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IOGP-Report 434-01 - Process Release Frequencies - NUEVO
IOGP-Report 434-01 - Process Release Frequencies - NUEVO
434-01 2019
responsible equipment
Acknowledgements
Safety Committee
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Revision history
Contents
Abbreviations 5
6. References 58
6.1 References for Sections 2 to 4 58
6.2 References for other data sources 59
4
Process Release Frequencies
Abbreviations
HC Hydrocarbon
5
Process Release Frequencies
1.1 Equipment
This datasheet presents (Section 2) frequencies of releases from the following process
equipment types. They are intended to be applied to process equipment on the topsides of
offshore installations and on onshore facilities handling hydrocarbons but are not restricted
to releases of hydrocarbons.
1) Steel process pipes 13) Heat exchangers: Plate
2) Flanged Joints 14) Heat exchangers: Air-cooled
3) Manual valves 15) Filters
4) Actuated valves 16) Pig traps (launchers/receivers)
5) Instrument connections 17) Flexible Pipes
6) Process (pressure) vessels 18) Pressure Vessels (Other)
7) Pumps: Centrifugal 19) Degassers
8) Pumps: Reciprocating 20) Expanders
9) Compressors: Centrifugal 21) Xmas Trees
10) Compressors: Reciprocating 22) Turbines
11) Heat exchangers: Shell & Tube, shell 23) Pipeline ESVDs
side HC
24) SSIV Assemblies
12) Heat exchangers: Shell & Tube, tube
side HC
The precise definition of each equipment type is given with the data in Section 2.
Besides the equipment defined in the above list, the equipment types listed in Table 1-1 are
also covered by the data given in Section 2.
Gaskets 2
6
Process Release Frequencies
In this revision, all sets of data are given as a single category. This is the combination
of the “full releases” and “limited releases” as defined above. This excludes “Zero
pressure releases” which would have negligible consequences relative to releases at the
normal system pressure. Consideration of releases of this type would require separate
consequence methodology which is not normally used in Quantitative Risk Assessments.
The full release and limited release categories have been combined in this document
because it is difficult in practice to draw a clear boundary between the two cases given
the levels of uncertainty of the input parameters used in making such a judgement. This
also makes it difficult to judge how limited releases should be treated in determining their
consequences. The use of a single category to model the release of the available inventory
is conservative and simplifies the analysis.
The values presented in the previous document were based on an analysis of the UK HSE’s
Hydrocarbon Release Database (HCRD) from its inception in October 1992 until March
2006. The values in this revision are based on data up until December 2015. The number
of incidents recorded per year in the database has been steadily decreasing and it may be
considered appropriate to base the frequency on more recent data on the assumption that
this is more representative of what will occur in the future. For this reason, two sets of data
are presented for each equipment type:
• Recommended frequencies based on the frequency of data in the last 10 years (2006
– 2015 inclusive)1
• For comparison purposes, e.g., sensitivity analysis, frequencies based on the whole
period (1992-2015) of the data base (23¼ years).
In both cases the hole size distribution based on the whole period of the database is used.
The analysis also takes into account improved estimates of the amount of process
equipment in service over this period and a better understanding of those incidents which
could be regarded as being of the type assessed in QRAs and compatible with the available
population data. More details are provided in section 4.1.2.
1 In cases where less than 10 incidents have been recorded in the 10 year period a modified approach is taken as discussed in Section 4.1.2.
7
Process Release Frequencies
Although the datasheets are based on experience from offshore installation is the UKCS, it
may be applied in other locations and also for onshore installations. This is because of the
absence of comparable datasets based on the experience for those types of installations.
Where these data are applied, a check should be made on whether the overall leak
frequency is broadly comparable with the recorded experience for that installation or group
of similar installations. Where this is found not to be the case, a suitable scaling factor
should be applied. More robust justification is required for applying factors which reduce
the calculated leak frequency than are required for increasing it.
8
Process Release Frequencies
For each equipment type, two tables are presented. The first are the recommended values
based on experience in the period 2006-2015 inclusive with the exception that if there have been
less than 10 incidents within that time, the time period is extended backwards until 10 relevant
incidents are available. These data are labelled as “2006-2015” for consistency even when there
has been a need to base them on a longer period. In some cases, such as reciprocating
pumps and air-cooled heat exchangers, there are less than 10 incidents in the database.
The second table provides the frequencies based on the whole period of the database. For
reciprocating pumps and air-cooled heat exchangers these would be the same as the first
table so only one table is presented. These second tables may be used if an estimate based
on a larger data set is required. With a few exceptions, these will provide higher estimates.
In many cases there are a significant differences.
Frequency exceedance plots are provided for “2006 – 2015” data from which frequencies for
other size ranges may be obtained.
9
Process Release Frequencies
With the exception of the highest range, the historic probabilistic distribution and modelled
correlations of hole sizes is heavily weighted towards the lower end of the range, i.e. most
leaks will be smaller than the arithmetic mean. An examination of average consequence, in
terms of fatalities, of holes over a given range was found to be best represented by a hole
size which was close to the geometric mean for that range [1]. Hence, the geometric mean
approach is recommended for use in most risk analyses. Use of the other approaches will
generally give conservative estimates of the risk. There may be particular cases where
the consequences are sensitive to a small change in the hole size, e.g., escalation and
associated increased fatalities occur for hole sizes above a certain critical value, but this
effect will normally be small in the context of a study considering multiple cases.
For the highest hole size range the representative value should be limited to the size of
the equipment or the largest connecting pipe as appropriate. In many cases the scenario
being modelled will be for a release from a section of the process equipment involving
many types and sizes of equipment so the representative hole size should be limited to the
largest of these.
Note that full bore ruptures in the context of a major piece of equipment should refer to the
size of the largest connecting pipe.
Figure 2-1 shows the proportion of holes within 5% bands of ratio of hole size to equipment
size for incidents in the HCRD where both dimensions are available. This indicates that
6.6% of incidents fall within the 95% - 100% band and be considered as ruptures whereas
the proportion in bands below this top band, but above half the equipment size, are much
smaller. The “rupture” category accounts for 62% of all incidents where the hole diameter
is greater than 50% of the equipment diameter. This suggests that, irrespective of the
approach used for lower hole size bands, that the largest category should use the full bore
release for the equipment concerned.
