PAPER

G
WORKIN

ASSESSING SOLAR PV’S

POTENTIAL IN LEBANON
Ali H. Berjawi
Sara Najem
Ghaleb Faour
Chadi Abdallah
Ali Ahmad

Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs

4 / Working Paper

Published by the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs,
American University of Beirut.

This report can be obtained from the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and
International Affairs office at the American University of Beirut or can be downloaded
from the following website: www.aub.edu.lb/ifi.

The views expressed in this document are solely those of the authors, and do not
reflect the views of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs
or the American University of Beirut.

Beirut, August 2017 © All Rights Reserved

Cover photo credits:

Ministry of Energy and Water / Lebanese Center for Energy Conservation (LCEC) - 2016
 Assessing Solar PV’s Potential in Lebanon / 1

WORKING PAPER #43

ASSESSING SOLAR PV’S

POTENTIAL IN LEBANON
Ali H. Berjawi
Energy Policy and Security in the Middle East Program, Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and
International Affairs, American University of Beirut 
Sara Najem
National Center for Remote Sensing, National Council for Scientific Research (CNRS), Beirut, Lebanon
Ghaleb Faour
National Center for Remote Sensing, CNRS, Beirut, Lebanon
Chadi Abdallah
National Center for Remote Sensing, CNRS, Beirut, Lebanon
Ali Ahmad
Energy Policy and Security in the Middle East Program, Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and
International Affairs, American University of Beirut, Lebanon
2 / Working Paper

“Lebanese policy-makers underestimate

the role that solar power could
play to improve Lebanon’s energy
security, lower its energy bill and the
environmental impact of using fossil
fuels for electricity generation.”
 Assessing Solar PV’s Potential in Lebanon / 3

CONTENTS

04 05 06
ABSTRACT 1. INTRODUCTION 2. ELECTRICITY
11
3. DISTRIBUTED
SECTOR SOLAR POWER:
IN LEBANON CASE STUDY OF
BEIRUT 
2.1 Indicators and
Governance   6 3.1 Method  11
2.2 Renewable Energy 3.2 Results and
Policies in Lebanon  8 Discussion  12
2.3 Current Status of
Solar Energy  9

14 17 22
4. UTILITY- 5. DISCUSSION 6. CONCLUSION
23
REFERENCES
SCALE SOLAR AND POLICY
PV  5.1 Potential RECOMMENDATIONS
Locations for
4.1 Daily Solar PV Farms in
Load  14 Lebanon  17
4.2 Resources and 5.2 Future Cost
Feasibility   15 Reductions  18
5.3 Financing
Solar PV Farms in
Lebanon  19
5.4 Dealing with
Intermittency  20
5.5 Political
Stability and
Governance  21
4 / Working Paper

ABSTRACT

This working paper presents a holistic view of the

potential of solar photovoltaic (PV) in Lebanon for
both distributed rooftop systems and utility-scale
projects. It covers the technical and policy analysis
that answers questions on the required financial
and land resources, potential locations, deployment
and financing mechanisms. As part of the technical
analysis, a detailed solar map was produced for Beirut,
Lebanon’s capital city. This map acts as a stand-alone
feature that is available online to help inform residents
and policy-makers about the technical feasibility of
solar PV in specific areas. The paper showed that
Lebanese policy-makers underestimate the role that
solar power could play to improve Lebanon’s energy
security, lower its energy bill and the environmental
impact of using fossil fuels for electricity generation.
We showed that solar PV alone could at least cover the
daily peak load. Further technological improvements
and additional substantial reduction in PV module
prices would actually make such prospects more
promising. In terms of practical steps, this analysis
proposes that Lebanon build a capacity of around
1,000 MW of solar PV. This capacity can be divided
between large-scale solar farms and distributed
(rooftop) solar PV, with the majority of production
coming from solar farms.
 Assessing Solar PV’s Potential in Lebanon / 5

1. INTRODUCTION

If you ever lived in or visited Lebanon, chances are In this working paper, we attempt to answer the
you have experienced daily electricity outages. With question of whether the Lebanese government
an increasing demand for electricity, induced by underestimates the potential of solar power. Starting
population growth that is partly due to the large influx from the answer of this question, the paper then
of refugees in recent years, Electricité du Liban (EDL) proposes deployment scenarios that would accelerate
continues to fall short of meeting demand with an Lebanon’s transition towards higher RE generation.
average supply of 15h per day. The deficit, which was Section 2 provides background information about
estimated to be 33 percent in 2014, is covered by the electricity sector in Lebanon, the current policy
private diesel generators. framework in support of solar energy, and the current
status of this technology. Section 3 estimates the
Electricity generation in Lebanon is almost completely
potential of rooftop PV installations in the capital
covered by imported petroleum products, consuming
Beirut, as a case study, while Section 4 examines the
around 50 percent of Lebanon’s imports of fossil fuels
potential of deploying utility-scale solar PV power
(Ibrahim et al., 2013). On the other hand, renewable
plants in Lebanon. Section 5 discusses the potential
energy (RE) constitutes only 4 percent of the total
locations for solar farms, the future cost reductions
power production, mainly via hydropower with a tiny
and financing mechanisms, the issue of intermittency,
contribution from other forms of renewable energy
and the political stability in Lebanon affecting the
(Amine and Rizk, 2016).
governance of the sector.
To improve electricity supply, diversify energy sources
and reduce carbon emissions, Lebanon has pledged
to cover 12 percent of its electricity demand using
renewable energy sources by 2020 and signed to
join the International Renewable Energy Agency
(IRENA) in the same year (Hauge, 2011). This target
has been further asserted in the Electricity Sector
Policy Paper in 2010 (Bassil, 2010), the National
Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP) 2010-2015 and
the National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP)
2016-2020. The Intended Nationally Determined
Contributions (INDC) submitted to the COP21 climage
change conference1 in Paris in 2016 (Republic of
Lebanon, 2015) also committed an unconditional
target of 15 percent of RE generation and a 3 percent
reduction in power demand through energy efficiency
(EE) improvements by 2030. These targets could be
further improved to reach 20 percent and 10 percent
respectively, if additional international support is
provided.

1 COP: Conference of Parties

6 / Working Paper

2. ELECTRICITY
IN LEBANON
2.1 Indicators and Governance
Currently, seven thermal power plants, six Electricity
Electricity Demand
Electricity
Demand and Supply
Demand
and Supply (TWh)(TWh)
and Supply
(TWh)
hydroelectric plants, and two power ships are 20
20 20 17.6
17.6 17.6
operating in Lebanon, in addition to the diesel 16.3
16.3 16.3
15.1
15.1 15.1
generators that are used to compensate for the 14
15
15 1511.8 12.5
12.5 13.2 13.214
13.2
12.5
14
deficit in supply (BlomInvest Bank, 2015). The actual 11.8 11.8
electricity generation capacity by EDL in 2015 was
10
10 10
1983 MW, divided into diesel-fired Combined Cycle 11.9
11.9 11.9
10.7 10.6
10.7 10.7
10.6 10.69.5 10.6
10.6 10.6
Gas Turbine (1051 MW), Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO)-fired 9.6 9.610.1
9.6 10.1 10.1 9.5 9.5
steam turbines (525 MW), HFO-fired barges (367 MW) 5
5 5
and hydropower (40 MW), in addition to generation
from solar PV accounting for 9.45 MW (Amine and 0
0 0
Rizk, 2016). Transmission and distribution losses are 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
20082008
20092009
20102010
20112011
20122012
20132013
20142014
estimated at around 12 percent for 2010 (RCREEE,
2013). Production
Production Volume
Production
Volume
Volume Demand
Demand Volume
Demand
Volume
Volume
The total energy produced, excluding private Figure 2
generators, from 2009 until 2013 is shown in Figure
The mismatch between electricity demand and supply in
1. Prior to 2013, some electricity was imported from
Lebanon (adapted from BlomInvest Bank, 2015)
Egypt and Syria. This has reduced significantly due to
the political instabilities in both countries and was
compensated by power ships.

