Solutions Manual for Maintenance Replacement and Reliability Theory and Applications 2nd Edition Jardine

SOLUTIONS MANUAL FOR MAINTENANCE REPLACEMENT AND RELIABILITY
THEORY AND APPLICATIONS 2ND EDITION JARDINE
SOLUTIONS
SOLUTIONS MANUAL FOR MAINTENANCE REPLACEMENT AND RELIABILITY THEORY

AND APPLICATIONS 2ND EDITION JARDINE
Chapter 2: Component Replacement Decisions

Problem 1 The following table contains cumulative losses, total costs and
average monthly costs of operation for n = 1, 2, 3, 4. Here
Pn
Li + Rn
AC(n) = i=1
n
where Li stands for loss in productivity during year i with respect to the first
year’s productivity, Ri stands for replacement cost (constant)
Month Productivity Losses Replacement Total Cost Average Cost

1 10000 0 1200 1200 1200
2 9700 300 1200 1500 750
3 9400 600+300 1200 2100 700
4 8900 1100+600+300 1200 3200 800
Clearly, the optimal replacement time is 3 months since the pump is new.
Problem 2 One can use the model from section 2.5 (see 2.5.2). In this problem
Cp = 100, Cf = 200,
Z tp
tp 40000 − tp
R(tp ) = 1 − F (tp ) = 1 − f (z) dz = 1 − =
0 40000 40000
According to the model,
Cp R(tp ) + Cf (1 − R(tp ))
C(tp ) = =
tp R(tp ) + M (tp )(1 − R(tp ))
40000−tp tp
100 × 40000 + 200 × 40000 100(80000 + 2tp )
= 40000−tp R t =
tp × p
80000tp − t2p
40000 + 0 zf (z) dz


 0.0143 , tp = 10000

0.01 , tp = 20000
C(tp ) =
0.0093 , tp = 30000



0.01 , tp = 40000
Calculations above indicate that the optimal age is 30000 km.
Problem 3 Firstly, one can find f (t). Since the area below the probability
density curve is equal to 1, the area of each rectangle on the Figure 2.40 is 51 .
It follows then, that

 1
 25000 , t ∈ [0..15000]
2
f (t) = 25000 , t ∈ [15000..25000]


0 , elsewhere
Secondly,
Z (
tp t2p
, tp ∈ [0..15000]
M (tp )×(1−R(tp )) = zf (z) dz = 50000
150002
R tp z
0 50000 +2 15000 25000
dz , tp ∈ [15000..20000]
To find R(t) for the given values of tp one can use Figure 2.40 (R(t) is the
area under f (z) for z > t).
 

 500 , tp = 5000 
0.8 , tp = 5000

2000 

, tp = 10000 0.6 , tp = 10000
M (tp ) × (1 − R(tp )) = , R(tp ) =
 4500 , tp = 15000 


 0.4 , tp = 15000


11500 , tp = 20000 0 , tp = 20000
C R(t )+C (1−R(t ))

Using the suggested model C(tp ) = tp R(t
p p f p
p )+M (tp )(1−R(tp ))
for the given values
of Cf , Cp yields


 0.093 , tp = 5000

 0.067 , tp = 10000
C(tp ) =

 0.063 , tp = 15000


0.078 , tp = 20000
Therefore 15000 km is the optimal preventive replacement age.

 2
 10 , tp ∈ [0..2]
1
Problem 4 Similarly to Problem 3 f (tp ) = , tp ∈ [2..8]
 10

0 , elsewhere


 0.6 , tp = 2

0.4 , t = 4
p
From the graph R(tp ) =
0.2 , tp = 6



0 , tp = 8
Z (R t
tp p 2×z
M (tp ) × (1 − R(tp )) = zf (z) dz = R02 2×z10 dz R , tp ∈ [0..2]

=
t z
0 0 10
dz + 2 p 10 dz , tp ∈ [2..8]
( t2
p
10 , tp ∈ [0..2]
= t2p +4
20 , tp ∈ [2..8]
After substitutions, the suggested formula gives:



 0.9375 , tp = 2


Tp × R(tp ) + Tf × (1 − R(tp )) 0.7692 , tp = 4 Days
D(tp ) = =
tp × R(tp ) + M (tp ) × (1 − R(tp ))  0.7813 , tp = 6 M onth


0.8824 , tp = 8
Clearly, preventive replacement after 4 months of operation is the most prefer-

able.
Problem 5 For the uniform distribution over [0..20000]