0.7
0.6
0.5
Portion In Range
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.00 - 0.05
0.05 - 0.10
0.10 - 0.15
0.15 - 0.20
0.20 - 0.25
0.25 - 0.30
0.30 - 0.35
0.35 - 0.40
0.40 - 0.45
0.45 - 0.50
0.50 - 0.55
0.55 - 0.60
0.60 - 0.65
0.65 - 0.70
0.70 - 0.75
0.75 - 0.80
0.80 - 0.85
0.85 - 0.90
0.90 - 0.95
0.95 - 1.00
Figure 2-1: Proportion of Holes Falling Within 5% Bands of Hole Size to Equipment Size Ratio2
2 Analysis based on incidents which are “QRA significant” (as discussed in Section 4.1.2) and compatible with the available population
data and for which hole size and equipment diameter is available.
10
Process Release Frequencies
In the following tables it should be noted that values are given for the 50 mm – 150 mm range
for equipment of nominal size 2”. Full bore ruptures for equipment of this size will generally
be taken as having a diameter of 2” (50.8 mm) regardless of the fact that the internal diameter
will vary depending on the wall thickness. Hence, this frequency applies to diameters which will
necessarily be close to the lower limit of the range. Similarly, for equipment of 6” nominal size, the
> 150 mm range effectively applies to full bore ruptures and generally taken as being 152.4 mm.
2.2 Datasheets
The following data sheets present leak frequency data in a number of forms for the process
equipment types listed in section 1.1.
General Equation: The mathematical equation for the frequency exceeding a hole size, d,
is given. In the case of equipment types where the parameters are a function of equipment
size, these are presented in a table from which the values appropriate to a given equipment
size can be interpolated.
Tabulation: The frequency per year for leaks within given hole size ranges and for a series
of equipment sizes are given.
Graphical representation: Curves giving the frequency of exceeding a given hole size are
presented for a variety of equipment sizes. This is provided for frequencies based on 2006 –
2015 data only unless the analysis had to be based on the full period.
11
Process Release Frequencies
Steel Pipework per metre year by pipe diameter (based on 2006-2015 data)
General equation F(d) = Cdm + B , 1 mm < d ≤ D
F(d) = 0 , d>D
Where the parameters C, m and B are dependent on the equipment size (D) as given in by
interpolation from the following table
Equipment Diameter (mm)
B 0 0 6.69 x 10-8
Values greater than 508 mm use the same value as for 508 mm
Tabulation
HOLE DIA 2" DIA 6” DIA 12” DIA 18” DIA 24” DIA 36” DIA
RANGE (mm) (50 mm) (150 mm) (300 mm) (450 mm) (600 mm) (900 mm)
1 to 3 1.5E-05 9.5E-06 8.6E-06 8.1E-06 7.7E-06 7.7E-06
3 to 10 6.4E-06 3.9E-06 4.2E-06 4.8E-06 4.9E-06 4.9E-06
10 to 50 2.8E-06 1.6E-06 2.1E-06 3.0E-06 3.3E-06 3.3E-06
50 to 150 1.0E-06 3.2E-07 5.2E-07 9.7E-07 1.2E-06 1.2E-06
>150 --- 2.0E-07 4.6E-07 1.3E-06 1.7E-06 1.7E-06
TOTAL 2.5E-05 1.6E-05 1.6E-05 1.8E-05 1.9E-05 1.9E-05
Graphical Representation
12
Process Release Frequencies
B 0 0 7.12 x 10-8
Values greater than 508 mm use the same value as for 508 mm
Tabulation
HOLE DIA 2" DIA 6” DIA 12” DIA 18” DIA 24” DIA 36” DIA
RANGE (mm) (50 mm) (150 mm) (300 mm) (450 mm) (600 mm) (900 mm)
1 to 3 3.6E-05 1.6E-05 1.1E-05 7.8E-06 6.9E-06 6.9E-06
3 to 10 1.5E-05 6.7E-06 5.1E-06 4.6E-06 4.4E-06 4.4E-06
10 to 50 6.6E-06 2.7E-06 2.5E-06 2.9E-06 3.0E-06 3.0E-06
50 to 150 2.4E-06 5.6E-07 6.4E-07 9.4E-07 1.0E-06 1.0E-06
>150 --- 3.5E-07 5.6E-07 1.2E-06 1.6E-06 1.6E-06
TOTAL 6.0E-05 2.7E-05 1.9E-05 1.7E-05 1.7E-05 1.7E-05
13
Process Release Frequencies
B -1.40 x 10 -7
4.00 x 10 -7
2.05 x 10-6
Values greater than 508 mm use the same value as for 508 mm
Tabulation
HOLE DIA 2" DIA 6” DIA 12” DIA 18” DIA 24” DIA 36” DIA
RANGE (mm) (50 mm) (150 mm) (300 mm) (450 mm) (600 mm) (900 mm)
1 to 3 4.4E-06 7.0E-06 1.3E-05 1.9E-05 2.1E-05 2.1E-05
3 to 10 2.0E-06 3.1E-06 5.0E-06 6.5E-06 6.9E-06 6.9E-06
10 to 50 9.1E-07 1.4E-06 1.9E-06 2.1E-06 2.2E-06 2.2E-06
50 to 150 3.8E-07 3.2E-07 3.7E-07 3.4E-07 3.3E-07 3.3E-07
>150 --- 5.7E-07 1.3E-06 2.0E-06 2.2E-06 2.2E-06
TOTAL 7.7E-06 1.2E-05 2.1E-05 3.0E-05 3.3E-05 3.3E-05
Graphical Representation
14
Process Release Frequencies
Values greater than 508 mm use the same value as for 508 mm
Tabulation
HOLE DIA 2" DIA 6” DIA 12” DIA 18” DIA 24” DIA 36” DIA
RANGE (mm) (50 mm) (150 mm) (300 mm) (450 mm) (600 mm) (900 mm)
1 to 3 1.3E-05 2.2E-05 3.9E-05 5.9E-05 6.6E-05 6.6E-05
3 to 10 6.0E-06 9.6E-06 1.5E-05 2.0E-05 2.1E-05 2.1E-05
10 to 50 2.8E-06 4.3E-06 5.9E-06 6.6E-06 6.6E-06 6.6E-06
50 to 150 1.2E-06 9.9E-07 1.1E-06 1.0E-06 9.9E-07 9.9E-07
>150 --- 1.7E-06 3.9E-06 6.0E-06 6.7E-06 6.7E-06
TOTAL 2.3E-05 3.8E-05 6.5E-05 9.2E-05 1.0E-04 1.0E-04
3 In the HCRD flanges are counted as flange faces. Within the analysis supporting this table, the population was divided by 2 to estimate
the number of flanged joints.