The share of electricity consumption by the different

Electricity Production by EDL (GWh) sectors in 2010 is shown in Figure 3 (LCEC, 2016a).
14000
Similar to other countries in the Middle East, the
residential sector consumes the largest share of
12000
electricity. Although Lebanon is known for its active
10000 tertiary sector, contributing to 70 percent of the
8000
country’s GDP, the tertiary sector comes third in
10139.36 10003 10751 9218 terms of electricity share with 18 percent, behind the
9464
6000
industrial sector which contributes to 25 percent of
4000 the GDP and consumes 29 percent of the electricity
1045 (IDAL, 2014).
2000
518.49 837 805 Electricity Consumption by Sector
1116 1249 1100 1177 1844
0 304

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Agriculture and

Fishery, 13%
Imports Hydraulic Thermal

Figure 1. Energy production by EDL in 2009-2013 (Bassil, 2010; CAS, 2014; LCEC, 2016a) Residential, 40%
Tertiary, 18%
Figure 1
Electricity production by EDL in 2009-2013 (Bassil, 2010;
CAS, 2014; LCEC, 2016a)

Figure 2 shows the evolution of electricity demand and Industrial, 29%

supply from 2008 to 2014, illustrating the widening
gap between supply and demand. The gap has Figure 3Figure 1. Electricity consumption shares by sector
increased from about 19 percent in 2008 to 33 percent
Electricity consumption by sector
in 2014.
 Assessing Solar PV’s Potential in Lebanon / 7

Electricity Consumption (MWh/capita)

The electricity consumption per capita is considered per capita than the MENA and the world averages and
14.00
high and comparable with countries of a higher level is ranked Electricity
59th globally (UNFCCC, 2015), while it has
Consumption (MWh/capita)
of income. Noticeably, it is also ranked higher than
12.00 higher level of CO2 emissions per GDP USD than the
the world average and the MENA region level in 2013
10.00 World
14.00 average. The power sector is responsible for
(Figure
8.00
4). Figure 4 also shows the low efficiency in 51 percent of the total GHG emissions, 32 percent
12.00
the electricity sector showing relatively high levels of being
10.00 from EDL generation and 16 percent from private
6.00
energy intensity. In terms of CO2 emissions, Lebanon diesel generators, while the remaining is generated
4.00 8.00
generates around 22.5 Mt of CO2 equivalent (World through the consumption of fuels used for cooking and
Bank,
2.00 2016) and is ranked 78th globally (UNFCCC, 6.00 (Ministry of Environment, 2016).
heating
2015).
0.00 Lebanon shows lower levels of CO2 emissions 4.00
2.00
0.00

Electricity Consumption (kWh/GDP USD)

0.60
Electricity
ElectricityConsumption
Consumption(MWh/capita)
(MWh/capita) Electricity
ElectricityConsumption
Consumption(KWh/GDP USD)
(kWh/GDP USD)
0.50
14.00 0.60
0.40
12.00 0.50
0.30
10.00 0.40
0.20
8.00
0.30
6.00
0.10
0.20
4.00
0.00
2.00 0.10
0.00 0.00

CO2 Emissions
CO2
Electricity Emissions(tCO 2/capita)
(tCO2/capita)
Consumption (kWh/GDP USD) CO2 Emissions (kg CO2/GDP USD)
CO2 Emissions (kg CO2/GDP USD)
20
0.60 1.2 CO2 Emissions (tCO2/capita)
0.50 1
15 20
0.40 0.8
10
0.30 15
0.6

0.20 0.4
5 10
0.10 0.2
0
0.00 50

Figure 4
Electricity and emissions indicators (World Bank, 2016)
CO2 Emissions (tCO2/capita)
20

15

10

5
8 / Working Paper
The cost of electricity generation by EDL reached
22.73 USC/kWh in 2014 (BlomInvest Bank, 2015),
while for instance, energy for residences is charged
for 2.33 to 13.33 USC/kWh (Bassil, 2010). The
levies from subscribers thus cannot cover the costs
of generation and constitute only 22.8 percent of
EDL’s financial resources in 2013, not to mention
energy theft, meter tempering, and uncollected bills
(BlomInvest Bank, 2015).
The electricity sector is governed by the Ministry of
Energy and Water (MoEW) as mandated by Law 462,
which also includes provisions for privatization,
liberalization, and unbundling of the electricity
sector (Bassil, 2010). However, the law is not yet fully
implemented; thus, the ministry still operates on
the pre-law structure, namely decrees 16878/1964
and 4517/1972 which give EDL exclusive authority
for generation, transmission, and distribution.
Hydropower is an exception in addition to some
private concessions in the areas of Zahle, Jbeil, Alley,
and Bhamdoun (Farajalla et al., 2016).
The Lebanese Centre for Energy Conservation (LCEC)
is another body affiliated to the MoEW that develops
and implements RE and EE policies and projects.
Other major supporters are the UNDP and EU-
funded projects, namely the CEDRO project that has
implemented many EE and RE projects mainly in large
institutions such as municipalities, hospitals, and
schools.
2.2 Renewable Energy Policies in Lebanon
The Electricity Sector Policy Paper (Bassil, 2010) which
was endorsed by the Council of Ministers in 2010
presents several technical options for EE and RE in
addition to legislative recommendations. The actions
revolve around launching the NEEAP, supporting the
use of solar water heaters (SWHs), and establishing
a national financial mechanism for green energy
projects. The policy paper also calls for introducing
the Independent Power Producers (IPP) model in
collaboration with the private sector, mainly for wind
farms, supported by new laws that promote green
energy. Law 462 does not include any articles on RE and
its support; however, it allows private generation for
personal use up to 1.5 MW. Beyond that, it requires a
permit or a license from the Energy Regulatory Authority
(ERA) (LCEC, 2016b). Clearly, this is an obstacle to
the development of RE, particularly in the absence
of the ERA, which is yet to be established. Currently,
laws 288/2014 and 54/2015 allows the MoEW and
the Ministry of Finance to grant permits and licenses
to IPPs temporarily and until the ERA is formed (LCEC,
2016b). The LCEC aims to keep these permits exclusive
to RE technologies, in line with the national targets (El
Khoury, 2016).
The LCEC has developed the first NEEAP for 2010-
2015 in accordance with the policy paper. It was
adopted by the Council of Ministers in November
2011 and included 14 initiatives. Lebanon was in
fact the first Arab country to officially adopt such a
plan (LCEC, 2016a). The initiatives include promoting
SWHs for residential use and employing wind and
solar technologies for energy generation while
encouraging decentralized power generation. These
initiatives and others were only partly completed,
achieving only 18.6 GWh/year of energy savings from
a target of 2087.6 GWh/year (Jouni et al., 2016).
The key barriers to the complete implementation of
the NEEAP were lack of resources and coordination
between stakeholders, lack of public engagement
and robust data, and subsidized cheap electricity
(Mortada, 2015). The most important achievements
in solar energy were installing 350,000 m2 of SWHs
with a subsidy of $200 per user by 2012 (RCREEE,
2013), establishing performance standards and
labels, and implementing solar street lighting across
many regions (Ruble and Nader, 2011). Moreover,
building solar farms, namely the first stages of the
Beirut River Solar Snake (BRSS) and the Zahrani
power plant with an installed capacity of 1 MW
each, were key achievements. The BRSS project
aims to provide electricity for 10,000 houses with
a final capacity of 10 MW and a cost of $40 million
(Abdel Karim et al., 2014). The second NEEAP for
2016-2020 includes initiatives for EE measures only,
while RE initiatives are separately discussed in the
NREAP 2016-2020. The NREAP includes a detailed
pathway to achieve the announced target for 2020
and estimations for 2030, employing wind, solar PV,
CSP, and SWH technologies, in addition to biomass
and waste-to-energy (LCEC, 2016b). It also discusses
the policies and tools required to reach these targets,
such as legislations, awareness raising, financing
schemes, and a grid code (LCEC, 2016b).
A major support for the expansion of solar energy in
Lebanon is the net-metering policy which has been
adopted by EDL since 2011. Net-metering allows the
flow of electricity in two directions: from the grid to the
customer in case energy demand exceeds production,
and from the customer’s RE facility to the grid in case
of excess production, using a bi-directional meter. Its
advantages include legal and technical simplicity, in
addition to the free installation of the meter by EDL
(Hayek, 2011). The bill at the end of the month will be
the difference between the electrical energy consumed
from the grid and the energy injected into the grid. Any
surplus will be carried to the next month and subtracted
from the consequent bill. However, at the end of each
year, the excess remaining will be cancelled (Melhem
and Mougharbel, 2014). On the other hand, Feed-in-
 Assessing Solar PV’s Potential in Lebanon / 9

