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Meccanica (2008) 43: 567–576

DOI 10.1007/s11012-008-9133-7

Statistical analysis of HDPE fatigue lifetime


Rabia Khelif · Alaa Chateauneuf · Kamel Chaoui

Received: 29 June 2007 / Accepted: 23 January 2008 / Published online: 3 April 2008
© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Abstract Fatigue lifetime of HDPE structures such as Keywords Polyethylene · Fatigue · Data scatter ·
pipes is recognized to show a large scatter. This study Tensile strength · Lifetime distribution
aims to compare different statistical methods and dis-
tributions, in order to give convenient modeling of ten-
sile and fatigue test results of commercially available 1 Introduction
polyethylene compression molded sheets. The median
rank, the maximum likelihood and the Kolmogorov- Polyethylene pipes are extensively used for the trans-
Smirnov fitting are compared for the estimation of portation and distribution of natural gas, with over
Weibull parameters. The choice of the best distribu- 90% of the new piping installations using High Den-
tion to fit fatigue lifetime is discussed on the basis of sity Polyethylene (HDPE). One striking example
the goodness-of-fit results. It is found that whether the that highlights the importance of controlling HDPE
three-parameter distributions of Weibull and lognor- strength can be found in the aftermath investigations of
mal types are suitable for lifetime prediction, the two- the Kobe earthquake in 1995 during which many fires
and explosions from damaged gas pipelines caused
parameter Weibull is more conservative for probabilis-
considerable damage to life and properties [1].
tic fatigue design.
However, there are few indications on HDPE pipe
fatigue resistance especially under extreme service
conditions. In addition to internal and external pres-
R. Khelif () sures, the HDPE gas pipelines are subjected to dete-
LaMI—UBP & IFMA, Campus de Clermont-Ferrand, rioration processes such as creep, fatigue damage and
BP 265, 63175, Aubière Cedex, France crack growth. In spite of the apparently simple struc-
e-mail: rabia.khelif@ifma.fr
ture, the pipe analysis leads to very specific working
R. Khelif conditions: (i) The pipes often work under cyclic load-
e-mail: r_khelif@yahoo.fr
ing (fluctuations in internal pressure) with a significant
R. Khelif · K. Chaoui stress ratio; (ii) The pipes accumulate a high amount of
LR3MI, Mechanical Engineering Dept., Badji Mokhtar energy in the fluid under pressure, which is to say in
University, BP 12, Annaba 23000, Algeria the form of elastic strain energy. This stored energy
allows for initiation and development of tube crack
A. Chateauneuf
LGC—UBP, Complexe Universitaire des Cézeaux, growth over important lengths in different ways: brit-
BP 206, 63174 Aubière Cedex, France tle, semi-brittle and ductile failures; and (iii) The pipes
568 Meccanica (2008) 43: 567–576

