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Let’s say that a company wanted to do market research about wine club memberships.
A random sample of adult Vancouverites was surveyed. The survey results show that
out of 74 female respondents, 48 were members of a wine club. Out of 109 male
respondents, 66 were members of a wine club. Do the survey results provide evidence
that the men and women in Vancouver have differing tendencies to belong to wine clubs
at a 5% significance level?
The first step should be familiar: check that the two binomial sample distributions can be
approximated with the standard normal distribution. That way, we know the sampling
distribution of the difference ( ̂ ̂ is also approximately normally distributed. Since
we don’t have any information about the true population proportions, p1 and p2, we have
to use the sample estimates to check our conditions:
There are two possible cases for creating a null hypothesis. We are either checking
whether the proportions in both populations are the same (i.e., the difference between
the proportions is zero), or we are checking to see whether one proportion is a particular
fixed number higher than the other.
In the first case, the null hypothesis is H0: p1 − p2 = 0. This is a special case where we
pool the data from the two samples to get a single estimate of the population
proportion:
̂
1 ̂
x1 and x2 are the number of successes in samples 1 and 2, and n1 and n2 are the total
number of individuals in samples 1 and 2. We pool the data because we are assuming
Note for (p1 – p2), we always plug in the number from the null hypothesis.
The second case is when the null hypothesis is equal to a non-zero number. In this
case, we do not pool the data. The standard error is calculated as below:
̂ ̂
After calculating the z-score, compare to z(α) or z(α/2) to make the decision to reject or
fail to reject the null hypothesis. Alternately find the p-value of the z-score and compare
to α to make the decision.
The two binomial sampling distributions can be approximated with standard normal
distributions. Now we can calculate the single estimate of the population proportion, the
standard error and z-score.
48 66
̂ 0.6230
74 109
1 ̂ 1 0.6320 0.3770
The z-score:
̂ ̂ 0.6486 0.6055 0
0.59
0.0730
If we compare the z-score to z(α/2) = 1.96, our z-score is less than z(α/2), so we fail to
reject the null hypothesis.
Alternately compare the p-value of 0.5552 to α of 0.05: since our p-value > α, we fail to
reject the null hypothesis. We conclude that there is insufficient evidence that men and
women have differing tendencies to belong to wine clubs.
Exercises
3. A quality control inspector wants to test whether the proportion of cans of tomato
paste meeting the required sugar content from two different manufacturers is
equal. A sample of 250 cans from Manufacturer A revealed 237 cans met the
required sugar content. From a sample of 234 cans from Manufacturer B, 209
met the required sugar content. At the 10% significance level, is there any
evidence of a difference in the proportion of cans that meet the required sugar
content from Manufacturers A and B?
Solutions
3. H0: p1 – p2 = 0 H1: p1 – p2 ≠ 0
p1 is Manufacturer A’s proportion and p2 is Manufacturer B’s proportion. Data will
pooled. Conditions for approximating binomial distribution with standard normal
distribution are met.
̂ 0.9215, 0.0785
std error = 0.0245
z-score = 2.24, p-value = 0.0125 → multiply p-value by 2: 0.0250
z(α/2) = 1.645
Since the p-value is less than α, or alternately since z-score is greater than z(α/2),
we reject the null hypothesis. There is sufficient evidence to support that the
proportion of cans from Manufacturer A that meet the required sugar content is
different than the proportion of cans from Manufacturer B that meet the required
sugar content.