Tariff (FiT) policy is not yet introduced in Lebanon since it

requires stability and credibility to be durable, which is
not currently possible (Beheshti, 2010).
Finally, the financing scheme, National Energy
Efficiency and Renewable Energy Action (NEEREA), was
implemented in 2010 by Lebanon’s Central Bank (BDL),
supported by the EU, to provide incentives for green
energy projects in the shape of interest-free, long-term
loans provided by commercial banks to end users.
The loans’ upper limit is $20 million and is offered
at an interest rate of 0.6 percent for no more than 14
years (LCEC, 2015). By September 2016, NEEREA has
approved more than 464 loans, totaling $322 million.
Under NEEREA, 338 solar PV projects, corresponding to
63 percent of all NEEREA projects, were installed with a
capacity of 13.5 MWp (Halawi, 2016). NEEREA helped
in creating more than 10,000 direct and indirect jobs,
with the increase in the number of companies working
in solar PV from 5 in 2010 to more than 70 in 2016.
(Halawi, 2016)
2.3 Current Status of Solar Energy
With around 300 sunny days a year, 8 to 9 hours of
sunshine a day (CEDRO, 2013) and solar insolation
between 2 and 8 kWh/m2/day (Comair, 2009), solar
energy presents a clean alternative to blackouts or
diesel generators, given that most electricity rationing
occurs during the day. In addition to the solar irradiance
levels, the relative lack of dust and sand and the
moderate temperatures make Lebanon favorable for
solar PV farms and ensure maximum efficiency (LCEC,
2016b). LCEC has announced that the target is to reach
12 percent of the electricity and heat energy demand in
2020 from renewable sources (El Khoury, 2016). This
target includes plans to implement 150 MW of solar
PV farms (capacity greater than 1 MW) and 100 MW
of distributed PV systems (rooftop applications and
systems with local consumption) generating 240 GWh
and 160 GWh respectively and accounting for 1.35
percent of the total energy demand by 2020.
The total capacity of solar PV installed in Lebanon has
encountered a significant increase particularly after
the introduction of the NEEREA mechanism in 2012.
According to Amine and Rizk (2016), it reached 9.45
MWp in 2015 accounting for 0.47 percent of the total
electricity capacity of EDL, increasing from only 320
kWp in 2010. The installed capacity constitutes of 8.37
MWp of decentralized systems and the BRSS project
of 1.08 MWp. The electricity generation from the solar
PV installations was estimated to be around 14 GWh
in 2015, equivalent to 0.11 percent of the total annual
generation by EDL (Amine and Rizk, 2016). Figure 5
shows the evolution of solar PV installed capacity and
the total annual energy generation from 2010 until 2015.
10 / Working Paper

Solar PV Capacity and Generation

10 9.45 16,000
9 14,000
13907
8
12,000
7

Generation (MWh)
Capacity (MWp)

6 10,000

5 8,000
3.8
4 6,000
5520
3
1.75 4,000
2
2704
0.78 2,000
1 0.32 0.45
1231
515 719
0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Capacity Generation

Figure 1. Solar PV installed capacity and total generation from 2010-2015 (Amine and Rizk, 2016)
Figure 5
Solar PV installed capacity and total generation from 2010-
2015 (Amine and Rizk, 2016)

The number of new solar PV projects increased from The Beirut Governorate stands second in terms of
18 in 2011 to 259 in 2015, with the average size of solar PV installations amongst other governorates
each project also increasing from 5 kWp in 2010 to 21 in Lebanon with 25 percent, following Mount
kWp in 2015. The total investments in these projects Lebanon. Being the capital of Lebanon and the
reached $30.52M in 2015 (Amine and Rizk, 2016). center of its economic activities, Beirut consumes
One can contribute the reason behind the increase in about 12 percent of the total electricity produced,
the rate of installing PV systems to the decrease in the while its area is just 0.2 percent of the total country
price of these systems, where it fell by more than 60 area (BEF, 2015). Moreover, the distribution of
percent in just six years, from 7,178 $/kWp in 2010 electricity consumption in Beirut by sector, shows
to 2,675 $/kWp in 2015. Electricity generation from that the tertiary sector (comprising commercial,
solar PV has led to an estimated cumulative monetary public, hotels and hospitals) consumes 71 percent
saving and emissions reduction of $7,400,000 and of the energy provided by EDL, while the residential
17,855 tCO2 until 2015 respectively (Amine and Rizk, sector consumes 27 percent of it (BEF, 2015). This,
2016). compared to the fact that the commercial and
residential sector are leading all around Lebanon
in terms of implementing solar projects, indicates a
significant potential for expanding the adoption of
this technology in Beirut, within these sectors.
 Assessing Solar PV’s Potential in Lebanon / 11

3. DISTRIBUTED SOLAR POWER:

CASE STUDY OF BEIRUT
As part of this study, the Beirut Solar Map, an Further, we collected data of electricity consumption in
interactive online tool, has been developed to Beirut for the years 2006 until 2013 from EDL. Our aim
estimate the potential of solar power gains from the was to build a model that can predict the variation in
installation of PV panels on rooftops in Beirut. The this metric, which we denoted by E, and have a yearly
map also aims to promote the use of solar energy and estimate of the solar energy return. For this we split
serves as a decision-making tool for PV installations. our data into training and test sets: the first consists of
The map, made publicly available, shows the five years of electricity consumption and the remaining
irradiation data for each and every building in Beirut. three years constitute the test set, which are both
Relevant data were only available in the form of randomly sampled without repetition, 1,000 times.
monthly average global horizontal and direct normal For each realization, we calculated the prediction and
irradiations in the Climatic Zoning report (UNDP, training errors for linear and higher order polynomials.
2005), where their spatial variability within the Finally, the maximum likelihood model minimized both
city is not captured. Conversely, our estimates are types of errors which in this case is given by
based on fine-grained computation of irradiation on
the building level using the solar analyst of ArcGIS. 𝐸𝐸 = −7.468 × 1010 + (3.775 × 107 × 𝑌𝑌) (1)
The simulation used buildings’ elevations and the
city’s topography combined with the weather data 𝑁𝑁𝑠𝑠 = −3022997 + (1585 × 𝑌𝑌)
Likewise, we used the yearly number of subscribers
to produce a year-long, city-wide irradiation map.
from EDL, which is denoted by Ns, to predict it for
Simultaneously, a maximum likelihood model was
2016. Similarly, we computed the respective errors of
built to predict the increase in energy consumption
the training and test sets for linear and polynomials
and the number of users. Subsequently, the average
to identify the maximum likelihood model, which is
total yearly savings and the number of beneficiary
given by
subscribers were estimated. 𝐸𝐸 = −7.468 × 1010 + (3.775 × 107 × 𝑌𝑌)
3.1 Method 𝑁𝑁𝑠𝑠 = −3022997 + (1585 × 𝑌𝑌) (2)
In order to compute Beirut’s solar irradiation, we used
𝑁𝑁𝑠𝑠 = −7.468 × 1010 3.775 × 107 × 𝑌𝑌 (2)
its topography raster combined with the shapefile of 𝑁𝑁𝑠𝑠 = −7.468 × 1010 3.775 × 107 ×
the buildings’ footprints and elevations, accounting Then, given the number of subscribers and𝑁𝑁𝑠𝑠the total × 1010 3.775
= −7.468
Then, given
for the urban setting where neighboring buildings 10 the number of subscribers and
electricity the
consumption in Beirut we computed its we
total electricity consumption in Beirut
𝑁𝑁 = −7.468 × 10 3.775 ×
Then,
10 7 given the number of subscribers and the total electricity co
× 𝑌𝑌 (2)is denoted by U.
affect the total irradiation a given rooftop
computed
𝑠𝑠
its average receives.
value per A user, averagewhich we value
Then, denoted per user,
given bythe which
U.number of subscribers and theby total
survey was carried out to collect the details of all the computed its average value per user, which we denoted U. electri
Then, givenAlthough
the number of subscribers anddetails the total The number of potential benefitting subscribers N for
buildings. the The
three-dimensional
number of potential benefitting of electricity consumption
subscribers
computed itsinaverage
Nk for
Beirut valuewe per user, which we k
denoted by U.
each
The building
number of iseach
kpotential
given building
by:
benefitting
k is given by:
subscribers N for each building
the rooftops
computed are important,
its average value perit was
user,safely
whichassumed
we denoted thatby U. k
they are all flat. However, this assumption should be The number of potential benefitting subscribers Nk for each bu
𝐼𝐼 ℎ ×𝐴𝐴 ×𝑓𝑓 ×𝜖𝜖
corrected by providing the three-dimensional building 𝑁𝑁𝑘𝑘 = 𝑘𝑘 𝑘𝑘 𝑘𝑘 𝑘𝑘 (3) 𝐼𝐼 ℎ ×𝐴𝐴 ×𝑓𝑓 ×𝜖𝜖(3)
The number of potential benefitting subscribers Nk for each building k is given 𝑈𝑈 by: 𝑁𝑁𝑘𝑘 = 𝑘𝑘 𝑘𝑘 𝑘𝑘ℎ 𝑘𝑘
details available at the municipalities. Alternatively, 𝑈𝑈 𝐼𝐼 Figure 6×𝜖𝜖
𝑘𝑘 ×𝐴𝐴𝑘𝑘 ×𝑓𝑓𝑘𝑘 The
𝑘𝑘 Beirut
this could be done using LIDAR images, which when 𝑁𝑁 𝑘𝑘 =
𝑈𝑈
Where for building𝐼𝐼𝑘𝑘ℎk, ×𝐴𝐴𝐼𝐼𝑘𝑘𝑘𝑘×𝑓𝑓is
ℎ
its𝑘𝑘 global horizontal irradiation data, Ak is the area, fk is varying the
provided to a ray back-tracing algorithm, 𝑁𝑁𝑘𝑘 =can reveal
𝑈𝑈
𝑘𝑘 ×𝜖𝜖
the Where for
Where forbuilding
building
The expected k, 𝐼𝐼𝑘𝑘ℎ is is
k, (3)
its
total
itsglobal
solarhorizontal
global power
horizontal irradiation
from the yearlydata, Aglo
k is
full building details. However,
fractiontheseof itsare not available
usable rooftop, and 𝜖𝜖𝑘𝑘 irradiation denotesWhere the data,
different
for Abuilding
k isPVtheefficiencies.
area,
k, 𝐼𝐼 ℎ f is varying the fraction
is its global horizontal irradiation dat
fraction ofGWh, its usable rooftop,
where andtaken
𝑘𝑘 k
𝜖𝜖𝑘𝑘 denotes bethe10-15 different PV efficien
for Lebanon. In addition to the geometry and elevation of its usable rooftop, and 𝜖𝜖𝑘𝑘 is denotes to different
the PVpercent. The
Where for building k, 𝐼𝐼𝑘𝑘ℎ is its global horizontal irradiation data, Ak is fraction the area,offk its is varying the
usable rooftop, and 𝜖𝜖𝑘𝑘 denotes the different PV e
of neighboring buildings, overshadowing
Since the actual number is season of subscribers efficiencies.
per building Nℎa,k is not available, Nk will serve as an
and latitude
fraction of itsdependent, andand
usable rooftop, directly linkedthe
𝜖𝜖𝑘𝑘 denotes to the Since
different PV efficiencies. the 𝑘𝑘 𝑘𝑘 𝑘𝑘 𝑘𝑘 . Inoforder
actual
∑ 𝐴𝐴 number
𝐼𝐼 𝜖𝜖 subscribers to evaluate
per building these Nfindings,a,k is not avaiwe
approximation of the potential number Since of the
Since actual
subscribers the number
that
actual can ofmake
number subscribers
ofuse of per building
solar
subscribers power
per in
building a N is no
diffuse fraction of solar irradiation which Sfeir (1981) a,k
Napproximation
a,k is not available,
of theNkpotential
consumption willinserve number
Beirut, as an of subscribers
given by
approximation the that can make
maximum like
measured
Since and tracked
the actual numberits
ofmonthly
subscribers
building. variation
The total and
per building
number is inNof a,k is not
potential available, Nk will serve as anof solarnumber
of thesubscribers
building. approximation
potential
The total
making
number of of
number
use
the potential
subscribers
of potential
power
that can
subscribers
inmake
of Beirut
subscribersmakingthat usecao
our simulation. 7. The blue line is the fit of the maximum likelihoo
approximation of the potential𝑁𝑁𝑡𝑡 = ∑number of subscribers that can use
and make of solar power
use ofwith solar in a
power building.
innumber
a The total number of
𝑘𝑘 𝑁𝑁𝑘𝑘 , was also computed compared the totalnumber ofofcompared
subscribers N.
𝑁𝑁𝑡𝑡 = ∑building.
potential
The
𝑘𝑘 , was also making
𝑘𝑘 𝑁𝑁subscribers
total
computed use and
potential
of solar power in
subscribers
with sthe total makingnu
building. The total number of potential
Similarly, subscribers
we calculated Nk and making use of𝑁𝑁𝑡𝑡solar
Nt corresponding
Beirut = ∑to𝑘𝑘 power
the
𝑁𝑁 , direct
was
was in Beirut
normal
also
also computed irradiation
computed and
and 𝐼𝐼 𝑑𝑑
.
compared
compared with the to
Similarly, we calculated 𝑘𝑘 Nk and Nt corresponding 𝑘𝑘 to the direct norma
𝑁𝑁𝑡𝑡 = ∑𝑘𝑘 𝑁𝑁𝑘𝑘 , was also computed and compared with the total number
with the total number
of subscribers of subscribers N . Similarly,
Ns.Nk and Ns t corresponding to the direct
we calculatedSimilarly, Nk andwe calculated
Nt corresponding to the direct
ϯ͘Ϯ ZĞƐƵůƚƐĂŶĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶ ϯ͘Ϯ ZĞƐƵůƚƐĂŶĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶ
Similarly, we calculated Nk and Nt corresponding to the direct normal normal irradiation
irradiation 𝐼𝐼𝑘𝑘𝑑𝑑 .
ϯ͘Ϯ ZĞƐƵůƚƐĂŶĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶ
Using the Solar Analyst of ArcGIS, we ran monthly simulations to compute the cumulative
ϯ͘Ϯ ZĞƐƵůƚƐĂŶĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶ Using the Solar Analyst of ArcGIS, we ran monthly simulations to
yearly irradiation Beirut receives by varying its diffuse fraction based on the work of monthly
Sfeir
yearly Using the Solar
irradiation BeirutAnalyst of by
receives ArcGIS, weitsran
varying simulati
diffuse fraction ba
Using the Solar Analyst (1981).
of ArcGIS,
The we ran were
results monthly simulations
retrieved to compute
in the form thethat
of rasters cumulative
mapped out the global horizontal
(1981).yearly irradiation
The results were Beirut receives
retrieved by varying
in the form its that
of rasters diffuse fract
mapped
yearly irradiation Beirut as
receives
well asby
thevarying its diffuse
direct normal fractionread
irradiations, based on the
Thework
in RStudio, of Sfeir
aresults
software used for statistical analysis,
as well(1981).
as the direct normalwere retrieved
irradiations, in the
read form of rasters
in RStudio, thatus
a software m
 775 × 107 × 𝑌𝑌
12 / Working Paper (2)