present high probability of occurrence of defects in In the literature, many works have been undertaken
particular by their manufacturing process and assem- on fatigue crack growth. Accelerated fatigue tests
bly techniques. were performed on circumferentially notched HDPE
One of the most dangerous ruptures that a pipe may bars [6–8]. Kasakevich et al. [9] presented a compar-
undergo is the “stress cracking”. In practice, poly- ative study on crack propagation in HDPE under fa-
ethylene pipes do not support static loading exclu- tigue and creep loading conditions. This analysis is
sively, but they are also subjected to periodic and focused on the interaction between creep and fatigue
cyclic actions of constant, random or intermittent fre- and discusses the validity of fatigue as an accelerated
quencies, sometimes combined with creep. Hence, fa- laboratory test for long-term field failure under creep
tigue strength must be taken into account in any design conditions.
approach. The correlation between creep and fatigue
In general, fatigue can be defined as a phenomenon strengths, undertaken by Parsons et al. [10], showed
that takes place in components and structures sub- that MDPE was much more creep resistant than
jected to time-varying external loading and that man- HDPE, but MDPE pipes was much more sensitive to
ifests itself in the deterioration of the material ability strain rate in fatigue. The mechanisms of failure of
to carry an applied load that is well below the elastic externally notched sections of polyethylene pipe un-
limit. Today, the fatigue phenomenon is known to orig- der pressure have been investigated by Reynolds et
inate in the local damage of the material or, in other al. [11], who confirmed that the origin of branching
words, in the sliding of atomic layers. As indicated by fracture features lies in the localized shear deforma-
experimental observations, at low stress levels (high- tion.
cycle fatigue), the crack initiation period may con- An experimental investigation was designed by Ki-
sume a significant percentage of the usable fatigue life, ass et al. [12] to establish the distribution of mechan-
whereas at high stress amplitude (low-cycle fatigue), ical properties throughout a HDPE gas pipe wall. The
fatigue cracks start to develop in the early cycles variability of mechanical properties within the pipe
[2–4]. wall revealed the complexity of hierarchical structure
Plastic pipes used for gas and water distribution in HDPE and such an approach is intended to con-
are continuing to be the subject of many studies that tribute in understanding pipe long-term behavior and
highlight various behavior aspects in terms of service associated brittle failure.
lifetime [5]. In order to allow for engineering design Unfortunately, the large majority of HDPE fatigue
and lifetime prediction, many tests of long-term be- studies concerns the crack propagation, which as-
havior such as fatigue, creep and environmental stress sumes that stress concentration and crack already ex-
cracking (ESC) are reported although this information ists. However, in most of pipeline parts, fatigue may
is still not sufficiently developed in the literature. The occur without any previously formed crack. In this
aim of dynamic fatigue tests is to quantitatively define case, fatigue produces accumulated material damage,
the endurance limit of polyethylene resins subjected which latterly leads either to crack nucleation or to
to periodic loading; the endurance limit is defined as large deformation, depending on the stress levels. In
the maximum amplitude which can be supported for fact, the total lifetime is the sum of both damage and
an infinite number of cycles without apparent rupture. propagation stages; in many cases the fatigue dam-
Long-term testing methods differ mainly according to age represents more than 90% of the overall fatigue
the type, the nature and the loading scheme. lifetime. For moderate and low stress variations, the
To describe the fatigue strength, Wöhler curves are damage time is much larger than the crack propaga-
the most common model for practical use and design. tion time. That is why, it is very important to consider
The log-scale leads to a straight line between the stress fatigue of uncracked specimens. Due to strong ran-
amplitude and the number of cycles to failure. When domness of the fatigue behavior, the statistical char-
crack is initiated, the analysis of crack growth history acterization of fatigue lifetime is an important issue in
shows that there is a log-linear relationship between the literature, where the final goal concerns structural
the apparent crack size and the lifetime. Also, there is safety problems. The analysis of fatigue data aims to
a linear relationship between the crack growth rate and determine the best statistical distribution and parame-
the crack length or the stress intensity factor range in ters of the relevant variables, allowing to better fit the
mode I (KI ) when plotted in a log–log scale. experimental observations.
Meccanica (2008) 43: 567–576 569

The most well-known and popular distribution is Table 1 Physical and mechanical properties of HDPE
the 3-parameter Weibull distribution function. Several Property Value
works have been carried out to characterize the life-
time distribution for metal structures, especially steel Density (kg/m3 ) 950
and aluminum. Schijve [4] compared three distribu- Water absorption (24 h basis) <0.01%
tion functions for metal fatigue structures, with atten- Thermal expansion factor (106 K−1 ) 100–200
tion to very low failure probabilities. He discussed Poisson’s ratio 0.46
the different practical problems for which statistics Friction factor 0.29
are important and the necessity to perform full-scale Rockwelll hardness (shore) D 60–73
service-simulation tests for realistic prediction. Tobias Elastic modulus (GPa) 0.5–1.2
et al. [13] proposed the use of the Maximum Likeli- Impact resistance, IZOD (J/m) 20–210
hood Method and a Bayesian analysis for the Weibull Yield stress (MPa) 15–40
parameters and the corresponding confidence interval.
Wu et al. [14] discussed the scatter of fatigue crack
growth for aluminum alloys, on the basis of new tests Table 2 Normalized specimen dimensions
confirming that material inhomogeneity is the origin Designation Dimension (mm)
of randomness. Unfortunately, no equivalent works are
actually available for HDPE fatigue statistical distrib- Width at the ends, w0 10
utions. Testing width, w 4 or 5
In this paper, a statistical study is carried out on fa- Thickness, B 5
tigue lifetime of HDPE, where different probabilistic Small radius, R 14
distribution models have been compared. The speci- Large radius, R0 25
men manufacturing scatter is also considered in the Length of the gauged part, L 30
test procedure. After characterizing the material ten- Initial free distance, D 58
sile strength, the fatigue tests are performed in order Overall specimen length, L0 115
to define the probabilistic S-N curves for HDPE. The References length G 25
statistical analysis allows us to determine the lifetime
distribution type and parameter to be used for safe de-
sign of systems.

