km/kWh)
Model 1 19.5
Model 2 3 9
Model 3 7.5 N 15.6
O
Model 4 5 28.9
Source: Own work, information based on project interview with EVAP (2019)
T
Table 2-8. Electric jeepney energy economy

AF
Passenger Peak Power Energy Economy

Model Jeepney Type
Capacity (kW) (km/kWh)
Model 1 Class 2 19 3.26
R

Model 3 Class 2 21 20 2.08
D
Model 4 Class 2 20 15 2.60

Model 7 Class 1 5.21
Model 8 Class 1 16 30 6.94
Source: Own work, information based on project interview with EVAP (2019)
Moreover, Table 2-9 provides the range of BEV and PHEV cost multipliers relative to
conventional vehicles based on projected local retail price. The projected local retail price was
based on an EV cost model developed and validated using the initial retail prices announced for
OEM EVs currently sold or to be released soon in the country. The EV models planned for local
roll out soon are from China, Europe, Japan, Korea, and the U.S. Differing importation tariffs
would therefore be applied to EVs entering the country depending on trade agreements with the
source country. Trading tariffs range from 5% to 30%.
105
Table 2-9. Projected local BEV and PHEV cost multipliers
Vehicle Variant BEV PHEV
Mini-compact sedan 1.95-2.41 1.56-1.93
Subcompact sedan 1.84-2.28 1.47-1.91
Compact sedan 1.81-2.28 1.54-1.91
Full-size sedan 1.69-2.09 1.42-1.75
MPV 1.84-2.28 1.54-1.91
Pick-up 1.84-2.28 1.54-1.91
Crossover / Compact SUV 1.69-2.09 1.42-1.71
Mid-size SUV 1.69-2.09 1.42-1.71
Full-size SUV 1.69-2.09 1.42-1.99
Van 1.69-2.09 1.42-1.75
Note: Lower bound values were based on a 5% importation tariff rate (units from Korea) and
upper bound values were based on a 30% importation tariff rate (units from MFNs)
Source: Own work
LY
2.3 EV-Related Government Initiatives
This section presents government initiatives relevant to EVs.N
O
Table 2-10. Current and planned EV programmes of government agencies
Government Planned
T
Role and current programmes

agency interventions
AF
Department of Focus: electric vehicle deployment, charging infrastructure, - Standardisation

Energy and IEC of charging
stations
R
- Lead implementing agency of the Market Transformation (Saulon, 2019)5

through the Introduction of Energy Efficient Vehicles
D
project covers:
• Installation of solar charging stations through the ADB
Clean Technology Fund
• Deployment of electric tricycles in various locales, i.e.
Marawi, Boracay, Brooke’s Point, Muntinlupa, Las
Piñas, Pateros, Valenzuela, Mandaluyong
• Deployment of electric vehicles to various government
agencies (Arayata, 2018)
- E-Power Mo IEC activities on the efficient use of energy
sources
Department of Focus: adoption of electric vehicles for public transport use
Transportation
5 DOE aims to set a single charging protocol. However, discussions with industry, which lobby for more flexible
standards are ongoing.
106
- Public Utility Vehicle Modernisation Programme (PUVMP)
encourages electrified alternatives. The programme
covers route rationalisation, development of vehicle
standards for replacement units, financing support, and
operations improvements. The programme targets to
upgrade about 200000 PUJs until 2024, wherein 10%
would be electric (Tadeo, 2018a). In relation to EV
development, the programme has:
• Developed EV standards
• Deployed electric jeepneys to Cebu, which is expected
to serve about 40,000 passengers (Laurel, 2019b)
• Launched a new developmental route from Makati to
Mandaluyong that would be served by electric jeepneys
(DOTr, 2019)
- Low Carbon Urban Transport System joint project with the
UNDP intends to create an enabling environment for the
LY
commercialisation of low carbon urban transport systems,
including electric vehicles. The project more specifically
promotes the development, transfer, and deployment of
N
environmentally-sound technologies mainly through
O
research, IEC measures, inter-agency government
coordination (Pabustan, 2019)
Department of Focus: institutionalisation of electric vehicle standards, fiscal - Plan to reduce
T
Trade and incentives, industry development tariffs on

AF
Industry automotive
- Under the PUVMP, the DTI-Bureau of Product Standards inputs for
(BPS) supports the formulation of and formalises the foreign
R
applicable standards for electric vehicles in the local investors,

market particularly with
D
- PUVMP also forms part of the Comprehensive Automotive South Korea, to

Resurgence Strategy (CARS) programme (DOE, 2018), localise the
which provides incentives to platform suppliers and manufacture
bodybuilders to produce EVs for public transport and assembly
- Industry Development Program covers the implementation of electric
of the e-vehicles roadmap, which involves tackling specific vehicles (DOE,
industry issues, e.g. production and infrastructure, policies 2019)
and regulations, promotions, financing and resources,
through the electric vehicles working group
Technical Focus: capacity development for EV after-sales services
Education and
Skills - Under the PUVMP, technical regulations are being
Development developed that enables EV maintenance, servicing and
Authority repairs training in all TESDA learning centres nationwide
Department of Focus: technology development of electric vehicle supply - Facility used
107
Science and equipment for R&D of the
Technology CHARM
- Funded the Charging in Minutes (CHARM) project, which project is
involved the development of a rapid charging system and envisaged as a
a smart battery control unit that implements a testing facility
communication protocol with the charger to ensure battery for qualifying
integrity and safety. The technical development of the lithium ion
project is through the University of the Philippines. The batteries and
chargers are installed on electric tricycles and electric testing
jeepneys in Cauayan City, Isabela (Almirol, 2017) roadworthiness
and the
compliance of
EVs with the
national
standards (UP,
2013)
LY
Department of Focus: air quality monitoring - Installation of
Environment more EV
and Natural - Ambient air quality monitoring in pre-defined routes in charging
Resources N
Marikina City through the incorporation of a mobile air-
sensing device with the electric vehicle i-MiEV donated by
stations
(Aguilar, 2017)
O
the MMPC. The project is supported by the City
Government of Marikina and Clean Air Asia (Zulueta,
T
2018)
- Operates EV charging stations donated by the Mitsubishi
AF
Motors Philippine Corporation (MMPC) in regional offices

in Cebu and Davao, and in DTI (Manila Standard, 2018)
R
D
In addition, several legislative bills have been proposed over time. Currently, about four key
senate bills are pending Congress approval. All bills provide fiscal and non-fiscal incentives to
potential EV end-users. Earlier senate bills, i.e. SB No. 6786 involve vehicle-focused provisions,
which recent senate bills, i.e. SB No. 1540 and SB No. 2137, have developed to include
provisions relating to charging infrastructure. Notably, the latest pending SB No 2137 proposes
more flexible incentives for EV suppliers and end-users and includes regulatory safeguards to
ensure the establishment of charging stations. Table 2-11 summarises the features of each bill.
6 amends SB No. 460, SB No. 2856, SB No. 164, SB No. 2151
108
Table 2-11. Summary of proposed EV-related legislative bills
Electric, Hybrid and Electric and Hybrid
Other Alternative Vehicles Including Electric Vehicles and
Legislative bill
Fuel Vehicles Charging Stations Charging Stations Act
feature
Promotions Act (SB Promotions Act (SB 2137, 2018)
678, 2016) (SB 1540, 2017)
Fiscal incentives
VAT and excise
For manufacturers, 9
tax exemption
years effectivity
for 9 years effectivity, with
manufacturers, 9 years effectivity the possibility of
For vehicle
assemblers, extension
importers, 3 years
vehicle
effectivity
importers
Exemption from
9 years effectivity, with
the Motor
LY
9 years effectivity 9 years effectivity the possibility of
Vehicle User’s
extension
Charge
Non-fiscal incentives
Priority in
N
O
registration,
renewal and 9 years effectivity 9 years effectivity No termination clause
T
issuance of
plate license
AF
Priority in
franchise
9 years effectivity 9 years effectivity No termination clause
application,
R
renewal
D
Exemption from
the Number 9 years effectivity 9 years effectivity No termination clause
Coding Scheme
9 years, with the
Free parking in
possibility of extension.
new 9 years effectivity 9 years effectivity
Violation entails penalty
establishments
fines
Required for private,
Required
public establishments
parking and LGUs are required
including gas stations
installation of to allocate land and
charging lot space
Violation entails penalty
stations
fines
109
Moreover, growth policy instruments offer fiscal incentives (incl. corporate income tax,
registration and use taxes) for EV and parts manufacturing industries (Table 2-12).
Table 2-12. Incentives from growth policy instruments for EV and parts manufacturers
Corporate income tax incentives Registration and use taxes
Green Jobs Act (RA 10771, 2016) Green Jobs Act (RA 10771, 2016)
- Expenditures on skills and R&D are 50% - Tariff exemption on capital equipment
deductible to the corporate income tax
Special Economic Zone Act (RA 7916, 1995)
Special Economic Zone Act (RA 7916, 1995) - Exemption from importation tax and duties
- For economic zone export enterprises, on raw materials, capital equipment,
corporate income tax exemption for 3 – 6 machineries, and spare parts
years, and a 5% rate on succeeding years - Exemption from wharfage dues and
- For economic zone domestic enterprises, export tax, impost or fees
5% corporate income tax rate - VAT exemption on local purchases,
- For economic zone-registered and located subject to compliance with BIR and PEZA
LY
businesses, deduction of training expenses requirements
from corporate income tax - Exemption from payment of all local
N government imposts, fees, licenses or

taxes
O
Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion
(TRAIN) Law (RA 10963, 2018)
T
- For BEVs, exemption from excise taxes

AF
- For PHEVs, 50% excise tax deduction

Source: Own work based on information cited
R
The TRABAHO Bill (HB 8083, 2018) may be assumed to be set for approval in the congress. It
seeks to gradually lower corporate income tax to 20% by 2029 from 30% in exchange of the
D
removal of other corporate tax perks including those provided to economic zone locators.
110
2.4 EV Industry
Figure 2-2 provides a snapshot of the EV supply chain in the Philippines. Components were
assessed according to local supply capacity, which were based on findings from industry
consultations, surveys, tariff commission data, and the value chain analysis of the automotive
industry. The state and capacity of each component are briefly discussed in the succeeding
sub-sections.
Vehicle Systems Marketing

Parts and Systems and Integration and Vehicle Use
Design and and Sales
Components Modules Final Assembly
Development
Battery Battery E-jeepneys Product Maintenance

Vehicle
Materials Module Knowledge and Repair
Development
and Cells E-trikes Development
Chassis
Parts
LY
system: Sales
Battery Light electric Recycling
System drivetrain,
Management vehicles and
Design rolling chassis, Marketing
System Disposal
front and rear
Software
Motor
Controller
modules N E-cars and e-
SUVs
Financing
Industry Charging
O
Development Electrical Service
EV Motor system: E-buses Public Industry
chassis transport
T
Wiring electronics, E-trucks

interior
AF
Tourism
Other electronics, Non-road EVs Industry
electrical power
components electronics Logistics
R
Mechanical Industry
Interior
components
system: seat, Other
D
Composite interior trim, businesses

components cockpit
module Government
Rubber and
plastic Body system:
components skin, finish,
trim, doors
Aluminum
components
Figure 2-2. Philippine EV Value Chain Analysis

Note: Darker shades indicate stronger local supply capacity
Source: Own work, other components adapted from Sturgeon et al. (2016)
111
2.4.1 Vehicle Design and Development
Vehicle design and development of multinational car companies are typically conducted in
company headquarters with minimal involvement from local assembly plants. Some
components (e.g. software development) however, are outsourced to subsidiaries. Local
capacity in this area is thus, a non-issue in attracting foreign investments in production though
challenges local vehicle suppliers.
Historically, vehicle design and development experience in the country has been confined to
‘backyard-industry’-produced jeepneys and tricycles, which barely achieved benefits that would
have resulted from implementing modern design practices and concepts. Enhancing vehicle
design and development capacity of the local EV industry is expected to contribute to the
introduction of aesthetically modern, functional, reliable, and efficient light EVs (i.e. e-jeepneys,
LY
e-trikes, e-bikes). As a further result, local capacity would be enabled to venture into heavier-
duty EV segments (e.g. e-buses, e-trucks) and faster moving variants 7 wherein added features,
N
such as crash absorption would be required, and weight reduction would be more critical.
O
While local EV manufacturers have gained experience on EV system design, current practice is
mostly limited to the basic system. Public transport operators have signified the need for design
T
improvements and added features (Sarmiento, 2018).

AF
On software development, a number of major automotive software companies have locally set
up shop, including Fujitsu Ten Solutions Philippines, Inc. and Denso Techno Philippines, Inc.
R
Although local EV players may not be able to tap the services of these organisations, their
D
presence signifies the large software and firmware programming base that the country offers.
Recent reports (Zinnov Management Consulting, 2013) however have indicated the scarcity of
employable middle- to high-skilled IT professionals, which need to be addressed.
2.4.2 Parts and Components Manufacturing
Battery Material Supply and Manufacturing
The battery manufacturing industry in the country is limited to lead acid battery production and
battery pack assembly. Table 2-13 provides a list of visible players in the industry.
7
Most local e-jeepeys and e-trikes are identified as slow-moving vehicles
112
Table 2-13. Battery production and/or assembly companies in the Philippines
Local production
Company name Product / Services Industry
plant location
AcBel Polytech Manufacture of lithium Consumer
Laguna
Philippines, Inc. ion battery packs Electronics
Battery Philippines, Manufacture of lead acid Automotive, Power
Bulacan
Inc. batteries Industry
Marine,
Hitachi Chemical
Manufacturer of VRLA Telecommunications, Cavite Economic
Energy Technology
batteries for export Power, IT, Cargo Zone
Co. Ltd.
Movement
Imarflex Battery
Manufacturing of lead
Manufacturing Automotive Pasig
acid batteries
Corporation
Assembly and/or
Valenzuela City
distribution of Marine,
LY
Quezon City
Lead Core Technology customized battery Telecommunications,
Subic
System, Inc. packs, utilising VRLA, Power, IT, Cargo
Pampanga
VTLA, nickel cadmium Movement
and lithium ion batteries N
O
Assembly and/or
distribution of off-the-
Marine,
shelf and/or customised
T
People’s International Telecommunications,

battery packs, utilising Valenzuela
Enterprises Power, IT, Cargo
AF
VRLA, VTLA, nickel

Movement
cadmium and lithium ion
batteries
R
Standard
Manufacture of lead acid
Manufacturing Automotive Valenzuela
D
batteries
Company, Inc.
Source: Own work
While some local e-jeepney and e-trike companies assemble their own battery modules, no
local entity assembles batteries as a core business. The mining industry has expressed a strong
interest to explore opportunities in EVs (Pateña, 2019), however major barriers need to be
addressed in order to ensure business sustainability. Local nickel is available in laterite form,
which is less preferred than the more purified nickel sulphate ores. To extract nickel sulphate
and cobalt, nickel laterites need to undergo smelting, predominantly through the HPAL process,
which is capital-intensive. The country has two HPAL plants, however, outputs are already
allotted for the current market and plant capacity would most likely not be capable of
accommodating additional demand. Ensuring the accessibility of raw materials by reviewing
mining regulatory issues and generating significant and steady local demand are thus highly
essential to maximise investments (Gomez, 2019).
113
Electronic and Electrical Components Manufacturing
Based on surveys conducted with local EV manufacturers, nearly all manufacturers completely
import main EV system components. Only a few companies locally produce EV electronic
components. The EVAP lists only two local EV component manufacturers offering the
corresponding product / services:
- TalinoEV: smart pay battery management system

- Power Measurement, Inc.: electric vehicle supply equipment tester
Focus group discussions with key players in the electric and electronics manufacturing industry
in the country (SEIPI and IMI, 2018) indicated that the local industry is capable of designing and
producing all electric drive train components (e.g. EV motors, controllers, battery management
system). The Philippine Tariff Commission (2018) further identifies locally available electric
motor manufacturers; however, it remains unclear whether the companies are currently
producing EV traction motors.
LY
Moreover, the country hosts several companies offering electronic manufacturing systems
N
(EMS), which could potentially manufacture EV controllers, battery management systems, and
on-board chargers. More visible EMS companies include:
O
- EMS Group
T
- Integrated Microelectronics, Inc.

- Ionics EMS, Inc.
AF
- Pythos Technology, Inc.

- Tsukiden Electronics Philippines, Inc.
R
The country also has a relatively mature industry to produce other electrical and electronic
components including wire harnesses, switches, fuses, relays, and plugs and sockets, among
D
others. To note, electrical systems have steadily accounted for more than half of national
automotive parts exports, placing the country as one of the leading supplier of wire harnesses
globally (UN Comtrade, 2015, cited in Sturgeon et al., 2016).
Assuming electronic and electrical components manufacturing would be localised, government

support on the product development phase would better enable the industry. Wide agreement
on the need for stronger linkages and collaboration between local EV companies and the
electronics and mechanical parts manufacturing industry was also highlighted in industry group
discussions. The discussion further highlighted the need to ensure local demand in order to
justify investments.
114
Mechanical and Other Non-Electronic Parts Production
Exports of body system and drive train components accounted for around 38% of national
automotive parts exports (UN Comtrade, 2015, cited in Sturgeon et al., 2016), attesting to the
local capacity of producing mechanical parts. Having reviewed the Philippine Tariff Commission
(2018) database on locally available EV parts, rubber and plastic automotive parts production
and supply capacity are assessed to be adequate.
Most Tier 1 local vehicle suppliers are multinational companies, which are either subsidiaries
and/or are closely linked with vehicle companies (Sturgeon et al., 2016). Multinational Tier 1
parts suppliers mainly undertake production of transmission systems, wire harness, suspension
systems, automotive stamping, and large injection molding for local and/or external needs of
vehicle companies. While local parts production plants would largely benefit from multinational
vehicle companies that decide to locally manufacture EVs, local capacity may not be able to
accommodate larger industry demand.
LY
Tier 2 parts suppliers mainly include metal working businesses, seat and trim companies,
rubber manufacturers, plastic producers, and electrical parts producers. As Tier 2 suppliers are
mostly family-owned businesses, more flexibility in its production practices is expected.
N
However, considering a relatively limited capacity to invest in R&D, production system, and
O
human resource, capacities need to be further developed.
T
2.4.3 Systems and Modules

AF
As discussed in section 2.4.2, battery module assembly is implemented only by some local EV
R
manufacturers for their own vehicles. Assuming that EV market demand is ensured, the
electronics and electrical industry could easily take on this area.
D
Similar to the case of conventional vehicles, the local industry is expected to be capable of
adequately providing chassis parts and module assembly and also, interior system parts and
assembly, including interior trim, seats, and cockpit module, which are required for a more
robust EV industry. Metal stamping companies however, could fall short on servicing a larger
EV market despite being currently capable. As a further result, reducing the weight and cost of
vehicle bodies could be a challenge.
2.4.4 Systems Integration and Assembly
The vehicle supply industry is divided into two segments: (i) multinational companies, which
specialise on e-cars, e-SUVs, and e-buses; and (ii) local vehicle suppliers, which focus on e-
115
trikes and e-jeepneys. Both segments supply light EVs, including e-two and e-three wheelers,
and other personal mobility EVs.
Currently, multinational companies are not locally producing EVs, while ICEV production is
dwarfed by volumes produced in neighbouring countries (e.g. Thailand, Indonesia). As
presented in Chapter 1, Thailand is leading EV production in the region. Barriers to the uptake
of production investments in the country for EV are similar constraints challenging the increase
in ICEV production. Piyanaraporn (2012) revealed the country to be weaker in nearly all
indicators of automotive industry competitiveness relative to Thailand and Indonesia, which
have more established industries (Table 2-14).
Table 2-14. Assessment on attractiveness of automotive manufacturing investments

Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Average
Market Size
Business Sophistication
LY
Institutions
Infrastructure
Macroeconomic Environment
Higher Education and Training
Supply Chain and Logistics
N
O
Labor Market Efficiency
Technological Readiness
T
Source: Own work, information derived from Piyanaraporn (2012)

AF
The Philippine total vehicle domestic demand in 2018 was only about 358,000 (Chamber of
Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc., 2018, cited in Business World, 2019), which
R
is significantly small-scale relative to Thailand and Indonesia as comparable economies.