4 It should be noted that counts of flanges in the HCRD relate to flange faces as opposed to flanged joints. These tables relate to flanged
joint and the supporting analysis has assumed that the number of flanged joints in service is half the recorded number of flange faces.
15
Process Release Frequencies
Manual valve release frequencies (per valve year) by valve diameter (based on 2006-2015 data)
General equation F(d) = Cdm + B , 1 mm < d ≤ D
F(d) = 0 , d>D
Where the parameters C, m and B are dependent on the equipment size (D) as given in by
interpolation from the following table
Equipment Diameter (mm)
B 0 0 4.41 x 10-7
Values greater than 508 mm use the same value as for 508 mm
Tabulation
HOLE DIA 2" DIA 6” DIA 12” DIA 18” DIA 24” DIA 36” DIA
RANGE (mm) (50 mm) (150 mm) (300 mm) (450 mm) (600 mm) (900 mm)
1 to 3 1.5E-05 1.7E-05 2.9E-05 3.9E-05 4.1E-05 4.1E-05
3 to 10 8.0E-06 8.0E-06 1.5E-05 2.2E-05 2.5E-05 2.5E-05
10 to 50 4.6E-06 3.8E-06 8.0E-06 1.4E-05 1.6E-05 1.6E-05
50 to 150 2.7E-06 9.1E-07 2.2E-06 4.3E-06 5.3E-06 5.3E-06
>150 --- 7.2E-07 2.2E-06 5.5E-06 7.2E-06 7.2E-06
TOTAL 3.0E-05 3.1E-05 5.7E-05 8.5E-05 9.4E-05 9.4E-05
Graphical Representation
B 0 0 7.18 x 10-7
Values greater than 508 mm use the same value as for 508 mm
Tabulation
HOLE DIA 2" DIA 6” DIA 12” DIA 18” DIA 24” DIA 36” DIA
RANGE (mm) (50 mm) (150 mm) (300 mm) (450 mm) (600 mm) (900 mm)
1 to 3 2.4E-05 2.8E-05 4.8E-05 6.3E-05 6.7E-05 6.7E-05
3 to 10 1.3E-05 1.3E-05 2.4E-05 3.6E-05 4.0E-05 4.0E-05
10 to 50 7.4E-06 6.2E-06 1.3E-05 2.3E-05 2.6E-05 2.6E-05
50 to 150 4.3E-06 1.5E-06 3.5E-06 7.1E-06 8.6E-06 8.6E-06
>150 --- 1.2E-06 3.5E-06 9.0E-06 1.2E-05 1.2E-05
TOTAL 4.9E-05 5.0E-05 9.2E-05 1.4E-04 1.5E-04 1.5E-04
17
Process Release Frequencies
Actuated valve release frequencies (per valve year) by valve diameter (based on 2006-2015 data)
General equation F(d) = Cdm + B , 1 mm < d ≤ D
F(d) = 0 , d>D
Where the parameters C, m and B are dependent on the equipment size (D) as given in by
interpolation from the following table
Equipment Diameter (mm)
Values greater than 508 mm use the same value as for 508 mm
Tabulation
HOLE DIA 2" DIA 6” DIA 12” DIA 18” DIA 24” DIA 36” DIA
RANGE (mm) (50 mm) (150 mm) (300 mm) (450 mm) (600 mm) (900 mm)
1 to 3 1.4E-04 7.9E-05 7.5E-05 8.4E-05 8.6E-05 8.6E-05
3 to 10 5.8E-05 3.7E-05 3.3E-05 3.3E-05 3.3E-05 3.3E-05
10 to 50 2.3E-05 1.8E-05 1.5E-05 1.3E-05 1.3E-05 1.3E-05
50 to 150 7.3E-06 4.3E-06 3.3E-06 2.6E-06 2.4E-06 2.4E-06
>150 --- 3.6E-06 2.6E-06 1.7E-06 1.4E-06 1.4E-06
TOTAL 2.3E-04 1.4E-04 1.3E-04 1.3E-04 1.4E-04 1.4E-04
Graphical Representation
18
Process Release Frequencies
Values greater than 508 mm use the same value as for 508 mm
Tabulation
HOLE DIA 2" DIA 6” DIA 12” DIA 18” DIA 24” DIA 36” DIA
RANGE (mm) (50 mm) (150 mm) (300 mm) (450 mm) (600 mm) (900 mm)
1 to 3 2.4E-04 1.3E-04 1.3E-04 1.4E-04 1.5E-04 1.5E-04
3 to 10 9.7E-05 6.2E-05 5.5E-05 5.6E-05 5.6E-05 5.6E-05
10 to 50 3.9E-05 3.0E-05 2.5E-05 2.2E-05 2.2E-05 2.2E-05
50 to 150 1.2E-05 7.2E-06 5.6E-06 4.4E-06 4.1E-06 4.1E-06
>150 --- 6.1E-06 4.3E-06 2.8E-06 2.4E-06 2.4E-06
TOTAL 3.9E-04 2.4E-04 2.2E-04 2.3E-04 2.3E-04 2.3E-04
19
Process Release Frequencies
Graphical Representation
20
Process Release Frequencies
Pressure vessel release frequencies per vessel year (Based on 2006-2015 data)
General equation F(d) = 6.50 × 10-4d-0.66, 1 mm < d ≤ D
F(d) = 0 , d>D
Tabulation
HOLE DIA RANGE (mm) Inlets 50 to 150 mm diameter Inlets >150 mm diameter
1 to 3 3.3E-04 3.3E-04
3 to 10 1.7E-04 1.7E-04
10 to 50 9.3E-05 9.3E-05
50 to 150 4.9E-05 2.5E-05
>150 --- 2.4E-05
TOTAL 6.5E-04 6.5E-04
Graphical Representation
21
Process Release Frequencies
22
Process Release Frequencies
Centrifugal pump release frequencies per pump year (Based on 2006-2015 data)
General equation F(d) = 3.50 × 10-3 d-1.35, 1 mm < d ≤ D
F(d) = 0 , d>D
Tabulation
HOLE DIA RANGE (mm) Inlets 50 to 150 mm diameter Inlets >150 mm diameter
1 to 3 2.7E-03 2.7E-03
3 to 10 6.4E-04 6.4E-04
10 to 50 1.4E-04 1.4E-04
50 to 150 1.8E-05 1.4E-05
>150 --- 4.0E-06
TOTAL 3.5E-03 3.5E-03
Graphical Representation
Note that the largest hole size recorded for centrifugal pumps is 25.4 mm (1”). The above model extrapolates frequencies for larger hole sizes and this
gives results which are consistent with there being no recorded incident prior to 2016. There may be valid reasons related to the manufacture of centrifugal
pumps which make them less prone to large leaks than this model would suggest. Lower values may be adopted providing robust justification is given.