2 Polyethylene specimens

The machining of test specimens is carried out from


300 × 300 × 5 mm sheets, purchased from Goodfellow
Co. of Lille (France), with the nominal characteristics Fig. 1 Specimen shape according to ISO 527
indicated in Table 1. It should be noted that the max-
imum operating temperature for this resin is between machining center of HURON type, allowing us to cut
55 and 120 °C. The temperature of deflection to heat the specimens in the plane (x-y) with a feed rate of
is 75 °C for 0.4 MPa and 46 °C for 1.8 MPa. 0.2 mm/rotation and a cutting speed of 60 m/min.
The geometry of test specimens is drawn from the
Standard NF IN ISO 527 (type 1BA), as indicated
in Fig. 1, with the dimensions given in Table 2. The 3 Fatigue testing
milling process is used for specimen machining, where
special care has been considered regarding the visco- The MTS 858 Elastomer Test System, shown in Fig. 2,
plastic behavior of such a material. During machining, has been used for fatigue testing, where the loading
it is necessary to reduce the maximum warping, which is applied by hydraulic actuators. It allows us to per-
has been produced by cutting out a series of strips of form fatigue tests in the range ±15 kN with frequen-
27 mm wide. The manufacturing unit is a three-axes cies up to 200 Hz. In order to describe the whole S-N
570 Meccanica (2008) 43: 567–576

Fig. 2 Fatigue testing machine


Fig. 3 Typical tested specimens for 550 N and 600 N
curve, 42 specimens have been prepared to be tested
under 6 stress levels, each with 7 tests. The HDPE a test frequency less of equal to 5 Hz ensures that hys-
fatigue life is characterized by applying a sinusoidal terical heating of polyethylene is low and thus, there is
loading of frequency 5 Hz with the load ratio R = 0.1. very little influence on the obtained lifetime.
Knowing that the HDPE elongation at rupture lies be- Figure 3 shows typical deformations undergone by
tween 500% and 1000%, the tests are carried out for the specimens. For high load amplitudes (more than
an elongation over 200% of the specimens. Having 500 N), the specimens break while for lower ampli-
the ultimate strength determined by static testing (i.e. tudes, they undergo large strains without rupture; this
33 MPa), it is possible to determine the force range could be explained by higher capacity for molecular
to be applied for fatigue tests. It has been chosen to chain reorganization under low and moderate strain
apply first a maximum force of 600 N (corresponding cycles.
to a nominal stress of 24 MPa for a 25 mm2 of cross- Table 3 gives the test results in terms of number of
sectional area, corresponding to 72% of the ultimate cycles at the specified elongation (defined as 200%);
strength), then to decrease it gradually. the data are censured at 1 million of cycles and the
As we could not automatically stop the testing at nominal stress is computed on the basis of the average
a given elongation under load control, the tests are cross-sectional width for each loading level. It is ob-
stopped when the machine elongation span is reached. served that the average curve presents the traditional
In practice, most of the specimens did not break at the form for thermoplastics. For example, at the load level
end of the test; therefore, the number of cycles is de- of 400 N, the number of cycles of 52105 corresponds
termined for the same elongation for all specimens, in to an elongation of 60 mm that is to say about 200% of
order to compare data with the same strain levels. Even the useful length. The elongation of 100% (i.e. 30 mm)
if the specimen did not break at the specified deforma- is reached at 46710 cycles; the difference in lifetime
tion, the remaining lifetime is not useful for practical is about 10%. Contrary to steel, there is no horizon-
use. tal asymptote to define the endurance limit σD . Even
beyond 106 cycles, the curve presents a small slope,
which is not surprising for thermoplastics.
4 Results and discussion The results of the statistical distribution of the 210
measured widths show a mean width of 5.432 mm and
Fatigue tests are now performed for six loading lev- a standard deviation of 0.208 mm; i.e. the coefficient
els: 300, 400, 450, 500, 550 and 600 N. At each level, of variation is 3.8%, which is conformal to practical
seven specimens have been tested. That makes 42 manufacturing tolerances. As the fatigue lifetime is
specimens of nominal thickness of 5 mm. The use of governed by the minimum width, the corresponding
Meccanica (2008) 43: 567–576 571
Table 3 Basic statistical parameters calculated starting from the 6 applied loads levels

