PROBABILITY

Important Terms:
Sample Space (S) – is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.
Sample Point or Point – is the possible outcome or element of the set.

Note:
n(S) = number of all possible
outcomes

a. Experiment: Tossing a Coin

Head

There are 2 possible outcomes

Tail
when 1 coin is tossed. Hence,
n(S) = 2.

S = {h , t}
b. Experiment: Tossing Two Coins

1st coin 2nd t coin

Head, Head

Tail, Tail
There are 4 possible outcomes when 2 coins
are tossed. Hence, n(S) = 4.
Head, Tail

Tail, Head

S = { (h, h), (t , t), (h, t), (t, t)}

c. Experiment: Rolling a Die

There are 6 possible outcomes when a die is
rolled. Hence, n(S) = 46.

S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) A die has 6 faces numbered from 1 to 6.

Event (E) – is any subset of a sample space.
Note:
n(E) = number of ways the event will happen
a. Experiment: Tossing a Coin
1. The event that a “head” appears
E = {h }
2. The event that a “tail” appears
E = {t}
Illustration:
The number of event that a head appears is 1. Hence, n(E) = 1

The number of event that a tail appears is 1. Hence, n(E) = 1

b. Experiment: Tossing Two Coins
1. The event that a “head” appears in the first coin
E = { (h, h), (h,t }
Illustration:
There are 2 ways the event
will happen. Thus n(E) = 2.


2. The event that a “no head” appears
E = {t, t}

There is only 1 way the event

will happen. Thus n(E) = 1.


c. Experiment: Rolling a Die
1. The event of getting a “3”
E = {3}

2. The event that the number shown is odd

E = {1, 3, 5} There are 3 ways the event will happen. Thus n(E) = 3.


  

When we say "Event" we mean one (or more) outcomes.

 Getting a Tail when tossing a coin is an event.
 Rolling a "5" is an event.
 Choosing a "King" from a deck of cards (any of the 4 Kings) is also an event.
 Rolling an "even number" (2, 4 or 6) is an event.
Events can be:
1. Independent (each event is not affected by other events),

Examples above are considered independent.

2. Dependent (also called "Conditional", where an event is affected by other events)

Example: Drawing 2 cards from a Deck

After taking one card from the deck there are less cards available, so the probabilities

change!

Experiment: Getting a King in a Deck of Cards.

For the 1st card the chance of drawing a King is 4 out of 52.

But for the 2nd card:

 If the 1st card was a King, then the 2nd card is less likely to be a King, as only 3 of the 51 cards
left are Kings.

 If the 1st card was not a King, then the 2nd card is slightly more likely to be a King, as 4 of the
51 cards left are King.

This is because we are removing cards from the deck.

 3. Mutually Exclusive (events can't happen at the same time)

It is either one or the other, but not both

Examples:

 Turning left or right are Mutually Exclusive (you can't do both at the same time)

 Heads and Tails are Mutually Exclusive

 Kings and Aces are Mutually Exclusive

What isn't Mutually Exclusive?

 Kings and Hearts are not Mutually Exclusive, because we can have a King of Hearts!

Like here:
Probability

The probability of an event is a number describing the chance that the event will happen.
 An event that is certain to happen has a probability of 1.
 An event that cannot possibly happen has a probability of zero.
 If there is a chance that an event will happen, then its probability is between zero and 1.

Events that are certain:

1. If it is Thursday, the probability that tomorrow is Friday is certain, therefore the probability is 1.

2. If you are sixteen, the probability of you turning seventeen on your next birthday is 1. This is a certain
event.

Events that are uncertain:

 The probability that tomorrow is Friday if today is Monday is 0.

 The probability that you will be seventeen on your next birthday, if you were just born is 0.
P (E) – Probability of an Event

Examples:
a. Experiment: Tossing a Coin
What is the probability of getting a tail?

S= {H,T} E={T}
n(S)=2 n(E)=1
n( E ) 1
P( E )  
n( S ) 2
The probability of a tail to show is ½.
b. Experiment: Tossing Two Coins
What is the probability of getting a “head” in the first coin?

S={(H,H), (T,T), (H,T), (T,H)} E={(H,H), (H,T)}

n(S)=4 n(E)=2
n( E ) 2 1
P( E )   or
n( S ) 4 2
The probability of getting a “head” in the first coin is 2/4 or ½.
c. Experiment: Rolling a Die
What is the probability of a “3” to appear?

S={1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} E={3}
n(S)=6 n(E)=1

n( E ) 1
P( E )  
n( S ) 6
The probability of a “3” to appear is 1/6.
Additional Examples
1. Two dice are rolled, find the probability that the sum is less than 13.
Solution:
The sample space S of two dice is shown below. There are 36 possible outcomes when 2 dice
are rolled. Hence, n(S) = 36.
S = { (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6)
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6)
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6)
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6) The highest sum is 12. Thus, all other paired
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6) } numbers have a sum less than 13. Hence, n(E) = 36.

n( E ) 36
P( E )   1
n( S ) 36
2. A die is rolled and a coin is tossed, find the probability that the die shows an odd number and the coin
shows a head.
Solution:
Let H be the head and T be the tail of the coin. The sample space S of the experiment described is as
follows:
S = { (1,H), (2,H), (3,H), (4,H), (5,H), (6,H), 1,T), (2,T), (3,T), (4,T), (5,T), (6,T)}

n(S)=12 There are 12 possible outcomes

when a die is rolled and a coin is
tossed. Hence, n(S) = 12.

Let E be the event "the die shows an odd number and the coin shows a head".
E= {(1,H), (3,H), (5,H)} Event E may be described as shown. Hence, n(E) = 3.

n(E)=3
n( E ) 3 1
P( E )   
n( S ) 12 4
3. A jar contains 3 red marbles, 7 green marbles and 10 white marbles. If a marble is drawn from the jar at
random, what is the probability that this marble is white?
Solution
We first construct a table of frequencies that gives the marbles color distributions as follows

Color Frequency
red 3
green 7
white 10
Total 20

n(S)=20
n(E)=10
n( E ) 10 1
P( E )   
n( S ) 20 2
The blood groups of 200 people is distributed as follows: 50 have type A blood, 65 have B blood type, 70
have O blood type and 15 have type AB blood. If a person from this group is selected at random, what is the
probability that this person has O blood type?
Solution
We construct a table of frequencies for the the blood groups as follows
Group Frequency

A 50

B 65

O 70

AB 15

Total 200
n(S)=200
n(E)=70
n( E ) 70 7
P( E )    or 0.35
n( S ) 200 20