23
Process Release Frequencies
Reciprocating pump release frequencies per pump year (Based on 1992-2015 data)
General equation F(d) = 2.22 × 10-3 d-0.41, 1 mm < d ≤ D
F(d) = 0 , d>D
Tabulation
HOLE DIA RANGE (mm) Inlets 50 to 150 mm diameter Inlets >150 mm diameter
1 to 3 8.1E-04 8.1E-04
3 to 10 5.5E-04 5.5E-04
10 to 50 4.2E-04 4.2E-04
50 to 150 4.4E-04 1.6E-04
>150 --- 2.8E-04
TOTAL 2.2E-03 2.2E-03
Graphical Representation
24
Process Release Frequencies
Centrifugal compressor release frequencies per compressor year (Based on 2006-2015 data)
General equation F(d) = 5.80 × 10-3 d-0.80, 1 mm < d ≤ D
F(d) = 0 , d>D
Tabulation
HOLE DIA RANGE (mm) Inlets 50 to 150 mm diameter Inlets >150 mm diameter
1 to 3 3.4E-03 3.4E-03
3 to 10 1.5E-03 1.5E-03
10 to 50 6.7E-04 6.7E-04
50 to 150 2.5E-04 1.5E-04
>150 --- 1.1E-04
TOTAL 5.8E-03 5.8E-03
Graphical Representation
Note that the largest hole size recorded for centrifugal compressors is less than 50 mm. The above model extrapolates frequencies for larger hole
sizes and this gives results which are consistent with there being no recorded incident prior to 2016. There may be valid reasons related to the
manufacture of centrifugal compressors which make them less prone to large leaks than this model would suggest. Lower values may be adopted
providing robust justification is given.
25
Process Release Frequencies
Reciprocating compressor release frequencies per compressor year (Based on 2006-2015 data)
General equation F(d) = 1.19 × 10-2 d-0.78, 1 mm < d ≤ D
F(d) = 0 , d>D
Tabulation
HOLE DIA RANGE (mm) Inlets 50 to 150 mm diameter Inlets >150 mm diameter
1 to 3 6.8E-03 6.8E-03
3 to 10 3.1E-03 3.1E-03
10 to 50 1.4E-03 1.4E-03
50 to 150 5.6E-04 3.2E-04
>150 --- 2.4E-04
TOTAL 1.2E-02 1.2E-02
Graphical Representation
Note that the largest hole size recorded for reciprocating compressors is 25.5 mm. The above model extrapolates frequencies for larger hole sizes and
this gives results which are consistent with there being no recorded incident prior to 2016. There may be valid reasons related to the manufacture of
reciprocating compressors which make them less prone to large leaks than this model would suggest. Lower values may be adopted providing robust
justification is given.
26
Process Release Frequencies
Equipment Type: (11) Heat exchangers: Shell & Tube, shell side HC
Definition:
Shell and tube type heat exchangers with hydrocarbon in the shell side. The scope includes the
heat exchanger itself, but excludes all attached valves, piping, flanges, instruments and fittings
beyond the first flange. The first flange itself is also excluded.
Heat exchanger release frequencies per heat exchanger year (Based on 2006-2015 data)
General equation F(d) = 1.64 × 10-3 d-0.72, 1 mm < d ≤ D
F(d) = 0 , d>D
Tabulation
HOLE DIA RANGE (mm) Inlets 50 to 150 mm diameter Inlets >150 mm diameter
1 to 3 9.0E-04 9.0E-04
3 to 10 4.3E-04 4.3E-04
10 to 50 2.1E-04 2.1E-04
50 to 150 9.7E-05 5.3E-05
>150 --- 4.4E-05
TOTAL 1.6E-03 1.6E-03
Graphical Representation
Equipment Type: (11) Heat exchangers: Shell & Tube, shell side HC
Heat exchanger release frequencies per heat exchanger year (Based on 1992-2015 data)
General equation F(d) = 2.27 × 10-3 d-0.72, 1 mm < d ≤ D
F(d) = 0 , d>D
Tabulation
HOLE DIA RANGE (mm) Inlets 50 to 150 mm diameter Inlets >150 mm diameter
1 to 3 1.2E-03 1.2E-03
3 to 10 6.0E-04 6.0E-04
10 to 50 3.0E-04 3.0E-04
50 to 150 1.3E-04 7.4E-05
>150 --- 6.1E-05
TOTAL 2.3E-03 2.3E-03
27
Process Release Frequencies
Equipment Type: (12) Heat exchangers: Shell & Tube, tube side HC
Definition:
Shell and tube type heat exchangers with hydrocarbon in the tube side. The scope includes the
heat exchanger itself, but excludes all attached valves, piping, flanges, instruments and fittings
beyond the first flange. The first flange itself is also excluded.