Load (N) Stress (MPa) N1 N2 N3 N4 N5 N6 N7 Mean Std dev. COV

600 22.09 1433 3434 1968 289 3245 2022 1294 1955 1106 0.566
550 20.25 4771 3595 1667 2087 3832 2999 1428 2911 1239 0.426
500 18.41 11661 6829 10776 16321 14253 13906 4725 11210 4169 0.372
450 16.57 15743 50931 43715 84613 11667 22028 24954 36236 25707 0.709
400 14.73 52108 36287 35236 77527 43463 84991 41189 52972 20212 0.382
300 11.05 1000000 422484 475897 1000000 305815 201394 1000000 629370 357376 0.568

Fig. 4 Fatigue results and S-N curves

distribution leads to a mean value of 5.225 mm with a – Testing conditions (specimen alignment on the ma-
standard deviation of 0.109 mm (i.e. 2% of coefficient chine, adjustment of load and frequency, specimen
of variation); it can be seen that the specified width of heating, environment effects, etc.).
5 mm is satisfied as a minimum value for all speci- Figure 4 shows the test points in the S-N space. In the
mens. It is noted that the nominal stresses mentioned log-scale, the data fitting is carried out for linear and
in Table 3 correspond to the mean value of the speci- power functions, where the solutions are given by:
men width.
The coefficients of variation ranges from 37% to S = 35.6 − 1.85 ln(N ) (1)
71%, illustrating the very large scatter of fatigue re-
or
sults, contrary to static tensile tests. The scatter of the
fatigue results is accepted today as an integrated phys- N S 8.6 = 6.7 × 1014 . (2)
ical aspect of the phenomenon, whose origins depend
on [15]: As the number of tests is limited for each load level,
classical parameter estimates are not well adapted, as
– Material morphology (inclusions, structure hetero- they are valid only for large sample size. For this rea-
geneity, residual stresses, etc.); son, a complementary analysis is carried out to check
– Specimen integrity (differences in surface quality, the robustness of the parameter estimates as well as
dimensional tolerances, etc.); the confidence intervals at the level of 95%. Moreover,
572 Meccanica (2008) 43: 567–576
Table 4 Parameter estimates and confidence intervals by three different methods

400 450 500 550 600

Classical 52972 36236 11210 2911 1955


Std Deviation 7639 9716 1576 468 418
Conf. Interval 37998; 67944 17193; 55279 8122; 14299 1993; 3829 1136; 2774

Resample 52820 36284 11200 2913 1950


Std Error 7635 9767 1576 472 419
Conf. Interval 39321; 68857 19415; 56626 8017; 14070 2009; 3862 1141; 2793

Bootstrap 52964 36227 11208 2908 1959


Std Error 7068 8988 1458 429 388
Conf. Interval 39111; 66818 18610; 53843 8351; 14065 2068; 3748 1198; 2720