ectricity consumption in Beirut we

y U.

h building k is given by: Figure 6 The Beirut Solar Map Figure 6

3.2 Results and Discussion Figure 6 The Beirut Solar Map
Using the Solar Analyst of ArcGIS, Figurewe 6 The
ranBeirut The
Solar Map
monthly expected The totalexpected
solar power frompower
total solar theThe expected
yearly
from theglobaltotalhorizontal
yearly solar
globalpowerirradiation
from the y
simulations The to compute
expected (3)totalthe cumulative
solar power yearly
from 10the yearly global horizontal
horizontal irradiations
irradiations S is ( ) GWh, where
The expected total solar power𝑁𝑁from 𝑠𝑠 = −7.468
the yearly × 10global3.775horizontal
× 10 × 𝑌𝑌7
(2) × 𝜖𝜖h ) GWh, where
h 4153 × 𝜖𝜖 𝜖𝜖𝑘𝑘 ispowers
taken toarebe calculate
10-15 per
GWh, whereirradiations Sh is (4153 𝑘𝑘
irradiation Beirut receives by varying its diffuse 𝜖𝜖𝑘𝑘 is taken
is taken totobebe 10-15
10-15 𝑘𝑘 percent. These
percent . These powers are
fraction
GWh, where is 10-15
to𝜖𝜖work taken to (1981).
be 10-15 percent. These powers areas calculated as follows: 𝑆𝑆 = In order
𝑆𝑆ℎ = ∑𝑘𝑘 𝐴𝐴𝑘𝑘 𝐼𝐼𝑘𝑘ℎ ℎ𝜖𝜖𝑘𝑘 ..In order to to evaluate these find
Then,AGWh,
n data, is the
kgiven where fbased
area,number
the is is
k𝜖𝜖𝑘𝑘 on
of the
taken
varying the 𝑘𝑘be
subscribers of Sfeir
andpercent.
the total The
These powers
electricity are calculated
calculated
ℎ consumption as follows:
in evaluate
Beirut wethese
results were retrieved in the form of rasters ∑
that𝑘𝑘 𝐴𝐴𝑘𝑘 𝐼𝐼𝑘𝑘 𝜖𝜖𝑘𝑘 . In order
evaluate to
∑𝑘𝑘 𝐴𝐴𝑘𝑘 𝐼𝐼𝑘𝑘 𝜖𝜖𝑘𝑘 . In order to evaluate these findings, we compare it to the total predicted electricity
ℎ these findings, we findings,
compare we
it to compare
the total it to the total p
PV efficiencies.
∑
computed 𝐴𝐴 𝐼𝐼
its
ℎ
𝜖𝜖
𝑘𝑘 𝑘𝑘 average. In order
value to evaluate
per user, these findings,
which weasdenoted we compare it to the total predicted electricity consumption in Beirut, given by the maxi
𝑘𝑘 mapped 𝑘𝑘 out the global horizontal well as by theU.direct
consumption predicted
in Beirut, electricity
given byconsumption
theshown
maximum in Beirut,
likelihood givenmodel
by (Equation
consumption consumption
normal irradiations,
in Beirut, given in
readby Beirut,
inthe given
RStudio,
maximum by the maximum
a software
likelihood used likelihood model
the maximum
model (Equation (Equation
1) shown 1)
likelihood
in Figuremodel in Figure
(Equation
7. The blue line 1)isshown
the fitin
of the maximum
isThe
not number
available, Nk will serve
forofstatistical
potential analysis, as anand
benefitting overlaid on top of7.the Figure 7.
by:The line is maximum
the fit of error.
thelikelihood
maximum likelihood
7. The blue line 7. The blue
is the fitline
of issubscribers
the the fit of the
maximum
for each
Nkmaximum
likelihood
building
The blue
likelihood
model
kline
ismodel
given
that minimizes
is the
that fit of
minimizes
the
the
test error.the test model that minimizes
buildings’
at can make use of solar power in a shapefile to create the interactive solar model that minimizes the test error.
map (Figure 6). When a building’s polygon
𝐼𝐼 ℎ ×𝐴𝐴 ×𝑓𝑓 ×𝜖𝜖 is clicked
king use ofon solar
the map,powera in popupBeirut message
𝑁𝑁𝑘𝑘 = 𝑘𝑘 𝑘𝑘 𝑘𝑘 𝑘𝑘
appears 𝑈𝑈 containing
(3)
information about the average daily global horizontal
he total number of subscribers Ns.
Where for irradiation
building k, 𝐼𝐼𝑘𝑘ℎ ,isthe its average daily direct
global horizontal normal data, Ak is the area, fk is varying the
irradiation
2
rect normal irradiation
irradiation 𝐼𝐼𝑘𝑘 ., and their corresponding Nk .
𝑑𝑑
fraction of its usable rooftop, and 𝜖𝜖𝑘𝑘 denotes the different PV efficiencies.