Note that loss of containment in this context refers to the release of hydrocarbons to the atmosphere. i.e. internal leakage is excluded
Heat exchanger release frequencies per heat exchanger year (Based on 2006-2015 data)
General equation F(d) = 8.83 × 10-4 d-0.53, 1 mm < d ≤ D
F(d) = 0 , d>D
Tabulation
HOLE DIA RANGE (mm) Inlets 50 to 150 mm diameter Inlets >150 mm diameter
1 to 3 3.9E-04 3.9E-04
3 to 10 2.3E-04 2.3E-04
10 to 50 1.5E-04 1.5E-04
50 to 150 1.1E-04 4.9E-05
>150 --- 6.2E-05
TOTAL 8.8E-04 8.8E-04
Graphical Representation
Equipment Type: (12) Heat exchangers: Shell & Tube, tube side HC
Heat exchanger release frequencies per heat exchanger year (Based on 1992-2015 data)
General equation F(d) = 1.09 × 10-3 d-0.53, 1 mm < d ≤ D
F(d) = 0 , d>D
Tabulation
HOLE DIA RANGE (mm) Inlets 50 to 150 mm diameter Inlets >150 mm diameter
1 to 3 4.8E-04 4.8E-04
3 to 10 2.9E-04 2.9E-04
10 to 50 1.8E-04 1.8E-04
50 to 150 1.4E-04 6.1E-05
>150 --- 7.7E-05
TOTAL 1.1E-03 1.1E-03
28
Process Release Frequencies
Heat exchanger release frequencies per heat exchanger year (Based on 2006-2015 data)
General equation F(d) = 8.42 × 10-3 d-0.99, 1 mm < d ≤ D
F(d) = 0 , d>D
Tabulation
HOLE DIA RANGE (mm) Inlets 50 to 150 mm diameter Inlets >150 mm diameter
1 to 3 5.6E-03 5.6E-03
3 to 10 2.0E-03 2.0E-03
10 to 50 6.8E-04 6.8E-04
50 to 150 1.7E-04 1.1E-04
>150 --- 5.8E-05
TOTAL 8.4E-03 8.4E-03
Graphical Representation
29
Process Release Frequencies
Heat exchanger release frequencies per heat exchanger year (Based on 1992-2015 data)
General equation F(d) = 1.34 × 10-3 d-0.993, 1 mm < d ≤ D
F(d) = 0 , d>D
Tabulation
HOLE DIA RANGE (mm) Inlets 50 to 150 mm diameter Inlets >150 mm diameter
1 to 3 8.9E-04 8.9E-04
3 to 10 3.1E-04 3.1E-04
10 to 50 1.1E-04 1.1E-04
50 to 150 2.8E-05 1.8E-05
>150 --- 9.3E-06
TOTAL 1.3E-03 1.3E-03
Graphical Representation
30
Process Release Frequencies
Graphical Representation
31
Process Release Frequencies
Pig trap release frequencies per pig trap year (Based on 2006-2015 data)
General equation F(d) = 2.80 × 10-3 d-0.648, 1 mm < d ≤ D
F(d) = 0 , d>D
Tabulation
HOLE DIA RANGE (mm) Inlets 50 to 150 mm diameter Inlets >150 mm diameter
1 to 3 1.4E-03 1.4E-03
3 to 10 7.4E-04 7.4E-04
10 to 50 4.1E-04 4.1E-04
50 to 150 2.2E-04 1.1E-04
>150 --- 1.1E-04
TOTAL 2.8E-03 2.8E-03
Graphical Representation
32
Process Release Frequencies
Flexible pipework release frequencies per metre year by pipe diameter (based on 2006-2015 data)
General equation F(d) = Cdm + B , 1 mm < d ≤ D
F(d) = 0 , d>D
Where the parameters C, m and B are dependent on the equipment size (D) as given in by
interpolation from the following table
Equipment Diameter (mm)
C 1.59 x 10 -3
9.70 x 10 -5
1.82 x 10-5
B 0 0 0
Values greater than 508 mm use the same value as for 508 mm
Tabulation
HOLE DIA 2" DIA 6” DIA 12” DIA 18” DIA 24” DIA 36” DIA
RANGE (mm) (50 mm) (150 mm) (300 mm) (450 mm) (600 mm) (900 mm)
1 to 3 5.8E-04 9.7E-05 1.9E-05 6.2E-06 3.2E-06 3.2E-06
3 to 10 3.0E-04 6.4E-05 1.5E-05 5.3E-06 2.9E-06 2.9E-06
10 to 50 1.7E-04 4.6E-05 1.3E-05 5.3E-06 3.0E-06 3.0E-06
50 to 150 9.2E-05 1.7E-05 5.6E-06 2.7E-06 1.6E-06 1.6E-06
>150 --- 2.8E-05 1.4E-05 1.0E-05 7.5E-06 7.5E-06
TOTAL 1.1E-03 2.5E-04 6.6E-05 3.0E-05 1.8E-05 1.8E-05
Graphical Representation
33
Process Release Frequencies
B 0 0 0
Values greater than 508 mm use the same value as for 508 mm
Tabulation
HOLE DIA 2" DIA 6” DIA 12” DIA 18” DIA 24” DIA 36” DIA
RANGE (mm) (50 mm) (150 mm) (300 mm) (450 mm) (600 mm) (900 mm)
1 to 3 1.0E-03 1.7E-04 3.3E-05 1.1E-05 5.6E-06 5.6E-06
3 to 10 5.3E-04 1.1E-04 2.5E-05 9.3E-06 5.0E-06 5.0E-06
10 to 50 2.9E-04 8.1E-05 2.2E-05 9.2E-06 5.2E-06 5.2E-06
50 to 150 1.6E-04 3.0E-05 9.7E-06 4.7E-06 2.8E-06 2.8E-06
>150 --- 4.8E-05 2.4E-05 1.8E-05 1.3E-05 1.3E-05
TOTAL 2.0E-03 4.4E-04 1.1E-04 5.2E-05 3.2E-05 3.2E-05
34
Process Release Frequencies
Graphical Representation
35
Process Release Frequencies
36
Process Release Frequencies
Graphical Representation
37
Process Release Frequencies
Graphical Representation
38
Process Release Frequencies
Xmas tree release frequencies per equipment year (based on 2006-2015 data)
General equation F(d) = 4.01 × 10-4 d-0.822, 1 mm < d ≤ D
F(d) = 0 , d>D
Tabulation
HOLE DIA RANGE (mm) Connections 50 to 150 mm diameter Connections >150 mm diameter
1 to 3 2.4E-04 2.4E-04
3 to 10 1.0E-04 1.0E-04
10 to 50 4.4E-05 4.4E-05
50 to 150 1.6E-05 9.6E-06
>150 --- 6.5E-06
TOTAL 4.0E-04 4.0E-04
Graphical Representation
39
Process Release Frequencies
Graphical Representation
Note that the overall frequencies based on 1992-2005 are very close to those for the last 10 year period (2006-2015) such that the results quoted in this
datasheet are the same when expressed to two significant figures.