Moreover, the limited vehicle sales also translate to poor economies of scale for assemblers
D
and parts suppliers. To note, assembly plants are closely positioned to Tier 1 parts suppliers,
particularly of bulkier components, in order to save on logistics costs and space through
innovative practices, such as just-in-time systems. Likewise, Tier 1 parts suppliers also favour
being situated near clusters of assembly plants for greater access to the market and lower
logistics costs. These realities are validated by the local production of OEM vehicles, which has
been made possible only through a large local market base that could fully cover for all vehicles
produced in the country (Table 2-15).
116
Table 2-15. Locally produced OEM cars
Model Vehicle variant Market
Honda City Sub-Compact Sedan Local
Hyundai Accent Sub-Compact Sedan Local
Mitsubishi Mirage G4 Sub-Compact Sedan Local
Mitsubishi Mirage Hatchback Sub-Compact Liftback Sedan Local
Nissan Almera Sub-Compact Sedan Local
Toyota Innova MPV Local
Toyota Vios Sub-Compact Sedan Local
Local with plans to export to
Foton Thunder Pick-up
Laos and Taiwan
Foton Toplander Mid Size SUV
Laos and Taiwan
Foton Traveller Van
Laos and Taiwan
LY
Source: Own work
N
The same production realities are expected to be true for EVs. While OEM vehicle companies
are planning to roll-out e-cars and e-SUVs, none are expected to be locally produced in the
O
near-term. Thus, the need to create mechanisms to ramp up local demand in order to enhance
the attractiveness of localising production.
T
AF
Table 2-16 provides a list of major local EV manufacturers. Despite increasing demand, most
players operate below production capacity, are unable to ramp up production and expand
operations, and are unable to stock up on both production materials and products due to limited
R
financial capacity. Delays in client payments significantly also affect capacities to sustain
production, which results in delivery delays of succeeding orders.
D
Table 2-16. Local EV Manufacturers

Company Product
Philippine Utility Vehicle Corporation, Inc. e-jeepney and e-trike
Tojo Motors Corporation e-jeepney and e-trike
Star 8 Green Technology Corporation e-jeepney and e-trike
Le’ Guider International e-jeepney and e-trike
Global Electric Transport / Pangea Motors e-jeepney
BEMAC Electric Transportation, Inc. e-trike
Eclimo Electric Management, Inc. e-trike
EV Wealth, Inc. e-trike
Eleia Green Vehicles e-trike
Source: Own work
117
For electric three- and two-wheelers, no data on local production is currently available.
However, it is believed that no local player has entered this segment due to tight competition
from imported models, particularly from China. Chinese companies have achieved economies of
scale, allowing lower production costs, which could not be matched by local companies. Recent
reports however claim that Kymco plans to establish an e-scooter production plant in the
country (Tribiana, 2018).
2.4.5 Marketing and Sales
The diffusion of EVs in the country requires an aggressive knowledge creation, marketing, and
sales programme. The programme would have to go beyond typical marketing and sales
strategies, requiring early adoption demonstration initiatives, as the additional cost would need
to be justified and that technology trust would need to be inculcated among consumers.
Demonstration initiatives require well-planned and phased-based adoption starting in selected
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pilot areas and would further be upscaled in larger cities, and eventually to all areas. The
programme would require working with various sectors, including national and local government
agencies, business sector, academic institutions, communities, and civil society, among others.
N
O
Bank financing and insurance services for vehicles are well-established in the country. A focus
group discussion with the sector indicated that while financing services may be offered to EVs,
T
specific uncertainties need to be managed as a pre-requisite. The common apprehension stems

from the lack of technology familiarity and infrastructure readiness to ensure consumers a
AF
favourable experience. Financing institutions would need to be ensured that owners highly value
the vehicles and that the vehicles are durable and reliable to be adequately functional at least
throughout the amortization period. Insurance companies however, raised the need for
R
cooperation in reviewing the applicability of current policy provisions and identifying additional
provisions required specifically for EVs.
D
Several industries are presented as highly potential EV market segments in the country, which
include public transport, tourism industry, government, logistics industry, and the two-wheeler
market. Regulations could significantly influence public transport, tourism, and the logistics
industries. Moreover, two-wheelers have seen unparalleled growth in recent years in the country
and that electric variants have been rapidly penetrating the market globally.
Public transport
The public transport modernisation programme could potentially provide the required market a
catalyst in sustaining local EV and parts production in the country. Table 2-17 provides a
snapshot of the latest available data on the public transport vehicle market scale in Metro
Manila alone.
118
Table 2-17. Public transport vehicle population data in Metro Manila
Public transport mode Number of units Year Reference
Jeepneys 75,000 2018 NPR, 2018
Tricycles 84,475 2018 LTO, 2018b
City buses 4,902 2016 LTFRB, 2016a
Provincial buses 9,028 2016 LTFRB, 2016b; LTFRB, 2016c
LTFRB, 2018, cited in Tadeo,
Taxis 8,079 2018
2018b
LTFRB, 2018, cited in Pateña,
TNVS 66,7508 2018
2018
Source: Own table, data drawn from cited sources
Based on official data, only about 55,000 jeepney units are registered and about 48,000 units
would be replaced (LTFRB, 2016d). Locking a certain share of the routes to electric jeepneys
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could secure enough demand to stimulate the growth of the local EV industry at sustainable
levels. Moreover, a total of 822,615 public tricycles nationwide, with about 84,500 units in Metro
Manila alone proves the popularity of tricycles and presents the potential of electrifying units.
N
While e-trikes are gaining popularity, most are catered by low-cost imported models from China.
As discussed in section 2.1, LGUs have increasingly rolled-out e-trike adoption projects, which
O
could jumpstart the sustained sales of locally made units in the market. However, its
sustainability significantly depends on the performance of the units, management of the service,
and vehicle price trajectory. To note, the units rolled-out by the DOE are overly expensive for
T
the local market, particularly considering that no subsidy is provided. Significant reduction in
AF
vehicle price is expected in the future.

R
Tourism industry
D
Tourism is another industry that offers itself as a niche market for EVs in the country. A review
of the latest available data on tourism vehicle fleet population (Table 2-18) indicates that in
2014, the industry owned around 11,052 vehicles nationwide, wherein 43% or 4,788 are cars
(PSA, 2015). Chartered buses, vans, and minibuses also comprise a significant share of tourism
vehicles. While SUVs and limousines account for a smaller share, both target the higher-end
market and thus, provides flexibility in pricing the service.
8
Includes Metro Manila, Cebu, and Pampanga
119
Table 2-18. Total tourism industry vehicle fleet ownership, 2014
Car AUV /
Establishment Bus Van Minibus Limousine Others
(Sedan) SUV
Hotels and motels 310 21 640 74 184 27 70

Resort hotels 122 43 351 35 76 102
Condotels 42 2 8
Pension houses 11 1 38 7 1 2
Camping sites 6
Short term
accommodation 6 1 15 1 1
activities
Other
1 1
accommodation
Transport
operators, tour and 4291 2377 623 988 472 116 36
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travel agencies
Total 4788 2443 1620 1105 741 144 211
N
Source: Own table, data drawn from Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), 2015, p. 142, 361
O
Transport operators, tour and travel agencies operate the most number of vehicles. Based on
project consultations with the Philippine Travel and Tours Association (PTTA), the industry is
T
open to adopting EVs on the condition that regulations on the industry would first need to be
effectively enforced, allowing licensed players to invest on newer vehicles including EVs.
AF
Currently, the LTFRB has introduced a 10-unit minimum fleet requirement for tour operators,
which has been raised as unviable for most service providers. Unlicensed tour operators have
been capable of operating at lower costs due to non-compliance with government regulations
R
including insurance, vehicle age and condition, and minimum fleet size requirements. As a
result, unlicensed operators have overtaken licensed and legal operators. Effectively enforcing
D
regulatory requirements would enable legal players to invest in more efficient vehicles including
EVs. Moreover, preferential concessions, such as reducing the required minimum fleet size for
operators adopting EVs would significantly attract the industry.
Government
Based on latest available official data, average government vehicles purchased from 2015 to
2017 is about 12,611 (Table 2-19) (LTO, 2018c).
120
Table 2-19. Government vehicles registered nationwide, 2015-2017
Registration 2015 2016 2017 Average
New 12,123 14,643 11,067 12,611
Renewal 63,978 64,855 66,174
Total 76,101 79,101 77,241
Source: LTO, 2018c, p. 3
Recent data on the types of government vehicles is unavailable. However, based on 2010-2013
official records, utility vehicles represent more than half of total government vehicles, followed
by significant shares of motorcycles and trucks (LTO, 2017) (Figure 2-3). Similar to the public
transport market, earmarking a set share of government purchases to EVs would support
demand generation for EVs.
1.50%
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3.40% 0.80%
4.80%
UVs
12.60%
N Motorcycles and Tricycles
Trucks
O
Cars
52.10%
24.80% SUVs
T
Trailers
AF
Buses
Figure 2-3. Average government vehicle distribution share by vehicle type, 2010-2013
R
Source: Own elaboration based on LTO (2017)

D
Logistics industry
The express delivery service market in the country is projected to register a 9% annual growth
and would be supported by an estimated 24.6% annual growth from the e-commerce logistics
sector (Ken Research, 2019). Infrastructural development, technological advancement,
favourable customer feedback on e-commerce, and cost reduction benefits of business-to-
consumer services are expected to fuel growth. The worsening traffic situation in cities in the
country combined with improving delivery services has also prompted the rapid growth of the
food delivery sector, projected at 23.4% annually from 2019 to 2023 (Figure 2-4) (Statista,
2019).
121
500
386
400
In million USD
338
300 283
224
200 167
116
100 77
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
restaurant-to-consumer delivery platform-to-consumer delivery
Figure 2-4. Growth projections for the Philippine food delivery sector
Source: Statista (2019)
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Growth projections are expected to increase vehicle demand from the logistics industry, which
N
could open up a potential market for EVs, particularly electric delivery vans and electric two-
wheeler segments, given that proper, supportive regulations are introduced.
O
Electric two-wheeler market
T
Motorcycle demand has also drastically increased due to traffic congestion and increasing fuel
AF
prices. Historical data indicates that motorcycle sales more than doubled from 2012 to 2018
(Figure 2-5) (MDPPA, 2016, cited in Ilagan, 2017)
R
1,800,000
D
1,580,926
1,600,000
1,400,000 1,316,717
1,138,690
1,200,000
1,000,000 850,509
752,836 790,245
800,000 702,597
600,000
400,000
200,000
-
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Figure 2-5. Philippine motorcycle sales, 2012-2018
Source: Own elaboration based on MDPPA, 2016, cited in Ilagan (2017)
122
Automatic or scooter sales share has been increasing in recent years (Figure 2-6), which is of
particular interest to the EV industry, as scooters are also projected to further dominate electric
two-wheeler sales globally (Prescient and Strategic Intelligence, 2018), indicating the
competitiveness and technological maturity of this segment.
100% 4.60% 4.40%

6.90%
90%
80% 24.10% 29.60% 36.50%
70%
60%
50% 32.30% 33.10%
40% 31.30%
30%
20% 36.70% 32.70% 27.80%
10%
0%
LY
2016 2017 2018
Moped Business Automatic Street
Figure 2-6. Motorcycle sales by motorcycle type
N
Source: Own elaboration based on MDPPA (2018)
O
2.4.6 Vehicle Use
T
AF
The maintenance and repair of EVs are simpler compared to ICEVs due to significantly fewer
moving parts. However, in handling EVs, specific technical knowledge and skills are required to
prevent serious safety hazards. To note, even developed countries experience knowledge and
R
skills shortage on EVs. For example, the UK Institute of Motor Industry (IMI) (2017) highlighted
that only 3% of automotive technicians in the UK are qualified to work with EVs. Moreover,
D
vehicle maintenance and repair occupational group goes beyond service technicians and
involves: (i) emergency service personnel (e.g. rescue teams, medical teams) and (ii) vehicle
recovery and handling personnel. Local EV companies have maintained a pool of trained
technicians, however, more are required in mainstreaming EV adoption.
Based on industry consultations with public transport fleet companies, lack of available
replacement parts and components has also been highlighted as a barrier to operations. Limited
demand and operating funds among local EV players have also been identified as hindrances in
stocking up on replacement parts and thus, orders are placed only as needed. As a result, the
provision of parts and the repair of in-use vehicles become significantly delayed. Consultations
with EVAP highlighted the need for the local EV industry to jointly explore the possibility of
utilising a common platform including parts and components in order to consolidate replacement
parts demand.
123
The availability of charging stations has not been an issue to-date based on consultations with
public transport EV players as vehicles are either charged in-house or drained batteries are
swapped by the operators or a third-party service provider. Equipment used in charging
operations have been limited to Level 1 and Level 2 systems.
While the bulk of charged power for private EVs would be through home or work charging
arrangements, the presence of public charging points is needed to alleviate driver anxiety on
charging and boost confidence towards the operational viability of EVs. Currently, no public slow
charging points are available, while fast charging points are limited to selected locations (Figure
2-7). While the country has two fast charging station providers: Unioil (i.e. operating one station
each in Congressional Avenue Extension and EDSA-Guadalupe) and Meralco (i.e. operating
one station each in DENR-Quezon City and DTI-Makati City), only stations operated by Unioil
are publicly accessible. Based on industry interviews, the limited charging infrastructure is
expected to improve through the planned installations of QEV, targetting 100 stations in SM
malls nationwide and 100 stations in Shell outlets by 2022.
LY
N
O
Congressional Avenue
Extension, Quezon City
T
DENR, Quezon City

AF
R
D
EDSA-Guadalupe
DTI, Makati City
Figure 2-7. Geographical distribution of existing charging points

Source: Own work
124
Currently, EV charging system suppliers in the country are limited in number (Table 2-20).
Among the suppliers, only KEA / Eclimo and CHRG Inc. locally produce chargers. In the
absence of mass demand, local production of charging points is on a made-to-order basis.
Table 2-20. Charging system suppliers in the Philippines

Input AC Output Output
Charger Rated Standards
Company Power Voltage Current
Model Power Used
Requirements Range Range
Terra 53 Input AC
multi- power:
standard connection 3P
50 kW up CCS and
QEV electric- + N + PE; 400 80-112A
to 200kW CHAdeMO
vehicle DC VAC +/-10%
charging (50 Hz or 60
station Hz)
12kW 10-135V 100A
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Single-phase
24kW 10-135V 200A
220-240 VAC;
Bassi 20kW 50-600V 50A
Three-phase
Sevcon UNIVERSAL Combo and
Ltd. DC Charging
40kW
60kW
N
200-600V;
Frequency
50-600V
50-700V
100A
150A
CHAdeMO
O
station
50/60 Hz ± 5
120kW 50-700V 200A
Hz
200kW 50-700V 300A
T
Soudon New
AF
Energy Tech
Intelligent
Soundon Solar Energy 730 V, up to No
New
R
Storage 420 Ah 730V information

Energy
Integrated
D
Charging
Station
AC Coin AC
No
KEA / Operated 220VAC, 60Hz socket
220V AC specialized
Eclimo Charging Single Phase up to
socket used
Station 30A
Up to
3kW
CHRG_ACS 3kW SAE J1772
charging 220VAC
_3xx charging optional
CHRG terminal 220VAC, 60Hz
terminal
Inc. Single Phase
CHRG_ETC_
36V- Up to SAE J1772
2B On-Board 2kW
150VDC 40A optional
Charger
125
CHRG_ETC_
36V - Up to GB/T or
5xx E-Trike 6kW
150VDC 80A CHAdeMo
Fast Charger
Source: Own table
2.5 Local EV Human Resource Support Assessment
2.5.1 Technical Designations and Competency Requirements
Consultations through a Value Chain Analysis Workshop and a DACUM (Designing a

Curriculum) Workshop were conducted with government and industry representatives in order to
identify workforce requirements for the EV industry.
Most new designations identified could be occupied by existing professions. However, various
training and education programmes are needed to address skill requirements. Compared to the
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ICEV industry workforce, the EV workforce requires higher level of technical competencies on
power electronics, control systems, electrical safety, battery technologies, and battery
management systems. EV workers would also need to be familiar with vehicle performance
N
qualities unique to EVs, e.g. quiet drive train, range limitations, reduced emissions, and reduced
energy consumption.
O
New training programmes to educate the EV workforce could be designed in the form of new
T
baccalaureate programmes, certificate courses, company-initiated trainings, technology

AF
suppliers-led trainings, online courses, among others. New designations with corresponding job
descriptions and training requirements are summarised in Table 2-21.
R
Table 2-21. EV workforce requirements

Occupation Description Recommendations
D
EV Design and Development

Mechanical engineer (ME), with
appropriate experience in vehicle
design. Specialist programmes are
Design, development and needed as the occupation requires
EV Mechanical
testing of EV mechanical advanced mechanical simulation
Design Engineer
systems design skills, specialising on
vehicle design, which is not
adequately covered in current ME
programmes.
Electrical / Electronics Engineer,
Design, development and
EV Electrical Design with appropriate experience on EV
testing of EV electrical
Engineer electrical system design. Requiring
systems
a professional EE license is
126
recommended considering the
power ratings involved. Training
programmes must be considered
since the occupation requires
specialist knowledge and involves
safety risks.
Autotronics Software Development, programming Computer Scientist or Computer
Progammers and testing of EV software Engineer with appropriate
systems experience
Aesthetic design of EVs, taking
EV Industrial Designer into account technical system Industrial Design graduates
requirements
Electrical / Electronics Engineer,
with appropriate experience.
Requiring a professional EE
Design, development and license is recommended
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testing of the electrical system considering the power ratings
Battery Module
of EV Battery modules based involved. Training programmes
Electrical Design
on a set of technical and must be considered since the
Engineer
constraints
N
economic specifications and occupation requires advanced
design skills and battery safety
O
knowledge, which are not
adequately covered in current EE /
T
ECE courses
AF
Mechanical Engineer, with

Design, development and
appropriate experience. Training
testing of thermal, dynamic
programmes must be considered
impact and elemental
R
Battery Mechanical since the occupation requires

protection system of EV
and Thermal Design advanced thermal and mechanical
battery modules based on a
D
Engineer simulation and design skills and

set of technical and economic
battery safety expertise, which are
specifications and constraints
not adequately covered in current
ME courses
Parts and Vehicle
Possible Base Program
Manufacturing
Automotive Electrical Assembly
Specialist II, with additional
Preparation of wire harnesses specialist training on battery and
EV Electrical
and assembly of EV electrical EV safety. Currently, only two
Assembly Personnel
systems institutions offer the needed
training, which needs to be
addressed
EV Mechanical Assembly of EV mechanical Automotive Mechanical Assembly
Assembly Personnel systems II, with additional specialist training
127
on battery and EV safety.
Currently, no institution offers
programmes on Automotive
Mechanical Assembly
Currently, no base programme is
Quality control testing of EV
available. Preparation of an
EV Test Technician electrical and mechanical
appropriate TESDA training
systems
regulation is recommended.
Vehicle Operations,
Maintenance and Possible Base Program
Repair
Supervision of EV dispatching
No programme is currently
and scheduling, maintenance,
available. Preparation of a training
financials, charging service /
EV Fleet Manager programme covering safety
battery swapping, personnel
concepts and practices is
management, and terminal
LY
recommended.
management
EV Electrical Service Maintenance and repair of EV
Automotive Servicing II
Technician electrical systems
EV Mechanical N
Maintenance and repair of EV Automotive Servicing I, with
O
Service Technician mechanical systems additional focus on EV safety
No programme is currently
available. However, the TESDA
T
Operation of e-trikes, e-jeeps, driver certification training could be