Since the actual number of subscribers per building Na,k is not available, Nk will serve as an
approximation of the potential number of subscribers that can make use of solar power in a
ulations to compute the cumulative
building. The total number of potential subscribers making use of solar power in Beirut
fraction based on the work of Sfeir
𝑁𝑁𝑡𝑡 = ∑𝑘𝑘 𝑁𝑁𝑘𝑘 , was also computed and compared with the total number of subscribers Ns.
hat mapped out the global horizontal
Similarly, we calculated Nk and Nt corresponding to the direct normal irradiation 𝐼𝐼𝑘𝑘𝑑𝑑 .
software used for statistical analysis,
ϯ͘Ϯ ZĞƐƵůƚƐĂŶĚŝƐĐƵƐƐŝŽŶ
he interactive solar map (Figure 6).
popup message appears containing
Using the
adiation Solar
𝐼𝐼 ℎ , the Analyst
average of ArcGIS,
daily direct we ran monthly simulations to compute the cumulative
𝑘𝑘
yearly irradiation Beirut receives by varying its diffuse fraction based on the work of Sfeir
(1981). The results were retrieved in the form of rasters that mapped out the global horizontal
as well as the direct normal irradiations, read in RStudio, a software used for statistical analysis,
and overlaid on top of the buildings' shapefile, to create the interactive
12 solar map (Figure 6).
12
When a building's polygon is clicked on the map, a popup message appears containing

arinformation
Map, aboutavailable
the average dailyat global horizontal irradiation 𝐼𝐼𝑘𝑘 , the average daily direct
ℎ

normal irradiation 𝑑𝑑
, andproduced
their corresponding Nk1 12
ngram/Mapzen map 𝐼𝐼𝑘𝑘was
ducational purposes, and is available
Figure 6
/35.4947.
The Beirut Solar Map available online at:
http://beirutsolarmap.cnrs.edu.lb/beirutsolarmap/

1
Together with the Beirut Solar Map, available at
http://beirutsolarmap.cnrs.edu.lb/BeirutSolarMap/, a Tangram/Mapzen map was produced
showing an animation of the buildings’ shadow dance for educational purposes, and is available
2 Together with the Beirut Solar Map, available at http://
at http://s-najem.github.io/Beirut-Solar-Map/#15/33.8913/35.4947.
beirutsolarmap.cnrs.edu.lb/BeirutSolarMap/, a Tangram/Mapzen map
was produced showing an animation of the buildings’ shadow dance
for educational purposes, and is available at http://s-najem.github.io/
Beirut-Solar-Map/#15/33.8913/35.4947.

11
 Assessing Solar PV’s Potential in Lebanon / 13

1500
Electricity Consumption in GWh

1450
1400
1350
1300
1250
1200
1150
1100
1050
Figure 7
1000 Variation in Beirut’s electricity
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 consumption
Year
Training/Cross-Validated Predicted

The value predicted for 2016 is 1424 GWh. It is Table 1

compared with Shfk for different PV efficiencies
Comparison of rooftop solar PV performance in Beirut as a
and varying fractions of the available rooftop area.
function of panel efficiency and fk in 2016
Results are shown in Table 1. Table 1 also shows
the corresponding monetary savings from energy PERCENTAGE OF SOLAR POWER PRODUCTION FROM THE
generation assuming the cost of 1 kWh is 118.32 TOTAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN 2016
LBP/$0.08 USD, and the savings in terms of CO2
Єk fk= 0.3 fk= 0.8
emissions, considering an emission factor of 0.65
tCO2/MWh (LCEC 2012). 10 8% 23%
The average daily global horizontal was estimated
15 13% 34%
to be around 2000 Wh/m2, while that given by
UNDP (2005) is 4855 Wh/m2. This discrepancy can EXPECTED POTENTIAL SAVINGS FROM PV INSTALLATIONS IN
be explained by the fact that our simulation took 2016 (MILLION USD)
into account the urban setting and the buildings’ Єk
fk= 0.3 fk= 0.8
overshadowing, whereas the Climatic Zoning values
are measured from a few installed stations as well as 10 9.11 26.21
the BRSS, where insolation is minimally affected by
neighboring buildings, if at all. 15 14.81 38.73

The number of subscribers predicted for 2016 using EXPECTED POTENTIAL REDUCTION IN CO2 EMISSIONS FROM
PV INSTALLATIONS IN 2016 (TCO2 )
Equation 2, is Ns=172,114 and the corresponding
Figure 6 The Beirut Solar Map
average energy use is estimated to be U=8,432 kWh/ Єk fk= 0.3 fk= 0.8
The expected
year. total solar
Subsequently, power
Nk for from thewas
each building yearly global horizontal irradiations Sh is (4153 × 𝜖𝜖𝑘𝑘 )
computed
and added to the interactive map. Nt is then computed 10 74,048 212,888
GWh, where 𝜖𝜖𝑘𝑘 is
for different andtaken
fk andto be 10-15
compared percent.
to N s. These powers are calculated as follows: 𝑆𝑆ℎ =
15 120,328 314,704
∑𝑘𝑘Our
𝐴𝐴𝑘𝑘 𝐼𝐼𝑘𝑘simulation
ℎ shows
𝜖𝜖𝑘𝑘 . In order that solar these
to evaluate energyfindings,
can coverwe compare it to the total predicted electricity
8-34 percent of Beirut’s energy demand and be
consumption inthe
accessible to Beirut,
samegiven by theofmaximum
percentage likelihood model (Equation 1) shown in Figure
subscribers,
depending on the rooftop free-area and the panel
7. The blue line
efficiency. is the fitthe
Accordingly, of yearly
the maximum
monetarylikelihood
savings model that minimizes the test error.
could range from around $9 M to nearly $40 M,
and the consequent CO2 emissions saving could
range from 74,048 tCO2 to 322,660 tCO2. The
rather conservative lower bound of 8 percent can
accordingly contribute 71 percent of the target to
generate 160 GWh from distributed solar PV by 2020,
while the upper bound of 34 percent can exceed the
target by 3 times.
14 / Working Paper

4. UTILITY-SCALE SOLAR PV

In the previous section, we have discussed the
potential of distributed solar PV through results
generated by the Beirut Solar Map. In this section, we
examine the potential for large, utility-scale solar PV
farms. The NREAP for 2016-2020 draws a pathway to
achieve the announced target of 12 percent of RE by
2020. This includes a target of installing 150 MW of
large centralized solar PV systems. These are defined
as having capacities of 1 MW or more and not being
connected for local consumption but exported to the
national grid (LCEC, 2016b). The LCEC considers this
target to be realistic however, in this section we show
that this target underestimates the true potential for
such plans and could be improved. First, ignoring the
possibility of storage, we aim to identify the amount
of resources required to cover the daily peak load in
both the winter and summer seasons in Lebanon, and
compare it to the national targets.
4.1 Daily Load
The latest daily load curve data available is from
2006, showing a typical day in January and another
in June (World Bank, 2009). We manipulated this
data accounting for the energy demand growth rate
from 2006 until 2016, assuming the daily trend of
consumption is similar. The average annual growth
rate between 2008 and 2014 is estimated to be
around 8 percent (see Figure 2). The resulting load
curve for 2016 is shown in Figure 8.
We are interested in the peak demand during daylight
time. This time is around 10 hours in January from 7am
until 5pm, while it is around 14 hours in June from
6am until 8pm (Comair, 2009). Therefore, the peak
load is the area under the curve between the daylight
times for the respective curves, minus the base load
between these times. Results are shown in Table 2.
Table 2
Daily day loads in 2016 (in MWh)
DAY TOTAL DAY BASE DAY PEAK
LOAD LOAD LOAD
January 34,073 23,900 10,173
June 46,887 33,776 13,111
Therefore, our target is to cover 10,000-13,000 MWh of
daily peak load during the day. On the other hand, the
official targets estimate the energy output subsequent
of implementing 150 MW of solar PV to be 252,228
MWh/year, which is equivalent to an average of 691.2
MWh/day. This is only between 5 and 7 percent of the
day peak load. Covering the daily peak load using solar
PV would supply around 14 percent of the total energy
demand by 2020, compared to the national target of
12 percent using all sorts of RE technologies. It is true
that solar PV is only one part of the plan described in
the NREAP. However, it has the lowest LCOE and the
shortest payback period among other RE technologies
(LCEC, 2016b).

