t Yt Pron Movil Ft (Yt-Ft) (Yt-Ft)^2

1/2000 82.5
2/2000 81.3
3/2000 81.3
4/2000 79
1/2001 76.6 81.025 -4.42500000000001 19.5806250000001
2/2001 78 79.55 -1.55 2.40249999999999
3/2001 78.4 78.725 -0.324999999999989 0.105624999999993
4/2001 78 78 0 0
1/2002 78.8 77.75 1.05 1.10249999999999
2/2002 78.7 78.3 0.400000000000006 0.160000000000005
3/2002 78.4 78.475 -0.074999999999989 0.005624999999998
4/2002 80 78.475 1.52500000000001 2.32562500000002
1/2003 80.7 78.975 1.72500000000001 2.97562500000003
2/2003 80.7 79.45 1.25 1.5625
3/2003 80.8 79.95 0.849999999999994 0.72249999999999
1193.2 868.675 0.425000000000026 30.9431250000001

P= 2,81
punto 2 pronostico para la 4/2003= 4/8(79)+3/8(81,3)+2/8(81,3)+1/8(82,5)= 100, 625
 punto 1
Chart Title
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Column C Column D

ECM 2.81301136

5)= 100, 625

 t Yt Pron Movil Ft (Yt-Ft) (Yt-Ft)^2
1/2000 82.5
2/2000 81.3 81.66 -0.36 0.1296
3/2000 81.3 81.408 -0.108 0.011664000000001
4/2000 79 79.72 -0.72 0.518399999999998
1/2001 76.6 77.54 -0.94 0.883600000000022
2/2001 78 77.86 0.14 0.0196
3/2001 78.4 78.24 0.16 0.025600000000004
4/2001 78 78.07 -0.07 0.004899999999999
1/2002 78.8 78.58 0.22 0.0484
2/2002 78.7 78.66 0.04 0.001600000000001
3/2002 78.4 78.688 -0.288 0.08294399999999
4/2002 80 78.4864 1.5136 2.29098495999999
1/2003 80.7 79.54592 1.15408 1.33190064639998
2/2003 80.7 80.353776 0.346224 0.119871058175995
3/2003 80.8 80.5961328 0.2038672 0.04156183523583
1193.2 1109.4082288 1.2917712 5.51062649981181

f15 80.73883984
punto 3
Chart Title
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Column D Column E

ECM 0.39361618

Punto 4 el metodo mas indicado es el de suavizacion exponencial

porque el valor del ECM es el mas pequeño de los metodos