EV Driver
AF
and e-buses expanded to include topics on EV

maintenance and EV safety and
emergency response
R
No programmes is currently
Implementation and oversight available. Training programmes on
EV Fleet and Depot
D
of safety practices in EV the storage and disposal of EV

Safety Officer
depots and EV operations batteries and components, among
others, is recommended
Charging System Assembly and Installation
EVSE Electrical
Design of appropriate power
Supply System Electrical Engineer
supply systems for EVSEs.
Designer
Electrical Installation and
Installation of power supply
EVSE Installation Maintenance II, with additional
systems and EVSE equipment,
Technician specialist knowledge on solar
as per technical design
power installation
Charging System Operation
128
Charging Facility Over-all supervision and safety Preferably a technical specialist
Manager / Safety of charging facilities and with appropriate training on EVSE
Officer operation station and safety
Charging Service
EVSE safe operation
Personnel
Currently, no training programme is
Technical Support
Orientation support for EV available, which would need to be
Associate
owners and/or drivers on developed
(for self-service
EVSE use
charging)
Electrical Installation and
EVSE maintenance and repair,
EVSE Repair and Maintenance Specialist II, with
including troubleshooting of
Maintenance specialist training on EVSE
power line, as needed
equipment
Sales and Marketing
Presentation, discussion of
EV Sales vehicle technical features, Sales personnel, with orientation
LY
Representatives operation, and economics to focused on EVs
prospective clients
EV Test Drive Support Test-drive support, including Must be a certified EV Driver
Staff N
on-board testing, for clients (see discussion above)
O
Current customer service
Planning, direction, and
managers may be tapped though
coordination of after-sales
EV Customer Service orientation on the product and
T
requirements and activities,

Manager maintenance and repair processes
particularly on maintenance,
AF
involved would need to be

with EV owners.
conducted
Regulations
R
Evaluation of EV models Engineering degree, with specialist

Vehicle Type
D
based on standard training on EV standards and test

Approval Assessors
requirements procedures
Implementation of testing
EV Standards Test
processes, as defined by the
Technicians Currently, no training programme is
EV vehicle standards
available, which would need to be
Implementation of testing
MVIS EV Testing developed
processes as defined in the
Specialist
MVIS
Compliance monitoring on the Currently, no training programme is
EV Environmental safety and environmental available. Development of a
Officer (Battery requirements of EV battery specialist training on battery and
Recycling) and component storage and EV parts disposal must be
disposal developed
Emergency Response and Recovery
129
Rescue and recovery of Upgrading and certification of
Rescue service
people in accidents and concerned personnel
personnel
disasters
Provision of immediate Upgrading and certification of
Medical emergency medical services on people concerned personnel
service personnel involved in accidents and
disasters
Upgrading and certification of
Vehicle Recovery and Recovery of vehicles involved
concerned personnel
Handling personnel in accidents and disasters
Upgrading and certification of

Fire fighting personnel Fire control and management concerned personnel
In general, the EV industry is expected to experience similar competency gaps with the
conventional automotive industry. The TESDA (2019) Labor Market Intelligence Report on the
LY
automotive industry revealed that filling management, engineering, and technician roles despite
the labour force surplus, has been challenging. Managerial applicants have also mostly been
found to have poor PDCA (plan-do-check-act) skills, while engineers needed arithmetic skills
N
and practical working knowledge and experience in key engineering areas. Similarly,
technicians have limited working experiences. The high turn-over of engineers and technicians
O
in favour of foreign employment was also identified as an issue. The report however, highlighted
that the country has strengths in the electrical, electronics, and IT industry, which could be
T
banked on (TESDA, 2019).

AF
2.5.2 Employment Outlook

R
In general, less direct employment is expected from the EV manufacturing industry compared to
the ICE industry. Less jobs are needed in EV manufacturing and assembly due to fewer parts,
D
i.e. from 1400 parts of ICEVs to 200 parts only (FES, 2015). As discussed in section 2.4.2,
vehicle components locally produced in the country are mostly limited to electricals and parts
common also to EVs (e.g. body parts, chassis, brake pads, wheel and axles). The value of EVs
is mostly concentrated on batteries and power electronics; hence, the need to introduce
mechanisms targeted at attracting investors in these areas.
Maintenance jobs are also less due to less maintenance load required by EVs. Studies however
from the U.S. and Europe conclude that net increases in employment would result from EV
market growth (Winebrake et al., 2017; Transport and Environment, 2017). Switching from ICE
to EVs would lead to job losses in the ICE industry and would be compensated by new jobs
generated by the EV and its affiliated industries. Significant re-training is however required, as
discussed in section 2.5.1. Moreover, Winbrake et al (2017) projected that in the U.S.,
household fuel savings from EV use translates to additional spending in other areas, e.g. food,
clothing, and education, which represents potential job generation in other sectors. Both studies
in the U.S. and Europe also project significant employment growth in the research and
130
development industry due to the new and emerging technologies offered by the EV industry
(Winbrake et al., 2017; Transport and Environment, 2017). If the Philippines will simply settle as
a market in this transition, the country will fail to gain the benefits from these additional high-
quality jobs. More importantly, the value of EVs is projected to draw from software (40%) and
smart application content (20%) in the future (Morgan Stanley Research, 2013, cited in Hachiya,
2017), which are areas that the country is strongly capable of though would miss out on if the
country is only a market.
2.6 EV Standards in the Philippines

Currently, the DTI-Bureau of Product Standards has adopted 45 EV-related standards. To note,
all standards adopted remain voluntary until the appropriate government agency explicitly
issues a Department Order or legal instrument requiring standard adoption. This section reviews
the standards adopted based on the framework provided by the Recommended Electric Vehicle
Regulatory Reference Guide of the UNECE Electric Vehicles and Environment (EVE) Working
Group (United Nations Economic and Social Council, 2014). The assessment provided covers
LY
standards adopted locally relative to the UNECE proposed set of regulatory aspects for
vehicles, batteries, and charging infrastructure.
Vehicle Regulations
N
O
Figure 2-8 indicates the status of the standards adopted based on eight vehicle areas.
Additional areas were added (i.e. electrical safety, drive train, and operating characteristics)
T
from the five components originally listed in the UNECE Guidelines.

AF
Vehicle Notes
Range Testing protocols only
R
Energy Consumption Testing protocols only

D
Driver User Information Limited to instrumentation

Recycling and Re-Use
Vehicle Labelling
Electrical Safety Fairly comprehensive
Drive Train Limited to safety
Operating Characteristics Provide conditions under which the vehicle should operate
Legend
Regulations
Voluntary
None
Partial (half)
Figure 2-8. Status of vehicle-related EV standards in the Philippines

Source: Own work
131
While local standards detail protocols to be adopted in the determination of vehicle range and
fuel economy, no minimum values have been set for each. Driver user information, which
covers e.g. standard symbols and indicators on system warnings, charge systems, vehicle
status, is only limited to vehicle instrumentation. No regulations on vehicle recycling and re-use
and vehicle labelling have been locally introduced. Fuel labelling typically covers information on
fuel efficiency, range, cost, total battery capacity, and other key technical specifications.
Standards on electrical safety and operating characteristics are comprehensive, however, drive
train regulations are limited only to safety.
Table 2-22 provides a list of DTI-BPS standards covering vehicles.
Table 2-22. Vehicle-related EV standards in the Philippines

PNS code PNS title
PNS ISO 8713:2012 Electric road vehicles – Vocabulary
Electric road vehicles – Reference energy consumption and range
PNS ISO 8714:2012
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– Test procedures for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles
PNS ISO 8715:2012 Electric road vehicles – Road operating characteristics
Electrically propelled road vehicles – Safety specifications – Part 2:
PNS ISO 6469-2:2012
N
Vehicle operational safety means and protection against failures
Electric road vehicles – Safety specifications – Part 3: Protection of
O
PNS ISO 6469-3:2012
persons against electric hazards
Fuel cell road vehicles – Safety specifications – Part 1: Vehicle
PNS ISO 23273-1:2012
T
functional safety
Fuel cell road vehicles – Safety specifications – Part 2: Protection
AF
PNS ISO 23273-2:2012 against hydrogen hazards for vehicles fueled with compressed
hydrogen
Fuel cell road vehicles – Safety specifications – Part 3: Protection
R
PNS ISO 23273-3:2012

of persons against electric shock
D
Fuel cell road vehicles – Energy consumption measurement –

PNS ISO 23828:2012
Vehicles fueled with compressed hydrogen
Hybrid-electric road vehicles – Guidelines for charge balance
PNS ISO/TR 11955:2012
measurement
Hybrid-electric road vehicles – Exhaust emissions and fuel
PNS ISO 23274:2012
consumption measurements – Non-externally chargeable vehicles
PNS IEC/TR 60783:2012 Wiring and connectors for electric road vehicles
PNS IEC/TR 60784:2012 Instrumentation for electric road vehicles
PNS IEC/TR 60785:2012 Rotating machines for electric road vehicles
PNS IEC/TR 60786:2012 Controllers for electric road vehicles
Electrically propelled road vehicles – Safety specifications – Part 4:
PNS ISO 6469-4:2018
Post crash electrical safety
Road vehicles – Degrees of protection (IP code) – Protection of
PNS ISO 20653:2019
electrical equipment against foreign objects, water and access
132
EV Battery Regulations
The country has introduced standard testing protocols on battery performance and durability,
however, no minimum requirements have been defined to-date. No standards have also been
defined for EV battery recycling and re-use.
Battery Notes
Performance Testing protocols only
Durability Testing protocols only
Recycling
Battery Re-Use
Legend
Regulations
Voluntary
LY
None
Partial (half)
N
Figure 2-9. Status of EV battery-related standards in the Philippines
O
Source: Own work
Table 2-23 provides the list of DTI-BPS standards covering EV batteries.

T
AF
Table 2-23. Battery-related EV standards in the Philippines

PNS code PNS title
Electrically propelled road vehicles – Safety specifications
PNS ISO 6469-1:2012
R
– Part 1: On-board rechargeable energy storage system

Electrically propelled road vehicles – Test specification for
D
PNS ISO 12405-1:2012 lithium-ion traction battery packs and systems – Part 1:
High-power applications
Electric double-layer capacitors for use in hybrid electric
PNS IEC 62576:2012
vehicles – Test methods for electrical characteristics
Electrically propelled vehicles – Test specifications for
PNS ISO 18300:2018 lithium-ion battery systems combined with lead acid
battery or capacitor
Electrically propelled road vehicles – Specification of
PNS ISO/PAS 19295:2018
voltage sub-classes for voltage class B
PNS ISO 12405-2:2018 lithium-ion traction battery packs and systems – Part 2:
High-energy applications
PNS ISO 12405-3:2018
lithium-ion traction battery packs and systems – Part 3:
133
Safety performance requirements
Electrically propelled road vehicles – Dimensions and
PNS ISO/IEC PAS 16898:2018
designation of secondary lithium-ion cells
PNS IEC 61851-21-1:2018 lithium-ion traction battery packs and systems – Part 2:
Safety performance requirements
Charging Infrastructure Regulations
The country has adopted fairly comprehensive standards on on-board and off-board charging
equipment and practices. However, regulations on wireless charging and vehicles as electricity
supply have been defined.
Charging Infrastructure Notes
LY
On-Board Charging Fairly comprehensive
Off-Board Charging Fairly comprehensive
Wireless Charging
Vehicles as Electricity Supply
N
O
Legend
T
Regulations
Voluntary
AF
None
Partial (half)
R
Figure 2-10. Status of EV charging infrastructure standards in the Philippines

Source: Own work
D
Table 2-24 provides the list of DTI-BPS standards covering charging infrastructure.
Table 2-24. EV charging infrastructure standards in the Philippines

PNS code PNS title
Electric vehicle conductive charging system – Part 1:
PNS IEC 61851-1:2012
General requirements
PNS IEC 61851-21:2012 Electric vehicle requirements for conductive connection to
an AC/DC supply
Electric vehicle conductive charging system – Part 22: AC
PNS IEC 61851-22:2012
electric vehicle charging station
Road vehicles – Electrical disturbances from conduction
PNS ISO 7637-1:2018 and coupling – Part 1: Definitions and general
considerations
134
Electric vehicle conductive charging system – Part 23: DC
PNS IEC 61851-23:2018
electric vehicle charging station
PNS IEC 61851-24:2018 Digital communication between a DC. EV charging station
and an electric vehicle for control of DC charging
Electrically propelled road vehicles – Connection to an
PNS ISO 17409:2018
external electric power supply – Safety requirements
Plugs, socket-outlets, vehicle connectors and vehicle inlets
PNS IEC 62196-1:2019 – Conductive charging of electric vehicles – Part 1:
General requirements
– Conductive charging of electric vehicles – Part 2:
PNS IEC 62196-2:2019
Dimensional compatibility and interchangeability
requirements for AC pin and contact-tube accessories
– Conductive charging of electric vehicles – Part 3:
LY
PNS IEC 62196-3:2019 Dimensional compatibility and interchangeability
requirements for DC and AC/DC. pin and contact-tube
vehicle couplers
PNS ISO 15118-1:2019

N
Road vehicles – Vehicle-to-grid communication interface –
O
Part 1: General information and use-case definition
PNS ISO 15118-2: 2019
Part 2: Network and application protocol requirements
T

PNS ISO 15118-3:2019
AF
Part 3: Physical and data link layer requirements

PNS ISO 15118-4:2019
Part 4: Network and application protocol conformance test
R

PNS ISO 15118-5:2019
Part 5: Physical and data link layer conformance tests
D

PNS ISO 15118-8:2019 Part 8: Physical layer and data link layer requirements for
wireless communication
Road vehicles – Controller area network (CAN) – Part 1:
PNS ISO 11898-1:2019
Data link layer and physical signaling
135
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3 Electric Vehicle Demand Projections
Electric vehicles could diffuse through two distinct major markets in the country – the household
market, and the commercial (including government vehicles) market. The most significant
difference between both markets is that household diffusion is primarily driven by market forces,
while commercial and government vehicles market could be largely influenced by policies. This
chapter discusses the significant factors affecting household market diffusion and the effects of
various adoption policies to commercial EV diffusion.
3.1 Household EVs
A vehicle demand model was developed and calibrated using survey data from prospective
vehicle sales clients in car showrooms in Metro Manila and nearby areas. The vehicle demand
model developed only predicts rational buying, which refers to vehicle purchase resulting from:
(i) population growth; (ii) households moving to a higher income classification; and (iii)
replacement of old / scrapped vehicles. The model does not predict impulse buying. For
example, in Japan, U.S., and China, EV sales spiked up to 3 – 6 times the average annual sales
LY
at the third to fourth year of EV diffusion. Possibly, at the observed years, marketing efforts have
been able to saturate the market and fringe benefits have attracted initial attention, which
N
resulted in public hype. People not intending to purchase new cars, purchased EVs in order to
test the technology or pull up the schedule of a planned future purchase. However, in all cases,
O
sales were eventually observed to fall back and stabilise at the level of average sales in the first
and second years of EV diffusion.
T
While the model developed for this study is capable of simulating changes in income
AF
distribution, it was assumed that income distribution will remain constant nationwide from 2020
to 2030.
R
In forecasting EV prices, battery costs are expected to reduce significantly following industry
D
projections. BEV prices are expected to gradually decrease to ~76% of current prices by 2030,
while PHEV prices are expected to gradually decrease to ~88% of current prices by 2030.
Following recommendations in Chapter 6, 2020 to 2023 will be allotted for EV technology

awareness building, considering that the public has limited awareness on EV technology and its
ownership and societal benefits. A full roll-out is thus only possible starting 2024. EV sales from
2020 to 2023 were intentionally reduced in this model to account for the lack of public
awareness.
The model was used to simulate EV adoption under four scenarios listed and described in Table
3-1.
142
Table 3-1. Scenario details
Public
Tax transport
Scenario Notes
Incentive improvements
(2022)
- 30% importation tariff
- Reduction of excise taxes by half for
PHEVs
Baseline
- Excise tax exemption for BEVs
- 12% VAT for all vehicles
- EURO 4 standards are implemented.
- No importation tariffs
- Excise tax exemption for PHEVs and
1 BEVs
- 12% VAT for all vehicles
- EURO 4 standards are implemented
LY
- Baseline tax scenario
- Public transport and accessibility
2
improvements begin in 2022, with full
N
benefits felt by 2030
- Scenario 1 + Scenario 2
O
3
T
The model utilised the following information:

AF
- Household income distribution by region, average family size per income bracket, and
transport mode share by region and income bracket based on the Family Income and
Expenditure Survey of the Philippine Statistics Authority (2015)
R
- Population growth projections per region based on PSA (2010)

D
- Private passenger vehicle scrappage rate in the Philippines based on Monorom et al.
(2018a)
- Probability of private passenger vehicle ownership by household income, and private
passenger vehicle ownership reduction rate due to public transport and accessibility
improvements based on Monorom et al (2018b)
- Future vehicle prices and energy economy based on the model developed within the
project framework (discussed in Chapter 5)
The significant factors affecting vehicle choice based on the survey of this study are outlined in
Table 3-2 from most significant to least significant. Technical coefficients are also provided. A
negative coefficient suggests that a particular choice factor negatively affects the vehicle variant
/ technology choice, while a positive coefficient indicates attractiveness to a specific vehicle
variant / technology choice. Interactions among the various choice factors were also combined
and explored (e.g. household income and vehicle price). When two factors interact, the
presence of one factor possibly magnifies or shrinks the effect of the other factor. For example,
143
in the case of household income and refueling / charging cost, the negative coefficient indicates
that higher household incomes result in higher importance of fuel savings.
Table 3-2. Factors affecting vehicle variant and technology choice
Factors Affecting Variant Choice Technical Coefficient Significance
Refueling / Charging Cost -0.00021603 High

Vehicle Price -4.67E-07 High
Family Size x Refueling / Charging Cost 0.000018654 Mid
Household Income x Refueling / Charging Cost -9.75E-10 Mid
Household Income x Vehicle Price 1.88E-12 Mid
Product of Family Size x Vehicle Price 0.000000019 Low
Factors Affecting Technology Choice Technical Coefficient Significance
Refueling / Charging Cost 0.000606502 Very High
Household Income x Refueling / Charging Cost -1.33E-09 High
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Vehicle Price -4.64E-07 Mid
Product of Household Income x Vehicle Price -3.18E-12 Mid
Source: Own work
N
For variant choice (e.g. mini-compact sedan, van), the most significant choice factor is refueling
O
/ charging cost and vehicle price. Both factors negatively affect variant choice wherein the
attractiveness of a variant is largely a factor of lower cost requirements. Though not shown in
Table 3-2, the preferences of each income group and different family sizes to particular variants
T
were considered in the model and elaborated in Figure 3-1. Thus, it is not necessarily the case
AF
that people would purchase the cheapest variant, i.e. mini-compact sedan, as certain
households / individuals simply prefer purchasing larger vehicles or a certain variant (e.g.
crossover SUV, pick-up).
R
Table 3-3 Nomenclature