40
Process Release Frequencies
Pipeline ESDV release frequencies per valve year (based on 2006-2015 data)
General equation F(d) = 6.63 × 10-4 d-0.635 + 1.68 × 10-5, 1 mm < d ≤ D
F(d) = 0 , d>D
Tabulation
HOLE DIA RANGE (mm) Connections 50 to 150 mm diameter Connections >150 mm diameter
1 to 3 3.3E-04 3.3E-04
3 to 10 1.8E-04 1.8E-04
10 to 50 9.8E-05 9.8E-05
50 to 150 7.2E-05 2.8E-05
>150 --- 4.4E-05
TOTAL 6.8E-04 6.8E-04
Graphical Representation
41
Process Release Frequencies
Graphical Representation
42
Process Release Frequencies
Table 2-1: Nominal Failure Rates Specified in the LNG FRT From [3]
Cryogenic Storage
Rupture of Storage Tank Outlet/Withdrawal Line 3 x 10-5
Tanks (General)
Release from hole in inner tank with effective diameter of 0.01 m (0.4”) 1 x 10-4 per tank
Release from hole in inner tank with effective diameter of 0.01 m (0.4”) 1 x 10-4 per tank
Release from hole in inner tank with effective diameter of 0.01 m (0.4”) 1 x 10-4 per tank
Release from a hole in transfer arm with effective diameter of 10% 3 x 10-3 per transfer
transfer arm diameter with maximum of 50 mm (2”) arm
Truck Transfer
4 x 10-2 per transfer
Rupture of transfer hose
hose
Release from a hole in transfer hose with effective diameter of 10% 4 x 10-1 per transfer
transfer arm diameter with maximum of 50 mm (2”) hose
5 Note that the outer wall of a single containment atmospheric storage tank will not normally be designed to contain cryogenic material.
A release from the inner tank should conservatively be assumed to result in a release to atmosphere.
43
Process Release Frequencies
Release from a hole with effective diameter of 1/3 of pipe diameter 2 x 10-7 per metre
Piping: 300 mm (12”)
<= d < 500 mm (20”) Release from a hole with effective diameter of 10% pipe diameter, up
4 x 10-7 per metre
to 50 mm (2”)
Release from a hole with effective diameter of 25 mm (1”) 5 x 10-7 per metre
Release from a hole with effective diameter of 1/3 of pipe diameter 1 x 10-7 per metre
Piping: 500 mm (20”)
<= d < 1000 mm (40”) Release from a hole with effective diameter of 10% pipe diameter, up
2 x 10-7 per metre
to 50 mm (2”)
Release from a hole with effective diameter of 25 mm (1”) 4 x 10-7 per metre
In 2006, DNV compared failure rate data for equipment in LNG facilities with those
derived from the HCRD. The comparison indicated that LNG failure frequencies could
have been around 40% to 65% of the equivalent equipment on offshore installations. It
may be assumed that leak frequencies for LNG facilities have reduced over the period
since the study was conducted in a similar way to those for offshore facilities in the UKCS.
However, this has not been verified and the data for LNG installations is relatively sparse.
It is therefore recommended that, as an alternative to using the values in Table 2-1 or
for equipment that is not listed there, the frequencies given in section 2 are used. A 50%
reduction could be considered as a sensitivity but decisions based on this would need to be
fully justified.
44
Process Release Frequencies
The release frequencies given in Section 2 are valid for holes of diameter (d) from 1 mm
to the diameter of the equipment (D). Frequencies of smaller holes may be estimated
by extrapolation of the frequencies to smaller hole sizes, but this is beyond the range of
the HSE data (see Section 4) and in any event are unlikely to ignite unless under specific
conditions such as high system pressure coupled with discharge into an area with low
ventilation. Extrapolation to large hole sizes is acceptable given the lack of alternative
information from other data sources. However, the levels of uncertainty are greater for
larger hole sizes because they are based on relatively few incidents. The data presented
in section 2 includes frequencies for incidents in hole size ranges which may not yet
have been experienced in the UKCS for a given equipment type. These frequencies will
normally be lower than the frequency which would be calculated from a single incident
for the exposure population. It is possible that there are physical reasons why a given type
of equipment is less likely to have a release with a large hole size than predicted in the
correlations. However, until sufficient experience is available to demonstrate otherwise, it is
assumed that extrapolation of the correlations between the largest recorded hole size and
the equipment size is the most appropriate approach.
The release frequencies are valid for equipment diameters (D) within the normal range of
offshore equipment. This is not precisely defined in the available equipment population data.
Using judgment based on the trends of the estimated diameter dependence and the average
diameters of the available data groups, the following ranges of validity are suggested:
• Pipes: 20 to 1000 mm
• Actuated valves: 10 to 1000 mm
• Flanges: 10 to 1000 mm
• Instruments: 10 to 100 mm
• Manual valves: 10 to 1000 mm
• Pig traps: 100 to 1000 mm
• All other equipment: 40 to 400 mm
With lesser confidence, the datasheets in Section 2 can be used to estimate frequencies
over larger ranges, but they should be subject to sensitivity testing.The frequencies are not
recommended for equipment outside this range.
6 The justification for using offshore data for onshore facilities is two-fold. First, no public domain dataset for onshore facilities is available
that is comparable to HCRD, considering both the equipment population and completeness of recording releases. Second, although
offshore facilities operate in a more challenging (e.g., more corrosive) environment, this is compensated for in the design, inspection
and maintenance. Hence there is no apparent reason why onshore and offshore release frequencies should differ significantly. However,
some environmental factors are considered in Sections 3.3.1 and 3.3.2. The standard of the safety management system is also believed
to have a major influence on release frequencies, regardless of operating environment, as also discussed in Section 3.3.2.
45
Process Release Frequencies
3.2 Uncertainties
The sources of uncertainties in the estimated release frequencies are discussed in Section 4.1.3.