4000
3900
3800
3700
3600
3500
3400
3300
3200
3100
(MW)

3000
2900
2800
2700
2600
2500
2400
2300
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Hours

June January

Figure 8
Daily load curve for Lebanon in 2016
een 5 and 7 percent of the day peak load. By covering daily peak-load using
upply around 14 percent of the total energy demand by 2020, compared to the
12 percent using all sorts of RE technologies. It is true that solar PV is only Assessing Solar PV’s Potential in Lebanon / 15
n described in the NREAP. However, it has the lowest LCOE and the shortest
mong other RE technologies (LCEC, 2016b).

ƵƌĐĞƐĂŶĚ&ĞĂƐŝďŝůŝƚLJ
4.2 Resources and Feasibility Table 4
The two factors that are the most important and critical
that are the in
most Area requirements for installing solar PV farms
the important and critical
case of Lebanon for theindeployment
the case ofofLebanon
large- for the
ge-scale solarscale solar are
PV farms PV farms are land availability
land availability and cost. and cost. PARAMETERS JANUARY JUNE
To estimate land requirements, the following formula
requirements,isthe following formula Energy Yield (MWh) 10,173 13,119
used (CEDRO, 2016):is used (CEDRO, 2016):
GHI (kWh/m2/day) 2.4485 7.2034
𝐸𝐸 = 𝐴𝐴 × 𝜀𝜀 × 𝐼𝐼 × 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 (4) (4)
Performance Ratio 0.85 0.85
2
tual energy yield
Where(MWh), A isactual
E is the the PVenergy
activeyield
area (m ), 𝜀𝜀 isAthe
(MWh), PV conversionEfficiency
is the 0.16 0.16
PV active area (m 2
), Є is the PV conversion efficiency
2
is the average daily horizontal solar irradiation (MWh/m ), and PR is theArea (km2)
(percent), I is the average daily horizontal solar 30.55 13.38
o accounting for losses and
irradiation deviation
(MWh/m 2 fromPR
), and standard testing conditions.
is the performance ratio
accounting for losses and deviation from standard
testing conditions.
f daily total horizontal solar insolation for the months of January and June in Assuming installed plants have efficiency of 21percent,
the required area would significantly decrease to 25.7
in Lebanon are Average
shown values
in tableof3 daily
belowtotal horizontal
(UNDP, 2005).solar
The insolation
different regions
km2 in January and 11.26 km2 for June, for the same
for the months of January and June in different regions
ues of insolation. Accordingly, an average value of the(UNDP,
different regions wasenergy yield.
in Lebanon are shown in Table 3 below 2005).
ations. The different regions show similar values of insolation. The required capacity of the solar farm is calculated
Accordingly, an average value of the different regions by dividing the actual energy yield by the number of
was
tal insolation values for used in the calculations.
Lebanon daylight hours. To cover the winter day peak load, the
day Beirut TheBayssour required capacity is 1,018 MW, while that of summer
efficiencyQartaba Zahleto beCedars
factor is taken 16 percentAverage
as the
2,388 average
2,504 2,472 2,522crystalline
2,357 solar 2,449 time is around 937 MW. Since the capacity needed
value of commercial panels,
for the winter case is greater, it will be considered
which have the highest global market share with
as the target for the following discussion. Therefore,
around 90 percent (IEA, 2014). However, efficiency is
this capacity can cover even more than the day peak
expected to further improve and contribute in a major
load during summer and contribute to the base load
way to less prices and more yield per area (Gielen et
generation. This is approximately an excess of 1,133
al., 2016). The16
best achieved commercial efficiency of
MWh, which is enough to cover around 3 percent of the
crystalline solar panels currently exceeds 21 percent
baseload during the day in June.
(IEA, 2014), while its global average is expected
to reach 21 percent by 2025 (Gielen et al., 2016).
According to IEA (2014), a well-designed PV plant
can achieve a yearly average PR of 80 to 90 percent.
Therefore, we will assume a yearly average of 85
percent. This is in line with the tested value reported
by LCEC (2016b) for the BRSS plant during the month
of April, which is 88 percent. Parameters and results
for 2016 are given in Table 4.

Table 3
Global horizontal insolation values for Lebanon (Wh/m2/day)

BEIRUT BAYSSOUR QARTABA ZAHLE CEDARS AVERAGE

January 2,388 2,504 2,472 2,522 2,357 2,449

June 7,192 7,210 7,193 7,211 7,211 7,203
16 / Working Paper
4.2.1 Cost Analysis
The major barrier usually considered for building
solar PV farms is the upfront cost. However, the global
weighted average utility-scale solar PV costs have
declined greatly from around 5,000 USD/kW in 2009
to 1,800 USD/kW in 2015. They are further expected
to fall by 57 percent to 790 USD/kW in 2025 (Gielen
et al., 2016). Accordingly, the required investment
for building 1,018 MW of solar PV would cost around
$1.83 billion, assuming the full capacity is built in the
current prices. However, if Lebanon decided to adopt
an ambitious expansion plan of solar PV, this will likely
be multi-phased, i.e., benefiting from potential cost
reduction in the future. On the other hand, the cost
required to build coal-fired and natural gas power
plants is about 3,000 USD/kW and 1,200 USD/kW
respectively (Gielen et al., 2016). Therefore, a plan to
build gas-fired plants with the same capacity would
cost around $1.22 billion.
A conventional way to look at costs is to conduct a
levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) analysis. It follows
from the standard discounted cash flow method
which considers the time-value of money. It is used to
calculate the life cycle cost of producing electricity by
different technologies. For solar PV, the parameters
we used and the results are presented in Table 5.
PV modules are usually guaranteed for a lifetime of
25 years at a minimum of 80 percent of their rated
output (IEA, 2014), thus the annual degradation of
1 percent. Operations costs, mainly maintenance
costs, are typically around 1 percent of the capital
cost (Gielen et al., 2016). Sensitivity analysis is
also considered, accounting for falling capital
cost and improved efficiency for 2025 assuming
the same capacity is planned. It should be noted
that a relatively high value of discount rate of 10
percent has been chosen for this analysis, reflecting
Lebanon’s poor credit rating.3
3 Ten percent discount rate is perhaps a bit conservative value for
Lebanon as Lebanon’s current credit rating is B- according to S&P,
which is higher than the investment grade rating of BBB-, however the
existence of political risks could play a role in deterring investors.
Table 5
Levelized cost of electricity for solar PV in 2016 and 2025
TECHNOLOGY ASSUMPTIONS 2016 2025
Project size (MW) 1,017 1,017
Investment cost ($/kW) 1,800 790
Annual load factor 25% 25%
Discount rate 10% 10%
Lifetime 25 25
Annual degradation 1% 1%
Operations cost 1% 1%
Fuel cost ($/kWh) 0 0
Levelized cost of electricity (USC/kWh) 10.69 4.74
The cost of electricity generation by EDL reached 22.73
USC/kWh in 2014 (BlomInvest Bank, 2015) with the
highest contribution coming from the fuel bill (Bassil,
2010). Therefore, employing solar energy using PV
farms would generate savings of around $500 million/
year with a 10 percent discount rate. This would result
in a payback period of not more than four years, based
on an assumption of covering the daily peak demand
with fuel oil rather than solar PV in 2014 prices, noting
that only around 70 percent of the whole demand is
covered by EDL generation (Figure 2).
Clearly, oil price is a major parameter in any comparative
analysis of renewables vis-à-vis fossil fuel electricity
generation. Bassil (2010) reports the cost of electricity
generation by EDL was equal to 17.14 USC/kWh in
2009. Comparing the current prices of oil with that
of 2009, it is approximately in the same range. As
a result, the savings according to today’s oil prices
would be around $275 million/year. The payback
period could therefore be longer. Similarly, huge
savings of CO2 emissions can be achieved summing up
to around 2.76 MtCO2/year, considering an emission
factor of 0.65 tCO2/MWh (LCEC, 2012).
The aforementioned analysis did not include the cost
of land. According to LCEC (2016b), the cost of land
varies significantly across Lebanon, ranging from 2.5
USD/m2 to 40 USD/m2. The variation is dependent on
the proximity to urban areas, roads, touristic sites,
water bodies, and other factors. Therefore, for an area
of around 30 km2, this would consequently result in a
cost of land required for building solar PV plants ranging
from $75 million to $1.2 billion. However, focusing
on land with lower values, we expect the cost to range
between $75 million to $300 million.