(
1
, t ∈ [0..20000]
f (t) = 20000
0 , elsewhere
Similarly to the previous problems,



1 , tp < 0 Z tp
20000−tp t2p
R(tp ) = , tp ∈ [0..20000] , M (tp )×(1−R(tp )) = zf (z) dz =
 20000
 0 40000
0 , tp > 20000
Substitution of the given values of Dp and Df into the proposed equation gives:


0.00103 , tp = 5000
20000−tp tp 
0.0008
3× 20000 + 9× 20000 120000 + 12 × tp , tp = 10000
D(tp ) = 2 = =
20000−t
tp × 20000 p +
tp 2
40000 × tp − tp 0.0008
 , tp = 15000
40000 

0.0009 , tp = 20000
Hence, there are two equally preferable replacement ages among the given four.
Problem 6 Weibull paper analysis (Figure 1) gives estimations

µ = 49000 km, η = 55000 km, β = 1.7
Figure 1: Problem 6 Weibull plot

Using the Γ function table (see Appendix 7) and the formula
2 1
σ 2 = η 2 × [Γ(1 + ) − Γ2 (1 + )]
β β
gives
σ 2 = (55000)2 × [1.1765Γ(1.1765) − Γ2 (1.5882)] = 3025 × 106 × (1.0883 − 0.796) =

= 885.2 × 106
µ 49000
σ = 29753 km and therefore σ = 29753 = 1.65. Now we can proceed to Glasser’s
paper analysis (Figure 2)
Figure 2: Problem 6 Glasser’s graph
According to the graph ρ = 0.92, which means 8% of expected improvement,

and Z = −0.6. Furthermore,
tp = µ + Z × σ = 49000 − 0.6 × 29753 = 31148
Problem 7 Firstly, sort the data in increasing order
Hours 80 100 115 130 150 170 200

Days 3.33 4.17 4.79 5.42 6.25 7.08 8.33
Figure 3: Problem 7 Weibull plot
Figure 4: Problem 7 Glasser’s Block graph
Secondly, it is reasonable to assume that the data belongs to the Weibull

distribution. Then using the median ranks table (see Appendix 8) we get
Weibull graph (Figure 3). From Figure 3 β = 3, µ = 5.7 × 24 = 136.8,
η = 6.5 × 24 = 156.
Next
2 1
σ 2 = η 2 × [Γ(1 + ) − Γ2 (1 + )]
β β
and therefore σ 2 = (156)2 × [Γ(1.67) − Γ2 (1.33)] = 24336 × 0.1059 = 2576
C
σ = 50.75. Using the obtained result σµ = 50.75
136.8
= 2.7 and Cfp = 10
Figure 5: Problem 7 Glasser’s Age Graph
From Figures 4 and 5: Z = −1.5, ρ = 0.36, tp = 136.8 − 1.5 × 50.75 = 60.68

for Block replacement policy and Z = −1.55, ρ = 0.38, tp = 58.14 for age-based
replacement policy.
C
Problem 8 Using σµ = 20000 1000 = 20 and Cp = 2 and the Glasser’s graph
f
we get the following approximations: Z = −2.1, ρ = 0.6 (40% of expected

improvement).
tp = µ + Z × σ = 20000 − 2100 = 17900
C
Problem 9 σµ = 150000
10000 = 15 and Cp = 10 Using the Glasser’s graph for block
f
replacement (Figure 6) we get: ρ = 0.14, Z = −3.3.
(a)
tp = µ + Z × σ = 150000 − 33000 = 117000
(b)
1 − ρ = 0.86 or 86% of expected improvement.
(c)
2000 $
R-o-o-F cost= 150000 = 0.0133 km
$
Optimal policy cost= ρ×R-o-o-F= 0.14 × 0.0133 = 0.0018 km
Figure 6: Problem 9 Glasser’s graph
Problem 10
(a) One of the appropriate models is described in section 2.4.2
Cp + Cf × H(tp )
C(tp ) =
tp
(b) The most convenient way of solving the problem with the provided
information is to use Glasser’s graph for block replacement (Figure 7).
Figure 7: Problem 10 Glasser’s Block graph