Fig. 5 Resampling and Bootstrap distributions for the lifetime at loading level of 600 N

the statistical analysis should take into consideration tion, as well as the confidence intervals for the differ-
the censored data at the loading level of 300 N, which ent loading levels. The confidence intervals are glob-
is carried out in this study on the basis of Bayesian ally narrower for the Bootstrap method. At the loading
likelihood function. Two methods are applied to take level of 600 N (i.e. 22.09 MPa), the comparison be-
account for small sample estimates: the resampling tween Resampling and Bootstrap distributions, illus-
technique consisting of re-evaluating the estimates by trated in Fig. 5, shows that the Bootstrap method gives
removing randomly one (or more) experiment(s) and
more regular lifetime distribution.
the Bootstrap method where a virtual distribution of
For reliability-based design purposes, it is neces-
10000 samples is generated from the initial sample by
sary to define an appropriate probabilistic distribu-
using the resampling technique. The Bootstrap tech-
nique has shown to give the narrowest confidence in- tion for fatigue lifetime. Usually, Weibull and lognor-
tervals for the given data. Moreover, the standard error mal distributions are proposed in the literature, but the
in this technique is lower than in the other methods. choice of appropriate distribution is far from being an
Table 4 shows the obtained mean and standard devia- easy task. Three methods have been compared: linear
Meccanica (2008) 43: 567–576 573
Table 5 Weibull parameter estimates by linear fitting

Load (N) 300 400 450 500 550 600


Stress (MPa) 10.04 11.32 14.30 15.58 18.56 22.75

β 1.600 2.732 1.496 2.354 2.312 1.228


η 733819 60270 41304 12900 3332 2378

Table 6 Maximum likelihood estimates for Weibull distributions

Load (N) 300 400 450 500 550 600


Stress (MPa) 10.04 11.32 14.30 15.58 18.56 22.75

β 1.400 2.774 1.5744 2.0311 2.167 1.0336


η 674110 54255 33 216 12147 3015 2173
K-S test 0.177 0.154 0.100 0.162 0.120 0.201

β 0.794 0.407 0.6786 0.826 0.821 2.5984


η 382050 17381 24623 5228 1700 2747
γ 201390 35236 11667 4725 1428 −481.7
K-S test 0.166 0.213 0.124 0.145 0.175 0.170

fitting on appropriate Weibull paper, Maximum likeli- trary to what could be expected, for most of the points,
hood estimate and Kolmogorov-Smirnov fitting. the two-parameter Weibull fits better the Kolmogorov-
Table 5 gives the Weibull distribution parameters Smirnov (K-S) test than the three-parameter distribu-
on the basis of the median rank method, allowing to fit tion.
a straight line in appropriate logarithmic scales. The In order to search for a better fitting, we have
median rank is computed by: compared six different distributions (Table 7): Nor-
mal, Lognormal, Three-parameter lognormal, Two-
ri − 0.3
F̂i = (3) parameter Weibull and Three-parameter Weibull. Un-
n + 0.4 less for normal and lognormal where the estimates
where ri is the rank of the number of cycles (Ni ) and n cannot be modified, the parameters of the other distrib-
is the total number of data (i.e. n = 7 in our case). The utions are searched by an iterative procedure allowing
points are then plotted as: ln(Ni ) versus ln(ln( 1 )). to minimize the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S) val-
1−F̂ i
The fitting of these points leads to the Weibull para- ues. In other words, the search is oriented towards the
meters. Whether the parameter η has decreasing evo- parameters that give the best fitting of the K-S test.
lution, the shape parameter β does not follow a spe- For two-parameter Weibull, Fig. 6 compares the
cific monotonic evolution (it could be considered to be distributions obtained by the different approaches, at
monotonic decreasing unless for loads 300 and 450 N, loading levels of 450 and 600 N. It seems that the
which is due to the large scatter of the fatigue data). It Median rank approach leads to the longest tail at the
is noted that the stresses mentioned in Tables 5–7 cor- right side; i.e. this method expects much longer life-
respond to the minimum value of the specimen width. times than the other methods. On the other hand,
Table 6 indicates the maximum likelihood esti- the Kolmogorov-Smirnov based fitting leads to larger
mates for two- and three-parameter Weibull distrib- probability drops for high fatigue lifetimes. The Max-
utions. For the two-parameter Weibull, the estimates imum likelihood seems to be between the two other
are more or less close to those obtained by the lin- situations. Concerning the lower distribution tails, the
ear fitting model; the shape parameter β is globally Maximum likelihood method seems to give more con-
lower for high loading levels (note that negative shift servative results than the other methods, which is very
parameter cannot have physical interpretation). Con- suitable for design purposes of HDPE structures.
574 Meccanica (2008) 43: 567–576
Table 7 Kolmogorov-Smirnov test based estimates of six different distributions