The uncertainty in the release frequencies presented in Section 2 tends to be greatest for
large hole sizes, for equipment sizes far from the centres of the ranges of validity given in
Section 3.1, and for equipment types where fewer releases have been recorded (see Section
4.1.1). While there is greater uncertainty in these situations, it is considered that the
approach taken in deriving these frequencies is conservative.
Many of these are addressed in API 581 [4] which is discussed in Section 3.3.2. along with
the influence of safety management. Some more specific factors relating to inter-unit
piping are presented in Section 3.3.3. and flanges in section 3.3.4 .
46
Process Release Frequencies
The basic function of the damage factor is to statistically evaluate the amount of damage
that may be present as a function of time in service and the effectiveness of an inspection
activity. Damage factors are not intended to reflect the actual probability of failure
but to reflect a relative level of concern about a given component based on the stated
assumptions in each of the applicable sections of the document. Damage factor estimates
are provided for the following damage mechanisms:
• Thinning
• Stress Corrosion Cracking
• External Damage
• High Temperature Hydrogen Attack
• Mechanical Fatigue (Piping Only), and
• Brittle Fracture
These can be combined to provide an overall multiplying factor for the equipment.
A management systems factor is used to adjust generic failure frequencies for differences
in process safety management systems. This factor is derived from the results of an
evaluation of a facility or operating unit’s management systems that affect plant risk.
Within any one study, the management systems factor should be the same and the factor is
applied equally to all components. The management systems factor can have a significant
effect on the overall leak frequency for a facility. The management systems evaluation
covers all areas of a plant’s PSM system that impact directly or indirectly on the mechanical
integrity of process equipment.
The methodology includes an evaluation tool to assess the portions of the facility’s
management system that most directly impact the probability of failure of a component.
This consists of a series of interviews with plant management, operations, inspection,
maintenance, engineering, training, and safety personnel.It comprises numerous
questions, most of which have multiple parts. Each possible answer to each question is
given a weight, depending upon the appropriateness of the answer and the importance of
the topic.
The overall process is complex and it is not usual for damage factors and management
system factors to be included in a QRA to determine modified loss of containment
frequencies. The GFFs to which the factors are applied are not directly derived from the
HCRD so it would be inappropriate for them to applied without care. The standard of
management systems within operators of North Sea installations may be relatively high
and so on average score more than 50% on the API 581 tool.It is noted in [5], commenting
on the 2nd edition of API 581, that “overall, the observed tendency towards very low MF
scores for average good sites today may bias the results and lead to underestimates of leak
frequencies and thus this aspect of the API 581 method is not recommended. In fact, very few
sites implementing risk-based inspection use this management system correction factor”.
47
Process Release Frequencies
If it is believed that higher frequencies are applicable, then a factor should be applied.
However, a factor to reduce the frequencies should not be applied.
These were relevant to the assessed offshore process leak frequencies at the time the
analysis was carried out in 1989 and 1993.The ratio may be assumed to still be applicable to
the values given in section 2.
Note that these two confidential studies were quoted in the previous version of this report
(434-01, March 2010) but have not been available for authors of this update to review,
therefore this section of this report remains unchanged from the previous version.
3.3.4 Flanges
Studies [8] and [9] of the effect of flange type on flange failure frequency developed
modification factors to the frequencies presented in the previous version of the datasheet
and recommended their application when performing detailed risk analyses where the
flange types are known or alternatively as decision input to design when flange types are to
be decided. The flange types considered were:
• ANSI Ring Joint
• ANSI Raised faced
• Compact flange
• Grayloc flange
The ANSI Ring Joint, historically the most common flange type in the UK offshore industry, was
assumed to be represented by the HCRD data for flanges based on 1992-2006 data. Factors for
the other types generally indicated an order of magnitude reduction in leak frequency for holes
in the range 1 mm - 50 mm but comparable for hole sizes larger than this.
48
Process Release Frequencies
Given the significant reduction in the observed frequency of leaks from flanges in the period
2006-2015 compared with previous experience and the absence of a comparable study
on modification factors it is not recommend to apply modification factors to the values
presented in section 2.
The PLOFAM study [10] concluded that the leak frequency for compact flanges may be an
order of magnitude lower than standard flanges but this is based on a very small sample.
It is also considered that while compact flanges may have a reduced probability of leaking
when first in use, the advantage may be reduced following maintenance involving re-
bolting.
49
Process Release Frequencies
The HSE hydrocarbon release database (HCRD) has become the standard source of
release frequencies for offshore QRA and provides a large, high-quality collection of
release experience. Reporting of offshore incidents is required in the UK by various pieces
of legislation including the Reporting of Injuries, Diseases and Dangerous Occurrences
Regulations 2013 (RIDDOR) [14]. Additionally, European Commission Implementing
Regulation (EU) No 1112/2014 [15] now applies in the UK and creates legal obligations to
report certain types of incident. However, this has not affected the reporting of incidents in
the time period considered here. The database contains reports of 4664 releases up until 31
December 2015, of which 3551 relate to the equipment types addressed in this datasheet.
The database is considered to be the best available source of data for offshore process
leaks given that it collects data from over 300 offshore installations since October 1992
and is believed to include a very high proportion of leaks with an equivalent hole diameter
of more than 1 mm. The population data is based on information collected in an extensive
study in the 1990s which was updated in the following years. A review in 2015 identified that
data from many recent platforms had not been included and not all process systems had
their equipment counted. The population data was adjusted and revised estimates issued
[13]. These estimates relate only to fixed production installations since insufficient records
of the time which mobile units were operating in UKCS waters are available. Despite this
issue the HCRD is considered the most comprehensive collection of data available. Hence it
has been selected in preference to other data sources discussed in Section 4.4.
50
Process Release Frequencies
11. Heat exchangers: Shell & Tube, shell side 29 16 7,127 exchanger years
12. Heat exchangers: Shell & Tube, tube side 30 18 12,643 exchanger years
51
Process Release Frequencies
– D
eliberate releases which were accidentally ignited, i.e. incidents which would
not have been included had they not ignited.
– Releases which do not comply with the current OGUK reporting criteria [17].
The majority of incidents in the HCRD become excluded in this process. The number
of remaining “selected” incident is 1965 of which 1662 relate to the equipment types
addressed in this datasheet.
• Grouping data for different types and sizes of equipment where there is insufficient
experience to show significant differences between them.
• Redistribution of incidents for which equipment types were not recorded.