10
Cf 150 µ 200
Cp = 100 = 1.5, σ = 10 = 20
From the graph Z = −2.3, ρ = 0.83 (17% of expected savings)
tp = µ + Z × σ = 200 − 23 = 177
Problem11
Cf 200 + 700 900
= = =3
Cp 200 + 100 300
and
µ 150
= = 10
σ 15
Using the Glasser’s Block replacement graph:
Z = −2.2, ρ = 0.45 (55% of expected improvement) tp = 150 − 33 = 117
Problems 12-16 OREST is a user-friendly piece of software designed espe-

cially for solving optimal replacement decision problems. The following screen
shots are meant to give the reader some idea on how to input data and use it
for analysis. At any point the user can access the help file by pressing ”Help”
button in the top right corner of the window.
Figure 8: OREST screen shot
Figure 8 illustrates the main selection window of the program, where you
can choose one of the available options:
• Data Input (see Figure 9), where one can create/change components
• Trend Analysis
• Weibull Analysis, where statistical analysis can be performed and saved/printed

11
• Deterministic Replacement
• Age Preventive Replacement, where replacement decisions are made.
The main questions addressed in problems 12-16 are:

• Prepare the data for OREST
• Fit the Weibul model to data, determine the key parameters and perform
a certain analysis
• Given the ratio between preventive and failure replacement costs, find an
optimal replacement time
• Estimate a number of failures during a specified period of time under the
optimal policy
• Given a replacement policy, find associated expected costs
Here is how OREST can help the user to answer the above questions.
OREST deals with sets of data which are expected to contain independent
samples from the Weibull distribution (see Appendix 2). Essentially, in order
to qualify for that, elements of a set have to be independent. For this reason,
for example, cumulative times to failures will not do. However, the set of inter-
failure times is the one we can use (under the assumption of independence).
Fitting the data set to the Weibull model is done automatically upon press-
ing the correspondent button in the ”Weibull Analysis” window. Further analy-
sis can be performed using graphs of p.d.f., C.d.f, Reliability and failure rate
functions.
At time of creating a new component, values of preventive and failure costs
are fixed. Using this data, the optimal replacement policy can be obtained in
”Age Preventive Replacement” window. Note that every time an analysis is
performed the user has an opportunity to print the report.
12
Along with the optimal policy, the report contains optimal costs, and more
generally, a cost graph can be plotted illustrating total costs per unit of time
associated with different replacement policies. Using these data one can estimate
correspondent costs during some period of time by simply multiplying the cost
per unit time by the length of a period. Furthermore, one can find the expected
number of failure/preventive replacements by dividing the result by the cost of
failure/preventive replacement.
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SOLUTIONS MANUAL FORof CRCMAINTENANCE
Press/Taylor & Francis Group
REPLACEMENT AND
RELIABILITY THEORY AND APPLICATIONS 2ND EDITION
JARDINE
γ=0
η is kept constant
β=5
β = 3.44
β = 2.5
f(t)
β=1
β = 0.5
0
0 t
FIGURE A2.1 Two-parameter Weibull functions.
A002x001.eps
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REPLACEMENT AND
JARDINE
β = 0.5
Hazard rate h(t)
β=5
β=1
0
0 t
FIGURE A2.2 Hazard rate of Weibull distribution.
A002x002.eps
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REPLACEMENT AND
JARDINE
γ=0
β = 2.5
η = 10
γ=0
β = 2.5
f(t)
η = 15
0
0 t
FIGURE A2.3 Two Weibull distributions with identical location and shape parameters but differ-
ent scale parameters.
A002x003.eps
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REPLACEMENT AND
JARDINE
f (t)
0
0 t
FIGURE A2.4 A Weibull distribution with γ > 0.
A002x004.eps
SOLUTIONS MANUAL FOR MAINTENANCE REPLACEMENT AND
Courtesy of CRC Press/Taylor & Francis Group
JARDINE
Estimation point
Test number Article and source Sample size
Date Type of test Shape β
µ µ Characteristic life η
β Minimum life γ
99.9
99
90
70
η estimator
50
30
20
10
Cumulative per cent. failure
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1
Age at failure
FIGURE A2.5 Two-cycle Weibull paper.
A002x005.eps
SOLUTIONS MANUAL FOR
Courtesy of CRCMAINTENANCE REPLACEMENT AND
JARDINE
Estimation 60% 1.2
point
pµ
^
β
Item: lamps
99.9
99
90
60%
80
70
63.2
50
40
30
20
10
2
1
.5
^ =43 h
η
.2
^ = 40 h
µ
.1
1 5 10 50 100
Age (h)
FIGURE A2.6 Weibull plot of lamp failure data.
A002x006.eps
JARDINE
Item: motor
99.9
99
90
80
70 63.2
50
40
30
20
10
2
1
.5
.2
.1
100 1000 10,000
Age (h)
FIGURE A2.7 Weibull plot of motor failure data.
A002x007.eps
JARDINE
Item: motor (3-parameter Weibull model with ^γ = 375 h)
99.9
99
90
80
70
63.2
50
40
30
20
10
2
1
.5 ^
η = 2120
.2
.1
100 500 1000 5000 10,000
Age – ^γ (h)
FIGURE A2.8 Weibull plot of adjusted motor failure data.
A002x008.eps
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REPLACEMENT AND
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( ( (
( ((
0.32 1.32
1.32 t − 375 t − 375
f (t ) = exp − for t ≥ 375
2120 2120 2120
f (t)
63.2%
0
γ Time
η = 2120
“η” = 2495
FIGURE A2.9 Probability density function of motor failure time.
A002x009.eps
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REPLACEMENT AND
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b
F(t)
t1 t2 t3 t
FIGURE A2.10 A nonlinear Weibull plot.
A002x010.eps
JARDINE
Item: motor
99.9
99
90
80
c 70 63.2
50
40
30
20
b
10
a
2
1
.5
.2
.1
100 1000 10,000
t1 t2 t3
Age (h)
FIGURE A2.11 Weibull plot of motor failure time: estimation of γ.
A002x011.eps
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REPLACEMENT AND
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Weibull plot
F(t)
95% rank of the ith failure time
A point determined from 5% rank
Median rank of the ith failure time
A point determined from 95% rank
5% rank of the ith failure time
Time of the ith failure
Time
FIGURE A2.12 Determining confidence interval of a Weibull plot: method 1.
A002x012.eps
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REPLACEMENT AND
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95% rank of t5
F(t)
Weibull plot
Median rank of t5
5% rank of t5
In this example, the data set