D
Variant
Min Minicompact Sedan
Sub Subcompact Sedan
MPV Multi-purpose vehicle / Minivan
Com Compact Sedan
Pic Pickup Truck
Cro Crossover
Mid Mid-size Sports Utility Vehicle
Fun Full-size sedan
Van Van
Ful Full-size Sports Utility Vehicle
Technology
Plu Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
Bat Battery Electric Vehicle
144
Int Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle
Choice Factors
Household Income Groups:
Income - Low (< P30,000 per month)
- Low-Mid (P30,000 to P60,000 per month)
- Mid-High (P60,000 to P100,000 per month)
- High (> P100,000 per month)
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
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0.0%
Min Sub MPV Com Pic Cro Mid Fun Van Ful
Low Low-Mid N
Mid-High High
O
Figure 3-1 Variant preference by income level
Source: Own work
T
AF
For technology choice (i.e. ICEV, PHEV, BEV), the most significant factor is refueling / charging
cost, indicating that buyers most value potential savings from refueling / charging. While the
coefficient is positive for refueling / charging cost itself, it becomes negative when factoring in
R
household income, which suggests that higher-income households are more conscious of
potential savings from fuel / charging expenditure. This is further reflective of the financial
D
literacy of higher-income families. While vehicle cost was not indicated as a significant factor as
other factors, it would have the most significant impact in the eventual diffusion of EVs by virtue
of affordability. Based on survey results, affordability was provided minimal consideration since
majority of respondents that signified interest to select EVs were not able to afford EVs despite
the maximum down-payment and amortization that the respondents could manage.
Fringe benefits (i.e. reduced registration requirements, reserved parking spaces, number coding
exemptions for EVs) were included in the study, though did not reflect significant effects on
vehicle choice. It is possible that the acquisition cost is a significantly high barrier for buyers to
entertain non-monetary incentives. Another interpretation for the marginal impact of fringe
benefits is the low awareness of EVs locally at the time of the survey. Given that EVs were only
introduced to survey participants at the time of the survey, the participants were not able to
reflect well on the advantages and disadvantages of EVs, thereby focusing on cost-related
factors. However, proponents of this study believe that fringe benefits play an important role in
stimulating initial technology adoption and technological awareness. For example, upon
145
exposure to reserved parking slots for EVs and number coding benefits, people gradually tend
to become more curious and attempt to learn more about EVs, eventually realising its actual
value.
EV sales growth would be slow without incentives (Figure 3-2). By 2030, annual PHEV and BEV
sales would only increase to about 11,660 and 1,196 units, respectively. It is assumed however,
that all EV variants would be available; otherwise, less sales are expected. With the provision of
tax incentives, sales could increase up to three-fold for PHEVs (31,391 units), and up to six-fold
for BEVs (7,7474) by 2040 (Figure 3-3).
LY
N
O
Figure 3-2 Baseline Scenario Projections
Source: Own work
T
AF
R
D
Figure 3-3 Tax Incentive Scenario Projections

Source: Own work
It is further important to consider the potential impacts of public transport and accessibility
improvements to future EV growth (Figures 3-4 and 3-5). Public transport improvements could
reduce private vehicle demand by up to about 57% by 2030, which translates to a decrease of
annual total private household vehicle sales from 299,000 to 112,000 units (37%). PHEV annual
sales would thus decrease from 11,660 to 4,359, without tax incentives or from 39,391 to
146
11,734 units, assuming tax incentives. BEV annual sales would also decrease to 447 units,
without tax incentives or to 2,794 units, assuming tax incentives.
Figure 3-4 Public Transport and Accessibility Improvement (Baseline Scenario)
LY
Source: Own work
N
O
T
AF
R
D
Figure 3-5 Public Transport and Accessibility Improvement (Tax Incentive Scenario)
Source: Own work
Projected 2030 sales volumes per variant is shown in Figure 3-6. For ICEVs, subcompact
sedans would remain the most popular variant in the country. For electric variants, the most
popular choice would be the PHEV subcompact sedan, PHEV mini-compact sedan, followed by
the BEV subcompact sedan.
147
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
VanInt
FunPlu
FulBat
MPVBat
PicBat
SubInt
MPVPlu
ComBat
MidBat
MinBat
FulPlu
PicPlu
CroBat
MinPlu
FunInt
ComPlu
MidPlu
CroPlu
MPVInt
FulInt
PicInt
SubBat
VanBat
ComInt
CroInt
MidInt
MinInt
SubPlu
VanPlu
FunBat
Baseline w/ Tax Incentive
Figure 3-6 Sales per Variant, 2030

Source: Own work
LY
3.2 Commercial and Government Vehicles
N
For the commercial and government vehicle market, the rate of adoption could be slow in the
absence of supportive regulations. Table 3-4 shows assumed government-mandated adoption
O
rates until 2030. The rates refer to the share of new vehicle purchases to each segment per
year. The EV demand estimates in section 3.3 assume the adoption rates will be implemented.
T
Table 3-4 Assumed government-mandated adoption rates for different market segments
AF
Segment 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Commercial 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
Government 5%
R
PUVs 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

D
The commercial segment includes: tourism industry, taxis, and transport network vehicle
services (TNVS). The tourism industry fleet includes mixed variants (Table 2-18). The annual
growth rate of commercial vehicles is anchored on projected GDP growth. For the PUV
segment, which includes city buses, public utility jeepneys, and tricycles, population is based on
official data tabulated in Table 2-17, while annual growth is anchored on projected population
growth. Moreover, for government vehicles, annual new registrations was based on official
registration data tabulated in Table 2-19. Projections on the mix of government vehicle variants
was based on official vehicle registration data (LTO, 2017).
3.3 Best-Case Projection EV Adoption
The best case for EV diffusion in the country requires the introduction of tariff, excise tax
incentives, and minimum thresholds for EV adoption in corporate, government, and public
148
transport fleets. Under a best-case scenario, total vehicle fleet could be assumed at 300,000
EVs by 2030. This is expected to mostly be privately-owned units, though diffusion in other
sectors is also key in priming the market. Figure 3-7 provides the projected annual EV sales and
stock size from 2020 to 2030.
45000
40000 City Buses
Taxi
New EVs per year
35000
30000 Tour Vehicles
25000 TNVS
20000 Government Vehicles
15000 Public Utility Jeepneys
10000
Tricycles
5000
BEV
LY
0
PHEV
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
N
O
300000
City Buses
250000 Taxi
T
Total EV Stock
Tour Vehicles
200000
AF
TNVS
150000 Government Vehicles
100000 Public Utility Jeepneys
R
Tricycles
50000
D
Private (BEV)
0 Private (PHEV)
2025
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Figure 3-7 Projected composition of new EV sales and EV stock, tax incentive scenario
Source: Own work
149
3.4 Summary
Based on projections, EV diffusion would stagger without the provision of tax incentives.
Applying tax incentives could increase PHEV and BEV sales three-fold and six-fold,
respectively. However, the local EV market ecosystem needs to be developed at the early
stages in order to ensure that potential cost reductions could diffuse nationwide. With tax
incentives, annual PHEV sales could already reach 10,000 units by 2023, assuming all variants
and models are made available. Without tax incentives however, 10,000 units could be reached
only by 2030.
Tax incentives play a key role in accelerating EV sales in its early years. Additional sales
volume created by tax incentives could help sustain EV infrastructure development in the near-
to mid-term and could stimulate the local EV market. Plans for future public mass transport and
city accessibility improvements have to be considered, noting the potential detriment to private
household vehicle sales.
LY
Aside from private vehicle demand, commercial, government, and public utility vehicles could
create a significant demand for EVs. While private household EV ownership is demand-driven,
commercial, government, and public utility EV ownership could be largely influenced by policy.
N
However, an in-depth cost-benefit analysis needs to be performed for each segment in order to
determine a more robust recommendation for an adoption rate.
O
Developing the local EV infrastructure and implementing fringe benefits to increase EV curiosity,
T
literacy, and awareness is crucial in dictating the interest of the market to EVs.
AF
R
D
150
REFERENCES
Argonne National Laboratory. 2017. Alternative Fuel Life-Cycle Environmental and Economic
Transportation (AFLEET) Tool.
Land Transportation Office. 2017. Registered Motor Vehicles by Classification and Region.
[Online]. Accessed from: https://www.gov.ph/data/dataset/registered-motor-vehicles-
classification-and-region.
Mitsubishi Motor Philippines Corporation. 2018. Actual vehicle prices.
Monorom, R., Soliman, J., Fillone, A., Biona, J.B., Lopez, N.S. 2018. Analysis of Vehicle
Survival Rates for Metro-Manila. In Proceedings of 2018 IEEE HNICEM Conference.
DOI: 10.1109/HNICEM.2018.8666408.
Monorom, R., Doi, K., Gue, I.H., Fillone, A., Soliman, J., Mayol, A.P., Lopez, N.S., Ubando, A.,
LY
Biona, J.B.M. 2018. Understanding of Determinants of Household Vehicle Ownership
Level toward Urban Sustainable Transportation in Southeast Asia – A Case Study in
Metro Manila. In Proceedings of 2018 IEEE HNICEM Conference. DOI:
10.1109/HNICEM.2018.8666265.
N
Philippine Statistics Authority. 2010. Population growth projections per region.
O
Philippine Statistics Authority. 2015. Family Income and Expenditure Survey.
T
Toyota Motor Philippines Corporation. 2018. Actual vehicle prices.

AF
R
D
151
EV Charging Impacts to the Power Grid
This chapter discusses the potential impacts of the best-case EV diffusion scenario to the power
grid. As discussed in Chapter 3, the best-case diffusion scenario is attained through tax
incentives for EV purchasing, coupled with EURO 6 standards implementation, which marginally
increases EV sales. A behavioural model was created for this study to simulate probabilistic
charging demand. The objective of this chapter is to determine the amount of additional power
generation reserve necessary for 2020-2030 in order to satisfy the additional power
requirements to support EV charging.
4.1 Charging Behaviour
Travel behaviour is expected to significantly dictate the charging behavior of EV owners and
operators. Surveys were conducted in Metro Manila to determine the travel pattern of
households including AM start time of travel, distance to workplace, number of hours spent at
LY
the place of employment, average number of destinations daily (i.e. including personal errands).
For household owners, it was assumed that all PHEV owners would be charging from home due
N
to the significant cost difference between home and commercial charging. Owners could easily
shift to ICE mode if needed. Charging behavior could be classified as either occasional (i.e.
O
charging when needed) or frequent (i.e. charging when an opportunity arises even prior to
battery critical level).
T
Figure 4-1 provides the simulated hourly power requirement pattern by household EV owners
AF
for both occasional and frequent charging based on surveyed travel patterns.
R
Occasional Charging, Baseline Scenario

D
1200
Electricity Demand (kW)
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Time of Day (24-hour format)
Oc-BL, Day 1 Oc-BL, Day 2 Oc-BL, Day 3
Oc-BL, Day 4 Oc-BL, Day 5
152
Frequent Charging, Baseline Scenario
1200
Electricity Demand (kW)
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Time of Day (24-hour format)
Fr-BL, Day 1 Fr-BL, Day 2 Fr-BL, Day 3 Fr-BL, Day 4 Fr-BL, Day 5
Figure 4-1. Comparison of daily demand curves from occasional and frequent charging
scenarios
Source: Own work
LY
Hourly private household EV charging demand is obtained through the highest demand for each
hour over a 5-day range, i.e. Monday to Friday. Figure 4-1 illustrates comparisons of day-to-day
differences in charging demand from occasional and frequent charging. The day-to-day
N
variation in demand is larger when drivers occasionally charge, while it is more consistent when
O
drivers frequently charge. Drivers only charge when the battery is lower than 20% under an
occasional charging scenario, while batteries below 80% are charged under a frequent
scenario. Driving requirements were also assumed to be equal in all days to simplify the
T
modeling process. Moreover, charging availability in the workplace and commercial

AF
establishments was gradually increased from 10% in 2022 to 20% in 2030 to provide more
opportunities, particularly for BEV owners to charge in public places.
In modeling charging demand for commercial, government, and public utility vehicles, the daily
R
travel distances in Table 4-1 were used. The assumed power ratings of chargers for each
D
segment and variant are shown in Table 4-2.
Table 4-1 Assumed daily kilometers traveled by segment

Segment Daily kilometres traveled
Travel and Tours 200 km
Government 100 km
Taxi 250 km
TNVS 200 km
Source: Lopez et al. (2018)
153
Table 4-2 Assumed power ratings for chargers used by variant in the travel and tours,
government, taxi and TNVS segments
Segment Vehicle variant PHEV Charger Capacity BEV Charger Capacity
Car/Sedan 3 kW Commercial 6 kW Commercial
Limousine 3 kW Commercial 6 kW Commercial
AUV/SUV 3 kW Commercial 6 kW Commercial
Travel and
Van 3 kW Commercial 6 kW Commercial
Tours
Minibus 36 kW Fast Charge 36 kW Fast Charge
Chartered Bus 36 kW Fast Charge 36 kW Fast Charge
Others 3 kW Commercial 6 kW Commercial
Cars 3 kW Commercial 1.5 kW Home
UV 3 kW Commercial 1.5 kW Home
Government
SUV 3 kW Commercial 3 kW Commercial
Buses 36 kW Fast Charge 36 kW Fast Charge
LY
Taxis 36 kW Fast Charge 36 kW Fast Charge
TNVS 1.5 kW Home 1.5 kW Home
N
The priority in the selection of charger power rating was to limit charging duration to 9 hours at
O
the maximum, for all commercial, government, and public utility EVs. Considering the high daily
travel distances of commercial EVs relative to household-owned EVs, most commercial PHEVs
and BEVs would respectively need a 3-kW and 6-kW charger ready for use the next day. Larger
T
vehicles, e.g. minibuses and chartered buses, would require a 36-kW fast charger. Most taxis
AF
are expected to be fleet-operated and minimise down-time, which suggests the expectation to
fast charge (i.e. only for 1-3 hours daily). Moreover, as TNVS are mostly private-owned, home
charging is expected using a 1.5-kW charger. To also reduce down-time, a minimal share of
R
charging is expected using a public 36-kW charger.

D
For the charging schedules for the commercial vehicle segment, tourist and government
vehicles were assumed to begin charging at 7PM, when all vehicles are parked in the garages.
Taxi operators were assumed to distribute charging evenly throughout the day, as it would be
expensive to purchase several fast chargers. TNVS were assumed to charge at home, starting
11PM for 7 hours. The use of a 36-kW fast charger to compensate the remaining balance for
TNVS was assumed to be evenly distributed throughout the day. Moreover, it was assumed that
public utility EVs (i.e. e-jeepneys, e-trikes, and e-buses) would be operated under a battery
swapping system and that batteries would be systematically charged, equally distributing the
charging burden in 24-hours.
154
4.2 Projected Grid Demand Additions
Results indicate that under a best-case scenario for EV diffusion, the corresponding EV power
demand would not threaten the power grid. At most, only about 5.3% of projected system
reserves in Luzon, and less in Visayas and Mindanao (~1.5% each) would be consumed. Figure
4-2 shows the projected power demand until 2030 including the total existing and committed
capacities (DOE, 2015). However, system reserves would need to be increased to maintain the
25% off-peak requirement.
25,000
Luzon
Electricity Demand (MW)
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
LY
-
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Total Exsisting Available Capacity

Planned Capacity Addition (PDP 2016)
N Total Committed Capacity (MW)
Projected Demand (w/o EV Charging)
O
Projected Demand (w/ EV Charging)
T
6,000 Visayas
AF
4,000
R
2,000
D
-
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Total Exsisting Available Capacity Total Committed Capacity (MW)

Planned Capacity Addition (PDP 2016) Projected Demand (w/o EV Charging)
155
8,000
Mindanao
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Total Exsisting Available Capacity Total Committed Capacity (MW)
Planned Capacity Addition (PDP 2016) Projected Demand (w/o EV Charging)
Figure 4-2. Projected power demand with and w/o EV charging combined with existing
and committed capacities by region
Source: Own work
Figure 4-3 shows necessary additional reserves. Recommended additional reserves for Luzon,
Visayas, and Mindanao respectively are 25.43MW, 4.44MW, and 5.46MW by 2030.
LY
30.00
N 25.43
Additional Reserves Needed
25.00
for EV Charging (MW)
O
20.00
17.40
Luzon
15.00
T
11.91 Visayas
10.00
AF
Mindanao
5.46
5.00 5.73 4.02
2.22 4.44
0.30 0.91 3.05
0.82 1.03
- 1.29 2.18
R
2020 2022 0.26 2024 2026 2028 2030

(5.00)
D
Figure 4-3. Additional reserve requirement for EV charging

Source: Own work
4.2.1 Hourly Demand Projections
Figures 4-4 to 4-6 respectively shows new Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao hourly grid demands
with the addition of EV charging. Tables 4-3 to 4-5 summarises relevant information on
projected system demand, reserves, capacity additions by the Department of Energy, and the
forecasted demand from EV charging under different scenarios, shown for each region.
156
Luzon 2030
19,000.00
18,000.00
17,000.00
16,000.00
15,000.00
14,000.00
13,000.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
w/ EV Charging w/o EV Charging
Figure 4-4. Combined system and EV charging demand by 2030, Luzon

Source: Own work
Visayas 2030
LY
5,200.00
4,700.00
4,200.00 N
O
3,700.00
3,200.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
T

AF
Figure 4-5. Combined system and EV charging demand by 2030, Visayas

Source: Own work
R
D
Mindanao 2030
5,200.00
4,700.00
4,200.00
3,700.00
3,200.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Figure 4-6. Combined system and EV charging demand by 2030, Mindanao

Source: Own work
157
Table 4-3 Luzon Power Grid Projections
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Total Existing Available
10,361 10,361 10,361 10,361 10,361 10,361
Capacity
Total Committed Capacity
2,650 2,650 2,650 2,650 2,650 2,650
(MW)
Total Capacity Addition (MW)
(based on 2016 Power 1,500 2,750 4,275 6,005 7,920 10,070
Development Plan)
Total Capacity (MW) 14,511 15,761 17,286 19,016 20,931 23,081
System Peak Demand 11,451 12,579 13,828 15,210 16,739 18,432
System Reserves (MW)
(based on 2016 Power 2,863 3,145 3,457 3,802 4,185 4,608
Development Plan)
Frequent / Baseline / Weekday
EV Charging Peak, MW 0.64 5.08 19.61 35.98 53.97 76.79
LY
EV Charging Peak, % of
0.02% 0.16% 0.57% 0.95% 1.29% 1.67%
Reserves
EV Charging Weekday Total
7.29 72.45 268.62 494.26 741.07 1052.39
(MWh)
Stock PHEV 605
N
3,592 15,709 28,547 43,154 61,177
O
Stock BEV 14 254 1,237 2,844 4,558 7,938
Frequent / Tax Incentive / Weekday
T
0.10% 0.51% 1.83% 3.10% 4.30% 5.31%
AF
Reserves
24.50 168.22 754.03 1485.71 2292.07 3130.93
(MWh)
R
Stock PHEV 1,448 9,630 42,737 81,058 122,484 170,164

Stock BEV 366 2,620 11,920 24,364 36,640 51,752
D
Occasional / Baseline / Weekday

0.02% 0.13% 0.42% 0.69% 0.93% 1.21%
Reserves
5.34 59.35 202.04 361.54 532.20 756.96
(MWh)
Stock PHEV 605 3,592 15,709 28,547 43,154 61,177
Stock BEV 14 254 1,237 2,844 4,558 7,938
Occasional / Tax Incentive / Weekday
0.05% 0.32% 1.21% 2.07% 2.77% 3.58%
Reserves
15.56 132.32 531.89 1016.96 1535.25 2124.38
(MWh)
Stock PHEV 1,448 9,630 42,737 81,058 122,484 170,164
158
Stock BEV 366 2,620 11,920 24,364 36,640 51,752
Source: Own work
Table 4-4 Visayas Power Grid Projections