5. DISCUSSION
5.1 Potential Locations for Solar PV Farms in Lebanon
Figure 9 shows the areas with the best technical and
economic viability, and the least environmental and
social drawbacks. The total suitable area is around
148 km2 of Lebanon’s total area (10,452 km2), with 61
km2 having the highest irradiation levels (2265 kWh/
m2). This is twice as much as required in our study. This
total area excludes areas exposed to hazards such as
landslides, fires, earthquakes and floods. Additionally,
agricultural land, forestry, historical sites, wetland
and water bodies, slopes of more than 10 degrees,
Assessing Solar PV’s Potential in Lebanon / 17
non-south facing slopes, and land areas of less than
10,000 m2 (to be able to cater at least 1 MW), were all
omitted. Moreover, a 5km wide strip along the shore
was not considered to prevent the high cost of land,
while a 5km buffer zone within all urban settlements
was considered to reduce the cost of transmission and
distribution and stay close to electrical substations.
Finally, the remaining areas were overlaid with the
irradiation map to identify the locations with the best
technical potential.
Figure 9
Filtered potential
land areas for solar
PV farms in Lebanon
18 / Working Paper

In this context, Assi et al. (2016) propose integrating
solar PV panels with existing thermal power plants,
which has already been implemented in the Zahrani
power plant, while taking as case studies the Zouk
and Jiyeh power plants. This would lead to increased
generating capacity, greener power plants, cheap
unused land made available for use, and downsized
storage cost (Assi et al., 2016).
5.2 Future Cost Reductions
Solar systems have encountered a big revolution in the
past years with the global installed capacity increasing
from 40 GW in 2010 to 227 GW in 2015 (Gielen et al.,
2016). This is mainly due to the plummeting costs
of these systems. These costs have reduced by more
than half in the past years, with instances reaching
as low as 1200 USD/kW in India, and are further
expected to fall in the coming few years by more than
50 percent. The projected decline can be attributed
to a combination of technological innovation driven
by global competition, economies of scale, and the
learning curve (IEA, 2014). Moreover, solar systems
accounted for 20 percent of the total installed capacity
built in 2015 with a typical cost ranging between 6
and 10 USC/kWh, while the weighted average LCOE
for solar PV was 13 USC/kWh in 2015 (Gielen et al.,
2016). However, further lower prices can be found
(Figure 10) with a recent example from the United Arab
Emirates with a record bid of 2.42 USC/kWh submitted
to build a 365 MW plant in Abu Dhabi (Bloomberg,
2016a).
The LCOE for solar PV systems has already reached
below retail electricity prices in several countries such
as Australia, Denmark, Italy and Spain, providing
additional incentives for consumers to build
decentralized systems and consume the electricity
they generate (IEA, 2014). The cost of solar PV is
getting closer to the cost of electricity generation
from traditional sources, particularly due to the
strict air pollution standards on new coal plants, the
increasing safety standards on new nuclear plants,
and the varying prices of natural gas for new gas
plants (IEA, 2014). Comparing to coal and gas-fired
power plants, its global weighted average LCOE range
is between 5 and 10 USC/kWh (Gielen et al., 2016).
For instance, the previous record low bid of 2.99 USC/
kWh in Dubai is even a third less than the cost of
electricity generation by a coal plant commissioned
recently there (Bloomberg, 2016b). Therefore, with the
projected price fall of solar PV for 2025, it is expected
to become the cheapest form of power generation.

New Low Solar Bids 2013-2016

9 8.5
8 7.1
7
5.8 5.84 5.71
6
5 4.9 4.85
5 4.5
4 3.95 3.7 3.65 3.6
4
2.99 2.91
3 2.42
2
1
0

Figure 10 Subsidized Price (USC per kWh) Unsubsidized Price (USC per kWh)

New low solar bids 2013-2016 (Adapted from Cleantechnica,

Figure 2016)

5.3 Financing Solar PV Farms in Lebanon
Looking at the economics of solar PV, project costs
are not the only variable, but it also depends on
the business model for financing and recovering
the revenues. Despite the decreasing cost of solar
PV systems, financial incentives are still needed to
support the deployment of this technology, not only
because it is capital intensive, but also because
it is more sensitive to investment risks due to the
technology and resource uncertainties and the lack
of a long-term price visibility (Abdmouleh et al.,
2015; IEA, 2014). The risk is highlighted by the high
discount rate which can overburden investments
unnecessarily as it may not reflect the actual project
risk (Sgouridis et al., 2016). Also, comparing to
conventional methods of energy generation, RE
projects are usually smaller in scale thus could not
always benefit from economies of scale (Abdmouleh
et al., 2015). However, models such as build-operate-
transfer (BOT) or build-own-operate (BOO) can
decrease the chosen discount rate to reflect the true
project risk at the utility scale (Sgouridis et al., 2016).
Funding can be obtained either from the public
sector or the private sector. Public sector funds
are provided by the governments to invest in RE
projects either through grants or low-interest loans.
The main facilitators of investments in solar PV
are governments providing low-interest loans and
available lands. Private sector funds, on the other
hand, are provided from banks or other financial
institutions. These play an important role in the long-
term commercialization of RE.
A common model used for rooftop applications is
leasing where households can install the systems
without upfront costs, but are required to pay a
monthly fee cheaper than the electricity tariff of the
grid (Gielen et al., 2016). However, this model is losing
ground to long-term loans (Gielen et al., 2016). Other
incentives include the widespread policies of FiT and
net-metering, which are currently being scrutinized
upon the reduced costs and increased deployment of
PV systems (IEA, 2014).
For utility-scale RE projects, the most common model
is the power purchase agreement (PPA). A PPA is a
legal contract between two parties, a power purchaser,
often a state-owned utility, and a selling privately-
owned electricity producer, usually lasting between 15
and 30 years (Beshara, 2012). The agreement includes
provisions for start and termination dates, capacity
and output, operations and metering, and the rates for
electricity (Beshara, 2012). Mechanisms to regulate
this can be done mainly through FiT or a tendering
process, i.e., competitive bidding (Abdmouleh et
Assessing Solar PV’s Potential in Lebanon / 19
al., 2015). The latter system is the most favorable
system as it encourages competition resulting in cost
reduction via market-based pricing. However, the risk
emerges with unsustainable price bids. PPA is part of
any BOT, BOO or BOOT model for power generation
projects to be implemented by an IPP (Beshara, 2012).
Long-term PPAs have a key role in making RE projects
successful in terms of financing and profitability, as
it secures long-term revenue stream for a BOT or a
concession project for an IPP from the sale of energy
produced, and provides guarantees that this energy
is needed by the purchaser (Beshara, 2012). In
practical terms, if RE projects are to be done through
competitive bidding, the request for proposals should
include a PPA model as proposed by the purchaser
(Beshara, 2012).
Looking at countries around Lebanon, the model
frequently used for building utility-scale solar
plants is a partnership between the public and
private sectors. PPAs with tendering process is
employed for privately-owned plants, in addition to
international loans or grants for state-owned plants
and decentralized systems. For instance, the latest
projects in the UAE were based on long-term PPAs
(Bloomberg, 2016b), while low borrowing costs
supported the low record bid (Bloomberg, 2016a).
Jordan, with its ambitious targets for renewables,
is also expanding its RE capacity by PPAs through
IPP tendering which is receiving low bids. By
September 2014, the Jordan Ministry of Energy and
Mineral Resources has signed 12 agreements to
develop solar power projects (Calabrese, 2015). For
instance, the largest solar plant in Jordan, Shams
Ma’an, is a privately developed and owned plant,
which has signed a 20-year PPA with the Jordanian
electricity authority (ShamsMaan, 2016). Accordingly,
Jordan has received loans from the European
Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD),
which has financed 4 out of 12 solar PV plants in
Jordan (Zgheib, 2016). Other funders include the
International Finance Corporation (IFC), the Dutch
Development Bank, and the Europe Arab Bank (IFC,
2016). Jordan has also implemented the net-metering
policy to incentivize rooftop applications, and has
received funds from the French Development Agency
to support the transmission capacity (MESIA, 2016).
In Morocco, the largest solar power plant in the
world under construction, has received funding from
the African Development Bank, Climate Investment
Fund, and the World Bank (Calabrese, 2015) for
building CSP facilities reaching 510 MW in 3 stages,
while it initiated an IPP-based program for PV
facilities totaling 170 MW (MESIA, 2016). Egypt, on
the other hand, has resorted to the FiT mechanism
20 / Working Paper