consists of 5 failure times: t1 to t5
t1 t2 t3 t4 t5 Time
FIGURE A2.13 Determining confidence interval of a Weibull plot: method 2.
A002x013.eps
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99.9
99
95
90
80
70
50
40
30
20
10
5
4
3
2
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
FIGURE A2.14 Weibull plot of battery failure time: 90% confidence interval of F(t).
A002x014.eps
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REPLACEMENT AND
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99.9
99
95
90
80
70
50
40
30
20
10
5
4
3
2
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
FIGURE A2.15 Weibull plot of battery failure time: 90% confidence interval of B20.
A002x015.eps
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REPLACEMENT AND
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Hypothesized distribution
F(t) ^
F(ti ) – F(ti )
F(ti )
^
F(ti)
^
F(ti ) – F(t i–1)
^
F(ti–1)
t
ti–1 ti
FIGURE A2.16 K-S goodness-of-fit test.
A002x016.eps
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FIGURE A2.17 Screen dump of WeibullSoft.
A002x017.tif
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1 10 100 1000
F(t) 1
0.1
0.01
Time to failure, t
FIGURE A2.18 Weibull plot of the failure data given in Table A2.11.
A002x018.eps
JARDINE
A F C A–F–C
W
A is the number of operating items at the beginning of the class interval
F is the number of failures in the class interval
C is the number of suspensions in the class interval
FIGURE A2.19 Data in a class interval.
A002x019.eps
JARDINE
89 F=9 C=5 75
0 1
9 9
h(t) · W = = = 0.110
(89 + (89 –9 –5))/2 82
FIGURE A2.20 Data in the first class interval.
A002x020.eps
JARDINE
Estimation point
Test number 0.93 Article and source Sample size N
Date Type of test Shape β