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019 2,019
Capacity
Total Committed Capacity
343 343 343 343 343 343
(MW)
(based on 2016 Power 964 1,392 1,838 2,348 2,876 3,618
Development Plan)
LY
(based on 2016 Power 616 703 802 915 1,044 1,191
Development Plan)
EV Charging Peak, MW
0.04
0.01%
N
0.33
0.05%
1.30
0.16%
2.41
0.26%
3.66
0.35%
5.27
0.44%
O
Reserves
0.47 4.75 17.80 33.13 50.26 72.19
(MWh)
T
Stock PHEV 39 235 1,041 1,914 2,927 4,197

AF
Stock BEV 1 17 82 191 309 545

R
0.03% 0.15% 0.52% 0.86% 1.17% 1.41%
Reserves
D

1.59 11.03 49.97 99.59 155.46 214.78
(MWh)
Stock PHEV 94 631 2,832 5,434 8,308 11,673
Stock BEV 24 172 790 1,633 2,485 3,550
0.00% 0.04% 0.12% 0.19% 0.25% 0.32%
Reserves
0.35 3.89 13.39 24.23 36.10 51.93
(MWh)
Stock PHEV 39 235 1,041 1,914 2,927 4,197
Stock BEV 1 17 82 191 309 545
0.01% 0.09% 0.34% 0.58% 0.75% 0.95%
Reserves
159
1.01 8.67 35.25 68.17 104.13 145.73
(MWh)
Stock PHEV 94 631 2,832 5,434 8,308 11,673
Stock BEV 24 172 790 1,633 2,485 3,550
Source: Own work
Table 4-5 Mindanao Power Grid Projections

2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
1,497 1,497 1,497 1,497 1,497 1,497
Capacity
Total Committed Capacity (MW) 1,086 1,086 1,086 1,086 1,086 1,086
(based on 2016 Power 705 1,215 1,630 2,250 2,875 3,650
Development Plan)
LY
(based on 2016 Power 602 695 804 929 1,073 1,240
Development Plan)
EV Charging Peak, MW 0.05
N
0.41 1.59 2.97 4.53 6.54
O
0.01% 0.06% 0.20% 0.32% 0.42% 0.53%
Reserves
T

0.57 5.80 21.85 40.82 62.16 89.60
(MWh)
AF
Stock PHEV 48 288 1,278 2,358 3,620 5,209

Stock BEV 1 20 101 235 382 676
R

D
0.04% 0.18% 0.64% 1.05% 1.41% 1.68%
Reserves
1.93 13.47 61.32 122.71 192.27 266.58
(MWh)
Stock PHEV 114 771 3,476 6,695 10,274 14,488
Stock BEV 29 210 969 2,012 3,074 4,406
0.01% 0.05% 0.15% 0.23% 0.30% 0.38%
Reserves
0.42 4.75 16.43 29.86 44.64 64.45
(MWh)
Stock PHEV 48 288 1,278 2,358 3,620 5,209
Stock BEV 1 20 101 235 382 676
160
0.02% 0.11% 0.42% 0.70% 0.91% 1.13%
Reserves
1.23 10.60 43.26 83.99 128.78 180.88
(MWh)
Stock PHEV 114 771 3,476 6,695 10,274 14,488
Stock BEV 29 210 969 2,012 3,074 4,406
Source: Own work
4.2.2 EV charging demand by market segment

Figures 4-7 to 4-9 details the hourly charging breakdown of various EV variants. In 2020 (short-
term), charging demand would mostly come from private EV (household) and government-
owned EVs. In 2024 (mid-term), charging from other market segments would be significant. In
2030 (long-term), charging would be dominated by the large household EV market. It has been
observed that, household charging would resume until evening late hours, i.e. 1AM onwards,
LY
representing users working late. Charging demand is consistently low between 12PM to 1PM,
while peak charging demand is around 8:30PM.
N
Luzon 2020
O
3
2.5
T
2
1.5
AF
1
0.5
R
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
EV (Private, Frequent, Tax Incentive) e-Jeeps
D
e-Trikes e-Buses
e-Tour Vehicles e-Government Vehicles
e-Taxis e-TNVS
161
Visayas 2020
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

e-Trikes e-Buses
e-Taxis e-TNVS
LY
Mindanao 2020
0.25
0.15
0.2
N
O
0.1
T
0.05
AF
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

R
e-Trikes e-Buses
D
e-Taxis e-TNVS
Figure 4-7. Projected power demand from EV charging in 2020, various segments
Source: Own work
162
Luzon 2024
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

e-Trikes e-Buses
e-Taxis e-TNVS
Visayas 2024
5
LY
4
3
2
1 N
O
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
T

e-Trikes e-Buses
AF

e-Taxis e-TNVS
R
Mindanao 2024
D
6
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

e-Trikes e-Buses
e-Taxis e-TNVS
Source: Own work
163
Luzon 2030
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
e-Trikes e-Buses
e-Taxis e-TNVS
Visayas 2030
20
LY
15
10 N
O
5
T
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
AF

e-Trikes e-Buses
R
e-Taxis e-TNVS
D
164
Mindanao 2030
25
20
15
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

e-Trikes e-Buses
e-Taxis e-TNVS
LY
Source: Own work
Moreover, Figure 4-10 shows the bi-annual increase in power demand from combined charging
of private, commercial, and public utility EVs, with the peak reaching 240MW by 2030 in Luzon.
N
O
This represents the best-case EV diffusion scenario.
T
Luzon
AF
300
250
R
200
D
150
100
50
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
165
Visayas
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
LY
Mindanao
22
20
18 N
O
16
14
12
T
10
8
AF
6
4
2
R
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
D
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Figure 4-10. Bi-annual hourly demand from combined private and public EV charging,
frequently charging scenario with tax incentive (best-case)
Source: Own work
166
REFERENCES
Department of Energy. 2015. Power Development Plan 2016-2040. [Online]. Accessed

from: https://www.doe.gov.ph/electric-power/power-development-plan-2016-2040.
Lopez, N.S., Soliman, J., Biona, J.B.M. 2018. Life Cycle Cost and Benefit Analysis of Low
Carbon Vehicle Technologies. In S. De et al. (Eds.), Sustainable Energy Technology and
Policies: A Transformational Journey, Volume 2, Green Energy and Technology (pp. 131-
146). Singapore: Springer Nature.
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5 Life Cycle Cost and Cost and Benefit Analysis
This chapter provides a detailed analysis of the life cycle cost of owning electric vehicles and its
societal cost and benefits relative to conventional vehicles.
5.1 Life Cycle Cost

Vehicle ownership entails expenditures on purchase, maintenance, and fuel or energy needed
for its operation. Minor costs, i.e. vehicle insurance and registration, are also required. Minor
cost components were assumed to not vary significantly across the different technologies. The
succeeding sections provide detailed discussions on estimated costs for vehicles and
corresponding maintenance and energy expenditures.
5.1.1 Vehicle Cost
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A retail cost model for BEVs and PHEVs was developed based on the:
- ICEV-BEV production cost multipliers of Propfe et al. (2012) and Van Velzen (2016);
- ICEV cost structure of Rogozhin et al. (2009), Canadian Auto Workers (2012), and Vyas
et al (2000); and N
- EV production cost structures of Fries et al (2018) and Wolfram and Lutsey (2016).
O
The model was validated by comparisons with ICEV retail cost and announced retail prices of
EVs in the country. Figure 5-1 illustrates model-generated comparisons among BEV, PHEV,
T
and ICEV costs for 2019.

AF
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
R
3,000,000
D
2,000,000
1,000,000
-
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
MC Car SC Car C Car M Car MPV Pick up C SUV M SUV F SUV Van
Vehicle Cost Importation Tariff Excise Taxes VAT
Figure 5-1. Retail cost comparisons by vehicle variant, 2019

Source: Own work
Expectedly, the base price of BEVs and PHEVs is higher compared to ICEVs resulting in higher
retail prices despite excise tax reduction. To note, majority of vehicles in the country are
imported from countries with free trade agreements, e.g. ASEAN Free Trade Area Agreements
168
(ATIGA), ASEAN-Korea FTA (AKFTA), Philippines-Japan Economic Partnership Agreements
(PJEPA), which either sets tariff exemptions or significant tariff reductions. Table 5-1 provides
the average importation tariff by variant based on 2018 sales records.
Table 5-1. Average importation tariff based on sales of top 5 models by variant
Variant Average Tariff Paid
Mini Compact Car 0.37%
Sub Compact Car 0.00%
Compact Car 0.23%
Mid-size / Full size Car 12.51%
MPV 0.00%
Sub-Compact / Cross-over SUV 6.40%
Mid-size SUV 0.00%
Full-size SUV 15.18%
Pick up 0.00%
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Vans 2.92%
Source: Own elaboration, sales records based on Sevilla-Mendoza (2019)
N
All top five mini-compact car models in the country, except for the Hyundai EON are sourced
O
within ASEAN, while sub-compact cars are either fully locally produced or sourced within the
region. Among the top-selling compact car models in the country, only one model is sourced
outside the region, i.e. South Korea. Leading MPV, mid-size SUVs, and pick-ups are fully
T
sourced within ASEAN. A more diverse trend governs the full-size car, sub-compact SUVs /
AF
crossovers segment, wherein top models are imported from a mix of countries within and
beyond ASEAN.
R
In the absence of sales data, considering that electric cars are yet to be offered in the local
market, importation tariff adopted in the study calculations was based on the BEV and PHEV
D
market share of models announced for release, respectively at 23% and 20%.
Minimal tariffs imposed on ICEVs further puts EVs at a disadvantage. In addition, the larger
base price increases the value added tax levied, which worsens the price gap between EVs and
ICEVs.
Figure 5-2 provides future EV and PHEV cost simulations of the model based on battery
capacity and future battery costs (Van Velzen, 2016; Soulopoulos, 2017; Berckmans et al.,
2017), and vehicle efficiency estimates (Hill et al., 2015; Wu et al., 2015; Van Velzen, 2016).
Calculations were based on a 3% annual inflation rate. In parallel, projected ICEV costs are
provided to highlight the purchase price parity of EVs under various scenarios, i.e. continued
EURO 4 vehicle standard implementation, and EURO 6 standard implementation. A shift to
EURO 6 is expected to increase ICEV costs estimated in Figure 5-2.
169
Van
Full-size SUV
Mid size SUV
Pick-up
MPV
Full-size Sedan
Compact Sedan
Subcompact Sedan
Mini-Compact Sedan
0.94 0.96 0.98 1 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.1
EURO 6 - EURO 4 ICEV Cost Multiplier
Figure 5-2. EURO 6 - EURO 4 ICEV cost multiplier
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Source: Own work, emission control strategy cost values derived from Sanchez et al (2012)
N
The shift from EURO 4 to EURO 6 primarily impacts the cost of diesel-run vehicles. EURO 6
NOx and PM emission limits are respectively about 75% and 85% lower compared to EURO 4
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and requires advanced in-cylinder control and after-treatment interventions. Adoption of EURO
6 is thus expected to improve the price competitiveness of EVs and PHEVs particularly for
larger light duty vehicle segments.
T
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Projections indicate that the purchase price parity between EVs and ICEVs may not be
immediately expected across all vehicle variants. The shift to EURO 6 however, improves the
viability of EVs, particularly in diesel-dominated segments, though to a limited degree.
R
D
Mini Compact Car Sub-Compact Car

2,000,000 3,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
1,000,000
500,000
- -
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
ICEV Euro 4 and 6 PHEV BEV ICEV Euro 4 and 6 PHEV BEV
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Compact Car Mid-size Car
3,000,000
5,000,000
2,500,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000 2,000,000
500,000 1,000,000
- -
2021
2025
2029
2019
2023
2027
2031
2033
2035
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
ICEV Euro 4 and 6 PHEV BEV
ICEV Euro 4 ICEV Euro 6
PHEV BEV
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Multipurpose Vehicle (MPV) Crossover / Sub-compact SUV
3,000,000 5,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
N 4,000,000
O
3,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000 2,000,000
T
500,000 1,000,000
AF
- -
2021
2019
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2023
2019
2021
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
R
ICEV Euro 4 ICEV Euro 6 ICEV Euro 4 ICEV Euro 6

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PHEV BEV PHEV BEV
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Mid-size SUV Full-size SUV
4,500,000 9,000,000
4,000,000 8,000,000
3,500,000 7,000,000
3,000,000 6,000,000
2,500,000 5,000,000
2,000,000 4,000,000
1,500,000 3,000,000
1,000,000 2,000,000
500,000 1,000,000
- -
2021
2019
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2023
2019
2021
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
PHEV BEV PHEV BEV
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Pick-up Vans
3,500,000 5,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
N 3,000,000
O
1,500,000 2,000,000
1,000,000
T
1,000,000
500,000
AF
- -
2021
2019
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2023
2019
2021
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
R

PHEV BEV PHEV BEV
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Figure 5-3. ICEV and PHEV cost projections

Source: Own calculations
Interestingly, BEVs could be expected to be cheaper relative to PHEVs by 2025 based on the
current vehicle tax structure. This point of parity is expected sooner for full-size SUV variants
wherein inflation effects are expected to increase PHEV base prices to the next price group,
effectively raising applicable excise tax rates.
5.1.2 Energy Cost
A main advantage of EVs is the lower energy cost. Figure 5-4 summarises the net present value
of the life cycle energy costs of vehicles. Expectedly, BEV energy costs are lowest, followed by
PHEVs. Cost difference between EVs and ICEVs is higher in car segments, which are mostly
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gasoline-fueled, thereby representing a higher unit price. In addition to lower fuel unit costs,
diesel vehicles, i.e. most SUVs, vans, and pick-ups, are thermodynamically more efficient.
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
PHP
1,000,000
500,000
-
MC SC C SedanF Sedan MPV Pick-up C SUV M SUV F SUV Van
Sedan Sedan
ICEV PHEV BEV
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Figure 5-4. Life cycle energy cost NPV
N
The energy cost trajectory for models rolled out in the future are provided in Figure 5-5.
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1.30
1.25
T
1.20
1.15
AF
1.10
PHP
1.05
1.00
0.95
R
0.90
0.85
D
0.80
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
BEV PHEV ICEV
Figure 5-5. Net energy present cost trajectory (real value 2019)
BEV efficiency improvements are expected from developments in battery technology and
corresponding vehicle weight reductions. While following a similar trajectory, benefits are more
limited for PHEVs. The net energy present cost for ICEV models is expected to increase
continuously through 2030. The trajectory for ICEVs is expected to be predominantly governed
by fuel prices as improvements in vehicle efficiency is minimal.
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A more detailed discussion of assumptions adopted is provided. The charged energy cost for
BEVs and PHEVs consists of: the add-on charging service cost and the cost of charged energy.
Table 5-2 provides estimates of resulting add-on charging cost for various options. The cost and
operational assumptions adopted are provided.
Table 5-2. Charging system assumptions and cost details
Level 1 Level 2 Fast Charge

Item
Home Public Public
Cost Breakdown (PHP)
Hardware cost 50,000 100,000 1,500,000
Electrical material 5,000 - -
Contracted electric, construction services, including
- 30,000 500,000
materials
Transformer - - 500,000
Labor (applicable only for direct hires) 3,000 - -
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Assumptions
Power Rating (kW) 3.3 6.6 44
Hours of utilisation per day 6 10 8
Annual energy delivered (kWh / year) N 6989 23298 126324
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Economic Life (yrs) 10 10 10
Lifetime Energy Delivered (kWh) 69,894 232,980 1,263,240
Charging add-on cost breakdown (PHP per kWh)
T
Capital Recovery + Interest 1.24 0.83 2.95

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Labor (Charging + Maintenance) 0.00 0.23 0.60

Overhead 0.00 0.21 0.71
Profit 0.00 0.26 0.85
R
Value Added Tax 0.00 0.18 0.61

Total Charging Add-On Cost (PHP per kWh) 1.24 1.72 5.72
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Interestingly, fast chargers entail significant add-on costs, which affect attractiveness among
private EV owners. However, fast chargers are significant in managing driving range anxiety
and in supplying power particularly for commercial EV owners, wherein daily travel distance
could exceed the vehicle range. Introduction of network services for fast chargers and
innovative pricing mechanisms, shown in Table 1-22, is important to increase utilisation rates
consequently reducing charging costs.
Energy cost varies depending on power consumed and nature of connection in the country.
Figure 5-6 details the base power rates assumed in the analysis. Rates for a 600-kWh
residential monthly power consumption range was assumed for home charging systems, while
3.8-kVA and 115-kVA general service connection rates were assumed respectively for slow and
fast charging systems. Increases in the real value (2019) of power is expected and was
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quantified based on projected changes in coal, natural gas, and petroleum prices, derived from
the World Bank (2019).
12.00
VAT
Fit-all
10.00
Universal Charge
Local Franchise Tax
8.00 Snr. Citizen Subsidy
Lifetime Rate subsidy
PHP
6.00 Lifetime Discount

Metering Customer Charge
Metering Charge
4.00
Supply Customer Charge
Supply Charge
2.00 Distribution Charge
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System Losses
0.00 Transmission Charge
Slow Home Slow Public Fast Public Generation Charge
Charge Charge Charge
N
O
Figure 5-6. Typical power rates for various charging options
Source: Own elaboration based on Meralco (2018a) and Meralco (2018b)
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Depending on peak power rating and power consumed, power rates for public charging points
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could be lower than residential rates. It is recommended to consider exempting charging power
rates from subsidy shares, i.e. lifetime rate, senior citizen, universal charge, and fit-all share,
which, in total, could slash off more than PHP0.70 from the power rates.
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Computations made use of average official market prices for the second quarter of 2019 (DOE,
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2019), wherein gasoline and diesel base unit costs are respectively at PHP54.83 and
PHP43.79. Future fuel price increases were projected by adjusting non-taxable components to
linearly follow projected increases in petroleum prices (Figure 5-7).
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3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
PHP
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
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Coal ( US EIA, 2018) Natural Gas ( US EIA, 2018)
Petroleum ( US EIA, 2018) Diesel ( Own Calculation )
Gasoline ( Own Calculation )
N Charged Power ( Own Calculation )
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Figure 5-7. Future energy and fuel unit cost multiplier projections (based on nominal
values)
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5.1.3 Maintenance Cost

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Table 5-3 provides the maintenance cost by vehicle type for various segments per km. Values
were derived from adjusted values of maintenance items provided by Propfe et al (2012).
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Adjustments took into account local costs of parts and services. Generally, ICEVs were found to
be more expensive to maintain despite assumptions that EV batteries used would be replaced
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within the vehicle life.
Table 5-3. Maintenance costs by vehicle segment

Variant ICEV (PHP/km) BEV (PHP/km) PHEV (PHP/km)
Mini-Compact Sedan 1.16 0.74 0.62
Subcompact Sedan 1.31 0.82 0.74
Compact Sedan 1.31 0.83 0.75
Full-size Sedan 1.53 0.99 0.90
MPV 1.31 0.84 0.76
Pick-up 2.07 1.28 1.13
Crossover / Compact SUV 1.71 1.06 0.93
Mid size SUV 2.07 1.28 1.13
Full-size SUV 2.37 1.39 1.17
Van 2.12 1.33 1.18
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Figure 5-8 provides a snapshot of the maintenance cost breakdown of ICEVs, PHEVs, and
BEVs.
2.50 Tires Air conditioning

Cabin air Filter Multimedia
PE: DC/DC PE: DC/AC
2.00 PE: AC/DC charger
Traction e-motor Traction Battery
Fuel Injectors Engine overhaul
1.50 ATF / Gear OIl Clutch
Transmission Brake Fluid+Bleeding
Brake Disk Brake Pad
1.00 Fuel Pump Automotive battery
Radiator Alternator
Starter motor Spark Plug
0.50 Drive Belt Timing Belt
Air Filter Fuel Filter
Muffler Catalytic Converter
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0.00 Exhaust O2 Sensor Engine Oil
ICEV PHEV BEV
N
Figure 5-8. Maintenance cost breakdown of various types of compact sedan, 2019
O
To note, BEV and PHEV maintenance costs could be significantly lower if batteries are not
replaced within the vehicle life, which could be possible depending on how vehicles are utilised.
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Cost computations provided are therefore conservative. Computations assumed that the chance
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for EV batteries to be replaced once within the vehicle life is 25%. Considering that battery
replacement accounts for the bulk of maintenance costs and assuming that battery cost is
decreasing, a downward maintenance cost trajectory could be assumed for EVs despite
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inflationary effects.
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5.1.4 Life Cycle Cost and Breakdown
Figure 5-9 provides the life cycle cost of owning 2019 models of various variants and
technologies. Life cycle cost of PHEVs and BEVs in the car and MPV segments are competitive
compared to ICEVs, with the BEVs entailing lower expenditures despite having the highest
initial cost.
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7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
PHP
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
- PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
BEV
ICEV
ICEV
BEV
ICEV
BEV
ICEV
BEV
ICEV
BEV
ICEV
ICEV
BEV
ICEV
BEV
ICEV
BEV
BEV
ICEV
BEV
MC Car SC Car C Car M Car MPV Pick up C SUV M SYV F SUV Van
Vehicle Energy Maintenance
Figure 5-9. Life cycle cost of 2019 models (NPV)
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The life cycle cost advantage of BEVs mostly lies on its lower energy cost and to an extent, its
lower maintenance cost. Energy also accounts for the largest cost component for ICE cars. A
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different trend however, was found for diesel pick-ups, SUVs, and vans wherein energy costs
were lower compared to gasoline-fueled vehicles, owing to higher efficiencies and lower cost of
diesel, thus the lower life cycle cost of ICEVs.
T
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Efficiency and battery cost improvements are expected to reduce ownership cost of 2025 BEV
models to lower levels than comparable ICEV units (Figure 5-10). PHEV cost of ownership is
expected to increase; however, the removal of excise taxes from PHEV purchase price would
R
reduce ownership costs.