Redistribution was proportional to the fraction of each equipment type for which an
equipment code was assigned.
• Determination of frequencies: this was undertaken using two criteria:
1) Frequency based on selected incidents in the most recent 10 year period or 10
incidents if there were less than this number in the 10 year period.
2) Frequency based on all selected incidents up until 31st December 2015.
• Determination of hole size distributions using all selected data available in the HCRD.
• Fitting analytical frequency functions to the data, in order to obtain a smooth variation
of release frequency varying with equipment type and hole size. For some equipment
types the influence of equipment size can also be inferred.
• Generation of tabulated data for hole size ranges using the analytical frequency
functions.
F(d) = 0 , d>D
where:
C, m and B are constants specific to the equipment type and release scenario
For four types of equipment there are sufficient data in each of the equipment size sub-
categories to establish size specific parameters. These are: steel process pipes, flanges,
manual valves and actuated valves (non-pipeline). Based on these, interpolation functions
can be developed to model the effect of variation in equipment size on the C, m and B
parameters with equipment size. For all other equipment types the same function is applied
irrespective of equipment size other than the hole size is limited to the size of the equipment.
The function can then be used to calculate the frequency of a release in any size range (such
as the ranges used in Section 2). The frequency of leak in the range d1 to d2 is F(d1) – F(d2).
52
Process Release Frequencies
Figure 4-1
Figure 4-1: Mathematical Correlation Fitted to Historical Data for Flanges 3” - 11”
53
Process Release Frequencies
• Selection of relevant incidents. The process for selection of relevant incidents has a
degree of subjectivity. There will be incidents which have been incorrectly included
or excluded from the analysis. However, these incidents will predominantly be those
which have small hole sizes (less than 2 mm) whereas the frequency distributions are
primarily influenced by the larger hole size incidents (2mm and above).
• Inappropriate representation of the release frequency distributions by the fitted
correlations. The uncertainty in the correlations are largely dependent on the number
of relevant incidents available upon which to base the analysis. The simplifications
inherent in the chosen functions, and their use to extrapolate frequencies for sizes
where no releases have yet been recorded is a further factor.
4.1.4 Conclusions
Others have also analysed the HCRD and obtained different functional forms for the release
frequencies. However, the process outlined above provides:
• An analysis of the most recent incident data for which final information is available.
• Inclusion of the currently accepted best estimate of the process equipment.
• Frequencies derived from a process of fitting correlations which provide a smooth
variation for hole sizes.
• A model that is consistent with recent experience.
On this basis, the tabulations in Section 2 are presented as the best available analysis of
the best available data.
The study identified leaks which were relevant to leak scenarios which would be expected
to be modelled in risk assessments. The model distinguishes two types of leak which are
defined as “significant” and “marginal”. Marginal leaks are those where the total quantity
leaked is less than or equal to 10 kg.
Only the significant leak scenario is relevant for detailed modelling of consequences and
dimensioning accidental loads in a formal QRA. The marginal leak scenario is only relevant
with regard to immediate exposure of personnel in the close vicinity of the release or for
small poorly ventilated enclosures.
Various levels of filtering are applied to the incidents in the HCRD. From this process 1053
are identified as being “significant” leaks and a further 534 are “marginal” leaks. This is a
smaller number than used in the analysis from which the values in section 2 are derived.
54
Process Release Frequencies
This is partly because the PLOFAM study did not have access to the details of the incidents
between 1st April and 31st December 2015 but mostly because of differences in the
selection criteria.
The PLOFAM study derived a series of mathematical equations to represent the hole size
frequency distribution. The general form is
F(d,D) = 0 , d>D
Where F(d,D) is the hole size frequency distribution per year per equipment item
F0 is the total leak frequency per year per equipment item, F0 = F(d=1,D)
FD is the total full bore hole frequency per year per equipment item,
FD = F(d=D,D)
α is a dimensionless parameter
The equation describes a power law relation that is valid for hole sizes less than the
equipment diameter. The total leak frequency F0 and the full bore hole fraction FD are
modelled using the following relations.
Fhist is the average leak frequency (independent of equipment diameter) for
the relevant equipment item per year per equipment item. The subscripts
“significant” and “marginal” are used to denote the historical frequency of
significant leaks and, where relevant, marginal leaks respectively, and
A0, M0, AD, MD and BD are parameters in the total hole and full bore hole
frequency equations
The slope parameter m(D), follows from the assumption of a power law relation and the
values for F0, FD and D:
For several equipment types, many of the parameters have a value 0 or 1, resulting in a
simpler formulation for that equipment type.
Parameters were derived for 20 different equipment types as shown in Table 4-2.
55
Process Release Frequencies
Steel pipe 4.20 -0.30 17.6 -1.75 1.0E-3 0.9 1.40E-5 2.00E-06
4.3 OREDA
OREDA [18] gives the number of incidents of external leakage of process medium from
subsea equipment together with the corresponding exposure data in terms of hours of
operation. This includes, wellheads & xmas trees, flowlines, manifolds, pipelines and
risers. If frequencies derived from theses are used, it should be noted that these are
based on only a small number of incidents and so are subject to statistical uncertainty. It
is suggested that use of onshore/topsides failure frequencies, e.g., the frequencies for the
corresponding equipment types from nos. 1 to 16 above, is preferable.
56
Process Release Frequencies
57
Process Release Frequencies
6. References
58
Process Release Frequencies
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59
Process Release Frequencies
Green A.E. & Bourne A.J., 1972. Reliability Technology, New York: Wiley
Hannaman, G.W., 1978. GCR Reliability Data Bank Status Report, General Atomic Company, Project
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Hawksley, J.L., 1984. Some Social, Technical and Economic Aspects of the Risks of Large Plants,
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HSE (1978), A Safety Evaluation of the Proposed St Fergus to Mossmorran Natural Gas Liquids and St
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IAEA, 1988. Component Reliability Data for Use in Probabilistic Safety Assessment, International Atomic
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Construction and its Relevance to Nuclear Primary Circuits, UKAEA AHSB(S) R162.
Reeves, A.B., Minah, F.C. & Chow, V.H.K., 1997. Quantitative Risk Assessment Methodology for LPG
Installations, EMSD Symposium on Risk and Safety Management in the Gas Industry, Hong Kong.
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