Pµ Mean µ Characteristic η
life
β Minimum life γ
99.9
99
90
70
η estimator
50
30
Cumulative percent failure
20
10
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1
Age at failure (weeks)
FIGURE A2.21 Weibull plot of the sugar feeder failure data.
A002x021.eps
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REPLACEMENT AND
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F(t) Mode B
Modes
combined
FA(t) + FB(t) – FA(t) × FB(t)
FA(t)
FB(t)
Mode A
t
FIGURE A2.22 Weibull plots of competing failure mode data.
A002x022.eps
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REPLACEMENT AND
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Weibull hazard × 2 logarithmic cycles
0 Shape parameter 1 2 3
1 Probability, % 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 99 99.999.99
1
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
1
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
1
1 10 100 1000
Cumulative hazard %
FIGURE A2.23 Two-cycle hazard paper for Weibull distributions.
A002x023.eps
JARDINE
β = 2.09
Weibull hazard × 2 logarithmic cycles
0 Shape parameter 1 2 3
1 Probability, % 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 99 99.999.99
1
9
8
7
6
5 Estimation
4 point
3
2
Failure time
1
9
8
7
6
5 η = 108.8
4
3
1
1 10 Cumulative hazard % 100 1000
FIGURE A2.24 Hazard plot of data shown in Table A2.13.
A002x024.eps
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t3
Time to failure
t2
t1
// //
0 a b c
Cumulative hazard (%)
FIGURE A2.25 Nonlinear hazard plot.
A002x025.eps
JARDINE
End of observation
0 t1 t2 ti–1 ti tn–1 tn
t1 ti Running time
tn
T
FIGURE A2.26 Time-terminated test data.
A002x026.eps
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REPLACEMENT AND
JARDINE
Running time
0 15 42 74 117 168 233 410
15 27 32 43 51 65 177
Interfailure time
7
N(t)
6
4 A happy system
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Running time, h
FIGURE A2.27 Failure data of machine H.
A002x027.eps
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REPLACEMENT AND
JARDINE
Running time
0 177 242 293 336 368 395 410
177 65 51 43 32 27 15
Interfailure time
7
N(t)
6
2
A sad system
1
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Running time, h
FIGURE A2.28 Failure data of machine S.
A002x028.eps
JARDINE
Failures
Engine
new
8 26 64 87 106 120
Time (months)
FIGURE A2.29 Engine failure pattern.
A002x029.eps

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SOLUTIONS MANUAL FOR MAINTENANCE REPLACEMENT AND RELIABILITY

THEORY AND APPLICATIONS 2ND EDITION JARDINE

SOLUTIONS MANUAL FOR MAINTENANCE REPLACEMENT AND RELIABILITY THEORY

Chapter 2: Component Replacement Decisions

Month Productivity Losses Replacement Total Cost Average Cost

C R(t )+C (1−R(t ))

M (tp ) × (1 − R(tp )) = zf (z) dz = R02 2×z10 dz R , tp ∈ [0..2]

After substitutions, the suggested formula gives:

Clearly, preventive replacement after 4 months of operation is the most prefer-

Problem 5 For the uniform distribution over [0..20000]

Similarly to the previous problems,

Problem 6 Weibull paper analysis (Figure 1) gives estimations

Figure 1: Problem 6 Weibull plot

Using the Γ function table (see Appendix 7) and the formula

σ 2 = (55000)2 × [1.1765Γ(1.1765) − Γ2 (1.5882)] = 3025 × 106 × (1.0883 − 0.796) =

Figure 2: Problem 6 Glasser’s graph

According to the graph ρ = 0.92, which means 8% of expected improvement,

tp = µ + Z × σ = 49000 − 0.6 × 29753 = 31148

Problem 7 Firstly, sort the data in increasing order

Hours 80 100 115 130 150 170 200

Figure 3: Problem 7 Weibull plot

Figure 4: Problem 7 Glasser’s Block graph

Secondly, it is reasonable to assume that the data belongs to the Weibull

Figure 5: Problem 7 Glasser’s Age Graph

From Figures 4 and 5: Z = −1.5, ρ = 0.36, tp = 136.8 − 1.5 × 50.75 = 60.68

we get the following approximations: Z = −2.1, ρ = 0.6 (40% of expected

replacement (Figure 6) we get: ρ = 0.14, Z = −3.3.

1 − ρ = 0.86 or 86% of expected improvement.

Figure 6: Problem 9 Glasser’s graph

(a) One of the appropriate models is described in section 2.4.2

Figure 7: Problem 10 Glasser’s Block graph

From the graph Z = −2.3, ρ = 0.83 (17% of expected savings)

Z = −2.2, ρ = 0.45 (55% of expected improvement) tp = 150 − 33 = 117

Problems 12-16 OREST is a user-friendly piece of software designed espe-

Figure 8: OREST screen shot

• Weibull Analysis, where statistical analysis can be performed and saved/printed

Figure 9: OREST screen shot

The main questions addressed in problems 12-16 are:

Figure 10: OREST screen shot

Figure 11: OREST screen shot

FIGURE A2.4 A Weibull distribution with γ > 0.

Test number Article and source Sample size

Date Type of test Shape β

FIGURE A2.5 Two-cycle Weibull paper.

A point determined from 5% rank

Median rank of the ith failure time

A point determined from 95% rank

5% rank of the ith failure time

Time of the ith failure

In this example, the data set

FIGURE A2.17 Screen dump of WeibullSoft.

Test number 0.93 Article and source Sample size N

Date Type of test Shape β

FIGURE A2.24 Hazard plot of data shown in Table A2.13.

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

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