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9,000,000
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
PHP
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
-
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
ICEV
BEV
ICEV
BEV
ICEV
BEV
ICEV
BEV
ICEV
BEV
ICEV
BEV
ICEV
BEV
ICEV
BEV
ICEV
BEV
ICEV
BEV
MC Car SC Car C Car M Car MPV Pick up C SUV M SYV F SUV Van
Vehicle Energy Maintenance
Figure 5-10. Life cycle cost of 2025 models (NPV)
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5.2 Cost and Benefit Analysis N

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This section provides discussions on the contributions of various technologies to tax revenue
generation, local job generation, and balance of payments in the country. In addition, effects on
T
energy security, human health degradation, and GHG social cost were also quantified. The
results of the weighted cost and benefits analyses are provided in the last sub-section. Results
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for the base ICEV case and imported (CBU) and locally assembled (CKD) cases are provided.
Two CKD scenarios were covered, including a scenario with locally-made batteries, controllers,
and motors (CKD-Loc), and a scenario where all components are imported (CKD).
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5.2.1 Tax Revenue Generation
Revenue generation from vehicle tariff and sales taxes, indirect tax generation from vehicle
sales and production (if CKD), fuel and energy sales taxes and indirect taxes, and direct and
indirect taxes from maintenance activities and product used. Vehicle tariff and sales taxes
covers the importation duties paid on vehicles or parts (if CKD), excise taxes, and value added
tax (VAT). Indirect taxes refer to the revenue collected from the economic activity generated by
product or service delivery. Tax generation was based on the PSA (2012) Input-Output Table.
Figure 5-11 provides comparisons and breakdown of tax revenue generated from vehicle
purchase and ownership.
As discussed in section 5.1.1, the average importation tariff on vehicles are minimal for most
variants, hence, the minimal revenue generated from the sales of the affected ICEV variants,
i.e. particularly for mini-, sub-, and compact cars, MPVs, and pick-ups. The lower base cost
179
(vehicle + tariff) of ICEVs also minimizes the excise taxes paid despite higher rates levied,
consequently affecting the value added taxes collected. Higher taxes levied on gasoline
however, compensates for the collection shortfall over time resulting in higher collections
relative to BEV car segments. For PHEV cars however, combination of tariff, excise tax, and
fuel tax collections results in higher revenues. To note, unlike BEVs, PHEVs are levied with
excise taxes, though at a reduced rate compared to ICEVs. In addition, revenue generated from
purchase and ownership of predominantly diesel-fueled variants, i.e. pick-ups, SUVs, and vans,
is lower compared to BEVs and PHEVs as a result of lower taxes imposed on diesel fuel and
the generally more fuel-efficient performance compared to gasoline. Across all vehicle
technologies, the contribution from indirect taxes from vehicle production and sales and service
and parts maintenance is minimal.
In general, local production of vehicles would decrease revenue collections. Collections could
be significantly improved through localising production of EV batteries, which accounts for about
40% - 70% of vehicle production cost depending on the range.
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Figures 5-12 and 5-13 respectively provides the tax revenue generation growth for future
compact cars, typically gasoline, and mid-size SUVs, typically diesel. Projected increases in
natural gas global prices beyond 2022 and 2031 and coal beyond 2031. The impact of energy
N
price changes will be lesser on locally produced vehicles due to the higher tax base in 2019.
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Vehicle price increases due to inflation would push compact vehicle prices to a higher excise tax
price range in 2029, translating to a sudden jump in contribution.
T
Except for the sudden jump in ICEV revenue collections in 2029, a similar trend could be
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observed for the tax collection trajectories of BEVs and PHEVs in the mid-size SUV segment for
similar reasons.
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1
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
0.95
1.05
1.15
1.25
1.35
2019
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
2020
2021 ICEV - Base
BEV - CBU
2022 PHEV - CBU
2023 BEV - CKD
BEV - CKD Loc
MC Car
2024 PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc
2025 ICEV - Base
BEV - CBU
2026 PHEV - CBU
BEV - CKD
2027
SC Car
BEV - CKD Loc
2028 PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc
2029 ICEV - Base
Vehicle Tariff and Tax
BEV - CBU
2030 PHEV - CBU
D C Car
BEV - CKD
(based on nominal values)

BEV - CKD Loc
PHEV - CKD
R PHEV -- CKD Loc
ICEV - Base
Loc
Loc
BEV - CBU
PHEV - CBU
BEV - CKD
BEV - CKD Loc
M/F Car
BEV - CKD
BEV - CKD
BEV - CBU
Figure 5-12. Compact car tax revenue trend, 2019-2030

PHEV - CKD
ICEV - Base
PHEV - CKD
PHEV - CBU
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PHEV -- CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc
ICEV - Base
Vehicle Prod and Sales
BEV - CBU
T
181
PHEV - CBU
BEV - CKD
MPV
BEV - CKD Loc
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.3
0.95
1.05
1.15
1.25
1.35
O PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc
2019 ICEV - Base
2020 BEV - CBU

PHEV - CBU
2021
N BEV - CKD
Pick-up
BEV - CKD Loc

2022 PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc
Figure 5-11. Tax revenue share, 2019 Models
2023
ICEV - Base
2024 BEV - CBU
PHEV - CBU
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2025 BEV - CKD
C SUV
BEV - CKD Loc

Power / Energy Service and Sales
2026 PHEV - CKD

2027 PHEV -- CKD Loc
ICEV - Base
2028 BEV - CBU
PHEV - CBU
2029 BEV - CKD
M SUV
BEV - CKD Loc

2030 PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc

ICEV - Base
BEV - CBU
PHEV - CBU
Loc
Loc
BEV - CKD
Maint Parts and Service
F SUV
BEV - CKD Loc

PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc
Figure 5-13. Mid-size SUV tax revenue trend, 2019-2030
BEV - CKD
BEV - CKD
BEV - CBU
ICEV - Base
ICEV - Base
PHEV - CKD
PHEV - CBU
PHEV -- CKD
BEV - CBU
PHEV - CBU
BEV - CKD
Van
BEV - CKD Loc

PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc
5.2.2 Job Generation
The value of jobs generated from the supply, sales, and operation of ICEVs is higher compared
to BEVs and PHEVs anticipated for local market introduction in the near-term (Figure 5-14). The
discrepancy is wider in segments that are dominated by locally-produced models including sub-
compact cars and MPVs. Manpower requirements for fueling and maintenance services are
also generally higher for ICEVs. The local production of BEVs and PHEVs are expected to
boost job generation creating more value than current generations from the supply chain of
ICEVs in the country. Localisation of battery production is expected to further boost job
generation benefits.
Job generation trends for future models of both compact cars (Figure 5-15) and mid-size SUVs
(Figure 5-16) are similar. The job generation nominal value of ICEVs is expectedly higher in
future models due to inflationary effects. Increases in job generation value for imported (CBU)
BEVs and PHEVs will be higher compared to ICEVs due to lower base values. In contrast, job
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generation value growth rate for future models tend to be slower for CBUs due to higher base
values.
N
O
T
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1
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.3
0.95
1.05
1.15
1.25
2019
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2020
2021 ICEV - Base
BEV - CBU
2022 PHEV - CBU
BEV - CKD
MC Car
2023 BEV - CKD Loc
PHEV - CKD
ICEV - Base
2025 BEV - CBU
PHEV - CBU
2026 BEV - CKD
SC Car BEV - CKD Loc
2027
PHEV - CKD
ICEV - Base
2029 BEV - CBU
PHEV - CBU
D
2030 BEV - CKD
C Car
BEV - CKD Loc

PHEV - CKD

PHEV -- CKD Loc
R ICEV - Base
BEV - CBU
PHEV - CBU
BEV - CKD
M/F Car
BEV - CKD Loc

Vehicle Prod and Sales
PHEV - CKD
BEV - CKD
BEV - CBU
PHEV -- CKD Loc
ICEV - Base
PHEV - CKD
PHEV - CBU
ICEV - Base
AF
BEV - CKD Loc
BEV - CBU
PHEV - CBU
PHEV -- CKD Loc
Figure 5-15. Compact car job generation value trend, 2019-2030

BEV - CKD
MPV
183
BEV - CKD Loc
PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc
ICEV - Base
BEV - CBU
1 O PHEV - CBU
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.3
0.95
1.05
1.15
1.25
BEV - CKD
Pick-up
BEV - CKD Loc

2019 PHEV - CKD
2020
N PHEV -- CKD Loc
ICEV - Base
BEV - CBU
2021
Figure 5-14. Job generation, 2019 Models
PHEV - CBU
2022 BEV - CKD
C SUV
Power / Energy Service and Sales
BEV - CKD Loc

2023 PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc
LY
2024 ICEV - Base
BEV - CBU
2025 PHEV - CBU
BEV - CKD
2026
M SUV
BEV - CKD Loc

2027 PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc
2028 ICEV - Base
BEV - CBU
2029 PHEV - CBU
BEV - CKD
2030
F SUV
BEV - CKD Loc

Maint Parts and Service
PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc

ICEV - Base
BEV - CBU
PHEV - CBU
BEV - CKD
Van
BEV - CKD Loc

PHEV - CKD
BEV - CKD
BEV - CBU
PHEV -- CKD Loc

ICEV - Base
PHEV - CBU
BEV - CKD Loc
Figure 5-16. Mid-size SUV job generation value trend, 2019-2030

5.2.3 Balance of Payments
The adoption of imported 2019 BEV and PHEV models are expected to increase trade (export –
import) of the country mainly due to the value of vehicles. Trade increases would negate the
effects of reductions in fuel imports on both technologies. Localisation of assembly and internal
sourcing of batteries however, translates to significant reductions in trade deficits relative to
ICEVs.
The nominal value of trade deficits is expected to increase due to inflationary factors, except for
imported BEVs. Projected improvements in battery price and performance are expected to
reduce battery costs of future models, which translates to reductions in vehicle price of future
models until 2025. Beyond 2025, inflationary effects lead to slight increases in deficits.
LY
N
O
T
AF
R
D
184
1
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
0.95
1.05
1.15
1.25
1.35
-
2019
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
2020
ICEV - Base
2021 BEV - CBU
PHEV - CBU
2022 BEV - CKD
MC Car
BEV - CKD Loc
2023 PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc
2024 ICEV - Base
BEV - CBU
2025 PHEV - CBU
BEV - CKD
2026 SC Car
BEV - CKD Loc
PHEV - CKD
2028 ICEV - Base
BEV - CBU
2029 PHEV - CBU
BEV - CKD
D
C Car
2030 BEV - CKD Loc

PHEV - CKD

PHEV -- CKD Loc
ICEV - Base
R BEV - CBU
PHEV - CBU
BEV - CKD
Fuel
M/F Car
BEV - CKD Loc

PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc
BEV - CKD
BEV - CBU
ICEV - Base
AF ICEV - Base
PHEV - CKD
PHEV - CBU BEV - CBU
Vehicle
PHEV - CBU
BEV - CKD Loc
Figure 5-18. Compact car balance of payment trend, 2019-2030

BEV - CKD
MPV
185
BEV - CKD Loc
PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc
ICEV - Base
1
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
0.95
1.05
1.15
1.25
1.35
BEV - CBU
2019
O PHEV - CBU
BEV - CKD
Pick-up
BEV - CKD Loc

2020 N PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc
2021
Figure 5-17. Trade deficit NPV 2019
ICEV - Base
BEV - CBU
2022 PHEV - CBU
Maint Parts and Supplies
BEV - CKD
2023
C SUV
BEV - CKD Loc

PHEV - CKD
2024
LY
PHEV -- CKD Loc
2025 ICEV - Base
BEV - CBU
2026 PHEV - CBU
BEV - CKD
M SUV
2027 BEV - CKD Loc

PHEV - CKD
ICEV - Base
2029 BEV - CBU
PHEV - CBU
2030 BEV - CKD
F SUV
BEV - CKD Loc

PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc
ICEV - Base
BEV - CBU
Loc
PHEV - CBU
BEV - CKD
Van
BEV - CKD Loc

PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc
BEV - CKD
BEV - CBU
ICEV - Base
PHEV - CKD
PHEV - CBU
PHEV -- CKD
BEV - CKD Loc
Figure 5-19. Mid-size SUV balance of payment trend, 2019-2030

5.2.4 Energy Security
Previous studies indicate that every PHP1.00 spent on petroleum fuel creates a PHP0.05 risk to
the economy (Soliman, 2018). Corresponding energy security risk impacts from energy
consumption across various technologies are provided in Figure 5-20. The calculations took into
account the economic activity lost in the event that a non-supply occurs and the probability of
reoccurring.
Expectedly, energy security risk is highest for ICEVs followed by PHEVs, and by BEVs. Country
imports more than 97% of its crude and petroleum product requirements, putting the economy
at high risk. However, crude-based power generation only accounts for less than 5% of
generation mix, thereby reducing the energy risk in the case of BEVs and PHEVs. Future
increases in nominal value of security risk is expected due to inflationary effects. Impacts on
BEVs however, are marginal considering the minimal share of petroleum in its operational
supply chain.
LY
120,000
100,000
80,000 N
O
60,000
40,000
T
20,000
AF
-
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
R
MC Car SC Car C Car M/F Car MPV Pick-up C SUV M SUV F SUV Van
D
Figure 5-20. Energy security NPV 2019

1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
2019 2025 2030
ICEV BEV PHEV
Figure 5-21. Energy security NPV multipliers, 2019, 2025, 2030 (based on nominal values)
186
5.2.5 Health Impact
Modeling of local health impacts follows a complex process and requires emissions, air
dispersion, and effect factor modeling. To simplify the process, a rapid assessment method was
adopted using emission-based damage cost factors derived from an air pollution impact study in
Metro Manila (Lvosky et al., 2000). Factors derived from Lvosky et al (2000) was adjusted for
changes in population density and inflation.
Resulting health damage impacts emanating from the full life use of various technologies is
provided in Figure 1-22. Health damage from ICEVs is significantly higher than BEVs and
PHEVs, which could be attributed to the higher damage cost factor of tailpipe emissions more
easily inhaled by the public compared to power generation stack emissions. Moreover,
emissions from SUVs, which are predominantly diesel-fueled were found to have significantly
higher health impacts compared to predominantly diesel-fueled cars, due to higher NO x and PM
emission factors.
LY
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
N
O
150,000
100,000
T
50,000
-
AF
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
R
Figure 5-22. Health impact NPV 2019

D
The rate of increase in health costs of future BEV models is faster compared to PHEVs and
ICEVs due to the lower base cost, though resulting health damage cost would remain negligible.
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
2019 2025 2030
ICEV BEV PHEV
Figure 5-23. Health impact NPV multiplier, 2019, 2025, 2030 (based on nominal values)
187
5.2.6 GHG Social Cost
Figure 5-24 provides the amount of GHG generated for various segments across all vehicle
technologies.
250.00
200.00
150.00
g/km
100.00
50.00
0.00
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
LY
MC Car SC Car C Car F Car MPV Pick up C SUV M SUV F SUV Van
Vehicle Use Fuel Prod
N
Figure 5-24. GHG emission factors of 2019 models
O
Interestingly, GHG emissions from ICE vehicle use could be lower than BEVs and PHEVs,
T
particularly for predominantly diesel-run segments, which could be traced to the significant
AF
petroleum share in the generation mix of the grid (Figure 5-24). Overall GHG emissions of BEVs
and PHEVs are however, lower owing to the significantly higher GHG released during the crude
extraction and distillation stages of petroleum products.
R
Hydro Solar Wind

D
1%
Biomass 7% 1% Geothermal
4% 19%
Geothermal
Coal
Diesel
Gas Gas
28% Biomass
Hydro
Coal Solar
Diesel 38%
2% Wind
Figure 5-25. Philippine power generation mix, 2018
Source: Own elaboration based on DOE (2019)
188
The country-specific impact of GHGs is 17.1 USD per tonne based on Ricke et al (2018), which
translates to the GHG social cost NPVs of the various technologies shown in Figure 5-26.
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
-
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
PHEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
ICEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
BEV
Figure 5-26. GHG social cost NPV 2019
LY
1.50
1.40 N
O
1.30
1.20
T
1.10
AF
1.00
0.90
0.80
R
2019 2025 2030

D
ICEV BEV PHEV
Figure 5-27. GHG social cost NPV multiplier, 2019, 2025, 2030 (based on nominal values)
5.2.7 Weighted Cost and Benefit Analysis
Figure 5-29 provides the weighted cost and benefit analysis of the technologies for various
variants in 2019. Weights were generated through analytical hierarchy programming (AHP), an
established multicriteria approach.
189
-
-1,200,000
-1,000,000
200,000
400,000
-800,000
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
ICEV - Base
BEV - CBU
PHEV - CBU
BEV - CKD
MC Car
BEV - CKD Loc
PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc
-
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.25
0.20
ICEV - Base
BEV - CBU
PHEV - CBU
BEV - CKD
SC Car
BEV - CKD Loc
PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc
0.11
ICEV - Base
Tax Rev
BEV - CBU
PHEV - CBU
D BEV - CKD
C Car
Tax Rev
BEV - CKD Loc
PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc
R ICEV - Base
0.13
BEV - CBU
Job Gen
PHEV - CBU
BEV - CKD
M/F Car
Job Gen
BEV - CKD Loc
PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc
AF
ICEV - Base
BEV - CBU
BOP
0.22
PHEV - CBU
BOP
BEV - CKD
T
190
MPV
BEV - CKD Loc

PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc
ICEV - Base
O
BEV - CBU
PHEV - CBU
0.24

BEV - CKD
Pick-up
Energy Sec
BEV - CKD Loc
Energy Sec
PHEV - CKD
N
PHEV -- CKD Loc
Figure 5-28. Cost and Benefit weights
ICEV - Base
BEV - CBU
PHEV - CBU
Health
BEV - CKD
0.19
Health
C SUV
BEV - CKD Loc

PHEV - CKD
LY
PHEV -- CKD Loc
ICEV - Base
BEV - CBU
PHEV - CBU
BEV - CKD
Figure 5-29. Weighted cost and benefit breakdown, 2019 (nominal PHP)
M SUV
Cost
BEV - CKD Loc

0.12
PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc
GHG Social
ICEV - Base
BEV - CBU
GHG Social Cost
PHEV - CBU
BEV - CKD
F SUV
BEV - CKD Loc

PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc
ICEV - Base
BEV - CBU
PHEV - CBU
BEV - CKD
Van
BEV - CKD Loc

PHEV - CKD
PHEV -- CKD Loc
Components that are positive and negative (Figure 5-29) represent desirable and non-
desirable effects respectively. The more negative the vehicle technology scored in total
indicates a more undesirable impact to society. Imported BEVs and PHEVs have more
negative sums compared to ICEVs across the various segments based on the current supply
chain. To allow for positive impacts, BEVs and PHEVs need to be produced locally (CKD)
including batteries and other major parts (CKD-Loc). Similarly, projected battery price
reductions and performance improvements are expected to bring down vehicle cost and
reduce energy consumption, leading to an improved cost-benefit performance. Therefore,
while BEVs have lower net societal benefits compared to PHEVs currently, net benefits from
BEVs is expected to improve faster owing to the larger share of batteries in its cost structure.
Figure 5-30 provides the net benefits of various technology-supply mode pairs for each of
the segments relative to ICEVs. Positive points indicate net benefits. Mini-compact PHEV
cars are expected to provide net benefits relative to ICEVs starting 2024, while net benefits
from BEVs would overtake net benefits from PHEVs after 2024. Sub-compact BEV car
models will start to gain higher net benefits compared to PHEVs beginning 2026, though
BEV and PHEV parity with ICEVs would be reached respectively only in 2027 and 2030.
PHEV and BEV compact car models are expected to obtain comparable net benefits with
LY
ICEVs by 2027, though would slightly dip by 2030 due to expected excise tax rate changes
on ICEV models in 2030, which increases revenue collection.
N
For mid-size cars, MPVs, and pick-up trucks, PHEV and ICEV cost and benefit parity point
O
may not be expected even in 2030. Mid-size BEV cars would barely reach a comparable
parity point with its ICEV counterpart by 2030, while MPVs and pick-up trucks could be
T
expected earlier, respectively in 2028 and 2029. Moreover, mid-size BEV cars would have
higher net benefits compared to mid-size PHEV cars by 2028, while in 2027, BEV MPVs and
AF
BEV pick-up trucks would overtake net benefits from PHEV counterparts.
For PHEV and BEV compact SUVs, cost and benefit values with ICEVs would be
R
comparable in 2027 and 2028, respectively. BEV compact SUV models would start to
D
provide higher net benefits compared to PHEV compact SUVs in 2028. Interestingly, mid-
size PHEV SUVs would already have net benefits relative to ICEVs in 2020, which is
expected to be overtaken by BEVs in 2028. Starting 2025, BEV mid-size SUVs are expected
to provide higher benefits compared to PHEVs. Moreover, for both PHEV and BEV full-size
SUV models, net benefits are not expected to surpass benefits from ICEVs even by 2030.
For vans, PHEV and BEV vans are expected to overtake net benefits of ICEVs respectively
in 2023 and 2025. BEV vans would provide higher net benefits compared to PHEVs starting
2025.
To note, discussions provided refers to imported EVs only as locally-built units are expected
to provide net benefits already at present.
191
Mini Compact Car Sub Compact Car
200,000 300,000
250,000
150,000
200,000
100,000 150,000
PHP
PHP
100,000
50,000 50,000
-
-
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2027
2030
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2028
2029
-50,000
-50,000 -100,000
BEV PHEV BEV PHEV

BEV - CKD BEV - CKD, Loc BEV - CKD BEV - CKD, Loc
PHEV - CKD PHEV -- CKD, Loc PHEV - CKD PHEV -- CKD, Loc
LY
Compact Car Mid Size Car
250,000 300,000
N
200,000
200,000
O
150,000
100,000
100,000
PHP
PHP
T
50,000 -
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
-
AF
-100,000
2021
2024
2027
2030
2019
2020
2022
2023
2025
2026
2028
2029
-50,000
-200,000
-100,000
R
-150,000 -300,000
D
BEV PHEV BEV PHEV

192
MPV Pick up
250,000 400,000
200,000 350,000
150,000 300,000
250,000
100,000
200,000
PHP
PHP
50,000
150,000
-
100,000
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2019
2020
2021
-50,000
50,000
-100,000 -
2021
2019
2020
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
-150,000 -50,000
BEV PHEV BEV PHEV

Crossover / Compact SUV LY Mid-Size SUV

N
350,000 400,000
O
300,000
250,000 300,000
T
200,000
150,000 200,000
AF
100,000
PHP
PHP
100,000
50,000
-
R
-
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
-50,000
2019
2025
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
D
-100,000 -100,000
-150,000
-200,000 -200,000
BEV PHEV BEV PHEV

193
Full Size SUV Vans
500,000 500,000
400,000
400,000
300,000
200,000 300,000
100,000 200,000
PHP
PHP
- 100,000
2019
2022
2025
2020
2021
2023
2024
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
-100,000
-
-200,000
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
-300,000 -100,000
-400,000 -200,000
BEV PHEV BEV PHEV

LY
Figure 5-30. Net Cost and Benefit Analysis with ICEVs (Nominal PHP)
Source: Own calculations N
O
T
AF
R
D
194
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196
6 Recommendations
The specifics of national EV programmes vary depending on local motivations, capability,

and peculiarities. As discussed in previous chapters, key motivations for the country to
pursue EV adoption include:
- Industry preservation and development

- Improved trade deficit from reduced petroleum imports
- Energy security risk reduction
- GHG emission reduction
- Reduced health impacts from transport
In addition, Chapter 5 highlighted that while the current cost and benefit analysis of imported
EVs is less desirable than ICEVs, a positive outlook is expected in the future resulting from
projected reductions in battery cost. Cost-benefit analysis results also highlighted the
potential of locally producing EVs in securing significant benefits and would thus need to be
seriously pursued. Possible benefits may be further magnified through the local production of
LY
batteries and other major parts, which would drastically improve trade deficits. To recall
discussions in Chapter 2, national competitiveness as an automotive manufacturing and
export hub lags behind other ASEAN countries, which has limited local production to only
N
models with adequate local demand. Moreover, discussions in Chapter 1 highlighted the
O
value of creating domestic demand, which has been the core industry strategy of leading EV
countries, e.g. China. Other country experiences also highlighted the need for an integrated
strategy to ensure the success of EV adoption programmes and to maximise combined
T
economic, social, and environmental benefits. Learning from EV lead countries, EV diffusion
AF
interventions could be streamlined through the following forms:
- Incentives and subsidies

R
- Regulations
- Complementary industry development
D
- Demonstration and IEC

- Human resource and development
- Research and development
Recommendations presented in Table 6-1 were framed based on the key strategies.
197
Fiscal and Non-Fiscal
Incentives and Subsidies
production
major components
for BEVs and PHEVs
Eco-PUV programme for

Remove importation tariffs
for EV assembly and parts

EVs, focused on additional
Rationalise fiscal incentives

Formulate and implement an
incentives for locally-sourced

Cost and Affordability
D
R Financing Industry Concerns
Table 6-1. Recommendations and Targeted Impacts
Vehicle Registration Concerns
Technology Familiarity
VEHICLE
EV Standards Implementation
AF
Lack of EV Technical Capacity
T
198
Lack of Charging Infrastructure
O High Investment Cost
Lack of Charging Service Demand

N
Unclear / Lack of Enabling Regulations
Unclear Charging Standards

CHARGING
LY
LGU Permitting Issues
INFRASTRUCTURE
Power Distribution System Safety Risks
Lack of EV and Parts Production Demand
Limited Local Investment Capacity
Battery Raw Material Regulatory Gaps

Uncompetitive Industry Investment
Incentives and Policies
Limited local supply chain
Local Technology Development
INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT
Limitations
Develop a Charging
Infrastructure Masterplan
and introduce
complementing incentives
and government co-
investment to facilitate
charging infrastructure
LY
development and operation
Introduce an incentive
programme to promote EV
adoption in vehicle fleets
N
Formulate and introduce
fringe benefits for EVs
O
Harmonise standard vehicle
classification across
agencies
T
Define a specific Tariff Code
for CBU EVs for clarity and
Government Regulations
flexibility
Formulate and implement a
rationalized EV and
AF
components standards,
testing, and verification
R
programme
Formulate installation
D
standards and permitting

protocols for EV charging
point installation
Integrate charging system
requirements with local
199
building code / regulations
Align charging standard

protocols with the ASEAN
Clarify and formulate
mechanisms and regulations
LY
on charging operation and
rate-setting
Introduce industry
requirements on the adoption
N
of EVs
Lock-in selected public
transport routes to EVs (e.g.
O
CBDs) and introduce share
requirements in other public
transport routes
T
EV Government
Procurement
National Transport and Auto-
AF
complementing
Informatics Industry
industries
Develop
Development Strategy
R
roadmap for the local
D
manufacturing of EV
batteries
Demonstra
Roll-out IEC programmes for

tion and
government including LGUs

IEC
on the regulation, operations,

and technicalities of EVs and
200
charging systems
Establish strategic ‘EV Lead
Cities’ for the testing of
concepts and awareness
promotion, among others
Conduct dialogues and
forums for EV IEC purposes
LY
with various stakeholders
Development
Formulate and operationalise

Resource
an EV Human Resource
Human
Development Programme to
N
support both local and global
requirements
O
Research and Development
Set-up / strengthen the EV

Technology Market
Intelligence Programme to
T
guide R&D initiatives
Formulate and ‘bid out’ a
detailed EV and Smart
Transport R&D Programme
anchored on attaining
AF
specific technological
R
performance targets
Legend:
Indirect impact Direct impact
D
201
Table 6-1 categorised local challenges in terms of vehicle, charging infrastructure
development, and industry development, which are all tied up to the lack of local EV
demand. It is thus, recommended that the national EV programme be anchored on
addressing the identified core challenges for the programme to realise its potential benefits
(Figure 6-1).
OUTCOMES
Better energy security

Demand EV Cost
Generation Reduction Lower imports
More vibrant local

economy
Charging Industry Lower GHG emissions
LY
Infrastructure Development
Development Smarter and greener living
N
O
T
AF
Figure 6-1. Proposed EV programme framework
The four key components could represent the pillars of the EV programme, wherein all
R
components are complementary and the entire programme would not be effective without
D
each component. Details of the specific recommendations comprising each pillar are
provided in the succeeding sub-sections.
6.1 Demand Generation

6.1.1 Corporate EV Fleet Programme
The programme intends to create EV demand in industries operating vehicle fleets.

Considering limitations in funding to subsidise vehicle adoption, a combined regulatory and
incentives approach is recommended. The programme could consider the following industry
regulations in Table 6-2.
202
Table 6-2. Recommended EV fleet share regulations
Industry Regulation
Cargo logistics companies - 5% of the fleet should at least be BEVs or PHEVs
Food delivery companies - Preferential franchising for EVs, where applicable:
Tour agencies
Accommodation / hotels e.g Tour companies are required to maintain a minimum
Utility companies of 10 units for franchise issuance and maintenance,
which could be challenging for most operators. It is
thus recommended, that the equivalent count of EV
units be set at 2 or 3 to incentivize industry adoption
Note: The proposal assumes that the tariff and excise taxes for both BEVs and PHEVs are
removed, as recommended in sub-section 6.2.
6.1.2 Introduce minimum EV share in public transport modes
Similar to the corporate fleet strategy, public transport is a strategic EV market as technology
mix could be regulatory-driven. Table 6-3 provides the recommended regulations for EV
diffusion in the public transport sector.
Public Transport Sub-Sector LY

Table 6-3. Recommended Demand Generation Strategy for Public Transport
Regulation
N
- BRT would be exclusively for e-buses
O
- Require at least 5% of company-owned city buses to
be electric. Existing bus companies would need to
Buses reach the required balance of electric buses to be
T
granted franchise renewal or additional ICEV

AF
franchises. New operators would need to operate at

least 5% of its fleet to be granted a franchise.
- Lock-in all CBD routes and other flat and highly
R
populated areas, where possible, to e-jeepney

services only. The implementation of e-jeepneys in
D
Jeepneys
the areas specified translates to more significant
health benefits and higher potential for on-board
investments, which would augment fare revenues.
- Allocate a certain percentage share of new
Tricycles franchises for release in selected routes to e-tricycles
only
- Require at least 5% of units owned to be electric.
Existing taxi companies would need to reach the
required balance of electric taxis to be granted
franchise renewal or additional ICEV franchises. New
operators would need to operate at least 5% of its
Taxis
fleet to be granted a franchise.
- Extend age limit of EV taxis to 15 years compared to
the 10-year age limit imposed on ICE taxis
- Include EVs as an option for premium taxis and
specifically allocating 50% of franchises for EVs only
203
- Age limit for EV premium taxi services could be set to
10 years compared to the 7-year age limit imposed
on ICE premium taxis
- It is recommended that LTFRB limits the approval of
TNVS new TNVS franchise applications to EVs until 5% of
the whole fleet is EV.
In addition, public transport services in special zones, e.g. Clark and Subic Freeport areas,
and tourist-populated portions of resort islands, e.g. Boracay, Puerto Galera, El Nido, could
be locked-in to EVs only. A separate fare matrix for EVs would need to be prepared.
6.1.3 Government EV Procurement Programme
As discussed in Chapter 2, the government purchases more than 12,000 vehicles annually.
It is therefore recommended that at least 10% of government vehicle procurement be
exclusively allotted to EVs initially, with gradual increases in share over-time.
6.1.4 Introduce EV fringe benefits

LY
N
The proposed fringe benefits for EV use include, though not limited to:
O
- Toll-fee exemption
- Exemption from the number coding scheme
- EV-only roadside parking slots in commercial centres and CBDs
T
- Annual vehicle registration fee exemption

AF
- 50% reduction on government transaction fees, e.g. census documents, registration

certificate, driver’s license renewal
Partnerships with commercial entities could further enable additional benefits, e.g. discounts,
R
free products or services.

D
6.2 EV Cost Reduction

6.2.1 Importation tariff, excise tax, and selective tax exemption
The removal of importation tariffs and excise taxes for PHEVs, assuming exemption also for
BEVs, is expected to reduce average EV cost multipliers (Table 6-4).
Table 6-4. EV cost multiplier, after tax incentives are applied

Vehicle Variant BEV PHEV
Mini-compact sedan 1.91 1.46
Subcompact sedan 1.92 1.46
Compact sedan 1.81 1.38
Full-size sedan 1.48 1.13
MPV 1.81 1.38
204
Pick-up 1.81 1.38
Crossover / compact SUV 1.56 1.19
Mid-size SUV 1.66 1.27
Full-size SUV 1.44 1.10
Van 1.61 1.23
With the application of tax incentives, selected PHEV models would be cheaper compared to
ICEV units, particularly models imported from MFN countries. This is particularly evident with
larger variants, where excise tax rates are generally higher, which translates to higher
foreign exchange savings from oil imports, higher energy security risk reductions, and lower
health risks. Moreover, the issue of EV cost and affordability would be directly addressed.
Corresponding increases in BEV demand creates a larger market for charging facilities.
Without tax incentives, BEVs and PHEVs pose negative social impacts compared to ICEVs.
However, the EV demand generated is expected to increase the attractiveness of EV and
parts production, which would significantly benefit the country. To note, ASEAN countries
are intensively competing to attract EV investments. Creating the required local demand
LY
would therefore be critical to attract EV locators.
Selective VAT exemption is also recommended for mandated corporate and public transport
N
fleet adoptions, as discussed in the previous section. Reducing VAT levied on all other EV
O
purchases are also expected to boost adoption. This could be made available until 2025 to
prime up EV purchases.
T
6.2.2 EV-based Eco-PUV Programme

AF
As indicated in Chapter 2, DTI is in the process of crafting an Eco-PUV programme directed

at coupling industry development and the DOTr-led PUV modernisation programme in the
R
country. Assuming that the Eco-PUV programme would be patterned after the
Comprehensive Automotive Resurgence Strategy (CARS) programme, additional subsidy is
D
expected for qualified, locally-produced PUVs, which would supplement the PHP80,000.00
provided by the DOTr.
The programme is expected to require a minimum share of locally-made content. It is

proposed that batteries, controllers, traction motors, battery management systems, and on-
board chargers are excluded from the computation of the local content and instead,
additional incentives would be provided for each component if locally-sourced. Table 6-5
outlines the recommended basis for defining the amount of subsidy for each component.
205
Table 6-5. Basis of component subsidy
Component Basis
Battery1 per kWh capacity
Traction motor per kW vehicle peak power
Motor controller per kW vehicle peak power
Battery management system per kW vehicle peak power
On-board charger per kW vehicle peak power
Note: 1excluding Lead Acid and VRLA
The subsidy amount per unit basis of each component could be computed based on the
economic value added9 and the average cost of each component within the range normally
used in e-jeepneys. When combined with appropriate demand generation schemes, this
intervention is expected to justify investments in key EV components, thereby significantly
reducing the local supply chain gaps. Introducing a similar programme for e-tricycles may
also be pursued.
6.3 Charging Infrastructure Development

LY
N
6.3.1 EV Charging Point Masterplan and Regulations
An EV Charging Infrastructure Development Masterplan is required to guide the

O
establishment of charging points in strategic areas. Adoption is recommended by phases:
T
- Phase 1: Creation and implementation of a government-led, multi-sectoral, highly

coordinated, and cost-shared initiative to establish charging points in defined ‘EV
AF
Lead Areas’ (Table 6-6). Selection of the recommended EV Lead Areas was based
on the potential market, reliability of power supply, manageability, and value-added
potential in the area.
R
Table 6-6. Recommended EV charging infrastructure in lead areas

D
Area Recommendations
The three regions combined accounts for a major
part of the national GDP and EV potential market.
Focusing EV adoption and infrastructure
development in the area would accelerate EV
adoption and awareness and would significantly
Region 3 – NCR – Region 4A
influence preference for EVs in other areas.
Moreover, the regions are connected and involves

seamless travel, thus providing a strong practical
sense to jointly focus on the regions.
The area has a strong head-start in the adoption
Boracay of EVs. Developing charging infrastructure would
further boost EV adoption in the area.
9
May be derived from the PSA Input-Output Table
206
The multi-stakeholder initiative could include the government, LGUs, EV suppliers,
existing EV charging service providers, EVAP, tollway operators, interested
commercial establishments, and vehicle fleets.
- Phase 2: Introduction of incentives for installing charging points
- Phase 3: Introduction of EV charging point regulations in local building codes for

initial implementation in EV Lead Areas only. An initial set of minimum requirements
on charging point availability be introduced (Table 6-7) to initiate discussions.
Recommendations are set to the minimum requirement and it is assumed that market
forces would take over in enabling the installation of more stations in the future.
Table 6-7. Recommended charging system regulations