to support RE projects, while also receiving funds Technically, there are several solutions for managing
from multilateral financial institutions including the the intermittency of solar power and other variable
IFC, the EBRD, and the Overseas Private Investment renewable energies. These include the creation
Corporation (OPIC) (MESIA, 2016). of flexible mix for electricity generation, grid
interconnections, demand-side management,
The legal framework in Lebanon, including the
electricity storage, oversizing generation capacity,
Electricity Sector Policy Paper and law 462 and its
forecasting the weather, and using non-variable
amendments, supports the inclusion of the private
energy sources such as hydropower to fill temporary
sector through the IPP and PPA models. This allows
gaps in supply. Reliable daily and seasonal weather
Lebanon to be ready for public-private partnerships to
forecasting can reduce the cost of operating solar PV
increase the solar power capacity through utility-scale
by $0.01-0.02/kWh (Delucchi and Jacobson, 2011),
projects. However, no permits for IPPs have been given
providing an opportunity to optimize the energy
by the government yet to build utility-scale projects,
system (Abdullah et al., 2015). Interconnections of
as per the process described earlier. More recently
geographically dispersed facilities allow smoothing
though, a call for expression of interest was launched
out the effects of variability of solar PV over large
by the MoEW to build several solar farms by the private
areas due to passing clouds, thus enabling flexible
sector with a total of 120 to 180 MW, in addition to
sharing of power generation (Delucchi and Jacobson,
rooftop systems on ten public buildings (El Khoury,
2011). It is also important to avoid setting up high
2016). Moreover, in support of decentralized PV
solar PV capacities in areas with low power demand
projects, NEEREA loans are offered by most commercial
and relatively weak distribution grids where variability
banks in collaboration with BDL covering 100 percent
may cause voltage problems, create reverse power
of the proposed system price with low interest rate
flows, and lead to large grid congestions (IEA,
for up to 14 years. However, a lack of awareness of
2014). Therefore, in addition to interconnections, a
the existence of such supporting schemes and of the
smart grid and grid codes would help drive inverters
falling prices of PV systems is evident as per a survey
to automatically provide voltage control and
by Greenpeace (2016), showing that more than 65
frequency regulation (IEA, 2014). The network grid
percent of respondents do not know of the existence of
in Lebanon already lacks grid codes and sufficient
the NEEREA scheme and the net-metering policy, while
interconnections, but there are current works
60 percent attributed their unwillingness to install PV
and plans to implement it in scope of expanding
systems to their high cost.
renewable energy generation (LCEC, 2016b). Grid
5.4 Dealing with Intermittency proximity was also considered when setting up the
Our analysis considers generation during daylight potential locations map in Figure 9, making these
hours which aims to cover the energy peak load during locations close to urban settlements and electricity
these times, and therefore does not include the substations and in line with the existing grid network
possibility of storage for night generation. However, to reduce the transportation cost and keep the
even during the day and throughout the seasons, possibility for storage.
solar energy may still encounter intermittency due to
The MENA region provides an advantage for employing
weather conditions such as cloud cover or snow. In our
solar PV to supply the peak load given the natural
analysis, we presented estimations for the required
overlap of power demand for cooling and the solar
capacity for both winter and summer seasons, hence
power supply when the sun is out (Abdullah et al.,
accounting for different solar irradiation levels and
2015). The complementary nature of renewable
total peak load required. Accordingly, we considered
energy sources is another advantage which can be
the maximum of these two, i.e., the capacity required
considered. For instance, when the sun is not shining,
to cover the load in the winter. In addition, EDL
the wind is often blowing, and vice versa. Therefore,
currently provides less than 70 percent of the energy
solar PV plants can be complemented with existing
demand with blackouts reaching 8 hours on average.
hydropower and wind power facilities set to be
Thus, any additional source of generation would be
implemented in Lebanon.
considered a plus at the moment, even with prospects
of intermittency and variability, rather than being a
waste or a destabilizer.
 Assessing Solar PV’s Potential in Lebanon / 21

5.5 Political Stability and Governance

A strong political support is required to fulfill
commitments in terms of RE targets. This support
includes regulatory frameworks and financial schemes
mentioned earlier, which are relatively adequate
in Lebanon now. However, political continuity is
not usually sustained between governmental or
parliamentary terms, where a new minister can
decide to discard his or her predecessor’s work
and plans, particularly if he or she belonged to
an opposing political party. Moreover, the lack
of transparency in governance and particularly in
bidding processes in all the sectors managed by the
Lebanese authorities, such as the telecommunication
and waste management sectors, is a barrier to the
trustworthy involvement of the local or international
private sector in partnerships with the public sector.
Additionally, political stability is required for a safe
investment environment, not only for the private
sector, but also for international fund support. For
instance, the political stalemate in the country in
recent years has delayed the agreements of loans from
the World Bank reaching €1 billion euros and led to
losing other loans from France (AFP, 2015). Therefore,
international financial support, similar to that given
to neighboring Jordan or Egypt, may be at risk anytime
due to unexpected political deadlocks. Even further,
any new legislation or policy in support may be
hindered due to political problems or an institutional
vacuum. Political interests can also be a barrier in the
case of heavy energy subsidies that are decreasing
the competitiveness of RE. This is the case when
politicians are not able to remove these subsidies
partially or gradually, to push for a wider use of RE
fearing from public anger, although it is mentioned in
the reforms of the Electricity Sector Policy Paper.
Another challenge is the regional turmoil surrounding
Lebanon, particularly near the eastern borders with
Syria. Figure 9 shows that the area of land with
the highest irradiation level, although barren and
technically sound, are concentrated very close to the
eastern border. This constitutes a practical barrier and
a high-level security threat to the implementation of
solar PV projects in these locations.
22 / Working Paper

6. CONCLUSION AND POLICY

RECOMMENDATIONS
This paper presented a holistic view of the potential through partnerships between the public and the
of solar PV in Lebanon, covering distributed rooftop private sectors through the long-term purchasing
systems and utility-scale projects. The analysis power agreement models, in addition to grants and
showed that Lebanese policy-makers underestimate loans from international donors and multilateral
the role that solar power could play to improve financial institutions. Lebanon’s legal framework
Lebanon’s energy security, lower its energy bill and is ready to include the private sector in production
reduce the environmental impact of using fossil in partnership with the public sector. Nonetheless,
fuels for electricity generation. While Lebanon’s LCEC Lebanon remains vulnerable to political instability
considers the current national targets as realistic, the which might constitute a barrier to the wide
analyses presented in this paper showed that solar deployment of PV systems and the advancement of
PV alone could at least cover the daily peak load, the electricity sector.
being technically and economically sound. Further
technological improvements and further substantial
reduction in PV module prices would actually make
such prospects more promising.
In terms of practical steps, we propose that Lebanon
can build a capacity of around 1,000 MW of solar
PV. This capacity can be divided between large-scale
solar farms and distributed (rooftop) solar PV, with
the majority of production coming from solar farms.
The Beirut Solar Map analysis presented in Section
3 concludes that a minimum of 114 GWh/year can
be generated using rooftop application in Beirut
alone, while the maximum can reach 484 GWh/year.
A full deployment of these applications in Beirut
only can contribute by around 12 percent to the total
load targeted. Even under conservative estimates,
assuming a 50 percent deployment scenario, rooftop
solar PV systems can contribute 6 percent of the
load. However, this would incur additional costs as
rooftop applications do not benefit from economies of
scale, and are thus more expensive than utility-scale
installations, even though grid savings can balance
the difference.
As proposed above, this paper advocates large
expansion of solar PV farms in Lebanon. Our
preliminary location screener showed that Lebanon
can at least have 10 suitable locations to build
such projects. The screening methodology included
several constraints such as the avoidance of
steep topographies, shores, and hazard zones
susceptible to earthquakes, fires, landslides, and
floods in addition to favoring locations with areas
exceeding 10,000 m2 lying in the vicinity of the
urban settlements. These respectively guarantee
the generation capacity of at least 1MW and low
transportation costs. However, further improvements
to the grid may be required to be able to handle the
full capacity targeted. Financing can be obtained

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 Assessing Solar PV’s Potential in Lebanon / 5

ABOUT
THE PROGRAM
Energy Policy and Security in the Middle East Program
The Energy Policy and Security in the Middle East Program at the Issam Fares Institute
for Public Policy and International Affairs was launched in 2016 as a Middle East-based,
interdisciplinary, platform to examine, inform and impact energy and security policies,
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the shift towards alternative energy sources with focus on nuclear power and the Middle East.
The Program has been established with a seed grant support from the John D. and Catherine
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Inaugurated in 2006, the Institute aims to harness, develop, and initiate policy-relevant
research in the Arab region.

We are committed to expanding and deepening policy-relevant knowledge

production in and about the Arab region; and to creating a space for the interdisciplinary
exchange of ideas among researchers, civil society and policy-makers.
Main goals
▸▸ Enhancing and broadening public policy-related debate and knowledge production in the
Arab world and beyond
▸▸ Better understanding the Arab world within shifting international and global contexts
▸▸ Providing a space to enrich the quality of interaction among scholars, officials and civil
society actors in and about the Arab world
▸▸ Disseminating knowledge that is accessible to policy-makers, media, research communities
and the general public

AUB Policy Institute (Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs)
American University of Beirut
Issam Fares Institute Building (Green Oval)
P.O.Box 11-0236 Riad El-Solh I Beirut, Lebanon
961-1-350000 ext. 4150
+961-1-737627
ifi@aub.edu.lb
www.aub.edu.lb/ifi
aub.ifi
@ifi_aub