Distribution 300 400 450 500 550 600

Weibull (β, η, γ ) 0.8 0.5 0.75 2.2 2.1 1.5


350000 11000 20000 10000 2900 1500
200000 35000 11000 2000 100 500
K-S test 0.144 0.119 0.070 0.110 0.065 0.074

Weibull (β, η) 1.7 2.75 1.4 2.8 2.2 1.8


674000 53000 32000 12000 3000 2000
K-S test 0.146 0.135 0.073 0.099 0.066 0.113

Lognormal (m, σ, N0 ) 13.1 8.4 9.6 9.1 7.7 7.2


0.63 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.55 0.55
37000 35000 8500 1000 200 300
K-S test 0.145 0.137 0.0710 0.141 0.095 0.084

Lognormal (m, σ ) 13.188 10.821 10.289 9.25 7.89 7.36


0.6 0.3291 0.65 0.414 0.42 0.77
K-S test 0.148 0.237 0.172 0.138 0.155 0.156

Normal (m, σ ) 629370 52972 36236 11210 1955 1955


35738 20212 25707 4169 1106 1106
K-S test 0.238 0.252 0.241 0.139 0.176 0.190

Fig. 6 Comparison of different fitting approaches

In Table 7, the distributions are ordered according be noted that classical lognormal distribution is com-
to their goodness-of-fit. The three-parameter Weibull monly used for this issue.
gives globally the best fitting, but the difference Figure 7 compares the best three distributions
between the first three distributions: two-parameter (Weibull with two and three parameters and lognor-
Weibull, three-parameter Weibull and three-parameter mal with three parameters). Although the right-side
lognormal, is not very significant. Alternatively, log- tails are similar, very large differences are observed
normal and normal distributions are not convenient for for the left-side tails. That is why much care should be
fitting the fatigue lifetime of HDPE structures; it is to considered when choosing appropriate distribution in
Meccanica (2008) 43: 567–576 575

Fig. 7 Comparison of different lifetime distributions

Fig. 8 Fatigue lifetime quantiles at 10% for the different models

the reliability-based design and assessment of HDPE It can be observed that the Lognormal and Weibull
structures, especially for pressurized piping systems. with three parameters give almost the same quantile
For design purposes, it is recommended to define curve. The Weibull with two parameters leads to more
the lifetime quantiles at 10%. Figure 8 shows these conservative curve, which could be recommended for
design purposes.
10% fatigue curves for the three models: Lognormal
with two parameters and Weibull with two and three
parameters. The expression of these curves are as fol- 5 Conclusion
lowing:
In this study, a probabilistic characterization of HDPE
Lognormal 3P: N S 8.5 = 2.2 × 1014 , and fatigue lifetime has been carried out. The fatigue
strength shows very large scatter. An expression in the
Weibull 2P: N S 8.5 = 1.6 × 1014 , (4) power type form has led to more appropriate repre-
Weibull 3P: N S 8.6 = 3.2 × 1014 . sentation of fatigue data, compared to linear fitting in
576 Meccanica (2008) 43: 567–576

the log-scale. The statistical analysis has shown that 4. Schijve J (2005) Statistical distribution functions and fa-
fatigue lifetime cannot be suitably modeled by lognor- tigue of structures. Int J Fatigue 27:1031–1039
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Acknowledgements The authors wish to strongly acknowl- analysis of fatigue and creep crack propagation in high den-
edge the Franco-Algerian cooperation program (Program BAF) sity polyethylene. Polymer 31(3):435–439
for financially supporting this PhD work. The experimental 10. Parsons M, Stepanov EV, Hiltner A, Baer E (2000) Cor-
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