Facility Type
Facility Remarks
New Old
- 4.5% of the LY
- 4.5% of the
- Best-case
scenario of the
N
parking space simulation
parking space
- Residential, would be required indicates that
O
would be
condominium to have Level 1 privately-owned
required to
buildings charging EVs would
have
T
- Commercial provisions within comprise

provisions for
(office) buildings 2 years of the approximately
AF
Level 1
introduction of the 4.5% of the
charging
regulation vehicle stock by
2030
R
- Communal
- 3% of the parking - Best-case
D
buildings and
- 3% of the space would be scenario of the
facilities (e.g.
parking space required to have simulation
hospitals,
would be Level 1 charging indicates that
government
required to provisions within privately-owned
buildings,
have Level 1 2 years from the EVs would
museum, parks,
charging introduction of the comprise
amusement parks,
provisions regulation approximately
sports and
4.5% of the
entertainment
- 1% of the - 1% of the parking vehicle stock by
areas, transport
parking space space would be 2030
terminals),
would be required to have - A larger share for
excluding
required to Level 2 charging Level 1 charging
educational
have Level 2 provisions within provisions was
institutions
charging 2 years from the proposed due to
- Commercial (e.g.
provisions introduction of the cost
shopping malls,
regulation considerations
food
207
establishments)
facilities
- Independent pay-
parking areas
- Two fast charging
- Two fast points would be - The 25-km
charging points required for every charging interval
- Tolled highways would be 25-kms, within 1 in highways is
required for year from the widely adopted
every 25-kms introduction of the internationally
regulation
- Phase 4: Expansion of the regulatory coverage to a wider area
6.3.2 Charging Infrastructure Development Incentives Programme
Regulations detailed in section 6.3.1 requires mandated provisions of charging points.
LY
Incentives detailed in Table 6-8 are designed to share the installation costs between
government and affected entities and to lessen the risk for commercial installations.
N
Table 6-8. Recommended charging infrastructure incentives
O
Nature of Operation Incentives Remarks
Level 1 chargers are affordable,
T
thus, no additional subsidy

AF
except for VAT exemption is

Level 2 charging recommended.
R
- 50% of investment is Higher-level charging points in

deductible to corporate tax workplaces are recommended to
D
Workplace charging
- Additional 25% of investment be highly subsidized to cover for
points
is deductible for locally- the higher investment cost and
manufactured chargers higher utilization uncertainty.
- Charging equipment would be
VAT-exempt The employer may only charge
for capital cost recovery in
addition to interests based on
prevailing bank loan rates
Level 2 and fast chargers
Commercial public
charging points (e.g.
- Corporate tax holiday for 5
pay parking areas,
yeas Subsidy could be sourced from
commercial buildings,
- 25% of investment subsidy for the road tax
fuel stations, roadside
Level 2 locally-manufactured
parking, vehicle
chargers
dealerships)
- 15% of investment subsidy for
208
locally-manufactured fast
chargers
Level 2 and fast chargers
Subsidy is lower compared to
- 15% of investment is workplace charging points and
Corporate fleet
deductible to corporate tax commercial fast chargers since
charging points
- Additional 25% of investment charging is intended on a more
is deductible for locally- regular basis
manufactured chargers
100% of the amount investment
could be recovered from toll fee
Tollways increases, which would be
spread throughout a predefined
period
Alternatively, a non-stock, non-profit foundation could be established to accept corporate

donations for the installation of Level 1 and Level 2 charging points in workplaces and
LY
commercial buildings. Under the proposed arrangement, instead of direct installations in
facilities, facility owners donate to the envisaged foundation, which would be responsible for
purchasing, installing, and operating the charging points of the donor building. Moreover, the
N
amount transferred, the equipment and installation costs could be declared as part of the
company environmental corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiative passed over to the
O
foundation, thereby allowing corporate tax deductions. Further legal evaluation of this
proposed action is recommended.
T
AF
Moreover, additional incentives are recommended:
- VAT exemption for EV charging equipment

- Importation tariff exemption for fast chargers beyond 20 kW
R
- Application of industrial power rates for EV charging points

D
The removal of all taxes levied on EV charging equipment is not expected to result in
revenue losses since no collections are expected as EVs have not been locally adopted.
Tariffs are recommended to be removed only in higher-level charging units as lower-capacity
fast chargers are already locally-produced.
6.3.3 Formulation of Charging Power Rates Rules and Special Charging Power Rates
Under the proposed SB No. 2137, the Department of Energy and Energy Regulatory
Commission would formulate and issue guidelines on charging and rate-setting regulations.
It is important that the following key principles on EV charging rates be addressed:
- Who are allowed to operate charging services?

- What are the charging service franchising requirements, rules, and processes?
- How will EV charging rates be determined?
209
Based on discussions in Chapter 1, majority of the charging infrastructure development
programme globally are initially either fully or partially state-funded due to the high patronage
uncertainty. Reducing power rates levied would significantly help in managing business
risks. Special power rates could therefore be introduced:
- Exemption of charging power rates from subsidy shares (i.e. lifetime rate, senior
citizen, universal charge, and fit-all), which could reduce rates to more than PHP0.70
- Provide the option of adopting industrial power rates to charging facilities regardless
of business nature
6.3.4 Establish EV charging point installation standards, regulations, and local

Processing of permits has been a major bottleneck in the installation of charging points due
to the lack of installation standards and LGU-permitting process. Installation standards would
need to be developed and farmed out to LGUs for eventual integration to the Local Building
Code.
LY
For private vehicle purchases, rules requiring an electrical system assessment and
necessary technical recommendations on the intended charging point location would need to
be specified.
N
O
6.3.5 Standard Charging Protocols
T
While locking-in charging standards to a specific protocol would streamline infrastructure

development and cost, local roll-out of vehicle types could be limited. To note, the local
AF
market is extremely small for vehicle manufacturers to customize models that would cater to
the adopted charging standard. Moreover, charging standards globally are far from stable
and are continuously evolving, including the merger of the GBT and CHADEMO. It is
R
therefore recommended that market forces would define the direction for charging standards
D
while closely monitoring decisions made at the ASEAN level on the matter.
6.4 Industry Development Program

6.4.1 Rationalisation of fiscal incentives for EV assembly and parts production
As discussed in Chapter 1, Thailand is capable of attracting key investments in EV vehicle

production due to the more superior industry position coupled with an attractive industry
incentive package. Drawing from the Thailand model, the country could initially explore
attracting EV investments to domestically popular variants. To complement current laws and
programmes, the following industry support could be considered:
- EV-focused Eco-PUV programme
- Additional subsidy for each major locally-sourced component, with the amount
varying either with battery capacity or power rating (Table 6-5)
- Include EV and parts production in the Investment Priority Plan
210
6.4.2 Local EV Industry Fund
As discussed in Chapter 2, funding limitations is a major barrier in the expansion of local

production capacity. While the government provides soft loans to support vehicle acquisition,
as in the case of modern jeepneys, bank loans normally require long processing times,
which is a major constraint in ramping up local EV production. Setting up a fund to provide
the manufacturing industry soft loans for EV continuous production needs to be explored.
DTI could explore the possibility of tapping international climate funds, e.g. Green Climate
Fund, to support the initiative.
6.4.3 Harmonise vehicle standards classification
The absence of proper online registration forms and vehicle classifications have acted as
barriers to EV registrations. Currently, the LTO registers EVs as slow-moving vehicles, i.e. e-
jeepneys, and special-use vehicles, i.e. government EVs, company car EVs. Electric two-
wheelers and three-wheelers are registered as light EVs. Inconsistencies between vehicle
classification systems followed by the LTO, Bureau of Customs, and the Bureau of Product
Standards has further confused a streamlined process, which would need to be clearly
LY
ironed out.
Moreover, EV registration forms currently use forms designed for ICEVs, with selected fields
N
filled out based on the closest option, i.e. number of cylinders = 1, vehicle type and class.
O
Rectification would need to be carried out to allow more accurate, EV-specific information.
Immediate revisions are needed for the information to be integrated into the new IT and
database system of the LTO.
T
AF
6.4.4 EV-specific tariff code setting
EVs are currently covered under the ‘others’ category of the tariff code for vehicles. A
R
separate code would need to be defined specific for EVs to avoid confusion and facilitate
ease in the provision of special tariff privileges.
D
6.4.5 Rationalised EV and component standards and regulations
Standards on EVs and parts are set to secure the safety and investment of users. Technical
requirements however, would need to adequately consider the stage of adoption, capability
for compliance, and local availability and cost of testing and verification processes.
Recommendations are thus provided:
- Review the approved standards relative to the local capacity for testing and assess
the feasibility of setting up the required local testing facility or otherwise, conducting
testing in a different country. Provisions that could not be implemented need to be
removed or modified
- Revisit the status of available standards, presented in Chapter 2, and adopt the
framework provided to identify gaps in standard development
- Conduct an in-depth review of vehicle operations, i.e. tricycle and jeepneys, and the
operating environment to guide the necessary modifications in EV standards, which
211
could be introduced as a DOTr-Department Order under the PUV Modernisation
Programme (i.e. for jeepneys) and as a LGU regulation for tricycles. This intervention
would support local EVs in adhering to the PNS standards
- Considering the lack of testing facilities, a phased implementation of approved
standards is needed in parallel with a testing facility development programme
- Introduce vehicle energy economy labelling as part of the standards and regulations
for EVs sold in the country
In addition, LTO is revising regulations on licensing, registration, and restrictions to govern

light EVs. The use of EVs in the logistics and delivery industry is a major venue for EV
diffusion. Proper regulations to allow targeted EV diffusion would be needed.
6.4.6 Complementing Industry Development
Vehicle software component and batteries account for a significant share of future vehicle
cost. Considering the relevant competitive advantages of the country, roadmaps would need
to be formulated in order to maximise the potential benefits.
Transport and Auto-Informatics Roadmap

LY
In contrast to manufacturing, the software industry does not involve supply chain issues. The
N
software industry plays a significant role in the development of mobility solutions, which
O
could eventually be capitalized on to penetrate the global market. Potential benefits of
coupling transport and software industries go beyond the vehicles. Development of an
industry strategy on transport and auto-informatics is recommended and would need to
T
focus on:
AF
- Raising the level of locally-produced EVs through added intelligence to enhance

efficiency, functionality, and safety
R
- Developing and implementing locally-grounded smart mobility concepts

- Nurturing formation and competitiveness of local smart transport and auto-software
D
development companies
- Transforming the country as a leading outsourcing destination in transport and auto-
informatics system
EV Battery Manufacturing Roadmap
The vast reserves of nickel and cobalt in the country could be leveraged to attract
investments in battery production. Indonesia demonstrated that local reserves could be a
strong tool in jumpstarting the industry. Coupling reserves with local EV demand, i.e. from e-
jeepneys and e-tricycles, is expected to provide a significantly strong proposition in local
battery production. In addition to battery installation in new vehicles, recurring requirements
could be expected every 5 years, at the maximum, provided continuous demand.
Penetrating the OEM and international market could eventually aid the growth of local plants.
However, key critical issues need to be handed for the initiative to prosper. A roadmap
strongly involving the government is needed to:
- Clarify and address mining regulatory issues
212
- Develop competitive corporate incentive package
- Ensure local market through the regulations and incentives discussed
- Consider government co-investment, if needed
6.4.7 Human Resource Development
Chapter 2 provided occupational positions required by the EV industry. It is recommended

that EVAP works with Technical Education Skills Development Authority (TESDA),
Commission on Higher Education (CHED), and Safety Organization of the Philippines, Inc.
(SOPI) to develop and introduce the necessary capacity building interventions (indicated in
Table 2-21). The development and introduction of certification programmes (Table 6-9) are
recommended to ensure workforce and public safety.
Table 6-9. Recommended industry positions subject to testing certification
Potential Certifying
Position
Agency
EV Charging Technician TESDA
LY
EV Service Technician TESDA
EV Testing Specialist TESDA
N
EV Battery Technician TESDA
EV Charging Facility Safety Officer SOPI
O
EV Battery Manufacturing, Assembly, Installation Safety Officer SOPI
EV Battery Engineer EVAP
T
AF
6.4.8 Research and Development
The growth and competitiveness of the local EV and related industries could be strongly
R
accelerated by a responsive and effective R&D programme. The R&D programme would
D
need to proactively be informed of current EV and mobility technologies and market

development globally and would need to be capable of assessing local industry needs.
Moreover, the R&D programme would need to set targets guiding technology development
investments of the government and private sector.
Among others, a comprehensive understanding of features, performance, and cost

benchmarks of EVs, and systems and components is needed to determine strategic EV and
parts performance and cost R&D targets to ensure local competitiveness. Government
support may be provided via bidding out R&D contracts and/or providing grants for target
delivery. Contracts and/or grants would require cooperation between industry and R&D
institutions, which is a departure from the common practice of calling for R&D grant
proposals based on general R&D areas. While the current practice could be maintained as it
caters to highly innovative ideas, the frequency of practice could be more limited.
Government would also be informed of global developments and local needs and would
thus, have a more informed position to evaluate unsolicited proposals under the proposed
arrangement.
213
6.4.9 IEC and Demonstration
Perceived technology and economic uncertainties of EVs need to be adequately managed

and addressed in order to realise a successful EV diffusion programme locally. The IEC
programme would need to be closely developed with the media industry for wider coverage.
Forums and orientation programmes need to be organized with key sectors, including:
- National and LGUs

- Finance and insurance industry
- Fleet companies and companies with large fleets (Table 6-8)
- Public transport sector
Carefully planned and implemented demonstration programmes would be required involving

a selected group of EV champions from sectors involved prior to the eventual introduction of
regulations recommended. The pilot phase would likely need to be heavily subsidized both
by the government and EV industry to manage initial uncertainties.
6.5 Programme Implementation

LY
N
The programme framework provided (Figure 6-1) could be used to define the roles and
O
responsibilities of various agencies on the EV programme of the country. Agencies to lead
the corresponding programme pillars are recommended:
T
- DOTr: Demand Generation

AF
- DOE: Charging Infrastructure Development

- DTI, in coordination with DOF, DENR, and TESDA: Industry Development and EV
Cost Reduction
R
D
It is important that all pillars are mobilized jointly. Legislation clearly defining agency roles
described would need to be introduced to ensure coordinated implementation of each
component. Figure 6-2 provides a proposed phasing plan for the recommended strategies.
Near Term Mid-Term Long-Term

Recommendations
(2020 – 2023) (2024-2027) (2028-onwards)
EV regulations for
EV Lead Cities and National
public transport
DEMAND GENERATION
Mandated Implementation
adoption
EV regulations for
EV Lead Cities and EV Lead Cities National
corporate fleet
Voluntary and Mandated Implementation
adoption
Government EV
National
Procurement
Implementation
Programme
EV incentives for National
corporate fleets Implementation
214
National
EV Fringe Benefits
Implementation
CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT COST REDUCTION
Importation Tariff and
National
Excise Tax
Implementation
Exemptions
EV-focused Eco-PUV National

Programme Implementation
EV Charging
Infrastructure EV Lead Cities and EV Lead Cities National
Masterplan and Voluntary and Mandated Implementation
Regulations
EV Charging
Infrastructure National
Development and Implementation
Incentive Programme
LY
Formulation of
Charging Rate-Setting National
Rules and Special Implementation
N
Power Rates
O
Establishment of
charging points,
National
installation standards,
T
Implementation
regulations, and local
AF
Rationalization of the
electric vehicle
R
National
assembly and parts
Implementation
D
production fiscal
incentives
Program
INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT
EV Local Industry Full

development and
Fund Implementation
initial implementation
Harmonisation of
vehicle standards National
classification for Implementation
vehicle registration
EV-specific Tariff National
Code Implementation
Rationalization of EV
Review of standards,
and components Expanded Expanded
modifications, and
standards and Testing 1 Testing 2
limited testing
regulations
Complementing Implementation Implementation
Preparatory Phase
Industry Development Phase 1 Phase 2
215
Training / curricular
program, certification
Human Resource program and Full
Development Program regulations Implementation
development and
testing
EV Industry R&D
Research and needs-mapping and Full
Development Program initial phase Implementation
implementation
Figure 6-2. Proposed phasing strategy
LY
N
O
T
AF
R
D
216
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Philippine Electric Vehicle Policy Analysis Report - Draft Report

Technical Report · July 2019

J.B. Manuel M. Biona

Cost and Benefit Analysis of Alternative Jeepney Technologies View project

The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

undying support extended to the project.

Over-all Project Lead

University of the Philippines

Carlo Joshua Lauengco

Billy Joel Esquivel

James Carl Satorre, ME

Ateneo Innovation Center, Ateneo De Manila University

Technological University of the Philippines

TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................... iv

2.1 Local Electric Vehicle Stock and Models Available ............................................ 98

2.4.1 Vehicle Design and Development ................................................................... 112

2.4.3 Systems and Modules ..................................................................................... 115

5.2.7 Weighted Cost and Benefit Analysis ........................................................... 189

6 Recommendations ....................................................................................................... 197

6.1.1 Corporate EV Fleet Programme ................................................................... 202

6.1.2 Introduce minimum EV share in public transport modes ......................... 203

Figure 1-6 China EV population, 2014-2018 ........................................................................... 24

Figure 1-11 BEV City driving energy economy range ............................................................. 33

Figure 4-3. Additional reserve requirement for EV charging................................................. 156

Figure 6-1. Proposed EV programme framework ................................................................. 202

Table 1-1. Electric vehicle stock in ASEAN ............................................................................. 25

Table 2-20. Charging system suppliers in the Philippines .................................................... 125

Table 2-23. Battery-related EV standards in the Philippines ................................................ 133

Table 3-1. Scenario details .................................................................................................... 143

2. The share of BEVs relative to PHEVs is increasing.

3. Significant strides in EV adoption have been realised in several ASEAN countries.

7. In contrast to ICEVs, EV drives could be more efficient in slow-moving conditions, which

State and Technology Development of EV Batteries

State and Developments on Charging Systems

Global EV Policies, Incentives, and Regulations

17. Key strategies drawn from global EV diffusion experiences include:

EV Supply Chain and Industry Trends

Battery Raw Material Supply Chain

Local EV stock and Models Available

33. Assumed to be completely imported from China, 27 electric two-wheelers, 24 electric

Electric Vehicle Performance (Range and Energy Economy) and Cost

EV-Related Government Initiatives

Vehicle Systems Systems Marketing Vehicle

However, capability of the local industry to tap on transmission systems, automotive

limited. Based on industry interviews, installations of 200 stations is expected.

points is on a made-to-order basis.

Human Resource Requirement

54. Currently, filling up management, engineering, and technician positions in the

regulations on wireless charging and vehicles as electricity supply have to be defined.

61. Minimum thresholds on standards pertaining to energy economy, vehicle performance,

Electric Vehicle Demand Projections

Commercial and Government Vehicles

68. Government-mandated EV adoption rates were recommended for different market

segments. For commercial vehicles, annual 1% increases in adoption rate until 5% by

Best-Case EV Adoption Projection

EV Charging Impacts to the Power Grid

- DOE: Charging Infrastructure Development

83. For demand generation interventions, this report specified:

- Recommended EV-mandated shares including specified supporting regulations

84. For EV cost reduction interventions, this report recommended:

86. For industry development, this report recommended:

- Crafting and implementation of a human resource development strategy for the